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Sintering effects on NpO 2 grain size and morphology: The role of precursor Np phase

Neptunium dioxide (NpO 2 ) is a key phase in nuclear material processing as a target material for the production of plutonium-238 ( 238 Pu) and has been historically synthesized via the calcination of a Np oxalate precursor. Alternative synthesis methods for NpO 2 are now more prevalent, necessitating their study and comparison with the more common oxalate route. The purpose of this work was to investigate the microstructural properties of NpO 2 synthesized from a nitrate-based Np precursor phase via the assessment of NpO 2 particle size and morphology as a function of calcination temperature and time. Scanning electron microscopy (SEM) was used to probe the primary grain size and morphology of NpO 2 after calcination at temperatures ranging from 700 to 1100 °C and hold times ranging from 1 to 10 h. Post-image analysis using ImageJ software enabled the quantification of mean particle diameter. This analysis indicated that particle diameter increases with both increasing calcination temperature and hold time. Primary particles were shown to be clumped in irregular patterns into the overall rough, blocky aggregates, but this macroscopic morphology was not affected by calcination time or temperature. Although trends in primary grain size of NpO 2 were consistent with available literature from other Np precursor phases, the macroscopic morphology of the NpO 2 aggregates was quite different than reported for other precursors. Through comparison with historical literature on Np oxalate, this work emphasizes the importance of Np precursor on the physical properties of NpO 2 .

38 RADIATION CHEMISTRY, RADIOCHEMISTRY, AND NUCLEA

Improved nylon polymerization using amide diads

Nylons, a major class of synthetic polyamides, are widely used due to their excellent mechanical strength, thermal stability, and chemical resistance. Conventional nylon production relies on the polymerization of lactams or stoichiometric nylon salts. However, applying these approaches to unconventional precursors such as bio-derived glutaric acid produces polymers with low molecular weight and limited applications. To address these challenges, we demonstrated that chemically-synthesized nylon diads enable the production of higher-molecular-weight polyamides compared with traditional salts. We then identified a biosynthetic approach using amide synthetases to convert unprotected bifunctional substrates into nylon-relevant diads. Using a cofactor regeneration system, enzymatic diad synthesis was scaled to produce sufficient material for laboratory-scale characterization and solid-state polymerization. Amide synthetases demonstrated broad substrate scope, catalyzing the regioselective assembly of diverse nylon-relevant diacids, diamines, and ω-amino acids. This strategy offers a novel route to synthesize challenging nylon monomers and advances production of bioderived nylons.

Qian, Liangyu [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL

Decarbonized cement blends

Various embodiments include cementitious compositions with low levels of embodied greenhouse gas emissions, in particular carbon dioxide, as a result of its production and/or use compared to conventional cementitious materials, such as portland cement. Various embodiments include any cementitious material or materials with low embodied carbon, as well as any material produced using this cement.

Benck, Jesse D.

Europa Propulsion Valve Seat Material Testing

The Europa mission and spacecraft design presented unique challenges for selection of valve seat materials that met the fluid compatibility requirements, and combined fluid compatibility and high radiation exposure level requirements. The Europa spacecraft pressurization system valves will be exposed to fully saturated propellant vapor for the duration of the mission. The effects of Nitrogen Tetroxide (NTO) and Monomethylhydrazine (MMH) propellant vapors on heritage valve seat materials, such as Vespel SP-1 and Polychlorotrifluoroethylene (PCTFE), were evaluated to determine if an alternate material is required. In liquid system applications, Teflon is the only available compatible valve seat material. Radiation exposure data for Teflon in an air or vacuum environment has been previously documented. Radiation exposure data for Teflon in an oxidizer environment such as NTO, was not available, and it was unknown whether the effects would be similar to those on air-exposed samples. Material testing was conducted by Marshall Space Flight Center (MSFC) and White Sands Test Facility (WSTF) to determine the effects of propellant vapor on heritage seat materials for pressurization valve applications, and the effects of combined radiation and NTO propellant exposure on Teflon. The results indicated that changes in heritage pressurization valve seat materials' properties rendered them unsuitable for the Europa application. The combined radiation and NTO exposure testing of Teflon produced results equivalent to combined radiation and air exposure results.

Brad M Addona

Outgassing Characterization of Common Trash Items for Disposal By Nanoracks Airlock on the International Space Station

The arrival of the Nanoracks Airlock to the International Space Station (ISS) has provided the ISS program the capability to dispose of common trash items. The concept of operations involved the crew bagging up those items into a trash bag and then utilizing the robotic arm and the airlock to jettison the trash bag. Because of the unknown thermal vacuum stability of some of the items, a molecular contamination concern was raised by the ISS program as the trash is exposed to vacuum upon the evacuation of air from the airlock and the robotic arm moving the airlock to its jettison location. In order to characterize the representative outgassing rates for ISS trash, thermal vacuum testing was performed at White Sands Test Facility. Trash was sorted into a “lower” outgassing bag and a “mixed” bag. The “mixed” trash bag contained more items that were suspected to be not vacuum stable. Load cells were chosen as the primary means for measuring mass loss. A sharp decay in the outgassing rate was observed in the first 30 minutes followed by a slower decay. As expected, the “mixed” bag lost more mass. While Quartz Crystal Microbalances (QCMs) are often utilized to measure long term outgassing rates and the sticking coefficients of contaminants at different operating temperatures for vacuum stable materials, these measurements proved difficult due to the amount and the inclusion of materials with suspect thermal vacuum stability. Because of high rates of material outgassing, the facility was unable to maintain the CQCM temperature setpoint of 80 K QCMs.. The QCMs operating at the warmer temperatures also saturated on occasion due to high levels of condensed matter. Though testing was able to confirm high risk of outgassing contamination for the program, true sticking coefficients could not be determined, available measurements are provided herein.

Alvin Y Huang

Time evolution of a pumped molecular magnet—A time-resolved inelastic neutron scattering study

Introducing an experimental technique of time-resolved inelastic neutron scattering (TRINS), we explore the time-dependent effects of resonant pulsed microwaves on the molecular magnet Cr 8 F 8 Piv 16 . The octagonal rings of magnetic Cr 3+ atoms with antiferromagnetic interactions form a singlet ground state with a weakly split triplet of excitations at 0.8 meV. A 4.6 tesla field was applied to tune the splitting between two members of the triplet excited level |1$\rangle$ ↔ |2$\rangle$ to resonance with 105 GHz (0.434 meV) microwaves. The time-dependent occupations of the ground state |0$\rangle$, lower lying levels |1$\rangle$ and |2$\rangle$, and higher energy states |λ ≥ 3$\rangle$ were extracted during and after 20 s long microwave pulses incident along the (101) direction of a Cr 8 F 8 Piv 16 crystal held at 1.9 K. At significantly elevated spin temperatures, we found underpopulation relative to thermal equilibrium of |2$\rangle$ and spin-lattice thermalization time scales ranging from 1.6(2) s to 5.7(2) s depending on the power level. This contrasts with the relaxation time τ 1 (T → 0) = 27(5) 𝛍 s inferred for |2$\rangle$ from in situ Electron Spin Resonance measurements. By probing a broad range of excited states during intense microwave pumping, TRINS thus provides a first view of long lived excited states in a molecular antiferromagnet.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Water Observations of Flow/No-Flow for the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado (June-July 2025 and 2026)

This dataset provides multi-year, ground-truth visual observations of surface water flow/no-flow conditions within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado, collected during June and July of 2025 and 2026. In June and July 2025, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function Scientific Focus Area (SFA) and Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL) Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) campaign (further details are provided within the CHESS Project Description). We obtained 377 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. These ground-truth observations were collected to validate classification maps from remote sensing data and model results within the East-Taylor Watershed. In 2025, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using a field-based app for the CHESS Campaign (Zerion iForm). Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included information about visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, and beaver activity. For 2025 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2025_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2025_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg and .jpeg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2025_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2025_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). In June and July 2026, on-the-ground visual observations of flow/no-flow were collected as part of the Watershed Function SFA project. We obtained 365 water observations of flow/no-flow within the East-Taylor Watershed, Colorado. The 2026 observations focused on collecting repeat measurements at the 2025 flow/no-flow observation locations conducted as part of the CHESS campaign. These ground-truth observations were collected to understand differences in flow/no-flow in 2026, given the unprecedented 2026 drought in Colorado. In 2026, flow/no-flow measurements were collected using ArcGIS (Geographic Information System) Survey123. Within the field app, a water observation form was created to collect coordinates and metadata about the observation. Information collected for the water observation points included repeat information from the 2025 water observation effort, including visually-assessed streamflow presence/absence (standard question obtained from Colorado State University’s StreamTracker project), flow estimate, stream or ponded area width, canopy cover, manganese films, iron seeps, beaver activity, and a new metadata component of estimated stream depth (for select locations). For 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a data file with the water observations and coordinates (2026_Water_Observations.csv); (2) a Keyhole Markup Language Zipped (KMZ) with the water observation locations and metadata (2026_Water_Observations_Locations.kmz); (3) photos (.jpg) of the water observation points, organized by location, contained within 2026_Water_Observations_FieldPhotographs.zip file; and (4) water observation protocols and figures (2026_Water_Observation_Protocols.pdf). For 2025 and 2026 water observations, this dataset contains: (1) a location metadata file (locations.csv); (6) a file-level metadata (flmd.csv) file that lists each file contained in the dataset with associated metadata; and (7) a data dictionary (dd.csv) file that contains column/row headers used throughout the files along with a definition, units, and data type. CHESS Project Description: The Colorado Headwaters Ecological Spectroscopy Study (CHESS) comprised a multi-week airborne remote sensing and field observation campaign in the Upper Gunnison Basin, Colorado, conducted in June and July of 2025. Airborne remote sensing was conducted by the National Ecological Observatory Network Airborne Observation Platform (NEON AOP), concurrent with a field campaign run by the Rocky Mountain Biological Laboratory (RMBL), the Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory (LBNL) and SLAC National Accelerator Laboratory Watershed Function Science Focus Area (SFA), and NASA-JPL (Jet Propulsion Laboratory) Earth Surface Mineral Dust Source Investigation (EMIT) program. Between June 10 and July 18, 2025, the NEON AOP flight team collected high-resolution aerial imaging spectroscopy and Light Detection and Ranging (LiDAR) data over three domains: the Upper East River (CRBU), Almont Triangle (ALMO), and the Upper Taylor Basin (UPTA). In coordination with the flights, a field campaign acquired ground-truth observations, including observations of vegetation composition, foliar traits, forest demography, and subsurface properties in 18 core sampling areas within the domains. Additional surface water observations were taken at over 380 point locations. All CHESS campaign datasets can be found within the CHESS ESS-DIVE data portal: https://data.ess-dive.lbl.gov/portals/chess. This work was supported by the Watershed Function Science Focus Area at Lawrence Berkeley National Laboratory funded by the US Department of Energy, Office of Science, Biological and Environmental Research under Contract No. DE-AC02-05CH11231. 2026-09-02: This dataset was updated to include 2026 water observation measurements. The 2025 observation files were also updated to ensure a consistent file naming convention across water observation years.

2018 NEON and 2025 CHESS Campaigns

A method for battery activation

A technique to activate nickel cadmium batteries is described. The method shortened the time required for activation, eliminated the temperature rise in the batteries, and produced a voltage on the discharge that was better than when the C/20 was run for 48 hours during tests. Various methods of activation are described and evaluated. Results of alternate conditioning charge schemes are presented along with voltage/temperature characteristics for multiple level nickel cadmium battery chargers.

Halpert, G.

Scientific Highlights and Status of the Mars Science Laboratory Mission, Years 9 through 12

We present the scientific highlights and status from years 9-12 of NASA’s Mars Science Laboratory mission, with its Curiosity rover. A thermochemolysis-based sample analysis revealed a variety of organic molecules preserved in clay mineral-rich lake/lake margin deposits of the Glen Torridon region. The stratigraphically higher clay-sulfate mineral transition on Aeolis Mons was found to be associated with a lithological change from lacustrine to dry aeolian depositional environments. Water intermittently returned to the surface after the increase in aridity, including during the deposition of wave ripple strata which indicate a climate capable of sustaining an ice-free lake in the early Hesperian. The overlying Mg sulfate-bearing unit has both poly- and monohydrated Mg sulfates and is also enriched in iron carbonate of a purity consistent with chemical sedimentation and therefore atmospheric sequestration. A channel-incised canyon within Gediz Vallis and distal alluvial deposits recorded numerous fluvial and debris flow events after the deposition, lithification, and erosion of the clay- and sulfate-bearing units. Bright clasts found in Gediz Vallis canyon are composed of native sulfur. The investigation of the modern atmosphere and environment focused on the influence of the crater and mountain topography and captured high-altitude noctilucent and iridescent clouds. Radiation monitoring now spans an 11-year solar cycle. Rover systems and science instruments remain capable of addressing mission scientific objectives. All ten scientific instruments continue to return high-value data despite degradation of the Chemistry and Camera instrument’s high-voltage system, loss of multispectral imaging capability, and loss of active neutron spectroscopy. The mission has mitigated the loss of redundant brakes on two arm joints, additional wheel wear, and highly reduced capability of the redundant flight computer. Efficiency improvements in rover energy utilization and operations staffing have allowed the mission team to maintain a high level of productivity despite declining rover power generation and funding.

Mars

Multidisciplinary Design Optimization and Analysis of an Open Rotor Stage: Part 1

Successful design of open rotor propulsors requires effective analysis across multiple disciplines, including aerodynamics, acoustics, and structures. A viable design must not only be efficient but must also produce an acceptable level of noise and meet all static and dynamic structural requirements. For design and optimization, this is especially challenging because running high fidelity analyses is resource-intensive, and optimizing a design may require many thousands of cases to be analyzed. For this reason, the NASA team has applied design methodology that utilizes low-cost aerodynamic methods, machine learning models, and high-fidelity analyses when necessary. This includes standard two-dimensional methods such as throughflow analysis and quasi-3D blade-to-blade CFD, as well as some newly developed methods. Optimization using 3D CFD is necessary to maximize performance, and this is considered as well. All optimizations are carried out subject to structural constraints evaluated using finite element analysis. Doing this accurately requires a robust trunnion design, capable of pitching the blade between cruise and takeoff conditions while maintaining acceptable factor of safety. Hot to cold analysis must also be applied in order to correctly determine the as-manufactured shape. For acoustics, the unsteady pressures on the blade surfaces must be predicted, and this can be done either through full-annulus unsteady CFD or through a nonlinear harmonic method (NLH). NLH can run much faster, allowing some acoustic considerations to be made earlier in the design process. The design process is ongoing, and this presentation will review the current status and planned next steps. This part of the talk will focus on aerodynamic performance and be followed by a talk on structures and acoustics.

Design

MSFC Thermal Testing Lessons Learned Course. Section 3: Lessons Learned from Protoflight StarBurst Instrument Thermal Vacuum Test

MSFC thermal engineers will be presenting lessons learned while preparing and conducting thermal tests. This course will cover practical real world examples of thermal chamber and vacuum chamber testing from engineering development units to system level testing on flight hardware. Special topics include large scale testing preparation, requirement tailoring from parent documents, and cryogenic development testing.

thermal discipline

Energy filtering–induced ultrahigh thermoelectric power factors in Ni 3 Ge

Traditional thermoelectric materials rely on low thermal conductivity to enhance their efficiency but suffer from inherently limited power factors. Innovative pathways to optimize electronic transport are thus crucial. Here, we achieve ultrahigh power factors in Ni 3 Ge-based systems through an unconventional thermoelectric materials design principle. When overlapping flat and dispersive bands are engineered to the Fermi level, charge carriers can undergo intense interband scattering, yielding an energy filtering effect similar to what has long been predicted in certain nanostructured materials. Via a multistep DFT-based screening method developed here, we find a family of L1 2 -ordered binary compounds with ultrahigh power factors up to 11 mW m −1 K −2 near room temperature, which are driven by an intrinsic phonon-mediated energy filtering mechanism. Our comprehensive experimental and theoretical study of these intriguing materials paves the way for understanding and designing high-performance scattering-tuned metallic thermoelectrics.

Science & Technology - Other Topics

Study of Key 57 Ni ⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 58 Cu Resonances to Understand 44 Ti Nucleosynthesis in Supernovae

An important validation of nucleosynthesis models of core-collapse supernovae is the comparison of radioisotope predictions to abundances inferred from observations of 𝛾 rays emitted in remnants. One such isotope, 44 Ti, is especially sensitive to the 57 Ni ⁢(𝑝,𝛾)⁢ 58 Cu reaction rate. Despite this importance, no experimentally constrained rate exists for this reaction. It is thus crucial to determine this rate. GRETINA ORRUBA: Dual Detectors for Experimental Structure Studies (GODDESS) was used along with the first use of the Enge split-pole spectrograph at Notre Dame to measure structure properties of 58 Cu via the 58 Ni ⁢( 3 He,𝑡)⁢ 58 Cu reaction. Here, the combined analysis of these complementary data sets allows for precise determination of 58 Cu level energies, and spins are constrained from analysis of the 𝛾-ray decay. 44 Ti yields were found to change by over 25% compared to previous estimates in model calculations using the new experimentally constrained reaction rate.

energy levels

AutoBEM: A scalable framework for nationwide building energy simulation and retrofit evaluation in the United States

This paper presents AutoBEM, an integrated, automated framework for nationwide building energy modeling and retrofit evaluation in the United States. Unlike prior UBEM platforms that either rely primarily on representative stock sampling or operate at city scale, AutoBEM automates the generation of building-resolved, physics-based EnergyPlus/OpenStudio simulation models at national scale using GIS-derived geometry, prototype-based assumptions, and standardized scalable workflows. Leveraging the Model America dataset and high-performance computing, AutoBEM generates and simulates energy models for 122.9 million buildings, representing 97.8% of the U.S. building stock. These models are being made publicly and freely available as the Model America v1.0 (MAv1) dataset. AutoBEM supports detailed, building-level assessments of energy consumption, CO2 emissions, and post-processed anthropogenic heat emissions (AHE), and evaluates 151 energy conservation measures (ECMs) using localized utility pricing and building characteristics. In addition, AutoBEM incorporates both typical and future climate conditions through integration with Typical Meteorological Year (TMY) and Future TMY (fTMY) weather data derived from IPCC scenarios. In a case study of Phoenix, Arizona, AutoBEM identified several high-efficiency HVAC upgrades and selected envelope measures with short modeled payback periods (1.5 years) for certain building types and standards. Simulations under future climate scenarios (SSP5–RCP8.5) project an 11.3% increase in electricity use and a 32% reduction in natural gas demand by 2100, underscoring the need for climate-adaptive retrofit planning. By enabling reproducible, bottom-up, and location-specific analysis at scale, AutoBEM provides a step toward a national digital twin of the built environment and supports data-driven screening and planning for decarbonization, resilience, and energy equity.

Li, Hang [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000306001920)

Spatiotemporal Studies of Soluble Inorganic Nanostructures with X‐rays and Neutrons

This Review addresses the use of X-ray and neutron scattering as well as X-ray absorption to describe how inorganic nanostructured materials assemble, evolve, and function in solution. We first provide an overview of techniques and instrumentation (both large user facilities and benchtop). We review recent studies of soluble inorganic nanostructure assembly, covering the disciplines of materials synthesis, processes in nature, nuclear materials, and the widely applicable fundamental processes of hydrophobic interactions and ion pairing. Reviewed studies cover size regimes and length scales ranging from sub-Ångström (coordination chemistry and ion pairing) to several nanometers (molecular clusters, i.e. polyoxometalates, polyoxocations, and metal-organic polyhedra), to the mesoscale (supramolecular assembly processes). Reviewed studies predominantly exploit 1) SAXS/WAXS/SANS (small- and wide-angle X-ray or neutron scattering), 2) PDF (pair-distribution function analysis of X-ray total scattering), and 3) XANES and EXAFS (X-ray absorption near-edge structure and extended X-ray absorption fine structure, respectively). While the scattering techniques provide structural information, X-ray absorption yields the oxidation state in addition to the local coordination. Our goal for this Review is to provide information and inspiration for the inorganic/materials science communities that may benefit from elucidating the role of solution speciation in natural and synthetic processes.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH

Studies of laser stimulated photodetachment from nanoparticles for particle charge measurements

Determining nanoparticle charge is more challenging than that for microparticles due to change in the particle size during the synthesis substantial plasma property variations, and difficulties in visualizing individual particles, rendering conventional microparticle charge diagnostics ineffective in dusty plasma. In this work, we utilized laser-stimulated photodetachment (LSPD) to deduce the mean charge of nanoparticles. Nanoparticles were grown in an Ar/C 2 H 2 mixture using a capacitively coupled RF discharge and the LSPD induced changes in the electron current monitored by a cylindrical Langmuir probe. LSPD signals were obtained and analyzed across different dust growth phases. The prolonged decay of electron current pulses was attributed to the presence of residual negative ions, caused by the effective electrostatic trapping of these ions and the potential post—LSPD re-formation of new ones. The particle charge was estimated by combining the laser-stimulated photodetachment signal from the probe with the dust density obtained from laser-light extinction using the measured nanoparticle size distribution. For a nanoparticles size range of approximately 100–250 nm and mean diameter of $d$ p ∼154.37 nm, the effective mean charge was estimated to be $\langle$$Q$$\rangle$ d $≈$ 37 elementary charge units. The measured charge values are lower than those predicted by orbital motion limited theory, which may be attributed to significant electron depletion in the nanodusty plasma. LSPD results in Ar/C 2 H 2 nano-dusty plasma confirm the applicability of this method for estimating individual nanoparticle charges. However, it has also been demonstrated that electron detachment from residual background negative ions can influence the detachment current decay and must be carefully considered.

dust particle charge

Magnet-superconductor hybrid quantum systems: a materials platform for topological superconductivity

Magnet–superconductor hybrid (MSH) systems have recently emerged as one of the most significant developments in condensed matter physics. This has generated, in the last decade, a steadily rising interest in the understanding of their unique properties. They have been proposed as one of the most promising platforms for the establishment of topological superconductivity, which holds high potential for application in future quantum information technologies. Their emergent electronic properties stem from the exchange interaction between the magnetic moments and the superconducting condensate. Given the atomic-level origin of such interaction, it is of paramount importance to investigate new magnet–superconductor hybrids at the atomic scale. In this regard, scanning tunneling microscopy (STM) and spectroscopy are playing a crucial role in the race to unveil the fundamental origin of the unique properties of MSH systems, with the aim to discover new hybrid quantum materials capable of hosting topologically non-trivial unconventional superconducting phases. In particular, the combination of STM studies with tight-binding model calculations have represented, so far, the most successful approach to unveil and explain the emergent electronic properties of MSHs. The scope of this review is to offer a broad perspective on the field of MSHs from an atomic-level investigation point-of-view. The focus is on discussing the link between the magnetic ground state hosted by the hybrid system and the corresponding emergent superconducting phase. This is done for MSHs with both one-dimensional (atomic chains) and two-dimensional (atomic lattices and thin films) magnetic systems proximitized to conventional s-wave superconductors. We present a systematic categorization of the experimentally investigated systems with respect to defined experimentally accessible criteria to verify or falsify the presence of topological superconductivity and Majorana edge modes. The discussion will start with an introduction to the physics of Yu–Shiba–Rusinov bound states at magnetic impurities on superconducting surfaces. This will be used as a base for the discussion of magnetic atomic chains on superconductors, distinguishing between ferromagnetic, antiferromagnetic and non-collinear magnetic ground states. A similar approach will be used for the discussion of magnetic thin film islands on superconductors. Given the vast number of publications on the topic, we limit ourselves to discuss works which are most relevant to the search for topological superconductivity.

Majorana states

Evolution of the Antarctic Ice Sheet from 2000–2300 and beyond: model sensitivity and uncertainty analysis using MPAS-Albany Land Ice

We present a description of the Antarctic Ice Sheet model configuration submitted to the ISMIP6-Antarctica-2300 experiment using the MPAS-Albany Land Ice model, along with three new sets of simulations: (1) a set of extended simulations to 2500 for three forced experiments and to 2775 for the control experiment; (2) a sensitivity analysis of our model configuration to parameters controlling basal sliding and sub-shelf melt, and to model structural choices including the choice of the energy and stress balances; and (3) a 72-member ensemble run on graphics processing units (GPUs) and analysis of variance to determine the primary sources of uncertainty in our ice-sheet model projections. Our extended simulations predict rapid retreat beginning after 2300 for SSP1-2.6 forcing and after 2500 for present-day (control) forcing, primarily in the Amundsen Sea Embayment. We find that varying the sub-shelf melt parameter between the 5th to 95th percentile values for a mean-Antarctic calibration target results in an up to ∼ ± 40 % change in sea-level contribution relative to our baseline simulations that used the median value. Using a linear basal sliding law reduces sea-level contribution by 51 %–73 % relative to our baseline nonlinear sliding law with an exponent of 1/5. When using basal sliding law exponents of 1/3 and 1/10, the overall difference from our baseline simulations at 2300 is on the order of 10 %. The Amundsen Sea Embayment region displays a strongly non-linear dependence of mass loss on the sliding law exponent, with no discernible relationship between the sliding law exponent and the mass loss by 2300, while the sectors feeding the Ross and Filchner-Ronne ice shelves exhibit more mass loss with a more-plastic sliding law. Our model fidelity sensitivity experiments reveal a 9 %–31 % increase in sea-level contribution when using a depth-integrated stress balance approximation relative to our three-dimensional solver, while using a fixed-in-time temperature field increases sea-level contribution by 14 %–88 % relative to two thermomechanically coupled configurations. Our 72-member ensemble and analysis of variance show that the uncertainty in long-term projections is dominated by the choice of Earth system model forcing and the presence or absence of hydrofracture forcing, rather than uncertainty in sliding and sub-shelf melt parameters.

58 GEOSCIENCES