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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

WEC Irradiation Can Thermal Testing Report

With renewed interest for the next generation of small modular reactors and space-based nuclear reactors, metal hydrides have been a focus of research for moderating materials to reduce the need for highly enriched fuel to maintain small core sizes. Yttrium hydride (YH) is an attractive candidate for these metal hydrides due to its ability to retain hydrogen at elevated temperatures as well as the low neutron absorption cross section of yttrium metal. Given the necessity for reactors to operate at elevated temperatures for extended periods of time, understanding hydrogen retention in moderator channels in simulated operating thermal conditions is paramount in predicting reactor performance and the long-term stability of YH. Additionally, coating strategies on the moderator encapsulating will be explored to ascertain if it aids in retention of hydrogen within the capsule and moderator.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Large Bore Rabbit Capsules in Support of BWR Cladding Irradiations in HFIR

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is an ideal tool for materials irradiation testing because of its intense steady-state neutron flux. Many programs take advantage of HFIR’s central flux trap for irradiation experiments using capsules, also known as rabbits, to support advanced materials development and reactor design. The facility that makes up the HFIR flux trap has recently undergone a design change that increases the HFIR primary coolant volumetric flow rate by removing restrictions in the system. As a result, the usable cross-sectional area within the facility increased, opening the door to increase the cross-sectional area of the rabbit capsules that fill the facility. This report documents a new large-diameter rabbit housing that increases the usable volume within the rabbit capsule by 22.6%. However, challenges arise with increasing the capsule size, such as establishing a new maximum capsule operating pressure and determining the thermal-hydraulic characteristics. This report addresses those challenges with previously adopted HFIR safety methods. The rupture pressure of the rabbit housings is demonstrated while verifying that capsule swelling during and after rupture will not block coolant flow. Then, a safety factor is applied to ascertain an administrative operating pressure. Additionally, the thermal-hydraulic performance of the HFIR facility filled with large-diameter rabbit capsules is shown to not violate previously determined safety criteria. Next, heat transfer coefficients are determined for use in design calculations. Furthermore, this report gives an example of internal configurations for the new, larger rabbit capsules that use relevant boiling water reactor (BWR) cladding geometry. Finally, this report documents an example thermal design performance for a rabbit capsule containing six gauge-curved tensile tube specimens. The thermal performance gives predicted temperature distributions within the capsule and shows the expected temperature of the passive thermometers for post-irradiation temperature comparisons.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of Large Bore Rabbit Capsules in Support of BWR Cladding Irradiations in HFIR

The High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) is an ideal tool for materials irradiation testing because of its intense steady-state neutron flux. Many programs take advantage of HFIR’s central flux trap for irradiation experiments using capsules, also known as rabbits, to support advanced materials development and reactor design. The facility that makes up the HFIR flux trap has recently undergone a design change that increases the HFIR primary coolant volumetric flow rate by removing restrictions in the system. As a result, the usable cross-sectional area within the facility increased, opening the door to increase the cross-sectional area of the rabbit capsules that fill the facility. This report documents a new large-diameter rabbit housing that increases the usable volume within the rabbit capsule by 22.6%. However, challenges arise with increasing the capsule size, such as establishing a new maximum capsule operating pressure and determining the thermal-hydraulic characteristics. This report addresses those challenges with previously adopted HFIR safety methods. The rupture pressure of the rabbit housings is demonstrated while verifying that capsule swelling during and after rupture will not block coolant flow. Then, a safety factor is applied to ascertain an administrative operating pressure. Additionally, the thermal-hydraulic performance of the HFIR facility filled with large-diameter rabbit capsules is shown to not violate previously determined safety criteria. Next, heat transfer coefficients are determined for use in design calculations. Furthermore, this report gives an example of internal configurations for the new, larger rabbit capsules that use relevant boiling water reactor (BWR) cladding geometry. Finally, this report documents an example thermal design performance for a rabbit capsule containing six gauge-curved tensile tube specimens. The thermal performance gives predicted temperature distributions within the capsule and shows the expected temperature of the passive thermometers for post-irradiation temperature comparisons.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Prognostic analysis of high-flow nasal cannula therapy and non-invasive ventilation in mild to moderate hypoxemia patients and construction of a machine learning model for 48-h intubation prediction—a retrospective analysis of the MIMIC database

Background This study aims to investigate the clinical outcome between high-flow nasal cannula (HFNC) and non-invasive ventilation (NIV) therapy in mild to moderate hypoxemic patients on the first ICU day and to develop a predictive model of 48-h intubation. Methods The study included adult patients from the MIMIC III and IV databases who first initiated HFNC or NIV therapy due to mild to moderate hypoxemia (100 < PaO2/FiO2 ≤ 300). The 48-h and 30-day intubation rates were compared using cross-sectional and survival analysis. Nine machine learning and six ensemble algorithms were deployed to construct the 48-h intubation predictive models, of which the optimal model was determined by its prediction accuracy. The top 10 risk and protective factors were identified using the Shapley interpretation algorithm. Result A total of 123,042 patients were screened, of which, 673 were from the MIMIC IV database for ventilation therapy comparison (HFNC n = 363, NIV n = 310) and 48-h intubation predictive model construction (training dataset n = 471, internal validation set n = 202) and 408 were from the MIMIC III database for external validation. The NIV group had a lower intubation rate (23.1% vs. 16.1%, p = 0.001), ICU 28-day mortality (18.5% vs. 11.6%, p = 0.014), and in-hospital mortality (19.6% vs. 11.9%, p = 0.007) compared to the HFNC group. Survival analysis showed that the total and 48-h intubation rates were not significantly different. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model (internal and external validation set AUROC 0.878, 0.726) had the best predictive accuracy performance. The model Shapley algorithm showed Sequential Organ Failure Assessment (SOFA), acute physiology scores (APSIII), the minimum and maximum lactate value as risk factors for early failure and age, the maximum PaCO 2 and PH value, Glasgow Coma Scale (GCS), the minimum PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and PaO 2 value as protective factors. Conclusion NIV was associated with lower intubation rate and ICU 28-day and in-hospital mortality. Further survival analysis reinforced that the effect of NIV on the intubation rate might partly be attributed to the other impact factors. The ensemble AdaBoost decision tree model may assist clinicians in making clinical decisions, and early organ function support to improve patients’ SOFA, APSIII, GCS, PaCO 2 , PaO 2 , PH, PaO 2 /FiO 2 ratio, and lactate values can reduce the early failure rate and improve patient prognosis.

Fu, Wei↗
DOE OSTI2026

Influence of Oxygen Flow and Stoichiometry on Optical Properties and Damage Resistance of Hafnium Oxide Thin Films

Hafnium oxide (HfO 2 ) is predominantly used as a high-index material in multi-layer dielectric coatings for high-peak- and high-average-power lasers, but laser damage often initiates within the HfO 2 layers despite their wide bandgap. Oxygen deficiency during deposition can introduce vacancy-related sub-bandgap states and absorptive defects, lowering damage resistance. This study investigates how oxygen flow during HfO 2 deposition with ion beam sputtering (IBS) affects its stoichiometry, defect formation, and nanosecond laser-induced damage threshold (LIDT) and whether single-layer trends predict multilayer performance. Single layers were deposited at varying oxygen flows, characterized for optical and structural properties, and tested for the LIDT at 1064 nm and 355 nm. Increasing oxygen flow drove the layer toward near-stoichiometric HfO 2 , reduced the refractive index, and altered the density of surface pinhole-like features. The single-layer LIDT at 355 nm increased with oxygen, whereas the 1064 nm LIDT was comparatively less sensitive to oxygen flow, consistent with the wavelength-dependent roles of absorptive precursors and microstructural defects. In contrast, a HfO 2 -based high-reflector (HR) showed a higher LIDT at lower oxygen flow, indicating that the family of damage precursors changes between single layers and multilayers; in stacks, structural properties such as stress, gas entrapment and thermal dissipation may outweigh the isolated absorptive defects found in single layers. These results demonstrate that the optimal oxygen flow condition depends on both LIDT wavelength and film architecture. We identified, for single layers, a 15–35 sccm window for maximizing the 1064 nm LIDT and a high-flow optimum (45 sccm) for the 355 nm LIDT and, for 355 nm HR stacks, a distinct lower-flow regime (~10 sccm).

Optics and optical instruments↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Temperature Aquifer Thermal Energy Storage (HT-ATES) Projects in Germany and the Netherlands—Review and Lessons Learned

Aquifer thermal energy storage (ATES) is a concept that can help to address heating and cooling needs through the use of the subsurface as a seasonal thermal energy storage (STES) system. Over 2800 ATES systems have been deployed with storage temperatures typically below 25 °C and only a few with higher temperatures (>40 °C), which would increase the energy density and utility of the stored thermal fluids. Until now, only a few high-temperature aquifer thermal energy storage (HT-ATES) projects have been initiated and are still in operation. These HT-ATES projects have encountered a range of technical and non-technical challenges. This study reviews ten such projects: four in Germany and six in the Netherlands. The non-technical issues include public acceptance, a lack of regulatory framework for these systems, managing overlapping uses of the subsurface, managing changes with the providers and off-takers of thermal energy, and obtaining financing to implement these projects. Common technical issues include geological factors such as incomplete characterization of the subsurface and reservoir heterogeneity; geochemical issues such as mineral scaling, corrosion, and biofouling; lower than expected thermal recovery; and issues with system design and reliability. This review highlights benefits and challenges faced by HT-ATES projects with the goal to use the lessons learned to improve the siting, design, development, and operation of such systems. Recommendations include improved initial subsurface site characterization, use of coupled process models to optimize system design and predict system performance, cascaded uses of stored thermal energy to better utilize the stored heat, monitoring networks to provide feedback on system performance, and expanded system scale to allow for continued operation even when maintenance of some system components is required. Techno-economic modeling and risk analysis could be used to optimize such HT-ATES project design and identify key factors that will affect sustained economic viability. In addition, design flexibility is important for these systems to allow for changing conditions regarding the supply and demand of thermal energy. Adopting these findings should improve the performance and reduce the risks for future HT-ATES projects worldwide.

15 - GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

Predicting Li-ion Battery Performance for Impurity-doped NMC Cathodes Using Deep Learning

With the electric vehicle (EV) market expansion and the energy sector's shift towards electrification, the demand for battery metals, including lithium (Li), cobalt (Co), and nickel (Ni), is set to surpass supply. A critical knowledge gap exists in the purity standards for battery precursors and the impact of impurities on battery performance. Addressing this, our study employs a Deep Machine Learning (DL) based multi-objective optimization approach to interpret the relationship between metal impurities in domestic battery resources and their effects on battery performance. We analyze experimental data from Li-ion batteries with NMC (Nickel-Manganese-Cobalt oxide) cathodes over 1000 cycles, representing approximately ~6-8 months of operation, to establish a baseline of performance without impurities. Leveraging this data, we develop a Physics-Informed Deep Learning (PIDL) framework to extend our findings to cases that include metal impurities (e.g., Fe, Cu, Al) ranging from (0.001 - 0.01) %, respectively. By incorporating physics-based features, our PIDL model can accurately estimate the performance of NMC cathodes doped with various metal impurities to provide rapid design decisions. This research paves the way for informed decisions in Li-ion battery material design and optimization, ensuring the sustainable growth of the EV market and the broader energy sector.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Development of an In Situ Fission Gas Release Instrument for Fuel Sample Irradiations in the High Flux Isotope Reactor

Experimental measurement of gaseous fission product release with respect to temperature and burnup is a critical aspect of understanding nuclear fuel performance, validating predictive models, and qualifying new fuels. To measure this phenomenon in real-time, Oak Ridge National Laboratory has developed an instrument for measuring in situ fission gas release from small-scale fuel samples irradiated in the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR). The instrument uses a continuous flow of Heover the fuel samples to sweep gaseous fission products from a sealed capsule in the HFIR Be reflector to an instrument station adjacent to the reactor. The instrument station houses two high-purity germanium (HPGe) detectors that measure decay gamma rays from fission products passing through a room temperature dwell chamber placed over the detector crystal. The sealed capsules in the reactor are designed to modulate fuel sample temperatures between 700 and 1,100°C by changing the Ar/He gas mixture surrounding the capsules during irradiation. N-type thermocouples are incorporated into the capsule housing to record real-time fuel temperatures. The capsules are heated primarily by prompt gamma rays emitted from the HFIR core with minimal heat contributions from fission in the fuel samples to minimize temperature gradients in the specimens for separate-effects characterization of the material. This paper describes modeling of time-dependent nuclear heating and fission product formation in fuel samples, thermal characteristics of the in-core capsules, and expected gaseous fission product gamma spectra at the HPGe instrument station.

Mulligan, Padhraic L [ORNL] (ORCID:000000025826540↗
DOE OSTI2025

Fuel Bonding and its Impact on Axial Gas Communication Behavior in Light-Water Reactor Fuel Rods

Axial gas communication concerns the flow along the axial axis of nuclear fuel rods during ramp and loss of coolant accident (LOCA) conditions. During power ramps, the higher linear heat generation rate may cause fuel-to-clad gap closure that may prevent transport of released fission gases to the plenum. Upon reduction in power the gas then can communicate to the plenum. This phenomenon has been experimentally observed by short power dips during ramp experiments completed at the Risø reactor. At higher burnups it is observed that the UO2 fuel and Zircaloy cladding forms a chemical bond. This bond results in complete closure of the gap. When these high burnup rods are subjected to a LOCA, the bond has implications on both the mechanical response (i.e., ballooning) of the cladding and subsequent fuel relocation and axial gas communication. In the LOCA scenario, gas communication is of interest in two different regimes: 1) pre-rupture communication from the plenum towards the lower pressure ballooning area and 2) the post-rupture depressurization of the plenum to the external system pressure. In both regimes the presence of a fuel-to-cladding bond will impact the rate of depressurization. In this work we present a fuel-to-clad bonding model that is coupled to an existing axial gas communication model framework in the BISON fuel performance code. The effect of considering the bond on fuel performance modeling predictions is presented through comparisons to existing experimental data. Experiments considered include several rods from the Halden IFA-650 test series. An evaluation on a full-length rod that explores the combined effect of plenum size and bonding status on axial gas communication behavior is also presented.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Cluster Dynamics Modeling Needs for the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies Program

This milestone report aims to identify and assess the cluster dynamics (CD) modeling requirements within the Department of Energy's Office of Nuclear Energy (DOE-NE) Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program and to communicate these needs to the DOE-NE Nuclear Energy Advanced Modeling and Simulation (NEAMS) program. The goal is to ensure NEAMS is well-informed about the CD modeling requirements to support AMMT's mission of accelerating the development, qualification, demonstration, and deployment of advanced structural materials and manufacturing for nuclear energy applications. CD modeling is an essential tool for predicting the degradation of structural materials under irradiation, which is a key component of AMMT's accelerated qualification process. The AMMT program focuses on both additively manufactured and wrought structural alloys, such as laser powder-bed fusion 316H austenitic stainless steel, alloy 709, Haynes 244, and alloy 617. These materials require a generalized CD modeling framework to facilitate rapid model development and computational simulation. A flexible, generalized CD software, similar to the Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) finite element framework, would enable modeling of various cluster types, including defect clusters, defect-solute clusters, and multicomponent clusters, incorporating thermodynamics and kinetics parameters. Radiation effects, microstructural feature evolution, and multi-dimensional modeling are critical considerations for the CD model. The usability of the CD code should allow for easy modification and coupling with MOOSE-based simulations. Additionally, the software should adhere to Nuclear Quality Assurance-1 standards, include a testing suite for verification and validation, and be version-controlled within a national laboratory-managed Git repository. Benchmark problems are needed to assess code predictions and performance.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2025

Microstructural Characterization of AGR-2 TRISO-coated Particle Buffer, IPyC, and Buffer-IPyC Interfaces

Investigating the microstructural, mechanical, and chemical behaviors of Tristructural Isotropic (TRISO) fuel particles is vital for its qualification and use in advanced reactors. Central to the study of TRISO particles is understanding the silicon carbide (SiC) layer's ability to confine fission products, with failure mechanisms linked to chemical degradation following mechanical degradation of the buffer and IPyC layers. Research has been done to quantify the micro-tensile properties of the buffer, inner pyrolytic carbon (IPyC), and buffer-IPyC interlayer regions and their interactions within both irradiated and un-irradiated TRISO particles. Techniques such as atom probe tomography (APT) and transmission electron microscopy (TEM) have also been deployed to examine microstructural defects and fission product distribution in detail. The goal is to understand layer delamination, establish connections between microstructure and mechanical attributes, and inform computational predictions of fuel performance. This work may help refine predictive models of TRISO fuel behavior and facilitating its certification for use in advanced reactors.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

An Online Tool for Preliminary Design and Techno-Economic Analysis of District Geothermal Heating and Cooling Systems

District geothermal heating and cooling systems (DGHCS) have significant benefits for reducing energy consumption as well as building- and grid-level peak electric demand. Currently, no publicly available tools are available to effectively design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. GeoWISE was originally developed for preliminary design and techno-economic analysis of geothermal heating and cooling systems in an individual commercial or residential building. This paper introduces recent upgrades of GeoWISE that allow users to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of DGHCS. Several new features are implemented in GeoWISE to allow selection and specification of multiple new or existing buildings. A database of information for over 125 million existing U.S. buildings was used in GeoWISE that allows users easily locate existing buildings of interest based on street addresses, and optionally edit information of the buildings (e.g., footprint, vintage, principal functions, number of floors, window-to-wall ratio). Unique energy simulation models of the selected buildings are then automatically created using the Automatic Building Energy Modeling (AutoBEM) and EnergyPlus simulations are performed to predict thermal loads of the buildings. A simplified DGHCS is then designed and simulated to predict its energy use. A central borehole heat exchanger (BHE) of the DGHCS is sized using the RowWise algorithm of GHEDesigner to meet the thermal loads within user-specified land areas for installing BHE. The upgraded GeoWISE reports the needed capacity of heating and cooling equipment in each building, design of the central BHE, energy consumption reduction, and energy cost saving resulting from using DGHCS compared with conventional HVAC systems. A case study is showcased using the upgraded GeoWISE to design and conduct techno-economic analysis of a simplified DGHCS.

Prem Anand Jayaprabha, Jyothis Anand [ORNL] (ORCID↗
DOE OSTI2026

Preliminary Assessment for the Electric Load Shifting Potential of Integrating Thermal Energy Storage with Heat Pumps in Residential Buildings in Texas of United States

The widespread adoption of electric-driven heat pumps for heating and cooling is expected to significantly increase electric demand. Cooling electric demand will result in an increase in peak hours electric loads, placing additional strain on the grid during peak hours. This challenge, combined with the current rapidly increasing demand from data centers, exacerbates the electric demand duck curve problem. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) with heat pump can shift electric use for heating and cooling from peak to off-peak hours of the electric grid, which can help flatten the daily electric demand profile of a building. This paper presents a novel design that integrates heat pump with TES (HP-TES), which uses phase change materials (PCM). Heat pump charges TES by melting or freezing PCM during off-peak hours when there is no thermal demand from the building. TES is then discharged (i.e., by freezing or melting PCM) during peak hours to provide a more favorable heat source or heat sink for the heat pump to meet the thermal demand of the building with lower electricity use than conventional air-source heat pumps. Computer simulations were developed to predict the performance of HP-TES applied to a typical single-family house in the US. The building-level simulation results were scaled up to preliminarily assess the aggregated impacts of deploying HP-TES across all single-family houses in Texas of the United States, including reduction of peak demand of the electric grid.

Anees, Fady [ORNL]↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical and Machine Learning Approaches to Analyzing Pipeline Incidents in the United States (2010–2024)

This study applies machine learning methods to analyze natural gas pipeline incidents in the United States using the Pipeline and Hazardous Materials Safety Administration (PHMSA) Gas Distribution Incident Dataset (2010–2024). The dataset includes over 600 variables describing incident characteristics, infrastructure attributes, and contributing factors associated with unintentional gas releases. The objective is to assess whether these features can reliably predict the underlying cause of pipeline failures. Multinomial logistic regression and Random Forest models were developed to classify incident causes, including excavation damage, corrosion, equipment failure, and natural forces. Results show that excavation damage is both the most frequent and most predictable cause, with models achieving strong performance for this category. However, when excavation damage is excluded, model accuracy declines significantly, with some models performing near random levels. Across all approaches, severe class imbalance and limited variability in key predictors constrain predictive performance. Pipeline age and diameter emerge as the most influential variables, but they provide insufficient discriminatory power to distinguish among less frequent failure types. These findings indicate that non-excavation-related incidents are rare, heterogeneous, and weakly represented in the dataset, limiting the effectiveness of machine learning classification. Overall, this study highlights the structural limitations of the PHMSA dataset for predictive modeling and underscores the need for improved data balance and feature enrichment. The results reinforce excavation damage prevention as the most impactful strategy for reducing pipeline incidents.

03 NATURAL GAS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Physics-Guided Continual Learning for Predicting Emerging Aqueous Organic Redox Flow Battery Material Performance

Aqueous organic redox flow batteries (AORFBs) have gained popularity in renewable energy storage due to their low cost, environmental friendliness and scalability. The rapid discovery of aqueous soluble organic (ASO) redox-active materials necessitates efficient machine learning surrogates for predicting battery performance. The physics-guided continual learning (PGCL) method proposed in this study can incrementally learn data from new ASO electrolytes while addressing catastrophic forgetting issues in conventional machine learning. Using a AORFB database with a thousand potential materials generated by a 780 $\text{cm}^2$ interdigitated cell model, PGCL incorporates AORFB physics to optimize the continual learning task formation and training strategies to retain previously learned battery material knowledge. Finally, the trained PGCL demonstrates its capability in assessing emerging ASO materials within the established parameter space when evaluated with the dihydroxyphenazine isomers.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2026

An improved dataset for predicting mammal infecting viruses from genetic sequence information

There have been several attempts to develop machine learning (ML) models to identify human infecting viruses from their genomic sequences, with varying degrees of success. Direct comparison between models is problematic, because these models are typically trained and evaluated on different datasets with alternative data splitting schemes, features, and model performance metrics. In this paper we present a standardized dataset of mammal infecting and non-infecting viral pathogens, refined from the previous work of Mollentze et al. to include the latest literature evidence, roughly doubling the number of curated host-virus records available to the community, and new host target labels, primate and mammal. The new host labels were included for several reasons, including previous reports that classification performance is better at broader taxonomic ranks and the idea that there may be more data for primate infection that might serve as a suitable proxy for zoonotic potential and avoidance of false positives for human infection due to absence of evidence. On this dataset, we report the performance of eight machine learning models for predicting mammal-infecting viruses from their genomic sequences. We find that randomly assigning cases in our improved dataset to training/testing sets, when compared to the original assignments into training/testing in Mollentze et al., increases the overall average ROC AUC of prediction of human infection from 0.663 ± 0.070 to 0.784 ± 0.013, consistent with the reduction in phylogenetic distance between train and test sets (relative entropy change from 3.00 to 0.08). The broadest host category of mammal infection can be predicted most reliably at 0.850 ± 0.020. We share our improved dataset and code to enable standardized comparisons of machine learning methods to predict human host infections. Overall, we have presented preliminary evidence that classification of virus host infection is more tractable at higher taxonomic ranks, that unsurprisingly reducing the phylogenetic distance between training and test sets can improve predictive performance, that peptide kmer features appear to be harmful to out of sample model performance, and we are left with the question of whether models for virus host prediction can reasonably be expected to perform well in out of sample scenarios given the likelihood that viruses do not share a common ancestor. Consistent with this concern, when the data is resampled such that there is no overlap between viral families in training and test sets (relative entropy > 24), models perform no better than random chance at prediction of human infection regardless of whether kmers are included (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.08) or not (ROC AUC 0.50 ± 0.04).

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

Experiments on a vapor compression air conditioner with liquid desiccants for efficient dehumidification

Buildings require air conditioning systems that not only cool and dehumidify supply air but also provide sufficient ventilation to ensure indoor air quality and occupant comfort. However, standard recirculation systems-which introduce about a 10 % to 20 % fraction of outdoor air-often fail to deliver air that is precisely cooled and dry, particularly because 80-90 % of the ventilation cooling load is latent. Mixing humid ventilation air with recirculated indoor air increases the energy and costs required to condition the air to comfortable levels. Dedicated outdoor air systems (DOASs) are designed to handle this latent dominated ventilation load and thus need to have efficient humidity removal. Many cooling cycles can perform this task. Here we describe a liquid desiccant DOAS, which combines a vapor compression cycle and a liquid desiccant absorber and desorber pair. We present its performance at 26 operating conditions and a thermodynamic model which can accurately predict the moisture removal efficiency. The model's performance predictions have a mean percentage error of 2.5 % and a coefficient of variation of the root mean square error of 7.5 %. We also compare the performance of this vapor-compression-coupled liquid desiccant system with a standard vapor compression system with the same components but no liquid desiccant. For the 26 conditions tested in this study, this comparison shows that adding liquid desiccants lowers the required evaporator cooling load by 21 %, allows for 25 % lower compressor volumetric capacity, and 25 % lower electricity use. Future work will leverage this model to quantify the reduction in annual electricity use across different climates, including the need for a standard vapor compression system to reheat the air during some of the year.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2025

Explaining word embeddings with perfect fidelity: a case study in predicting research impact

The best-performing approaches for scholarly document quality prediction are based on embedding models. In addition to their performance when used in classifiers, embedding models can also provide predictions even for words that were not contained in the labelled training data for the classification model, which is important in the context of the ever-evolving research terminology. Although model-agnostic explanation methods, such as Local interpretable model-agnostic explanations, can be applied to explain machine learning classifiers trained on embedding models, these produce results with questionable correspondence to the model. We introduce a new feature importance method, Self-Model Entities Rated (SMER), for logistic regression-based classification models trained on word embeddings. We show that SMER has theoretically perfect fidelity with the explained model, as the average of logits of SMER scores for individual words (SMER explanation) exactly corresponds to the logit of the prediction of the explained model. Quantitative and qualitative evaluation is performed through five diverse experiments conducted on 50,000 research articles (papers) from the CORD-19 corpus. In conclusion, through an AOPC curve analysis, we experimentally demonstrate that SMER produces better explanations than LIME, SHAP and global tree surrogates.

Coarse-grained models↗