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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Switchgrass sward establishment selection is consistent across multiple environments and fertilization levels

Strong selection can occur during switchgrass sward establishment. Differences in establishment selection due to environment or management could provide information on genotype-by-environment variation and could influence strategies for breeding perennial grasses. Leaf samples were collected before sward establishment and from 3-year-old swards for two breeding groups (lowland and hybrid) at three locations. Within two locations, samples were collected from paired fertilized (112 kg N ha –1 ) and unfertilized plots. Allele frequencies from pooled DNA samples were studied through multivariate analysis of variance, genomewide trait predictions (heading date and winter survivorship), and genomically estimated breeding values (GEBVs) for individual sward survival within an independent data set. This study found only minor variations in selection due to location or management. Predicted heading dates of the hybrid population had significant changes due to fertilization and location. There were strong correlations among sward establishment survival GEBVs between growing environments (hybrid r = 0.77; gulf r = 0.97). Interestingly, this study found a small number of genotypes that were over-represented in established swards across all growing environments. This study reinforces a prior report of selection during sward establishment and indicates that only a small degree of establishment selection is location-specific within these diverse growing conditions.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

D3R grand challenge 4: blind prediction of protein–ligand poses, affinity rankings, and relative binding free energies

The Drug Design Data Resource (D3R) aims to identify best practice methods for computer aided drug design through blinded ligand pose prediction and affinity challenges. Herein, we report on the results of Grand Challenge 4 (GC4). GC4 focused on proteins beta secretase 1 and Cathepsin S, and was run in an analogous manner to prior challenges. In Stage 1, participant ability to predict the pose and affinity of BACE1 ligands were assessed. Following the completion of Stage 1, all BACE1 co-crystal structures were released, and Stage 2 tested affinity rankings with co-crystal structures. Finally, we provide an analysis of the results and discuss insights into determined best practice methods.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Genomic prediction of regional-scale performance in switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) by accounting for genotype-by-environment variation and yield surrogate traits

Switchgrass is a potential crop for bioenergy or carbon capture schemes, but further yield improvements through selective breeding are needed to encourage commercialization. To identify promising switchgrass germplasm for future breeding efforts, we conducted multisite and multitrait genomic prediction with a diversity panel of 630 genotypes from 4 switchgrass subpopulations (Gulf, Midwest, Coastal, and Texas), which were measured for spaced plant biomass yield across 10 sites. Our study focused on the use of genomic prediction to share information among traits and environments. Specifically, we evaluated the predictive ability of cross-validation (CV) schemes using only genetic data and the training set (cross-validation 1: CV1), a subset of the sites (cross-validation 2: CV2), and/or with 2 yield surrogates (flowering time and fall plant height). We found that genotype-by-environment interactions were largely due to the north–south distribution of sites. The genetic correlations between the yield surrogates and the biomass yield were generally positive (mean height r = 0.85; mean flowering time r = 0.45) and did not vary due to subpopulation or growing region (North, Middle, or South). Genomic prediction models had CV predictive abilities of –0.02 for individuals using only genetic data (CV1), but 0.55, 0.69, 0.76, 0.81, and 0.84 for individuals with biomass performance data from 1, 2, 3, 4, and 5 sites included in the training data (CV2), respectively. To simulate a resource-limited breeding program, we determined the predictive ability of models provided with the following: 1 site observation of flowering time (0.39); 1 site observation of flowering time and fall height (0.51); 1 site observation of fall height (0.52); 1 site observation of biomass (0.55); and 5 site observations of biomass yield (0.84). The ability to share information at a regional scale is very encouraging, but further research is required to accurately translate spaced plant biomass to commercial-scale sward biomass performance.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Prediction of inter-chain distance maps of protein complexes with 2D attention-based deep neural networks

Residue-residue distance information is useful for predicting tertiary structures of protein monomers or quaternary structures of protein complexes. Many deep learning methods have been developed to predict intra-chain residue-residue distances of monomers accurately, but few methods can accurately predict inter-chain residue-residue distances of complexes. We develop a deep learning method CDPred (i.e., Complex Distance Prediction) based on the 2D attention-powered residual network to address the gap. Tested on two homodimer datasets, CDPred achieves the precision of 60.94% and 42.93% for top L/5 inter-chain contact predictions (L: length of the monomer in homodimer), respectively, substantially higher than DeepHomo’s 37.40% and 23.08% and GLINTER’s 48.09% and 36.74%. Tested on the two heterodimer datasets, the top Ls/5 inter-chain contact prediction precision (Ls: length of the shorter monomer in heterodimer) of CDPred is 47.59% and 22.87% respectively, surpassing GLINTER’s 23.24% and 13.49%. Moreover, the prediction of CDPred is complementary with that of AlphaFold2-multimer.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Boosting Thailand’s palm oil yield with advanced seasonal predictions

Palm oil, an indispensable global commodity, plays a crucial role in Thailand's economy (Maluin et al 2020). This versatile product, found in everything from food to biodiesel and industrial applications (Kamil and Omar 2017, Chiarawipa et al 2020), cements Thailand's position as the third-largest producer in the world. The industry is particularly vital in the southern regions, where most plantations are located (Dallinger 2011), providing employment opportunities in rural areas and bolstering the nation's GDP and foreign exchange earnings through exports. However, oil palm productivity hinges on climatic conditions, with precipitation patterns being especially influential. Both local climate and remote forces like El Niño-Southern Oscillation (ENSO) significantly impact production. In neighboring Malaysia, research by Kamil and Omar (2017) has uncovered the consequential role of ENSO events on precipitation and, subsequently, palm oil productivity.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Many but not all deep neural network audio models capture brain responses and exhibit correspondence between model stages and brain regions

Models that predict brain responses to stimuli provide one measure of understanding of a sensory system and have many potential applications in science and engineering. Deep artificial neural networks have emerged as the leading such predictive models of the visual system but are less explored in audition. Prior work provided examples of audio-trained neural networks that produced good predictions of auditory cortical fMRI responses and exhibited correspondence between model stages and brain regions, but left it unclear whether these results generalize to other neural network models and, thus, how to further improve models in this domain. We evaluated model-brain correspondence for publicly available audio neural network models along with in-house models trained on 4 different tasks. Most tested models outpredicted standard spectromporal filter-bank models of auditory cortex and exhibited systematic model-brain correspondence: Middle stages best predicted primary auditory cortex, while deep stages best predicted non-primary cortex. However, some state-of-the-art models produced substantially worse brain predictions. Models trained to recognize speech in background noise produced better brain predictions than models trained to recognize speech in quiet, potentially because hearing in noise imposes constraints on biological auditory representations. The training task influenced the prediction quality for specific cortical tuning properties, with best overall predictions resulting from models trained on multiple tasks. The results generally support the promise of deep neural networks as models of audition, though they also indicate that current models do not explain auditory cortical responses in their entirety.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Report to the President: Extreme Weather Rik in a Changing Climate: Enhancing prediction and protecting communities

The President’s Council of Advisors on Science and Technology (PCAST) is the sole body of advisors from outside the federal government charged with making science, technology, and innovation policy recommendations to the President and the White House. Established by Executive Order, it is an independent Federal Advisory Committee comprised of distinguished individuals from industry, academia, and non-profit organizations with a range of perspectives and expertise. On April 24, 2023, PCAST sent a report to the President with recommendations on how science and technology can help inform and empower communities, businesses, and government agencies to prepare, respond, and adapt to extreme weather.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗
DOE OSTI2026

Hydrology in the Age of Artificial Intelligence: From Fragmentation to Coherent Terrestrial Hydrosphere Science

The rapid rise of machine learning (ML) in hydrology has prompted debate about the discipline's scientific relevance. While ML often outperforms traditional models in streamflow prediction, we argue that this reflects a deeper limitation: persistent fragmentation of hydrological science itself. Narrow focus on isolated components has hindered the development of coherent, scale‐relevant understanding of the integrated terrestrial hydrosphere. This is illustrated, for example, by widely divergent estimates of groundwater–streamflow interactions and of water balance‐implied ongoing storage changes. We argue that hydrology's future lies not in choosing between ML and physics, but in integrating data‐driven and process‐based approaches to advance consistent, realistic, and societally relevant understanding of the terrestrial hydrosphere and its multifaceted roles in the Earth System.

Painter, Scott L. [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (↗
DOE OSTI2020

A Bayesian Approach to Regional Decadal Predictability: Sparse Parameter Estimation in High-Dimensional Linear Inverse Models of High-Latitude Sea Surface Temperature Variability

Stochastic reduced models are an important tool in climate systems whose many spatial and temporal scales cannot be fully discretized or underlying physics may not be fully accounted for. One form of reduced model, the linear inverse model (LIM), has been widely used for regional climate predictability studies—typically focusing more on tropical or midlatitude studies. However, most LIM fitting techniques rely on point estimation techniques deriving from fluctuation–dissipation theory. In this methodological study we explore the use of Bayesian inference techniques for LIM parameter estimation of sea surface temperature (SST), to quantify the skillful decadal predictability of Bayesian LIM models at high latitudes. We show that Bayesian methods, when compared to traditional point estimation methods for LIM-type models, provide better calibrated probabilistic skill, while simultaneously providing better point estimates due to the regularization effect of the prior distribution in high-dimensional problems. We compare the effect of several priors, as well as maximum likelihood estimates, on 1) estimating parameter values on a perfect model experiment and 2) producing calibrated 1-yr SST anomaly forecast distributions using a preindustrial control run of the Community Earth System Model (CESM). Finally, we employ a host of probabilistic skill metrics to determine the extent to which an LIM can forecast SST anomalies at high latitudes. We find that the choice of prior distribution has an appreciable impact on estimation outcomes, and priors that emphasize physically relevant properties enhance the model’s ability to capture variability of SST anomalies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Incorporating dynamic recrystallization into a crystal plasticity model for high-temperature deformation of Ti-6Al-4V

During hot deformation of (α + β) titanium alloys, the simultaneous action of strain and temperature in the (α + β) regime facilitates dynamic recovery, dynamic recrystallization (DRX), and phase transformations via non-equilibrium paths. DRX is manifested in the form of fine recrystallized α or β grains. Here, in the present study, a two-phase crystal plasticity finite element framework (CP-DRX) has been developed which incorporates DRX kinetics into the crystal plasticity (CP) model to predict the flow characteristics of Ti-6Al-4V alloys during thermo-mechanical processing. The CP slip system parameters, as well as elastic properties from both α and β phases of Ti, are calibrated for different strain rate conditions. An EBSD-informed two-phase microstructure representation has been utilized in the CP-DRX framework to explore the time-dependent evolution of DRX microstructure and crystal orientation for different strain rate conditions. The proposed CP-DRX can capture the evolution of crystal orientation and plastic flow stress–strain response of polycrystalline Ti-6Al-4V during the deformation process. Furthermore, the proposed model is able to capture the softening behavior, observed in average stress–strain response from experiments performed using a Gleeble thermomechanical simulator and predict the recrystallization texture.

(α+ β)-Titanium (Ti) Alloys↗
DOE OSTI2022

Neutralization titer biomarker for antibody-mediated prevention of HIV-1 acquisition

The Antibody Mediated Prevention trials showed that the broadly neutralizing antibody (bnAb) VRC01 prevented acquisition of human immunodeficiency virus-1 (HIV-1) sensitive to VRC01. Using AMP trial data, here we show that the predicted serum neutralization 80% inhibitory dilution titer (PT 80 ) biomarker—which quantifies the neutralization potency of antibodies in an individual’s serum against an HIV-1 isolate—can be used to predict HIV-1 prevention efficacy. Similar to the results of nonhuman primate studies, an average PT 80 of 200 (meaning a bnAb concentration 200-fold higher than that required to reduce infection by 80% in vitro) against a population of probable exposing viruses was estimated to be required for 90% prevention efficacy against acquisition of these viruses. Based on this result, we suggest that the goal of sustained PT 80 <200 against 90% of circulating viruses can be achieved by promising bnAb regimens engineered for long half-lives. We propose the PT 80 biomarker as a surrogate endpoint for evaluatinon of bnAb regimens, and as a tool for benchmarking candidate bnAb-inducing vaccines.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Improving Solution Accuracy and Convergence for Stochastic Physics Parameterizations with Colored Noise

Stochastic parameterizations are used in numerical weather prediction and climate modeling to help capture the uncertainty in the simulations and improve their statistical properties. Convergence issues can arise when time integration methods originally developed for deterministic differential equations are applied naively to stochastic problems. In previous studies, it has been demonstrated that a correction term, known in stochastic analysis as the Itô correction, can help improve solution accuracy for various deterministic numerical schemes and ensure convergence to the physically relevant solution without substantial computational overhead. The usual formulation of the Itô correction is valid only when the stochasticity is represented by white noise. In this study, a generalized formulation of the Itô correction is derived for noises of any color. The formulation is applied to a test problem described by an advection–diffusion equation forced with a spectrum of fast processes. We present numerical results for cases with both constant and spatially varying advection velocities to show that, for the same time step sizes, the introduction of the generalized Itô correction helps to substantially reduce time integration error and significantly improve the convergence rate of the numerical solutions when the forcing term in the governing equation is rough (fast varying); alternatively, for the same target accuracy, the generalized Itô correction allows for the use of significantly longer time steps and, hence, helps to reduce the computational cost of the numerical simulation.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Prediction of protein assemblies, the next frontier: The CASP14-CAPRI experiment

Here we present the results for CAPRI Round 50, the fourth joint CASP-CAPRI protein assembly prediction challenge. The Round comprised a total of twelve targets, including six dimers, three trimers, and three higher-order oligomers. Four of these were easy targets, for which good structural templates were available either for the full assembly, or for the main interfaces (of the higher-order oligomers). Eight were difficult targets for which only distantly related templates were found for the individual subunits. Twenty-five CAPRI groups including eight automatic servers submitted ~1250 models per target. Twenty groups including six servers participated in the CAPRI scoring challenge submitted ~190 models per target. The accuracy of the predicted models was evaluated using the classical CAPRI criteria. The prediction performance was measured by a weighted scoring scheme that takes into account the number of models of acceptable quality or higher submitted by each group as part of their five top-ranking models. Compared to the previous CASP-CAPRI challenge, top performing groups submitted such models for a larger fraction (70–75%) of the targets in this Round, but fewer of these models were of high accuracy. Scorer groups achieved stronger performance with more groups submitting correct models for 70–80% of the targets or achieving high accuracy predictions. Servers performed less well in general, except for the MDOCKPP and LZERD servers, who performed on par with human groups. In addition to these results, major advances in methodology are discussed, providing an informative overview of where the prediction of protein assemblies currently stands.

protein complexes↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting boron coordination in multicomponent borate and borosilicate glasses using analytical models and machine learning

Accurate prediction of boron coordination in multicomponent glasses is critical in glass science and technology as it strongly affects the properties of borate and borosilicate glasses. We have collected a dataset containing 657 glasses from literature with boron coordination values and developed models using analytical functions based on the well accepted Dell, Xiao and Bray model. Good prediction of boron coordination with a R 2 value higher than 0.8 was obtained. The large variation of boron coordination from experiments, originated from sample preparations and characterizations, led to difficulties in obtaining models with better prediction performance. Various machine learning (ML) algorithms were evaluated and slightly better prediction performance was observed; however, interpretation of the ML models is less straight forward. In conclusion, this study developed various models capable of providing quantitative boron coordination predictions, providing insights into its structural roles in multi-component glasses, and suggesting fruitful areas for future research.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Toward a Climate OSSE Framework for Satellite Mission Design

The rich history of observing system simulation experiments (OSSEs) does not yet include a well-established framework for using climate models. The need for a climate OSSE is triggered by the need to quantify the value of a particular measurement for reducing the uncertainty in climate predictions, which differ from numerical weather predictions in that they depend on future atmospheric composition rather than the current state of the weather. However, both weather and climate modeling communities share a need for motivating major observing system investments. Here, we outline a new framework for climate OSSEs that leverages the use of machine learning to calibrate climate model physics against existing satellite data. We demonstrate its application using NASA’s GISS-E3 model to objectively quantify the value of potential future improvements in spaceborne measurements of Earth’s planetary boundary layer. A mature climate OSSE framework should be able to quantitatively compare the ability of proposed observing system architectures to answer a climate-related question, thus offering added value throughout the mission design process, which is subject to increasingly rapid advances in instrument and satellite technology. Technical considerations include selection of observational benchmarks and climate projection metrics, approaches to pinpoint the sources of model physics uncertainty that dominate uncertainty in projections, and the use of instrument simulators. Community and policy-making considerations include the potential to interface with an established culture of model intercomparison projects and a growing need to economically assess the value-driven efficiency of social spending on Earth observations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Ensemble transfer learning for the prediction of anti-cancer drug response

Abstract Transfer learning, which transfers patterns learned on a source dataset to a related target dataset for constructing prediction models, has been shown effective in many applications. In this paper, we investigate whether transfer learning can be used to improve the performance of anti-cancer drug response prediction models. Previous transfer learning studies for drug response prediction focused on building models to predict the response of tumor cells to a specific drug treatment. We target the more challenging task of building general prediction models that can make predictions for both new tumor cells and new drugs. Uniquely, we investigate the power of transfer learning for three drug response prediction applications including drug repurposing, precision oncology, and new drug development, through different data partition schemes in cross-validation. We extend the classic transfer learning framework through ensemble and demonstrate its general utility with three representative prediction algorithms including a gradient boosting model and two deep neural networks. The ensemble transfer learning framework is tested on benchmark in vitro drug screening datasets. The results demonstrate that our framework broadly improves the prediction performance in all three drug response prediction applications with all three prediction algorithms.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

CONFLUX: A standardized framework to calculate reactor antineutrino flux

Nuclear fission reactors are abundant sources of antineutrinos for neutrino physics experiments. The flux and spectrum of antineutrinos emitted by a reactor can indicate its activity and composition, suggesting potential applications of neutrino measurements beyond fundamental scientific studies that may be valuable to society. The utility of reactor antineutrinos for applications and fundamental science is dependent on the availability of precise predictions of these emissions. For example, in the last decade, disagreements between reactor antineutrino measurements and models have inspired revision of reactor antineutrino calculations and standard nuclear databases as well as searches for new fundamental particles not predicted by the Standard Model of particle physics. Past predictions and descriptions of the methods used to generate them are documented to varying degrees in the literature, with different modeling teams incorporating a range of methods, input data, and assumptions. The resulting difficulty in accessing or reproducing past models and reconciling results from differing approaches complicates the future study and application of reactor antineutrinos. The CONFLUX (Calculation Of Neutrino FLUX) software framework is a neutrino prediction tool built with the goal of simplifying, standardizing, and democratizing the process of reactor antineutrino flux calculations. CONFLUX includes three primary methods for calculating the antineutrino emissions of nuclear reactors or individual beta decays that incorporate common nuclear data and beta decay theory. The software is prepackaged with the current nuclear databases, including ENDF.B/VIII, JEFF-3.3, and ENSDF, and it includes the capability to predict time-dependent reactor emissions, adjust nuclear database or beta decay inputs/assumptions, and propagate related sources of uncertainty. Here, this paper describes the CONFLUX software structure, details the methods used for flux and spectrum calculations, and provides examples of potential use cases.

Zhang, Xianyi [Lawrence Livermore National Laborat↗
DOE OSTI2020

Clinically applicable 53-Gene prognostic assay predicts chemotherapy benefit in gastric cancer: A multicenter study

BACKGROUND:We previously established a 53-gene prognostic signature for overall survival (OS) of gastric cancer patients. This retrospective multi-center study aimed to develop a clinically applicable gene expression detection assay and to investigate the prognostic value of this signature. METHODS:A TCGA gastric adenocarcinoma cohort (TCGA-STAD) was used for comparing 53-gene signature with other gene signatures. A high-throughput mRNA hybridization gene expression assay was developed to quantify the expression of 53-genes in formalin-fixed paraffin-embedded tissues of 540 patients enrolled from three hospitals. 180 patents were randomly selected from two hospitals to build a prognostic prediction model based on the 53-gene signature using leave-p-out (one-third out) cross-validation method together with Cox regression and Kaplan-Meier analysis, and the model was assessed on three validation cohorts. FINDINGS:In the evaluation phase, studies based on TCGA-STAD showed that the 53-gene signature was significantly superior to other three prognostic signatures and was independent of TCGA molecular subtypes and clinical factors. For clinical validation and utility, the prognostic scores were generated using the newly developed assay, which was reliable and sensitive, in 100 sampling training sets and were significantly associated with OS in 100 sampling validation sets. The scores were significantly associated with OS in three independent and combined validation cohorts, and in patients with stages II and III/IV. The multivariate Cox regression demonstrated that the prognostic power of the score was independent of clinical factors, consistent with those findings in the TCGA dataset. Finally, patients with good prognostic scores exhibited significantly a better 5-year OS rate from adjuvant FOLFOX chemotherapy after surgery than from other chemotherapies. INTERPRETATION:The 53-gene prognostic score system is clinically applicable for predicting the OS of patients independent of clinical factors in gastric cancers, which could also be a promising predictive biomarker for FOLFOX regimen. FUNDING:Chinese National Science and Technology, National Natural Science Foundation and Natural Science Foundation of Jiangsu Province.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗