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At least 271 records · Page 15

Seven Centuries of Reconstructed Brahmaputra River Discharge Demonstrate Underestimated High Discharge and Flood Hazard Frequency

The lower Brahmaputra River in Bangladesh and Northeast India often floods during the monsoon season, with catastrophic consequences for people throughout the region. While most climate models predict an intensified monsoon and increase in flood risk with warming, robust baseline estimates of natural climate variability in the basin are limited by the short observational record. Here we use a new seven-century (1309–2004 C.E) tree-ring reconstruction of monsoon season Brahmaputra discharge to demonstrate that the early instrumental period (1956–1986 C.E.) ranks amongst the driest of the past seven centuries (13th percentile). Further, flood hazard inferred from the recurrence frequency of high discharge years is severely underestimated by 24–38% in the instrumental record compared to previous centuries and climate model projections. A focus on only recent observations will therefore be insufficient to accurately characterise flood hazard risk in the region, both in the context of natural variability and climate change.

tree-ring reconstruction↗

Managing the Risk for Early Onset Osteoporosis in Long-Duration Astronauts Due to Spaceflight

Early Onset Osteoporosis is probably the most recognized but poorly understood long-term health risk due to spaceflight. Osteoporosis management is primarily prophylactic and clinical interventions rely upon the ability to predict fractures which is currently determined by surrogate measures of bone strength. The RMAT for Early Onset Osteoporosis identified some open issues related to the fact that long-duration astronauts compose a unique group of subjects for which clinical approaches for osteoporosis management do not apply. Long-duration astronauts are healthy, young (25 to 55 years of age), predominantly male, and physical fit relative to the typical osteoporosis patient. Moreover, during prolonged space missions (typically 6-month missions) the skeleton not only adapts to weightlessness, but is influenced by numerous risk factors induced by operational constraints, e.g., inability to maintain preflight weight-bearing and aerobic activities, sub-optimal dietary intake (e.g., high sodium content for food stability, lack of fresh fruit and vegetables), suppression of vitamin D metabolism by uv shielding, and remote medicine care. Moreover, adaptation results in novel changes to astronauts bones that cannot be detected by current medically-useful measures. Consequently, a panel of clinicians (recognized leaders and policy-makers in osteoporosis) was convened to review the dataset of bone measures and bone loss risk factors in long-duration astronauts. Driven by the queries in the RMAT, the panel was charged to determine 1) if an intervention is required to prevent this risk, 2) what type and at what time would intervention be optimal, 3) what is the clinical trigger that would require a medical response from flight surgeons and 4) how should research data be used in the clinical care of astronauts. Hence, the RMAT determined that a bone health policy need to be formulated specific for this unique cohort subjected to a novel skeletal condition

Sibonga, Jean D.↗

The Hazard Components of Representative Key Risks. The Physical Climate Perspective

The framework of Representative Key Risks (RKRs) has been adopted by the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change Working Group II (WGII) to categorize, assess and communicate a wide range of regional and sectoral key risks from climate change. These are risks expected to become severe due to the potentially detrimental convergence of changing climate conditions with the exposure and vulnerability of human and natural systems. Other papers in this special issue treat each of eight RKRs holistically by assessing their current status and future evolution as a result of this convergence. However, in these papers, such assessment cannot always be organized according to a systematic gradation of climatic changes. Often the big-picture evolution of risk has to be extrapolated from either qualitative effects of “low”, “medium” and “high” warming, or limited/focused analysis of the consequences of particular mitigation choices (e.g., benefits of limiting warming to 1.5 or 2C), together with consideration of the socio-economic context and possible adaptation choices. In this study we offer a representation – as systematic as possible given current literature and assessments – of the future evolution of the hazard components of RKRs. We identify the relevant hazards for each RKR, based upon the WGII authors’ assessment, and we report on their current state and expected future changes in magnitude, intensity and/or frequency, linking these changes to Global Warming Levels (GWLs) to the extent possible. We draw on the assessment of changes in climatic impact-drivers relevant to RKRs described in the 6th Assessment Report by Working Group I supplemented when needed by more recent literature. For some of these quantities - like regional trends in oceanic and atmospheric temperature and precipitation, some heat and precipitation extremes, permafrost thaw and Northern Hemisphere snow cover - a strong and quantitative relationship with increasing GWLs has been identified. For others - like frequency and intensity of tropical cyclones and extra-tropical storms, and fire weather - that link can only be described qualitatively. For some processes - like the behavior of ice sheets, or changes in circulation dynamics - large uncertainties about the effects of different GWLs remain, and for a few others - like ocean pH and air pollution - the composition of the scenario of anthropogenic emissions is most relevant, rather than the warming reached. In almost all cases, however, the basic message remains that every small increment in CO2 concentration in the atmosphere and associated warming will bring changes in climate phenomena that will contribute to increasing risk of impacts on human and natural systems, in the absence of compensating changes in these systems’ exposure and vulnerability, and in the absence of effective adaptation. Our picture of the evolution of RKR-relevant climatic impact-drivers complements and enriches the treatment of RKRs in the other papers in at least two ways: by filling in their often only cursory or limited representation of the physical climate aspects driving impacts, and by providing a fuller representation of their future potential evolution, an important component – if never the only one – of the future evolution of risk severity.

Representative Key Risks↗

Recent Developments in Three Dimensional Radiation Transport Using the Green's Function Technique

In the future, astronauts will be sent into space for longer durations of time compared to previous missions. The increased risk of exposure to dangerous radiation, such as Galactic Cosmic Rays and Solar Particle Events, is of great concern. Consequently, steps must be taken to ensure astronaut safety by providing adequate shielding. In order to better determine and verify shielding requirements, an accurate and efficient radiation transport code based on a fully three dimensional radiation transport model using the Green's function technique is being developed

Rockell, Candice↗

SEU System Analysis: Not Just the Sum of All Parts

Single event upset (SEU) analysis of complex systems is challenging. Currently, system SEU analysis is performed by component level partitioning and then either: the most dominant SEU cross-sections (SEUs) are used in system error rate calculations; or the partition SEUs are summed to eventually obtain a system error rate. In many cases, system error rates are overestimated because these methods generally overlook system level derating factors. The problem with overestimating is that it can cause overdesign and consequently negatively affect the following: cost, schedule, functionality, and validation/verification. The scope of this presentation is to discuss the risks involved with our current scheme of SEU analysis for complex systems; and to provide alternative methods for improvement.

Single Event Upset (SEU) Testing↗

Landslides Across the USA: Occurrence, Susceptibility, and Data Limitations

Detailed information about landslide occurrence is the foundation for advancing process understanding, susceptibility mapping, and risk reduction. Despite the recent revolution in digital elevation data and remote sensing technologies, landslide mapping remains resource intensive. Consequently, a modern, comprehensive map of landslide occurrence across the United States (USA) has not been compiled. As a first step toward this goal, we present a national-scale compilation of existing, publicly available landslide inventories. This geodatabase can be downloaded in its entirety or viewed through an online, searchable map, with parsimonious attributes and direct links to the contributing sources with additional details. The mapped spatial pattern and concentration of landslides are consistent with prior characterization of susceptibility within the conterminous USA, with some notable exceptions on the West Coast. Although the database is evolving and known to be incomplete in many regions, it confirms that landslides do occur across the country, thus highlighting the importance of our national-scale assessment. The map illustrates regions where high-quality mapping has occurred and, in contrast, where additional resources could improve confidence in landslide characterization. For example, borders between states and other jurisdictions are quite apparent, indicating the variation in approaches to data collection by different agencies and disparity between the resources dedicated to landslide characterization. Further investigations are needed to better assess susceptibility and to determine whether regions with high relief and steep topography, but without mapped landslides, require further landslide inventory mapping. Overall, this map provides a new resource for accessing information about known landslides across the USA.

Landslide mapping↗

Development of Head Injury Assessment Reference Values Based on NASA Injury Modeling

NASA is developing a new capsule-based, crewed vehicle that will land in the ocean, and the space agency desires to reduce the risk of injury from impact during these landings. Because landing impact occurs for each flight and the crew might need to perform egress tasks, current injury assessment reference values (IARV) were deemed insufficient. Because NASCAR occupant restraint systems are more effective than the systems used to determine the current IARVs and are similar to NASA s proposed restraint system, an analysis of NASCAR impacts was performed to develop new IARVs that may be more relevant to NASA s context of vehicle landing operations. Head IARVs associated with race car impacts were investigated by completing a detailed analysis of all of the 2002-2008 NASCAR impact data. Specific inclusion and exclusion criteria were used to select 4071 impacts from the 4015 recorder files provided (each file could contain multiple impact events). Of the 4071 accepted impacts, 274 were selected for numerical simulation using a custom NASCAR restraint system and Humanetics Hybrid-III 50th percentile numerical dummy model in LS-DYNA. Injury had occurred in 32 of the 274 selected impacts, and 27 of those injuries involved the head. A majority of the head injuries were mild concussions with or without brief loss of consciousness. The 242 non-injury impacts were randomly selected and representative of the range of crash dynamics present in the total set of 4071 impacts. Head dynamics data (head translational acceleration, translational change in velocity, rotational acceleration, rotational velocity, HIC-15, HIC-36, and the Head 3ms clip) were filtered according to SAE J211 specifications and then transformed to a log scale. The probability of head injury was estimated using a separate logistic regression analysis for each log-transformed predictor candidate. Using the log transformation constrains the estimated probability of injury to become negligible as IARVs approach zero. For the parameters head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, HIC-15, and HIC-36, conservative values (in the lower 95% confidence interval) that gave rise to a 5% risk of any injury occurring were estimated as 40.0 G, 7.9 m/s, 2200 rad/s2, 98.4, and 77.4 respectively. Because NASA is interested in the consequence of any particular injury on the ability of the crew to perform egress tasks, the head injuries that occurred in the NASCAR dataset were classified according to a NASA-developed scale (Classes I - III) for operationally relevant injuries, which classifies injuries on the basis of their operational significance. Additional analysis of the data was performed to determine the probability of each injury class occurring, and this was estimated using an ordered probit model. For head translational acceleration, head translational velocity change, head rotational acceleration, head rotational velocity, HIC-36, and head 3ms clip, conservative values of IARVs that produced a 5% risk of Class II injury were estimated as 50.7 G, 9.5 m/s, 2863 rad/s2, 11.0 rad/s, 30.3, and 46.4 G respectively. The results indicate that head IARVs developed from the NASCAR dataset may be useful to protect crews during landing impact.

Somers, Jeffrey T.↗

Design for Survivability: An Approach to Assured Autonomy

Rapidly expanding unmanned air traffic includes and will continue to include non-cooperative participants. Non-cooperative behavior may be due to technical failure, a lack of appropriate equipment, a careless or malicious operator. Regardless of the cause, the outcome remains: growing density of non-cooperative traffic will increase the risk of collision between unmanned vehicles and aircraft carrying humans. As a result, the degraded safety of airspace may limit access to airspace, with adverse consequences for the traveling public and the economy. Because encounters with small non-cooperative objects, such as birds or wayward drones, can happen too rapidly for an external control system to mitigate them, it is imperative that the aircraft that carry humans survive encounters with non-cooperative vehicles. To-date, design for survivability has been practiced explicitly in the military domain. Survivability against collisions in civil aviation has been limited to tolerances against bird strikes; and these tolerances have proved inadequate on occasion. The growing risk of collision with unmanned vehicles now requires the development of survivability discipline for civilian transport aircraft. The new discipline must be infused into multidisciplinary design methods, on par with traditional disciplines. In this paper, we report on a preliminary study of survivability considerations for the civil aviation domain.

Alexandrov, Natalia M.↗

Latent Viruses: A Space Travel Hazard??

A major issue associated with long-duration space flight is the possibility of infectious disease causing an unacceptable medical risk to crew members. Our proposal is designed to gain information that addresses several issues outlined in the Immunology/Infectious disease critical path. The major hypothesis addressed is that space flight causes alterations in the immune system that may allow latent viruses which are endogenous in the human population to reactivate and shed to higher levels than normal which can affect the health of crew members during a long term space-flight mission. We will initially focus our studies on the human herpesviruses and human polyomaviruses which are important pathogens known to establish latent infections in the human population. Both primary infection and reactivation from latent infection with this group of viruses can cause a variety of illnesses that result in morbidity and occasionally mortality of infected individuals. Effective vaccines exist for only one of the eight known human herpesviruses and the vaccine itself can still reactivate from latent infection. Available antivirals are of limited use and are effective against only a few of the human herpesviruses. Although most individuals display little if any clinical consequences from latent infection, events which alter immune function such as immunosuppressive therapy following solid organ transplantation are known to increase the risk of developing complications as a result of latent virus reactivation. This proposal will measure both the frequency and magnitude of viral shedding and genome loads in the blood from humans participating in activities that serve as ground based models of space flight conditions. Our initial goal is to develop sensitive quantitative competitive PCR- based assays (QC-PCR) to detect the herpesvirus Epstein-Barr virus (EBV), and the polyomaviruses SV40, BKV, and JCV. Using these assays we will establish baseline patterns of viral genome load in the blood and viral shedding from normal volunteers in a longitudinal study over I year in length. As a comparison, we will measure patterns of viral genome loads and shedding from individuals who are severely immunosuppressed, in whom herpesvirus reactivation or primary infection with a herpesvirus is known to cause complications. In addition, we will proceed to testing ground based analogs in collaboration with Dr. Duane Pierson (Lyndon B. Johnson Space Center). This will include measuring samples obtained from individuals living and working in the extreme environment of Antarctica. We expect to detect viral shedding or reactivation from most of the test groups, although the magnitude of shedding or reactivation cannot be predicted. The data accumulated from studies in this proposal should allow us to evaluate whether events that simulate certain aspects of space flight reactivate viral infections severe enough in nature that they may compromise the success of long-term space flight missions. These studies will also provide a foundation to monitor viral reactivation and shedding from crew members participating in actual space flight missions. We will present data showing the establishment of our QC-PCR assay for detection of EBV.

Ling, P. D.↗

Reliability of Fault Tolerant Control Systems

This paper reports Part II of a two part effort that is intended to delineate the relationship between reliability and fault tolerant control in a quantitative manner. Reliability properties peculiar to fault-tolerant control systems are emphasized, such as the presence of analytic redundancy in high proportion, the dependence of failures on control performance, and high risks associated with decisions in redundancy management due to multiple sources of uncertainties and sometimes large processing requirements. As a consequence, coverage of failures through redundancy management can be severely limited. The paper proposes to formulate the fault tolerant control problem as an optimization problem that maximizes coverage of failures through redundancy management. Coverage modeling is attempted in a way that captures its dependence on the control performance and on the diagnostic resolution. Under the proposed redundancy management policy, it is shown that an enhanced overall system reliability can be achieved with a control law of a superior robustness, with an estimator of a higher resolution, and with a control performance requirement of a lesser stringency.

Wu, N. Eva↗

Unique Testing Capabilities of the NASA Langley Transonic Dynamics Tunnel, an Exercise in Aeroelastic Scaling

NASA Langley Research Center's Transonic Dynamics Tunnel (TDT) is the world's most capable aeroelastic test facility. Its large size, transonic speed range, variable pressure capability, and use of either air or R-134a heavy gas as a test medium enable unparalleled manipulation of flow-dependent scaling quantities. Matching these scaling quantities enables dynamic similitude of a full-scale vehicle with a sub-scale model, a requirement for proper characterization of any dynamic phenomenon, and many static elastic phenomena. Select scaling parameters are presented in order to quantify the scaling advantages of TDT and the consequence of testing in other facilities. In addition to dynamic testing, the TDT is uniquely well-suited for high risk testing or for those tests that require unusual model mount or support systems. Examples of recently conducted dynamic tests requiring unusual model support are presented. In addition to its unique dynamic test capabilities, the TDT is also evaluated in its capability to conduct aerodynamic performance tests as a result of its flow quality. Results of flow quality studies and a comparison to a many other transonic facilities are presented. Finally, the ability of the TDT to support future NASA research thrusts and likely vehicle designs is discussed.

Ivanco, Thomas G.↗

Acoustic Emission Health Monitoring of Fill Purge COPV's Used in Aerospace and Automotive Applications and Designed for Long Cycle Life

Cumulative composite damage in composite pressure vessels (CPVs) currently is not monitored on-orbit. Consequently, hazards due to catastrophic burst before leak (BBL) or compromised CPV reliability cannot be ascertained or mitigated, posing a risk to crew and mission assurance. The energy associated with CPV rupture can be significant, especially with high pressure gases are under containment, and the energy releases can be severe enough to cause injury, death, loss of assets or mission. Dual-Use Rationale: CPVs similar to those used by NASA on ISS, for example, are finding increasing use in automotive and transportation industry applications. These CPVs generally have a nonload sharing liner and are repeatedly filled over their service lifetime, typically with hydrogen or compressed natural gas (CNG). The same structural health monitoring equipment and software developed by NASA WSTF for evaluating, in real-time, the health of NASA CPVs on ISS will be used to evaluate the health of automotive CPVs, the only differences being the type and design of the CPV, and the in-service lifetime pressure histories. HSF Need(s)/Performance Characteristic(s) Supported: 1) Enable on-board vehicle systems management for mission critical functions at destinations with > 3 second time delay 2) Enable autonomous nominal operations and FDIR for crewed and un-crewed systems 3) Reduce on-board crew time to sustain and manage vehicle by factor of 2x at destinations with > 6 second time delay (see Crew Autonomy sheet) 4) Reduce earth-based mission ops "back room engineering" requirements for distant mission support delay (see Mission Autonomy sheet)

Waller, Jess↗

The 28 November 2020 Landslide, Tsunami, and Outburst Flood – A Hazard Cascade Associated With Rapid Deglaciation at Elliot Creek, British Columbia, Canada

We describe and model the evolution of a recent landslide, tsunami, outburst flood, and sediment plume in the southern Coast Mountains, British Columbia, Canada. On November 28, 2020, about 18 million m3 of rock descended 1,000 m from a steep valley wall and traveled across the toe of a glacier before entering a 0.6 km2 glacier lake and producing >100-m high run-up. Water overtopped the lake outlet and scoured a 10-km long channel before depositing debris on a 2-km2 fan below the lake outlet. Floodwater, organic debris, and fine sediment entered a fjord where it produced a 60+km long sediment plume and altered turbidity, water temperature, and water chemistry for weeks. The outburst flood destroyed forest and salmon spawning habitat. Physically based models of the landslide, tsunami, and flood provide real-time simulations of the event and can improve understanding of similar hazard cascades and the risk they pose. Plain Language Summary Glacier retreat exposes unstable slopes that can suddenly fail. We describe and model one such event with far-reaching consequences. The landslide mass (50 million tonnes, equivalent to the combined mass of all Canadian automobiles) entered and suddenly drained a 0.6-km2 alpine lake in the southern Coast Mountains of British Columbia. Displaced water destroyed salmon-spawning habitat over a distance of 8.5 km and created a plume of sediment and organic matter more than 60 km from the head of the fjord into which the floodwaters discharged. Physically based models are able to simulate the hazard cascade, and such models could be used to improve hazard and risk assessments of these events under future climate change.

M. Geertsema↗

An Integrated Reliability and Physics-Based Risk Modeling Approach for Assessing Human Spaceflight Systems

This paper presents an integrated reliability and physics-based risk modeling approach for assessing human spaceflight systems. The approach is demonstrated using an example, end-to-end risk assessment of a generic-crewed space transportation system during a reference mission to the International Space Station. The behavior of the system is modeled using analysis techniques from multiple disciplines in order to properly capture the dynamic time- and state- dependent consequences of failures encountered in different mission phases. We discuss how to combine traditional reliability analyses with Monte Carlo simulation methods and physics-based engineering models to produce loss-of- mission and loss-of-crew risk estimates supporting risk-based decision-making and requirement verification. This approach facilitates risk-informed design by providing more realistic representation of system failures and interactions; identifying key risk-driving sensitivities, dependencies, and assumptions; and tracking multiple figures of merit within a single, responsive assessment framework that can readily incorporate evolving design information throughout system development.

Risk assessment↗

Immune Function and Reactivation of Latent Viruses

A major concern associated with long-duration space flight is the possibility of infectious diseases posing an unacceptable medical risk to crew members. One major hypothesis addressed in this project is that space flight will cause alterations in the immune system that will allow latent viruses that are endogenous in the human population to reactivate and shed to higher levels than normal, which may affect the health of crew members. The second major hypothesis being examined is that the effects of space flight will alter the mucosal immune system, the first line of defense against many microbial infections, including herpesviruses, polyomaviruses, and gastroenteritis viruses, rendering crew members more susceptible to virus infections across the mucosa. We are focusing the virus studies on the human herpesviruses and polyomaviruses, important pathogens known to establish latent infections in most of the human population. Both primary infection and reactivation from latent infection with these groups of viruses (especially certain herpesviruses) can cause a variety of illnesses that result in morbidity and, occasionally, mortality. Both herpesviruses and polyomaviruses have been associated with human cancer, as well. Effective vaccines exist for only one of the eight known human herpesviruses and available antivirals are of limited use. Whereas normal individuals display minimal consequences from latent viral infections, events which alter immune function (such as immunosuppressive therapy following solid organ transplantation) are known to increase the risk of complications as a result of viral reactivations.

Butel, Janet S.↗

Advanced automated glass cockpit certification: Being wary of human factors

This paper presents some facets of the French experience with human factors in the process of certification of advanced automated cockpits. Three types of difficulties are described: first, the difficulties concerning the hotly debated concept of human error and its non-linear relationship to risk of accident; a typology of errors to be taken into account in the certification process is put forward to respond to this issue. Next, the difficulties connected to the basically gradual and evolving nature of pilot expertise on a given type of aircraft, which contrasts with the immediate and definitive style of certifying systems. The last difficulties to be considered are those related to the goals of certification itself on these new aircraft and the status of findings from human factor analyses (in particular, what should be done with disappointing results, how much can the changes induced by human factors investigation economically affect aircraft design, how many errors do we need to accumulate before we revise the system, what should be remedied when human factor problems are discovered at the certification stage: the machine? pilot training? the rules? or everything?). The growth of advanced-automated glass cockpits has forced the international aeronautical community to pay more attention to human factors during the design phase, the certification phase and pilot training. The recent creation of a human factor desk at the DGAC-SFACT (Official French services) is a direct consequence of this. The paper is divided into three parts. Part one debates human error and its relationship with system design and accident risk. Part two describes difficulties connected to the basically gradual and evolving nature of pilot expertise on a given type of aircraft, which contrasts with the immediate and definitive style of certifying systems. Part three focuses on concrete outcomes of human factors for certification purposes.

Amalberti, Rene↗

Probalistic Assessment of Radiation Risk for Solar Particle Events

For long duration missions outside of the protection of the Earth's magnetic field, exposure to solar particle events (SPEs) is a major safety concern for crew members during extra-vehicular activities (EVAs) on the lunar surface or Earth-to-moon or Earth-to-Mars transit. The large majority (~90%) of SPEs have small or no health consequences because the doses are low and the particles do not penetrate to organ depths. However, there is an operational challenge to respond to events of unknown size and duration. We have developed a probabilistic approach to SPE risk assessment in support of mission design and operational planning. Using the historical database of proton measurements during the past 5 solar cycles, the functional form of hazard function of SPE occurrence per cycle was found for nonhomogeneous Poisson model. A typical hazard function was defined as a function of time within a non-specific future solar cycle of 4000 days duration. Distributions of particle fluences for a specified mission period were simulated ranging from its 5th to 95th percentile. Organ doses from large SPEs were assessed using NASA's Baryon transport model, BRYNTRN. The SPE risk was analyzed with the organ dose distribution for the given particle fluences during a mission period. In addition to the total particle fluences of SPEs, the detailed energy spectra of protons, especially at high energy levels, were recognized as extremely important for assessing the cancer risk associated with energetic particles for large events. The probability of exceeding the NASA 30-day limit of blood forming organ (BFO) dose inside a typical spacecraft was calculated for various SPE sizes. This probabilistic approach to SPE protection will be combined with a probabilistic approach to the radiobiological factors that contribute to the uncertainties in projecting cancer risks in future work.

Kim, Myung-Hee Y.↗

Biological countermeasures in space radiation health

Exposure to the types of ionizing radiation encountered during space travel may cause a number of health-related problems, but the primary concern is related to the increased risk of cancer induction in astronauts. The major types of radiation considered to be of importance during space travel are protons and particles of high atomic number and high energy (HZE particles). It is now clear that biological countermeasures can be used to prevent or reduce the levels of biological consequences resulting from exposure to protons or HZE particles, including the induction of cancer, immunosuppression and neurological defects caused by these types of ionizing radiation. Research related to the dietary additions of agents to minimize the risks of developing health-related problems which can result from exposure to space radiations is reviewed.

NASA Discipline Radiation Health↗