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DOE OSTI2026

NanoPSD: A software for automatic detection of Nano-Particle Shape Distribution in electron microscopy images

Accurate quantification of the size and morphology of nanoparticles from electron microscopy (EM) images is essential to understand growth mechanisms, surface reactivity, and functional behavior in nanoscale materials. Manual analysis remains slow, subjective, and difficult to reproduce in large datasets. We introduce NanoPSD (Nano-Particle Shape Distribution), an open-source and fully automated framework for quantitative particle detection and morphology analysis from EM images. NanoPSD integrates adaptive contrast enhancement, polarity-agnostic scale-bar detection, Optical Character Recognition (OCR)-based calibration, and classical segmentation via Otsu thresholding with morphological refinement. Particle contours are used to extract geometric descriptors, including equivalent circular diameter, aspect ratio, circularity, and solidity, enabling automated classification into spherical, rod-like, and aggregate morphologies. The framework supports both single-image and batch processing, generating publication-quality visualizations, LaTeX-ready tables, and structured comma-separated values (CSV) datasets. As a demonstration, we applied NanoPSD to plasma-synthesized nanoparticle samples diagnosed via transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The code produced statistically robust size and morphology distributions spanning a few to tens of nanometers with minimal user supervision. The pipeline demonstrates high reproducibility and scalability, processing large image collections with consistent calibration and output formatting. Its modular design enables seamless integration of future deep-learning-based segmentation models, providing a pathway toward intelligent, data-driven electron microscopy analysis.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

Comprehensive framework for data-driven model form discovery of the closure laws in thermal-hydraulics codes

The two-phase two-fluid model is a basis of many thermal-hydraulics codes used in design, licensing, and safety considerations of nuclear power plants. Thermal-hydraulics codes rely on the closure laws to close the system of conservation equations and describe the interactions between phases. These laws, derived from years of experimental investigations, are semi-empirical correlations that lack generality and have a limited range of applicability. Increase of computational power, availability of new experiments, and development of high-fidelity simulations has increased the number of validation data. The discrepancies between the code predictions and the validation data are a great source of knowledge. Missing physics that are not included in the model but are important for the considered phenomena can be discovered by propagating the information from the experimental results through the model. Furthermore, physics-discovered data-driven model form (P3DM) methodology integrates available integral effect tests and separate effects tests to determine the necessary corrections to the model form of the closure laws. In contrast to existing calibration techniques, the methodology modifies the functional form of the closure laws. Based on the functional form of the correction, the missing physics that were not included in the original model can be discovered. The methodology provides the alternative to the machine learning approach, in which the model is discovered in the form of the intractable black-box relation. In this work, the methodology was applied to the CTF subchannel code to improve the prediction of the two-phase flow phenomena.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated AI-driven Molecular Design for Therapeutic Discovery

In recent years, artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) approaches have revolutionized the process of designing new therapeutics, enabling scientists to rapidly respond to emerging threats from various pathogens. A prime example is the SARS-CoV-2 main protease, a key target for the development of antiviral inhibitors. In this study, we employed a novel, integrated approach that combines AI-driven iterative design of inhibitor candidates, screening based on physio-chemical properties and toxicity, physics-based computational modeling of protein-inhibitor interactions, and AI-assisted analysis of Native MS biophysical assay and characterization of designed candidates. Our deep learning 3D-scaffold model, which uses an input scaffold as a starting point, generated tens of thousands of compounds while preserving the key scaffold. To optimize these candidates, we calculated a comprehensive set of 136 descriptors, including both 2D and 3D molecular features, for compounds targeting the SARS-CoV-2 Main protease (Mpro) and a neurodegenerative disease-associated protein, cyclophilin (Cyp). The generated compounds were initially filtered based on their properties and then ranked according to their predicted binding affinity using our automated modeling and ML methods. Experimental validation of the Mpro candidates showing inhibitory activity demonstrates that our workflow can expedite the therapeutic discovery.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Forecasted Climate Penalties to Surface Ozone Across the 21st Century

Future climate change may bring local benefits or penalties to surface ozone pollution, resulting from changing temperature, precipitation, and transport patterns, as well as climate-sensitive natural precursor emissions. Here, we estimate climate penalty and benefits at the end of this century using version 2.0 of the Global Change and Air Pollution (GCAP 2.0) model framework, a one-way offline coupling between version E2.1 of the NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies (GISS) general circulation model (GCM) and the GEOS-Chem global 3-D chemical-transport model (CTM). We archive meteorology for driving GEOS-Chem from the E2.1 contributions to Phase 6 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP6) for the present day (2005-2014 C.E.) and end-of-the 21st century (2090-2099 C.E.). Emissions and boundary conditions used for input to GEOS-Chem are consistent with the CMIP6 experimental design. We apply the model to isolate the impact of forecasted anthropogenic precursor emission changes versus climate-only driven changes on surface ozone for warming limited to 1.9 W m-2 versus 8.5 W m-2 above preindustrial levels. We find a global climate penalty of 47 (16-77) thousand additional deaths due to surface ozone at the end of the century in the extreme warming scenario, but only 13 (4-21) thousand additional deaths in the extreme mitigation scenario. Similarly, the extreme warming scenario is associated with a 40 % increase in economic losses due to crop damage from climate-only changes in surface ozone, but only an 8 % increase in the extreme mitigation scenario. The simulated climate penalties to surface ozone are most severe in South and East Asia.

Climate penalties↗

NASA NTRS1984

Description of a laboratory model Annular Momentum Control Device (AMCD)

The basic concept of the Annular Momentum Control Device (AMCD) is that of a rotating annular rim suspended by noncontacting magnetic bearings and driven by a noncontacting electromagnetic spin motor. The purpose of this paper is to highlight some of the design requirements for AMCD's in general and describe how these requirements were met in the implementation of laboratory test model AMCD. An AMCD background summary is presented.

Groom, N. J.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Design and execution of a verification, validation, and uncertainty quantification plan for a numerical model of left ventricular flow after LVAD implantation

Left ventricular assist devices (LVADs) are implantable pumps that act as a life support therapy for patients with severe heart failure. Despite improving the survival rate, LVAD therapy can carry major complications. Particularly, the flow distortion introduced by the LVAD in the left ventricle (LV) may induce thrombus formation. While previous works have used numerical models to study the impact of multiple variables in the intra-LV stagnation regions, a comprehensive validation analysis has never been executed. The main goal of this work is to present a model of the LV-LVAD system and to design and follow a verification, validation and uncertainty quantification (VVUQ) plan based on the ASME V&V40 and V&V20 standards to ensure credible predictions. The experiment used to validate the simulation is the SDSU cardiac simulator, a bench mock-up of the cardiovascular system that allows mimicking multiple operation conditions for the heart-LVAD system. The numerical model is based on Alya, the BSC’s in-house platform for numerical modelling. Alya solves the Navier-Stokes equation with an Arbitrary Lagrangian-Eulerian (ALE) formulation in a deformable ventricle and includes pressure-driven valves, a 0D Windkessel model for the arterial output and a LVAD boundary condition modeled through a dynamic pressure-flow performance curve. The designed VVUQ plan involves: (a) a risk analysis and the associated credibility goals; (b) a verification stage to ensure correctness in the numerical solution procedure; (c) a sensitivity analysis to quantify the impact of the inputs on the four quantities of interest (QoIs) (average aortic root flow $Q^{avg}_{Ao}$, maximum aortic root flow $Q^{max}_{Ao}$, average LVAD flow $Q^{avg}_{VAD}$, and maximum LVAD flow $Q^{max}_{VAD}$; (d) an uncertainty quantification using six validation experiments that include extreme operating conditions. Numerical code verification tests ensured correctness of the solution procedure and numerical calculation verification showed a grid convergence index (GCI)95% <3.3%. The total Sobol indices obtained during the sensitivity analysis demonstrated that the ejection fraction, the heart rate, and the pump performance curve coefficients are the most impactful inputs for the analysed QoIs. The Minkowski norm is used as validation metric for the uncertainty quantification. It shows that the midpoint cases have more accurate results when compared to the extreme cases. The total computational cost of the simulations was above 100 [core-years] executed in around three weeks time span in Marenostrum IV supercomputer. This work details a novel numerical model for the LV-LVAD system, that is supported by the design and execution of a VVUQ plan created following recognised international standards. We present a methodology demonstrating that stringent VVUQ according to ASME standards is feasible but computationally expensive.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Control of a Three-Phase Grid-Connected Voltage-Sourced Converter Using Long Short-Term Memory Networks

With the rise of inverter-based resources (IBRs) within the power system, the control of grid-connected converters (GCCs) has become pertinent due to the fact they interface IBRs to the grid. The conventional method of control for a GCC such as the voltage-sourced converter (VSC) is through a decoupled control loop in the synchronous reference frame. However, this model-based control method is sensitive to parameter changes causing deterioration in controller performance. Data-driven approaches such as machine learning can be utilized to design controllers that are capable of operating GCCs in various system conditions. This work explores a deep learning-based control method for a three-phase grid-connected VSC, specifically utilizing a long short-term memory (LSTM) network for robust control. Simulations of a conventional controlled VSC are conducted using Simulink to collect data for training the LSTM-based controller. The LSTM model is built and trained using the Keras and TensorFlow libraries in Python and tested in Simulink. The performance of the LSTM-based controller is evaluated under different case studies and compared to the conventional method of control. Simulation results demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach by outperforming the conventional controller and maintaining stability under different system parameter changes.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Designing Peptide Fossils That Model the Evolution of the Bacterial Ferredoxin Fold

Electron transfer coupled to redox chemistry is at the heart of metabolism. The proteins responsible for moving electrons (protein electron carriers) must have emerged at the origin of life. The small iron–sulfur-binding bacterial ferredoxins were likely among these first proteins. Embedded within the ferredoxin sequence and structure is a symmetry that points to an ancient gene duplication event. Little is understood about the nature of ferredoxins prior to this duplication event or what environmental factors may have driven the selection for more complex forms. The deep-time molecular history of ferredoxins goes back billions of years and cannot be reconstructed by phylogenetic analyses based on amino acid sequences. Here, we use structure-guided protein design to model a fossil half-ferredoxin stage in the evolution of this fold, the semidoxins, and their symmetric full-length counterparts, the symdoxins. Semidoxin designs homodimerize, exhibiting structural, thermodynamic, and electrochemical behaviors in most cases identical to cognate symdoxins. However, the semi- and symdoxin fossil stages behave differently when incorporated into an in vivo electron transfer complementation assay. Both can support bacterial growth dependent on protein expression. Growth rates of bacteria expressing the semidoxins are much more sensitive to oxygen than those of bacteria expressing symdoxins. Motivated by the in vivo functionality of designed semidoxins, we identified putative naturally occurring semidoxins in extant anaerobic microorganisms. This is consistent with the observed in vivo oxygen sensitivity of the semidoxin designs. One natural semidoxin is shown to be folded and redox active. However, it exists as a mixture of monomers and dimers, suggesting a potential connection between semidoxins and even simpler single iron–sulfur cluster-binding peptides.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Assessing Photovoltaic Capacity Factor Variability Using Long-Term Satellite Derived Solar Resource Data Under Brazilian Climate

Accurate estimation of photovoltaic (PV) energy yield and its variability is essential for reducing financial risk and supporting reliable system planning for rapidly expanding PV markets. In Brazil, high solar adoption and increasing levels of distributed energy resources are beginning to introduce operational challenges such as curtailment and evolving grid requirements. Understanding how natural variability in solar resource propagates into PV system performance is therefore increasingly important for both project design and grid integration. Modern PV yield assessments commonly rely on multi-year meteorological datasets and probabilistic exceedance metrics (e.g., P50/P90) to quantify energy yield uncertainty for project financing. However, the implications of long-term solar resource variability for PV system design choices and high-adoption grid conditions remain less well characterized for rapidly expanding markets such as Brazil. In particular, understanding how weather-driven variability propagates into PV production distributions and capacity factor expectations is important for evaluating curtailment exposure, deployment strategies, and storage requirements in regions experiencing rapid growth of distributed and utility-scale PV. Seasonal and interannual variability in atmospheric conditions can produce substantial fluctuations in monthly PV energy production, which propagate into uncertainty in annual energy yield and capacity factor expectations. Characterizing this variability using long-term meteorological datasets allows probabilistic estimation of PV system performance and provides improved insight into the range of expected PV energy outcomes. This study explores the use of long-term satellite-derived meteorological data from the National Solar Radiation Database (NSRDB) to evaluate the variability of photovoltaic system performance across multiple locations in Brazil. Using a 27-year dataset (1998-2024), PV system simulations are performed to characterize the distribution of annual and seasonal capacity factors and energy yield outcomes, while propagating key sources of meteorological variability and model uncertainty through the PV modeling chain. The analysis also investigates the sensitivity of PV performance outcomes to key system design assumptions within the PV modeling chain, including tracking configuration and system sizing parameters. The resulting probabilistic performance characterization provides insight into how weather-driven variability influences PV production expectations and capacity factor distributions. These results provide a foundation for evaluating how weather-driven variability interacts with high PV adoption and potential storage or curtailment mitigation strategies.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS2022

Cable Decoupling and Cable-Based Stiffening of Continuum Robots

Cable-driven continuum robots, which are robots with a continuously flexible backbone and no identifiable joints that are actuated by cables, have shown great potential for many applications in unstructured, uncertain environments. However, the standard design for a cable-driven continuum robot segment, which bends a continuous backbone along a circular arc, has many compliant modes of deformation which are uncontrolled, and which may result in buckling or other undesirable behaviors if not ameliorated. In this paper, we detail an approach for using additional cables to selectively stiffen planar cable-driven robots with-out substantial coupling to the actuating cables. A mechanics-based model based on the planar Cosserat equations is used to find the design conditions under which additional cables can be routed without coupling of the cable lengths for small deformations. Simulations show that even for relatively large deformations, coupling remains small. A prototype is evaluated, and it is demonstrated that the compliance of the robot is substantially modified relative to the same robot without stiffening cables. Additional stiffening cables are shown to increase the end-effector output stiffness by a factor of approximately 10 over a typical design with actuating cables.

Tendon/wire mechanism↗

NASA NTRS1992

Advanced software development workstation. Comparison of two object-oriented development methodologies

This report is an attempt to clarify some of the concerns raised about the OMT method, specifically that OMT is weaker than the Booch method in a few key areas. This interim report specifically addresses the following issues: (1) is OMT object-oriented or only data-driven?; (2) can OMT be used as a front-end to implementation in C++?; (3) the inheritance concept in OMT is in contradiction with the 'pure and real' inheritance concept found in object-oriented (OO) design; (4) low support for software life-cycle issues, for project and risk management; (5) uselessness of functional modeling for the ROSE project; and (6) problems with event-driven and simulation systems. The conclusion of this report is that both Booch's method and Rumbaugh's method are good OO methods, each with strengths and weaknesses in different areas of the development process.

Izygon, Michel E.↗

DOE OSTI2025

Model Residuals as Shields: A Two-Level Formulation to Defend Smart Grids From Poisoning Attacks

The advancement of smart grids presents both vast opportunities and heightened cybersecurity risks. Data-driven defense mechanisms, though designed as a shield against these threats, can fall prey to poisoning attacks. We delve into regression settings, underscoring the imperative to fortify defenses against a spectrum of poison ratios, notably those above 0.5—an issue scarcely addressed in prior studies. Recognizing the susceptibilities of smart grids and their manipulable sensors, we exploit the very intent of poisoning attacks, compromising model accuracy, as our defense mechanism. Our proposed two-level optimization framework discerns between poisoned and authentic data based on model residuals, outperforming or matching existing methods in 72% to 77% of precision and 75% to 80% of recalls across various poisoning attacks, poison ratios, and datasets. Once the authentic data are identified, the trained model is adaptable for a variety of applications. Comprehensive evaluations on different smart grid datasets, pitted against myriad poisoning schemes, validate our methodology’s edge over existing methods. Here, we also shed light on the implications of model misspecification originating from temporal auto-correlation, a common feature in Internet of Things and smart grid data.

Adversarial machine learning (ML)↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observation of Iso-Symmetric Structural and Lifshitz Transitions in Quasi-One-Dimensional CrNbSe 5

Chalcogenides-rich transition metal compounds host a rich landscape of emergent quantum phenomena that are intimately governed by their quasi-onedimensional chemical-bonding frameworks and their response to external perturbations such as pressure. Here, we report a pressure-induced iso-symmetric structural transition in the quasi-one-dimensional compound CrNbSe 5 , in which the electronic ground state is controlled not by symmetry breaking but by a continuous reorganization of local bonding interactions. Applied pressure reversibly tunes CrNbSe 5 between semiconducting and semimetallic states, enabling access to low- and high-carrier electronic regimes through direct modulation of metal−chalcogen bonding. High-pressure singlecrystal X-ray diffraction directly resolves the evolution of Cr−Se and Nb−Se bond distances, coordination polyhedra, and connectivity, revealing a fully reversible semimetal−semiconductor−semimetal transition driven by gradual yet cooperative bond rearrangements within a preserved crystallographic symmetry. In contrast to chemical substitution, which irreversibly alters composition and introduces disorder, pressure acts as a clean, continuous control parameter that reshapes the bonding landscape without disrupting structural symmetry. These results establish CrNbSe 5 as a model system for electronically driven phase switching via tunable chemical bonding, highlighting iso-symmetric bond reorganization as a powerful design principle for pressure-controlled electronic and spintronic functionalities.

Compression↗

DOE OSTI2023

Foundations of machine learning for low-temperature plasmas: methods and case studies

Abstract Machine learning (ML) and artificial intelligence have proven to be an invaluable tool in tackling a vast array of scientific, engineering, and societal problems. The main drivers behind the recent proliferation of ML in practically all aspects of science and technology can be attributed to: (a) improved data acquisition and inexpensive data storage; (b) exponential growth in computing power; and (c) availability of open-source software and resources that have made the use of state-of-the-art ML algorithms widely accessible. The impact of ML on the field of low-temperature plasmas (LTPs) could be particularly significant in the emerging applications that involve plasma treatment of complex interfaces in areas ranging from the manufacture of microelectronics and processing of quantum materials, to the LTP-driven electrification of the chemical industry, and to medicine and biotechnology. This is primarily due to the complex and poorly-understood nature of the plasma-surface interactions in these applications that pose unique challenges to the modeling, diagnostics, and predictive control of LTPs. As the use of ML is becoming more prevalent, it is increasingly paramount for the LTP community to be able to critically analyze and assess the concepts and techniques behind data-driven approaches. To this end, the goal of this paper is to provide a tutorial overview of some of the widely-used ML methods that can be useful, amongst others, for discovering and correlating patterns in the data that may be otherwise impractical to decipher by human intuition alone, for learning multivariable nonlinear data-driven prediction models that are capable of describing the complex behavior of plasma interacting with interfaces, and for guiding the design of experiments to explore the parameter space of plasma-assisted processes in a systematic and resource-efficient manner. We illustrate the utility of various supervised, unsupervised and active learning methods using LTP datasets consisting of commonly-available, information-rich measurements (e.g. optical emission spectra, current–voltage characteristics, scanning electron microscope images, infrared surface temperature measurements, Fourier transform infrared spectra). All the ML demonstrations presented in this paper are carried out using open-source software; the datasets and codes are made publicly available. The FAIR guiding principles for scientific data management and stewardship can accelerate the adoption and development of ML in the LTP community.

Physics↗

DOE OSTI2024

CMLM (Co-Optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds) [SWR-23-41]

Co-optimized Machine-Learned Manifolds (CMLM) is a data-driven approach for developing reduced-order manifold models for high-dimensional chemically reacting systems. It involves a specially designed neural network, the training of which simultaneously optimizes linear combinations of species that define the manifold, nonlinear mapping to outputs of interest such as reaction rates, and (optionally) subfilter closure for large eddy simulation. This software package provides an implementation of the CMLM approach in Python using the PyTorch machine learning library. A few example cases are included, showing how the tool can be applied to different types of data from 0D and 1D reacting simulations performed using Cantera. The neural networks can be saved in a format that is readable by the Pele suite of combustion solvers for use in reacting computational fluid dynamics simulations. This software repository contains several python scripts to perform various tasks associated with the Co-optimized Machine Learned Manifolds (CMLM) model, which is described in Perry, Henry de Frahan, and Yellapantula, CNF, 2022 (https://doi.org/10.1016/j.combustflame.2022.112286). This includes not only the code that defines the CMLM model, but also scripts to generate suitable training data, scripts to pre-process the data, scripts to train the CMLM model, and scripts to plot the output, as well as various other helper files. The scripts depend on several commonly used python libraries for data analysis and chemical reaction computations. The trained models that result from this tool are designed to work with the an interface being implemented in the Pele suite of reacting flow solvers (https://github.com/AMReX-Combustion).

Perry, Bruce↗

NASA NTRS2008

Strategic Analysis Overview

NASA s Constellation Program employs a strategic analysis methodology in providing an integrated analysis capability of Lunar exploration scenarios and to support strategic decision-making regarding those scenarios. The strategic analysis methodology integrates the assessment of the major contributors to strategic objective satisfaction performance, affordability, and risk and captures the linkages and feedbacks between all three components. Strategic analysis supports strategic decision making by senior management through comparable analysis of alternative strategies, provision of a consistent set of high level value metrics, and the enabling of cost-benefit analysis. The tools developed to implement the strategic analysis methodology are not element design and sizing tools. Rather, these models evaluate strategic performance using predefined elements, imported into a library from expert-driven design/sizing tools or expert analysis. Specific components of the strategic analysis tool set include scenario definition, requirements generation, mission manifesting, scenario lifecycle costing, crew time analysis, objective satisfaction benefit, risk analysis, and probabilistic evaluation. Results from all components of strategic analysis are evaluated a set of pre-defined figures of merit (FOMs). These FOMs capture the high-level strategic characteristics of all scenarios and facilitate direct comparison of options. The strategic analysis methodology that is described in this paper has previously been applied to the Space Shuttle and International Space Station Programs and is now being used to support the development of the baseline Constellation Program lunar architecture. This paper will present an overview of the strategic analysis methodology and will present sample results from the application of the strategic analysis methodology to the Constellation Program lunar architecture.

Cirillo, William M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Identification of Grand-design and Flocculent spirals from SDSS using deep convolutional neural network

ABSTRACT Spiral galaxies can be classified into the Grand-designs and Flocculents based on the nature of their spiral arms. The Grand-designs exhibit almost continuous and high contrast spiral arms and are believed to be driven by stationary density waves, while the Flocculents have patchy and low-contrast spiral features and are primarily stochastic in origin. We train a deep convolutional neural network model to classify spirals into Grand-designs and Flocculents, with a testing accuracy of $\mathrm{97.2{{\ \rm per\ cent}}}$. We then use the above model for classifying 1354 spirals from the SDSS. Out of these, 721 were identified as Flocculents, and the rest as Grand-designs. Interestingly, we find the mean asymptotic rotational velocities of our newly classified Grand-designs and Flocculents are 218 ± 86 and 146 ± 67 km s−1, respectively, indicating that the Grand-designs are mostly the high-mass and the Flocculents the intermediate-mass spirals. This is further corroborated by the observation that the mean morphological indices of the Grand-designs and Flocculents are 2.6 ± 1.8 and 4.7 ± 1.9, respectively, implying that the Flocculents primarily consist of a late-type galaxy population in contrast to the Grand-designs. Finally, an almost equal fraction of bars ∼0.3 in both the classes of spiral galaxies reveals that the presence of a bar component does not regulate the type of spiral arm hosted by a galaxy. Our results may have important implications for formation and evolution of spiral arms in galaxies.

Astronomy & Astrophysics↗

DOE OSTI2025

Data-driven modeling of dynamic occupant thermostat override behavior for demand response applications

Buildings consume nearly 40% of global energy and produce similar emissions. Whiletechnological advances address efficiency, occupant behavior causes energy use variations up to 300% between identical buildings. This gap between predicted and actual building performance impacts building design, operations, and grid demand management programs. Through analyses of smart thermostat data from 1,400 single-occupant homes, the researchdemonstrates that occupants respond to 8°F thermostat setpoint changes within a median of 15 minutes, while 2°F changes trigger responses within a median of 30 minutes. This highlights an understudied temporal relationship between thermostat setbacks and response time of occupant behaviors. Models of such behavior dynamics are required to incorporate occupant impacts into building performance simulation. A key contribution of this dissertation is the Thermal Frustration Theory (TFT), which positsthat thermal discomfort driven behaviors are caused by the time-accumulation of discomfort, not simply a temperature deviation threshold or a delay from an initiating event. Using a dataset of 634 thermostats, each with 25+ manual setpoint changes, a comparative analysis of TFT and comfort zone and a delayed response theories demonstrated that personalized TFT models better predict when manual setpoint change occur. This was measured by the area under the curve statistical measure (AUC); all three models perform similarly by a Matthews Correlation Coefficient measure. Higher AUC performance is especially important for modeling occupant behavior in demand response programs where false negatives of rare occupant interactions could adversely affect grid stability. EnergyPlus based simulations were conducted with TFT-derived occupant models, demonstrating the ability to identify parameters of known TFT models from only data observable with smart thermostats, even under the presence of noise from routine overrides. Overall, the dissertation highlights that thermostat interactions are neither static,instantaneous, nor driven solely by the environment. Instead, temporal accumulation of discomfort and routine-based behavior play important roles. The methodology and results offer a pathway towards more accurate modeling of human-building interactions for policy assessment, building design, and demand response programs.

Sharma, Kunind [Northeastern University] (ORCID:00↗