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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 271 records · Page 15

Cyclone Fani: the tug-of-war between regional warming and anthropogenic aerosol effects

Before Cyclone Amphan took place in 2020, Cyclone Fani (May 2019) is the strongest pre-monsoon cyclone in the Bay of Bengal (BOB) since 1991, killing 90 people in eastern India and Bangladesh while causing US$1.81 billion of damages. Fani developed during a period of high concentration of anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB with abnormally high sea surface temperature (SST), thereby presenting an opportunity to understand the compound effects of atmospheric aerosols and regional climate warming on a tropical cyclone. A quantitative attribution analysis was conducted using the Weather Research and Forecasting model with chemistry (WRF-Chem) run at the convection-permitting (4 km) grid spacing, accompanied by an ensemble of coarser-resolution simulations to quantify the uncertainty. The removal of post-1990 trends in the tropospheric variables and SST from WRF-Chem's initial conditions (IC) and boundary conditions (BC, including the lateral and lower boundary conditions) resulted in a reduction of cyclone precipitation by about 51% during the 5 d of April 28-May 2. The removal of tropospheric warming shows approximately twice as strong an effect on Fani (39% reduction in precipitation) as that of SST warming (22% reduction). When aerosol's direct and indirect effects were removed from the simulations, i.e., no aerosol influence on radiation and cloud microphysics, Fani initially strengthened but later weakened, as measured by geopotential height and precipitation amounts. These results suggest that aerosol and its interaction with the atmosphere acted to mitigate the strengthening effect of anthropogenic warming on Fani, but was not strong enough to entirely counteract it. Although the ensemble of coarser simulations appears to overestimate Cyclone Fani in terms of precipitation, the direction of the effects is in agreement with that obtained from the 4 km simulations. Given the increasing anthropogenic aerosols in the BOB, future attribution studies using more sophisticated dynamical aerosol models on BOB tropical cyclones are urged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

On the Use of Satellite Nightlights for Power Outages Prediction

Hurricanes are a dominant disaster in the Caribbean, always causing serious power outages throughout the islands. Hurricane Maria was a prime example, causing unimaginable destruction of the power infrastructure of Puerto Rico (PR). Consequently, one month after the hurricane landfall, approximately 80% of the population was still without power. After an event of such massive destruction, the electric power restoration process progresses very slowly. This timeline can be improved using power outage (PO) forecast models that help identify the vulnerable places before the hurricane landfall. Generally, these models are trained with historical power outages records, associated data on weather conditions, and additional information about the natural and built environments. However, PO records are often difficult to acquire, and, in many instances, the power utility companies may not record them. This study utilizes a satellite-based Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) night light data product as a surrogate for the power delivery to predict hurricane-induced PO in areas having limited to nonexistent historical data records. The processed satellite data is then used along with geographic variables, and simulated weather data to formulate machine learning-based algorithms to predict PO for future hurricane events. These models are applied and validated in the context of the PR catastrophic storm, Hurricane Maria.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Topological Guided Detection of Extreme Wind Phenomena: Implications for Wind Energy

Extreme wind phenomena play a crucial role in the efficient operation of wind farms for renewable energy generation. However, existing detection methods are computationally expensive, limited to specific coordinate. In real-world scenarios, understanding the occurrence of these phenomena over a large area is essential. Therefore, there is a significant demand for a fast and accurate approach to forecast such events. In this paper, we propose a novel method for detecting wind phenomena using topological analysis, leveraging the gradient of wind speed or critical points in a topological framework. By extracting topological features from the wind speed profile within a defined region, we employ topological distance to identify extreme wind phenomena. Our results demonstrate the effectiveness of utilizing topological features derived from regional wind speed profiles. We validate our approach using high-resolution simulations with the Weather Research and Forecasting model (WRF) over a month in the US East Coast.

MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING,WIND ENERGY↗

Dynamic Bayesian Networks for Fault Prognosis

A dynamic Bayesian Network (DBN)-based fault prognosis framework is proposed in this study to predict the future fault probabilities of gradual faults. The proposed framework utilizes the trend in prediction error generated from data driven forecasting models to estimate the future fault beliefs. The accuracy and scalability of the proposed method is evaluated using the data from a Modelica-based virtual testbed. Overall, the developed framework demonstrates good potential in estimating future fault probabilities of gradual faults.

Pradhan, Ojas↗

The Influence of ENSO Diversity on Future Atlantic Tropical Cyclone Activity

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) influences seasonal Atlantic tropical cyclone (TC) activity by impacting environmental conditions important for TC genesis. However, the influence of future climate change on the teleconnection between ENSO and Atlantic TCs is uncertain, as climate change is expected to impact both ENSO and the mean climate state. We used the Weather Research and Forecasting Model on a tropical channel domain to simulate 5-member ensembles of Atlantic TC seasons in historical and future climates under different ENSO conditions. Experiments were forced with idealized sea surface temperature configurations based on the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Large Ensemble representing: a monthly varying climatology, eastern Pacific El Niño, central Pacific El Niño, and La Niña. The historical simulations produced fewer Atlantic TCs during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño, consistent with observations and other modeling studies. For each ENSO state, the future simulations produced a similar teleconnection with Atlantic TCs as in the historical simulations. Specifically, La Niña continues to enhance Atlantic TC activity, and El Niño continues to suppress Atlantic TCs, with greater suppression during eastern Pacific El Niño compared to central Pacific El Niño. In addition, we found a decrease in the Atlantic TC frequency in the future relative to historical regardless of ENSO state, which was associated with a future increase in northern tropical Atlantic vertical wind shear and a future decrease in the zonal tropical Pacific sea surface temperature (SST) gradient, corresponding to a more El Niño–like mean climate state. Our results indicate that ENSO will remain useful for seasonal Atlantic TC prediction in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Impacts of Stochastic Mixing in Idealized Convection-Permitting Simulations of Squall Lines

This study investigates impacts of altering subgrid-scale mixing in “convection-permitting” kilometer-scale horizontal-grid-spacing (Δ h ) simulations by applying either constant or stochastic multiplicative factors to the horizontal mixing coefficients within the Weather Research and Forecasting Model. In quasi-idealized 1-km Δ h simulations of two observationally based squall-line cases, constant enhanced mixing produces larger updraft cores that are more dilute at upper levels, weakens the cold pool, rear-inflow jet, and front-to-rear flow of the squall line, and degrades the model’s effective resolution. Reducing mixing by a constant multiplicative factor has the opposite effect on all metrics. Completely turning off parameterized horizontal mixing produces bulk updraft statistics and squall-line mesoscale structure closest to an LES “benchmark” among all 1-km simulations, although the updraft cores are too undilute. The stochastic mixing scheme, which applies a multiplicative factor to the mixing coefficients that varies stochastically in time and space, is employed at 0.5-, 1-, and 2-km Δ h . It generally reduces midlevel vertical velocities and enhances upper-level vertical velocities compared to simulations using the standard mixing scheme, with more substantial impacts at 1- and 2-km Δ h compared to 0.5-km Δ h . Further, the stochastic scheme also increases updraft dilution to better agree with the LES for one case, but has less impact on the other case. Stochastic mixing acts to weaken the cold pool but without a significant impact on squall-line propagation. It also does not affect the model’s overall effective resolution unlike applying constant multiplicative factors to the mixing coefficients.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Evaluation of Turbulence and Dispersion in Multiscale Atmospheric Simulations over Complex Urban Terrain during the Joint Urban 2003 Field Campaign

Abstract This paper evaluates the representation of turbulence and its effect on transport and dispersion within multiscale and microscale-only simulations in an urban environment. These simulations, run using the Weather Research and Forecasting Model with the addition of an immersed boundary method, predict transport and mixing during a controlled tracer release from the Joint Urban 2003 field campaign in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma. This work extends the results of a recent study through analysis of turbulence kinetic energy and turbulence spectra and their role in accurately simulating wind speed, direction, and tracer concentration. The significance and role of surface heat fluxes and use of the cell perturbation method in the numerical simulation setup are also examined. Our previous study detailed the model development necessary for our multiscale simulations, examined model skill at predicting wind speeds and tracer concentrations, and demonstrated that dynamic downscaling from mesoscale to microscale through a sequence of nested simulations can improve predictions of transport and dispersion relative to a microscale-only simulation forced by idealized meteorology. Here, predictions are compared with observations to assess qualitative agreement and statistical model skill at predicting wind speed, wind direction, tracer concentration, and turbulent kinetic energy at locations throughout the city. We also investigate the scale distribution of turbulence and the associated impact on model skill, particularly for predictions of transport and dispersion. Our results show that downscaled large-scale turbulence, which is unique to the multiscale simulations, significantly improves predictions of tracer concentrations in this complex urban environment. Significance Statement Simulations of atmospheric transport and mixing in urban environments have many applications, including pollution modeling for urban planning or informing emergency response following a hazardous release. These applications include phenomena with spatial scales spanning from millimeters to kilometers. Most simulations resolve flow only within the urban area of interest, omitting larger scales of turbulence and regional influences. This study examines a method that resolves both the small and large-scale flow features. We evaluate simulation accuracy by comparing predictions with observations from an experiment involving the release of a tracer gas in Oklahoma City, Oklahoma, with emphasis on correctly modeling turbulent fluctuations. Our results demonstrate the importance of resolving large-scale flow features when predicting transport and dispersion in urban environments.

42 ENGINEERING↗

2007 Chicago Regional Household Travel Inventory

To provide data for developing and refining travel demand forecast models, the 2007 Regional Household Travel Inventory studied the demographic and travel behavior characteristics of residents in the greater Chicago area. It included households in eight counties in Illinois and three in Indiana. The Chicago Metropolitan Agency for Planning conducted the study in coordination with the Illinois Department of Transportation, the Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission, and the Indiana Department of Transportation. Travel and activity information for all household members (regardless of age) was collected during a randomly assigned 24- or 48-hour period. It relied on the willingness of households to provide detailed information about their members and vehicles, and to record all travel and associated activity during the collection period. This study also featured a subsample of households collecting data via in-vehicle and wearable global positioning system devices.

1Hz data↗

2008 NIRPC Household Travel Inventory

The Northwestern Indiana Regional Planning Commission (NIRPC) Household Travel Inventory, also sponsored by the Indiana Department of Transportation, is a comprehensive study of the demographic and travel of residents of Lake, Porter, and La Porte counties in northwest Indiana. The primary objective of the study was to provide data for the continued development and refinement of the Indiana regional travel demand forecast models. 3,838 households from northwest Indiana participated in the survey, which entailed the collection of activity and travel information for all household members regardless of age during a randomly assigned 24- or 48-hour period. NIRPC travel survey data provided the information required on base-year daily trips made by study area residents to the Chicago CBD. This travel market is treated separately because of the importance of transit for its travelers.

1Hz data↗

1999 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey

The 1999 Puget Sound Household Travel Survey was conducted between July and November. NuStats Research and Consulting conducted the survey on behalf of the Puget Sound Regional Council. The purpose of the study was to provide data to continue developing and refining the Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Model, as well as to provide a better understanding of travel behavior in the Puget Sound region. The study area consists of King, Kitsap, Pierce, and Snohomish counties. The resultant dataset will be used to fulfill the model's functions of estimating trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and assignments. The study had household members 16 years old or older keep track of travel for a 48-hour period. A total of 9,028 households were recruited to participate in the study. Of these, 6,000 households (66.5%) completed travel diaries, and the information was retrieved from all household members regardless of age. An “attitude” survey about transportation and land use issues was also mailed to household members 16 years old or older.

1Hz data↗

1994 Household Travel Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board (COG/TPB) periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1994 Household Travel Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. In two waves during the spring and fall of 1994, consultants for COG/TPB conducted a survey of daily travel by persons living in area households. The survey file contains travel information associated with 4,863 households residing in 13 jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C., region (approximately a 1-in-300 sample). The survey file contains 39,800 internal trip records with respect to the expanded cordon.

1Hz data↗

1998/99 Thurston County Household Travel Study

The survey was conducted under the auspices of the Thurston Regional Planning Council, and it was funded through a state grant awarded to Intercity Transit of Olympia, Washington. Data collection was from September 1998 through March 1999. The purpose of the study was to provide data for the continuing development and refinement of the Regional Travel Demand Forecasting Model, as well as to provide a better understanding of travel behavior in the southern Puget Sound region of Washington. The resultant data set will be used to fulfill the model's functions of estimating trip generation and distribution, mode choice, and assignments. Participating households were assigned specific “travel days” to record their travel over a 48-hour period. A total of 2,465 households were recruited to participate in the study. Of these, 1,537 households completed travel diaries, and the information was retrieved from 3,653 household members regardless of age. Households member made 25,278 total trips during their 48-hour diary period.

1Hz data↗

1968 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Home Interview Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1968 Home Interview Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. The survey sampled 26,000 households residing in six jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C. region (an approximately 1-in-20 sample).

1Hz data↗

1987/88 Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board Home Interview Survey

The Metropolitan Washington Council of Governments/National Capital Region Transportation Planning Board periodically conducts regional household travel surveys to monitor changes in daily travel and to gather information on the demographic, socioeconomic, and trip-making characteristics of Washington, D.C.-area residents. Information collected in the 1987/88 Home Interview Survey was an important component in the development of regional travel demand forecasting models used to predict changes in daily travel in response to current development trends and changes in regional transportation policies and programs. The survey sampled 8,000 households residing in eight jurisdictions comprising the greater Washington, D.C. region (an approximately 1-in-166 sample).

1Hz data↗

DeepShake: Shaking Intensity Prediction Using Deep Spatiotemporal RNNs for Earthquake Early Warning

Abstract We propose a deep spatiotemporal recurrent neural network, DeepShake, to project future shaking intensity directly from current ground-motion observations. DeepShake is a network-based forecasting model, able to predict future shaking intensity at all stations within a network given previously measured ground shaking. The model is not given any a priori knowledge of station locations; instead, it learns wave propagation amplitudes and delays solely from training data. We developed DeepShake with the 35,679 earthquakes from the 2019 Ridgecrest sequence. Tasked with alerting for modified Mercalli intensity (MMI) IV+ shaking on 3568 validation earthquakes at least 5 s in advance, DeepShake achieves an equal error rate of 11.4%. For the Mw 7.1 earthquake that hit Ridgecrest on 5 July 2019, DeepShake was able to provide targeted alerts to all stations inside the network 5 s prior to the arrival of MMI IV+ waveforms. DeepShake demonstrates that deep spatiotemporal neural networks can effectively provide one-step earthquake early warning with reasonable accuracy and latency.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

EpiCast: Simulating Epidemics with Extreme Detail

In early 2020, COVID-19 swept the globe. Governments attempted to “flatten the curve” through business shutdowns and stay-at-home orders, but the United States was hit hard. By the end of March, mere months after the virus first emerged in humans 7,000 miles away, the U.S. had recorded 192,300 cases and 5,300 deaths. While this unprecedented disaster sent shockwaves through every level of society and clouded an uncertain future, state and local governments turned to computational and mathematical epidemiology researchers to help formulate intervention strategies to limit the spread of the disease. Traditional forecasting models provided a reasonable understanding of how the near future was likely to look, but local policy makers and public health communities still struggled to understand how potential mitigations ought to be implemented. Decision makers needed a way to measure the impact of their policy choices—they needed better technology. EpiCast answered the call, bringing urgently needed answers to policymakers grappling with how to adjust school and business schedules. EpiCast is modeling software that generates a synthetic, representative population to simulate infectious disease transmission in the United States with extreme detail and granularity. The software models human behavior combined with community-specific information to provide a fine-grained preview of the effect of potential mitigation strategies for decision makers.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantifying the Tangible Value of Public Electric Vehicle Charging Infrastructure

The lack of an extensive public recharging infrastructure is an important barrier to the growth of the plug-in electric vehicle (PEV) market. Because charging infrastructure is likely to be underutilized during the early stages of market development, it is difficult for decision makers to decide how much to invest in public charging stations. Quantifying the value of public charging infrastructure to current and potential future owners of PEVs is essential for estimating the benefits of charging stations to current PEV owners and for predicting the impact on future PEV sales. This paper estimates consumers’ willingness to pay for public charging infrastructure in the context of utility maximization. The objective is to provide a method for valuing charging infrastructure that can inform investment decisions and be used in forecasting models to predict the impacts on future PEV sales. A basic theory of the tangible value of charging infrastructure is developed as a function of PEV type, range, recharging time and existing infrastructure. Existing simulation studies provide functional relationships that quantify the ability of charging infrastructure to enable additional miles of electrified travel. The enabled travel functions are used to predict impact of infrastructure deployment on incremental electrified travel for 1) plug-in hybrids and 2) intra-regional and 3) inter-regional travel by all-electric vehicles. The willingness to pay for increased electrified miles is derived from the willingness to pay for increased electric driving range, based on econometric studies of plug-in vehicle choice. The result is a set of three functions that can be used to calculate the marginal willingness-to-pay for public charging infrastructure as a function of vehicle attributes, existing charging infrastructure, energy prices and annual vehicle travel.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

Connecting the Radiative Influences of Aerosol upon the Mass Flux Profiles of Shallow Cumuli across the Southeast Atlantic Ocean Basin and its Boundaries (Final Report)

The Atlantic Ocean covers approximately 25% of Earth’s surface and the atmosphere above it is home to a complex array of clouds and aerosols that have important influences on regional and global weather and climate. These influences must be accurately depicted in short range, medium range, seasonal, and climate forecast models. Conditions over the tropical Atlantic are particularly complex due to continental scale plumes of dust from the Sahara Desert and smoke from agricultural burning in Africa that drift across the Atlantic Ocean basin toward the Americas. These plumes are often found meandering in the lower atmosphere above shallow tropical clouds that form above the ocean surface, presumably mingling with these clouds on occasion due to convective mixing processes. Elevated dust and smoke particles absorb incoming sunlight and substantially warm the marine atmosphere in the layer in which they are present. This warming may alter the thermal stability of the marine atmosphere and may throttle or enhance the development of clouds, change their internal structure and the rate at which they precipitate. Alternatively, it may isolate the lower atmosphere from drier layers above enabling water vapor to accumulate near the ocean surface potentially leading to the development of deeper convection. Our study was organized around the principal concept of determining the impact of African smoke and dust plumes upon cloud development at ASI and understanding how a popular shallow convection parameterization used in models responds to the presence of this aerosol. We analyzed observations collected during the US Department of Energy (DOE) Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign using the Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Program’s Mobile Facility #1 (AMF-1), which was deployed to Ascension Island (ASI) in Southeastern Atlantic for a one-year period. Ascension Island is immediately downwind from an African source of these plumes, but far enough removed to enable the lower atmosphere to have reacted to their presence. A main goal of our study was to compute radiative heating rate profiles over Ascension Island and along the trajectory from the biomass burning regions along coastal Africa to Ascension Island. To compute the radiative heating rate due to aerosols and clouds, we employed observed profiles of temperature, humidity, and clouds from LASIC alongside aerosol optical properties from the Modern-era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications Version 2 (MERRA-2), as input for the Rapid Radiation Transfer Model (RRTM). Radiative heating was also assessed across the southeast Atlantic Ocean using an ensemble of back trajectories from the Hybrid Single Particle Lagrangian Integrated Trajectory (HYSPLIT) model. We were successful in this effort and the resulting publication is already being cited despite its relatively short lifetime in the literature. The second part of our study involved the process-level representation of the clouds observed over the Southeastern Atlantic in models. Our initial task, upon which the balance of this portion of the study depended, was to evaluate the representativeness of the clouds observed by AMF-1. What orographic influence did Ascension Island have on the measured cloud structure? We set out to answer this question by trying to separate observations that were clearly indicative of orographic forcing from those that were representative of open ocean. The siting of AMF-1, which was 340-m above sea-level on the slope of a steep escarpment, proved demonstrably problematic for cloud process measurements. Despite considerable effort using multiple approaches including artificial intelligence (AI), we were unable to successfully compensate for the orographic forcing present at the AMF-1 site on ASI and, hence, produce process-level summaries of the convective mass flux representative of open ocean over the Southeastern Atlantic. Even though the project has officially ended, we are making a final attempt using two new types of clustering algorithm (i.e., AI) on the recommendation of a former student, who is an expert in this area. Since we have only recently begun to test these new AI schemes, the recommendations from the second part of our project outlined below are based on our experience at the time of this report.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗