Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “patterns in complex systems”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 271 records · Page 15
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Hourly PM 2.5 Estimates across California from 2018 to 2023

This study presents a new data set of hourly PM 2.5 concentrations across California from 2018 to 2023 at a three-kilometer resolution. This data set was developed by assimilating observations from PurpleAir and the U.S. EPA Air Quality System monitors into wildfire smoke forecasts from the High-Resolution Rapid Refresh Smoke (HRRR-Smoke) model using the Gridpoint Statistical Interpolation (GSI) three-dimensional variational data assimilation framework. Archived forecasts of modeled wildfire smoke PM 2.5 from HRRR-Smoke create the background field for assimilation, which is then corrected using surface observations of total PM 2.5 . The resulting reanalysis from GSI provides an estimate of total PM 2.5 that minimizes error from both the observational and the model data. Validation results indicate strong performance, with monthly R 2 values ranging from 0.73 to 0.91 across the six-year data set, comparable to other PM 2.5 data sets. Case studies are presented for three major fire events, the 2018 Camp Fire, 2019 Kincade Fire, and 2020 Lightning Complex Fires to demonstrate the data set’s fidelity in resolving plume dynamics and local exposure patterns. Root-mean-squared error averaged over each month scales with average PM 2.5 concentrations, resulting in a low error under typical conditions but higher absolute errors during extreme smoke events. This is the first long-term, hourly PM 2.5 data set of its kind for California and enables the generation of subdaily exposure metrics, such as peak hourly concentrations, exceedance durations, and time-of-day exposure peaks. The novelty and strong validation of this data set make it a compelling resource for future studies on the impact and significance of subdaily PM 2.5 exposure.

PM2.5↗
DOE OSTI2020

Programming Amphiphilic Peptoid Oligomers for Hierarchical Assembly and Inorganic Crystallization

Natural organisms make a wide variety of exquisitely complex, nano-, micro-, and macroscale structured materials in an energy-efficient and highly reproducible manner. During these processes, the information-carrying biomolecules (e.g., proteins, peptides, and carbohydrates) enable (1) hierarchical organization to assemble scaffold materials and execute high-level functions and (2) exquisite control over inorganic materials synthesis, generating biominerals whose properties are optimized for their functions. Inspired by nature, significant efforts have been devoted to developing functional materials that can rival those natural molecules by mimicking in vivo functions using engineered proteins, peptides, DNAs, sequence-defined synthetic molecules (e.g., peptoids), and other biomimetic polymers. Among them, peptoids, a new type of synthetic mimetics of peptides and proteins, have received particular attention because they combine the merits of both synthetic polymers (e.g., high chemical stability and efficient synthesis) and biomolecules (e.g., sequence programmability and biocompatibility). The lack of both chirality and hydrogen bonds in their backbone results in a highly designable peptoid-based system with reduced structural complexity and side chain-chemistry-dominated properties. Here in this Account, we present our recent efforts in this field by programming amphiphilic peptoid sequences for (1) the controlled self-assembly into different hierarchically structured nanomaterials with favorable properties and (2) manipulating inorganic (nano)crystal nucleation, growth, and assembly into superstructures. First, we designed a series of amphiphilic peptoids with controlled side chain chemistries that self-assembled into 1D highly stiff and dynamic nanotubes, 2D membrane-mimetic nanosheets, hexagonally patterned nanoribbons, and 3D nanoflowers. These crystalline nanostructures exhibited sequence-dependent properties and showed promise for different applications. The corresponding peptoid self-assembly pathways and mechanisms were also investigated by leveraging in situ atomic force microscopy studies and molecular dynamics simulations, which showed precise sequence dependency. Second, inspired by peptide- and protein-controlled formation of hierarchical inorganic nanostructures in nature, we developed peptoid-based biomimetic approaches for controlled synthesis of inorganic materials (e.g., noble metals and calcite), in which we took advantage of the substantial side chain chemistry of peptoids and investigated the relationship between the peptoid sequences and the morphology and growth kinetics of inorganic materials. For example, to overcome the challenges (e.g., complexity of protein- and peptide-folding, poor thermal and chemical stabilities) facing the area of protein- and peptide-controlled synthesis of inorganic materials, we recently reported the design of sequence-defined peptoids for controlled synthesis of highly branched plasmonic gold particles. Moreover, we developed a rule of thumb for designing peptoids that predictively enabled the morphological evolution from spherical to coral-shaped gold nanoparticles (NPs). With this Account, we hope to stimulate the research interest of chemists and materials scientists and promote the predictive synthesis of functional and robust materials through the design of sequence-defined synthetic molecules.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2026

LaueMatching: an approach for rapid and robust indexing of Laue diffraction patterns

Traditional Laue diffraction pattern indexing often struggles with noisy data, weak signals, peak overlap and missing reflections, particularly from complex or deformed microstructures. Here, we introduce LaueMatching, a high-throughput indexing algorithm designed to overcome these limitations. LaueMatching utilizes a fundamentally different approach based on direct pattern correlation: experimentally pre-processed images are compared against a comprehensive pre-computed library of simulated diffraction patterns corresponding to a dense grid of possible orientations. This approach bypasses the need for explicit peak identification and fitting, steps that are often a failure point for traditional methods. The algorithm rapidly and robustly indexes multiple crystallographic orientations and crystal systems simultaneously, even from challenging patterns. LaueMatching's effectiveness and accuracy have been rigorously tested and validated on diverse experimental (Ni, Al, EuAl 2 O 4 ) and simulated diffraction patterns, demonstrating high-fidelity orientation refinement. Code to implement this approach on both CPU and GPU resources can be downloaded from https://github.com/AdvancedPhotonSource/LaueMatching.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Firmware Tampering Detection in Heavy-Duty Vehicles through J1939 CAN Analysis

Modern heavy-duty vehicles rely on complex networks of Electronic Control Units (ECUs) that communicate using the J1939 protocol. While this system makes it easier to update and configure vehicle components, it also opens the door to serious cybersecurity risks if not properly secured. This work investigates the potential for firmware tampering through the J1939 communication protocol, which enables ECU configuration and reprogramming over the Controller Area Network (CAN) bus. By monitoring CAN traffic during legitimate maintenance operations and reverse-engineering OEM diagnostic software, we identified common and proprietary J1939 message identifiers, authentication patterns, and vulnerabilities within Unified Diagnostic Services (UDS). These findings demonstrate that inadequate authentication mechanisms can allow malicious actors to alter ECU firmware or disable safety functions, posing severe operational and safety risks. Our analysis contributes to the development of vehicle intrusion detection systems capable of recognizing abnormal reprogramming activity and future firmware fingerprinting methods to verify software integrity across ECUs. This work highlights the importance of standardizing secure firmware authentication across manufacturers to strengthen cyber resilience in heavy-duty vehicle systems.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2022

Spatial patterns of snow distribution in the sub-Arctic

Abstract. The spatial distribution of snow plays a vital role in sub-Arctic and Arctic climate, hydrology, and ecology due to its fundamental influence on the water balance, thermal regimes, vegetation, and carbon flux. However, the spatial distribution of snow is not well understood, and therefore, it is not well modeled, which can lead to substantial uncertainties in snow cover representations. To capture key hydro-ecological controls on snow spatial distribution, we carried out intensive field studies over multiple years for two small (2017–2019; ∼ 2.5 km2) sub-Arctic study sites located on the Seward Peninsula of Alaska. Using an intensive suite of field observations (> 22 000 data points), we developed simple models of the spatial distribution of snow water equivalent (SWE) using factors such as topographic characteristics, vegetation characteristics based on greenness (normalized different vegetation index, NDVI), and a simple metric for approximating winds. The most successful model was random forest, using both study sites and all years, which was able to accurately capture the complexity and variability of snow characteristics across the sites. Approximately 86 % of the SWE distribution could be accounted for, on average, by the random forest model at the study sites. Factors that impacted year-to-year snow distribution included NDVI, elevation, and a metric to represent coarse microtopography (topographic position index, TPI), while slope, wind, and fine microtopography factors were less important. The characterization of the SWE spatial distribution patterns will be used to validate and improve snow distribution modeling in the Department of Energy's Earth system model and for improved understanding of hydrology, topography, and vegetation dynamics in the sub-Arctic and Arctic regions of the globe.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Ultrafast Optically Induced Perturbation of Oxygen Octahedral Rotations in Multiferroic BiFeO 3 Thin Films

The functional properties of complex oxides, including magnetism and ferroelectricity, are closely linked to subtle structural distortions. Ultrafast optical excitations provide the means to manipulate structural features and ultimately to affect the functional properties of complex oxides with picosecond-scale precision. Here, we report that the lattice expansion of multiferroic BiFeO 3 following above-bandgap optical excitation leads to distortion of the oxygen octahedral rotation (OOR) pattern. The continuous coupling between OOR and strain was probed using time-resolved X-ray free-electron laser diffraction with femtosecond time resolution. Density functional theory calculations predict a relationship between the OOR and the elastic strain consistent with the experiment, demonstrating a route to employing this approach in a wider range of systems. Ultrafast control of the functional properties of BiFeO 3 thin films is enabled by this approach because the OOR phenomena are related to ferroelectricity, and via the Fe-O-Fe bond angles, the superexchange interaction between Fe atoms.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2026

Nonlinear reversal of photoexcitation on the attosecond time scale improves ultrafast X-ray diffraction images

The complex refractive index of a material governs its light-matter interactions, with intense light fields enabling tailored nonlinear optical responses. In the X-ray regime, rapid photoionization limits the potential of nonlinear techniques by inducing irreversible electronic damage. Here we demonstrate that intense, sub-femtosecond X-ray pulses, shorter than typical Auger decay times, can partially reverse photoexcitation via stimulated emission near atomic resonances. By analyzing thousands of coherent diffraction patterns and ion spectra from neon nanoparticles exposed to sub-fs and 15-fs pulses, we observe enhanced X-ray diffraction alongside reduced energy absorption for sub-fs pulses. Theoretical modeling attributes this to dynamics akin to Rabi flopping that prolong the lifetime of resonant states and suppress electronic bleaching. These findings suggest that ultrashort, intense X-ray pulses enable active control of X-ray refractive index and damage pathways, opening avenues for improved high-resolution imaging and nonlinear spectroscopy in complex nanoscale systems.

Ulmer, Anatoli [Universität Hamburg (Germany)] (OR↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chimbuko: A Workflow-Level Scalable Performance Trace Analysis Tool

Due to the sheer volume of data it is typically impractical to analyze the detailed performance of an HPC application running at-scale. While conventional small-scale benchmarking and scaling studies are often sufficient for simple applications, many modern workflow-based applications couple multiple elements with competing resource demands and complex inter-communication patterns for which performance cannot easily be studied in isolation and at small scale. This work discusses Chimbuko, a performance analysis framework that provides real-time, in situ anomaly detection. By focusing specifically on performance anomalies and their origin (aka provenance), data volumes are dramatically reduced without losing necessary details. To the best of our knowledge, Chimbuko is the first online, distributed, and scalable workflow-level performance trace analysis framework. We demonstrate the tool's usefulness on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Summit system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

A mountain-induced moist baroclinic wave test case for the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models

Idealized test cases for the dynamical cores of atmospheric general circulation models are informative tools to assess the accuracy of the numerical designs and investigate the general characteristics of atmospheric motions. A new test case is introduced that is built upon a baroclinically unstable base state with an added orographic barrier. The topography is analytically prescribed and acts as a trigger of both baroclinic Rossby waves and inertia–gravity waves on a rotating, regular-sized planet. Both dry and idealized moist configurations are suggested. The latter utilizes the Kessler warm-rain precipitation scheme. The test case enhances the complexity of the existing test suite hierarchy and focuses on the impacts of two midlatitudinal mountain ridges on the circulation. Selected simulation examples from four dynamical cores are shown. These are the Spectral Element and Finite Volume dynamical cores, which are part of the National Center for Atmospheric Research (NCAR) Community Earth System Model (CESM), versions 2.1.3 and 2.2, and the Cubed-Sphere Finite Volume dynamical cores, which is new to CESM version 2.2. In addition, the Model for Prediction Across Scales (MPAS) is tested. The overall flow patterns agree well in the four dynamical cores, but the details can vary greatly. The examples highlight the broad palette of use cases for the test case and reveal physics–dynamics coupling issues.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Chimbuko: A Workflow-Level Scalable Performance Trace Analysis Tool

ABSTRACT Due to the sheer volume of data it is typically impractical to analyze the detailed performance of an HPC application running at-scale. While conventional small-scale benchmarking and scaling studies are often sufficient for simple applications, many modern workflow-based applications couple multiple elements with competing resource demands and complex inter-communication patterns for which performance cannot easily be studied in isolation and at small scale. This work discusses Chimbuko, a performance analysis framework that provides real-time, in situ anomaly detection. By focusing specifically on performance anomalies and their origin (aka provenance), data volumes are dramatically reduced without losing necessary details. To the best of our knowledge, Chimbuko is the first online, distributed, and scalable workflow-level performance trace analysis framework. We demonstrate the tool's usefulness on Oak Ridge National Laboratory's Summit system.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2023

Data-Driven Whole-Genome Clustering to Detect Geospatial, Temporal, and Functional Trends in SARS-CoV-2 Evolution

Current methods for defining SARS-CoV-2 lineages ignore the vast majority of the SARS-CoV-2 genome. We develop and apply an exhaustive vector comparison method that directly compares all known SARS-CoV-2 genome sequences to produce novel lineage classifications. We utilize data-driven models that (i) accurately capture the complex interactions across the set of all known SARS-CoV-2 genomes, (ii) scale to leadership-class computing systems, and (iii) enable tracking how such strains evolve geospatially over time. We show that during the height of the original Omicron surge, countries across Europe, Asia, and the Americas had a spatially asynchronous distribution of Omicron sub-strains. Moreover, neighboring countries were often dominated by either different clusters of the same variant or different variants altogether throughout the pandemic. Analyses of this kind may suggest a different pattern of epidemiological risk than was understood from conventional data, as well as produce actionable insights and transform our ability to prepare for and respond to current and future biological threats.

Jacobson, Daniel↗
DOE OSTI2022

Root Pulling Force Across Drought in Maize Reveals Genotype by Environment Interactions and Candidate Genes

High-throughput, field-based characterization of root systems for hundreds of genotypes in thousands of plots is necessary for breeding and identifying loci underlying variation in root traits and their plasticity. We designed a large-scale sampling of root pulling force, the vertical force required to extract the root system from the soil, in a maize diversity panel under differing irrigation levels for two growing seasons. We then characterized the root system architecture of the extracted root crowns. We found consistent patterns of phenotypic plasticity for root pulling force for a subset of genotypes under differential irrigation, suggesting that root plasticity is predictable. Using genome-wide association analysis, we identified 54 SNPs as statistically significant for six independent root pulling force measurements across two irrigation levels and four developmental timepoints. For every significant GWAS SNP for any trait in any treatment and timepoint we conducted post hoc tests for genotype-by-environment interaction, using a mixed model ANOVA. We found that 8 of the 54 SNPs showed significant GxE. Candidate genes underlying variation in root pulling force included those involved in nutrient transport. Although they are often treated separately, variation in the ability of plant roots to sense and respond to variation in environmental resources including water and nutrients may be linked by the genes and pathways underlying this variation. While functional validation of the identified genes is needed, our results expand the current knowledge of root phenotypic plasticity at the whole plant and gene levels, and further elucidate the complex genetic architecture of maize root systems.

Woods, Patrick↗
DOE OSTI2025

A Computational Tool Compatible with NEAMS Code Packages for Optimizing the Shape of Nuclear Reactor Components and of Whole Core Performance

We designed and implemented a shape optimization tool that functions with NEAMS codes, and that nuclear scientists and engineers can employ to optimize the shape of individual components and the whole core under the applicable single- or multi-physics model comprising the employed code(s). The shape-optimization tool enables varying the geometric shape itself as well as its dimensions to yield, potentially, new component designs that are not limited by the designer’s intuition and previous experience. In cases where the optimal-shape object is an individual component, we provide the capability for additional verification that the whole-core performance using the optimized component performs better, under the prescribed optimization criteria, than the initial design. Our shape-optimization tool couples to NEAMS codes via a flexible input- composer interface and enables the user to constrain the shape’s evolution to ensure the component’s manufacturability. Finally, we demonstrate our shape-optimization tool with single- and multi-physics NEAMS codes. This objective is motivated by the recent advances in manufacturing technology that, combined with rising interest in novel reactor concepts, are creating new opportunities for innovation in the design of individual components that affect the performance of the full reactor system. In particular, Additive Manufacturing (AM) enables mass production of highly precise, intricate and complex component shapes that are not feasible with traditional manufacturing techniques. To accomplish this goal we developed and implemented in MOOSE: (1) discrete shape optimization capability based on a state-space search that uses Artificial Intelligence strategies to find the optimal state/shape; (2) smooth shape optimization tool that employs PETSc’s toolkit for advanced optimization (TAO) to optimize node-displacement of the components’ model sidesets; (3) hierarchical core optimization workflow that recognizes the repeating patterns typical in a nuclear reactor and performs the optimization one level at a time with increasing length scale. Each of these tools is equipped with user-specified constraints to avoid optimal shapes that are not manufacturable. The developed shape optimization tool is verified and demonstrated on various nuclear reactor core components and models. The optimization process accounts for tightly coupled physics that govern the behavior of these target reactors, and exercises several NEAMS codes in a coupled multiphysics fashion. The impact of the delivered shape optimization tool will materialize in the optimal design, from the outset, of advanced reactors currently contemplated to regain the US’s leadership in nuclear energy R&D. Novel reactor concepts, e.g. Molten Salt Reactors, and sizes/capacities, e.g. micro- reactors, provide a unique opportunity to optimize performance from the early stages of development, before the investment in components’ production lines, validation experiments, and licensing regimes make future improvements in performance prohibitively expensive and force sub-optimal performance on the affected reactor concept in perpetuity. This benefit will be realized by the delivered shape optimization tool regardless of the applicable manufacturing process whether traditional or AM, thereby broadening the impact of this project on current and future reactor concepts and technologies

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cu(II) Stability and UV-Induced Electron Transfer in a Metal–Organic Hybrid: An EPR, DFT, and Crystallographic Characterization of Copper-Doped Zinc Creatininium Sulfate

Single-crystal X-ray diffraction and electron paramagnetic resonance (EPR) spectroscopic experiments, complemented by quantum chemical DFT calculations, were carried out on the copper-doped metal–organic hybrid and Tutton salt analogue zinc creatininium sulfate to determine its crystal structure, to characterize the electronic structure of the doped Cu(II) binding site, and to propose a pathway for an excited-state, proton-coupled electron transfer (PCET) process in UV-exposed crystals. The crystal structure is isomorphous to that of cadmium creatininium sulfate, which has the transition ion, not in direct coordination with the creatinine, but forming a hexahydrate complex, which is bridged to a creatininium through an intervening sulfate ion. The EPR g (2.446, 2.112, 2.082) and copper hyperfine (A Cu : -327, -59.6, 10.8 MHz) tensor parameters are consistent with doped copper replacing host zinc in the metal–hexahydrate complex. These parameters are similar to those observed for copper hexahydrate in doped Tutton salt systems at low temperature, where the unpaired electron occupies mainly the copper 3d x 2 –y 2 orbital. At room temperature in the Tutton systems, vibration couplings stemming from a dynamic Jahn–Teller effect cause tensor averaging which results in a reduction in their maximum g-tensor and hyperfine tensor values. However, like for the doped isomorphous Cd creatinine crystal, the Cu(II) EPR exhibits little, or no room temperature averaging compared to its low temperature pattern. Samples exposed to 254 nm UV light generate a carbon-centered free radical species, characterized by an isotropic g-tensor (g = 2.0029) and an alpha-proton hyperfine coupling (-24 -14 +4 G). These parameters identify it as a creatinine radical cation formed by the oxidative release of one of its C2 methylene hydrogens. DFT calculations confirm the unpaired electronic structures of both the Cu(II) site and free radical. The growth in radical concentration with an increase in the UV exposure time coincides with a decrease in the copper EPR signal, indicating a coupled light-induced oxidation reduction process. A comparison of the crystal structure with the EPR parameters and DFT results provides evidence for a UV-induced PCET.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗
DOE OSTI2025

Prediction of defect properties in concentrated solid solutions using a Langmuir-like model

The alleged existence of sluggish diffusion in high-entropy alloys has drawn controversy. In high-entropy alloys and, in general, in all solids, transport properties are controlled by point defect concentration, which must be known before performing atomistic simulations to compute transport coefficients. In this work, we present a general Langmuir-like model for defect concentration in an arbitrarily complex solid solution and apply this model to generate expressions for concentrations of vacancies and small interstitial atoms. We then calculate the vacancy concentration as a function of temperature in the equiatomic CoNiCrFeMn and FeAl alloys with modified embedded-atom-method potentials for various chemical orderings, showing there is no clear correlation between vacancy thermodynamics and chemical ordering in the CoNiCrFeMn alloy, but clear systematic patterns for FeAl. We believe this is due to the high stability of disordered, random, and ordered intermetallic phases, respectively, in the CoNiCrFeMn and FeAl systems. Finally, this work provides future avenues to the prediction of thermal interstitials and vacancies in solid solutions, which is necessary for models of nonequilibrium behavior of solid solutions.

composition↗
DOE OSTI2023

Session Introduction: Graph Representations and Algorithms in Biomedicine

Connectivity is a fundamental property of biological systems: on the cellular level, proteins interact with each other to form protein-protein interaction networks (PPIs); on the organism level, neurons are arranged in a network; and on a community-level, species can have complex relationships with one another that drive the development and balance of an ecosystem. Graphs, representations of systems consisting of entities as vertices and their connections as edges, are a useful structure to characterize many such systems. Such models can be used to understand biological systems that naturally have a network structure, including PPIs, biological neurons, and ecosystems. In today’s information age, graph representations and algorithms (often in combination with machine learning techniques) are used to organize massive amounts of related data, much of which may be heterogeneous or unstructured, and identify patterns that represent novel biological insights. PSB’s 2023 session “Graph Representations and algorithms in Biomedicine,” encompasses modern developments in graph theory and its applications to various fields of biomedicine. This session includes a wide range of research - knowledge graphs built from text-mined health data, heterogeneous networks using multi-omic databases, and graphs refined to represent uncertainty or improve memory usage.

Chrisman, Brianna S.↗
DOE OSTI2020

Aging phenomena in the two-dimensional complex Ginzburg-Landau equation

The complex Ginzburg-Landau equation with additive noise is a stochastic partial differential equation that describes a remarkably wide range of physical systems which include coupled non-linear oscillators subject to external noise near a Hopf bifurcation instability and spontaneous structure formation in non-equilibrium systems, e.g., in cyclically competing populations or oscillatory chemical reactions. Here, we employ a finite-difference method to numerically solve the noisy complex Ginzburg-Landau equation on a two-dimensional domain with the goal to investigate its non-equilibrium dynamics when the system is quenched into the “defocusing spiral quadrant”. We observe slow coarsening dynamics as oppositely charged topological defects annihilate each other, and characterize the ensuing aging scaling behavior. We conclude that the physical aging features in this system are governed by non-universal aging scaling exponents. We also investigate systems with control parameters residing in the “focusing quadrant”, and identify slow aging kinetics in that regime as well. Finally, we provide heuristic criteria for the existence of slow coarsening dynamics and physical aging behavior in the complex Ginzburg-Landau equation.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗
DOE OSTI2022

Representing Socio‐Economic Uncertainty in Human System Models

Abstract Socio‐economic development pathways and their implications for the environment are highly uncertain, and energy transitions will involve complex interactions among sectors. Here, traditional Monte Carlo analysis is paired with scenario discovery techniques to provide a richer portrait of these complexities. Modeled uncertain input variables include costs of advanced energy technologies, energy efficiency trends, fossil fuel resource availability, elasticities of substitution for labor, capital, and energy across economic sectors, population growth, and labor and capital productivity. The sampled values are simulated through a multi‐sector, multi‐region, recursively dynamic model of the world economy to explore a range of possible future outcomes. We find that many patterns of energy and technology development are possible for various long‐term environmental pathways and that sectoral output for most sectors is little affected through 2050 by the long‐term temperature target, but with tight constraints on emissions, emission intensities must fall much more rapidly. Scenario discovery techniques are applied to the large uncertainty ensembles to explore if there are prevailing storylines behind outcomes of interest. An illustrative investigation focused on different levels of economic growth shows many combinations of pathways and no single storyline emerging for a given economic outcome. This method can be extended to other outcomes of interest, exploring the nature of scenarios with both tail and median outcomes. Sampling from a Monte Carlo generated ensemble provides a rich set of scenarios to investigate, and potentially aids in avoiding heuristic biases in less structured scenario approaches.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗