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Wide Bandgap Generation (WBGen): Developing the Future Wide Bandgap Power Electronics Engineering Workforce
This Final Technical Report (FTR) summarizes the work conducted at the Center for Power Electronics Systems (CPES) under the Wide-Bandgap Generation (WBGen) fellowship and traineeship program established by the Advanced Manufacturing and Technologies Office (AMMTO) of the U.S. Department of Energy Office of Energy Efficiency and Renewable Energy (EERE) at Virginia Tech, which had as main objective to train the next generation of U.S. citizen power engineers with wide-bandgap (WBG) power semiconductor expertise, with the intent to aid in fulfilling the future workforce needs in this field. The latter was deemed of strategic importance given the fast-paced growth observed—and predicted—in the demand of this technical expertise, whose practitioners have become the enablers and executioners of the electrification transformation process that not just the U.S., but the whole world, is currently undergoing as it seeks for more effective and efficient ways to use energy. As such, the WBGen program set forth to achieve its educational goals, which in addition sought to broaden the range of WBG-based power electronics by conducting research and development on high-efficiency grid apparatus and high-efficiency electrical power systems, and to also enhance the power engineering curriculum by formalizing WBG-oriented design procedures replacing existent yet now obsolete design procedures developed for Silicon (Si) based power electronics. This effort led CPES to spearhead the development of a new major within The Bradley Electrical and Computer Engineering (ECE) Department at Virginia Tech, namely Electronic Power and Energy Systems (EPES), which coalesced power electronics and power systems courses to provide undergraduate students with a strong formation in the power engineering field, while creating a pipeline of graduate students that could pursue the WBG-based curriculum and conduct research at CPES. In all, in what is considered a true success, eight of the twenty WBGen fellows that graduated program were recruited from the ECE department undergraduate cohort. The traineeship emphasized as well, from its beginning, the partnership with industry and national laboratories, which took advantage of the successful industry consortium at CPES that has historically been formed by 80–90 power and energy companies working in close collaboration with the center. This gave WBGen fellows the accessibility and possibility to conduct internships at partner facilities during the summer months, focused solely on the evaluation, testing, and adoption of WBG devices, which were many times tightly related to their respective research work and plans. In addition, WBGen fellows conducted their main research work within the confines of research programs at CPES conducted with these industry partners, providing them with a unique opportunity to develop not just their technical expertise—while advancing their knowledge, but to also learn and practice a slew of skills needed for their professional growth. As such, the fellows tackled a variety of WBG-related research topics, from device reliability and capability aspects as well as packaging and integration, encompassing the use of advanced materials and new structures, current sharing challenges, and insulation systems, to advanced gate-drivers with integrated sensors and protection mechanisms and active current- and voltage-based control, to optimized layouts seeking to maximize the switching and power processing performance of these devices, to power processing solutions adopting Gallium-Nitride (GaN) and Silicon-Carbide (SiC) power semiconductors for a variety of applications; including radiation-hardened converters for space dc distribution systems, direct three-phase ac-to-ac power converters for aerospace systems, dc-ac inverters for automotive traction drives, high-frequency isolated dc-dc battery chargers also for heavy transportation systems, and medium-voltage dc-dc and dc-ac converters for distribution systems and future power grids. The WBGen program ultimately graduated a total of 20 power engineers, all experts on WBG-based power electronics, awarding 18 M.S. and 2 PhD degrees in the process. These fellows, all U.S. citizens, allowed CPES to increase the number of citizens students to 33 % at the peak of the program, as the traineeship made possible the recruitment of talent with more attractive graduate research assistantship (GRA) contracts. Unfortunately, the present U.S. citizen enrollment at CPES has declined back to historic levels—approximately 10 %, as the regular GRA rates are not competitive enough when compared with entry-level industry jobs. In all, WBGen fellows published a total of 7 peer-reviewed journal articles, 44 papers at international technical conferences, made 42 presentations at international technical conferences, and filed 4 invention disclosures and patent applications, which have since then been granted by the U.S. Patent and Trademark Office (USPTO). Their contribution to CPES, Virginia Tech, the United States, and the world, has been significant, and continues to yield results thanks to the exemplary career that the fellows have initiated at many of the partners of the program, which include Wolfspeed, Raytheon Technologies, Infineon, Lockheed Martin, Dominion Energy, Northrop Grumman, Rivian, Aerospace Corporation, Sandia National Laboratory, National Renewable Energy Laboratory, John Hopkins University, and Virginia Tech.
Development of High-Performance Ni-base Alloys for Gas Turbine Wheels Using a Coprecipitation Approach (Final Technical Report)
In this project, a synergistic approach involving experiments informed by modelling was used to develop γ'/γ'' coprecipitation-strengthened Ni-base superalloys for land-based gas turbine wheels. In thick sections of such turbine wheels, the slow cooling rate normally observed, as well as variations in cooling rate could potentially result in drastically inhomogeneous and coarsened microstructure. Thus, ten alloy compositions were selected based on coprecipitation and sluggish γ’ growth and coarsening during three iterations of alloy development, assisted by extensive CALPHAD modeling. Phase equilibrium calculations, informed by the characterization of early alloys, were successful in predicting suitable aging treatments to obtain bimodal coprecipitate distribution in several alloys. These aging treatments were applied to the subsequent round of alloys and the resulting microstructures were characterized in detail. Two different cooling rates were used during each of these heat treatments to simulate the range of cooling rates observed in a thick section forging. The microstructures were used to calibrate a multi-phase field model (MPF), which was used to study the formation mechanisms of various coprecipitate morphologies observed in the experiments. Following this, the most promising alloys in each round were selected and studied using high temperature tensile and creep tests. Considering that a slower cooling rate would lead to a strength debit, while a faster cooling rate might lead to a decline in creep rupture life of a full-scale wheel, tensile tests were carried out for slower cooled samples, while creep tests were carried out for faster cooled samples. The deformation microstructures were then characterized using advanced characterization techniques such as Diffraction Contrast-Scanning Transmission Electron Microscopy (DC-STEM) and Electron Channeling Contrast Imaging (ECCI). Further, a mean-field creep model was developed and calibrated using these experimental findings to predict long-term creep behavior of these coprecipitation-strengthened alloys.
Survival and behavior of Mojave desert tortoises head-started with and without outdoor rearing
Mojave desert tortoise (Gopherus agassizii) populations in some regions have declined by >50% since 2004, prompting the need for more research on ways to recover populations. One possible recovery tool is head-starting (i.e., the act of protecting and raising juvenile tortoises to sizes that increase survival upon release); however, head-starting can have high start-up and maintenance costs that can limit its feasibility. Strategies that reduce cost and rearing duration may foster broader and more effective use. We released and radio-tracked 60 juvenile tortoises in the Mojave National Preserve in California, USA, that had been reared under 2 treatments: those reared 1 year indoors after hatching, then 1 year outdoors (combo) and those reared just 1 year indoors (indoor-only). We tested whether indoor-only rearing alone could be a more efficient means of producing robust head-started tortoises. We examined the behavior, movement, and survival of tortoises after release into the wild from 2020 to 2021 to determine whether these outcomes differed between husbandry treatments. Combo tortoises tended to perform settling behaviors (mean ± 1 SE days to building first burrow = 6.7 ± 0.8, entering dormancy = 23.3 ± 2.1, and emerging from dormancy = 189.6 ± 4.4) earlier than indoor-only tortoises (7.4 ± 0.9, 31.5 ± 2.6, and 193.9 ± 5.9, respectively), but this difference was not significant, suggesting the rearing method did not greatly alter settling behavior. Indoor-only tortoises dispersed at least twice as far from their release site (156.2 ± 26.3 m compared with 77.3 ± 20.6 m for combo tortoises), had larger mean use areas (3.7 ± 0.1 ha compared with 2.8 ± 0.3 ha for combo tortoises for 95% Brownian bridge movement model estimates), and greater variability in their movements than combo tortoises (daily average step length post-emergence: 4.3 ± 0.2 m compared with 2.8 ± 0.1 m for combo tortoises). Despite differences in their movements, indoor-only and combo tortoises had similar survival rates over the study, 51% versus 42%, respectively, during a period of extreme drought in 2021. The similarity in survival between groups gives head-starting practitioners freedom in their rearing methods. The indoor-only group had lower site fidelity, which should be considered when this is an undesirable trait for released tortoises.
Mechanically Robust Bismuth-Embedded Carbon Microspheres for Ultrafast Charging and Ultrastable Sodium-Ion Batteries
Advancements in the development of fast-charging and long-lasting microstructured alloying anodes with high volumetric capacities are essential for enhancing the operational efficiency of sodium-ion batteries (SIBs). These anodes, however, face challenges such as declined cyclability and rate capability, primarily due to mechanical degradation reduced by significant volumetric changes (over 252%) and slow kinetics of sodium-ion storage. Herein, we introduce a novel anode design featuring densely packed bismuth (Bi) embedded within highly conductive carbon microspheres to overcome the aforementioned challenges. Remarkably, the high loading Bi anode within carbon microspheres with a high tap density of 2.59 g cm -3 possesses significant mechanical strength exceeding 590 MPa and limits volume swelling of only 10.9% post-sodiation. This anode demonstrates a high volumetric capacity (908.3 mAh cm -3 ), ultrafast chargeability (200 A g -1 , full charge/discharge in just 5.5 s), and outstanding cyclability over 12,000 cycles and maintains exceptional cycling stability even at -30 °C. The full cell paired with a Na 3 V 2 (PO 4 ) 3 cathode retains over 80% capacity after 600 cycles at 36 C, demonstrating a remarkable rate capability of 126 C (full charge/discharge in 28.6 s). Our comprehensive experimental evaluations and chemo-mechanical simulations shed light on the mechanisms underpinning the anode's superior performance. In conclusion, this development marks a significant advancement in the design of durable and fast-charging anodes for high-performance SIBs.
Determining spatially varying profit‐maximizing management practices for miscanthus and switchgrass production in the rainfed United States
Abstract Determining optimal management practices for the profitable production of perennial energy crops is critical for scaling up production beyond experimental levels. Although many experimental field studies have examined the effects of management practices on the performance of miscanthus and switchgrass, there are no recommendations for economically optimal nitrogen (N) application rates and how they should vary spatially and with the age of the energy crop as well as on optimal rotation age of the energy crop to maximize profits. We develop a modeling framework to determine economically optimal crop management decisions and simulate the variability under various scenarios for miscanthus and switchgrass production across 2287 counties in the rainfed United States. We find that profit‐maximizing N recommendations for these crops vary across maturity stages and regions and can increase the landowner's profits compared with a uniform N rate across ages and regions. We also find that the optimal rotation for these crops is shorter than the productive physical lifespan (15–20 and 10 years for miscanthus and switchgrass, respectively). Specifically, the N rate that maximizes the economic returns is negligible for miscanthus and 111 kg ha −1 for switchgrass production at age 2. The mean profit‐maximizing N rate increases with age for miscanthus, peaking at 151 kg ha −1 at age 11 before declining to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation age of 13 years while that for switchgrass is 150 kg ha −1 for middle‐aged stands and declines to 114 kg ha −1 at the optimal rotation of 8–9 years. We find that miscanthus is the most profitable energy crop in the northern region of the rainfed United States while switchgrass is most profitable in the south of the rainfed United States. Our findings are useful for improving assessments of the profitability of energy crops and guiding future management decisions by landowners.
Graph-Based Prediction of Spatio-Temporal Vaccine Hesitancy From Insurance Claims Data
Growing vaccine hesitancy is contributing to the decline in immunization rates for highly contagious, vaccine-preventable childhood diseases. Therefore, there has been a significant interest in understanding how hesitancy is spreading at higher spatio-temporal resolutions, enabling more targeted interventions. Motivated by this, we study the problem of prediction of vaccine hesitancy at the ZIP Code level, referred to as the VaxHesitancy problem. A significant challenge for this problem is the lack of high-resolution data that indicates hesitancy. Here, we develop a hybrid VaxHesSTL framework that combines a Graph Neural Network (GNN) and a Recurrent Neural Network (RNN) to address the VaxHesitancy problem. The GNN uses a ZIP Code-level network to capture spatial signals from neighboring areas, while the RNN models the temporal dynamics present in the data. We train and evaluate VaxHesSTL using a large dataset, namely the All-Payer Claims Databases (APCD), for Virginia, consisting of insurance claims from over five million individuals for six years. We find that an aggregated contact network or graph, developed from a detailed activity-based population network, plays an important role in the performance of VaxHesSTL, compared to graph models based solely on spatial proximity. Experiments demonstrate that VaxHesSTL outperforms a range of state-of-the-art baselines, which rely solely on historical time series data without accounting for spatial relationships. Since hesitancy data at higher spatial resolution is often unavailable or hard to get, we incorporate an active learning approach with our VaxHesSTL framework to optimize the training set without compromising the prediction performance. We find that hesitancy data for only 18% of ZIP Codes selected by active learning allows us to forecast hesitancy for all the ZIP Codes in the Virginia.
Least-Cost Pathways for India's Electric Power Sector
The Government of India has a target of deploying 175 GW from renewable energy by 2022 and 40% of electricity capacity from renewable energy by 2030 and has indicated that ambitions for 2030 could be higher. Rapid changes in technology costs and performance could drive further deployment of wind and solar capacity beyond these policy targets. Increased deployment of variable renewable energy (VRE) raises new questions for power system planning regarding the optimal siting of generation capacity, trade-offs between generation and transmission infrastructure, and system flexibility needs. This study aims to evaluate least-cost pathways for India's electric power system over the period 2017-2047. Uniquely, this work considers an expanded planning horizon and range of scenarios not previously analyzed in national planning studies in India. The data collection and model design processes undertaken for this study provides a framework for recurring planning studies. This study finds anticipated changes in electricity demand and component costs can drive a significant shift in India's future electricity supply and how this system will be operated. In the Base scenario, the share of generation from VRE reaches 54% by 2047. Reducing the capital cost of wind has a larger impact on VRE penetration than reducing the capital cost of solar PV or battery storage. In the lowest wind cost scenario (40% capital cost decline by 2047 relative to the Base scenario), the penetration of VRE in the generation mix reaches 722%, exceeding the penetration levels achieved when the cost of battery storage or solar PV are reduced by an even greater 50%. In a future system with high penetrations of RE, capacity additions are driven by the coincidence of demand and RE generation rather than peak demand alone. This study finds the system could have surplus capacity during the peak demand months of July–September because this period corresponds to periods with high wind speeds and more wind generation available to meet peak demand. By contrast, new capacity is needed to meet demand during moderate demand months of October–November when output from wind plants falls more than 75% nationally compared to the previous two months. Finally, the success for gas for electricity production may depend on cost competitiveness rather than fuel availability. Increasing the amount of gas available for electricity production had no significant impact on the capacity or generation mix by 2047, as determined from a scenario that significantly increases fuel availability throughout the planning horizon. In fact, over 80% of new gas fuel available for the power sector remains unused. This suggests the high cost of gas plant operations relative to other technologies may constrain the expansion of gas generation in India more than fuel availability.
Assessment of Demographic, Genetic, and Imaging Variables Associated With Brain Resilience and Cognitive Resilience to Pathological Tau in Patients With Alzheimer Disease
Importance: Better understanding is needed of the degree to which individuals tolerate Alzheimer disease (AD)-like pathological tau with respect to brain structure (brain resilience) and cognition (cognitive resilience). Objective: To examine the demographic (age, sex, and educational level), genetic (APOE-ε4 status), and neuroimaging (white matter hyperintensities and cortical thickness) factors associated with interindividual differences in brain and cognitive resilience to tau positron emission tomography (PET) load and to changes in global cognition over time. Design, setting, an participants: In this cross-sectional, longitudinal study, tau PET was performed from June 1, 2014, to November 30, 2017, and global cognition monitored for a mean [SD] interval of 2.0 [1.8] years at 3 dementia centers in South Korea, Sweden, and the United States. The study included amyloid-β-positive participants with mild cognitive impairment or AD dementia. Data analysis was performed from October 26, 2018, to December 11, 2019. Exposures: Standard dementia screening, cognitive testing, brain magnetic resonance imaging, amyloid-β PET and cerebrospinal fluid analysis, and flortaucipir (tau) labeled with fluor-18 (18F) PET. Main outcomes and measures: Separate linear regression models were performed between whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake and cortical thickness, and standardized residuals were used to obtain a measure of brain resilience. The same procedure was performed for whole cortex [18F]flortaucipir uptake vs Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) as a measure of cognitive resilience. Bivariate and multivariable linear regression models were conducted with age, sex, educational level, APOE-ε4 status, white matter hyperintensity volumes, and cortical thickness as independent variables and brain and cognitive resilience measures as dependent variables. Linear mixed models were performed to examine whether changes in MMSE scores over time differed as a function of a combined brain and cognitive resilience variable. Results: A total of 260 participants (145 [55.8%] female; mean [SD] age, 69.2 [9.5] years; mean [SD] MMSE score, 21.9 [5.5]) were included in the study. In multivariable models, women (standardized β = -0.15, P = .02) and young patients (standardized β = -0.20, P = .006) had greater brain resilience to pathological tau. Higher educational level (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) and global cortical thickness (standardized β = 0.23, P < .001) were associated with greater cognitive resilience to pathological tau. Linear mixed models indicated a significant interaction of brain resilience × cognitive resilience × time on MMSE (β [SE] = -0.235 [0.111], P = .03), with steepest slopes for individuals with both low brain and cognitive resilience. Conclusions and relevance: Results of this study suggest that women and young patients with AD have relative preservation of brain structure when exposed to neocortical pathological tau. Interindividual differences in resilience to pathological tau may be important to disease progression because participants with both low brain and cognitive resilience had the most rapid cognitive decline over time.
Evaluating Production Implications of Pressure Maintenance in Unconventional Oil and Gas Wells using a Machine Learning Modeling Approach: Case Study in the Permian Basin
This study implements the proprietary machine learning-based model (model) developed under the 2022 study titled “Evaluating the Impact of Proprietary Oil & Gas Data on Machine Learning Model Performance Using a Quasi-Experimental Analytical Approach” for forecasting unconventional oil and gas production using well data from the Permian Basin. The model, developed using an exclusive dataset that includes time series production data from an operator in the Permian Basin, is designed to jointly predict daily oil, gas, and water production for horizontal wells as a function of bottomhole pressure drawdown, spatial placement across the study domain, and well-completion attributes. In this study, the model was explicitly applied to explore its utility to evaluate the impact of varying drawdown strategies on the production forecast of a well in the Permian Basin dataset. Managing pressure drawdown has been identified as a way to improve estimated ultimate recovery (EUR) from unconventional shale wells due to the stress-dependent nature of fractures in shale reservoirs. Research has shown that applying a lower pressure drawdown helps to maintain the reservoir conductivity, resulting in higher productivity over the life of a well. Historic bottomhole pressure data from the well over time was used as a benchmark from which to set more and less aggressive pressure decline rates as bounding modeling cases. All pressure decline rates/strategies were forecasted over 5 years, and the model was used to generate oil, water, and gas prediction over the same timeframe. This report presents the results from the production forecast and discusses potential operational and economic implications, with contrasting perspectives between well productivity and profitability given typical oil and gas economics and the volatility in the oil and gas market.
Projecting climate change in South America using variable‐resolution Community Earth System Model: An application to Chile
Abstract We introduce variable‐resolution enabled Community Earth System Model (VR‐CESM) results simulating historical and future climate conditions at 28 km over South America and 14 km over the Andes. Three 30‐year simulations are performed: a historic (1985–2014), a near future (2030–2059), and an end‐century (2070–2099) simulation under the RCP8.5 scenario. Historic results compare favourably to several temperature and precipitation reanalysis products, though local biases are present, particularly during austral summer. Future simulations highlight broad warming patterns (+3–6°C by end‐century) and heterogeneous precipitation responses across South America that qualitatively agree with prior modelling efforts. Our results reveal that the interaction between temperature and precipitation changes produce shifts in several Köppen–Geiger climates. Notable changes include the near‐elimination of the Andean Tundra or Alpine climates, a 15% decrease in Tropical Rainforests and a Tropical Savannah expansion of 20%. To provide a regionally focused analysis of projected climate change and to illustrate the benefits of variable resolution modelling, we analyse changes in the magnitude and trend in seasonal and daily temperature and precipitation in Chile. We also examined several metrics [e.g., snow water equivalent (SWE), temperatures on wet days, and days below 0°C] to evaluate potential impacts of climate change on the Chilean cryosphere between the end‐of‐century and historic periods, finding wide‐ranging indications of cryospheric decline. These changes are interpreted through reductions in the timing (1–2.5 months earlier peak SWE) and magnitude (200–1,000 mm SWE decreases) of water stored as snow in the Andes, a 10–30% decrease in number of cool season wet days with temperatures below 1°C, and 50–200 fewer days (annually) with minimum temperatures below 0°C. Our aim in producing a high‐resolution dataset of climate projections from VR‐CESM is to support analyses of climate change throughout South America but especially in vulnerable montane regions and to provide additional results for comparison with previous, ongoing, and upcoming modelling efforts.
Lithium-Ion Batteries with Lithium Manganese Iron Phosphate Cathodes and Lithium Titanate Anodes: Linking Electrode Dynamics to Cell Performance
This study examines the electrochemical performance, impedance behavior, and aging mechanisms of lithium-ion cells pairing lithium manganese iron phosphate (LiMn 0.6 Fe 0.4 PO 4 , LMFP64) cathodes with lithium titanate (Li 4 Ti 5 O 12 , LTO) anodes. LMFP64 half-cells display distinct Fe and Mn redox plateaus at ∼3.5 and ∼4.1 V, respectively, and deliver excellent rate capability. Three-electrode measurements show that LMFP64 dominates cell impedance, which changes sharply across the Fe–Mn redox transition and decreases with increasing temperature (30 °C–50 °C). Voltage hysteresis arises mainly from the cathode, with higher C-rates shortening redox plateaus and broadening the transition region. Elevated temperature lowers impedance, especially near the Mn-redox and transition regions, but accelerates capacity fade. Post-cycling analyses of electrodes confirm structural stability of LMFP64 and indicate loss of lithium inventory (LLI) as the source of capacity fade. This LLI causes potential slippage between the LMFP64 and LTO electrodes, which decreases the Fe-redox plateau width. Long-term cycling highlights the critical role of electrode overhang: cathode overhang mitigates capacity fade by buffering lithium loss, whereas anode overhang cells experience faster capacity decline due to uncompensated lithium depletion. These results clarify LMFP64/LTO battery impedance evolution, thermal effects, and degradation pathways and provide insights for their applications in electric vehicles.
Renewable Energy for Industrial Environmental Management
Costs for renewable energy technologies have declined rapidly in the past decade and their use for residential, commercial, and utility scale electricity has grown exponentially as they become cost competitive. Simultaneously, industrial and manufacturing processes have been increasingly seeking ways to reduce emissions and operational costs in highly competitive sectors. With these combined drivers of lower cost and reduced environmental impact, renewable energy may become a viable energy provider for industrial processes such as oil and gas, mining, chemical refining, food production, and manufacturing. Renewable energy technologies may also partner with other reduced emission energy sources, such as small modular nuclear reactors and carbon capture and utilization, to create cleaner and circular industrial systems for reduced resource use. The Joint Institute for Strategic Energy Analysis (JISEA), which is a partnership of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory (NREL) and five universities and others, has been studying to potential for application of clean energy technologies to the heterogenous energy demands in industry. Dr. Jill Engel-Cox will present an overview of NREL and JISEA, the status and potential future of renewable energy technologies, and collaborations with the oil and gas industry and other industrial sectors to improve their environmental performance and reduce operational costs.
Explaining drivers of housing prices with nonlinear hedonic regressions
Housing markets play a critical role in shaping the spatial and demographic evolution of urban areas. Simulating housing price dynamics can enhance projections of future urban development outcomes. However, traditional hedonic regressions for housing prices, which neglect nonlinear interactions among explanatory variables, often exhibit limited predictive performance. While machine learning (ML) methods can provide a more flexible representation of the relationships between predictors, they are often regarded as “black boxes” due to their complexity and lack of transparency. Interpretable ML techniques provide a promising route by combining the flexibility of ML methods with approaches to analyze the relationships between inputs and outputs. In this study, we employ interpretable ML to analyze the patterns driving the housing market in Baltimore, Maryland, USA. We train an Artificial Neural Network (ANN) to predict Baltimore housing prices based on structural characteristics (e.g., home size, number of stories) and locational attributes (e.g., distance to the city center). We then conduct sensitivity and Partial Dependence Plot (PDP) analyses to interpret the fitted ANN model. We find that the ML model achieves higher predictive accuracy and explains 16 % more of housing price variance than a traditional linear regression model. The interpretable ML model also reveals more nuanced and realistic nonlinear relationships between housing sales price and predictors as well as interactive effects underlying Baltimore home price dynamics. For instance, while the linear model indicates a steady housing price increase over time, our interpretable ML model detects a post-2008 decline, with smaller properties experiencing the sharpest drop.
Designing a transactive electric vehicle agent with customer’s participation preference
The proliferation of electric vehicles (EVs) and their inherent flexibility in charging timings make them an asset to improve grid performance. In contrast to direct control by a utility or autonomous price-based charging, the transactive control framework not only provides benefits to both grid and customers but also ensures customer autonomy. In this work, we design a transactive electric vehicle (TEV) agent that incorporates the EV owner’s willingness to trade-off between savings and amenity in form of a slider, where the EV owner’s amenity is characterized as vehicle readiness. Further, a privacy-preserving bidding formulation is proposed that also represents the customer’s transactive preference. A transactive market mechanism is discussed that integrates the TEV Agents into the local retail market and reconciles with the current day-ahead and real-time market structure. It is demonstrated that the proposed slider is able to provide a preferred trade-off between savings and amenity to individual customers. At the same time, the market mechanism is shown to successfully reduce both peak prices and peak demand. A comparative investigation of V1G and V2G technologies with respect to the battery prices is also discussed. It reveals that the V2G does not offer significant additional benefits with current battery prices, but could be promising if battery costs decline in the future.
Assessing the New Home Market Opportunity: Case Study and Cost Modeling for Solar and Storage in 2030
Residential solar and storage markets are growing in the United States. With approximately 1 million new homes constructed every year, this represents a significant opportunity for solar and storage installations. Some homebuilders have begun to build new homes with solar and storage included as a standard offering. It is not clear how solar and storage is incorporated into the new construction process and at what cost. Further, it is unclear what barriers or opportunities exist to scale this model nationwide. To fill this gap in the literature, this research conducts a case study of Mandalay Homes' new solar and storage community in Arizona to gather lessons learned. From this foundation, we further generate a set of pathways to reduce install costs and expand solar and storage market penetration in this sector. To model existing and 2030 solar and storage costs, we use the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's (NREL's) bottom-up cost model. This modeling is further informed by 12 interviews conducted with new home builders, solar contractors, and other subject matter expert organizations. Our case study analysis generated three key considerations for other homebuilders including: 1. Educating local permitting, inspection, and in some cases utility officials on solar and storage products, designs, and code compliant building practices may be required. The need for education may decline as more local governments and utilities review and approve solar and storage projects. 2. Incorporating solar and storage systems into the homebuilding process can add complexity and related coordination challenges. This does not need to result in home construction delays, but can result in costly contractor "dry runs" to construction sites. 3. Deploying solar and storage at the time of new construction has significant economies of scale, which can improve the value proposition of the systems. The case study, extant literature, and interviews were used to model both existing and future solar and storage installation costs at time of new construction. Here, we find three key cost reduction opportunities relating to solar and battery storage hardware, customer acquisition, and overhead. If future contractors can maximize the cost reduction opportunities outlined here, residential new construction costs could decline by 8 - 25% by 2030, depending on the modeled scenario. Though we expect costs to decline through 2030, it is unclear which of these scenarios may ultimately appear. Interviewees further identified a variety of barriers across each cost category that could temper the savings shown here. At the same time, interviewees described several pathways to scale the new construction solar and storage market, beyond installation cost savings. Interviewees confirmed that changes in finance, rate design, resilience policies, deployment mandates, and DER aggregation could all support more market adoption than seen today. These findings suggest that there are significant opportunities to expand new construction markets and this research can serve as a baseline to assess progress in this segment through 2030.
Updated sustainability status of cadmium telluride thin‐film photovoltaic systems and projections
This paper provides a comprehensive assessment of the up-to-date life-cycle sustainability status of cadmium-telluride based photovoltaic (PV) systems. Current production modules (Series 6 and Series 7) are analyzed in terms of their energy performance and environmental footprint and compared with the older series 4 module production and current single-crystalline Silicon (sc-Si) module production. For fixed-tilt systems with Series 6 modules operating under average US irradiation of 1800 kWh/m 2 /year, the global warming potential (GWP) is reduced from 16 g CO 2eq /kWh in Series 4 systems to 10 CO 2 eq /kWh in Series 6 systems. For operation in US-SW irradiation of 2300 kWh/m 2 /year, the GWP is reduced from 11 to 8 CO 2eq /kWh and for 1-axis tracking systems operating in Phoenix, Arizona, with point-of array irradiation of 3051 kWh/m 2 /year the GWP is reduced to 6.5 CO 2eq /kWh. Similar reductions have happened in all environmental indicators. Energy payback times (EPBT) of currently installed systems range from 0.6 years for fixed–tilt ground–mounted installations at average US irradiation at latitude tilt installations to 0.3 years for one-axis trackers at high US-SW irradiation, considering average fossil-fuel dominated electricity grids with fuel to electricity conversion efficiency of 0.3. The resulting energy return on energy investment (EROI) also depends on the conversion efficiency of the electricity grid and on the operation life expectance. For a 30-year operational life and grid conversion efficiency of 0.3, EROI ranges from 50 (at US average irradiation) to 70 for US-SW irradiation. The EROI declines with increased grid conversion efficiency; for CdTe PV operating in south California with grid conversion efficiency of 49%, the EROI is about 50 and is projected to fall to 30 when the state's 2030 target of 80% renewable energy penetration materializes. Material alternatives that show a potential of further reductions in degradation rates and materials for enhanced encapsulation that would enable longer operation lives have also been investigated. A degradation rate of 0.3%/year, which has been verified by accelerated testing, is assumed in 30-year scenarios; this is projected to be reduced to 0.2%/year in the near-term and potentially to 0.1%/year in the longer term. With such low degradation rates and enhanced edge-sealing, modules can last 40- to 50-years. Consequently, all impact indicators will be proportionally reduced while EROI will increase. This detailed LCA was conducted according to ISO standards and IEA PVPS Task 12 guidelines. Furthermore, the study revealed that the choices of system models, methods and temporal system boundaries can significantly impact the results and points out to the need to include assumptions regarding these choices in the “transparency in reporting” requirements listed in the IEA PVPS Task 12 Guidelines.