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DOE OSTI2021

Comparison of Probabilistic Forecasts for Predictive Voltage Control

This paper explores predictive cooperative voltage control in distribution systems with highly variable sources such as photovoltaics (PV). The goal is to maintain the voltage profile within the limits despite the fluctuations due to sudden changes in solar power generation. The predictive voltage control method relies on probabilistic solar power and load forecasts to select the optimum Voltage Regulator (VR) taps appropriately. VR taps are selected to minimize the risk of voltage violation. A modified version of the IEEE 123 system is used as the case study. A 100% penetration of solar power is assumed for the distribution system with profiles for solar generation and loads added to the system. Three different probabilistic forecast models (Quantile Regression (QR), Gaussian distribution and volatility forecasting using Generalized Autoregressive Conditional Heteroskedasticity (GARCH)) are explored in this study. The results for the VR taps and Voltage Deviation Index (VDI) are compared to find the most effective forecast model.

Panamtash, Hossein↗

DOE OSTI2024

Phasor-Domain Modeling of Inverter Based Resources Considering Unbalanced Grid Faults

A significant increase in inverter-based distributed energy resources (DERs) is expected in distribution systems of the near future. The latest phasor modeling approach of DERs with emerging control technologies can capture relevant dynamics in large-scale three-phase distribution systems with unbalanced construction. However, there is a lack of appropriate phasor models to deal with unbalanced fault scenarios. As such, this paper describes per-phase phasor modeling approach appropriate for unbalanced grid disturbance studies in distribution systems with high penetration of DERs. The overall modeling performance of representative DERs is simulated in phasor domain GridLAB-D environment and validated against controller hardware-in-the loop (CHIL) testing or electromagnetic transient (EMT) based switching model simulation in PSCAD with test cases including different unbalanced grid faults. The high accuracy retained from the simulation verifies the effectiveness of the proposed phasor modeling approach considering interactions between positive and negative sequence signals.

Chen, Zhe↗

DOE OSTI2023

Demographic Information Incorporated Household Energy Consumption Analysis

The high energy consumption from residential buildings provides them large potential to participate in demand response programs. To design appropriate demand response programs for residential buildings, it is important for electric utilities to know the energy consumption characteristics for different types of households so that utilities can send requests to the groups with a higher possibility to successfully respond. In this paper, we develop a load model to generate synthetic load profiles for different types of households incorporating demographical information including Current Population Survey data set and American Time Use Survey data set. The details of each data set and the details of the load models are presented. The synthetic household load profiles are generated by the load model and clustered into different groups based on state, age, number of occupants, income level, and city of the household. The average energy consumption characteristics for different groups of households are analyzed and compared, which will help electric utilities issue demand response signals to appropriate households.

building loads↗

DOE OSTI2023

Performance Specifications for Grid-Forming Technologies

Standards and specifications for inverter-based resources (IBRs) focus primarily on grid-following (GFL) technologies at present. Therefore, these may generally not be appropriate for application in power systems to ensure acceptable operation with grid-forming (GFM) technologies. In some cases, the direct application of prevailing standards and specifications may not be appropriate for - or may even inadvertently limit the potential of - GFM resources. The Universal Interoperability for Grid- Forming Inverters (UNIFI) Consortium is a U.S. Department of Energy funded effort to advance GFM technology. The UNIFI team brings together academic, industrial, and national-lab researchers as well as industry stakeholders (utilities, system operators, vendors) to collaboratively pursue advances in a broad range of GFM technologies. This paper introduces a set of system- and unit-level specifications driven by consensus across the UNIFI project team. These are intended to seamlessly integrate GFM technologies at any scale into power-systems operation and control in a vendor-agnostic manner. A suite of illustrative simulation results that demonstrate the application of and adherence to the proposed specifications are included.

grid-forming inverter↗

DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation and Demonstration of Blockchain Applicability Framework

Blockchain technology has been gaining great interest from a variety of industry sectors, including financial, food processing, and power and energy markets. Realizing the strength of blockchain technology beyond the successful application in the cryptocurrency arena, researchers have been evaluating and using blockchain for applications such as supply chain management, transactive industry (both financial and energy), system integrity, device cybersecurity, identity management, and much more. One of the unique elements of the blockchain technology that made it such a captivating technology to researchers is its plethora of features. Some of the features include smart contracts, cryptocurrency and tokenizing, immutable distributed ledger, cryptographic hashing, and digital signature. In addition, there are multiple types of blockchains, such as permissioned/private and permissionless/public, and various consensus models, such as proof-of-work, proof-of-authority, proof-of-burn, and proof-of-stake. Therefore, it is often non-trivial to determine if an application requires a blockchain. If so, what kind of blockchain and consensus is most appropriate? This paper discusses the blockchain applicability framework (BAF), which was specifically designed with the purpose to answer those questions. BAF is divided into five domains, 18 subdomains, and about 100 controls. It is designed to ingest detailed user requirements to perform a weighted evaluation that is built on mathematical constructs to determine the ideal combination of blockchain that is appropriate for an application. Along with the core logical formulation of BAF, this paper depicts the efficacy of BAF through two use cases

Gourisetti, Sri Nikhil G.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Allocation Mechanisms in Rationed Markets

Economic theory has come to play an important role in power system operations through the design of wholesale markets that are central to their operation. Furthermore, transactive energy places economic theory as a cornerstone in its operational concept as it seeks to integrate the technical needs of the power system with the preferences of its participants. Traditionally the mechanism employed is the continuous double-auction but de-pending on the circumstances the power system find itself in, this mechanism may or may not be the most appropriate, i.e. a one-size fits all market institution cannot be recommended without regard for the features of the underlying trading environment. This paper seeks to explain the economic rationale that guides the choice of a market institution and takes recourse to a theoretical demonstration in the context of a rationed power system scenario where demand exceeds generation (due to any number of events such as outages, microgrid operation, etc) and electrical energy must be rationed to better understand which types of mechanisms are most appropriate.

transactive energy, power system economics, econom↗

DOE OSTI2022

NSTX-U Machine Core Vacuum Seals Upgrade Design

The vacuum in the National Spherical Torus Experiment Upgrade (NSTX-U) is in the range of 2.66x10⁻⁶ Pa (2x 10⁻⁸ torr). To enhance vacuum seals and lower gas permeation in the NSTX-U and therefore ensuring operation safety and quality, the machine core vacuum seal design has been upgraded using double elastomeric seals and pumped interspaces (guard channels). In NSTX-U machine core, there are six major vacuum seals, including upper and lower vacuum vessel main flanges, upper and lower bellows flanges, and two in the ceramic isolation ring assembly that are mounted to the upper vacuum vessel main flange. The elastomeric seals are commercially available and customized fluorocarbon (Viton) O-rings. To ensure appropriate O-ring compression ratios for the vacuum seal, the O-ring grooves are customized with appropriate tolerances considering specific situations for each seal. In this upgrade, the vacuum in each interspace is designed to reach 13.33 Pa (0.1 torr), thus the overall pressure difference crossing each double O-ring seal is expected to be reduced by at least three orders of magnitude, and accordingly the overall rates of leakage and permeation will be lowered by three orders of magnitude. The corresponding pump-down times for each seal, at room temperature, are estimated at about 60 s. Additionally, the vacuum pumped interspaces will be able to function as a real-time leak monitor.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Comparing traditional and Bayesian approaches to ecological meta‐analysis

Abstract Despite the wide application of meta‐analysis in ecology, some of the traditional methods used for meta‐analysis may not perform well given the type of data characteristic of ecological meta‐analyses. We reviewed published meta‐analyses on the ecological impacts of global climate change, evaluating the number of replicates used in the primary studies ( n i ) and the number of studies or records ( k ) that were aggregated to calculate a mean effect size. We used the results of the review in a simulation experiment to assess the performance of conventional frequentist and Bayesian meta‐analysis methods for estimating a mean effect size and its uncertainty interval. Our literature review showed that n i and k were highly variable, distributions were right‐skewed and were generally small (median n i = 5, median k = 44). Our simulations show that the choice of method for calculating uncertainty intervals was critical for obtaining appropriate coverage (close to the nominal value of 0.95). When k was low (<40), 95% coverage was achieved by a confidence interval (CI) based on the t distribution that uses an adjusted standard error (the Hartung–Knapp–Sidik–Jonkman, HKSJ), or by a Bayesian credible interval, whereas bootstrap or z distribution CIs had lower coverage. Despite the importance of the method to calculate the uncertainty interval, 39% of the meta‐analyses reviewed did not report the method used, and of the 61% that did, 94% used a potentially problematic method, which may be a consequence of software defaults. In general, for a simple random‐effects meta‐analysis, the performance of the best frequentist and Bayesian methods was similar for the same combinations of factors ( k and mean replication), though the Bayesian approach had higher than nominal (>95%) coverage for the mean effect when k was very low ( k < 15). Our literature review suggests that many meta‐analyses that used z distribution or bootstrapping CIs may have overestimated the statistical significance of their results when the number of studies was low; more appropriate methods need to be adopted in ecological meta‐analyses.

Pappalardo, Paula↗

DOE OSTI2021

Discrete-Direct Model Calibration and Uncertainty Propagation Method Confirmed on Multi-Parameter Plasticity Model Calibrated to Sparse Random Field Data

A discrete direct (DD) model calibration and uncertainty propagation approach is explained and demonstrated on a 4-parameter Johnson-Cook (J-C) strain-rate dependent material strength model for an aluminum alloy. The methodology's performance is characterized in many trials involving four random realizations of strain-rate dependent material-test data curves per trial, drawn from a large synthetic population. The J-C model is calibrated to particular combinations of the data curves to obtain calibration parameter sets which are then propagated to “Can Crush” structural model predictions to produce samples of predicted response variability. These are processed with appropriate sparse-sample uncertainty quantification (UQ) methods to estimate various statistics of response with an appropriate level of conservatism. This is tested on 16 output quantities (von Mises stresses and equivalent plastic strains) and it is shown that important statistics of the true variabilities of the 16 quantities are bounded with a high success rate that is reasonably predictable and controllable. The DD approach has several advantages over other calibration-UQ approaches like Bayesian inference for capturing and utilizing the information obtained from typically small numbers of replicate experiments in model calibration situations—especially when sparse replicate functional data are involved like force–displacement curves from material tests. The DD methodology is straightforward and efficient for calibration and propagation problems involving aleatory and epistemic uncertainties in calibration experiments, models, and procedures.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Improving Trustworthiness of Data-Driven Power Grid Contingency Analysis With Bayesian Residual Graph Neural Networks

The evolving energy landscape requires novel tools to efficiently perform contingency analysis and reliability assessment of power grids, potentially in real-time. The high computational cost of traditional power flow solvers limits their applicability in practice. Machine learning (ML) surrogates such as deep neural networks (NNs) accelerate power flow solvers computations, enabling high-order contingency analysis and real-time decision-making by learning highly nonlinear functions and integrating grid topology via graph architectures. However, (graph) NNs lack predictive power away from training data and do not provide predictive confidence estimates. Here, we present a Bayesian residual graph NN that integrates knowledge from low-fidelity data via residual training and embeds granular quantification of uncertainties, improving trustworthiness critical for high-consequence decision-making. Applying Bayesian concepts to NNs is challenging due to the high-dimensionality of both the parameter space, complicating derivation of a meaningful prior, and the output space in large grid systems, requiring enhanced techniques to assess the predicted high-dimensional uncertainties. Our contributions include: (1) Deriving a prior for fully connected and graph NNs that leverages low-fidelity data to guide mean predictions and appropriately control prior predictive uncertainty. (2) Integrating this prior within an ensembling with anchoring scheme for efficient approximate posterior inference. (3) Deriving enhanced metrics to assess accuracy of both the mean and uncertainty predictions in high dimensions, appropriately accounting for correlations propagated through graph layers. The resulting Bayesian residual graph NN is tested on a contingency analysis task for 14-bus and 118-bus grids.

24 - POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2020

Introductory guide to backgrounds in XPS spectra and their impact on determining peak intensities

Photoelectron and Auger peaks are central to most of the important uses of x-ray photoelectron spectroscopy (XPS), and thus, they receive the most attention in many types of analysis. Quantitative chemical analysis using XPS requires the assessment of the intensities of the photoemission peaks of the elements detected. Determination of peak intensities requires separation of the photoelectron peak signals from the background on which the peaks rest. For the determination of peak area intensities, the background is subtracted from overall signal intensity. The spectral background is also critical when peak fitting is used to determine intensities of overlapping peaks, and the model of background used in this process can impact the results. In addition to the impact on quantitative analysis, information about the depth distribution of elements in the near surface region can often be obtained by visual inspection of the background and quantified using appropriate modeling. Here, this introductory guide provides some basic information about backgrounds in the XPS analysis, describes the types of background models that are commonly used, suggests some of their strengths and weaknesses, and provides examples of their use and misuse. Although the fundamental nature of some components of the background signals in XPS is not understood, indicating that none of the models in use are fully correct and the area is subject to active research, appropriate good practices have been established for most routine analysis. The guide describes good practices, identifies errors that frequently appear in the literature, and uses examples to demonstrate the impacts of background selections on determinations of peak intensities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Specular-reflection contributions to static and dynamic radiation forces on circular cylinders

Interest in the response of highly reflecting objects in water to modulated acoustical radiation forces makes it appropriate to consider contributions to such forces from perfectly reflecting objects to provide insight into radiation forces. The acoustic illumination can have wavelengths much smaller than the object's size, and objects of interest may have complicated shapes. Here, the specular contribution to the oscillating radiation force on an infinite circular cylinder at normal incidence is considered for double-sideband-suppressed carrier-modulated acoustic illumination. The oscillatory magnitude of the specular force decreases monotonically with increasing modulation frequency, and the phase of the oscillating force depends on the relative phase of the sidebands. The phase dependence on the modulation frequency can be reduced with the appropriate selection of a sideband relative-phase parameter. That is a consequence of the significance of rays that are incident on the cylinder having small impact parameters that are nearly backscattered. For one choice of a relative sideband phase, a prior partial wave series (PWS) solution is available, which supports the specular analysis when the PWS is evaluated for a rigid cylinder. The importance of specular contributions for aluminum cylinders in water is noted. A specular analysis for an analogous spherical reflector is also summarized.

Marston, Philip L. (ORCID:0000000306778537)↗

DOE OSTI2024

Space-tiled colloidal crystals from DNA-forced shape-complementary polyhedra pairing

Generating space-filling arrangements of most discrete polyhedra nanostructures of the same shape is not possible. However, if the appropriate individual building blocks are selected (e.g., cubes), or multiple shapes of the appropriate dimensions are matched (e.g., octahedra and tetrahedra) and their pairing interactions are subsequently forced, space-filled architectures may be possible. With flexible molecular ligands (polyethylene glycol–modified DNA), the shape of a polyhedral nanoparticle can be deliberately altered and used to realize geometries that favor space tessellation. In this work, 10 new colloidal crystals were synthesized from DNA-modified nanocrystal building blocks that differed in shapes and sizes, designed to form space-filling architectures with micron-scale dimensions. The insights and capabilities provided by this new strategy substantially expand the scope of colloidal crystals possible and provide an expanded tool kit for researchers interested in designing metamaterials.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grassmannian Diffusion Maps--Based Dimension Reduction and Classification for High-Dimensional Data

This work introduces the Grassmannian diffusion maps (GDMaps), a novel nonlinear dimensionality reduction technique that defines the affinity between points through their representation as low-dimensional subspaces corresponding to points on the Grassmann manifold. Here, the method is designed for applications, such as image recognition and data-based classification of constrained high-dimensional data where each data point itself is a high-dimensional object (i.e., a large matrix) that can be compactly represented in a lower-dimensional subspace. The GDMaps is composed of two stages. The first is a pointwise linear dimensionality reduction wherein each high-dimensional object is mapped onto the Grassmann manifold representing the low-dimensional subspace on which it resides. The second stage is a multipoint nonlinear kernel-based dimension reduction using diffusion maps to identify the subspace structure of the points on the Grassmann manifold. To this end, an appropriate Grassmannian kernel is used to construct the transition matrix of a random walk on a graph connecting points on the Grassmann manifold. Spectral analysis of the transition matrix yields low-dimensional Grassmannian diffusion coordinates embedding the data into a low-dimensional reproducing kernel Hilbert space. Further, a novel data classification/recognition technique is developed based on the construction of an overcomplete dictionary of reduced dimension whose atoms are given by the Grassmannian diffusion coordinates. Three examples are considered. First, a "toy" example shows that the GDMaps can identify an appropriate parametrization of structured points on the unit sphere. The second example demonstrates the ability of the GDMaps to revealing the intrinsic subspace structure of high-dimensional random field data. In the last ex- ample, a face recognition problem is solved considering face images subject to varying illumination conditions, changes in face expressions, and occurrence of occlusions. The technique presented high recognition rates (i.e., 95% in the best case) using a fraction of the data required by conventional methods.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2022

Vessel Routing And Suitability Tool

The purpose of this tool is to assist harbor traffic controllers in routing vessel traffic into appropriate ports and piers in an emergency in the Hawaiian Islands. The user inputs information about a vessel coming to port, and the tool returns a list of appropriate options for the vessel to berth within the Hawaiian Islands. Additionally, the application can be used to store cargo data for tracking what locations can be used to lay down cargo in an emergency situation.

Reichenberger, RachelL.↗

DOE OSTI2026

Observational Data for Next-Generation Climate Model Evaluation: Requirements, Considerations, and Best Practices

Climate model simulations are an important source of information about our planet’s climate system and also enable informed decision-making under different future scenarios. As a new archive of results from the next generation of climate models is anticipated to become available with the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 7 (CMIP7), the need to develop efficient and robust methods to evaluate models is paramount. Observations are an integral part of model evaluation, providing a means to quantify and understand the degree to which climate models can faithfully reproduce Earth system processes. Such analysis is critical for constraining climate projections, identifying areas of focus for model development, and assisting analysts in deciphering the utility of models for specific applications. Observations of Earth system come from a diversity of sources, span different space–time domains, and are produced by different communities, and each dataset features different data structures and formats, metadata standards, and its own unique uncertainties. Uncertainties in an observational dataset may stem from gaps in temporal and spatial coverage, instrumentation errors, or assumptions in retrieval and processing methods. How then does one ensure that observational data are ready for use and utilized in the most appropriate way for robust, rapid, and routine climate model evaluation? The CMIP7 Model Benchmarking Task Team with input from the broader climate modeling, model evaluation, and observational data communities present a vision and considerations for best practices toward the optimal and appropriate use of observational data to support next-generation climate model evaluation.

Climate models↗

DOE OSTI2021

How Snow Aggregate Ellipsoid Shape and Orientation Variability Affects Fall Speed and Self-Aggregation Rates

Snow aggregate shapes and orientations have long been known to exhibit substantial variability. Despite this observed variability, most weather and climate prediction models use fixed power-law functions that deterministically map particle size to mass and fall speed. As such, integrated quantities like precipitation and self-aggregation rates currently ignore nonlinear effects resulting from variation in shape and orientation for aggregates of the same size. This study therefore develops an analytic framework that couples an empirically based bivariate distribution of ellipsoid shapes to classical hydrodynamic theory so as to capture an appropriate dispersion of masses, projected areas, and fall speeds for an assumed size distribution. For a fixed aggregate size, shape variations produce approximately ±0.13 m s -1 standard deviation of fall speed which increases the mass flux fall speed dispersion by more than 100% over traditional microphysics models. This increased fall speed dispersion results predominantly from shape-induced mass dispersion whereas orientation and drag dispersion play a lesser role. Shape variations can increase mass- and reflectivity-weighted fall speeds by up to 60% of traditional models whereas self-aggregation rates can increase by a factor of 100 for very small slope parameters. This implies that aggregate shape variations effectively forestall the theorized onset of fall speed distribution narrowing and subsequent quenching of the aggregation process. As a result, it is likely that secondary ice formation is necessary to prevent an ever decreasing slope parameter. The mathematical theory presented in this study is used to develop simple correction factors for snow forecast and climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Numerical and experimental evaluation of mechanical performance of the multifunctional energy storage composites

This work presents numerical simulation methods to model the mechanical behavior of the multifunctional energy storage composites (MESCs), which consist of a stack of multiple thin battery layers reinforced with through-the-hole polymer rivets and embedded inside carbon fiber composite laminates. MESC has been demonstrated through earlier experiments on its exceptional behavior as a structural element as well as a battery. However, the inherent complex infrastructure of the MESC design has created significant challenges in simulation and modeling. A novel homogenization technique was adopted to characterize the multi-layer properties of battery material using physics-based constitutive equations combined with nonlinear deformation theories to handle the interface between the battery layers. Second, mechanical damage and failure modes among battery materials, polymer reinforcements, and carbon fiber-polymer interfaces were characterized through appropriate models and experiments. The model of MESCs has been implemented in a commercial finite element code in ABAQUS. A comparison of structural response and failure modes from numerical simulations and experimental tests are presented. The results of the study showed that the predictions of elastic and damage responses of MESCs at various loading conditions agreed well with the experimental data. © 2021

Materials Science↗