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DOE OSTI2020

On the use of charged particles to characterize precipitation in irradiated reactor pressure vessel steels with a wide range of compositions

Nuclear reactor lifetimes may be limited by nano-scale Cu-Mn-Ni-Si precipitates (CRPs and MNSPs) that form under neutron irradiation (NI) of pressure vessel (RPV) steels, resulting in hardening and ductile to brittle transition temperature increases (embrittlement). Physical models of embrittlement must be based on characterization of precipitation as a function of the combination of metallurgical and irradiation variables. Here we focus on rapid and convenient charged particle irradiations (CPI) to both: a) compare to precipitates formed in NI; and, b) use CPI to efficiently explore precipitation in steels with a very wide range of compositions. Atom probe tomography (APT) comparisons show NI and CPI for similar bulk steel solute contents yield nearly the same precipitate compositions, albeit with some differences in their number density, size and volume fraction (f) dose (dpa) dependence. Yet, the overall precipitate evolutions are very similar. Advanced high Ni (>3 wt%) RPV steels, with superior unirradiated properties, were also investigated at high CPI dpa. For typical Mn contents, MNSPs have Ni 16 Mn 6 Si 7 or Ni 3 Mn 2 Si phase type compositions, with f values that are close to the equilibrium phase separated values. In contrast, in steels with very low Mn and high Ni, Ni 2-3 Si silicide phase type precipitate compositions are observed; and when Ni is low, the precipitate compositions are close to the MnSi phase field. Low Mn significantly reduces, but does not eliminate, precipitation in high Ni steels. A comparison of dispersed barrier model predictions with measured hardening data suggests that the Ni-Si dominated precipitates are weaker dislocation obstacles than the G phase type MNSPs.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Strategy to safely enable X-ray computed tomography examination of highly radioactive tristructural isotropic nuclear fuel

Nondestructive post-irradiation examination of nuclear fuels and materials is useful in collecting data to inform commercial licensing of new nuclear concepts. This work details the planning, shielding design, and workflow of an X-ray computed tomography examination of an irradiated AGR-5/6/7 fuel compact with a dose rate of 1318 R/hr on contact from both β and ɤ-ray radiation with 120 R/hr of the dose rate coming exclusively from ɤ-rays. Post-irradiation examination of highly radioactive samples can help reduce the timeframe from conceptualization of novel nuclear concepts to their commercial implementation as not only is less time spent waiting for experiments to decay away to acceptable levels for examinations, but data from these experiments can more quickly inform model efforts and subsequent experiments. While this work represents the hottest radiological sample that has been openly transported and examined at Idaho National Laboratory’s Irradiated Materials Characterization Laboratory to date, it is anticipated that this work and its lessons learned will facilitate future examinations of similar or even more radioactive specimens.

42 - ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Characterization of Humoral Responses to Nipah Virus Infection in the Syrian Hamster Model of Disease

Abstract Nipah virus (NiV) is a highly pathogenic paramyxovirus. The Syrian hamster model recapitulates key features of human NiV disease and is a critical tool for evaluating antivirals and vaccines. Here we describe longitudinal humoral immune responses in NiV-infected Syrian hamsters. Samples were obtained 1–28 days after infection and analyzed by ELISA, neutralization, and Fc-mediated effector function assays. NiV infection elicited robust antibody responses against the nucleoprotein and attachment glycoprotein. Levels of neutralizing antibodies were modest and only detectable in surviving animals. Fc-mediated effector functions were mostly observed in nucleoprotein-targeting antibodies. Antibody levels and activities positively correlated with challenge dose.

Immunology↗

DOE OSTI2020

Radioactive Source Localization via Bayesian Particle Filter

In the event of a misplaced radioactive source or other emergency situation, measuring a radiation field, mapping its distribution, and determining a source location are essential tasks to ameliorating the situation. However, radiation fields may be extremely hazardous to human surveyors and minimizing received radiation doses is just as essential. Robots appear to be a potential solution to these problems. Beyond simply measuring radiation, the robot's computer processing capabilities offer a way to apply complex data analysis methods to radiation measurements in real-time. Methods which predict likely source locations can then feed this information into other processes, potentially improving path planning and enabling more efficient measurements. Given a robot mounted with a gamma-ray detector, can we: develop a methodology to account for detector performance across a wide range of source angles, distances, and photon energies? operate an autonomously navigating robot to effectively survey and characterize an area of interest? implement a data analysis method, conventionally used in measurements of motion, for source localization purposes? An open-source TurtleBot 3 robot, running Robot Operating System (ROS) on Ubuntu 16.04 LTS, was fitted with a Kromek GR1{sup R} Cadmium Zinc Telluride (CZT) solid-state gamma-ray detector. As a part of ROS, the packages OpenSlam, gmapping, and amcl were used to perform Simultaneous Localization and Mapping (SLAM), determining the robot's position and mapping the surrounding area. Data was acquired via Lidar mounted on top the TurtleBot 3. Detector Calibration Fit: The equation was fit to 365 counts of various energies, distances, and angles. A MATLAB{sup R} program was written to simulate measurements taken a robot on a random walk, with count data and positions discretized into finite element pixels. Using this program, a sample of 100 runs was performed on a map with a simulated source at the center, with a total of 200 of 2 pixels each. Similarly, multiple runs of the filter were performed on recorded robot measurement data. In both simulation and real tests, when corrected for errors (particles placed outside of bounds or on the robot, and simulation-specific errors), corresponding t-tests of predicted x and y-coordinates were within a 95% confidence interval of the actual position. For the real trial, these positions are slightly skewed right in the x-axis as the robot remained mainly to the left side of the source within the sample area. These simulations demonstrate potential validity for the usage of a particle filter as method of radioactive source localization. In the future, true real-time implementation and data fusion may further augment the performance of the robot to localize lost sources. Additionally, identification of multiple sources, determination of source types, and usage of a collimator are areas to potentially be explored.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2022

Characterization of self-magnetic pinch (SMP) radiographic diode performance on RITS-6 at Sandia National Laboratories. I. Diode dynamics, DC heating to extend radiation pulse

Radiographic diodes focus on an intense electron beam to a small spot size to minimize the source area of energetic photons for radiographic interrogation. The self-magnetic pinch (SMP) diode has been developed as such a source and operated as a load for the six-cavity radiographic integrated test stand (RITS-6) inductive voltage adder driver. While experiments support the generally accepted conclusion that a 1:1 aspect diode (cathode diameter equals anode–cathode gap) delivers optimum SMP performance, such experiments also show that reducing the cathode diameter, while reducing spot size, also results in reduced radiation dose, by as much as 50%, and degraded shot reproducibility. Analysis of the effective electron impingement angle on the anode converter with time made possible by a newly developed dose-rate array diagnostic indicates that fast-developing oscillations of the angle are correlated with early termination of the radiation pulse on many of the smaller-diameter SMP shots. This behavior as a function of relative cathode size persists through experiments with output voltages and currents up to 11.5 MV and 225 kA, respectively, and with spot sizes below approximately few millimeters. Since simulations to date have not predicted such oscillatory behavior, considerable discussion of the angle behavior of SMP shots is made to lend credence to the inference. We report there is clear anecdotal evidence that DC heating of the SMP diode region leads to stabilization of this oscillatory behavior. This is the first of two papers on the performance of the SMP diode on the RITS-6 accelerator.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Hydroxyl radical mediated damage of proteins in low oxygen solution investigated using X-ray footprinting mass spectrometry

In the method of X-ray footprinting mass spectrometry (XFMS), proteins at micromolar concentration in solution are irradiated with a broadband X-ray source, and the resulting hydroxyl radical modifications are characterized using liquid chromatography mass spectrometry to determine sites of solvent accessibility. These data are used to infer structural changes in proteins upon interaction with other proteins, folding, or ligand binding. XFMS is typically performed under aerobic conditions; dissolved molecular oxygen in solution is necessary in many, if not all, the hydroxyl radical modifications that are generally reported. In this study we investigated the result of X-ray induced modifications to three different proteins under aerobic versus low oxygen conditions, and correlated the extent of damage with dose calculations. We observed a concentration-dependent protecting effect at higher protein concentration for a given X-ray dose. For the typical doses used in XFMS experiments there was minimal X-ray induced aggregation and fragmentation, but for higher doses we observed formation of covalent higher molecular weight oligomers, as well as fragmentation, which was affected by the amount of dissolved oxygen in solution. The higher molecular weight products in the form of dimers, trimers, and tetramers were present in all sample preparations, and, upon X-ray irradiation, these oligomers became non-reducible as seen in SDS-PAGE. The results provide an important contribution to the large body of X-ray radiation damage literature in structural biology research, and will specifically help inform the future planning of XFMS, and well as X-ray crystallography and small-angle X-ray scattering experiments.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Connecting radiation-driven changes in structural, thermal, and mechanical properties in several medical device polymers

Stemming from security threats and shortages in supply, a recent push has emerged to develop alternatives to radioisotope Cobalt-60 gamma radiation for sterilization of polymeric medical products, including electron beam (e-beam) and X-ray machine-based sources. However, before large-scale implementation, the effects of these non-isotope-based methods must be thoroughly investigated from several perspectives, involving their potential detrimental effects on the structural, thermal, and mechanical properties of polymers in medical devices. This paper investigates such effects in commonly used medical device polymers, including polypropylene homopolymer (PPH), polyolefin elastomer (POE), low-density polyethylene (LDPE), acrylonitrile butadiene styrene (ABS), and chlorobutyl rubber (CIIR). To connect radiation-driven changes in polymer structural and thermal properties and corresponding changes in mechanical properties, several characterization techniques were utilized, including gel permeation chromatography (GPC), Fourier transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), dynamic mechanical analysis (DMA) and differential scanning calorimetry (DSC). We found that the tensile strength of X-ray irradiated PPH, as well as X-ray, e-beam, and gamma irradiated CIIR decreases due to chain scission, which is corroborated by GPC and DMA. The GPC results of LDPE suggest chain scission, but interestingly without a corresponding decline in tensile strength. By comparison, POE and ABS appear to undergo further crosslinking with increasing irradiation dose, which generally strengthens them. Importantly, in the vast majority of the cases, there were small to no changes in properties upon changing radiation technologies (at a given dose), i.e., no radiation source dependence. However, in a few specific cases, radiation method dependencies did arise, for instance, in terms of the molecular weight of PPH being significantly increased upon X-ray irradiation, while the melting temperature, glass transition temperature, and elongation at break reduced compared to gamma. Overall, this study provides valuable insight into radiation-driven chemical and structural changes in polymers that produce changes in physical and functional properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Friction stir welding and self-ion irradiation effects on microstructure and mechanical properties changes within oxide dispersion strengthened steel $\mathrm{MA956}$

We report the joining process for oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) alloys remains a key challenge facing the nuclear community. The microstructure and mechanical properties were characterized in the base material and friction stir welded ODS MA956 irradiated with 5 MeV Fe 2+ ions from 400 to 500°C up to 25 dpa. Nanoindentation was performed to assess changes in hardness and yield stress, and the dispersed barrier hardening (DBH) model was applied to described results. A combination of scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) and atom probe tomography (APT) were used to assess evolution of the microstructure including dispersoids, network dislocations and dislocation loops, nanoclusters, and solid solution concentrations. Overall, softening was observed as a result of increased dose, which was exacerbated at 500°C. The formation and coarsening of new dispersoids was noted while nanoclusters tended to dissolve in the base material, and were not observed in the stir zone. Solute nanocluster evolution was identified as a primary driver of the changes in mechanical properties.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2022

Grain subdivision and structural modifications by high-energy heavy ions in UO 2 with different initial grain size

Irradiation with 84 MeV Xe ions at peak fluence above 7 × 10 17 ions/cm 2 has been carried out on two UO 2 samples with different initial grain sizes at 300 °C and 500 °C. Characterization of both grain structure and bubble morphology has been performed using transmission electron microscopy, image analysis and precession electron diffraction. The bubble size in the large-grained sample was smaller than that in the standard-grain sample, confirming fission gas precipitation resistance in the former. The ion irradiation in the high electronic energy deposition range has caused formation of a large density of dislocations which resulted in grain polygonization for the sample with standard grain size, which was observed in multiple lamellas extracted next to each other at peak dose. The sample with large grains showed inconsistent behavior. In one case, dislocation pile-up occurred, but no sub-grain formation was observed. An adjacent location showed sub-grain formation, even if to less extent compared to the standard grain-size sample. Furthermore, these findings suggest a limited polygonization resistance in large-grained UO 2 compared to standard-grain UO 2 . Recrystallization of both sample surfaces was present, leaving unclear if this is a surface effect or a consequence of the highest energy deposition rate in this area.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Molecular basis for antiviral activity of two pediatric neutralizing antibodies targeting SARS-CoV-2 Spike RBD

Neutralizing antibodies (NAbs) hold great promise for clinical interventions against SARS-CoV-2 variants of concern (VOCs). Understanding NAb epitopedependent antiviral mechanisms is crucial for developing vaccines and therapeutics against VOCs. Here we characterized two potent NAbs, EH3 and EH8, isolated from an unvaccinated pediatric patient with exceptional plasma neutralization activity. EH3 and EH8 cross-neutralize the early VOCsandmediatestrong Fc-dependent effector activity in vitro. Structural analyses of EH3 and EH8 in complex with the receptor-binding domain (RBD) revealed the molecular determinantsoftheepitope-drivenprotectionandVOCevasion.WhileEH3represents the prevalent IGHV3-53 NAb whose epitope substantially overlaps with the ACE2 binding site, EH8 recognizes a narrow epitope exposed in both RBD-up and RBD-down conformations. When tested in vivo, a single-dose prophylactic administration of EH3 fully protected stringent K18-hACE2 micefrom lethal challenge with Delta VOC. Our study demonstrates that protective NAbs responses converge in pediatric and adult SARS-CoV-2 patients.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Emulation of neutron-irradiated microstructure of austenitic 21Cr32Ni model alloy using dual-ion irradiation

Here, in this study, the capability of heavy-ion irradiation to emulate neutron irradiation was demonstrated on an austenitic 21Cr32Ni type ternary model alloy. The model alloy used in this study is chemically analogous but compositionally simpler than of alloy 800H, which is a candidate austenitic Ni alloy which has been proposed for use in Generation IV reactors. The microstructure of the 21Cr32Ni model alloy irradiated in the BOR-60 fast reactor to 17.1 dpa and 35 dpa at ~380°C was characterized using transmission electron microscopy (TEM). The 17.1 dpa BOR-60 irradiated microstructure was then compared with the microstructure of the same material developed under dual-ion (DI) irradiation using various He/dpa ratios between 0.1 and 16.6 appm He/dpa in the temperature range of 430°C-500°C. The results showed that both neutron and DI irradiation of 21Cr32Ni model alloy produced dislocations in the form of a dislocation network as well as {111}-type faulted dislocation loops, cavities, and radiation-induced Ni enrichment at radiation-induced sinks. When the dose and the He/dpa ratio were kept similar to those in neutron irradiation, DI irradiation of the 21Cr32Ni model alloy at 460°C resulted in over-nucleation of small cavities and in a high density of faulted dislocation loops compared to those observed in the fast-neutron irradiated alloy of the same heat irradiated at ~380°C. The optimal condition for reproducing the neutron-irradiated microstructure was DI irradiation at 460°C and 0.1 appm He/dpa. In that case, the faulted loop and cavity size distributions in the BOR-60 irradiated 21Cr32Ni model alloy samples closely matched with those measured in the DI irradiated 21Cr32Ni model alloy sample. The fact that the He/dpa is an order of magnitude smaller than the helium generation rate for fast neutron irradiation, stops over nucleation and allows for the development of a similar microstructure as for neutron irradiation.

21Cr32Ni model alloy↗

DOE OSTI2023

Deletion of the H240R Gene in African Swine Fever Virus Partially Reduces Virus Virulence in Swine

African swine fever (ASF) is a highly contagious disease that affects wild and domestic swine. Currently, the disease is present as a pandemic affecting pork production in Eurasia and the Caribbean region. The etiological agent of ASF is a large, highly complex structural virus (ASFV) harboring a double-stranded genome encoding for more than 160 proteins whose functions, in most cases, have not been experimentally characterized. We show here that deletion of the ASFV gene H240R from the genome of the highly virulent ASFV-Georgia2010 (ASFV-G) isolate partially decreases virus virulence when experimentally inoculated in domestic swine. ASFV-G-ΔH240R, a recombinant virus harboring the deletion of the H240R gene, was produced to evaluate the function of the gene in the development of disease in pigs. While all animals intramuscularly inoculated with 10 2 HAD 50 of ASFV-G developed a fatal form of the disease, forty percent of pigs receiving a similar dose of ASFV-G-ΔH240R survived the infection, remaining healthy during the 28-day observational period, and the remaining sixty percent developed a protracted but fatal form of the disease compared to that induced by ASFV-G. Additionally, all animals inoculated with ASFV-G-ΔH240R presented protracted viremias with reduced virus titers when compared with those found in animals inoculated with ASFV-G. Animals surviving infection with ASFV-G-ΔH240R developed a strong virus-specific antibody response and were protected against the challenge of the virulent parental ASFV-G.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Small Scale Creep Testing of 14YWT via In-situ Transmission Electron Microscopy Irradiation and Nanoindentation

The next generation of nuclear materials must withstand harsh operating conditions such as high temperatures and irradiation doses. Nanostructured ferritic alloys like oxide dispersion strengthened steels, especially 14YWT, have shown promise as a structural material to withstand these harsh operating conditions. For application, understanding the irradiation enhanced creep of the structural components is fundamental to evaluating the service life in a reactor. Challenges with evaluating irradiation enhanced creep are related to the limited space in nuclear reactors and the expense of conducting post irradiation experiments on irradiated cladding. Ion irradiations are considered to expedite irradiation testing, but such experiments have restricted depth of penetration into the material, limiting the ability to characterize changes to material properties after irradiation. Small scale mechanical testing can be used with ion beam irradiations as a potential avenue to evaluate the irradiation enhanced creep of materials. In this study, in-situ transmission electron microscopy nanopillar creep studies on 14YWT were performed and simultaneously ion beam irradiated with 2.8 MeV Au4+ ions. It was observed that the ion beam irradiation did increase the measured strain rate of the materials. In addition, ex-situ nanoindentation creep studies were performed over a range of temperatures on control 14YWT, and it was observed that there was a change in the deformation mechanism between 873 K and 1073 K that agrees well with macro-scale mechanical testing. Furthermore, these results show promise for applying these techniques to nuclear materials in the future.

14 YWT↗

DOE OSTI2021

Single Cell RNA-Seq and Machine Learning Reveal Novel Subpopulations in Low-Grade Inflammatory Monocytes With Unique Regulatory Circuits

Subclinical doses of LPS (SD-LPS) are known to cause low-grade inflammatory activation of monocytes, which could lead to inflammatory diseases including atherosclerosis and metabolic syndrome. Sodium 4-phenylbutyrate is a potential therapeutic compound which can reduce the inflammation caused by SD-LPS. To understand the gene regulatory networks of these processes, we have generated scRNA-seq data from mouse monocytes treated with these compounds and identified 11 novel cell clusters. We have developed a machine learning method to integrate scRNA-seq, ATAC-seq, and binding motifs to characterize gene regulatory networks underlying these cell clusters. Using guided regularized random forest and feature selection, our method achieved high performance and outperformed a traditional enrichment-based method in selecting candidate regulatory genes. Our method is particularly efficient in selecting a few candidate genes to explain observed expression pattern. In particular, among 531 candidate TFs, our method achieves an auROC of 0.961 with only 10 motifs. Finally, we found two novel subpopulations of monocyte cells in response to SD-LPS and we confirmed our analysis using independent flow cytometry experiments. Our results suggest that our new machine learning method can select candidate regulatory genes as potential targets for developing new therapeutics against low grade inflammation.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

System, algorithm, and method using short pulse interrogation with neutrons to detect and identify matter

A system, method, and algorithm for detecting and identifying special nuclear material (SNM) (including fissionable material), explosives, or drugs is disclosed. This material detection system relies on active interrogation of material using a short, intense neutron pulse, and characterization of the resulting prompt gamma response in two short time windows, the first concurrent with and the second immediately following the end of the neutron pulse, optionally subject to a total transit delay time of the neutrons from the neutron source to the target and from the target to the gamma detector. A high data rate analysis system implements data stream analysis and statistical correlations of the two short time window gamma responses to rapidly detect or identify SNM, explosives, or drugs. The duration of the neutron pulse is so short that minimal dose results. Various shields help to minimize the background signal falling on the gamma detector to improve sensitivity.

Derzon, Mark S.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effects of Proton Irradiation on the Performance of Skipper CCDs

Skipper CCDs are a mature detector technology that has been suggested for future space telescope instruments requiring sub-electron readout noise in the near-ultraviolet to the near-infrared. While modern skipper CCDs inherit from the radiation-tolerant p-channel detectors developed by LBNL, the effects of high doses of ionizing radiation on skipper CCDs (such as those expected in space) remains largely unmeasured. We report preliminary results on the performance of p-channel skipper CCDs following irradiation with 217-MeV protons at the Northwestern Medicine Proton Center. The total nonionizing energy loss (NIEL) experienced by the detectors exceeds 6 years at the Sun-Earth Lagrange Point 2 (L2). We demonstrate that the skipper amplifier continues to function as expected following this irradiation. Owing to the low readout noise of these detectors, controlled irradiation tests can be used to sensitively characterize the charge transfer inefficiency, dark current, and the density and time constants of charge traps as a function of proton fluence. We conclude with a brief outlook toward future tests of these detectors at other proton and gamma-ray facilities.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2023

Gold Nanoparticles AuNP Decorated on Fused Graphene-like Materials for Application in a Hydrogen Generation

The search for a sustainable, alternative fuel source to replace fossil fuels has led to an increased interest in hydrogen fuel. This combustible gas is not only clean-burning but can readily be produced via the hydrolysis of sodium borohydride. The main drawback of this reaction is that the reaction occurs relatively slowly and requires a catalyst to improve efficiency. This study explored a novel composite material made by combining gold nanoparticles and fused graphene-like materials (AuFGLM) as a catalyst for generating hydrogen via sodium borohydride. The novel fused graphene-like material (FGLM) was made with a sustainable dextrose solution and by using a pressure-processing method. Imaging techniques showed that FGLM appears to be an effective support template for nanoparticles. Transmission electron microscopy (TEM), scanning electron microscopy (SEM), energy-dispersive X-ray spectroscopy (EDS), Fourier-transform infrared spectroscopy (FTIR), X-ray diffraction (XRD) and Raman spectroscopy were used to characterize and determine the size, shape, and structure of nanoparticles and composites. The TEM study characterized the fused carbon backbone as it began to take on a rounder shape. The TEM images also revealed that the average diameter of the gold nanoparticle was roughly 23 nm. The FTIR study confirmed O-H, C-C, and C=O as functional groups in the materials. The EDS analysis showed that the composite contained approximately 6.3% gold by weight. The crystal structures of FGLM and AuFGLM were identified via P-XRD analysis. Various reaction conditions were used to test the catalytic ability of AuFGLM, including various solution pHs, temperatures, and doses of NaBH 4 . It was observed that optimal reaction conditions included high temperature, an acidic solution pH, and a higher dose of NaBH 4 . The activation energy of the reaction was determined to be 45.5 kJ mol -1 , and it was found that the catalyst could be used multiple times in a row with an increased volume of hydrogen produced in ensuing trials. The activation energy of this novel catalyst is competitive compared to similar catalysts and its ability to produce hydrogen over multiple uses makes the material an exciting choice for catalyzing the hydrolysis of NaBH 4 for use as a hydrogen fuel source.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2021

Regional Relative Risk, a Physics-Based Metric for Characterizing Airborne Infectious Disease Transmission

Airborne infectious disease transmission events occur over a wide range of spatial scales and can be an important means of disease transmission. Physics- and biology-based models can assist in predicting airborne transmission events, overall disease incidence, and disease control strategy efficacy. We describe a new theory that extends current approaches for the case in which an individual is infected by a single airborne particle, including the scenario in which numerous infectious particles are present in the air but only one causes infection. A single infectious particle can contain more than one pathogenic microorganism and be physically larger than the pathogen itself. This approach allows robust relative risk estimates even when there is wide variation in (i) individual exposures and (ii) the individual response to that exposure (the pathogen dose-response function can take any mathematical form and vary by individual). Based on this theory, we propose the regional relative risk—a new metric, distinct from the traditional relative risk metric, that compares the risk between two regions. In theory, these regions can range from individual rooms to large geographic areas. In this paper, we apply the regional relative risk metric to outdoor disease transmission events over spatial scales ranging from 50 m to 20 km, demonstrating that in many common cases minimal input information is required to use the metric. Also, we demonstrate that the model predictions are consistent with data from prior outbreaks. Future efforts could apply and validate this theory for other spatial scales, such as transmission within indoor environments. This work provides context for (i) the initial stages of an airborne disease outbreak and (ii) larger-scale disease spread, including unexpected low-probability disease “sparks” that potentially affect remote populations, a key practical issue in controlling airborne disease outbreaks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗