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DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2020

Effects of Experimental Warming and Elevated CO 2 on CO 2 and CH 4 Fluxes in an Ombrotrophic Black-Spruce. Final Report

High latitude peatlands and permafrost soils contain nearly half of the soil carbon pool on Earth. The potential for large soil C stocks in peatlands and permafrost to become a positive feedback to climate change by increasing net emissions of CO₂ and CH₄ to the atmosphere is a subject of grave concern. This research was conducted at the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Changing Environments (herein SPRUCE) experimental facility, located in the USDA’s Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota. The site is dominated by Picea mariana [herein black spruce], ericaceous shrubs and Sphagnum spp. Ten 12m-diameter open top chambers expose portions of the 8.1-ha S1 bog to warming up to +9°C in 2.25°C increments at ambient and elevated CO₂ (eCO₂, 900ppm). The Finzi lab group began manual measurements of CO₂ and CH₄ fluxes and their C-isotopic compositions in 2014. With funding from the DOE-TES program automated measurements of these species began in 2015. With a one-year no cost extension we were able to make measurements through the 2018 growing season. Across the study period we find that experimental warming of the peatland significantly increases the flux of CO₂ and CH₄ to the atmosphere. The highest temperature treatments had the highest fluxes. As peatlands have complex topography and water table dynamics, many of these results were contingent upon the topographic location in which the measurements were made. In the raised portions of the peatland divorced from the water table, fluxes of CO₂ were high and fluxes of CH₄ were low. By contrast, in the lower portions of the peatland surface, which is at or very near the water table, fluxes of CH₄ were substantially higher. A significant fraction of the total annual CH₄ flux was derived from episodic ebullitive fluxes. The occurrence and size of these ebullitive fluxes also increased with temperature. Experimental fumigation of the black spruce peatland with elevated concentrations of atmospheric CO₂ [herein eCO₂] also had significant effects on emissions of greenhouse gasses. In general these effects were far more subtle than the effects of rising temperature. This indicates that temperature change more than atmospheric chemistry changes are affect the belowground cycle of C in the peatland. Overall, this study shows that boreal peatlands are highly sensitive to changes in temperature. The warmer it becomes the more C will be lost from the peatland to the atmosphere. This appears to create a positive feedback loop that is likely to enhance the concentration of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating sulfurization as a blue carbon sink in a southern California salt marsh

Blue carbon ecosystems such as seagrass meadows, mangrove forests, and salt marshes are important carbon sinks that can store carbon for millennia. Recently, organic matter sulfurization and pyritization have been proposed as mechanisms of net carbon storage in blue carbon ecosystems. At our study site, organic sulfur that is resistant to acid hydrolysis (protokerogen) is an order of magnitude less abundant than pyrite sulfur, suggesting a dominance of pyritization over sulfurization. The C/N ratios and carbon isotope compositions suggest that nearly half of total organic carbon and ≥ 80% of protokerogen is composed of marsh plant material. Sediment protokerogen appears to be sulfurized based on its low δ 34 S values (− 10‰), abundance of disulfides, and higher S/C ratio (~ 1.0%) relative to potential biogenic sulfur sources. However, the interpretation of protokerogen δ 34 S values is complicated by the wide range in sulfur isotope compositions of marsh plants. Evidence for sulfurization occurs within the shallowest sediments across different vegetation zones, yielding consistent products, while pyritization appears to be more sensitive to alterations in sediment redox conditions. Based on organic sulfur and pyrite content, sulfurization may be a more spatially consistent process than pyritization, with implications for carbon storage. The relative abundance of pyrite and protokerogen organic sulfur indicates that pyritization is favored at our study site, but this is likely to vary across the spectrum of blue carbon ecosystems.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Decadal survival of tropical pioneer seeds in the soil seed bank is accompanied by fungal infection and dormancy release

Pioneer trees require high-light environments for successful seedling establishment. Consequently, seeds of these species often persist in the soil seed bank (SSB) for periods ranging from several weeks to decades. How they survive despite extensive pressure from seed predators and soil-borne pathogens remains an intriguing question. Here this study aims to test the hypotheses that decades-old seeds collected from the SSB in a lowland tropical forest remain viable by (i) escaping infection by fungi, which are major drivers of seed mortality in tropical soils, and/or (ii) maintaining high levels of seed dormancy and seed coat integrity when compared to inviable seeds. We collected seeds of Trema micrantha and Zanthoxylum ekmanii at Barro Colorado Island, Panama, from sites where adult trees previously occurred in the past 30 years. We used carbon dating to measure seed age and characterized seed coat integrity, seed dormancy and fungal communities. Viable seeds from the SSB ranged in age from 9 to 30 years for T. micrantha, and 5 to 33 years for Z. ekmanii. We found no evidence that decades-old seeds maintain high levels of seed dormancy or seed coat integrity. Fungi were rarely detected in fresh seeds (no soil contact), but phylogenetically diverse fungi were detected often in seeds from the SSB. Although fungal infections were more commonly detected in inviable seeds than in viable seeds, a lack of differences in fungal diversity and community composition between viable and inviable seeds suggested that viable seeds are not simply excluding fungal species to survive long periods in the SSB. Synthesis. Our findings reveal the importance of a previously understudied aspect of seed survival, where the impact of seed–microbial interactions may be critical to understand long-term persistence in the SSB.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

High-throughput screening of tribological properties of monolayer films using molecular dynamics and machine learning

Monolayer films have shown promise as a lubricating layer to reduce friction and wear of mechanical devices with separations on the nanoscale. These films have a vast design space with many tunable properties that can affect their tribological effectiveness. For example, terminal group chemistry, film composition, and backbone chemistry can all lead to films with significantly different tribological properties. This design space, however, is very difficult to explore without a combinatorial approach and an automatable, reproducible, and extensible workflow to screen for promising candidate films. Here, using the Molecular Simulation Design Framework (MoSDeF), a combinatorial screening study was performed to explore 9747 unique monolayer films (116 964 total simulations) and a machine learning (ML) model using a random forest regressor, an ensemble learning technique, to explore the role of terminal group chemistry and its effect on tribological effectiveness. The most promising films were found to contain small terminal groups such as cyano and ethylene. The ML model was subsequently applied to screen terminal group candidates identified from the ChEMBL small molecule library. Approximately 193 131 unique film candidates were screened with approximately a five order of magnitude speed-up in analysis compared to simulation alone. The ML model was thus able to be used as a predictive tool to greatly speed up the initial screening of promising candidate films for future simulation studies, suggesting that computational screening in combination with ML can greatly increase the throughput in combinatorial approaches to generate in silico data and then train ML models in a controlled, self-consistent fashion.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2021

Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Cosmological implications from two decades of spectroscopic surveys at the Apache Point Observatory

We present the cosmological implications from final measurements of clustering using galaxies, quasars, and Lyα forests from the completed Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) lineage of experiments in large-scale structure. These experiments, composed of data from SDSS, SDSS-II, BOSS, and eBOSS, offer independent measurements of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements of angular-diameter distances and Hubble distances relative to the sound horizon, r d , from eight different samples and six measurements of the growth rate parameter, fσ 8 , from redshift-space distortions (RSD). This composite sample is the most constraining of its kind and allows us to perform a comprehensive assessment of the cosmological model after two decades of dedicated spectroscopic observation. We show that the BAO data alone are able to rule out dark-energy-free models at more than eight standard deviations in an extension to the flat, ΛCDM model that allows for curvature. When combined with Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) measurements of temperature and polarization, under the same model, the BAO data provide nearly an order of magnitude improvement on curvature constraints relative to primary CMB constraints alone. Independent of distance measurements, the SDSS RSD data complement weak lensing measurements from the Dark Energy Survey (DES) in demonstrating a preference for a flat ΛCDM cosmological model when combined with Planck measurements. The combined BAO and RSD measurements indicate σ 8 =0.85±0.03, implying a growth rate that is consistent with predictions from Planck temperature and polarization data and with General Relativity. When combining the results of SDSS BAO and RSD, Planck, Pantheon Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia), and DES weak lensing and clustering measurements, all multiple-parameter extensions remain consistent with a ΛCDM model. Regardless of cosmological model, the precision on each of the three parameters, Ω Λ , H 0 , and σ 8 , remains at roughly 1%, showing changes of less than 0.6% in the central values between models. In a model that allows for free curvature and a time-evolving equation of state for dark energy, the combined samples produce a constraint Ω K =-0.0022±0.0022. The dark energy constraints lead to w 0 =-0.909±0.081 and w a =$-0.49_{-0.30}^{+0.35}$, corresponding to an equation of state of w p =-1.018±0.032 at a pivot redshift z p =0.29 and a Dark Energy Task Force Figure of Merit of 94. The inverse distance ladder measurement under this model yields H 0 =68.18±0.79 km s -1 Mpc -1 , remaining in tension with several direct determination methods; the BAO data allow Hubble constant estimates that are robust against the assumption of the cosmological model. In addition, the BAO data allow estimates of H 0 that are independent of the CMB data, with similar central values and precision under a ΛCDM model. Our most constraining combination of data gives the upper limit on the sum of neutrino masses at Σm ν <0.115 eV (95% confidence). Finally, we consider the improvements in cosmology constraints over the last decade by comparing our results to a sample representative of the period 2000-2010. We compute the relative gain across the five dimensions spanned by w, Ω k , Σm ν , H 0 , and σ 8 and find that the SDSS BAO and RSD data reduce the total posterior volume by a factor of 40 relative to the previous generation. Finally, adding again the Planck, DES, and Pantheon SN Ia samples leads to an overall contraction in the five-dimensional posterior volume of 3 orders of magnitude.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Advancing Multiscale Simulation of Plasma-Surface Interfaces

We report the development of an atomistic-informed, surface-state-dependent predictive model for particle exchange in a carbon-tungsten plasma-surface interface. The predictive model uses machine learning (ML) techniques to learn the energy and angular distributions for particle exchange and rate functions for surface state evolution from molecular dynamics simulations of cumulative bombardment of tungsten by energetic carbon ions. Each predictive component is sensitive to the energy and trajectory of incident plasma species and the surface state. The surface state is represented by a set of surface state descriptors, which were derived from the atomistic surface state for each independent carbon bombardment event. These descriptors are representative of the composition and degree of amorphization of the outermost angstrom of surface material and were chosen to optimize predictive performance for particle exchange at the interface. The distributions for particle exchange (reflection/sputtering) are demonstrated to vary with each surface state descriptor, motivating the development of surface-state-dependent particle exchange models for plasma simulations. The performance of various ML methods was compared, including polynomial quantile regression, artificial neural networks, k-nearest neighbors, and random forest algorithms, with polynomial regression performing the best for interpolation and extrapolation of learned relationships. In addition to the particle exchange model, a neutral network was developed and used to identify data sufficiency throughout surface descriptor space, which will enable real-time feedback during future data production to ensure data is produced where it is most needed, and we provide commentary on improvements to the data production workflow for future endeavors.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Pan-Arctic seasonal cycles and long-term trends of aerosol properties from 10 observatories

Even though the Arctic is remote, aerosol properties observed there are strongly influenced by anthropogenic emissions from outside the Arctic. This is particularly true for the so-called Arctic haze season (January through April). In summer (June through September), when atmospheric transport patterns change, and precipitation is more frequent, local Arctic sources, i.e., natural sources of aerosols and precursors, play an important role. Over the last few decades, significant reductions in anthropogenic emissions have taken place. At the same time a large body of literature shows evidence that the Arctic is undergoing fundamental environmental changes due to climate forcing, leading to enhanced emissions by natural processes that may impact aerosol properties. In this study, we analyze 9 aerosol chemical species and 4 particle optical properties from 10 Arctic observatories (Alert, Kevo, Pallas, Summit, Thule, Tiksi, Barrow/Utgiavik, Villum, and Gruvebadet and Zeppelin Observatory – both at Ny-Ålesund Research Station) to understand changes in anthropogenic and natural aerosol contributions. Variables include equivalent black carbon, particulate sulfate, nitrate, ammonium, methanesulfonic acid, sodium, iron, calcium and potassium, as well as scattering and absorption coefficients, single scattering albedo and scattering Ångström exponent. First, annual cycles are investigated, which despite anthropogenic emission reductions still show the Arctic haze phenomenon. Second, long-term trends are studied using the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen slope method. We find in total 41 significant trends over full station records, i.e., spanning more than a decade, compared to 26 significant decadal trends. The majority of significantly declining trends is from anthropogenic tracers and occurred during the haze period, driven by emission changes between 1990 and 2000. For the summer period, no uniform picture of trends has emerged. Twenty-six percent of trends, i.e., 19 out of 73, are significant, and of those 5 are positive and 14 are negative. Negative trends include not only anthropogenic tracers such as equivalent black carbon at Kevo, but also natural indicators such as methanesulfonic acid and non-sea-salt calcium at Alert. Positive trends are observed for sulfate at Gruvebadet. No clear evidence of a significant change in the natural aerosol contribution can be observed yet. However, testing the sensitivity of the Mann–Kendall Theil–Sen method, we find that monotonic changes of around 5 % yr –1 in an aerosol property are needed to detect a significant trend within one decade. This highlights that long-term efforts well beyond a decade are needed to capture smaller changes. It is particularly important to understand the ongoing natural changes in the Arctic, where interannual variability can be high, such as with forest fire emissions and their influence on the aerosol population. To investigate the climate-change-induced influence on the aerosol population and the resulting climate feedback, long-term observations of tracers more specific to natural sources are needed, as well as of particle microphysical properties such as size distributions, which can be used to identify changes in particle populations which are not well captured by mass-oriented methods such as bulk chemical composition.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Short-term warming increased soil heterotrophic respiration due to enhanced active microbial community

Soil microbes, particularly active microbes, play a crucial role in conserving soil carbon under climate change, especially in forest ecosystems, constituting over 50% of global soil organic carbon. Nevertheless, the response mechanisms of active microbial community to climate warming and their subsequent impacts on soil heterotrophic respiration (Rh) remain insufficiently understood. To resolve this mechanistic uncertainty, we implemented a 3-year soil translocation experiment to investigate soil warming effects on active microbial community and Rh. We used 16S rRNA gene amplicon sequencing, Metatranscriptomics sequencing, coupled with correlation analyses to explore the linkages between warming-induced shifts in Rh and the active microbial community. Our results demonstrated that warming of soil induced a 55% enhancement in Rh. Concurrently, the Shannon index and Richness of active microbial community increased by 20% and 117%, respectively. Warming significantly altered active microbial community composition, inducing a compositional shift characterized by 0.5-to 2-fold increases in the abundances of Proteobacteria, Chloroflexi, and Actinobacteria. Our study also revealed 92–100% increases in the abundance of C-degradation functional genes encoding starch, cellulose, and lignin decomposition pathways within active microbial community under warming. Statistical analyses identified significant positive correlations between Rh and the abundance of Proteobacteria and Actinobacteria, as well as expression levels of functional genes associated with lignin and cellulose decomposition pathways. Furthermore, our results suggested that short-term warming increased Rh through altering diversity, species composition, and C degradation functional genes of active microbial community providing insights into the influence of microbial communities on soil C-climate feedbacks under climate warming.

Active microbial community↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data-driven analysis and prediction of stable phases for high-entropy alloy design

High-entropy alloys (HEAs) represent a promising class of materials with exceptional structural and functional properties. However, their design and optimization pose challenges due to the large composition-phase space coupled with the complex and diverse nature of the phase formation dynamics. In this study, a data-driven approach that utilizes machine learning (ML) techniques to predict HEA phases and their composition-dependent phases is proposed. By employing a comprehensive dataset comprising 5692 experimental records encompassing 50 elements and 11 phase categories, we compare the performance of various ML models. Our analysis identifies the most influential features for accurate phase prediction. Furthermore, the class imbalance is addressed by employing data augmentation methods, raising the number of records to 1500 in each category, and ensuring a balanced representation of phase categories. The results show that XGBoost and Random Forest consistently outperform the other models, achieving 86% accuracy in predicting all phases. Additionally, this work provides an extensive analysis of HEA phase formers, showing the contributions of elements and features to the presence of specific phases. We also examine the impact of including different phases on ML model accuracy and feature significance. Notably, the findings underscore the need for ML model selection based on specific applications and desired predictions, as feature importance varies across models and phases. This study significantly advances the understanding of HEA phase formation, enabling targeted alloy design and fostering progress in the field of materials science.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2020

The Completed SDSS-IV extended Baryon Oscillation Spectroscopic Survey: Cosmological Implications from two Decades of Spectroscopic Surveys at the Apache Point observatory

We present the cosmological implications from final measurements of clustering using galaxies, quasars, and Ly$\alpha$ forests from the completed Sloan Digital Sky Survey (SDSS) lineage of experiments in large-scale structure. These experiments, composed of data from SDSS, SDSS-II, BOSS, and eBOSS, offer independent measurements of baryon acoustic oscillation (BAO) measurements of angular-diameter distances and Hubble distances relative to the sound horizon, $r_d$, from eight different samples and six measurements of the growth rate parameter, $f\sigma_8$, from redshift-space distortions (RSD). This composite sample is the most constraining of its kind and allows us to perform a comprehensive assessment of the cosmological model after two decades of dedicated spectroscopic observation. We show that the BAO data alone are able to rule out dark-energy-free models at more than eight standard deviations in an extension to the flat, $\Lambda$CDM model that allows for curvature. When combined with Planck Cosmic Microwave Background (CMB) measurements of temperature and polarization the BAO data provide nearly an order of magnitude improvement on curvature constraints. The RSD measurements indicate a growth rate that is consistent with predictions from Planck primary data and with General Relativity. When combining the results of SDSS BAO and RSD with external data, all multiple-parameter extensions remain consistent with a $\Lambda$CDM model. Regardless of cosmological model, the precision on $\Omega_\Lambda$, $H_0$, and $\sigma_8$, remains at roughly 1\%, showing changes of less than 0.6\% in the central values between models. The inverse distance ladder measurement under a o$w_0w_a$CDM yields $H_0= 68.20 \pm 0.81 \, \rm km\, s^{-1} Mpc^{-1}$, remaining in tension with several direct determination methods. (abridged)

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗

DOE OSTI2024

SPRUCE Quantitative PCR (qPCR) of Microbial Gene Copy Numbers, 2021-2022

This dataset provides the results for quantitative polymerase chain reaction (qPCR) of peat samples collected from ambient and experimental plots in the Spruce and Peatland Responses Under Climatic and Environmental Change (SPRUCE) experiment site in June and August of 2021, and June of 2022. SPRUCE is located within the Marcell Experimental Forest in northern Minnesota, USA. The dataset includes bacterial, archaeal, fungal gene copy numbers, along with corresponding logarithmic values, at 11 depth increments of two-meter deep peat cores taken from 12 sampling sites locations inside SPRUCE plots (10 chambered and 2 ambient plots). The sampling, sample prep and analysis followed standard methods outlined in prior publications (Wilson et al. 2016; Kluber et al. 2020) except that a higher yielding Omega Bio-Tek Mag-Bind Environmental DNA 96 Kit was used for extractions and DNA was quantified using Qubit dsDNA High Sensitivity Assay Kit. qPCR subsamples of peat cores from the SPRUCE plots characterize changes in the abundance and composition of microbial communities of peat seasonally showing how composition varies under multiple levels of experimental peat warming and atmospheric CO2 concentrations. This dataset contains one data file in comma-separated values (.csv) format. Additional metadata are provided: one data dictionary and a file-level metadata file in comma-separated values (.csv) format and a user guide in PDF (*.pdf) format. On 2026-07-07 this dataset was updated to add three columns to the data file: ‘Fungal_copy_dry’, ‘Log_fungal_copy_dry’, ‘Fungal_copy_wet’. No previously released data values were altered. Additionally, the abstract, data dictionary, and user guide were updated, and a file-level metadata file was added.

Archaea↗

DOE OSTI2020

Rainforest-to-pasture conversion stimulates soil methanogenesis across the Brazilian Amazon

The Amazon rainforest is a biodiversity hotspot and large terrestrial carbon sink threatened by agricultural conversion. Rainforest-to-pasture conversion stimulates the release of methane, a potent greenhouse gas. The biotic methane cycle is driven by microorganisms; therefore, this study focused on active methane-cycling microorganisms and their functions across land-use types. We collected intact soil cores from three land use types (primary rainforest, pasture, and secondary rainforest) of two geographically distinct areas of the Brazilian Amazon (Santarém, Pará and Ariquemes, Rondônia) and performed DNA stable-isotope probing coupled with metagenomics to identify the active methanotrophs and methanogens. At both locations, we observed a significant change in the composition of the isotope-labeled methane-cycling microbial community across land use types, specifically an increase in the abundance and diversity of active methanogens in pastures. We conclude that a significant increase in the abundance and activity of methanogens in pasture soils could drive increased soil methane emissions. Furthermore, we found that secondary rainforests had decreased methanogenic activity similar to primary rainforests, and thus a potential to recover as methane sinks, making it conceivable for forest restoration to offset greenhouse gas emissions in the tropics. These findings are critical for informing land management practices and global tropical rainforest conservation.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Investigating Secondary Aerosol Processes in the Amazon through Molecular-level Characterization of Semi-Volatile Organics

In areas where biogenic emissions are oxidized in the presence of anthropogenic pollutants, it has become increasingly apparent that secondary organic aerosol (SOA) formation from biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) is substantially enhanced. The Amazon forest is the dominant source of BVOCs globally, and the forest is rapidly being converted to urban and agricultural uses. We participated in a collaborative field study located in the Amazon region around Manaus, Brazil, in 2014 (Green Ocean Amazon; GoAmazon). This study was designed to comprehensively examine how BVOC emissions (specifically, the most highly emitted non-methane hydrocarbon, isoprene, and lesser studied sesquiterpenes) and their interaction with anthropogenic pollution (i.e., nitrogen oxides, sulfur dioxide, and black carbon) alter the atmosphere’s oxidative capacity, influence secondary aerosol formation, atmospheric composition and, ultimately, affect the earth’s radiation balance and climate. We provide the first hourly, in-situ measurement of 30 sesquiterpenes and 4 diterpenes, roughly estimating that sesquiterpene oxidation contributes to 10-14% of ozone reactive loss by terpenes and at least 0.4–5% (median 1 %) of total submicron OA mass. However, this is likely a low-end estimate, as evidence for additional unaccounted sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products clearly exists. We also provide new perspectives on sulfate, NO x , and particle acidity influencing isoprene-derived SOA, comparing the central Amazon environment with Southeastern U.S.A. summer, representing clean to polluted conditions, respectively. We find that summed concentrations of isoprene-derived SOA tracers correlated with particulate sulfate spanning three orders of magnitude, suggesting that 1 μg m -3 reduction in sulfate corresponds with at least ~0.5 μg m -3 reduction in isoprene-derived SOA. We also find that SOA mass derived from isoprene oxidation in the presence of NO x is primarily comprised of aerosol sulfate bound with isoprene oxidation products (i.e. organosulfates), ~97% in the Amazon and ~55% in the Southeastern U.S. We infer under natural conditions in high isoprene emission regions, preindustrial aerosol sulfate was almost exclusively isoprene-derived organosulfates, which are traditionally thought as representative of anthropogenic influence. We further report the first field observations showing that particle acidity impacts the distribution of isoprene oxidation tracers in the gas and particle phases, providing physicochemical insight into isoprene SOA formation chemistry. Coupled with other co-located measurements by the DOE Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) team and collaborating PIs at our measurement site (called T3), on the G1 aircraft, and at additional field sites (T0, T1, T2) this data set has been used to understand emission, oxidation, and particle formation pathways at the molecular level, to elucidate how these pathways change when influenced by anthropogenic sources, and to evaluate their importance for the atmospheric budget of aerosols and the earth’s radiation balance on regional scales. Recommendations: Further constraint of the role of sesquiterpenes on ozone (O 3 ) reactivity and SOA formation is limited by the availability of authentic standards and synthesized compounds of sesquiterpenes and their oxidation products. Future research efforts should focus on making such standards available via custom synthesis to allow for accurate quantification and focused oxidation experiments that will fully elucidate the chemistry of these compounds in the atmosphere. Further, reductions in aerosol sulfate (via SO 2 emissions control) continues to be one of the most effective methods to reduce SOA formation from isoprene, but the concerted role of ammonia (NH 3 ) gas emissions from (agricultural) industry and other sources requires more investigation to better understand the role of aerosol acidity in SOA formation and potential controls. As GoAmazon particles can be more acidic compared to areas with greater anthropogenic NH 3 emissions, this promotes relatively greater organosulfate (OS) formation from isoprene even in the presence of NO x . Because OS and inorganic sulfate differ in water uptake properties, this implies preindustrial aerosol sulfate (albeit less abundant) may have been less reflective than current earth system models assume. Further research should investigate the radiative impacts of organic vs inorganic sulfate in aerosols to improve model representation. Finally, future work (currently underway) should include constraint of the contributions of monoterpene (C 10 H 16 ) BVOCs and biomass burning VOCs as precursors to SOA formation in the region as well as their impacts on radiative forcing in the climate system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Monolayer Films of Binary Metal Oxide Nanoparticles for Carbon Nanotube Synthesis

Binary metal oxide nanoparticles (biMO-NPs) combining transition and main-group metals with well-organized atomic architectures have unique potential as robust and economical heterogeneous catalysts. Herein, metal oxide nanoparticles (CoAlxOy) using cobalt and aluminum were synthesized, and their structure, morphology, and chemical composition were investigated using various characterization techniques. The biMO-NPs, which had a Gaussian-type size distribution (∼6 nm), were assembled on plain silicon substrates modified chemically with linker molecules bearing suitable end groups. Surface analysis revealed an ordered, uniform, close-packed arrangement of biMO-NPs forming a monolayer architecture with nanoscale thickness (∼12 nm), high surface uniformity, and negligible defects. The nanoparticle monolayer film (NP-MF) was employed as a catalyst to grow carbon nanotube (CNT) forests via the thermal chemical vapor deposition (CVD) method, similar to those grown from catalyst thin films deposited by physical vapor deposition. Structural characterization confirmed the growth of a dense, uniform, high-quality vertically aligned carbon nanotube (VA-CNT) forest with a length of ∼125 µm, which is comparable to the VA-CNTs grown from expensive thin films. Thus, CNT growth was successfully catalyzed by the biMO-NPs, highlighting a simple and inexpensive alternative for catalyst deposition. In this innovative wet-chemistry approach, the catalyst and catalyst support are combined within a single nanoparticle before NP-MF assembly. Interestingly, this approach provides a scalable and cost-effective pathway for CNT growth, eliminating the need for expensive thin deposition techniques.

Regmi, Bishow [University of Cincinnati]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Estimating Switchgrass Biomass Yield and Lignocellulose Composition from UAV-Based Indices

Innovative methods for estimating commercial-scale switchgrass yields and feedstock quality are essential to optimize harvest logistics and biorefinery efficiency for sustainable aviation fuel production. This study utilized vegetation indices (VIs) derived from multispectral images to predict biomass yield and lignocellulose concentrations of advanced bioenergy-type switchgrass cultivars (“Liberty” and “Independence”) under two N rates (28 and 56 kg N ha –1 ). Field-scale plots were arranged in a randomized complete block design (RCBD) and replicated three times at Urbana, IL. Multispectral images captured during the 2021–2023 growing seasons were used to extract VIs. The results show that linear and exponential models outperformed partial least square and random forest models, with mid-August imagery providing the best predictions for biomass, cellulose, and hemicellulose. The green normalized difference vegetation index (GNDVI) was the best univariate predictor for biomass yield (R 2 = 0.86), while a multivariate combination of the GNDVI and normalized difference red-edge index (NDRE) enhanced prediction accuracy (R 2 = 0.88). Cellulose was best predicted using the NDRE (R 2 = 0.53), whereas hemicellulose prediction was most effective with a multivariate model combining the GNDVI, NDRE, NDVI, and green ratio vegetation index (GRVI) (R 2 = 0.44). These findings demonstrate the potential of UAV-based VIs for the in-season estimation of biomass yield and cellulose concentration.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Machine learning-enabled discovery of ionic liquid–solvent electrolytes exhibiting high ionic conductivity

Ionic liquids (ILs), which are a class of materials with versatile nature and growing popularity, are facing impediments toward widespread usage as electrolytes due to various factors such as low ionic conductivity, high viscosity, high market price etc. One of the ways these limitations can be addressed is by mixing ILs with a molecular solvent. In a combinatorial sense, there exists an immense number of specific IL–solvent combinations. An exhaustive experimental or even simulation-based investigation of the chemical space spanned by such combinations can be extremely time-consuming, expensive, and nearly impossible. An alternative approach is to employ machine learning-based models developed from available databases. Although there exists prior literature that integrates machine learning to investigate mixtures of specific solvents with ILs, these models lack generalization necessitating development of a large number of ML models to handle various solvents. To remedy this shortcoming, as a part of designing green electrolytes with high ionic conductivity that can have potential applications in next-generation batteries and solar cells, this work aims to develop a unified machine learning model to predict ionic conductivity of any IL–solvent mixture system. In this regard, three models, namely, Random Forest, extreme gradient boosting (XGBoost), and artificial neural network (ANN) were formulated using the NIST ILThermo database. The dataset contained 549 unique ionic liquids from 16 cation families and 81 unique solvents, representing a total of 23 712 datapoints. SHAPLEY additive explanation (SHAP) method was used to assess the impact of various features on model prediction and their significance was compared with literature to gain physical insight about the model behavior. Finally, using the developed models, approximately 2.5 million IL–solvent mixtures at five different compositions were screened at room temperature. The high-throughput screening yielded nearly 19 000 IL–solvent mixtures for which ionic conductivity was found to exceed the ionic conductivity of conventional Li-ion battery electrolyte.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

DOE OSTI2020

Predictions of the glass transition temperature and viscosity of organic aerosols from volatility distributions

Abstract. Volatility and viscosity are important properties of organic aerosols (OA), affecting aerosol processes such as formation, evolution, and partitioning of OA. Volatility distributions of ambient OA particles have often been measured, while viscosity measurements are scarce. We have previously developed a method to estimate the glass transition temperature (Tg) of an organic compound containing carbon, hydrogen, and oxygen. Based on analysis of over 2400 organic compounds including oxygenated organic compounds, as well as nitrogen- and sulfur-containing organic compounds, we extend this method to include nitrogen- and sulfur-containing compounds based on elemental composition. In addition, parameterizations are developed to predict Tg as a function of volatility and the atomic oxygen-to-carbon ratio based on a negative correlation between Tg and volatility. This prediction method of Tg is applied to ambient observations of volatility distributions at 11 field sites. The predicted Tg values of OA under dry conditions vary mainly from 290 to 339 K and the predicted viscosities are consistent with the results of ambient particle-phase-state measurements in the southeastern US and the Amazonian rain forest. Reducing the uncertainties in measured volatility distributions would improve predictions of viscosity, especially at low relative humidity. We also predict the Tg of OA components identified via positive matrix factorization of aerosol mass spectrometer (AMS) data. The predicted viscosity of oxidized OA is consistent with previously reported viscosity of secondary organic aerosols (SOA) derived from α-pinene, toluene, isoprene epoxydiol (IEPOX), and diesel fuel. Comparison of the predicted viscosity based on the observed volatility distributions with the viscosity simulated by a chemical transport model implies that missing low volatility compounds in a global model can lead to underestimation of OA viscosity at some sites. The relation between volatility and viscosity can be applied in the molecular corridor or volatility basis set approaches to improve OA simulations in chemical transport models by consideration of effects of particle viscosity in OA formation and evolution.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗