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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2022

Analysis of precooling optimization for residential buildings

To reduce peak demand and/or energy cost for residential buildings, optimal precooling strategies are becoming important as an alternative to rule-based precooling strategies that are intuitive but may not be optimal. Since precooling optimization is heavily dependent on a variety of factors such as the home thermal properties, HVAC system, weather, thermal comfort criteria, and utility rate structure, the individual and collective impact of these factors on precooling performance needs to be analyzed. In addition, since the indoor air temperature is affected by heat transfer to and from the interior wall surface, performance analysis in view of the interior wall surface temperature is also essential. Therefore, in this paper, an optimal precooling strategy that accounts for the aforementioned factors and utilizes a second-order thermal network model, is proposed. With this strategy, the HVAC on/off control signal that minimizes 24-hour energy cost while maintaining thermal comfort, is determined. Through extensive simulations, it is found that the proposed optimal precooling strategy is able to adapt to changing conditions and that having a sufficiently low interior wall surface temperature during precooling is critical for avoiding expensive on-peak operation. Here, the reason for the latter is that such a temperature indicates that enough “cooling energy” has been stored. It is also found that weather has the most dominant impact on the precooling performance, followed by home thermal condition, with the rated cooling capacity and utility rate structure having the least impact.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2022

Resilient cooling through geothermal district energy system

Decarbonization and resilience to heat waves have recently become high priorities for building and district energy systems. Geothermal coupled district heating and cooling systems that operate a water loop near ground temperature gain increasing adoption to support decarbonization. In these systems, vapor-compression machines, distributed in the energy transfer stations, lift the temperature up or down to the needs of the particular building. In principle, these systems can provide low-power, free cooling from the geothermal bore field during heat waves when electricity is often scarce. However, the performance of such a resilience operation mode and its implication on the energy system configuration and the sizing of the bore field and HVAC equipment is not yet understood. Consequently, we are assessing their resilience, power use and design implications under a scenario of a heat wave on five working days during which chillers are switched off to reduce electrical consumption. Our analysis is based on high-fidelity, coupled dynamic models of district energy, building-side HVAC and actual control logic, with whole building energy simulation used to assess thermal conditions in a 2004 vintage multi-zone office building in Chicago, IL. The results show that relying only on waterside economizer cooling, the indoor thermal conditions can be maintained in a tolerable range for the majority of the building zones with half the electrical energy compared to standard chiller operation. Thermal comfort in the hottest zones can be further improved by oversizing the cooling coil. However, the waterside economizer has significant implications on the system configuration and sizing: The geothermal bore field needs to be sized about 30% larger than the upper limit of the range observed for conventional geothermal systems. Nevertheless, if a central chiller plant is added, the bore field can be downsized to the typical design range. The latter configuration still allows compressor-less cooling during the heat wave with peak power reduced by 60% compared to the standard design and chiller operation.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2023

A review of experimental methods to determine bioaerosol transfer in energy recovery ventilators

Increasing ventilation is an effective method to reduce indoor airborne disease transmission. An Energy recovery ventilator (ERV) is a passive energy recovery device used to reduce the energy consumption of heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems for conditioning the ventilation air. It preconditions the ventilation air by transferring energy from building exhaust air. Therefore, the ventilation and exhaust air streams interact directly/indirectly in the ERV for energy transfer. It is surmised that the ERV may transfer bioaerosols (with pathogens) from the exhaust air to ventilation air, resulting in the spread of infectious diseases. Consequently, many pandemic HVAC guidelines recommend that the use of ERVs be limited. This is a highly unsustainable direction given the increased energy requirements associated with the high ventilation provision advocated for pandemic operation. It must be noted that no validated experimental evidence exists in literature for bioaerosol transfer in ERVs. Hence, it is necessary to conduct extensive bioaerosol transfer research before adopting the unsustainable practice of limiting the utilization of ERVs. The main objective of this review study is to summarize the experimental methods and instrumentation for bioaerosol transfer research in ERVs. This comprehensive article provides a detailed overview of the generation, sampling, and analysis of bioaerosols for conducting the experiments. Further, it explains the possible mechanisms for bioaerosol transfer in various types of ERVs based on which the ERVs that need immediate attention are identified. The main contribution of this research paper is that it provides a novel experimental method which encompasses the biosafety aspects, instrumentation, performance parameters and uncertainties in conducting virus contained bioaerosol transfer study in ERVs. The findings from this review will be helpful in designing bioaerosol transfer experiments and developing future ERV test standards for such experiments.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2026

Analysis of strategies to meet ASHRAE S241 infectious aerosol control targets by space type and region using EnergyPlus™ simulations

Professional organizations, such as ASHRAE, have recently proposed new voluntary standards for controlling infectious aerosols. Specifically, ASHRAE Standard 241 (S241) defines equivalent clean air targets for a range of space types that can be met through combinations of mitigation measures. This paper seeks to inform the selection of measures by space type and climate zone through building simulations that quantify the impacts of increased outdoor air ventilation; increasing filtration and/or adding germicidal ultraviolet (GUV) in the central heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems; or using portable air cleaners (PACs), upper room GUV, or whole room GUV approaches to increase equivalent clean air delivery. The measures are assessed individually and in practical combinations for their ability to meet S241 in four space types (offices, classrooms, dining areas, and healthcare waiting rooms) using prototype buildings modeled using EnergyPlus. The mitigation measures are compared holistically against baseline building operations using metrics for equivalent clean air, energy, and comfort. The results in this study show that single measures can meet S241 for offices with minimal impacts on energy and comfort, while either upper room GUV systems or combinations of measures such as MERV 13 HVAC filtration with PACs are needed to meet S241 for classrooms. The dining area and healthcare waiting room targets cannot be met in this study when assuming design occupancy and MS2 as the challenge agent, even when combining multiple measures together. This paper provides valuable considerations when designing measures to meet S241 for a range of spaces and scenarios.

GUV↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-invasive (non-contact) measurements of human thermal physiology signals and thermal comfort/discomfort poses -A review

Heating, ventilation and air-conditioning (HVAC) systems have been adopted to create comfortable, healthy and safe indoor environments. In the control loop, the technical feature of the human demand-oriented supply can help operate HVAC effectively. Among many technical options, real time monitoring based on feedback signals from end users has been frequently reported as a critical technology to confirm optimizing building performance. Recent studies have incorporated human thermal physiology signals and thermal comfort/discomfort status as real-time feedback signals. A series of human subject experiments used to be conducted by primarily adopting subjective questionnaire surveys in a lab-setting study, which is limited in the application for reality. With the help of advanced technologies, physiological signals have been detected, measured and processed by using multiple technical formats, such as wearable sensors. Nevertheless, they mostly require physical contacts with the skin surface in spite of the small physical dimension and compatibility with other wearable accessories, such as goggles, and intelligent bracelets. Most recently, a low cost small infrared camera has been adopted for monitoring human facial images, which could detect the facial skin temperature and blood perfusion in a contactless way. Also, according to latest pilot studies, a conventional digital camera can generate infrared images with the help of new methods, such as the Euler video magnification technology. Human thermal comfort/discomfort poses can also be detected by video methods without contacting human bodies and be analyzed by the skeleton keypoints model. Here, new sensing technologies were summarized, their cons and pros were discussed, and extended applications for the demand-oriented ventilation were also reviewed as potential development and applications.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Flexible and Generic Functional Mock-up Unit Based Threat Injection Framework for Grid-interactive Efficient Buildings: A Case Study in Modelica

Grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) have been considered as an important asset to support the power grid reliability by utilizing the demand flexibility offered by GEBs. GEBs are enabled by advances in sensors and controls, and the communication between building equipment, whole buildings, and the grid. The integration of different building technologies and network-based communication system makes GEBs vulnerable to passive threats such as equipment failure and active threats such as cyber-attacks. Modeling and simulation is an effective way to evaluate the impact of threats on the system performance. This paper proposes a generic and flexible threat injection framework for commonly-used building energy simulators such as EnergyPlus and Modelica to support threat modeling and evaluation. This framework leverages functional mock-up unit (FMU) to develop a general modeling interface for threat injection and simulation. A numerical case study using Modelica as a building energy simulator is conducted to demonstrate the capability of the framework for supporting single/multiple-order threat modeling and simulation of a GEB. Four threats and their combinations are injected on a Modelica-based threat-free building energy and control system, including operating supply fan at its full speed, remotely cycling the chiller on and off, blocking the chiller from receiving the chilled water supply temperature setpoints, and hijacking the global zone air temperature setpoint. Simulation results show that the cyber-attack that leads to short-term signal blocking has small effects on the system operation due to the "self-healing" feature of the heating, ventilation, and air-conditioning (HVAC) interactive control system. The threat that takes control of resetting the global zone air temperature setpoints has the most adverse impact on the system energy use, peak power demand, thermal comfort and the provision of demand flexibility. The combination of four threats have aggregative effects on the system but the effects are less than the additive effects of the individual threat.

Fu, Yanyang↗
DOE OSTI2022

MPC solution for optimal load shifting for buildings with ON/OFF staged packaged units: Experimental demonstration, and lessons learned

Small and medium-sized commercial buildings (SMCB) are significant demand response resources, and it is important to develop grid-responsive control algorithms that exploit those resources and create financial benefits for building owners and HVAC service providers. Furthermore, unlike large-sized commercial buildings, there is an opportunity to have universally applicable control solutions for many SMCBs since those buildings have a consistent HVAC system configuration: SMCBs are commonly served by multiple-staged air conditioning units controlled by their own thermostats. Despite the demand response potential and scalability, however, very few control solutions are available for SMCBs. Typical model predictive control (MPC) and heuristic control approaches for cooling load shifting that lower thermostat setpoints before an electric price jump are suitable mainly for large-sized commercial buildings where a continuous capacity modulation is possible, e.g., via dampers in variable air volume terminal units. However, those approaches can cause undesired, high peaks for SMCBs due to the nature of ON/OFF unit staging and narrow thermostat deadbands. This could discourage the use of advanced grid-responsive controls for SMCBs due to the concern of high demand charges, and has to be resolved. This paper presents a MPC solution that overcomes this challenge. It has a hierarchical MPC structure where an upper level MPC is responsible for electrical load shifting in response to an electric price signal while a lower level MPC is responsible for coordinating compressor stages to eliminate unnecessary peaks and follows the setpoints determined by the upper level MPC. In this work, two one-month, comprehensive laboratory tests have been carried out to demonstrate load shifting and cost savings for the algorithm. Interesting trade-offs between energy efficiency and load flexibility were observed and are discussed, and lessons learned for applying MPCs for SMCBs are also presented.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

Implementation and test of an automated control hunting fault correction algorithm in a fault detection and diagnostics tool

Control hunting due to improper proportional–integral–derivative (PID) parameters in the building automation system (BAS) is one of the most common faults identified in commercial buildings. It can cause suboptimal performance and early failure of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) equipment. Commercial fault detection and diagnostics (FDD) software represents one of the fastest growing market segments in smart building technologies in the United States. Implementation of PID retuning procedures as an auto-correction algorithm and integration into FDD software has the potential to mitigate control hunting across a heterogeneous portfolio of buildings with different BAS in a scalable way. This paper presents the development, implementation, and field testing of an automated control hunting fault correction algorithm based on lambda tuning open-loop rules. The algorithm was developed in a commercial FDD software and successfully tested among nine variable air volume boxes in an office building in the United States. The paper shows the feasibility of using FDD tools to automatically correct control hunting faults, discusses scalability considerations, and proposes a path forward for the HVAC industry and academia to further improve this technology.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2023

The first field application of a low-cost MPC for grid-interactive K-12 schools: Lessons-learned and savings assessment

K-12 schools are the largest energy consumers in the public sector, with their HVAC energy consumption representing the largest portion of their total energy use. While transitioning these schools to grid-interactive HVAC system operation through advanced controls offers significant financial and environmental benefits, and model predictive control (MPC) has been identified as a promising solution to achieve that, very few MPCs are affordable and have been deployed in K-12 schools. This situation raises concerns about the unclear real-world benefits of MPC technology among facility managers and industries. To address this gap, this paper presents a low-cost MPC solution that requires minimal control infrastructure costs and a unique field demonstration at a K-12 school, conducted for both cooling and heating seasons. This work adopted a previously developed MPC and extended it for use in the school application. The MPC aims to coordinate multiple packaged units to eliminate unnecessary peaks and shift cooling or heating loads in response to grid signals based on load conditions, while maintaining thermostat temperatures within school-defined bounds. Throughout the field tests, the MPC achieved a 24% reduction in peak demand during the cooling season and shifted cooling or heating loads by up to 16% in response to the school's utility tariff, considering load conditions, while also allowing end-users to override thermostat setpoints. Further, the paper also discusses the limitations of this study and future research directions for better performance of the MPC at K-12 schools.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Large-scale simulation-based parametric analysis of an optimal precooling strategy for demand flexibility in a commercial office building

Achieving success with grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEBs) is closely tied to the utilization of flexible loads. A valuable strategy involves the implementation of precooling techniques before high-demand events, such as peak hours, by adjusting zone air temperature setpoints. This leads to a reduction in thermal loads and peak electricity demand during these times, as the building’s thermal mass stores and subsequently releases thermal energy. However, the effectiveness of the pre-cooling optimization is highly contingent on specific conditions such as building thermal properties, weather conditions, utility rate structure, HVAC equipment sizing, etc. Therefore, investigating the impacts of these condition-specific factors is crucial, especially when considering precooling strategies that utilize thermal mass in commercial buildings. In this paper, we first devised a novel heuristic control approach that incorporates parameterized optimal precooling thermostat schedules to enhance demand flexibility in a commercial office building. Subsequently, we conducted a thorough performance evaluation of this control strategy. Here, the optimal thermostat schedule was parameterized using three optimization variables: the precooling start time, the precooling end time, and the precooling temperature setpoint. Utilizing the DOE medium-sized office building as the virtual testbed, we showed that the parameterized schedule effectively approximates model predictive control and requires drastically reduced computational overhead. In addition, we investigated the impact of different influencing factors on the optimal precooling strategy. These factors include building thermal mass, outdoor air conditions, and energy price profiles. Using high-performance computing, we simulated a total of 225 scenarios, consisting of three levels of thermal mass, five typical outdoor air temperature profiles, and fifteen time-of-use price plans. The results demonstrate that optimal thermostat scheduling could save substantial energy cost in medium-sized office buildings with heavy thermal mass but with some energy penalty. Although the potential for cost savings is lower in buildings with low and medium thermal mass, the energy penalty remains consistent in all three thermal mass scenarios. The study also highlights the need to account for zone diversity and recognize that a one-size-fits-all-zone setpoint schedule may not be suitable for all zones and can lead to unnecessary energy wastage. Furthermore, the results highlight that while outdoor air conditions play a role in cost and energy performance, the cooling load exerts a more immediate and substantial influence on cost savings in precooling strategies. Although cost savings are comparable under certain conditions with the same cooling load, observed deviations in energy penalty indicate potential disparities in the efficiency of the HVAC system during the load-shifting process. In addition, the duration of peak pricing and the ratio between peak and off-peak times exhibit clear correlations with cost savings and energy consumption, aligning with intuitive expectations. These findings offer valuable insights for optimizing precooling strategies in office buildings.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Performance evaluation of underground thermal storage integrated dual-source heat pump systems

The increasing demand for electricity stresses the existing electric grids. Buildings consume 73% of all U.S. electricity and are responsible for 30% of U.S. greenhouse gas emissions. Integrating thermal energy storage (TES) in building heating/cooling systems, which consume considerable electricity, can mitigate the challenges to electric grids. Here, this study reports on a novel thermal energy storage device integrated heat pump system to reshape the building electricity demand profile while maintaining thermal comfort. The annual performance of the proposed system has been evaluated through a dynamic system simulation with high fidelity in the Modelica platform. The dynamic model of the novel hybrid component named ‘dual purpose underground thermal battery’ was developed and validated. It was then incorporated into the system model. Given a time-of-use tariff, a rule-based control strategy was designed to shift the electric demand and switch the heat pump source for a typical single-family house in different climate zones of the United States. The system performance of the new TES-integrated dual-source heat pump was compared with that of a conventional air-source heat pump system. The results indicate that the proposed system can reduce the annual HVAC electricity cost by up to 52% while saving 45.2% on electricity consumption. In the Northern areas, the annual peak load of the HVAC system can be reduced by 64.9%. However, this reduction is less in the Southern areas as the system’s higher efficiency in winter dominates the overall energy-saving potential.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Field evaluation of zone temperature response to control actions in cooling systems of small and medium-sized office buildings

The response of zone temperature to control actions in heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) systems, known as zone temperature response, has been a central focus of building control research owing to its crucial role in determining control performance. However, existing studies often overlook the representativeness of the buildings being studied, resulting in unclear generalizations. In addition, those studies tend to focus on a single aspect of the response. Furthermore, this paper provides the first comprehensive characterization of zone temperature response applicable to a clearly defined building sector—small and medium-sized office (SMO) buildings (<5000 m 2 ) in the US. Specifically, two representative SMO buildings, selected based on the US Department of Energy’s commercial prototype buildings, were studied. Field tests were conducted over a 2-month period during summer, and the collected data were analyzed with two key metrics—delay time and nonlinearity index—to quantify zone temperature response, capturing both short- and long-term patterns. Beyond this quantitative characterization, the analysis reveals that the HVAC system type, rather than factors like floor area or zone location, is the primary determinant of the zone temperature response. Drawing on the field test results, we recommend that building control strategies monitor zone temperatures at intervals shorter than 10 minutes, configure controls independently for VAV- and RTU-served zones, and implement nonlinear methods at the zone level—particularly for VAV zones—rather than across the entire building.

Building control↗
DOE OSTI2026

Surrogate model evaluation and building energy benchmarking for commercial buildings

Building energy consumption benchmarking involves challenges associated with various energy patterns for different building types; heating, ventilating, and air-conditioning (HVAC) system types; and climates. Given significant variation in energy use patterns, accurate prediction of long-term energy use using surrogate models remains challenging. Multiple linear regression (MLR) is commonly used for building energy benchmarking because of its simple structure; however, it lacks accuracy compared to other black-box models. Although many studies have compared surrogate models and offer guidance on model selection based on metrics, they do not provide detailed analysis on improving the surrogate model accuracy. In this paper, we implement a surrogate model using polynomial ridge regression (i.e., MLR with interaction terms combined with ridge regularization) for small office and retail strip mall buildings across six HVAC system types and all climate zones, for electricity and natural gas in baseline and proposed scenarios. A simulation workflow is developed using OpenStudio TM /EnergyPlus TM to generate simulation data using measures over a wide range of efficiency inputs. Enhancements based on statistical insights are used for improving the model accuracy using filters, input transformations, and change points. Surrogate models achieved average coefficient of variation of the root mean squared error (CVRMSE) values of 2.17, 1.06, 2.05, and 3.26 for proposed electricity, proposed natural gas, baseline electricity, and baseline natural gas, respectively, with enhancements reducing CVRMSE by an average of 14.9% across all combinations. We provide model interpretation via Shapley additive explanations to determine which input variables most influence energy consumption and provide supportive arguments for enhancements.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2026

Field testing and validation of a low-cost MPC for demand flexibility for grid-interactive K-12 schools

K-12 school buildings account for the highest energy consumption within the public sector. Implementing advanced HVAC controls in grid-interactive K-12 schools could bring substantial economic advantages and grid flexibility. Our previous study demonstrated that a low-cost model predictive control (MPC) solution, which coordinates multiple packaged units, can enable demand flexibility without major hardware upgrades. However, a significant gap remains between academic pilots and market-ready scalable solutions. This paper extends the previous single-site pilot to a multi-site demonstration involving three school campuses (95 total units) through a commercial technology transfer process. Addressing the challenge of verifying performance with sparse field data, we present a new statistical approach using Bayesian methods to estimate the MPC’s effect on peak demand. Unlike traditional methods, this approach robustly quantifies uncertainty in non-normal, limited datasets. The results confirm the solution’s replicability, achieving a 21.6–38.9% reduction in HVAC peak demand (10.8–22.1% at the site-level) with > 98% probability across diverse locations. Finally, we document critical barriers to scaling software-as-a-service (SaaS) solutions–such as API instability and diverse legacy systems–and offer practical strategies to accelerate the commercial adoption of grid-interactive efficient buildings.

Ham, Sang Woo↗
DOE OSTI2021

An assessment of power flexibility from commercial building cooling systems in the United States

Understanding varying characteristics and aggregate potential of power flexibility from different building types considering regional diversity is critically important to actively engaging building resources in future eco-friendly, low-cost, and sustainable power systems. This paper presents a comprehensive characteristics analysis and potential assessment of the power flexibility from heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads in commercial buildings in the U.S. using a simulation-based method. In this method, commercial buildings are first grouped by building types and climate regions. The U.S. Department of Energy Commercial Prototype Building Models are used to represent an average building in each group and are simulated to characterize corresponding power flexibility. Based on building survey data, the number of commercial buildings in each group is estimated and used to calculate aggregate power flexibility. It is found that HVAC loads in commercial buildings offer more flexibility for increasing power consumption than for decreasing it. The power consumption of commercial buildings in the U.S. can be increased by 46 GW and decreased by 40 GW on peak summer days. Among all commercial building types, standalone retail buildings provide the most absolute flexibility while the medium office buildings have the most flexibility as a percentage of the rated power consumption.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

A novel transient infrared imaging method for non-intrusive, low-cost, fast, and accurate air leakage detection in building envelopes

Air leakage through the building envelope in the U.S. accounts for about four quads of energy annually, costing approximately $40 billion per year. However, a high-fidelity and non-intrusive method to detect air leakage has not been demonstrated to date. Here, in this paper, we propose a novel non-intrusive and low-cost method called Transient Infrared (IR) Imaging (TIRI) that can rapidly and accurately identify air leakage locations and relative rates on building envelopes. When the interior and exterior temperatures are different, and a small internal pressure pulse is created by HVAC, the temperature at locations with air leakages will change rapidly, while the areas without a leakage do not change. Based on a heat transfer model, we have derived the temperature change as a function of time after the HVAC is turned on. By tracking the temperature change, which depends on leakage rate and size, we have obtained the air leakage map in the case studies. Using an exterior door as an example, we took transient IR images in different seasons and different times of the day, and successfully obtained the leakage map in all the scenarios. Successfully obtained the air leakage map even when the indoor-outdoor air temperature difference is as small as 2 °C. We have also realized a detection speed of 10s and demonstrated that this method also worked for windows, which have mirror-like IR reflections. Our TIRI method will accelerate the improvement of airtightness in buildings, save building energy, and help reduce greenhouse gas emissions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2024

Capacity contributions of Southern Oregon offshore wind to the Pacific Northwest and California

Variable renewable energy generation poses unique capacity challenges, which increasingly depend on weather events at varying timescales. Facilitated by transmission planning, geographic and technological diversity of the generation fleet may provide a mitigation to capacity shortfalls. In this work, offshore wind (OSW) energy is sited in the areas off the West Coast between Coos Bay, Oregon, and Crescent City, California. Three generation and transmission scenarios are modeled within the Western Interconnection: (i) 3.4 gigawatts (GW) of installed OSW capacity connected to Southern Oregon through a High Voltage Alternating Current (HVAC) Radial Topology in 2030; (ii) 12.9 GW of installed OSW capacity connected to Washington, Oregon, and California through a High Voltage Direct Current (HVDC) Radial Topology post-2030, and (iii) the same 12.9 GW connected to the same locations through a Multi-terminal DC (MTDC) Backbone Topology post-2030. Zonal dispatch simulations assuming coincident wind, solar, and hydropower production and loads over 18 meteorological years, accounting for temperature-dependent equipment derating and forced outages, serve as inputs to the Associated System Capacity Contribution (ASCC) methodology. The capacity credit is 33%, 25% and 34% for the 2030 HVAC Radial Topology, 2030+ HVDC Radial Topology, and 2030+ MTDC Backbone Topology, respectively. Transmission design is shown to mitigate the typical erosion of marginal capacity contribution as more OSW is developed, underscoring the opportunity for grid modernization while decarbonizing the generation mix.

17 WIND ENERGY↗