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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2003

Development of Probabilistic Life Prediction Methodologies and Testing Strategies for MEMS

This effort is to investigate probabilistic life prediction methodologies for MicroElectroMechanical Systems (MEMS) and to analyze designs that determine stochastic properties of MEMS. This includes completion of a literature survey regarding Weibull size effect in MEMS and strength testing techniques. Also of interest is the design of a proper test for the Weibull size effect in tensile specimens. The Weibull size effect is a consequence of a stochastic strength response predicted from the Weibull distribution. Confirming that MEMS strength is controlled by the Weibull distribution will enable the development of a probabilistic design methodology for MEMS - similar to the GRC developed CARES/Life program for bulk ceramics. Another potential item of interest is analysis and modeling of material interfaces for strength as well as developing a strategy to handle stress singularities at sharp corners, filets, and material interfaces. The ultimate objective of this effort is to further develop and verify the ability of the Ceramics Analysis and Reliability Evaluation of Structuredlife (CARES/Life) code to predict the time-dependent reliability of MEMS structures subjected to multiple transient loads. Along these lines work may also be performed on transient fatigue life prediction methodologies.

Jadaan, Osama M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Probabilistic Dynamic Buckling of Smart Composite Shells

A computational simulation method is presented to evaluate the deterministic and nondeterministic dynamic buckling of smart composite shells. The combined use of composite mechanics, finite element computer codes, and probabilistic analysis enable the effective assessment of the dynamic buckling load of smart composite shells. A universal plot is generated to estimate the dynamic buckling load of composite shells at various load rates and probabilities. The shell structure is also evaluated with smart fibers embedded in the plies right below the outer plies. The results show that, on the average, the use of smart fibers improved the shell buckling resistance by about 10 percent at different probabilities and delayed the buckling occurrence time. The probabilistic sensitivities results indicate that uncertainties in the fiber volume ratio and ply thickness have major effects on the buckling load while uncertainties in the electric field strength and smart material volume fraction have moderate effects. For the specific shell considered in this evaluation, the use of smart composite material is not recommended because the shell buckling resistance can be improved by simply re-arranging the orientation of the outer plies, as shown in the dynamic buckling analysis results presented in this report.

Abumeri, Galib H.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Assessment of a CMC Turbine Vane

In order to demonstrate the advanced CMC technology under development within the Ultra Efficient Engine Technology (UEET) program, it has been planned to fabricate, test and analyze an all CMC turbine vane made of a SiC/SiC composite material. The objective was to utilize a 5-II Satin Weave SiC/CVI SiC/ and MI SiC matrix material that was developed in-house under the Enabling Propulsion Materials (EPM) program, to design and fabricate a stator vane that can endure successfully 1000 hours of engine service conditions operation. The design requirements for the vane are to be able to withstand a maximum of 2400 F within the substrate and the hot surface temperature of 2700 F with the aid of an in-house developed Environmental/Thermal Barrier Coating (EBC/TBC) system. The vane will be tested in a High Pressure Burner Rig at NASA Glenn Research Center facility. This rig is capable of simulating the engine service environment. The present paper focuses on a probabilistic assessment of the vane. The material stress/strain relationship shows a bilinear behavior with a distinct knee corresponding to what is often termed as first matrix cracking strength. This is a critical life limiting consideration for these materials. The vane is therefore designed such that the maximum stresses are within this limit so that the structure is never subjected to loads beyond the first matrix cracking strength. Any violation of this design requirement is considered as failure. Probabilistic analysis is performed in order to determine the probability of failure based on this assumption. In the analysis, material properties, strength, and pressures are considered random variables. The variations in properties and strength are based on the actual experimental data generated in house. The mean values for the pressures on the upper surface and the lower surface are known but their distributions are unknown. In the present analysis the pressures are considered normally distributed with a nominal variation. Temperature profile on the vane is obtained by performing a CFD analysis and is assumed to be deterministic.

Murthy, Pappu L. N.↗
NASA NTRS1993

A Probabilistic Model for Simulating Magnetoacoustic Emission Responses in Ferromagnets

Magnetoacoustic emission (MAE) is a phenomenon where acoustic noise is generated due to the motion of non-180 magnetic domain walls in a ferromagnet with non-zero magnetostrictive constants. MAE has been studied extensively for many years and has even been applied as an NDE tool for characterizing the heat treatment of high-yield low carbon steels. A complete theory which fully accounts for the magnetoacoustic response, however, has not yet emerged. The motion of the domain walls appears to be a totally random process, however, it does exhibit features of regularity which have been identified by studying phenomena such as 1/f flicker noise and self-organized criticality (SOC). In this paper, a probabilistic model incorporating the effects of SOC has been developed to help explain the MAE response. The model uses many simplifying assumptions yet yields good qualitative agreement with observed experimental results and also provides some insight into the possible underlying mechanisms responsible for MAE. We begin by providing a brief overview of magnetoacoustic emission and the experimental set-up used to obtain the MAE signal. We then describe a pseudo-probabilistic model used to predict the MAE response and give an example of the predicted result. Finally, the model is modified to account for SOC and the new predictions are shown and compared with experiment.

Namkung, M.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Unsteady Probabilistic Analysis of a Gas Turbine System

In this work, we have considered an annular cascade configuration subjected to unsteady inflow conditions. The unsteady response calculation has been implemented into the time marching CFD code, MSUTURBO. The computed steady state results for the pressure distribution demonstrated good agreement with experimental data. We have computed results for the amplitudes of the unsteady pressure over the blade surfaces. With the increase in gas turbine engine structural complexity and performance over the past 50 years, structural engineers have created an array of safety nets to ensure against component failures in turbine engines. In order to reduce what is now considered to be excessive conservatism and yet maintain the same adequate margins of safety, there is a pressing need to explore methods of incorporating probabilistic design procedures into engine development. Probabilistic methods combine and prioritize the statistical distributions of each design variable, generate an interactive distribution and offer the designer a quantified relationship between robustness, endurance and performance. The designer can therefore iterate between weight reduction, life increase, engine size reduction, speed increase etc.

Brown, Marilyn↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Physics-Based Risk Tools Used to Analyze the International Space Station Electrical Power System Output

This paper describes the methods employed to apply probabilistic modeling techniques to the International Space Station (ISS) power system. These techniques were used to quantify the probabilistic variation in the power output, also called the response variable, due to variations (uncertainties) associated with knowledge of the influencing factors called the random variables. These uncertainties can be due to unknown environmental conditions, variation in the performance of electrical power system components or sensor tolerances. Uncertainties in these variables, cause corresponding variations in the power output, but the magnitude of that effect varies with the ISS operating conditions, e.g. whether or not the solar panels are actively tracking the sun. Therefore, it is important to quantify the influence of these uncertainties on the power output for optimizing the power available for experiments.

Patel, Bhogila M.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Robust Control Design for Systems With Probabilistic Uncertainty

This paper presents a reliability- and robustness-based formulation for robust control synthesis for systems with probabilistic uncertainty. In a reliability-based formulation, the probability of violating design requirements prescribed by inequality constraints is minimized. In a robustness-based formulation, a metric which measures the tendency of a random variable/process to cluster close to a target scalar/function is minimized. A multi-objective optimization procedure, which combines stability and performance requirements in time and frequency domains, is used to search for robustly optimal compensators. Some of the fundamental differences between the proposed strategy and conventional robust control methods are: (i) unnecessary conservatism is eliminated since there is not need for convex supports, (ii) the most likely plants are favored during synthesis allowing for probabilistic robust optimality, (iii) the tradeoff between robust stability and robust performance can be explored numerically, (iv) the uncertainty set is closely related to parameters with clear physical meaning, and (v) compensators with improved robust characteristics for a given control structure can be synthesized.

Crespo, Luis G.↗
NASA NTRS1997

Probabilistic Thermomechanical Fatigue of Polymer Matrix Composites

Traditional computational approaches for predicting the life and long-term behavior of materials rely on empirical data and are neither generic nor unique in nature. Also, those approaches are not easy to implement in a design procedure in an effective, integrated manner. The focus of ongoing research at the NASA Lewis Research Center has been to develop advanced integrated computational methods and related computer codes for a complete reliability-based assessment of composite structures. These methods - which account for uncertainties in all the constituent properties, fabrication process variables, and loads to predict probabilistic micromechanics, ply, laminate, and structural responses - have already been implemented in the Integrated Probabilistic Assessment of Composite Structures (IPACS) computer code. The main objective of this evaluation is to illustrate the effectiveness of the methodology to predict the long-term behavior of composites under combined mechanical and thermal cyclic loading conditions.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Probabilistic Analysis of Impact of Wake Vortices on Closely-Spaced Parallel Approaches

One of the primary constraints on the capacity of the nation's air transportation system is the landing capacity of its largest airports. Many airports with closely spaced parallel runways suffer a severe runway acceptance rate when the weather conditions do not allow full utilization of these parallel runways. The present requirement for simultaneous independent landings in Instrument Meteorological Conditions, IMC, is at least 4300 feet of lateral runway spacing (as close as 3000 feet for runways with a Precision Runway Monitor). Operations in Visual Meteorological Conditions, VMC, to Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches only require a lateral runway spacing greater than 750 feet. A study by Hardy and Lewis integrated and extended earlier studies and concepts in lateral traffic separation, longitudinal station keeping, wake prediction, wake display, and the concepts of R N P into a preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches in IMC. This system allows IMC airport acceptance rates to approach those for VMC. The system concept that was developed, presented traffic and wake information on the NAVigation Display, NAV, and developed operational procedures for a mix of conventional and Runway Independent Aircraft with different approach speeds to Closely Spaced Parallel Runways. This paper first describes some improvements made on the technology needed to better predict and formulate a probabilistic representation for the time-dependent motion and spreading of the hazardous region associated with the lift-generated vortex wakes of preceding aircraft. In this way, the time at which the vortex wakes of leading aircraft intrude into the airspace of adjacent flight-corridor/runway combinations can be more reliably predicted. Such a prediction is needed because it determines restraints to be placed on in-trail separation distances; or, the allowable time intervals between aircraft executing nearly simultaneous landings or takeoffs on very closely-spaced runways. Improved estimates of wake spreading are achieved by inclusion of representations in the equations for wake spreading due to ambient turbulence and due to the long-wave instability of a vortex pair. Wake motion and spreading due to the time-averaged wind and its variations with time, are retained. The more detailed representation of wake spreading presented here permits the development of probabilistically-based uncertainty estimates for wake spreading. Measurements needed within actual aircraft wake vortices to validate and support this analysis are also described. The second part of the paper uses the improvements in the accuracy of the location of wake vortices to extend the preliminary system concept for Closely Spaced Parallel Approaches described earlier with more robust operational procedures. Additionally, improvements in longitudinal station keeping, wake display, and risk assessment methodologies are incorporated and described.

Hardy, Gordon H.↗
NASA NTRS2002

CARES/Life Used for Probabilistic Characterization of MEMS Pressure Sensor Membranes

Microelectromechanical systems (MEMS) devices are typically made from brittle materials such as silicon using traditional semiconductor manufacturing techniques. They can be etched (or micromachined) from larger structures or can be built up with material deposition processes. Maintaining dimensional control and consistent mechanical properties is considerably more difficult for MEMS because feature size is on the micrometer scale. Therefore, the application of probabilistic design methodology becomes necessary for MEMS. This was demonstrated at the NASA Glenn Research Center and Case Western Reserve University in an investigation that used the NASA-developed CARES/Life brittle material design program to study the probabilistic fracture strength behavior of single-crystal SiC, polycrystalline SiC, and amorphous Si3N4 pressurized 1-mm-square thin-film diaphragms. These materials are of interest because of their superior high-temperature characteristics, which are desirable for harsh environment applications such as turbine engine and rocket propulsion system hot sections.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2004

Probabilistic Residual Strength Model Developed for Life Prediction of Ceramic Matrix Composites

For the next generation of reusable launch vehicles, NASA is investigating introducing ceramic matrix composites (CMCs) in place of current superalloys for structural propulsion applications (e.g., nozzles, vanes, combustors, and heat exchangers). The higher use temperatures of CMCs will reduce vehicle weight by eliminating and/or reducing cooling system requirements. The increased strength-to-weight ratio of CMCs relative to superalloys further enhances their weight savings potential. However, in order to provide safe designs for components made of these new materials, a comprehensive life prediction methodology for CMC structures needs to be developed. A robust methodology for lifing composite structures has yet to be adopted by the engineering community. Current industry design practice continues to utilize deterministic empirically based models borrowed from metals design for predicting material life capabilities. The deterministic nature of these models inadequately addresses the stochastic character of brittle composites, and their empirical reliance makes predictions beyond the experimental test conditions a risky extrapolation. A team of engineers at the NASA Glenn Research Center has been developing a new life prediction engineering model. The Probabilistic Residual Strength (PRS) model uses the residual strength of the composite as its damage metric. Expected life and material strength are both considered probabilistically to account for the observed stochastic material response. Extensive experimental testing has been carried out on C/SiC (a candidate aerospace CMC material system) in a controlled 1000 ppm O2/argon environment at elevated temperatures of 800 and 1200 C. The test matrix was established to allow observation of the material behavior, characterization of the model, and validation of the model's predictive capabilities. Sample results of the validation study are illustrated in the graphs.

Thomas, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Fabrication and Probabilistic Fracture Strength Prediction of High-Aspect-Ratio Single Crystal Silicon Carbide Microspecimens With Stress Concentration

Single crystal silicon carbide micro-sized tensile specimens were fabricated with deep reactive ion etching (DRIE) in order to investigate the effect of stress concentration on the room-temperature fracture strength. The fracture strength was defined as the level of stress at the highest stressed location in the structure at the instant of specimen rupture. Specimens with an elliptical hole, a circular hole, and without a hole (and hence with no stress concentration) were made. The average fracture strength of specimens with a higher stress concentration was larger than the average fracture strength of specimens with a lower stress concentration. Average strength of elliptical-hole, circular-hole, and without-hole specimens was 1.53, 1.26, and 0.66 GPa, respectively. Significant scatter in strength was observed with the Weibull modulus ranging between 2 and 6. No fractographic examination was performed but it was assumed that the strength controlling flaws originated from etching grooves along the specimen side-walls. The increase of observed fracture strength with increasing stress concentration was compared to predictions made with the Weibull stress-integral formulation by using the NASA CARES/Life code. In the analysis isotropic material and fracture behavior was assumed - hence it was not a completely rigorous analysis. However, even with these assumptions good correlation was achieved for the circular-hole specimen data when using the specimen data without stress concentration as a baseline. Strength was over predicted for the elliptical-hole specimen data. Significant specimen-to-specimen dimensional variation existed in the elliptical-hole specimens due to variations in the nickel mask used in the etching. To simulate the additional effect of the dimensional variability on the probabilistic strength response for the single crystal specimens the ANSYS Probabilistic Design System (PDS) was used with CARES/Life.

Nemeth, Noel N.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA): A Practical and Cost Effective Approach

The Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter (LRO) is the first mission of the Robotic Lunar Exploration Program (RLEP), a space exploration venture to the Moon, Mars and beyond. The LRO mission includes spacecraft developed by NASA Goddard Space Flight Center (GSFC) and seven instruments built by GSFC, Russia, and contractors across the nation. LRO is defined as a measurement mission, not a science mission. It emphasizes the overall objectives of obtaining data to facilitate returning mankind safely to the Moon in preparation for an eventual manned mission to Mars. As the first mission in response to the President's commitment of the journey of exploring the solar system and beyond: returning to the Moon in the next decade, then venturing further into the solar system, ultimately sending humans to Mars and beyond, LRO has high-visibility to the public but limited resources and a tight schedule. This paper demonstrates how NASA's Lunar Reconnaissance Orbiter Mission project office incorporated reliability analyses in assessing risks and performing design tradeoffs to ensure mission success. Risk assessment is performed using NASA Procedural Requirements (NPR) 8705.5 - Probabilistic Risk Assessment (PRA) Procedures for NASA Programs and Projects to formulate probabilistic risk assessment (PRA). As required, a limited scope PRA is being performed for the LRO project. The PRA is used to optimize the mission design within mandated budget, manpower, and schedule constraints. The technique that LRO project office uses to perform PRA relies on the application of a component failure database to quantify the potential mission success risks. To ensure mission success in an efficient manner, low cost and tight schedule, the traditional reliability analyses, such as reliability predictions, Failure Modes and Effects Analysis (FMEA), and Fault Tree Analysis (FTA), are used to perform PRA for the large system of LRO with more than 14,000 piece parts and over 120 purchased or contractor built components.

Lee, Lydia L.↗
NASA NTRS1996

Probabilistic Fatigue Life Analysis of High Density Electronics Packaging

The fatigue of thin film metal interconnections in high density electronics packaging subjected to thermal cycling has been evaluated using a probabilistic fracture mechanics methodology. This probabilistic methodology includes characterization of thin film stress using an experimentally calibrated finite element model and simulation of flaw growth in the thin films using a stochastic crack growth model.

thermal cycling fatigue of thin film metal interco↗
NASA NTRS2006

Exploration Health Risks: Probabilistic Risk Assessment

Maintenance of human health on long-duration exploration missions is a primary challenge to mission designers. Indeed, human health risks are currently the largest risk contributors to the risks of evacuation or loss of the crew on long-duration International Space Station missions. We describe a quantitative assessment of the relative probabilities of occurrence of the individual risks to human safety and efficiency during space flight to augment qualitative assessments used in this field to date. Quantitative probabilistic risk assessments will allow program managers to focus resources on those human health risks most likely to occur with undesirable consequences. Truly quantitative assessments are common, even expected, in the engineering and actuarial spheres, but that capability is just emerging in some arenas of life sciences research, such as identifying and minimize the hazards to astronauts during future space exploration missions. Our expectation is that these results can be used to inform NASA mission design trade studies in the near future with the objective of preventing the higher among the human health risks. We identify and discuss statistical techniques to provide this risk quantification based on relevant sets of astronaut biomedical data from short and long duration space flights as well as relevant analog populations. We outline critical assumptions made in the calculations and discuss the rationale for these. Our efforts to date have focussed on quantifying the probabilities of medical risks that are qualitatively perceived as relatively high risks of radiation sickness, cardiac dysrhythmias, medically significant renal stone formation due to increased calcium mobilization, decompression sickness as a result of EVA (extravehicular activity), and bone fracture due to loss of bone mineral density. We present these quantitative probabilities in order-of-magnitude comparison format so that relative risk can be gauged. We address the effects of conservative and nonconservative assumptions on the probability results. We discuss the methods necessary to assess mission risks once exploration mission scenarios are characterized. Preliminary efforts have produced results that are commensurate with earlier qualitative estimates of risk probabilities in this and other operational contexts, indicating that our approach may be usefully applied in support of the development of human health and performance standards for long-duration space exploration missions. This approach will also enable mission-specific probabilistic risk assessments for space exploration missions.

Rhatigan, Jennifer↗
NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Dynamic Buckling of Smart Composite Shells

A computational simulation method is presented to evaluate the deterministic and nondeterministic dynamic buckling of smart composite shells. The combined use of intraply hybrid composite mechanics, finite element computer codes, and probabilistic analysis enable the effective assessment of the dynamic buckling load of smart composite shells. A universal plot is generated to estimate the dynamic buckling load of composite shells at various load rates and probabilities. The shell structure is also evaluated with smart fibers embedded in the plies right next to the outer plies. The results show that, on the average, the use of smart fibers improved the shell buckling resistance by about 10% at different probabilities and delayed the buckling occurrence time. The probabilistic sensitivities results indicate that uncertainties in the fiber volume ratio and ply thickness have major effects on the buckling load while uncertainties in the electric field strength and smart material volume fraction have moderate effects. For the specific shell considered in this evaluation, the use of smart composite material is not recommended because the shell buckling resistance can be improved by simply re-arranging the orientation of the outer plies, as shown in the dynamic buckling analysis results presented in this report.

Chamis, Christos C.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Probabilistic Analysis of Space Shuttle Body Flap Actuator Ball Bearings

A probabilistic analysis, using the 2-parameter Weibull-Johnson method, was performed on experimental life test data from space shuttle actuator bearings. Experiments were performed on a test rig under simulated conditions to determine the life and failure mechanism of the grease lubricated bearings that support the input shaft of the space shuttle body flap actuators. The failure mechanism was wear that can cause loss of bearing preload. These tests established life and reliability data for both shuttle flight and ground operation. Test data were used to estimate the failure rate and reliability as a function of the number of shuttle missions flown. The Weibull analysis of the test data for a 2-bearing shaft assembly in each body flap actuator established a reliability level of 99.6 percent for a life of 12 missions. A probabilistic system analysis for four shuttles, each of which has four actuators, predicts a single bearing failure in one actuator of one shuttle after 22 missions (a total of 88 missions for a 4-shuttle fleet). This prediction is comparable with actual shuttle flight history in which a single actuator bearing was found to have failed by wear at 20 missions.

Oswald, Fred B.↗
NASA NTRS2007

Development of Probabilistic Structural Analysis Integrated with Manufacturing Processes

An effort has been initiated to integrate manufacturing process simulations with probabilistic structural analyses in order to capture the important impacts of manufacturing uncertainties on component stress levels and life. Two physics-based manufacturing process models (one for powdered metal forging and the other for annular deformation resistance welding) have been linked to the NESSUS structural analysis code. This paper describes the methodology developed to perform this integration including several examples. Although this effort is still underway, particularly for full integration of a probabilistic analysis, the progress to date has been encouraging and a software interface that implements the methodology has been developed. The purpose of this paper is to report this preliminary development.

Pai, Shantaram S.↗