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DOE OSTI2023

The need to operationalize climate modelling

We report climate models have changed the world. Starting out as simple globally averaged representations of vertical energy exchanges in the atmosphere in the 1950s, today’s climate models are highly complex numerical representations of the Earth system based on the fundamental laws of physics. Their development has largely been driven by scientific curiosity, with the many approximate virtual representations of Earth available today enabling the interrogation of the past and present climate system and the development of an understanding of the influence of human activity on its future. It is this understanding that underpins the climate mitigation targets enshrined in the Paris Agreement to limit global mean temperature increases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Life cycle greenhouse gas emissions of different CO 2 supply options for an algal biorefinery

This paper characterizes the greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions from the provision of CO 2 for twelve hours of the day from a range of sources operating on a twenty-four-hour basis. Twelve CO 2 supply cases spanning from fossil fuel power plant stack gases to direct air capture (DAC) systems are modeled. The results are compared in a life cycle assessment (LCA) framework. The CO 2 supply from the combustion or gasification of biomass has GHG emissions of –1.62 gCO 2 eq./g CO 2 delivered and is the case with the lowest carbon footprint for supplied CO2. The emissions for all the CO 2 supply cases were found to be negative, either because of capturing more CO 2 from the atmosphere than is released from the CO 2 production process, or because of production of excess electricity that is exported to the grid (replacing emissions from grid electricity). A purpose-built Natural Gas Combined Cycle (NGCC) power plant CO 2 source has the highest GHG emissions of -0.40 gCO 2 eq./gCO 2 delivered of the cases considered because of nighttime emissions and natural gas supply chain losses. The impact of a diurnal cycle can be mitigated by using capture and refrigeration systems as part of the CO 2 management system. The results are sensitive to the GHG emissions of the grid electricity, which is imported or exported in different cases. The results provide a benchmark for the comparison of different CO 2 supply options for the establishment of a sustainable algal biorefinery.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Aerosol-Cloud Interactions From Aviation Soot Emissions

Current models estimate global aviation contributes approximately 5% to the total anthropogenic climate forcing, with aerosol-cloud interactions having the greatest effect. However, radiative forcing estimates from aviation aerosol-cloud interactions remain undetermined. There is an expected significant increase in aircraft emissions with aviation demand expected to rise by over 4% per year. Soot may play an important role in the ice nucleation of aircraft-induced cirrus formation due to a high emission rate, but the ice nucleating properties are poorly constrained. Understanding the microphysical processes leading to atmospheric ice crystal formation is crucial for the reliable parameterization of aerosol-cloud interactions in climate models due to their impact on precipitation and cloud radiative properties. Ice nucleation of aircraft-emitted soot is potentially affected by particle morphology with condensation of supercooled water occurring in pores followed by ice nucleation. However, soot has heterogeneous properties and undergoes atmospheric aging and oxidation that could change surface properties and contribute to complex ice nucleation processes. Further, this review synthesizes current knowledge of ice nucleation catalyzed by aviation in the cirrus regime and its effects on global radiative forcing. Further research is required to determine the ice nucleation and microphysical processes of cirrus cloud formation from aviation emissions in both controlled laboratory and field investigations to inform models for more accurate climate predictions and to provide efficient mitigation strategies.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

40th Eastern Regional Photosynthesis Conference

Photosynthesis has shaped global biochemistry and geochemistry in its production of almost all atmospheric oxygen, and almost every electron that supports the processes of life on Earth was extracted from water by the light-dependent reactions, many of which were then used to fix carbon in the dark reactions. To humans, that fixed carbon is the originator of all fossil fuels and a critical step in conversion of solar photons to human-usable energy. The Eastern Regional Photosynthesis Conference (ERPC) serves as a forum for advancement of science in this field. As a regional-level conference, it specializes in providing developmental opportunities for early-career researchers from undergraduates to pre-tenure professors, as well as broadening the field in terms of participating scholars and research approaches to produce new interdisciplinary collaborations. Funding from the Department of Energy is used to mitigate registration and attendance costs for junior (non-PI) researchers. The ERPC is one of the three regional conferences in the field of photosynthesis research in the United States, alongside the Western Photosynthesis Conference (currently in California) and the Midwestern Photosynthesis Conference (Turkey Run, Indiana). A longstanding incubator for scientific discourse, discovery, and collaborations, this conference has spawned many collaborations which led to Department of Energy-funded projects and brought two full generations of scientists into the field. In 2023 the landmark 40th such conference was held at the Woods Hole Marine Biological Laboratory in Massachusetts. The conference was held April 14th-16th, 2023. The majority of the total attendees are traditionally undergraduates, graduate students, and postdoctoral researchers, whose scientific development greatly benefits from conferences like these. Almost all talks besides the ones given by invited speakers were given by young scientists who benefited from this award. Many posters presented at this conference were also the work of junior scientists. This conference is many young scientists' first exposure to the photosynthesis research community and its primary goal is to provide a positive atmosphere for those attendees, as exemplified by the three poster sessions and dedicated interactions between senior and junior scientists. Additionally, this was the first year of a successful equitable outreach and speaker recruitment plan to provide fair representation at the conference in line with Department of Energy policies and mission. The central focus of the ERPC is the understanding of energy flow from photons to usable chemical products in both natural and artificial photosynthesis. We support the DOE-BES aim of understanding of the biochemical/biophysical processes of photosynthesis to inform new technology development and field applications. This year’s theme, “Photosynthesis Across Scales,” reflected the scope of work being done from the individual exciton to the crop scale. This research encompasses applied biology, chemistry, physics, and materials engineering. The aim of this conference is to present new discoveries, techniques, and questions which can be sourced from any of these disciplines and provide an audience which is broadly qualified to use or respond to these developments.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

A Perspective on the Impact of Group Delay Dispersion in Future Terahertz Wireless Systems

This article discusses the challenges and opportunities of managing group delay dispersion (GDD), and its relation to the performance standards of future sixth-generation (6G) wireless communication systems utilizing terahertz frequency waves. The unique susceptibilities of 6G systems to GDD are described, along with a quantitative description of the sources of GDD, including multipath, rough surface scattering, intelligent reflecting surfaces, and propagation through the atmosphere. An experimental case-study is presented that confirms previous models quantifying the impact of atmospheric GDD. Several GDD manipulation strategies are presented, illustrating their hindered effectiveness in the 6G context. Conversely, some benefits of leveraging GDD to enhance 6G systems, such as improved security and simplified hardware, are also discussed. Finally, a perspective on using photonic GDD control devices is provided, revealing quantitative benefits that may unburden existing equalization schemes. Here, the article argues that GDD will uniquely and significantly impact some 6G systems, but that its careful consideration along with new mitigation strategies, including photonic devices, will help optimize system performance. The conclusion provides a perspective to guide future research in this area.

Strecker, Karl↗

DOE OSTI2025

Exploring the Nature of Neutrinos with the Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE)

The Deep Underground Neutrino Experiment (DUNE) is a next-generation experimental program designed to study the behaviour of neutrino oscillation. DUNE will utilize a neutrino beam originating at Fermilab, near Chicago, and will leverage a detector at Fermilab (Near Detector) and a detector 1300 km away in South Dakota (Far Detector), south of Saskatchewan. In the first phase of DUNE, its Far Detector will comprise of two 10,000 ton (fiducial) liquid argon (LAr) time-projection chamber (TPC) modules – powerful tracking calorimeter detectors – placed nearly a mile underground. With this large, sensitive, underground detector, DUNE aims to collect a high statistics and pure sample of neutrinos at the Far Detector. This setup also offers the potential to study non-beam physical processes via e.g. neutrinos produced in the atmosphere, supernova neutrino bursts, and/or solar neutrinos, etc. A second phase will aim to add more detector mass and expand the program. The Near Detector will consist of a LAr TPC module as well: critical to constraining systematic uncertainties in the oscillation analysis. However, this LAr TPC will have a novel design using a pixel-based readout instead of the traditional wire-based readout. This and the segmentation of the LAr TPC into multiple units are crucial in mitigating the high multiplicity of neutrino interactions expected in any readout window given its proximity to the beam. The Near Detector will feature additional components and capability beyond the LAr TPC, allowing one to deeply characterize the neutrino flux. Due to the complexity of this experimental program, several smaller-scale prototype detectors have been operating to test, validate, and improve both the technical designs and software for processing and analyzing events. By operating in charged particle test beams or neutrino beams, several of the prototypes are also capable of producing valuable results. Canadian institutions are involved in the realization of the DUNE through efforts with both the Near and Far Detectors and prototypes. DUNE is anticipated to begin operating near the end of this decade/the beginning of the next. This talk will focus on the overall DUNE program, for example its ultimate plans, status, and the efforts with prototypes.

Howard, Bruce [York U., Canada; Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2025

Dry and warm conditions in Australia exacerbated by aerosol reduction in China

A substantial decline in anthropogenic aerosols in China has been observed since the initiation of clean air actions in 2013. This study reveals a linkage between aerosol reductions in China and drier and warmer conditions in Australia. Aerosol decline in China trigger alterations in temperature and pressure gradients between the two hemispheres, leading to intensified outflow from Asia towards the South Indian Ocean, strengthening the Southern Indian Subtropical High and its related Southern Trade Winds. Consequently, this atmospheric pattern results in a moisture divergence over Australia. The reduction in surface moisture further results in more surface energy being converted into sensible heat instead of evaporating as latent heat, warming the near-surface air. The intensified dry and warm climate conditions further cause the increase in wildfire risks during fire seasons in Australia. Our study illuminates the potential impact of distant aerosols on precipitation and temperature variations in Australia, offering valuable insights for drought and wildfire risk mitigation in Australia.

aerosol-cloud interaction↗

DOE OSTI2025

Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration: Phase III (Final Scientific/Technical Report)

The Southwest Regional Partnership on Carbon Sequestration (SWP) is one of 7 regional partnerships formed in 2003 under the U.S. Department of Energy’s (DOE) Regional Carbon Sequestration Partnerships (RCSPs) initiative. The overall purpose of the initiative was to help determine and implement the technology, infrastructure, and regulations most appropriate to promote carbon storage in different regions of the country. Covering Arizona, Colorado, New Mexico, Oklahoma, Utah, and parts of Texas, Wyoming, and Kansas, the SWP evaluated regional carbon storage and utilization potential and focused on technologies and sites that could complement the region’s strong position in energy production. The project progressed through three phases: • Phase I (2003–2005): Characterized regional geologic formations and CO 2 sources, assessed sequestration potential, and identified pilot test sites. • Phase II (2005–2013): Conducted small-scale field tests to validate sequestration methods, including geologic and terrestrial projects. • Phase III (2008–2022): Demonstrated large-scale CO 2 injection at a commercial oil field to test monitoring, verification, and long-term storage strategies. This report covers Phase III. The final project site, the Farnsworth Unit (FWU) in Texas, provided real-world testing of reservoir characterization, monitoring, and risk evaluation tools and processes that could be used in any commercial scale carbon capture, utilization, and storage (CCUS) project. Extensive data collection and analysis helped refine best practices for reservoir characterization, injection monitoring, and storage verification. The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Key lessons learned include the importance of robust data management, strategic site selection, regulatory navigation, and effective industry collaboration. The project’s findings will inform ongoing and future carbon storage initiatives. Task 1 (Regional Characterization) • The SWP continued to participate in national outreach efforts and NATCARB. • The SWP evaluated multiple potential sites before selecting the FWU as the primary field test location. Task 2 (Public Outreach and Education) • The SWP contributed to national databases, DOE best practice manuals, and regional geological assessments to support future sequestration efforts. Task 3 (Permitting and Regulatory Compliance) • The SWP ensured compliance with federal and state regulations, including National Environmental Policy Act (NEPA) requirements. • The SWP obtained all necessary permits for drilling, injection, and monitoring activities. Task 4 (Site Characterization and Planning) • The SWP developed work plans for four key activities: characterization, simulation, monitoring and verification, and risk evaluation. • The SWP collected and synthesized legacy data from multiple sources to build initial static geological models and dynamic reservoir models demonstrating project feasibility. • The SWP conducted an initial risk evaluation and developed mitigation plans. Task 5 (Field Operations and Data Collection) • The SWP drilled, logged, and cored three characterization wells to gather critical subsurface data. • The SWP conducted multiple geophysical surveys, including 3D seismic, crosswell seismic, and vertical seismic profiling, to improve reservoir characterization. Task 6 (Monitoring and Verification) • The SWP performed extensive geological characterization using data from characterization wells and seismic surveys. • The SWP established a surface monitoring network to track CO 2 flux in soil gas, groundwater chemistry, and near-surface atmospheric CO 2 levels. • The SWP built and refined reservoir models to study the effects of relative permeability on simulation behavior and improve calibration with experimental data. Task 7 (Risk Assessment and Model Refinement) • The SWP conducted multiple studies to evaluate reservoir integrity, predict CO 2 plume behavior and improve predictive modeling capabilities. • The SWP refined geological models and used them to enhance the accuracy of simulation models. • The SWP continued quantitative risk assessment of top-ranked risks and strengthened the link between qualitative and quantitative risk methodologies.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2021

Surface Treatment Strategies for Mitigating Gas Hydrate & Asphaltene Formation, Growth, and Deposition in Flowloops

Abstract Numerous solids including gas hydrates, waxes, and asphaltenes have the potential to form in the production lines of gas and oil fields. This creates a highly non-ideal scenario as the accumulation of said species leads to flow assurance issues, especially with long-term processes like deposition. Since an ever-increasing amount of material is deposited in place at the pipe surface, production stoppage or active mitigation efforts become inevitable. The latter production issues result in increased safety risks and operational expenditures. Therefore, a cost-effective, passive deposition mitigation technology, such as a pipeline coating or surface treatment is especially appealing. The ability to address multiple pipeline flow assurance issues simultaneously without actively disrupting production would represent a dramatic step forward in this area. This study is part of a long-term ongoing effort that evaluates the performance and application of an omniphobic surface treatment for solids deposition prevention in industrially relevant systems. In particular, this specific work concentrates on the efficacy and robustness of the treatment under fully flowing conditions. The apparatuses utilized for this include two flowloops: a lab-scale, high-pressure flowloop for gas hydrate and surface treatment durability studies, and a bench-scale, atmospheric pressure loop for crude oil and asphaltene experiments. Film growth in high-pressure flowloop tests corroborated previous reports of delayed gas hydrate nucleation observed in rocking cells. Without the aid of the memory effect, treated oil-dominated experiments never experienced hydrate formation, spending upwards of a week in the hydrate stability zone (at the subcooled/fluid test conditions). Subsequent tests which utilized the memory effect then revealed that the hydrate formation rate reduced in the presence of the surface treatment compared to a bare stainless-steel surface. This testing was part of a larger set of trials conducted in the flowloop, which lasted about one year. The surface treatment durability under flowing conditions was evaluated during this time. Even after experiencing ∼4000 operating hours and 2 full pressure cycles, no evidence of delamination or damage was detected. Finally, as part of an extension to previous work, corroded surface asphaltene deposition experiments were performed in a bench-top flowloop. Treated experiments displayed an order of magnitude reduction in both total oil (all fractions of crude oil) and asphaltene fraction deposited.

03 NATURAL GAS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Green buffers near industrial plants, examples in Jefferson County TX

Green buffers between industrial plants and residential areas have multiple purposes in mitigating air pollution and protecting the environment. This study focuses on providing information on examples of green space development by industries near residential areas in Jefferson County, Texas. One represents a full buffer where residences were totally removed, another is a partial buffer where some residences were removed in a neighborhood and the third represents vegetation of a formerly industrial facility. Additional estimates on benefits of buffer spaces with respect to a pollutant plume are also considered. The study used geospatial and property data from 1966 to 2020. The transition from a residential area to a full or partial buffers highlights possible mitigation of air pollution impacts while serving additional functions, such as boosting stormwater infiltration and improving the aesthetic attractiveness of the area. The transformation from oil tanks to forested space may display the potential for environmental remediation, but not all spaces are suitable for fully forested buffers, as safety and other limitations should be considered. With the analysis of the classic Plume Equation insights can be provided regarding the possible impact of green buffers on ground-level pollutant concentrations. The calculations for atmospheric stability classes A-F and for various stack heights provide an understanding of how different conditions may affect the pollutant concentrations. The presence of a green buffer can play a crucial role in controlling ground-level pollution concentrations and reduce a community’s perception of risk.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

On the Viability of Video Imaging in Leak Rate Quantification: A Theoretical Error Analysis

Optical gas imaging through multispectral cameras is a promising technique for mitigation of methane emissions through localization and quantification of emissions sources. While more advanced cameras developed in recent years have led to lower uncertainties in measuring gas concentrations, a systematic analysis of the uncertainties associated with leak rate estimation have been overlooked. We present a systematic categorization of the involved uncertainties with a focus on a theoretical analysis of projection uncertainties that are inherent to this technique. The projection uncertainties are then quantified using Large Eddy Simulation experiments of a point source release into the atmosphere. Our results show that while projection uncertainties are typically about 5% of the emission rate, low acquisition times and observation of the gas plume at small distances from the emission source (<10 m) can amount to errors of about 20%. Further, we found that acquisition times on the order of tens of seconds are sufficient to significantly reduce (>50%) the projection uncertainties. These findings suggest robust procedures on how to reduce projection uncertainties, however, a balance between other sources of uncertainty due to operational conditions and the employed instrumentation are required to outline more practical guidelines.

47 OTHER INSTRUMENTATION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Boosting the H 2 –D 2 Exchange Activity of Dilute Nanoporous Ti–Cu Catalysts through Oxidation–Reduction Cycle–Induced Restructuring

The use of nanoporous metals as catalysts has attracted significant interest in recent years. Their high-curvature, nanoscale ligaments provide not only high surface area but also a high density of undercoordinated step edge and kink sites. However, their long-term stability, especially at higher temperatures, is often limited by thermal coarsening and the associated loss of surface area. Herein, it is demonstrated that the nanoscale morphology of nanoporous Cu can be regenerated by applying oxidation/reduction cycles at 250 °C. Specifically, the morphological evolution and H 2 dissociation activity of hierarchical nanoporous Cu catalysts doped with Ti during structural rearrangement triggered by oxidative and reductive atmospheres at elevated temperatures are studied. In addition to coarsening of the structure at elevated temperatures, oxidation at 400 °C causes an expansion of the ligaments. Further, subsequent reduction at 400 °C leads to the formation of particles and a drop in the H 2 dissociation activity compared the fresh catalyst. However, performing the redox cycle at 250 °C reverses coarsening and boosts the H 2 dissociation activity for the hydrogen–deuterium (H 2 –D 2 ) reaction. Herein, the possibility to reverse coarsening is demonstrated, thereby mitigating the loss of activity frequently observed in nanoporous catalysts.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2021

An Improved Representation of Aerosol Wet Removal by Deep Convection and Impacts on Simulated Aerosol Vertical Profiles

Here, we introduce a physics-based aerosol wet removal scheme with unified treatments of aerosol transport and removal by convective clouds into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6. Since several important physical processes are still neglected or poorly represented in this new physics-based scheme, we develop secondary improvements to the parameterizations of aerosol activation, resuspension, and cloud-borne aerosol detrainment in this new scheme. Changes in the aerosol wet removal scheme cause tropospheric aerosol concentrations to decrease to different extents: compared to the control run, the physics-based scheme significantly decreases aerosol burdens by up to 60% over the southern Pacific Ocean, whereas the secondary improvements mitigate the decreasing tendency. The burden changes also depend on aerosol chemical components: the sulfate mass decrease is compensated by secondary production, black carbon (BC) is effectively removed via increasing the hygroscopicity of particulate organic matter from 0 to 0.2, and dust shows the most spatially heterogeneous changes. Simulated aerosol profiles are evaluated against aircraft-based observations over the Pacific and Atlantic Oceans. The secondary-improved scheme reduces the overestimations of upper tropospheric BC and sea salt concentrations by a factor of 10 and 1,000, respectively, and reproduces the dependence of BC mass decrease rates on cloud types. Consideration of convective cloud-borne aerosol detrainment plays the most important role in enhancing the aerosol wet removal and decreasing the positive biases of tropospheric BC and sea salt concentrations. We also summarize unresolved issues related to convective cloud genesis and microphysics, cloud-borne aerosol evolution, and BC and dust emissions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nucleation and Contrail Formation

Condensation trails, or contrails, are aircraft-induced cirrus clouds. They come from the formation of water droplets, later converting to ice crystals as a result of water vapor condensing on aerosols either emitted by the aircraft engines or already present in the upper atmosphere. While there is ongoing debate about their true impact, contrails are estimated to be a major contributor to climate forcing from aviation. We remind that air transportation currently accounts for about 5 % of the global anthropogenic climate forcing, and that it is anticipated that air traffic will double in the coming decade or two. The expected growth reinforces the urgency of the need to develop a plan to better understand contrail formation and persistence, and deploy means to reduce or avoid contrail formation, or greatly mitigate their impact. It is evident that contrails should be part of the picture when developing a plan to make the aviation sector sustainable.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

The Role of In-Cloud Wet Removal in Simulating Aerosol Vertical Profiles and Cloud Radiative Forcing

Among the physical processes controlling aerosol vertical profiles, in-cloud wet removal is of utmost importance while its representation in global climate models (GCMs) is crude. In this study, we implement into the Community Atmosphere Model version 6 (CAM6) a physically based aerosol wet removal parameterization scheme that explicitly treats aerosol activation, removal and resuspension. Evaluation against in-situ observations shows that the default scheme substantially overestimates the upper tropospheric black carbon (BC) and sea salt mass. Our physically based scheme reduces BC and sea salt mass by a factor of 10 and 1,000, respectively, in better agreement with observations. Also, the new scheme slightly increases number of aerosol particles between 12 nm and 4.8 μm in diameter, thereby mitigating the aerosol number underestimation in the default scheme. Our new scheme reduces the overestimation of coarse-mode aerosol (0.5–4.8 μm) number. Overall, the aerosol property changes (mass decrease and number increase) reduce the cloud condensation nuclei (CCN) concentration at low supersaturation (i.e., 0.02% and 0.1%), and increase CCN at high supersaturations (i.e., 0.5% and 1%). Consequently, the global annual mean cloud liquid water path increases by 1.89 g m -2 and the ice water path increases by 0.51 g m -2 . The global annual mean shortwave, longwave, and net cloud radiative forcing change by -1.06, 0.57, and -0.48 W m -2 , respectively. Further improvement is needed to reflect the real physics that the removal efficiencies for aerosol mass and number are disproportionate and to advect cloud-borne (activated) aerosols for a complete aerosol lifecycle.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climate projections over the Great Lakes Region: using two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model

Abstract. Warming trends in the Laurentian Great Lakes and surrounding areas have been observed in recent decades, and concerns continue to rise about the pace and pattern of future climate change over the world's largest freshwater system. To date, most regional climate models used for Great Lakes projections either neglected the lake-atmosphere interactions or are only coupled with a 1-D column lake model to represent the lake hydrodynamics. This study presents a Great Lakes climate change projection that has employed the two-way coupling of a regional climate model with a 3-D lake model (GLARM) to resolve 3-D hydrodynamics essential for large lakes. Using the three carefully selected Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 (CMIP5) general circulation models (GCMs), we show that the GLARM ensemble average substantially reduces surface air temperature and precipitation biases of the driving GCM ensemble average in present-day climate simulations. The improvements are not only displayed from an atmospheric perspective but are also evident in the accurate simulations of lake temperature and ice coverage. We further present the GLARM projected climate change for the mid-21st century (2030–2049) and the late 21st century (2080–2099) in the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) 4.5 and RCP 8.5 scenarios. Under RCP 8.5, the Great Lakes basin is projected to warm by 1.3–2.1 ∘C by the mid-21st century and 4.1–5.0 ∘C by the end of the century relative to the early century (2000–2019). Moderate mitigation (RCP 4.5) reduces the mid-century warming to 0.8–1.8 ∘C and late-century warming to 1.8–2.7 ∘C. Annual precipitation in GLARM is projected to increase for the entire basin, varying from 0 % to 13 % during the mid-century and from 9 % to 32 % during the late century in different scenarios and simulations. The most significant increases are projected in spring and fall when current precipitation is highest and a minimal increase in winter when it is lowest. Lake surface temperatures (LSTs) are also projected to increase across the five lakes in all of the simulations, but with strong seasonal and spatial variability. The most significant LST increases occur in Lakes Superior and Ontario. The strongest warming is projected in spring that persists into the summer, resulting from earlier and more intense stratification in the future. In addition, diminishing winter stratification in the future suggests the transition from dimictic lakes to monomictic lakes by the end of the century. In contrast, a relatively smaller increase in LSTs during fall and winter is projected with heat transfer to the deep water due to the strong mixing and energy required for ice melting. Correspondingly, the highest monthly mean ice cover is projected to reduce to 3 %–15 % and 10 %–40 % across the lakes by the end of the century in RCP 8.5 and RCP 4.5, respectively. In the coastal regions, ice duration is projected to decrease by up to 60 d.

Xue, Pengfei (ORCID:000000025702421X)↗

DOE OSTI2021

Experimental decoy-state Bennett-Brassard 1984 quantum key distribution through a turbulent channel

In free-space quantum key distribution (QKD) in turbulent conditions, scattering and beam wandering cause intensity fluctuations which decrease the detected signal-to-noise ratio. This effect can be mitigated by rejecting received bits when the channel's transmittance is below a threshold. Thus, the overall error rate is reduced and the secure key rate increases despite the deletion of bits. In this work, we implement recently proposed selection methods focusing on the prefixed-threshold real-time selection (P-RTS) where a cutoff can be chosen prior to data collection and independently of the transmittance distribution. We perform finite-size decoy-state Bennett-Brassard 1984 QKD in a laboratory setting where we simulate the atmospheric turbulence using an acousto-optical modulator. We show that P-RTS can yield considerably higher secure key rates for a wide range of the atmospheric channel parameters. In addition, we evaluate the performance of the P-RTS method for a realistically finite sample size. We demonstrate that a near-optimal selection threshold can be predetermined even with imperfect knowledge of the channel transmittance distribution parameters.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗