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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 289 records · Page 16
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Evaluating Contemporary and Future-Scenario Substantial-Precipitation Events in the Missouri River Basin Using Object-Oriented Analysis

The Missouri River Basin is the largest single river basin in the United States, and, as such, it plays an important role in natural ecosystems as well as the country’s economy, through agriculture, hydroelectric power generation, and transportation. Episodes of heavy precipitation can have a substantial negative impact on all these aspects of the basin, so understanding how well these episodes are simulated and projected to change in the future climate is important. We analyzed contemporary and projected mid-century behavior of heavy-precipitation episodes using an object-oriented analysis to diagnose short-term (≥5-day) and extended-period (≥30-day) events with substantial precipitation, using PRISM gridded, observed precipitation and RegCM4 regional-climate simulations that used outputs from two different GCMs for boundary conditions. The simulations were produced for the North American portion of the CORDEX program. A 25 km grid was used for the simulations and for aggregated PRISM precipitation. Overall, the simulated contemporary-climate events compared favorably with the PRISM events’ frequency and duration. The simulated event areas tended to be larger than the areas in the PRISM events, suggesting that the effective resolution of the simulations is greater than 25 km. Event areas and durations change little going from contemporary to scenario climate. The short-term events increase in frequency by an amount commensurate with the increase in mean precipitation simulated for the basis. However, the extended-term events showed little change in frequency, despite the average precipitation increase. Roughly half the extended-period events overlapped with at least one short-term event in both the observations and the simulations. Extended-period events that overlap a short-term event generally have larger areas and longer durations compared to their counterparts with no overlapping short-term events. Understanding the climate dynamics yielding the two types of extended-period events could be useful for assessing future changes in the Missouri River Basin’s heavy precipitation events and their impact.

Fisel, Brandon J.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Biogenic Emissions and Aerosol Response on the North Slope (BEAR-oNS) Field Campaign Report

Climate in the Arctic is changing at a rapid pace. When vegetation reacts to these changes, chemicals called biogenic volatile organic compounds (BVOCs) can be released into the atmosphere in new ways. This project seeks to investigate how climate change affects the quantity and type of BVOCs released into the atmosphere on the North Slope of Alaska (NSA). In addition, we are interested in the chemical reactions these BVOCs undergo in the arctic atmosphere. Project goals will be accomplished through field work on the NSA at the U.S. Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement (ARM) user facility’s observatory in Utqiagvik, real-time measurements, and collection and laboratory analysis of atmospheric aerosol samples.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Exploiting SMILEs and the CMIP5 Archive to Understand Arctic Climate Change Seasonality and Uncertainty

Arctic Amplification (AA) exhibits a distinct seasonal dependence; it is weakest in boreal summer and strongest in winter. Here, we analyze simulations from single-model initial-condition large ensembles and Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase 5 to decipher the seasonal evolution of Arctic climate change. Models agree that the annual maximum AA shifts from autumn into winter over the 21st century, accompanied by similar shifts in sea-ice loss and surface turbulent heat fluxes, whereas the maximum precipitation shifts only into late autumn. However, the exact seasonal timing and magnitude of these shifts are highly uncertain. Decomposing the uncertainty into model structural differences, emission scenarios, and internal variability reveals that model differences dominate the total uncertainty, which also undergo autumn-to-winter shifts. We also find that the scenario uncertainty is unimportant for projections of AA. These results highlight that understanding model differences is critical to reducing uncertainty in projected Arctic climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Climate change alters flood magnitudes and mechanisms in climatically-diverse headwaters across the northwestern United States

Abstract Flooding caused by high streamflow events poses great risk around the world and is projected to increase under climate change. This paper assesses how climate change will alter high streamflow events by changing both the prevalence of different driving mechanisms (i.e. ‘flood generating processes’) and the magnitude of differently generated floods. We present an analysis of simulated changes in high streamflow events in selected basins in the hydroclimatically diverse Pacific Northwestern United States, classifying the events according to their mechanism. We then compare how the different classes of events respond to changes in climate at the annual scale. In a warmer future, high flow events will be caused less frequently by snowmelt and more frequently by precipitation events. Also, precipitation-driven high flow events are more sensitive to increases in precipitation than are snowmelt-driven high flow events, so the combination of the increase in both frequency and magnitude of precipitation-driven high flow events leads to higher flood likelihood than under each change alone. Our comparison of the results from two emissions pathways shows that a reduction in global emissions will limit the increase in magnitude and prevalence of these precipitation-driven events.

S Chegwidden, Oriana (ORCID:0000000313763835)↗
DOE OSTI2023

Multi-Scale Seismic Measurements for Site Characterization and CO2 Monitoring in an Enhanced Oil Recovery/Carbon Capture, Utilization, and Sequestration Project, Farnsworth Field, Texas

To address the challenges of climate change, significantly more geologic carbon sequestration projects are beginning. The characterization of the subsurface and the migration of the plume of supercritical carbon dioxide are two elements of carbon sequestration that can be addressed through the use of the available seismic methods in the oil and gas industry. In an enhanced oil recovery site in Farnsworth, TX, we employed three separate seismic techniques. The three-dimensional (3D) surface seismic survey required significant planning, design, and processing, but produces both a better understanding of the subsurface structure and a three-dimensional velocity model, which is essential for the second technique, a timelapse vertical seismic profile, and the third technique, cross-well seismic tomography. The timelapse 3D Vertical Seismic Profile (3D VSP) revealed both significant changes in the reservoir between the second and third surveys and geo-bodies that may represent the extent of the underground carbon dioxide. The asymmetry of the primary geo-body may indicate the preferential migration of the carbon dioxide. The third technique, cross-well seismic tomography, suggested a strong correlation between the well logs and the tomographic velocities, but did not observe changes in the injection interval.

Energy & Fuels↗
NASA NTRS2012

Global Air Quality and Climate

Emissions of air pollutants and their precursors determine regional air quality and can alter climate. Climate change can perturb the long-range transport, chemical processing, and local meteorology that influence air pollution. We review the implications of projected changes in methane (CH4), ozone precursors (O3), and aerosols for climate (expressed in terms of the radiative forcing metric or changes in global surface temperature) and hemispheric-to-continental scale air quality. Reducing the O3 precursor CH4 would slow near-term warming by decreasing both CH4 and tropospheric O3. Uncertainty remains as to the net climate forcing from anthropogenic nitrogen oxide (NOx) emissions, which increase tropospheric O3 (warming) but also increase aerosols and decrease CH4 (both cooling). Anthropogenic emissions of carbon monoxide (CO) and non-CH4 volatile organic compounds (NMVOC) warm by increasing both O3 and CH4. Radiative impacts from secondary organic aerosols (SOA) are poorly understood. Black carbon emission controls, by reducing the absorption of sunlight in the atmosphere and on snow and ice, have the potential to slow near-term warming, but uncertainties in coincident emissions of reflective (cooling) aerosols and poorly constrained cloud indirect effects confound robust estimates of net climate impacts. Reducing sulfate and nitrate aerosols would improve air quality and lessen interference with the hydrologic cycle, but lead to warming. A holistic and balanced view is thus needed to assess how air pollution controls influence climate; a first step towards this goal involves estimating net climate impacts from individual emission sectors. Modeling and observational analyses suggest a warming climate degrades air quality (increasing surface O3 and particulate matter) in many populated regions, including during pollution episodes. Prior Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) scenarios (SRES) allowed unconstrained growth, whereas the Representative Concentration Pathway (RCP) scenarios assume uniformly an aggressive reduction, of air pollutant emissions. New estimates from the current generation of chemistry-climate models with RCP emissions thus project improved air quality over the next century relative to those using the IPCC SRES scenarios. These two sets of projections likely bracket possible futures. We find that uncertainty in emission-driven changes in air quality is generally greater than uncertainty in climate-driven changes. Confidence in air quality projections is limited by the reliability of anthropogenic emission trajectories and the uncertainties in regional climate responses, feedbacks with the terrestrial biosphere, and oxidation pathways affecting O3 and SOA.

ozone↗
DOE OSTI2023

Increased drought and extreme events over continental United States under high emissions scenario

The frequency, severity, and extent of climate extremes in future will have an impact on human well-being, ecosystems, and the effectiveness of emissions mitigation and carbon sequestration strategies. The specific objectives of this study were to downscale climate data for US weather stations and analyze future trends in meteorological drought and temperature extremes over continental United States (CONUS). We used data from 4161 weather stations across the CONUS to downscale future precipitation projections from three Earth System Models (ESMs) participating in the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project Phase Six (CMIP6), specifically for the high emission scenario SSP5 8.5. Comparing historic observations with climate model projections revealed a significant bias in total annual precipitation days and total precipitation amounts. The average number of annual precipitation days across CONUS was projected to be 205 ± 26, 184 ± 33, and 181 ± 25 days in the BCC, CanESM, and UKESM models, respectively, compared to 91 ± 24 days in the observed data. Analyzing the duration of drought periods in different ecoregions of CONUS showed an increase in the number of drought months in the future (2023–2052) compared to the historical period (1989–2018). The analysis of precipitation and temperature changes in various ecoregions of CONUS revealed an increased frequency of droughts in the future, along with longer durations of warm spells. Eastern temperate forests and the Great Plains, which encompass the majority of CONUS agricultural lands, are projected to experience higher drought counts in the future. Drought projections show an increasing trend in future drought occurrences due to rising temperatures and changes in precipitation patterns. Our high-resolution climate projections can inform policy makers about the hotspots and their anticipated future trajectories.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Advancing a Watershed Hydro-Biogeochemical Theory: Linking Water Travel Time and Reaction Rates Under Changing Climate

The major goal of the project is to answer the question how and to what degree does a warming climate alter hydrological functioning and (biogeochemical and chemical weathering) reaction rates at the watershed scale? In particular, how does hydrological functioning (water storage, flow paths, and travel time) change responding to a warming climate? What are the corresponding alterations in biogeochemical and chemical weathering rates at the watershed scale? What is the general watershed-scale reaction rate law that causally links reaction rates to metrics of hydrological functioning that are determined by external hydroclimatic conditions and internal watershed structure characteristics? To answer these questions, we have used field measurements and reactive transport modeling. We have found that: 1) stream chemistry has altered tremendously in warmer years; 2) In this water-limited environment, hydrology is the dominant driver for soil respiration and carbon lateral export at the watershed scale; 3) deeper carbon respiration plays an essential role in regulating the patterns of stream carbon in low and high flow conditions, and deeper groundwater will become increasingly important as warming intensifies. This indicates in mountain streams, a warming climate will modify not only the timing and magnitude of streamflow as expected, but also the chemistry and quality of stream water.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Future Projection of Tropical Upper-Tropospheric Troughs and Implications for Tropical Cyclone Activity

Summertime tropical upper-tropospheric troughs (TUTTs) provide a unified framework to better understand how extratropical and tropical forcings jointly modulate basin-scale tropical cyclone (TC) activity. In this study, we examine future changes in TUTTs and their implications for TC activity. Multimodel ensemble-mean projections from 45 Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phase 6 (CMIP6) models suggest a contraction of the Pacific TUTT and an expansion of the Atlantic TUTT as the climate warms. Consistently, future changes in environment-based TC indices indicate that the large-scale conditions will become more favorable for TC genesis and intensification over the central North Pacific but less favorable over the tropical North Atlantic and Gulf of Mexico. Utilizing a TC-permitting large-ensemble dataset [i.e., the Database for Policy Decision-Making for Future Climate Change (d4PDF)] that adequately captures the observed interannual TUTT–TC relationships, we further confirm the impacts of projected TUTT changes on the TC activity in a warmer climate. In contrast, the TUTT–TC relationship is poorly represented in most CMIP6 High-Resolution Model Intercomparison Project (HighResMIP) models; such deficiencies call for caution when assessing future TC risk based on explicitly tracked TCs in these models. Additionally, CMIP6 projections show large intermodel spread in TUTT changes, implying uncertainty in projected TC activity, especially over the central-to-eastern Pacific and the North Atlantic. This intermodel spread is associated with interhemispheric sea surface temperature warming asymmetry, which leads to a meridional shift of the intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ) and the simultaneous weakening or strengthening of TUTTs in the North Pacific and North Atlantic. The potential contributions of anthropogenic aerosol forcing and oceanic circulation to this interhemispheric warming asymmetry are briefly examined.

Climate Change↗
DOE OSTI2020

Predicting soil carbon changes in switchgrass grown on marginal lands under climate change and adaptation strategies

Abstract The United States Great Lakes Region (USGLR) is a critical geographic area for future bioenergy production. Switchgrass ( Panicum virgatum ) is widely considered a carbon (C)‐neutral or C‐negative bioenergy production system, but projected increases in air temperature and precipitation due to climate change might substantially alter soil organic C (SOC) dynamics and storage in soils. This study examined long‐term SOC changes in switchgrass grown on marginal land in the USGLR under current and projected climate, predicted using a process‐based model (Systems Approach to Land‐Use Sustainability) extensively calibrated with a wealth of plant and soil measurements at nine experimental sites. Simulations indicate that these soils are likely a net C sink under switchgrass (average gain 0.87 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ), although substantial variation in the rate of SOC accumulation was predicted (range: 0.2–1.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 ). Principal component analysis revealed that the predicted intersite variability in SOC sequestration was related in part to differences in climatic characteristics, and to a lesser extent, to heterogeneous soils. Although climate change impacts on switchgrass plant growth were predicted to be small (4%–6% decrease on average), the increased soil respiration was predicted to partially negate SOC accumulations down to 70% below historical rates in the most extreme scenarios. Increasing N fertilizer rate and decreasing harvest intensity both had modest SOC sequestration benefits under projected climate, whereas introducing genotypes better adapted to the longer growing seasons was a much more effective strategy. Best‐performing adaptation scenarios were able to offset >60% of the climate change impacts, leading to SOC sequestration 0.7 Mg C ha −1 year −1 under projected climate. On average, this was 0.3 Mg C ha −1 year −1 more C sequestered than the no adaptation baseline. These findings provide crucial knowledge needed to guide policy and operational management for maximizing SOC sequestration of future bioenergy production on marginal lands in the USGLR.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗
DOE OSTI2023

A need for actionable climate projections across the Global South

Inconsistent climate projections for much of the Global South from six generations of IPCC assessments have compounded the many challenges it faces in adapting to climate change. Furthermore, we propose using emerging technologies and strengthening international collaborations to address these challenges.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS2013

Physical Processes Controlling Earth's Climate

As background for consideration of the climates of the other terrestrial planets in our solar system and the potential habitability of rocky exoplanets, we discuss the basic physics that controls the Earths present climate, with particular emphasis on the energy and water cycles. We define several dimensionless parameters relevant to characterizing a planets general circulation, climate and hydrological cycle. We also consider issues associated with the use of past climate variations as indicators of future anthropogenically forced climate change, and recent advances in understanding projections of future climate that might have implications for Earth-like exoplanets.

climate↗
NASA NTRS1994

Stellar activity: Astrophysics relevant to global change

FRESIP will obtain a great deal of data on stellar activity and flares on F, G and K dwarfs. Rotation periods, flare distributions and possibly stellar cycles will emerge. This apparently curiosity-driven research actually has implications for our understanding of global climate change. Significant climate change during the seventeenth-century Maunder Minimum is thought to be related to a change in the solar condition. Recently acquired data from the Greenland Ice-core Project suggest that far greater climate changes on decade time scales may have occurred during the previous interglacial. It is possible that a yet more drastic change in state of the Sun was responsible. We have no relevant solar data, but can begin to explore this possibility by observing an ensemble of solar-like stars.

Haisch, Bernhard M.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Climate change will reduce North American inland wetland areas and disrupt their seasonal regimes

Abstract Climate change can alter wetland extent and function, but such impacts are perplexing. Here, changes in wetland characteristics over North America from 25° to 53° North are projected under two climate scenarios using a state-of-the-science Earth system model. At the continental scale, annual wetland area decreases by ~10% (6%-14%) under the high emission scenario, but spatiotemporal changes vary, reaching up to ±50%. As the dominant driver of these changes shifts from precipitation to temperature in the higher emission scenario, wetlands undergo substantial drying during summer season when biotic processes peak. The projected disruptions to wetland seasonality cycles imply further impacts on biodiversity in major wetland habitats of upper Mississippi, Southeast Canada, and the Everglades. Furthermore, wetlands are projected to significantly shrink in cold regions due to the increased infiltration as warmer temperature reduces soil ice. The large dependence of the projections on climate change scenarios underscores the importance of emission mitigation to sustaining wetland ecosystems in the future.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Urban Expansion and Climate Change: Investigating the Impact of Future Scenarios on Child Health

Cities in the poorest countries of the world are rapidly urbanizing. In fact, some of the fastest growing cities on the planet are found in sub-Saharan Africa. Many people benefit from economic, educational, and health opportunities that exist in cities and, as a result, city-dwellers often face less risk of poverty and disease in the context of climate change than their rural-dwelling counterparts. However, rapid urbanization, resulting from a large and constant influx of migrants from rural areas, can put pressure on existing social, economic, and health systems. For poor cities, they face a challenge to support existing residents while also expanding to support the needs of migrants, many of whom are deeply impoverished. Additionally, in a climate change, linked to heat waves, floods, droughts, and other related events, can add stress to complex urban food, health, hygiene, and housing systems. In this project we investigate urban expansion, climate change, and health in four major African cities – Ouagadougou, Addis Ababa, Nairobi, and Kigali. We consider different scenarios of urban expansion using historic and contemporary maps of urban extent, combined with climate (temperature, rainfall, and vegetation) and land cover combined with spatially referenced health information from the Demographic and Health Surveys (DHS) to investigate the relationships between urban dwelling, climate change and health. Temperature and rainfall scenarios are developed under different urban land use futures (expanding agricultural areas versus reducing agricultural areas) to examine the ways that individual health outcomes related to malnutrition vary under different potential future conditions. Preliminary results of the research highlight the importance of temperature for health, in particular, and suggest that while urban conditions related to urban infrastructure (e.g., educational attainment, electricity access, and improved hygiene) cannot reduce health risks to counter the impacts of high temperatures and reduced agricultural land. As cities in poor countries urbanize, city-dwellers face unique risks when droughts, heat waves, and other extreme weather events occur. In this project we explore urban land use conditions, climate conditions and health using future scenarios. Specifically we evaluate health outcomes in the future while considering different land use practices, urban expansion, temperature, and rainfall conditions to identify individual-level risk and protective factors. We compare results across four major cities in sub Saharan Africa.

Public Health↗
NASA NTRS2018

Broad Band Effective and Affordable Approaches to Climate

Although we have had many decades of projections and warnings about climate change it is, as is all too usual, only fairly recently that actual impacts have stirred serious societal interest in mitigation efforts. Such efforts will involve changes, and changes are always difficult. In fact, although renewable energy is a bedrock mitigation approach, it is only as technology has reduced renewable costs below parity with fossil carbon that they have been taken very seriously. Renewable energy technologies are already producing some 25% of electricity worldwide and constitute some 65% of new generation. It appears that favorable economics motivates change more often than longer term issues. In the case of climate change, it is no longer long term. In fact many indicate we have a decade or less to institute serious mitigation or rather dire impacts are projected. Fortunately humans have invented approaches which would be effective in that decade time frame and be overall economically advantageous.

Bushnell, Dennis M.↗
DOE OSTI2021

Evaluating Climate Models with the CLIVAR 2020 ENSO Metrics Package

El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO) is the dominant mode of interannual climate variability on the planet, with far-reaching global impacts. It is therefore key to evaluate ENSO simulations in state-of-the-art numerical models used to study past, present, and future climate. Recently, the Pacific Region Panel of the International Climate and Ocean: Variability, Predictability and Change (CLIVAR) Project, as a part of the World Climate Research Programme (WCRP), led a community-wide effort to evaluate the simulation of ENSO variability, teleconnections, and processes in climate models. The new CLIVAR 2020 ENSO metrics package enables model diagnosis, comparison, and evaluation to 1) highlight aspects that need improvement; 2) monitor progress across model generations; 3) help in selecting models that are well suited for particular analyses; 4) reveal links between various model biases, illuminating the impacts of those biases on ENSO and its sensitivity to climate change; and to 5) advance ENSO literacy. By interfacing with existing model evaluation tools, the ENSO metrics package enables rapid analysis of multipetabyte databases of simulations, such as those generated by the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project phases 5 (CMIP5) and 6 (CMIP6). The CMIP6 models are found to significantly outperform those from CMIP5 for 8 out of 24 ENSO-relevant metrics, with most CMIP6 models showing improved tropical Pacific seasonality and ENSO teleconnections. Only one ENSO metric is significantly degraded in CMIP6, namely, the coupling between the ocean surface and subsurface temperature anomalies, while the majority of metrics remain unchanged.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Cross-biome synthesis of source versus sink limits to tree growth

Uncertainties surrounding tree carbon allocation to growth are a major limitation to projections of forest carbon sequestration and response to climate change. The prevalence and extent to which carbon assimilation (source) or cambial activity (sink) mediate wood production are fundamentally important and remain elusive. We quantified source-sink relations across biomes by combining eddy-covariance gross primary production with extensive on-site and regional tree ring observations. We found widespread temporal decoupling between carbon assimilation and tree growth, underpinned by contrasting climatic sensitivities of these two processes. Substantial differences in assimilation-growth decoupling between angiosperms and gymnosperms were determined, as well as stronger decoupling with canopy closure, aridity, and decreasing temperatures. Our results reveal pervasive sink control over tree growth that is likely to be increasingly prominent under global climate change.

Science & Technology - Other Topics↗