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NASA NTRS2013

The North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME): Phase-1 Seasonal to Interannual Prediction, Phase-2 Toward Developing Intra-Seasonal Prediction

The recent US National Academies report "Assessment of Intraseasonal to Interannual Climate Prediction and Predictability" was unequivocal in recommending the need for the development of a North American Multi-Model Ensemble (NMME) operational predictive capability. Indeed, this effort is required to meet the specific tailored regional prediction and decision support needs of a large community of climate information users. The multi-model ensemble approach has proven extremely effective at quantifying prediction uncertainty due to uncertainty in model formulation, and has proven to produce better prediction quality (on average) then any single model ensemble. This multi-model approach is the basis for several international collaborative prediction research efforts, an operational European system and there are numerous examples of how this multi-model ensemble approach yields superior forecasts compared to any single model. Based on two NOAA Climate Test Bed (CTB) NMME workshops (February 18, and April 8, 2011) a collaborative and coordinated implementation strategy for a NMME prediction system has been developed and is currently delivering real-time seasonal-to-interannual predictions on the NOAA Climate Prediction Center (CPC) operational schedule. The hindcast and real-time prediction data is readily available (e.g., http://iridl.ldeo.columbia.edu/SOURCES/.Models/.NMME/) and in graphical format from CPC (http://origin.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/people/wd51yf/NMME/index.html). Moreover, the NMME forecast are already currently being used as guidance for operational forecasters. This paper describes the new NMME effort, presents an overview of the multi-model forecast quality, and the complementary skill associated with individual models.

NOAA CPC↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Custom Integration of Multiple Medical Functionalities

INTRODUCTION: Previous spaceflight experience and results from probabilistic risk assessment of spaceflight medical risk have highlighted the need for vital sign measurements, medical scopes, and clinical imaging tools for managing medical conditions during spaceflight. The Human Research Program’s Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element and the Mars Campaign Office’s Exploration Medical Integrated Product Team (XMIPT) have performed ground-based evaluations of two Commercial-off-the-Shelf (COTS) Multi-functional Integrated Medical (MIM) devices, which integrate various medical capabilities together in one device. The key findings from these evaluations are presented in a complementary presentation, leaving this presentation to focus on forward recommendations for customized integration of multiple medical functionalities. KEY COMPONENTS: The key features of a custom integration of multiple medical functionalities includes devices and capabilities that optimally reduce medical risk. The COTS MIM devices incorporated functionality for best supporting Earth-based, emergency, pre-hospital care. Our custom integration will use probabilistic risk assessment tools, such as the Medical Extensible Dynamic Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool (MEDPRAT), to determine the optimal functionality to include based on medical risk minimization. An additional feature of custom integration includes the ability to adapt to different requirements within different vehicles and/or missions. The COTS MIM devices store data in patient specific records, however, the format of the records is not modifiable, and data are not easily transferred from the MIM device to a central data architecture outside of the manufacturer’s established system. Our concept for custom integration will use devices that have an open application programming interface, which can easily connect to independent data architectures and third-party visualization software. The ultrasound capabilities included within the COTS MIM devices did not satisfy many of the Artemis Research and Operations Working Group’s ultrasound functional needs, and therefore, incorporation of higher quality ultrasound capabilities within a customized integration will be beneficial. The COTS MIM devices included minimal procedural guidance and clinical decision support tools. Supplemental tools of this type would need to be supplied along with the COTS MIM devices if they were to be used operationally, so another advantage of customization is the ability to integrate these support tools along with the medical functionality, for a more streamlined user experience. CONCLUSION: Investigation of a customized integration of medical functionality provides a method for further understanding the needs of a long-term exploration spaceflight medical system. The crew members of these exploration missions will need to operate more and more independently from Earth-based ground support. Therefore, having an optimized, streamlined medical system, which contains the functionality and supporting information needed, while remaining within mission and vehicle constraints, will help to maintain crew health and performance, which is necessary for achieving high levels of mission success.

B E Lewandowski↗

NASA NTRS1986

Space Station overall management approach for operations

An Operations Management Concept developed by NASA for its Space Station Program is discussed. The operational goals, themes, and design principles established during program development are summarized. The major operations functions are described, including: space systems operations, user support operations, prelaunch/postlanding operations, logistics support operations, market research, and cost/financial management. Strategic, tactical, and execution levels of operational decision-making are defined.

Paules, G.↗

NASA NTRS1992

A recent Cleanroom success story: The Redwing project

Redwing is the largest completed Cleanroom software engineering project in IBM, both in terms of lines of code and project staffing. The product provides a decision-support facility that utilizes artificial intelligence (AI) technology for predicting and preventing complex operating problems in an MVS environment. The project used the Cleanroom process for development and realized a defect rate of 2.6 errors/KLOC, measured from first execution. This represents the total amount of errors that were found in testing and installation at three field test sites. Development productivity was 486 LOC/PM, which included all development labor expended in design specification through completion of incremental testing. In short, the Redwing team produced a complex systems software product with an extraordinarily low error rate, while maintaining high productivity. All of this was accomplished by a project team using Cleanroom for the first time. An 'introductory implementation' of Cleanroom was defined and used on Redwing. This paper describes the quality and productivity results, the Redwing project, and how Cleanroom was implemented.

Hausler, Philip A.↗

NASA NTRS2009

Integration of Weather Data into Airspace and Traffic Operations Simulation (ATOS) for Trajectory- Based Operations Research

Explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with the National Airspace System (NAS) structure is needed to improve the development and execution of operationally effective weather impact mitigation plans and has become increasingly important due to NAS congestion and associated increases in delay. This article considers several contemporary weather-air traffic management (ATM) integration applications: the use of probabilistic forecasts of visibility at San Francisco, the Route Availability Planning Tool to facilitate departures from the New York airports during thunderstorms, the estimation of en route capacity in convective weather, and the application of mixed-integer optimization techniques to air traffic management when the en route and terminal capacities are varying with time because of convective weather impacts. Our operational experience at San Francisco and New York coupled with very promising initial results of traffic flow optimizations suggests that weather-ATM integrated systems warrant significant research and development investment. However, they will need to be refined through rapid prototyping at facilities with supportive operational users We have discussed key elements of an emerging aviation weather research area: the explicit integration of aviation weather forecasts with NAS structure to improve the effectiveness and timeliness of weather impact mitigation plans. Our insights are based on operational experiences with Lincoln Laboratory-developed integrated weather sensing and processing systems, and derivative early prototypes of explicit ATM decision support tools such as the RAPT in New York City. The technical components of this effort involve improving meteorological forecast skill, tailoring the forecast outputs to the problem of estimating airspace impacts, developing models to quantify airspace impacts, and prototyping automated tools that assist in the development of objective broad-area ATM strategies, given probabilistic weather forecasts. Lincoln Laboratory studies and prototype demonstrations in this area are helping to define the weather-assimilated decision-making system that is envisioned as a key capability for the multi-agency Next Generation Air Transportation System [1]. The Laboratory's work in this area has involved continuing, operations-based evolution of both weather forecasts and models for weather impacts on the NAS. Our experience has been that the development of usable ATM technologies that address weather impacts must proceed via rapid prototyping at facilities whose users are highly motivated to participate in system evolution.

Peters, Mark↗

NASA NTRS2015

Demonstrating Autonomous Mission Operations Onboard the International Space Station

The NASA Autonomous Mission Operations (AMO) project conducted an experiment to turn over operation and management of selected International Space Station (ISS) sys- tems to the on-board crew. ISS crews managed two different spacecraft systems: the Total Organic Carbon Analyzer (TOCA), a water quality analyzer, and Station Support Com- puters (SSC) laptops, which are non-critical crew computer systems. These systems were selected because they are representative of systems a future crew may need to operate au- tonomously during a deep space mission. The crew autonomously operated these systems, taking on mission operations functions traditionally performed by support teams on the ground, using new software tools that provide decision support algorithms for planning, monitoring and fault management, hardware schematics, system briefs, and data displays that are normally unavailable to the crew. The experiment lasted seven months, during which ISS crews managed TOCA and SSCs on 22 occasions. The AMO software processed data from TOCA and SSCs continuously during this seven month period. The combined performance of the software and crew achieved a 88 success rate on managing TOCA activity, the system for which ground-truth was available.

Autonomous Mission Operations↗

NASA NTRS2011

Prognostics for Ground Support Systems: Case Study on Pneumatic Valves

Prognostics technologies determine the health (or damage) state of a component or sub-system, and make end of life (EOL) and remaining useful life (RUL) predictions. Such information enables system operators to make informed maintenance decisions and streamline operational and mission-level activities. We develop a model-based prognostics methodology for pneumatic valves used in ground support equipment for cryogenic propellant loading operations. These valves are used to control the flow of propellant, so failures may have a significant impact on launch availability. Therefore, correctly predicting when valves will fail enables timely maintenance that avoids launch delays and aborts. The approach utilizes mathematical models describing the underlying physics of valve degradation, and, employing the particle filtering algorithm for joint state-parameter estimation, determines the health state of the valve and the rate of damage progression, from which EOL and RUL predictions are made. We develop a prototype user interface for valve prognostics, and demonstrate the prognostics approach using historical pneumatic valve data from the Space Shuttle refueling system.

Daigle, Matthew↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Predicting Airport Runway Configurations for Decision-Support Using Supervised Learning

One of the most challenging tasks for air traffic controllers is runway configuration management (RCM). It deals with the optimal selection of runways to operate on (for arrivals and departures) based on traffic, surface wind speed, wind direction, other environmental variables, noise constraints, and several other airport-specific factors. It affects the efficiency of the National Airspace System (NAS) and both surface and airspace operations can benefit from better understanding future runway configurations. In this paper, we present a comprehensive implementation of predictive models for runway configuration estimation from large volumes of historical data. Specifically, operational data from two full years (2018 and 2019) is collected, analyzed, and fused together to build the data product used in this work. The data set differs from prior work in the field in terms of its scope, resolution, and variety of factors collected and considered. Meteorological data is collected from two different sources – current weather conditions from METAR (Meteorological Terminal Aviation Routine Weather Report) and forecast weather conditions from Localized Aviation MOS Program (LAMP). Operational data from the Federal Aviation Administration (FAA) Aviation System Performance Metrics (ASPM) related to scheduled and actual number of arrivals and departures, average taxi times, etc. are collected. NASA’s Sherlock Data Warehouse is used to identify critical information such as go-arounds, and other events that might impact RCM decision-making. All data is collected and aggregated over 15-minute intervals throughout the two years. This provides a resolution like the timescales that might be necessary for runway configuration management decision-making. A variety of supervised learning algorithms are tested including Support Vector Machine, Random Forest, Gradient Boosting, etc. including tuning of the model hyperparameters. The modeling process is applied and presented on two representative U.S. airports – Charlotte Douglas International Airport (KCLT) and Denver International Airport (KDEN). The two airports present different levels of complexity in terms of the total number of configurations used and provide a balanced perspective on the generalizability of the developed approach to other airports in the NAS. Initial results are promising (F1 score of 0.91 at KCLT and 0.83 at KDEN) for data in the test set. The final paper will contain a comprehensive comparison between different models and model building strategies as well as further refined results. Most important predictors for each airport will be identified along with a discussion and recommendations on adapting the framework to other scenarios.

Tejas G Puranik↗

NASA NTRS2017

Application of IRTAM to Support ISS Program Safety

The International Space Station (ISS) orbits near the F-peak of the ionosphere (approximately 400 km altitude). Generally, satellites orbiting at this altitude would have a floating potential (FP) of approximately -1 V due to the electron temperature (Te). However, the ISS has 8 large negatively grounded 160 V solar array wings (SAW) that collect a significant electron current from the ionosphere. This current drives the ISS FP much more negative during insolation and is highly dependent on the electron density (Ne). Also, due to the size of the ISS, magnetic inductance caused by the geomagnetic field produces a delta potential up to 40 V across the truss, possibly producing positive potentials. During Extravehicular Activity (EVA) the negative FP can lead to an arcing hazard when it exceeds -45.5 V, and the positive FP can produce a DC current high enough to stimulate the astronaut's muscles and also cause a hazard. Data collected from the Floating Potential Monitoring Unit (FPMU) have shown that the probability of either of these hazards occurring during times with quiet to moderately disturbed geomagnetic activity is low enough to no longer be considered a risk. However, a study of the ionosphere Ne during severe geomagnetic storm activity has shown that the Ne can be enhanced by a factor of 6 in the ISS orbit. As a result, the ISS Safety Review Panel (SRP) requires that ionospheric conditions be monitored using the FPMU in conjunction with the ISS Plasma Interaction Model (PIM) to determine if a severe geomagnetic storm could result in a plasma environment that could produce a hazard. A 'Real-Time' plasma hazard assessment process was developed to support ISS Program real-time decision making providing constraint relief information for EVAs planning and operations. This process incorporates 'real time' ionospheric conditions, ISS solar arrays' orientation, ISS flight attitude, and where the EVA will be performed on the ISS. This assessment requires real time data that is presently provided by the FPMU including ISS floating potential, along with ionospheric Ne and Te, in order to determine the present environment. Once the present environment conditions are known to be either above, below, or near the current IRI values, the IRI is used to forecast what the environment could become in the event of a severe geomagnetic storm. If the FPMU should fail, the Space Environments team needs another source of data which is utilized to support a short-term forecast for EVAs. The IRI Real-Time Assimilative Mapping (IRTAM) model is an ionospheric model that uses real time measurements from approximately 70 digisondes to produce foF2 and hmF2 global maps in 15 minute cadence. The Boeing Space Environments team has used the IRI coefficients produced in IRTAM to calculate the Ne along the ISS orbital track. The results of the IRTAM model have been compared to FPMU measurements and show excellent agreement (figure 1). IRTAM has been identified as a potential FPMU back-up system will be used as a backup for the FPMU to support the ISS Program following completion of an FPMU/IRTAM validation campaign.

Hartman, William A.↗

NASA NTRS1994

Efficient mission control for the 48-satellite Globalstar Constellation

The Globalstar system is being developed by Globalstar, Limited Partnership and will utilize 48 satellites in low earth orbit (See Figure 1) to create a world-wide mobile communications system consistent with Vice President Gore's vision of a Global Information Infrastructure. As a large long term commercial system developed by a newly formed organization, Globalstar provides an excellent opportunity to explore innovative solutions for highly efficient satellite command and control. Design and operational concepts being developed are unencumbered by existing physical and organizational infrastructures. This program really is 'starting with a clean sheet of paper'. Globalstar operations challenges can appear enormous. Clearly, assigning even a single person around the clock to monitor and control each satellite is excessive for Globalstar (it would require a staff of 200! . Even with only a single contact per orbit per satellite, data acquisitions will start or stop every 45 seconds! Although essentially identical, over time the satellites will develop their own 'personalities'and will re quire different data calibrations and levels of support. This paper discusses the Globalstar system and challenges and presents engineering concepts, system design decisions, and operations concepts which address the combined needs and concerns of satellite, ground system, and operations teams. Lessons from past missions have been applied, organizational barriers broken, partnerships formed across the mission segments, and new operations concepts developed for satellite constellation management. Control center requirements were then developed from the operations concepts.

Smith, Dan↗

NASA NTRS2014

The GOES-R Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM) and the Global Observing System for Total Lightning

for the existing GOES system currently operating over the Western Hemisphere. New and improved instrument technology will support expanded detection of environmental phenomena, resulting in more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings. Advancements over current GOES include a new capability for total lightning detection (cloud and cloud-to-ground flashes) from the Geostationary Lightning Mapper (GLM), and improved temporal, spatial, and spectral resolution for the next generation Advanced Baseline Imager (ABI). The GLM will map total lightning continuously day and night with near-uniform spatial resolution of 8 km with a product latency of less than 20 sec over the Americas and adjacent oceanic regions. This will aid in forecasting severe storms and tornado activity, and convective weather impacts on aviation safety and efficiency among a number of potential applications. The GLM will help address the National Weather Service requirement for total lightning observations globally to support warning decision-making and forecast services. Science and application development along with pre-operational product demonstrations and evaluations at NWS national centers, forecast offices, and NOAA testbeds will prepare the forecasters to use GLM as soon as possible after the planned launch and check-out of GOES-R in 2016. New applications will use GLM alone, in combination with the ABI, or integrated (fused) with other available tools (weather radar and ground strike networks, nowcasting systems, mesoscale analysis, and numerical weather prediction models) in the hands of the forecaster responsible for issuing more timely and accurate forecasts and warnings.

Goodman, Steven J.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Earth-Independent Medical Operations (EIMO) Concept of Operations

In contrast to the current crew health paradigm for low-Earth orbit and Lunar missions, which depends on real-time communication with Mission Control, deep-space exploration missions will require a significant shift in medical operations. This shift is driven by the constraints of operating at a considerable distance from Earth, such as resource limitations—lack of resupply, restricted mass, power, volume, and data—as well as communication delays and the inability to evacuate back to Earth during emergencies. To move toward a more self-reliant medical model, a strategy is needed to gradually increase space-based crew autonomy and reduce risks to mission success in the challenging environment of deep space. This transformative change, known as "Earth-Independent Medical Operations" (EIMO), explores the gradual transfer of medical care and decision-making from Earth-based support to space-based systems. The goal of this transition is to enhance astronaut health and performance while minimizing mission risks. EIMO requires the development of a medical system that integrates seamlessly with mission planning, vehicle and spacesuit design, and data architecture. This integration is crucial for building a robust medical infrastructure that not only safeguards astronaut well-being but also ensures overall mission success. The Human Research Program (HRP) Exploration Medical Capability (ExMC) Element has revised the EIMO model-based Concept of Operations (ConOps) which outlines an initial vision for EIMO. The ConOps, which is built on the stakeholders’ need, system goals, and objectives (NGOs), presents an array of in-mission scenarios that span a wide range of medical conditions demonstrating the system’s capabilities from basic to complex events. Developed by a multidisciplinary team of systems engineers, scientists, and clinicians within ExMC, the ConOps revision includes two new scenarios(Barotrauma and Self-Medical Management and Behavioral Health and Chronic Medical Care), and implementation of findings from EIMO technical interchange meetings that focused on data and training. The envisioned EIMO Medical System (MS) operates as a system of systems, gathering data from various sources such as reference databases, real-time wearable sensors, point-of-care diagnostics, and environmental controls. The MS also incorporates advanced training tools to support autonomous medical care, assisting the Crew Medical Officer (CMO) during medical events where Ground Support is either unavailable or communication-delayed beyond practicality. Furthermore, MS functions and capabilities were decomposed from the scenarios to establish foundational requirements for EIMO and traced to the NASA Spaceflight Human-System Standard(NASA-STD-3001, Volumes 1 and 2). These traces were performed to gain insights on the alignment of EIMO requirements with the NASA standard. This work serves as an initial recommendation to increase crew autonomy gradually and safely for Mars missions and future deep-space exploration.

medical system↗

NASA NTRS1991

What we were asked to do

Recommendations are made after 32 interviews, lesson identification, lesson analysis, and mission characteristics identification. The major recommendations are as follows: (1) to develop end-to-end planning and scheduling operations concepts by mission class and to ensure their consideration in system life cycle documentation; (2) to create an organizational infrastructure at the Code 500 level, supported by a Directorate level steering committee with project representation, responsible for systems engineering of end-to-end planning and scheduling systems; (3) to develop and refine mission capabilities to assess impacts of early mission design decisions on planning and scheduling; and (4) to emphasize operational flexibility in the development of the Advanced Space Network, other institutional resources, external (e.g., project) capabilities and resources, operational software and support tools.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS1977

Space construction base operations in support of solar power satellite development

Development of the Solar Power Satellite (SPS) system for initial operation in the late 1990's requires substantial orbital development activities in the mid-1980's leading to a key system development decision in about 1987. A manned Space Construction Base (SCB) in low-earth orbit is needed to support the SPS orbital development program. The SPS system development issues are defined, along with a candidate development program for resolving these issues. The development hardware systems of interest for the mid-1980's include: (1) a tapered linear array microwave antenna (123 x 125.6 m 'cross') with a 57-kW/rf amplitron output, which is SCB constructed and operated in low-earth orbit initially, and, subsequently, unmanned in geosynchronous earth orbit; and (2) a SCB-constructed and -operated 9 x 14.4 m planar array antenna (358 kW/rf/) powered by a 455-kWe silicon photovoltaic solar collector.

Mckhann, G. G.↗

NASA NTRS2015

Electronic Procedures for Medical Operations

Electronic procedures are replacing text-based documents for recording the steps in performing medical operations aboard the International Space Station. S&K Aerospace, LLC, has developed a content-based electronic system-based on the Extensible Markup Language (XML) standard-that separates text from formatting standards and tags items contained in procedures so they can be recognized by other electronic systems. For example, to change a standard format, electronic procedures are changed in a single batch process, and the entire body of procedures will have the new format. Procedures can be quickly searched to determine which are affected by software and hardware changes. Similarly, procedures are easily shared with other electronic systems. The system also enables real-time data capture and automatic bookmarking of current procedure steps. In Phase II of the project, S&K Aerospace developed a Procedure Representation Language (PRL) and tools to support the creation and maintenance of electronic procedures for medical operations. The goal is to develop these tools in such a way that new advances can be inserted easily, leading to an eventual medical decision support system.

Source record↗

NASA NTRS2022

A Modular Framework for Integrating and Visualizing Telemetry for Mars 2020 Rover Mechanism Operations

The analysis of mechanism telemetry requires a wide variety of tools to quickly and effectively assess spacecraft state, capture long-term trends in system performance, and identify and track anomalous events. Such analysis often requires spacecraft telemetry to first be transformed into derived fields and aggregated statistics before operators can begin their analysis. In past missions, aspects of this process have been automated, but operators were expected to use their own tools and procedures to understand and visualize the data, which led to redundant and inconsistent tools and processes. The Mech Data Tools Python library (MDT) was developed to provide a flexible, unified tool set for operators to extract and analyze mechanism telemetry over the life of the Mars 2020 surface mission. MDT consists of a set of configurable components that implement standard interfaces for ingesting input and producing output. Components can be chained together to form a data processing pipeline. Data are ingested from several sources within the greater Mars 2020 cloud infrastructure and stored in pandas DataFrames, which allows users to leverage the data manipulation capabilities present within the widely-used pandas library. Visualization capabilities are provided through the Plotly library, which generates interactive plots for users to interpret. Following the beginning of Mars 2020 surface operations, usage of MDT has spread to all mechanism-focused subsystems and has demonstrated great utility in analyzing early surface activities. This paper describes MDT’s evolution from heritage mechanism telemetry tools, the critical architecture decisions and challenges faced over MDT’s two years of development, and current applications of MDT in support of mechanism operations.

Wolsieffer, Ben↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

Uncrewed Aircraft flight operations at a regional airport will be affected by the uncertainty in the Visual Flight Rules traffic around. This paper analyzes Visual Flight Rules traffic behavior, compares it with Instrument Flight Rules traffic and develops traffic prediction methods to support uncrewed aircraft flight operations. The spatio-temporal distribution of traffic operating under Visual Flight Rules and Instrument Flight Rules was analyzed from one month of historical track data around Fort Worth Alliance airport as a representative regional airport. The traffic behavior was visualized as occupancy maps generated at different altitudes. The Instrument Flight Rules traffic was concentrated in fewer regions of the airspace along structured routes where the risk of interacting with one or more flights reached close to fifty percent in some areas. Visual Flight Rules traffic was spread over more regions, mostly segregated from the Instrument Flight Rules regions, and the risk of interaction was lower reaching up to twenty-five percent on average over the month in some regions. The interaction risk was predicted using predictive occupancy maps over multiple time horizons and conditioned on time and partial observation of traffic in the vicinity. The month-to-month predictability of Visual Flight Rules risk was lower than that of the Instrument Flight Rules traffic, consistently over all the conditions analyzed. However, the prediction and its accuracy were demonstrated to be sensitive to the conditions used. The predictive models generated can be used to support both strategic planning and in-flight decision-making by uncrewed aircraft during flight operations while maintaining an acceptable risk of interacting with other traffic.

VFR↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Analysis and Prediction of VFR Vs IFR Traffic Behavior to Support Uncrewed Aircraft Flight Operations at Regional Airports

VFR↗