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282 records · Page 16

Balancing renewable energy and river resources by moving from individual assessments of hydropower projects to energy system planning

As governments and non-state actors strive to minimize global warming, a primary strategy is the decarbonization of power systems which will require a massive increase in renewable electricity generation. Leading energy agencies forecast a doubling of global hydropower capacity as part of that necessary expansion of renewables. While hydropower provides generally low-carbon generation and can integrate variable renewables, such as wind and solar, into electrical grids, hydropower dams are one of the primary reasons that only one-third of the world’s major rivers remain free-flowing. This loss of free-flowing rivers has contributed to dramatic declines of migratory fish and sediment delivery to agriculturally productive deltas. Further, the reservoirs behind dams have displaced tens of millions of people. Thus, hydropower challenges the world’s efforts to meet climate targets while simultaneously achieving other Sustainable Development Goals. In this paper, we explore strategies to achieve the needed renewable energy expansion while sustaining the diverse social and environmental benefits of rivers. These strategies can be implemented at scales ranging from the individual project (environmental flows, fish passage and other site-level mitigation) to hydropower cascades to river basins and regional electrical power systems. While we review evidence that project-level management and mitigation can reduce environmental and social costs, we posit that the most effective scale for finding balanced solutions occurs at the scale of power systems. We further hypothesize that the pursuit of solutions at the system scale can also provide benefits for investors, developers and governments; evidence of benefits to these actors will be necessary for achieving broad uptake of the approaches described in this paper. We test this hypothesis through cases from Chile and Uganda that demonstrate the potential for system-scale power planning to allow countries to meet low-carbon energy targets with power systems that avoid damming high priority rivers (e.g., those that would cause conflicts with other social and environmental benefits) for a similar system cost as status quo approaches. We also show that, through reduction of risk and potential conflict, strategic planning of hydropower site selection can improve financial performance for investors and developers, with a case study from Colombia.

Opperman, Jeffrey J.↗

Land-Based Wind Market Report: 2021 Edition

The U.S. Department of Energy's 2021 edition of its land-based wind market report provides an overview of key trends in the U.S. wind power market, with a focus on 2020. You can find a report, data file and presentation on the Files tab, below. Additionally, several data visualizations are available on the Visualizations tab. Highlights of this year’s update include: -Wind comprises a growing share of electricity supply: U.S. wind power capacity grew at a record pace in 2020, with 25 billion dollars invested in 16.8 GW of capacity. Wind energy output rose to account for more than 8% of the entire nation’s electricity supply, and is more than 20% in 10 states. At least 209 GW of wind are seeking transmission interconnection; 61 GW of this capacity are offshore wind and 13 GW are hybrid plants that pair wind with storage or PV. -Wind project performance has increased over time: The average capacity factor among recently built projects was over 40%, considerably higher than projects built earlier. The highest capacity factors are seen in the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country. -Turbines continue to get larger: Improved plant performance has been driven by larger turbines mounted on taller towers and featuring longer blades. In 2010, no turbines employed blades that were 115 meters in diameter or larger, but in 2020, 91% of newly installed turbines featured such rotors. Proposed projects indicate that total turbine height will continue to rise. -Low wind turbine pricing has pushed down installed project costs over the last decade: Wind turbine prices are averaging 775–850 dollars/kW. The average installed cost of wind projects in 2020 was 1,460 dollars/kW, down more than 40% since the peak in 2010, though stable for the last three years. The lowest costs were found in Texas and the (non-ISO) West. -Wind energy prices remain low, around 20 dollars/MWh in the interior of the country: After topping out at 70 dollars/MWh for power purchase agreements (PPAs) executed in 2009, the national average price of wind PPAs has dropped. In the interior ‘wind belt’ of the country, recent pricing is around 20 dollars/MWh. In the West and East, prices tend to average 30 dollars/MWh or more. These prices, which are possible in part due to federal tax support, fall below the projected future fuel costs of gas-fired generation. -Wind PPA prices are often attractive compared to wind’s grid-system market value: The value of wind in wholesale power markets is affected by the location of wind plants, their hourly output profiles, and how those characteristics correlate with real-time electricity prices and capacity markets. The market value of wind declined in 2020, following natural gas prices lower and averaging under 15 dolalrs/MWh in ERCOT, MISO, NYISO and SPP; higher values were seen in CAISO, ISO-NE and PJM. -The average levelized cost of wind energy is down to 33 dollars/MWh: Levelized costs, which exclude the impacts of federal tax incentives, vary across time and geography, but the national average stood at 33 dollars/MWh in 2020—down substantially historically, though consistent with the previous two years. Levelized costs were lowest in ERCOT, SPP, and the (non-ISO) West. -The health and climate benefits of wind in 2020 were larger than its grid-system value, and the combination of all three far exceeds the current levelized cost of wind: Wind generation reduces power-sector emissions of carbon dioxide, nitrogen oxides, and sulfur dioxide. These reductions, in turn, provide public health and climate benefits that vary regionally, but together are economically valued at an average of 76 dollars/MWh-wind nationwide in 2020. -The domestic supply chain for wind equipment is diverse: For wind projects recently installed in the U.S., domestically manufactured content is highest for nacelle assembly (>85%), towers (60-75%), and blades and hubs (30-50%), but is much lower for most components internal to the nacelle.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Dual aging pathways of Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts: Hydrothermal vs. sulfur-induced deactivation

Hydrothermal aging (HTA) and chemical poisoning are two primary factors contributing to the real-world degradation of Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts. Investigating field-returned samples offers valuable insights into performance degradation caused by these mechanisms. However, the simultaneous presence of both deactivation pathways complicates the isolation of their individual effects in post-mortem analyses. In this study, we separately prepared model Cu-SSZ-13 SCR catalysts subjected to hydrothermal-aging and sulfur-induced chemical poisoning. Using various characterization techniques, we elucidated the specific role of each aging process in catalyst deactivation and compared the results to real-world field-aged catalysts. Our findings show that hydrothermal aging at 650 °C for 100 h caused dealumination of the zeolite framework but no significant CuO x cluster formation. In contrast, sulfur aging (via sulfur exposure, calcination at 550 °C, and desulfation up to 750 °C) led to CuO x formation without any observable dealumination. On model catalysts, sulfur poisoning was found to reduce Cu mobility and the amount of active Cu sites, thus degrading catalyst activity. Although some activity was recovered upon desulfation, a portion of the initial catalyst activity remained irreversibly lost due to CuO x formation. We demonstrate that this occurs because sulfated species impede the ability of multi-nuclear Cu species (e.g., Cu dimers) to split back into their isolated form, leading to CuSO 4 -clusters that oxidatively desulfate to CuO x species. This degradation pathway explains the significant reduction in activity of field-aged samples, where substantial CuSO 4 -cluster accumulation leads to reduced active Cu and subsequent conversion to CuO x . Furthermore, the conclusions from model catalysts were extended directly to field-aged commercial samples, elucidating the decline in activity and chemical properties during field deployment.

Catalyst Deactivation↗

Fluidized-Bed Gasification of Coal-Biomass-Plastics for Hydrogen Production

Coal is one of the most abundant fossil energy resources in the United States and in the world. The recoverable reserves in the United States are estimated to be about 252 billion tons – more than 350 years of supply at current rates of usage. However, the share of coal in total primary energy consumption in the US has been declining over the years. The decline of coal is mainly attributed to cheap natural gas and precipitous declines in the cost of electricity production from renewable technologies such as wind and solar. Coal can potentially be used if it is coupled with carbon-neutral feedstock such as biomass-agricultural residues, forest biomass, and forest residues. Co-gasification of coal and biomass can become a negative carbon emission technology if the carbon dioxide (CO 2 ) is captured and sequestered. Although the biomass gasification process has a lot of similarities to coal gasification, the large-scale adaptation of power production sourced from biomass has not come to fruition. The main reason is that the power production from biomass is still expensive when compared with natural gas or coal power technologies. To address the feedstock cost, one approach is to use low-cost feedstocks, such as municipal solid wastes (MSW) or plastics, for gasification. Gasification involves the partial oxidation of coal and/or biomass feedstocks to produce a combustible fuel called synthesis gas (syngas) which is composed of carbon monoxide (CO), hydrogen (H 2 ), CO 2 , methane (CH 4 ), nitrogen (N 2 ), water (H 2 O), and other compounds that might be considered as contaminants. Raw syngas from gasification must go through multiple steps to produce high-purity hydrogen. The specific steps depend upon the quality (gas composition, contaminants, and their concentration) and condition (pressure and temperature) of syngas. The long-term goal of the project was to utilize coal and plastics together with biomass to produce energy and fuels using a gasification platform while reducing greenhouse gas emissions. The main objective of this research was to examine gasification performance in a laboratory-scale fluidized-bed gasifier for hydrogen production. The specific objectives of the research were to: (i) study coal-plastic-biomass mixture flowability for consistent feeding in the gasifier; (ii) understand the gasification behavior of the mixture in steam and oxygen environments; (iii) perform thermal property characterization of ash and slag from the mixture feedstock and refractory-ash interface of the mixture under gasification conditions; and (iv) develop process models to determine the technology needed for syngas cleanup and contaminants. The study found that there was no apparent segregation when biomass, coal, and waste plastics were mixed together during feeding. Although there were differences in hydrogen production when individual feedstock were fed, the hydrogen concentration remained almost constant with various blends. Therefore, blending waste plastics with biomass and coal, which are all abundant, is a better approach for energy production. Results of the techno-economic analysis suggested that integration of advanced gasification (GTI’s R-GAS™) and syngas cleanup and conditioning technologies (RTI’s WDP and AFWGS) for clean hydrogen production resulted in substantial benefits, including significant capital cost and operating cost reductions. Advanced technologies resulted in 16% reduction in the hydrogen production cost (COH) from 2.94 $\$$/kg to 2.47 $\$$/g, with further scope for optimization and cost reduction. These advanced technologies also result in lower emissions, and improved energy efficiency.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Data from: "Snowmelt Timing Regulates Community Composition, Phenology, and Physiological Performance of Alpine Plants"

This archive contains data that were used to support conclusions drawn in “Snowmelt Timing Regulates Community Composition, Phenology, and Physiological Performance of Alpine Plants”, by Winkler et al., 2018. Data were collected throughout the 2009 growing season on Niwot Ridge, Colorado, before the site became part of the Alpine Treeline Warming Experiment (ATWE). Geospatial files are included in this archive to provide additional locational context. The files in this data package consist of five comma-separated-values (.csv) files, one keyhole markup language (.kml) file, and two ESRI shapefiles (.shp). The .csv files can be opened by Microsoft Excel, R, or any simple text-editor software, such as TextEdit (MacOS) or Notepad (Windows). The .kml files can be opened by Google Maps or Google Earth, and the .shp files are compatible with GIS softwares such as ESRI’s ArcGIS suite, and QGIS.------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------We asked how plant community composition, phenology, plant water relations, and photosynthetic gas exchange of alpine-restricted and wide-ranging species differ in their responses to a ca. 40-day snowmelt gradient in the Colorado Rocky mountains (Lewisia pygmaea, Sibbaldia procumbens, and Hymenoxys grandiflora were alpine-restricted and Artemisia scopulorum, Carex rupestris, and Geum rossii were wide-ranging species). To do this, we measured percent cover and flowering initiation across 20 plots varying in snowmelt timing and measured net photosynthesis and stomatal conductance in multiple individuals of each target species in these plots in 2009.As hypothesized, species richness and foliar cover increased with earlier snowmelt, due to a greater abundance of wide-ranging species present in earlier melting plots. Flowering initiation occurred earlier with earlier snowmelt for 12 out of 19 species analyzed, while flowering duration was shortened with later snowmelt for six species (all but one were wide ranging species). We observed >50% declines in net photosynthesis from July to September as soil moisture and plant water potentials declined. Early-season stomatal conductance was higher in wide-ranging species, indicating a more competitive strategy for water acquisition when soil moisture is high. Even so, there were no associated differences in photosynthesis or transpiration, suggesting no strong differences between these groups in physiology.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Optimizing quantification of MK6240 tau PET in unimpaired older adults

Accurate measurement of Alzheimer's disease (AD) pathology in older adults without significant clinical impairment is critical to assessing intervention strategies aimed at slowing AD-related cognitive decline. The U.S. Study to Protect Brain Health Through Lifestyle Intervention to Reduce Risk (POINTER) is a 2-year randomized controlled trial to evaluate the effect of multicomponent risk reduction strategies in older adults (60-79 years) who are cognitively unimpaired but at increased risk for cognitive decline/dementia due to factors such as cardiovascular disease and family history. The POINTER Imaging ancillary study is collecting tau-PET ([ 18 F]MK6240), beta-amyloid (Aβ)-PET ([ 18 F]florbetaben [FBB]) and MRI data to evaluate neuroimaging biomarkers of AD and cerebrovascular pathophysiology in this at-risk sample. Here 481 participants (70.0±5.0; 66% F) with baseline MK6240, FBB and structural MRI scans were included. PET scans were coregistered to the structural MRI which was used to create FreeSurfer-defined reference regions and target regions of interest (ROIs). We also created off-target signal (OTS) ROIs to examine the magnitude and distribution of MK6240 OTS across the brain as well as relationships between OTS and age, sex, and race. OTS was unimodally distributed, highly correlated across OTS ROIs and related to younger age and sex but not race. Aiming to identify an optimal processing approach for MK6240 that would reduce the influence of OTS, we compared our previously validated MRI-guided standard PET processing and 6 alternative approaches. The alternate approaches included combinations of reference region erosion and meningeal OTS masking before spatial smoothing as well as partial volume correction. To compare processing approaches we examined relationships between target ROIs (entorhinal cortex (ERC), hippocampus or a temporal meta-ROI (MetaROI)) SUVR and age, sex, race, Aβ and a general cognitive status measure, the Modified Telephone Interview for Cognitive Status (TICSm). Overall, the processing approaches performed similarly, and none showed a meaningful improvement over standard processing. Across processing approaches we observed previously reported relationships with MK6240 target ROIs including positive associations with age, an Aβ+> Aβ- effect and negative associations with cognition. In sum, we demonstrated that different methods for minimizing effects of OTS, which is highly correlated across the brain within subject, produced no substantive change in our performance metrics. This is likely because OTS contaminates both reference and target regions and this contamination largely cancels out in SUVR data. Caution should be used when efforts to reduce OTS focus on target or reference regions in isolation as this may exacerbate OTS contamination in SUVR data.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Quantifying Thermal Output of Energetic Materials (LDRD Final Report)

We present the results of an LDRD project, funded by the Nuclear Deterrence IA, to develop capabilities for quantitative assessment of pyrotechnic thermal output. The thermal battery igniter is used as an exemplar system. Experimental methodologies for thermal output evaluation are demonstrated here, which can help designers and engineers better specify pyrotechnic components , provide thermal output guidelines for new formulations, and generate new metrics for assessing component performance and margin given a known failure condition. A heat-transfer analysis confirms that the dominant mode of energy transfer from the pyrotechnic output plume to the heat pellet is conduction via deposition of hot titanium particles. A simple lumped-parameter model of titanium particle heat transfer and a detailed multi-phase model of deposition heat transfer are discussed. Pyrotechnic function, as defined by "go/no-go" standoff testing of a heat pellet, is correlated with experimentally measured igniter plume temperature, titanium metal particle temperature, and energy deposition. Three high-speed thermal diagnostics were developed for this task. A three-color imaging pyrometer, acquiring 100k images per second on three color channels, is deployed for measurement of titanium particle temperatures. Complimentary measurements of the overall igniter plume emission ("color") temperature were conducted using a transmission-grating spectrograph in line-imaging mode. Heat flux and energy deposition to a cold wall at the heat-pellet location were estimated using an eroding thermocouple probe, with a frequency response of ~5 kHz. Ultimate "go/no-go" function in the igniter/heat-pellet system was correlated with quantitative thermal metrics, in particular surface energy deposition and plume color temperature. Titanium metal-particle and plume color temperatures both experience an upper bound approximated by the 3245-K boiling point of TiO 2 . Average metal-particle temperatures remained nearly constant for all standoff distances at T = 2850 K, ± 300 K, while plume color temperature and heat flux decay with standoff—suggesting that heat-pellet failure results from a drop in metal-particle flux and not particle temperature. At 50% likelihood of heat-pellet failure, peak time-resolved plume color temperatures drop well below TiO 2 boiling to ~2000 - 2200 K, near the TiO 2 melting point. Estimates of peak heat flux decline from up to 1 GW/m 2 for near-field standoffs to below 320 MW/m 2 at 50% failure likelihood.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Sub-pilot-scale Production of High-Value Products from U.S. Coals

Investigators from the University of Utah, University of Wyoming and Marshall University pursued a program to study the conversion of raw coal to high-value products of carbon fiber and silicon carbide. Team members also developed an initial framework for a data portal that can incorporate laboratory data on coal processing and product quality, and also work with tools for machine learning for data analysis, data visualization and economic assessment. Experimental R&D efforts focused on the conversion of raw coal to coal tar and other byproducts, and the resulting tar intermediates were upgraded to form anisotropic and isotropic pitch materials. These pitch materials were produced from coal using both thermal (pyrolysis) and chemical (mild solvolysis liquefaction) decomposition of raw coal. Four different coals were studied: Utah bituminous coal (Sufco), Wyoming PRB coal (Black Thunder), Illinois bituminous coal (Illinois #6), and West Virginia bituminous coal (Flying Eagle). Both metallurgical-grade coking coals and lower-grade steam coals were investigated, and controlled secondary gas-phase reactions were used during a two-stage pyrolysis process to induce cracking and condensation reactions among the pyrolytic tar species. This approach successfully improved the performance of the lower grade coals for yielding pitch materials, with properties more consistent with a commercial-grade pitch that had previously demonstrated success for quality carbon fiber production. The use of waste plastic materials was also studied, to help improve physical and chemical characteristics of the intermediate tars and final pitch product; in particular, for lowering the pitch softening point to an acceptable level for melt spinning carbon fiber. Mild solvolysis liquefaction was also used as a method for producing pitch for carbon fiber production. As expected, significantly higher pitch yields were obtained using this approach, and waste plastic materials were also successfully used to reduce pitch softening point to an acceptable level. The plastic materials were also utilized to create a solvent for the mild solvolysis process, and this plastic-derived solvent was shown to provide results consistent with more expensive commercial chemical solvents, and could thus avoid the need for costly recovery and recycle of a liquefaction solvent. Additional experimental R&D focused on the production of silicon carbide (β-SiC) from the residual char byproduct from pitch production, and also on the production of carbon fiber from the anisotropic pitch. SiC was successfully synthesized using a mixture of residual char and sandstone at a ratio of 1:1. Reaction temperature and residence time were optimized and yielded a product purity of 81%. For carbon fiber production, the most successful pitch samples were obtained from the mild solvolysis liquefaction approach, combined with the use of a plastic (HDPE)-derived solvent. Fiber properties improved over time as laboratory fiber production methodologies improved, and final yields of carbon fiber were obtained with a diameter of 12.14 ± 1.10 um, Modulus of 173.73 ± 15.25 GPa, and Tensile Strength of 1.04 ± 0.10 GPa. A proof-of-concept Modern Community Research Data Portal (MCRDP) was developed and deployed for coal and coal-derived pitch characterization, with the full support of (i) remote web-based access, (ii) distributed analysis, (iii) interactive visualization and exploration, (iv) shared and long-term data access, (v) advanced query capabilities and (vi) real-time collaboration. The Coal to Products Data Portal “coaltoproducts.org” provides researchers with space to store and share data within a project, tools for analyzing and understanding data for scientific investigation, and the ability to publish data to the broader community for reproducibility. The portal leverages the Material Commons 2.0 (MC) platform developed by the Center for PRedictive Integrated Structural Materials Science (PRISMS) of the University of Michigan, to achieve long-term longevity of data collections and, more importantly, collaborative science. A number of data visualization tools were also assessed and implemented for interrogating the experimental and modeling data. The machine learning portion of this project analyzed datasets from two different coal conversion processes performed on a diverse set of coal samples from both the coal pyrolysis experiments and the solvent liquefaction experiments. The work was initiated by exploring standard regression models on the pyrolysis data, aiming to understand the impact of sample characteristics and processing conditions on key product metrics. Over the course of the project, the focus expanded to include a variety of machine learning tools, delving into both supervised and unsupervised learning methods. Models tested on the pyrolysis data included linear, ridge, lasso, elastic-net, Gaussian process, random forest regression, and AutoSklearn, and the approach was continually refined to enhance predictive accuracy and model interpretability. Similar techniques were applied to the liquefaction data with an additional focus on feature engineering. Along with mesophase content, additional outputs of interest were the pitch yield, softening point, and QI content. Insights derived from these analyses are crucial in determining the factors influencing the quality and yield of coal-derived products. As the work progressed, the research evolved from foundational model comparisons to analyses of random forests, decision paths, and feature importance scores. A thorough market analysis was performed to examine the prospects of coal-based carbon fibers. The best opportunities for coal come from its lower and more stable price relative to petroleum, particularly for subbituminous coals, which is the primary advantage that a coal refinery may have over a petroleum refinery. Before a commercial CTP production facility can be modeled, however, several things need to be understood regarding the nature of the would-be coal refinery. These include the technology to be deployed, the size of facility, the volume(s) of co-product(s), and the waste and emissions profile of the plant. The volume of co-products and waste may be substantial and will require separate market analysis to ensure viability. In the near-term, the importance of coal tar pitch, in the form of carbon pitch, to the aluminum and steel industries is likely to overshadow the alternative use of this material as an input for carbon fiber. The importance of steel and aluminum in building materials, and the need for carbon materials in their manufacturing, will ensure that demand for these products remains for the long run. In addition, carbon fiber may also be the best substitute for steel and aluminum well into the future. While society will eventually be able to shift production of much of its electricity needs to renewables, it will not be able to shift away from fossil fuels for production of high-strength construction and vehicular materials. Demand for carbon fiber is expected to increase quickly, but the volume of carbon fiber and the amount of coal that would be needed to produce even a sizeable share of this market may still be relatively small compared to current coal production. Thus, other coal-based products like graphene, graphite, carbon foams, resins, and carbon-based building products will play important roles in sustaining coal production as coal-fired power generation continues to decline.

01 COAL, LIGNITE, AND PEAT↗

Dominant Controls on Preferential Flow and Their Implications for Future Soil Water Fluxes

Abstract Soil water flow, particularly preferential flow (PF), is a critical control on hydrological and biogeochemical processes, including groundwater recharge, contaminant transport, and carbon cycling. However, it remains challenging to predict PF occurrence across large environmental gradients. Here, we developed a deep learning (DL) model to estimate event‐scale soil water flow velocity and the probability of PF occurrence using high‐frequency soil moisture and precipitation data from 33 sites across the National Ecological Observatory Network. The model demonstrated high skill in predicting the binary occurrence of PF (91% F1‐score; 85% accuracy) but the performance was limited in predicting soil water velocity ( R 2 = 0.31). We found that precipitation characteristics (duration, volume, and intensity) were the most important predictors for soil water velocity. Among the non‐precipitation event variables, sand content showed relatively high predictive skill, though differences among non‐event climate variables were generally modest. Lower sand content was associated with increased predicted soil water velocity, a finding that highlights the role of soil structure in producing more non‐uniform flow, which contrasts with traditional uniform flow models. Projecting a reduced DL model under both moderate and high‐emissions future climate scenarios (2060–2099 Representative Concentration Pathways 4.5 and 8.5), we found ∼7.3% increase under RCP4.5 and ∼15% under RCP8.5 of soil water velocities compared to the historical simulation, while modeled likelihood of PF changed little. These findings suggest climate change is not making PF more frequent, but it is making existing PF pathways more efficient with important consequences for associated nutrient and contaminant transport under climate change. Plain Language Summary Water movement in soil is critical for water quality. While often modeled as a uniform flow process, in reality water moves rapidly through cracks and burrows in what is called “preferential flow” (PF), which limits natural filtration and can transport pollutants. We developed a deep learning model, trained on data from 33 U.S. sites, to predict when and how fast this PF occurs based on precipitation, soil, and climate data. The model showed that precipitation characteristics (duration, intensity, volume) were the most important predictors of PF. Lower soil sand content/higher clay content was associated with faster water flow, likely due to clay soils forming aggregates and cracks that water moves through rather than infiltrating uniformly. Further analyses based on climate projections suggest that the speed at which PF occurs will become more rapid under future climate scenarios compared to historical simulation. This highlights the need to represent PF in soil water models when assessing future water quality. Key Points The effect of precipitation peak intensity on soil water velocities declined with increasing precipitation intensity Antecedent soil moisture failed to predict preferential flow (PF), contrasting the high predictive power of sand content Climate predictions suggest that soil water velocities through PF paths will increase ∼15% by 2099

Li, Bonan↗

Microwave Plasma Flash Pyrolysis for Coal-to-Product Applications

Since 2010, the US coal industry has experienced a precipitous decline, with coal production volumes dropping by as much as 35% according to EIA. This decline is hardly surprising given that 90% of domestic coal use is allocated to electricity production: While coal generation supplied about 45% of the nation's power in 2010, its share is projected to fall to only 22% in 2020. Fortunately, alternative uses for coal as a feedstock rather than as energy source are available. Coal tar is an established feedstock for chemicals and high-value carbon products including carbon fiber and battery-grade graphites. At present, growth of these uses is constrained by the low availability, purity, and yields of currently available coal liquids, and high energy- and CO2-intensity of current methods of production (i.e. coking). Previously reported work conducted in a partnership with Pacific Northwest National Laboratory demonstrated technical and economic viability of flash pyrolysis of coal in a microwave plasma environment at bench scales targeting production of fuel feedstocks (synthetic oil). H Quest’s work since then indicated promise of microwave-derived coal liquids to be uniquely suited for the lower-cost production of carbon materials, including synthetic graphite, carbon fiber, and composites. Low bulk process temperatures, subsecond residence times, and ambient pressure operation enable small-scale deployment, reduce capital and operating costs, and suppress formation of impurities, including QI material, typical in conventional coal tars. With no inherent production of CO2 or water consumption, microwave plasma flash pyrolysis presents a viable route to the sustainable production of both platform chemicals and carbon-based materials. Most recently, H Quest developed a novel, ruggedized microwave plasma reactor, which departs from the proof-of-concept approach and addresses the problems typically encountered in scaling laboratory microwave plasma apparata (e.g. eliminating fragile quartz enclosures prone to coking and fouling). This reactor has been integrated with a 15kW microwave power supply, a pulverized coal injection system, and a product recovery system. A series of screening tests across a range of coals (including hv-, lv-bituminous and subbituminous PRB), entrainment gas flows and compositions and microwave energy inputs are performed to evaluate conversion rates within the novel, scaled-up system, confirm yields of liquid products, and to perform compositional (GC/MS and elemental) analyses of the products. Results of these tests will be presented and discussed.

Skoptsov, George↗

Accuracy of Tau Positron Emission Tomography as a Prognostic Marker in Preclinical and Prodromal Alzheimer Disease: A Head-to-Head Comparison Against Amyloid Positron Emission Tomography and Magnetic Resonance Imaging

Importance: Tau positron emission tomography (PET) tracers have proven useful for the differential diagnosis of dementia, but their utility for predicting cognitive change is unclear. Objective: To examine the prognostic accuracy of baseline fluorine 18 ( 18 F)-flortaucipir and [18F]RO948 (tau) PET in individuals across the Alzheimer disease (AD) clinical spectrum and to perform a head-to-head comparison against established magnetic resonance imaging (MRI) and amyloid PET markers. Design, setting, and participants: This prognostic study collected data from 8 cohorts in South Korea, Sweden, and the US from June 1, 2014, to February 28, 2021, with a mean (SD) follow-up of 1.9 (0.8) years. A total of 1431 participants were recruited from memory clinics, clinical trials, or cohort studies; 673 were cognitively unimpaired (CU group; 253 [37.6%] positive for amyloid-β [Aβ]), 443 had mild cognitive impairment (MCI group; 271 [61.2%] positive for Aβ), and 315 had a clinical diagnosis of AD dementia (315 [100%] positive for Aβ). Exposures: [ 18 F]Flortaucipir PET in the discovery cohort (n = 1135) or [ 18 F]RO948 PET in the replication cohort (n = 296), T1-weighted MRI (n = 1431), and amyloid PET (n = 1329) at baseline and repeated Mini-Mental State Examination (MMSE) evaluation. Main outcomes and measures: Baseline [ 18 F]flortaucipir/[ 18 F]RO948 PET retention within a temporal region of interest, MRI-based AD-signature cortical thickness, and amyloid PET Centiloids were used to predict changes in MMSE using linear mixed-effects models adjusted for age, sex, education, and cohort. Mediation/interaction analyses tested whether associations between baseline tau PET and cognitive change were mediated by baseline MRI measures and whether age, sex, and APOE genotype modified these associations. Results: Among 1431 participants, the mean (SD) age was 71.2 (8.8) years; 751 (52.5%) were male. Findings for [ 18 F]flortaucipir PET predicted longitudinal changes in MMSE, and effect sizes were stronger than for AD-signature cortical thickness and amyloid PET across all participants (R 2 , 0.35 [tau PET] vs 0.24 [MRI] vs 0.17 [amyloid PET]; P < .001, bootstrapped for difference) in the Aβ-positive MCI group (R2, 0.25 [tau PET] vs 0.15 [MRI] vs 0.07 [amyloid PET]; P < .001, bootstrapped for difference) and in the Aβ-positive CU group (R 2 , 0.16 [tau PET] vs 0.08 [MRI] vs 0.08 [amyloid PET]; P < .001, bootstrapped for difference). These findings were replicated in the [ 18 F]RO948 PET cohort. MRI mediated the association between [ 18 F]flortaucipir PET and MMSE in the groups with AD dementia (33.4% [95% CI, 15.5%-60.0%] of the total effect) and Aβ-positive MCI (13.6% [95% CI, 0.0%-28.0%] of the total effect), but not the Aβ-positive CU group (3.7% [95% CI, -17.5% to 39.0%]; P = .71). Age (t = -2.28; P = .02), but not sex (t = 0.92; P = .36) or APOE genotype (t = 1.06; P = .29) modified the association between baseline [ 18 F]flortaucipir PET and cognitive change, such that older individuals showed faster cognitive decline at similar tau PET levels. Conclusions and relevance: The findings of this prognostic study suggest that tau PET is a promising tool for predicting cognitive change that is superior to amyloid PET and MRI and may support the prognostic process in preclinical and prodromal stages of AD.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Findings on Subtask 3.1 - Bakken Rich Gas Enhanced Oil Recovery Project

Total in-place oil for the Bakken petroleum system (BPS) (which includes the Bakken and Three Forks Formations) has been estimated to be 600 billion barrels (bbl). However, BPS wells have decline rates as high as 85% over the first 3 years of their lives, and primary recovery factors typically range from 3% to 10% of original oil in place. Given the low initial recovery rates, even small incremental productivity improvements could dramatically increase technically recoverable oil in the BPS. One potential solution is enhanced oil recovery (EOR) using gas injection, such as carbon dioxide (CO2) or hydrocarbon (HC) gases. While commonly used in conventional reservoirs, CO2 EOR in unconventional tight oil reservoirs has been limited to pilot tests. EOR using rich gas (mixture of methane, ethane, and propane) has also been employed in numerous pilots in several unconventional plays and has recently been successfully applied in the Eagle Ford play. If successful, large-scale gas-based EOR in the BPS could dramatically increase oil productivity and recovery factors and extend the life of the play for decades. While CO2 may be a technically suitable working fluid for EOR in the BPS, supplies are limited and costs for using CO2 in EOR pilots are prohibitively high. Meanwhile, produced gas flaring has presented challenges for BPS operators in North Dakota. Analysis conducted by the North Dakota Pipeline Authority indicates that the current gas-gathering infrastructure in North Dakota is insufficient to accommodate all of the associated gas that is produced from the BPS. The geographically isolated location of North Dakota relative to large natural gas markets, combined with suppressed natural gas prices, has made it economically challenging for industry to invest capital in expanding gas-gathering infrastructure in the state. These circumstances led to a research program conducted by the Energy & Environmental Research Center (EERC) in partnership with Liberty Resources Management Company LLC (LR) to examine the potential to use rich gas injection for EOR and mitigate flaring. A rich gas EOR pilot test was designed and executed by LR at its Stomping Horse development area in Williams County, North Dakota. From July 2018 through May 2019, a total of 160 million standard cubic feet (MMscf) of rich produced gas was injected into the BPS using five different wells in a sequential injection strategy. LR’s Leon–Gohrick drill spacing unit (DSU) was used as the test site. Regulatory oversight was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission (NDIC). Technical support was provided by the EERC through a series of laboratory, modeling, and field-based activities, and additional post-pilot research activities incorporated learnings from the test, developed new laboratory data, improved fracture modeling methods, and developed machine learning and big data analytics. The results from the Stomping Horse rich gas EOR pilot activities indicate that developing an effective, economical EOR approach for the BPS will require more field tests. Another key lesson learned from the Stomping Horse tests is that detailed pre- and posttest data on reservoir conditions and fluids production are essential. Robust reservoir characterization provides information that is crucial to creating realistic geomodels and conducting valid dynamic simulations of potential EOR scenarios. A detailed understanding of the completions and production history of offset wells is also necessary for valid test result interpretations. This knowledge is essential to designing the operational parameters of injectivity tests and interpreting the results. A conformance control strategy is also essential to success. Laboratory-based examinations of rich gas interactions with reservoir fluids and rocks were conducted, with an emphasis on determining the ability to mobilize oil in the tight reservoir rocks and shales of the BPS. Injection fluid composition was shown to have a positive impact on reducing reservoir oil minimum miscibility pressure (MMP), reducing interfacial tension (IFT), and altering wettability. IFT and contact angle measurements demonstrated that wettability can be altered in the presence of rich gas, suggesting the potential to improve oil recovery. Iterative modeling of surface infrastructure and reservoir performance using data generated by the various project activities was conducted. A geologic model of the Stomping Horse area was built; history-matched oil, gas, and water production was used in simulations of various EOR scenarios. Early programmatic modeling results were used to support LR’s design and operation of the EOR pilot and to provide insight regarding optimization of future commercial-scale BPS EOR design and operations. Post-pilot modeling focused on alternative methods of understanding complex fracture networks and accelerating simulation time. These led to improved simulation run times and provide excellent history-matching results. Several of these iterative models were used as the bases for developing algorithms into machine learning and big data analytics. History matching in reservoir simulation is time-consuming and computer processing-intensive. Machine learning algorithms were created, and an automated history-matching tool was developed. A large set of synthetic reservoir simulations were created to generate well responses (oil, gas, and water production, well bottomhole pressure [BHP], and tracer or propane breakthrough) for a set of EOR operating parameters that included offset well status (open or closed), injectate (rich gas or propane), injection rate, and injection well BHP. A user interface was developed to provide real-time visualization. Machine learning-based models were developed to provide rapid forecasting of well performance given a set of user-defined EOR operating parameters. These predictive models allow the user to modify the offset well status, injection rate, and injection well BHP and rapidly forecast future production performance. The combination of real-time visualization tools with real-time forecasting tools provides a framework for real-time control—operational changes that the EOR site operator can enact (e.g., changing gas injection rates) to affect the observed performance and potentially improve the EOR outcome. There is great reason to be optimistic about the future of EOR in the Bakken. The results of the laboratory studies suggest significant potential for high rates of oil mobilization using produced field gas injection under the right conditions. The results of the lab studies, combined with rigorous statistical analysis of well production data and associated modeling efforts, confirm the notion that fluid mobility within the reservoir is controlled by fractures. As more knowledge is gained about the nature and distribution of fracture networks in the Bakken, the industry will be in a better position to predict and, ultimately, influence fluid mobility. New field tests are necessary to develop a more complete understanding of those conditions. Thoughtful and creatively engineered field tests within a well-characterized geologic setting will yield the fundamental knowledge needed to take Bakken oil production to the next level. This subtask was cofunded through the EERC–U.S. Department of Energy Joint Program on Research and Development for Fossil Energy-Related Resources Cooperative Agreement No. DE-FE0024233. Nonfederal funding was provided by the North Dakota Industrial Commission’s Oil and Gas Research Program and Computer Modelling Group.

04 OIL SHALES AND TAR SANDS↗