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At least 289 records · Page 16

Probabilistic Programming for Transportable Source Characterization and Uncertainty Quantification of the North Korean Nuclear Tests 2006–2017

Here, we introduce a transportable technique to determine the yield and depth of burial (DOB) from seismic source spectra of underground nuclear explosions. We demonstrate this technique on the six declared North Korean nuclear tests. This approach derives source spectra in absolute units from regional phase (Pg) amplitudes by correcting the observations for geometric spreading, attenuation, and site amplification. We couple the source spectra and explosion source models with a probabilistic programming framework that integrates deep learning techniques and Bayesian modeling. This approach permits the exchange of information across various data categories to quantify both the data and model uncertainty. This technique stands out as an innovative use of broad‐area propagation models, making it transportable across various geologic settings. This method proves to be effective in scenarios with diverse and/or limited observational data, even when the source depth is unknown. We present new independent estimates of absolute yield and DOB that are consistent with the prior assessments, underscoring the potential of this method in enhancing transportable nuclear explosion monitoring capabilities.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Pore-scale visualization of natural hydrate-bearing sediments

Accurate modeling of gas hydrate reservoir productivity and geomechanical risks associated with subsurface dissociation of natural gas hydrates (NGH) requires the determination of model parameters through physical testing on natural hydrate-bearing sediments (HBS). This involves investigating the hydro-mechanical behavior of undisturbed hydrate samples from nature under in situ conditions using pressure core characterization and analysis, which provides a unique opportunity for research. By employing state-of-the-art micro computed tomography imagery on cryogenically preserved, hydrate-bearing sediment samples, we can determine hydrate saturation as well as permeability with and without the presence of hydrates in the sediment. Furthermore, utilizing a machine learning based image segmentation technique, it is possible to extract pore space and grain information. Subsections of the entire image volume were used to determine anisotropic permeabilities using a finite-difference method Stokes solver (FDMSS). Additionally, permeability measurements on whole pressure and temperature preserved hydrate-bearing core were analyzed by utilizing the National Energy Technology Laboratory’s (NETL) Pressure Core Characterization and X-ray CT Visualization Tool (PCXT) to manipulate, cut, and analyze pressure preserved sediment. Permeabilities were measured under a broad range of vertical stress states to simulate expected pressure changes during production scenarios, and the results show that permeabilities derived from images are in agreement with those from traditional core derived experiments. The collected stress-dependent permeability, permeability anisotropy, and corresponding gas hydrate saturations provide valuable input into numerical simulations of reservoir productivity. These properties have been proven to be key parameters determining a long-term reservoir response under depressurization.

Liu, Mengwei [Oak Ridge Institute for Science and ↗

Decayheatml

This code is designed to predict and analyze the decay heat generated in molten salt reactors (MSRs) using a hybrid approach that combines machine learning and segmented polynomial fitting. The accurate prediction of decay heat is essential for reactor safety and the optimization of spent fuel storage. The code operates through several key components: 1) Data Architecture: It incorporates a modular data architecture that handles various MSR-specific operational parameters such as power density, humidity content, and air ingress. These parameters are sampled using Sobol sequences to ensure comprehensive coverage of operational uncertainties. 2) Machine Learning Framework: The code employs a diverse set of machine learning models, including polynomial regression, decision trees, random forests, gradient boosting, support vector regression, k-nearest neighbors, multi-layer perceptrons, and symbolic regression. These models are trained to predict decay heat over a wide temporal range, from immediate shutdown up to 10,000 years. 3) Region-Optimized Training: The temporal domain is divided into multiple regions, each modeled separately to capture distinct decay heat characteristics across different time scales. This approach significantly improves the accuracy and interpretability of predictions. 4) Segmented Polynomial Interpretation (SPI): The SPI method translates machine learning predictions into piecewise polynomial equations. These equations are physically interpretable and can be directly integrated into existing engineering workflows and safety analyses. 5) Front-End Interfaces: The code includes both a Jupyter notebook interface for research development and a Streamlit web application for operational deployment. These interfaces allow users to interactively explore decay heat predictions, adjust operational parameters, and visualize results in real-time. 6) Applications: The framework supports various applications, including safety system validation and spent fuel container optimization. It enables real-time evaluation of worst-case decay heat scenarios, informing the design of passive safety systems and optimizing container designs for long-term storage. Overall, this code provides a robust, accurate, and user-friendly tool for predicting decay heat in MSRs, enhancing reactor safety, and optimizing spent fuel management.

Retamales, Mauricio Eduardo Tano [Idaho National L↗

Progressive transfer learning for advancing machine learning-based reduced-order modeling

Abstract To maximize knowledge transfer and improve the data requirement for data-driven machine learning (ML) modeling, a progressive transfer learning for reduced-order modeling (p-ROM) framework is proposed. A key concept of p-ROM is to selectively transfer knowledge from previously trained ML models and effectively develop a new ML model(s) for unseen tasks by optimizing information gates in hidden layers. The p-ROM framework is designed to work with any type of data-driven ROMs. For demonstration purposes, we evaluate the p-ROM with specific Barlow Twins ROMs (p-BT-ROMs) to highlight how progress learning can apply to multiple topological and physical problems with an emphasis on a small training set regime. The proposed p-BT-ROM framework has been tested using multiple examples, including transport, flow, and solid mechanics, to illustrate the importance of progressive knowledge transfer and its impact on model accuracy with reduced training samples. In both similar and different topologies, p-BT-ROM achieves improved model accuracy with much less training data. For instance, p-BT-ROM with four-parent (i.e., pre-trained models) outperforms the no-parent counterpart trained on data nine times larger. The p-ROM framework is poised to significantly enhance the capabilities of ML-based ROM approaches for scientific and engineering applications by mitigating data scarcity through progressively transferring knowledge.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

TaTi_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution binary alloys tantalum-titanium (Ta-Ti). The electronic structures of alloys have been calculated using Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP). Within this package the DFT approach is used to reduce many-body Schrodinger equation to set of single particle Kohn-Sham (KS) equations. The generalized electronic exchange-correlation functional is described by generalized gradient approximation with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization. The electron-ion interactions is described by pseudopotentials developed within the plane-wave basis projector augmented-wave (PAW) approach. These pseudopotentials are available at the VASP portal (http://cms.mpi.univie.ac.at/vasp/). Our calculations have been run with the pseudopotentials treating s and p semi-core states as valence in case for the elements Hf and Nb. The electronic densities and potentials are expanded over plane-waves with energy cutoff of 350 eV. 2x2x2 k-mesh and normal precision were used. The alloys were modeled by supercell containing 128 randomly distributed atoms. At initial step the atoms occupy perfect bcc lattice cites. This initial structure was optimized until energy changes less than 1e-6 eV, while forces acting on atoms don't exceed 1e-2 eV/angstrom. The electron-ion interaction is described by PAW pseudopotentials. The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 4. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 3,100 randomized atomic structures over 31 chemical compositions. The calculations have been collected on Air Force HPC11 cluster using the VASP 6.5.1. Additional methodology and file structure information is available in the dataset README.txt file.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Symbolic diagnostics to interpret and analyze neural network models

Embedded machine-learned models (EMLMs) have the promise to improve the predictive accuracy of engineering simulators in environments of national interest. EMLMs often comprise complex input-output maps (e.g., neural networks), which make them unamenable to rigorous analysis and generally difficult to interpret. In the face of decades of theory, this lack of interpretability is a significant barrier to building confidence in these models. This work outlines an approach to interpret EMLMs using sparse polynomial regression for comparison with theoretical understanding. To do so, we build on the concept of Locally Interpretable Model-agnostic Explanations (LIME) using physics-informed clustering, prototype selection, and library construction. While general, we demonstrate our method on tensor-basis neural networks used in Reynolds-Averaged Navier-Stokes simulations of hypersonic fluid flows. Results are presented for a simulated toy model and for direct numerical simulations (DNS) of turbulent flows over a flat plate.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Constrained or unconstrained? Neural-network-based equation discovery from data

Throughout many fields, practitioners often rely on differential equations to model systems. Yet, for many applications, the theoretical derivation of such equations and/or the accurate resolution of their solutions may be intractable. Instead, recently developed methods, including those based on parameter estimation, operator subset selection, and neural networks, allow for the data-driven discovery of both ordinary and partial differential equations (PDEs), on a spectrum of interpretability. The success of these strategies is often contingent upon the correct identification of representative equations from noisy observations of state variables and, as importantly and intertwined with that, the mathematical strategies utilized to enforce those equations. Specifically, the latter has been commonly addressed via unconstrained optimization strategies. Representing the PDE as a neural network, we propose to discover the PDE (or the associated operator) by solving a constrained optimization problem and using an intermediate state representation similar to a physics-informed neural network (PINN). The objective function of this constrained optimization problem promotes matching the data, while the constraints require that the discovered PDE is satisfied at a number of spatial collocation points. We present a penalty method and a widely used trust-region barrier method to solve this constrained optimization problem, and we compare these methods on numerical examples. Our results on several example problems demonstrate that the latter constrained method outperforms the penalty method, particularly for higher noise levels or fewer collocation points. This work motivates further exploration into using sophisticated constrained optimization methods in scientific machine learning, as opposed to their commonly used, penalty-method or unconstrained counterparts. For both of these methods, we solve these discovered neural network PDEs with classical methods, such as finite difference methods, as opposed to PINNs-type methods relying on automatic differentiation. Here, we briefly highlight how simultaneously fitting the data while discovering the PDE improves the robustness to noise and other small, yet crucial, implementation details.

Data-driven discovery↗

Unraveling fundamental mechanisms of silicon nitride crystallization in microelectronics manufacturing

This research project investigates the fundamental mechanisms of silicon nitride (SiN) crystallization, aiming to enhance the understanding of this critical material in microelectronics manufacturing. Through a collaborative effort between Sandia National Laboratories, the University of Tennessee, and the University of Florida, we developed a comprehensive framework that integrates experimental techniques, atomistic modeling, meso-scale simulations, and an integrated multi-scale model to capture this physical phenomenon on multiple time and length scales . The project developed a new machine learning based atomistic potential and utilized advanced phase field modeling to capture the complexities of polycrystalline growth and the influence of mechanical stresses on crystallization dynamics. By employing a grain tracker algorithm, the meso-scale model effectively identified and tracked individual crystal grains, enabling the simulation of anisotropic growth behaviors reflective of SiN’s physical properties. The integration of atomistic simulations with meso-scale modeling created a powerful multi-scale framework that validated atomistic inputs and enhanced predictive accuracy for crystallization dynamics at larger scales, validated experimentally. This adaptable modeling capability not only accelerates development times by informing manufacturing processes but also serves as a valuable starting point for understanding crystallization physics in similar materials. The insights gained from this research unlock new opportunities for the development of advanced materials tailored for future microelectronics and photonics applications. Overall, this project represents a significant advancement in understanding of fundamental physics of SiN and establishes a foundation for future research in material science, bridging the gap between atomic-level phenomena and macroscopic material behaviors for practical applications.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

SIM_EXPLORE: Software for Directed Exploration of Complex Systems

Physics-based numerical simulation codes are widely used in science and engineering to model complex systems that would be infeasible to study otherwise. While such codes may provide the highest- fidelity representation of system behavior, they are often so slow to run that insight into the system is limited. Trying to understand the effects of inputs on outputs by conducting an exhaustive grid-based sweep over the input parameter space is simply too time-consuming. An alternative approach called "directed exploration" has been developed to harvest information from numerical simulators more efficiently. The basic idea is to employ active learning and supervised machine learning to choose cleverly at each step which simulation trials to run next based on the results of previous trials. SIM_EXPLORE is a new computer program that uses directed exploration to explore efficiently complex systems represented by numerical simulations. The software sequentially identifies and runs simulation trials that it believes will be most informative given the results of previous trials. The results of new trials are incorporated into the software's model of the system behavior. The updated model is then used to pick the next round of new trials. This process, implemented as a closed-loop system wrapped around existing simulation code, provides a means to improve the speed and efficiency with which a set of simulations can yield scientifically useful results. The software focuses on the case in which the feedback from the simulation trials is binary-valued, i.e., the learner is only informed of the success or failure of the simulation trial to produce a desired output. The software offers a number of choices for the supervised learning algorithm (the method used to model the system behavior given the results so far) and a number of choices for the active learning strategy (the method used to choose which new simulation trials to run given the current behavior model). The software also makes use of the LEGION distributed computing framework to leverage the power of a set of compute nodes. The approach has been demonstrated on a planetary science application in which numerical simulations are used to study the formation of asteroid families.

Burl, Michael↗

Toward an event-level analysis of hadron structure using differential programming

Reconstructing the internal properties of hadrons in terms of fundamental quark and gluon de- grees of freedom is a central goal in nuclear and particle physics. This effort lies at the core of major experimental programs, such as the Jefferson Lab 12 GeV program and the upcoming Electron-Ion Collider. A primary challenge is the inherent inverse problem: converting large-scale observational data from collision events into the fundamental QCD-defined densities that characterize the micro- scopic structure of hadronic systems. Recent advances in AI and machine learning have opened new avenues for addressing this challenge using deep learning techniques. A particularly promising direction is the integration of complex theoretical calculations and experimental simulations into a unified framework capable of reconstructing these densities directly from event-level information. In this document, we introduce a key algorithm called LOITS, which enables differentiable program- ming within such a framework, facilitating the use of AI/ML techniques to solve the inverse problem of QCF reconstruction at the event level.

Braga, Kevin [College of William and Mary, William↗

Opportunities in AI/ML for the Rubin LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration

The Vera C. Rubin Observatory's Legacy Survey of Space and Time (LSST) will produce unprecedented volumes of heterogeneous astronomical data (images, catalogs, and alerts) that challenge traditional analysis pipelines. The LSST Dark Energy Science Collaboration (DESC) aims to derive robust constraints on dark energy and dark matter from these data, requiring methods that are statistically powerful, scalable, and operationally reliable. Artificial intelligence and machine learning (AI/ML) are already embedded across DESC science workflows, from photometric redshifts and transient classification to weak lensing inference and cosmological simulations. Yet their utility for precision cosmology hinges on trustworthy uncertainty quantification, robustness to covariate shift and model misspecification, and reproducible integration within scientific pipelines. This white paper surveys the current landscape of AI/ML across DESC's primary cosmological probes and cross-cutting analyses, revealing that the same core methodologies and fundamental challenges recur across disparate science cases. Since progress on these cross-cutting challenges would benefit multiple probes simultaneously, we identify key methodological research priorities, including Bayesian inference at scale, physics-informed methods, validation frameworks, and active learning for discovery. With an eye on emerging techniques, we also explore the potential of the latest foundation model methodologies and LLM-driven agentic AI systems to reshape DESC workflows, provided their deployment is coupled with rigorous evaluation and governance. Finally, we discuss critical software, computing, data infrastructure, and human capital requirements for the successful deployment of these new methodologies, and consider associated risks and opportunities for broader coordination with external actors.

Aubourg, Eric [APC, Paris] (ORCID:000000025592023X↗

Power modeling of degraded PV systems: Case studies using a dynamically updated physical model (PV-Pro)

Power modeling, widely applied for health monitoring and power prediction, is crucial for the efficiency and reliability of Photovoltaic (PV) systems. The most common approach for power modeling uses a physical equivalent circuit model, with the core challenge being the estimation of model parameters. Traditional parameter estimation either relies on datasheet information, which does not reflect the system's current health status, especially for degraded PV systems, or requires additional I-V characterization, which is generally unavailable for large-scale PV systems. Thus, we build upon our previously developed tool, PV-Pro (originally proposed for degradation analysis), to enhance its application for power modeling of degraded PV systems. PV-Pro extracts model parameters from production data without requiring I-V characterization. This dynamic model, periodically updated, can closely capture the actual degradation status, enabling precise power modeling. PV-Pro is compared with popular power modeling techniques, including persistence, nominal physical, and various machine learning models. The results indicate that PV-Pro achieves outstanding power modeling performance, with an average nMAE of 1.4 % across four field-degraded PV systems, reducing error by 17.6 % compared to the best alternative technique. Furthermore, PV-Pro demonstrates robustness across different seasons and severities of degradation. The tool is available as a Python package at https://github.com/DuraMAT/pvpro.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

NbTi_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution binary alloys niobium-titanium (Nb-Ti). The electronic structures of alloys have been calculated using Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP), https://github.com/ORNL/ScalableWorkflow_VASP_Calculations. Within this package the DFT approach is used to reduce many-body Schrodinger equation to set of single particle Kohn-Sham (KS) equations. The generalized electronic exchange-correlation functional is described by generalized gradient approximation with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization. The electron-ion interactions is described by pseudopotentials developed within the plane-wave basis projector augmented-wave (PAW) approach. These pseudopotentials are available at the VASP portal (http://cms.mpi.univie.ac.at/vasp/). Our calculations have been run with the pseudopotentials treating s and p semi-core states as valence in case for the elements Nb and Ti. The electronic densities and potentials are expanded over plane-waves with energy cutoff of 350 eV. 2x2x2 k-mesh and normal precision were used. The alloys were modeled by supercell containing 128 randomly distributed atoms. At initial step the atoms occupy perfect bcc lattice cites. This initial structure was optimized until energy changes less than 1e-6 eV, while forces acting on atoms don't exceed 1e-2 eV/angstrom. The electron-ion interaction is described by PAW pseudopotentials. The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 4. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 3,100 randomized atomic structures over 31 chemical compositions. The calculations have been collected on Air Force HPC11 cluster using the VASP 6.5.1. Additional methodology and file structure information is available in the dataset README.txt file.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

HfTa_BCC_SolidSolution_128atoms_VASP6

We performed density functional theory (DFT) calculations for body-centered-cubic (BCC) structures with 128 lattices sites of solid solution binary alloys hafnium-tantalum (Hf-Ta). The electronic structures of alloys have been calculated using Vienna Ab initio Simulation Package (VASP). Within this package the DFT approach is used to reduce many-body Schrodinger equation to set of single particle Kohn-Sham (KS) equations. The generalized electronic exchange-correlation functional is described by generalized gradient approximation with the Perdew-Burke-Ernzerhof parametrization. The electron-ion interactions is described by pseudopotentials developed within the plane-wave basis projector augmented-wave (PAW) approach. These pseudopotentials are available at the VASP portal (http://cms.mpi.univie.ac.at/vasp/). Our calculations have been run with the pseudopotentials treating s and p semi-core states as valence in case for the elements Hf and Ta. The electronic densities and potentials are expanded over plane-waves with energy cutoff of 350 eV. 2x2x2 k-mesh and normal precision were used. The alloys were modeled by supercell containing 128 randomly distributed atoms. At initial step the atoms occupy perfect BCC lattice sites. This initial structure was optimized until energy changes less than 1e-6 eV, while forces acting on atoms don't exceed 1e-2 eV/angstrom. The electron-ion interaction is described by PAW pseudopotentials. The calculations have been collected by sampling chemical compositions across the entire compositional range. The chemical compositions have been sampled by progressively changing the number of atoms per constituent by 4. For each chemical composition of binaries and ternaries, the first-principle calculations have been run for 100 randomized arrangements of the constituents on the BCC lattice sites. We collected data for a total of 3,040 randomized atomic structures over 31 chemical compositions. Further methodological and structural information is contained in the dataset README.txt file.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Graph theory inspired anomaly detection at the LHC

Designing model-independent anomaly detection algorithms for analyzing LHC data remains a central challenge in the search for new physics, due to the high dimensionality of collider events. In this work, we develop a graph autoencoder as an unsupervised, model-agnostic tool for anomaly detection, using the LHC Olympics dataset as a benchmark. By representing jet constituents as a graph, we introduce a method to systematically control the information available to the model through sparse graph constructions that serve as physically motivated inductive biases. Specifically, (1) we construct graph autoencoders based on locally rigid Laman graphs and globally rigid unique graphs, and (2) we explore the clustering of jet constituents into subjets to interpolate between high- and low-level input representations. We obtain the best performance, measured in terms of the Significance Improvement Characteristic curve for an intermediate level of subjet clustering and certain sparse unique graph constructions. We further investigate the role of graph connectivity in jet classification tasks. Our results demonstrate the potential of leveraging graph-theoretic insights to refine and increase the interpretability of machine learning tools for collider experiments.

Automation↗

Active learning of ternary alloy structures and energies

Abstract Machine learning models with uncertainty quantification have recently emerged as attractive tools to accelerate the navigation of catalyst design spaces in a data-efficient manner. Here, we combine active learning with a dropout graph convolutional network (dGCN) as a surrogate model to explore the complex materials space of high-entropy alloys (HEAs). We train the dGCN on the formation energies of disordered binary alloy structures in the Pd-Pt-Sn ternary alloy system and improve predictions on ternary structures by performing reduced optimization of the formation free energy, the target property that determines HEA stability, over ensembles of ternary structures constructed based on two coordinate systems: (a) a physics-informed ternary composition space, and (b) data-driven coordinates discovered by the Diffusion Maps manifold learning scheme. Both reduced optimization techniques improve predictions of the formation free energy in the ternary alloy space with a significantly reduced number of DFT calculations compared to a high-fidelity model. The physics-based scheme converges to the target property in a manner akin to a depth-first strategy, whereas the data-driven scheme appears more akin to a breadth-first approach. Both sampling schemes, coupled with our acquisition function, successfully exploit a database of DFT-calculated binary alloy structures and energies, augmented with a relatively small number of ternary alloy calculations, to identify stable ternary HEA compositions and structures. This generalized framework can be extended to incorporate more complex bulk and surface structural motifs, and the results demonstrate that significant dimensionality reduction is possible in thermodynamic sampling problems when suitable active learning schemes are employed.

Chemistry↗

Metrics and extrapolation of resonant magnetic perturbation thresholds for ELM suppression

This large database study of resonant magnetic perturbation (RMP) edge localized mode (ELM) suppression thresholds in the AUG, DIII-D, EAST, and KSTAR tokamaks details the key strengths and weaknesses of RMP metrics. The RMP ELM suppression database used for this work contains plasma information at the time of transition from ELMing to ELM suppressed states where a clear experimental threshold is identified. The experimental threshold distributions are compared for five metrics: (1) the island overlap width, (2) pedestal top Chirikov overlap, (3) peeling edge displacement, (4) pedestal top resonant drive, and (5) edge dominant mode overlap. The distributions, the regularity of the dependence on RMP coil currents, and the sensitivities of a given metric to equilibrium reconstruction details are compared. The overlap metric proves to be a good compromise between including the appropriate plasma response physics and maintaining a numerical robustness. This quantity does not exhibit clear power-law scalings for projection, but machine learning can assist in predicting thresholds within the existing parameter ranges and providing uncertainty quantification of those predictions. Two new first-principles models, one utilizing a threshold from the non-linear Modified Rutherford equation evaluated at the pedestal top and one utilizing the SLAYER code to calculate the linear tearing threshold from torque balance, offer possible paths to extrapolation beyond the existing database parameter space.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗