SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “simulators”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

SourceResearch connectionFrom yearThrough year

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 289 records · Page 16

All sources NASA NTRS DOE OSTI

DOE OSTI2026

A hybrid Penman-Monteith and machine learning model for simulating evapotranspiration and its components

Integrating physical processes with machine learning has advanced evapotranspiration (ET) simulation, yet most hybrid models fail to partition total ET into its components: soil evaporation (E) and vegetation transpiration (T). This study introduces Residual Neural Network–Penman–Monteith (RNN-PM), a novel hybrid dual-source ET model designed to overcome this limitation. The model synergizes the physically-based Penman–Monteith framework with three specialized residual neural networks trained to estimate key conductance parameters (canopy conductance, soil surface conductance, and aerodynamic conductance). Furthermore this explicit parameterization allows for the direct partitioning of total ET. Validation at National Ecological Observatory Network (NEON) flux sites using high-frequency partitioned E and T shows that RNN-PM reliably reproduces ET and the transpiration fraction (T/ET). For ET, the model achieves an average Kling–Gupta efficiency (KGE) of 0.89 and a root-mean-square error (RMSE) of 0.55 mm/day; for T/ET, the KGE is 0.87 with an RMSE of 0.06. Furthermore, RNN-PM demonstrates robust generalization, accurately simulating ET and its components well beyond the initial training dataset, even under extreme climatic conditions. This study extended the analysis by comparing the RNN-PM model with seven established dual-source ET models. The results indicate that RNN-PM outperforms both conventional machine learning models and purely physical process-based models in simulating ET components in most cases. Among the purely physical process-based dual-source models, those based on surface temperature decomposition showed improved performance as the leaf area index (LAI) decreased when evaluated against high-frequency ET component datasets. In contrast, the performance of conductance-based dual-source models declined with decreasing LAI. Although purely machine learning-based models can produce relatively accurate simulations of ET components, they often exhibit limited generalization capability, an issue that the RNN-PM model effectively overcomes. Ultimately, the RNN-PM model represents a significant advance in simulating ET components, offering a novel and scalable approach for improving the representation of land–atmosphere interactions in Earth system models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Kernel fusion in atomistic spin dynamics simulations on Nvidia GPUs using tensor core

In atomistic spin dynamics simulations, the time cost of constructing the space- and time-displaced pair correlation function in real space increases quadratically as the number of spins N, leading to significant computational effort. The GEMM subroutine can be adopted to accelerate the calculation of the dynamical spin-spin correlation function, but the computational cost of simulating large spin systems (>40000 spins) on CPUs remains expensive. In this work, we perform the simulation on the graphics processing unit (GPU), a hardware solution widely used as an accelerator for scientific computing and deep learning. Here we show that GPUs can accelerate the simulation up to 25-fold compared to multi-core CPUs when using the GEMM subroutine on both. To hide memory latency, we fuse the element-wise operation into the GEMM kernel using CUTLASS that can improve the performance by 26% ~ 33% compared to implementation based on cuBLAS. Furthermore, we perform the on-the-fly calculation in the epilogue of the GEMM subroutine to avoid saving intermediate results on global memory, which makes the large-scale atomistic spin dynamics simulation feasible and affordable.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2025

Numerical simulations of three-dimensional ion crystal dynamics in a Penning trap using the fast multipole method

We simulate the dynamics, including laser cooling, of three-dimensional (3-D) ion crystals confined in a Penning trap using a newly developed molecular dynamics-like code. The numerical integration of the ions’ equations of motion is accelerated using the fast multipole method to calculate the Coulomb interaction between ions, which allows us to efficiently study large ion crystals with thousands of ions. In particular, we show that the simulation time scales linearly with ion number, rather than with the square of the ion number. By treating the ions’ absorption of photons as a Poisson process, we simulate individual photon scattering events to study laser cooling of 3-D ellipsoidal ion crystals. Initial simulations suggest that these crystals can be efficiently cooled to ultracold temperatures, aided by the mixing of the easily cooled axial motional modes with the low frequency planar modes. In our simulations of a spherical crystal of 1000 ions, the planar kinetic energy is cooled to several millikelvin in a few milliseconds while the axial kinetic energy and total potential energy are cooled even further. This suggests that 3-D ion crystals could be well suited as platforms for future quantum science experiments.

Zaris, John (ORCID:0009000196476323)↗

DOE OSTI2023

CFD Simulation of the Dosing Behavior within the Atomic Layer Deposition Feeding System

The effective operation of atomic layer deposition (ALD) feeding system is the premise of realizing specific ALD processes. In the present work, a detailed computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model of the feeding system has been developed and validated, which accounts for the roles of ALD valves and manifolds. A numerical simulation of the compressible fluid flow and heat/mass transfer within the feeding system was conducted. The dosing amounts and the spatiotemporal distributions of the precursors can be accurately predicted using the CFD model, as validated by experimental results. Different precursors, operating conditions, and structures of the feeding system were simulated and analyzed to examine the operating flexibility of the feeding system. The simulation results can be adopted as the upstream boundary conditions for simulations of the ALD process in the reaction chamber. The substrate-scale simulation indicates that the effect of the feeding system on the film deposition is highly related to the surface kinetics of ALD. The present work can serve as a guide for the development and optimization of different ALD-based processes via proper operation and even the design of the feeding system.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Practical Framework for Simulating Time-Resolved Spectroscopy Based on a Real-Time Dyson Expansion

Time-resolved spectroscopy is a powerful tool for probing electron dynamics in molecules and solids, revealing transient phenomena on subfemtosecond time scales. The interpretation of experimental results is often enhanced by parallel numerical studies, which can provide insight and validation for experimental hypotheses. However, developing a theoretical framework for simulating time-resolved spectra remains a significant challenge. The most suitable approach involves the many-body nonequilibrium Green's function formalism, which accounts for crucial dynamical many-body correlations during time evolution. While these dynamical correlations are essential for observing emergent behavior in time-resolved spectra, they also render the formalism prohibitively expensive for large-scale simulations. Substantial effort has been devoted to reducing this computational cost─through approximations and numerical techniques─while preserving the key dynamical correlations. The ultimate goal is to enable first-principles simulations of time-dependent systems ranging from small molecules to large, periodic, multidimensional solids. Here, in this perspective, we outline key challenges in developing practical simulations for time-resolved spectroscopy, with a particular focus on Green's function methodologies. We highlight a recent advancement toward a scalable framework: the real-time Dyson expansion (RT-DE) [Phys. Rev. Lett. 2024, 133, 226902]. We introduce the theoretical foundation of RT-DE and discuss strategies for improving scalability, which have already enabled simulations of system sizes beyond the reach of previous fully dynamical approaches. We conclude with an outlook on future directions for extending RT-DE to first-principles studies of dynamically correlated, nonequilibrium systems.

Reeves, Cian C. [Univ. of California, Santa Barbar↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adjusting the Energy Profile for CH–O Interactions Leads to Improved Stability of RNA Stem-Loop Structures in MD Simulations

The role of ribonucleic acid (RNA) in biology continues to grow, but insight into important aspects of RNA behavior is lacking, such as dynamic structural ensembles in different environments, how flexibility is coupled to function, and how function might be modulated by small molecule binding. In the case of proteins, much progress in these areas has been made by complementing experiments with atomistic simulations, but RNA simulation methods and force fields are less mature. It remains challenging to generate stable RNA simulations, even for small systems where well-defined, thermostable structures have been established by experiments. Further many different aspects of RNA energetics have been adjusted in force fields, seeking improvements that are transferable across a variety of RNA structural motifs. In this work, the role of weak CH···O interactions is explored, which are ubiquitous in RNA structure but have received less attention in RNA force field development. By comparing data extracted from high-resolution RNA crystal structures to energy profiles from quantum mechanics and force field calculations, it is shown that CH···O interactions are overly repulsive in the widely used Amber RNA force fields. A simple, targeted adjustment of CH···O repulsion that leaves the remainder of the force field unchanged was developed. Then, the standard and modified force fields were tested using molecular dynamics (MD) simulations with explicit water and salt, amassing over 300 μs of data for multiple RNA systems containing important features such as the presence of loops, base stacking interactions as well as canonical and noncanonical base pairing. In this work and others, standard force fields lead to reproducible unfolding of the NMR-based structures. Including a targeted CH···O adjustment in an otherwise identical protocol dramatically improves the outcome, leading to stable simulations for all RNA systems tested.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2025

Molecular Modeling and Molecular Dynamics Simulation of a Packed and Intact Bacterial Microcompartment

Bacterial microcompartments (BMCs) are protein-bound organelles found in some bacteria which encapsulate enzymes for enhanced catalytic activity. These compartments spatially sequester enzymes within semipermeable shell proteins and are packed full of enzyme cargoes and metabolites as they fulfill their function. Coupling together recent SAXS and proteomics work, it is possible to develop molecular models for these microcompartments and interrogate enzyme and metabolite dynamics within. Our primary goal of this study is to quantify the permeability of metabolite glyceraldehyde-3-phosphate (G3P) and dihydroxyacetone phosphate (DHAP) across the BMC shell through classical molecular dynamics simulation. The Haliangium ochraceum model of BMC shell (PDB: 6MZX) was used to model an intact BMC of approximately 10 million atoms. Working at this scale presented its own challenges in managing large data sets, with multiple challenges and hardware advances discussed that facilitated this work. Over approximately 750 ns of aggregate simulation, we see multiple permeation events for these metabolites that were added at high concentration through the pores present within BMC shell tiles. When compared to independent permeability estimates for the same metabolites determined through replica exchange umbrella sampling simulations, the permeabilities varied by approximately 3 orders of magnitude. Regardless, the permeability coefficients for both G3P and DHAP are highly similar and very high, such that only very small concentration gradients can be maintained across the BMC shell between the cytosol and BMC interior. The large simulation systems also facilitated comparisons for molecular diffusivity in the crowded environment within the BMC shell. By our estimates, the viscosity within a packed BMC shell is at least 10-fold higher than it would be in neat solution and is the real driver for varying permeability estimates we obtained through simulation. These findings will be used as design inputs for future bioengineering efforts to make products from BMCs, highlighting how permeable BMC shells can be.

Diffusion↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding Differences in Water Adsorption Isotherms: Structural Variations, Force Fields, and Monte Carlo Simulation Approaches

Accurate prediction of water adsorption in micro- and mesoporous materials with hydrophobic pores is essential for the design and characterization of advanced adsorbent materials for separation and energy applications. Here, we assess the reproducibility and consistency of water adsorption isotherms in two microporous all-silica MFI zeolite structures (MFI-K and MFI-O) using two different zeolite force fields and three simulation approaches: grand canonical Monte Carlo (GCMC), Gibbs ensemble Monte Carlo (GEMC), and transition matrix Monte Carlo (TMMC). We demonstrate that consistent treatment of the bulk fluid phase in GCMC and TMMC simulations is critical for reconciling isotherms across methods, and we construct simulation-based equations of state for the TIP4P water model to enable rigorous fugacity-to-pressure conversions. Large shifts in the isotherms are observed for two zeolite force fields developed using different parametrization strategies, with the GCS force field representing implicitly a defect-containing all-silica zeolite, whereas the TraPPE-zeo force field accurately represents an essentially defect-free all-silica zeolite. While water in the van Koningsveld structure of MFI exhibits a first-order phase transition and condensation-like step for adsorption near room temperature, water in the Olson structure of MFI displays continuous adsorption, attributed to differences in the adsorption free energy landscapes. Structural analysis reveals that small geometric variations, particularly Si–O–Si bond angles near the strongest adsorption sites, lead to these substantial differences in adsorption behavior. Furthermore, our results highlight the sensitivity of simulated water adsorption isotherms in hydrophobic frameworks to seemingly small differences in the framework structures, force field parametrization, and simulation approaches.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Microstructure, Transport, and Mechanics of Compacted Clay Simulated at the 0.1 μm Scale (1400 Smectite Clay Particles) Using a Coarse-Grained Model with Explicit Counterions

Clay-rich geomaterials play a critical role in many subsurface systems. The macroscale properties of these materials (low permeability, high ionic conductivity, high swelling pressure, etc.) are sensitive to molecular-level adsorption and hydration interactions at clay−water interfaces. Efforts to develop multiscale simulation approaches to predict these properties reveal a scale gap between atomistic simulations (typically limited to systems smaller than 10 nm) and continuum-scale models (which use computational grid elements with dimensions ≳ 10 μm). In this study, we present a coarse-grained (CG) framework that partly bridges this gap by simulating compacted smectite clay assemblages with dimensions of 0.1 μm containing 1,400 clay particles across a range of dry densities (1,050 to 1,850 kg·m −3 ) and Na/Ca counterion compositions (Na fraction ranging from 0.2 to 1). The simulated systems, along with their reconstructed binary three-dimensional pore networks, are used to evaluate the microstructure, pore size distribution, tortuosity, ion diffusivity, and swelling pressure of compacted smectite clay. Results show that our approach captures important features of the mesoscale heterogeneity of compacted clays, including tactoid formation, hierarchical porosity, and anisotropic pore networks. Results also reveal how compaction and counterion composition govern emergent behaviors, including dominant pore sizes, directional transport, and electrochemical response. This work highlights the potential of CG simulations to bridge molecular and continuum scales and to advance geotechnical and environmental applications involving clay-rich materials as well as related nanoporous media such as geopolymers and calcium-silicate-hydrate. However, the results also suggest that accurate prediction of certain microstructural and mechanical properties (e.g., swelling pressure) may require even larger-scale systems on the order of 1 μm.

02 PETROLEUM↗

DOE OSTI2024

Nowcasting Earthquakes With Stochastic Simulations: Information Entropy of Earthquake Catalogs

Earthquake nowcasting has been proposed as a means of tracking the change in large earthquake potential in a seismically active area. The method was developed using observable seismic data, in which probabilities of future large earthquakes can be computed using Receiver Operating Characteristic methods. Furthermore, analysis of the Shannon information content of the earthquake catalogs has been used to show that there is information contained in the catalogs, and that it can vary in time. So an important question remains, where does the information originate? In this paper, we examine this question using stochastic simulations of earthquake catalogs. Our catalog simulations are computed using an Earthquake Rescaled Aftershock Seismicity (“ERAS”) stochastic model. This model is similar in many ways to other stochastic seismicity simulations, but has the advantage that the model has only 2 free parameters to be set, one for the aftershock (Omori-Utsu) time decay, and one for the aftershock spatial migration away from the epicenter. Generating a simulation catalog and fitting the two parameters to the observed catalog such as California takes only a few minutes of wall clock time. While clustering can arise from random, Poisson statistics, we show that significant information in the simulation catalogs arises from the “non-Poisson” power-law aftershock clustering, implying that the practice of de-clustering observed catalogs may remove information that would otherwise be useful in forecasting and nowcasting. We also show that the nowcasting method provides similar results with the ERAS model as it does with observed seismicity.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

How Do Climate Model Resolution and Atmospheric Moisture Affect the Simulation of Unprecedented Extreme Events Like the 2021 Western North American Heat Wave?

Abstract Although the 2021 Western North America (WNA) heat wave was predicted by weather forecast models, questions remain about whether such strong events can be simulated by global climate models (GCMs) at different model resolutions. Here, we analyze sets of GCM simulations including historical and future periods to check for the occurrence of similar events. High‐ and low‐resolution simulations both encounter challenges in reproducing events as extreme as the observed one, particularly under the present climate. Relatively stronger amplitudes are observed during the future periods. Furthermore, high‐ and low‐resolution short initialized GCM simulations are both able to reasonably predict such strong events and their associated high‐pressure ridge over the WNA with a 1 week forecast lead time. Moisture sensitivity experiments further indicate a drier atmospheric moisture condition results in substantially higher near‐surface temperatures in the simulated heat events.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Droughts in Wind and Solar Power: Assessing Climate Model Simulations for a Net‐Zero Energy Future

Abstract Understanding and predicting “droughts” in wind and solar power availability can help the electric grid operator planning and operation toward deep renewable penetration. We assess climate models' ability to simulate these droughts at different horizontal resolutions, ∼100 and ∼25 km, over Western North America and Texas. We find that these power droughts are associated with the high/low pressure systems. The simulated wind and solar power variabilities and their corresponding droughts during historical periods are more sensitive to the model bias than to the model resolution. Future climate simulations reveal varied future change of these droughts across different regions. Although model resolution does not affect the simulation of historical droughts, it does impact the simulated future changes. This suggests that regional response to future warming can vary considerably in high‐ and low‐resolution models. These insights have important implications for adapting power system planning and operations to the changing climate.

Liu, Xue [Department of Oceanography Texas A&amp,M↗

DOE OSTI2025

Particle‐In‐Cell Simulations of Starfish Prime

The Starfish Prime high altitude nuclear test created a transient diamagnetic cavity in the Earth's magnetic field above Johnston Island and launched an electromagnetic pulse (EMP) that was detected around the globe. For this work, we use the ion‐kinetic particle‐in‐cell code Topanga to simulate diamagnetic cavity evolution and the E3 EMP signal for Starfish Prime out to over a minute of physical time. The simulation domain has a longitudinal and latitudinal extent of 60° X 60° and a vertical extent of 2,000 km from the surface of the Earth. We compare our simulated results to magnetometer measurements taken in space and on the ground, finding good agreement in both cases. The diamagnetic cavity in the simulation forms in about a second, while the associated debris flux tube takes approximately 30 s to decay. The debris flux tube undergoes significant motion during this timeframe, rising upward. The measured E3 EMP signal on the ground consists of several components, all of which are present in our simulations. We discuss the physical origin of these components in relation to E3a (blast) and E3b (heave).

Belyaev, Mikhail A. [Lawrence Livermore National L↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Thermal Adaptation of Enzyme‐Mediated Processes Reduces Simulated Soil CO2 Fluxes Upon Soil Warming

Abstract Understanding factors influencing carbon effluxes from soils to the atmosphere is important in a world experiencing climatic change. Two important uncertainties related to soil organic carbon (SOC) stock responses to a changing climate are (a) whether soil microbial communities acclimate or adapt to changes in soil temperature and (b) how to represent this process in SOC models. To further explore these issues, we included thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes in a mechanistic SOC model (ReSOM) using the macromolecular rate theory. Thermal adaptation is defined here to encompass all potential responses of soil microbes and microbial communities following a change in temperature. To assess the effects of thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes on simulated SOC losses, ReSOM was applied to data collected from a 13‐year soil warming experiment. Results show that a model omitting thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes substantially overestimates observed CO 2 effluxes during the initial years of soil warming. The bias against observed CO 2 effluxes was lower for models including thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes. In addition, for a simulated linear 3°C soil warming over 100 years, models including thermal adaptation of enzyme‐mediated processes simulated SOC losses of a factor of three smaller than models omitting this process. As thermal adaptation of microbial community characteristics is generally not included in models simulating feedback between the soil, biosphere and atmosphere, we encourage future studies to assess the potential impact that microbial adaptation has on soil carbon – climate feedback representations in models. Plain Language Summary A major uncertainty in projecting how much soil organic carbon (SOC) will be converted to CO 2 as a consequence of climate change is related to how soil microbes may adapt to increasing soil temperatures. While this “microbial thermal adaptation” has been shown to occur in short‐term lab incubation experiments, its effect on SOC cycling on a decadal timescale is not clear. To address this knowledge gap, a mechanistic SOC model was used to simulate data collected from a 13‐year soil warming experiment, to assess how microbial thermal adaptation affects predicted SOC losses upon soil warming. The model results show that incorporating microbial thermal adaptation into the model led to reduced CO 2 effluxes from the soil to the atmosphere compared to the common approach of omitting this mechanism. Our results imply that projected SOC losses for the decades to come may be reduced when this mechanism is incorporated in land models. We therefore advocate for more research on the mechanisms controlling microbial thermal adaptation, and how to implement this mechanism in SOC models. Key Points A crucial aspect of soil organic carbon (SOC) models is the representation of soil microbes Predicted soil CO 2 fluxes upon soil warming are reduced when accounting for microbial thermal adaptation On a centennial time scale, this thermal adaptation results in up to a factor of three lower predicted SOC loss

Van de Broek, Marijn↗

DOE OSTI2026

Exposing and Reducing Biases of Simulating Mixed-Phase Clouds in the Convection-Permitting E3SM Atmosphere Model: Lessons From an Arctic Cold-Air Outbreak

Mixed-phase clouds modulate the water and energy cycles of high-latitude regions, yet their liquid-ice phase partitioning has long been poorly simulated in climate models. Here, simulations of Arctic mixed-phase clouds by the Simple Cloud-Resolving E3SM Atmosphere Model (SCREAM) are assessed against large-eddy simulations, satellite data, and ground-based observations during the Cold-Air Outbreaks in the Marine Boundary Layer Experiment field campaign. SCREAM simulates nearly completely frozen clouds, which is attributed largely to the unreasonably strong Wegener–Bergeron–Findeisen (WBF) process that converts liquid to ice excessively and partly to the early over-abundant ice production at cold temperatures from a temperature-deterministic deposition ice nucleation scheme. Assuming no subgrid variation for the WBF process in the original formulation particularly conflicts with the instantaneous saturation adjustment assumption in the condensation scheme that assumes subgrid variability, leading to exaggerated WBF process rates. A proposed simple physically-based improvement on the treatment of subgrid cloud overlap substantially increases supercooled liquid water content and notably improves cloud-top phase partitioning, aligning better with observations. Improvement of supercooled liquid water content also converges with increasing horizontal resolution. The deposition ice nucleation scheme is found responsible for a falsely-produced ice cloud aloft that is not observed, biasing the simulated cloud radiative effects and top-of-atmosphere radiative fluxes. This study identifies key deficiencies in cloud parameterizations that continue to challenge convection-permitting models.

Geosciences↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Decadal Hybrid GCM Simulation Using Deep‐Learning‐Based Cloud and Convection Parameterization Generalized to a Warm Climate

A critical challenge for machine‐learning (ML) parameterization in global climate models (GCMs) is to achieve stable, accurate simulations under climates not seen during training. Previous studies have demonstrated promising offline performance and year‐long online stability in aquaplanet simulations but have encountered difficulties in real geography and under climate warming. Here we report that a GCM with real geography configuration using neural‐network‐based cloud and convection parameterization, trained exclusively with present‐day climate data, successfully performs a stable, decade‐long simulation of a warm climate with +4 K sea surface temperature (SST). The neural network (NN) is based on Han et al. (2023, https://doi.org/10.1029/2022ms003508 ) with additional inputs. The simulation captures the global precipitation distribution, surface temperatures, vertical atmospheric structures, and extreme precipitation very well, closely matching simulations from both the superparameterized CAM (SPCAM) and the conventional CAM5 in the warm climate without accuracy degradation compared to those in the baseline climate. Moreover, it produces a climate response to +4 K SST in atmospheric thermodynamic states and circulations similar to those from SPCAM and CAM5. Prognostic ablation tests on NN input variables show that the NN without convective memory as input suffers from numerical instability, and the NN without considering radiative variables and land fraction as input, or with reduced training samples produce less accurate results. To our knowledge, this is the first time an ML parameterization successfully achieves online extrapolation to a warm climate without using additional warm‐climate data for training. It demonstrates the potential of ML‐driven parameterizations for credible long‐term climate projections.

Atmosphere model↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Deep State Space Model for Rainfall‐Runoff Simulations

The classical way of studying the rainfall‐runoff processes in the water cycle relies on conceptual or physically‐based hydrologic models. Deep learning (DL) has recently emerged as an alternative and blossomed in the hydrology community for rainfall‐runoff simulations. However, the decades‐old Long Short‐Term Memory (LSTM) network remains the benchmark for this task, outperforming newer architectures like Transformers. In this work, we propose a State Space Model (SSM), specifically the Frequency Tuned Diagonal State Space Sequence (S4D‐FT) model, for rainfall‐runoff simulations. The proposed S4D‐FT is benchmarked against the established LSTM and a physically‐based Sacramento Soil Moisture Accounting model under in‐sample and out‐of‐sample simulation setups across 531 watersheds in the contiguous United States (CONUS). Results show that S4D‐FT is able to outperform the LSTM model across diverse regions under both simulation setups, especially for regions that feature snowmelt‐driven or intermittent flow regimes. In contrast, S4D‐FT tends to underperform in flashier, high‐magnitude flow regimes, likely due to its global state‐space convolution computation that emphasizes slow, storage‐driven dynamics, which makes it less effective at picking up short bursts and noisy spikes in the data. In summary, our pioneering introduction of the S4D‐FT for rainfall‐runoff simulations challenges the dominance of LSTM in the hydrology community and expands the arsenal of DL tools available for hydrological modeling.

Wang, Yihan [Univ. of Oklahoma, Norman, OK (United↗