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DOE OSTI2025

A Digital Twin Framework Utilizing Machine Learning for Robust Predictive Maintenance: Enhancing Tire Health Monitoring

We introduce a novel digital twin (DT) framework for the predictive maintenance of long-term physical systems. Using monitoring tire health as an application, we show how the DT framework can be used to enhance automotive safety and efficiency, and how the technical challenges can be overcome using a three-step approach. First, to manage the data complexity over a long operation span, we employ data reduction techniques to concisely represent physical tires using historical performance and usage data. Relying on these data, for fast real-time prediction, we train a transformer-based model offline on our concise dataset to predict future tire health over time, represented as remaining casing potential (RCP). Based on our architecture, our model quantifies both epistemic and aleatoric uncertainties, providing reliable confidence intervals around predicted RCP. Second, to incorporate real-time data, we update the predictive model in the DT framework, ensuring its accuracy throughout its lifespan with the aid of hybrid modeling and the use of the discrepancy function. Third, to assist decision-making in predictive maintenance, we implement a tire state decision algorithm, which strategically determines the optimal timing for tire replacement based on RCP forecasted by our transformer model. This approach ensures that our DT accurately predicts system health, continually refines its digital representation, and supports predictive maintenance decisions. Furthermore, our framework effectively embodies a physical system, leveraging big data and machine learning (ML) for predictive maintenance, model updates, and decision-making.

advanced computing infrastructure↗

DOE OSTI2025

Design of Hopfield Networks Based on Superconducting Coupled Oscillators

The global energy shortage has driven the development of many energy-efficient computational platforms beyond Moore's law, among which brain-inspired neuromorphic computing is one of the promising solutions. Associative memory and pattern recognition are important computations solved by brain-inspired Hopfield networks. Classical Hopfield networks store memories via fixed point attractors of their dynamics. In oscillatory Hopfield networks, these attractors are replaced by periodic orbits. Here, we design an oscillatory Hopfield network based on coupled superconducting oscillators. We first employ a mathematical phase reduction approach to map networks of coupled superconducting rapid single flux quantum (RSFQ) ring oscillators to coupled Kuramoto phase-oscillator networks. We use this theory to numerically optimize the hardware's mutual inductances in order to directly match the phase-reduced superconducting oscillators to a model of phase-oscillator-based Hopfield networks. The resulting network can store multiple oscillatory phase-locked memory patterns and recover the patterns based on the initial phase conditions. As different pattern recognition tasks, or learning, require tunable connectivity strengths between the oscillatory nodes, we further employ a coupler circuit that enables tuning the coupling strength between two oscillators by applying an external flux. We demonstrate the functionality of our design through numerical simulations of a small example network with oscillators operating at 86 GHz and recognizing patterns within 10 ns. Our approach enables the learning and retrieval of dynamical memory patterns with a wide range of applications where rhythmic dynamic output is beneficial.

Cheng, Ran↗

DOE OSTI2024

Innovating the next generation of commercial smart building software

Nearly 30% of commercial building energy use is wasted due to equipment faults and HVAC controls problems. The result is increased emissions, compromised comfort and productivity, and less reliable coordination of building power needs with a clean grid. The energy impact alone represents $17 billion in potential savings. Today’s smart building software provides a robust solution to address these operational deficiencies. Energy management and information systems (EMIS) are saving up to 9% on average, with two-year paybacks. They are being incorporated into energy management processes, commissioning services, and utility programs. As effective as they are, two barriers prevent even deeper benefits; limited personnel to fix problems once they are identified, and the expense and time to manually implement changes in control systems. In partnership with the research community, the EMIS industry is developing new capabilities to overcome these barriers. Moving beyond siloed products for either fault detection and diagnostics, or optimal control, these new capabilities empower users to not only automatically identify faults, but also to push corrective action, and control improvements to their buildings. In this paper, several areas for enhancements are documented: ‘one-time’ correction of faults such as setpoints, schedules, and economizer lockouts; short-term active testing for automated proportional integral derivative (PID) loop tuning and functional testing; and continuous supervisory control for demand flexibility and year-round efficiency. Results are presented from a pair of partner implementations out of a dozen providers integrating these enhancements into their products, including field tests from across the country, and insights into operator acceptance and integration into operations and maintenance practices.

Casillas, Armando↗

DOE OSTI2020

Harvesting the low-hanging fruit of high energy savings -- Virtual Occupancy using Wi-Fi Data

Approximately 20% of primary energy consumed in the U.S. is attributed to HVAC use. Ideally, HVAC operation would be driven by actual building occupancy, but lack of reliable occupancy information often results in the use of conservative static schedules. This disparity is even more pronounced in a college campus, where the function of each space differs by building (classrooms, offices, libraries) and the class schedules change frequently -- every semester, day of week, and hour. While several research papers propose the use of counts of the Wi-Fi connections (e.g., phones, computers) as a proxy for occupancy, few real-world implementations exist. This paper describes the development and deployment of an open-source Wi-Fi-to-Occupancy software library in 65 buildings of a college campus, and the planned integration with the building energy management and control system at the building scale. Over a year of Wi-Fi data was gathered into distinct academic periods, including fall and spring semester, academic breaks, and summer sessions. Patterns such as students moving between classrooms, closing laptops before exams, etc., can be visualized from the data. Approximating occupancy from Wi-Fi data presents challenges which we address in this project -- for example, identifying static devices, or estimating the ratio of devices per person. Utilizing real-time occupancy data to inform optimal HVAC schedules and ventilation rates creates the potential to identify and reduce energy waste. Other potential applications include forecasting occupancy, and using Wi-Fi data to predict peak demands. Finally, the paper discusses how to easily scale these tools to other buildings.

Pritoni, Marco↗

DOE OSTI2023

Predicting partner fitness based on spatial structuring in a light-driven microbial community

Microbial communities have vital roles in systems essential to human health and agriculture, such as gut and soil microbiomes, and there is growing interest in engineering designer consortia for applications in biotechnology ( e . g ., personalized probiotics, bioproduction of high-value products, biosensing). The capacity to monitor and model metabolite exchange in dynamic microbial consortia can provide foundational information important to understand the community level behaviors that emerge, a requirement for building novel consortia. Where experimental approaches for monitoring metabolic exchange are technologically challenging, computational tools can enable greater access to the fate of both chemicals and microbes within a consortium. In this study, we developed an in-silico model of a synthetic microbial consortia of sucrose-secreting Synechococcus elongatus PCC 7942 and Escherichia coli W. Our model was built on the NUFEB framework for Individual-based Modeling (IbM) and optimized for biological accuracy using experimental data. We showed that the relative level of sucrose secretion regulates not only the steady-state support for heterotrophic biomass, but also the temporal dynamics of consortia growth. In order to determine the importance of spatial organization within the consortium, we fit a regression model to spatial data and used it to accurately predict colony fitness. We found that some of the critical parameters for fitness prediction were inter-colony distance, initial biomass, induction level, and distance from the center of the simulation volume. We anticipate that the synergy between experimental and computational approaches will improve our ability to design consortia with novel function.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

PET Imaging Agents (FES, FFNP, and FDHT) for Estrogen, Androgen, and Progesterone Receptors to Improve Management of Breast and Prostate Cancers by Functional Imaging

Many breast and prostate cancers are driven by the action of steroid hormones on their cognate receptors in primary tumors and in metastases, and endocrine therapies that inhibit hormone production or block the action of these receptors provide clinical benefit to many but not all of these cancer patients. Because it is difficult to predict which individuals will be helped by endocrine therapies and which will not, positron emission tomography (PET) imaging of estrogen receptor (ER) and progesterone receptor (PgR) in breast cancer, and androgen receptor (AR) in prostate cancer can provide useful, often functional, information on the likelihood of endocrine therapy response in individual patients. This review covers our development of three PET imaging agents, 16α-[ 18 F]fluoroestradiol (FES) for ER, 21-[ 18 F]fluoro-furanyl-nor-progesterone (FFNP) for PgR, and 16β-[ 18 F]fluoro-5α-dihydrotestosterone (FDHT) for AR, and the evolution of their clinical use. For these agents, the pathway from concept through development tracks with an emerging understanding of critical performance criteria that is needed for successful PET imaging of these low-abundance receptor targets. Progress in the ongoing evaluation of what they can add to the clinical management of breast and prostate cancers reflects our increased understanding of these diseases and of optimal strategies for predicting the success of clinical endocrine therapies.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Maximized lateral inhibition in paired magnetic domain wall racetracks for neuromorphic computing

Lateral inhibition is an important functionality in neuromorphic computing, modeled after the biological neuron behavior that a firing neuron deactivates its neighbors belonging to the same layer and prevents them from firing. In most neuromorphic hardware platforms lateral inhibition is implemented by external circuitry, thereby decreasing the energy efficiency and increasing the area overhead of such systems. Recently, the domain wall—magnetic tunnel junction (DW-MTJ) artificial neuron is demonstrated in modeling to be intrinsically inhibitory. Without peripheral circuitry, lateral inhibition in DW-MTJ neurons results from magnetostatic interaction between neighboring neuron cells. However, the lateral inhibition mechanism in DW-MTJ neurons has not been studied thoroughly, leading to weak inhibition only in very closely-spaced devices. This work approaches these problems by modeling current- and field- driven DW motion in a pair of adjacent DW-MTJ neurons. We maximize the magnitude of lateral inhibition by tuning the magnetic interaction between the neurons. The results are explained by current-driven DW velocity characteristics in response to an external magnetic field and quantified by an analytical model. Dependence of lateral inhibition strength on device parameters is also studied. Finally, lateral inhibition behavior in an array of 1000 DW-MTJ neurons is demonstrated. Our results provide a guideline for the optimization of lateral inhibition implementation in DW-MTJ neurons. Finally, with strong lateral inhibition achieved, a path towards competitive learning algorithms such as the winner-take-all are made possible on such neuromorphic devices.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗

DOE OSTI2026

The relative influences of hydrologic information and dams’ hydropower scheduling decisions on electricity price forecasts

Price dynamics in wholesale electricity markets are driven by supply and demand. In markets with hydroelectric dams, the timing and amount of hydropower offered can influence prices in similar ways to wind and solar power. Unlike variable renewable energy, however, the supply of hydropower in wholesale markets is a function of both water availability and operational decisions at dams. Dam operators maximize revenues in wholesale markets by aligning generation with the periods of highest expected prices, and these scheduling decisions may in turn influence prices. Here, we examine the relative importance of two types of information in predicting forward electricity prices: a) water availability at dams, in the form of short-to-medium-range hydrological forecasts; and b) hourly scheduling decisions at dams. Using softly coupled hydrologic, hydropower scheduling, and power systems models spanning the U.S. Western Interconnection, we quantify the importance of hydrologic forecast accuracy in correctly predicting wholesale electricity prices and compare this with the influence of dam operators’ own hourly scheduling decisions on realized market prices. We find that aligning hydropower generation schedules with the periods of high forecasted prices causes larger, inadvertent price forecast errors than imperfect hydrologic forecasts. This suggests that knowledge of how water is managed by dam operators within the week is more important than weekly inflow forecast errors when predicting forward electricity prices. Our findings have implications for optimal hydropower scheduling by region. Specifically, accounting for price effects is critical in markets dominated by hydropower capacity.

Electricity markets↗

DOE OSTI2022

Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) for Transportation Hubs (Final Report)

This report summarizes the work performed under the award number EE0008524. The project develops the Multi-modal Energy-optimal Trip Scheduling in Real-time (METS-R) platform as the next-generation transportation solution based on autonomous electric vehicles (AEV) serving passenger trips from and to urban transportation hubs, to substantially reduce transportation energy consumption. Extensive data collection and analyses were first conducted to understand the demand patterns and energy consumption of hub-based on-road trips. Then, a data-driven framework that consists of an analytical module and a simulation module was proposed. For the analytical module, five planning + operation tools were developed to support the planning and energy-efficient operations of urban AEV services: the charging station planning that robotically allocates charging supplies based on the stationary charging demand distribution; the transit planning and demand adaptive scheduling model that efficiently generates\ candidate transit routes from hubs to other places and dynamically adjusts the transit time table to fit the current demand; the online energy-efficient routing that learns the energy-optimal paths from observations of link-level energy consumption in real-time; the hub-based ridesharing that matches trip requests together with account for the uncertainty of future trip demand and vehicle supply; and finally, the integrated demand prediction and anomaly detection pipeline that leverages the flight/train time table and support other planning/operation tools. To demonstrate the performance of these tools, a scalable high-performance agent-based simulator was built. We divided the urban space into multiple service zones where each zone was considered as an agent for passenger generation and vehicle charging. Two types of AEV agents were coded to model two types of mobility services: AEV taxi and AEV transit. For the AEV taxi, the team implemented the functions of pickup/drop-off passengers, energy-efficient routing, ridesharing, fleet rebalancing, and recharging. For the AEV bus, the team implemented the functions of demand-adaptive route scheduling, passenger boarding, and recharging. A high-performance computing framework was introduced to receive various profiling information (such as link energy updates, vehicle speed) from the simulator instances and communicate the operational commands back to the instances. The numerical experiments show that each of the proposed operational algorithms can reduce energy consumption and improve system efficiency. Furthermore, there exists the need to collectively consider multiple planning + operational strategies as multiple strategies can influence each other in terms of performance impacts. Recommendations for future work related to AEV planning and simulation are discussed.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2020

The role of rotation-vibration coupling in symmetric and asymmetric isotopomers of ozone

A theoretical framework and a computer code (SpectrumSDT) are developed for accurate calculations of coupled rotational–vibrational states in triatomic molecules using hyper-spherical coordinates and taking into account the Coriolis coupling effect. Concise final formulas are derived for the construction of the Hamiltonian matrix using an efficient combination of the variational basis representation and discrete variable representation methods with locally optimized basis sets and grids. First, the new code is tested by comparing its results with those of the APH3D program of Kendrick et al. [Kendrick, Pack, Walker, and Hayes, J. Chem. Phys. 110, 6673 (1999)]. Then, accurate calculations of the rovibrational spectra are carried out for doubly substituted symmetric ( 18 O 16 O 18 O) and asymmetric ( 18 O 18 O 16 O) ozone isotopomers for the total angular momentum up to J = 5. Together with similar data recently reported for the singly substituted symmetric ( 16 O 18 O 16 O) and asymmetric ( 16 O 16 O 18 O) ozone isotopomers, these calculations quantify the role of the Coriolis coupling effect in the large mass-independent isotopic enrichment of ozone, observed in both laboratory experiments and the atmosphere of the Earth. It is found that the Coriolis effect in ozone is relatively small, as evidenced by deviations of its rotational constants from the symmetric-top-rotor behavior, magnitudes of parity splittings (Λ-doubling), and ratios of rovibrational partition functions for asymmetric vs symmetric ozone molecules. It is concluded that all of these characteristics are influenced by the isotopic masses as much as they are influenced by the overall symmetry of the molecule. It is therefore unlikely that the Coriolis coupling effect could be responsible for symmetry-driven mass-independent fractionation of oxygen isotopes in ozone.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

BSMV-mediated genome editing exhibits host-specific heritability: germline transmission in barley and somatic edits in Nicotiana benthamiana

Plant RNA virus–mediated guide RNA (gRNA) delivery represents a transformative advance in genome editing technologies. Unlike conventional transformation methods that rely on labor-intensive tissue culture and regeneration for each individual gRNA delivery, viral vectors can rapidly and systemically transmit gRNAs into pre-established Cas-expressing plants, providing an accelerated route for functional genomics and trait discovery directly in planta . However, key design parameters, including subgenomic promoter choice, transcript architecture, and their effects on viral fitness and editing outcomes, remain to be elucidated for most viral platforms. We developed five Barley stripe mosaic virus (BSMV) vectors, each with distinct subgenomic promoter elements to drive single gRNA expression. These were initially evaluated in Cas9-expressing transgenic Nicotiana benthamiana plants targeting the Phytoene desaturase ( PDS ) gene to compare their editing efficiencies. Single gRNAs expressed under the duplicated γb subgenomic promoter or when fused directly to the γb genome achieved the highest mutation frequencies (up to 90% at 60 days post-inoculation), whereas β1- and β2-driven sgRNAs produced delayed and reduced editing. Thus, promoter selection critically determines gRNA accumulation and the efficacy of BSMV-mediated genome editing. The top-performing design was then applied to Cas9-expressing barley ( Hordeum vulgare ) targeting HvCMF7 (conferring green-white variegation) and HvGW2.1 (impacts grain width and weight). BSMV spread systemically throughout barley, inducing somatic and heritable mutations at frequencies up to 100%, with virus-free edited progeny. In contrast, despite robust somatic editing in N. benthamiana, no heritable mutations were detected indicating species-dependent limitations in germline transmission. Our systematic comparison of subgenomic promoter architectures establishes clear design principles for optimizing viral vector–mediated delivery. Promoter choice and transcript structure critically shape editing efficiency and viral stability. The host-specific boundary for germline editing, defined by efficient heritable editing in barley but not N. benthamiana , highlights where BSMV offers advantages and where alternative vectors or hybrid strategies are required, guiding rational platform selection for diverse crop species and applications. Collectively, these findings establish BSMV as a promising next-generation vector for rapid, tissue culture–free, and transformation-independent genome editing in cereals and other recalcitrant monocots.

barley↗

DOE OSTI2022

In‐Silico Device Performance Prediction of Cosensitizer Dye Pairs for Dye‐Sensitized Solar Cells

Abstract Endeavors in the field of dye‐sensitized solar cells (DSCs) have shown great promise when adopting a data‐driven approach to materials discovery, such as successful molecular‐scale predictions of light‐harvesting chromophores. However, predictions of DSC dyes would become much more sophisticated if a molecular‐to‐macroscopic DSC device prediction methodology existed. Thereby, a fully computational pipeline is presented that predicts device‐performance parameters of DSCs which contain varying dye combinations. Optimal pairing of complementary dyes is identified via a data‐driven workflow that affords cosensitized DSCs with maximum power‐conversion efficiencies. Six high‐performing DSC dyes are paired with partner dyes that are screened from a database of 8488 compounds using sequential heuristic filters. Existing models that predict short‐circuit‐current density ( J SC ) and open‐circuit voltage ( V OC ) parameters are adapted to predict singly sensitized and cosensitized DSC performance. The predictions for J sc values of singly sensitized devices match experimental literature values with comparable accuracy to more computationally costly methods. Five out of six dye pairings are predicted to have greater J SC values when cosensitized compared to their corresponding singly sensitized devices, including two pairs that show strong J sc boosts of +13% and +12% when cosensitized. Thus, the prospect of an entirely in‐silico prediction pipeline for DSC performance that can be used to realize the fully automated design of optimized cosensitized DSCs is demonstrated.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Frontiers of Ionic Liquids in Carbon Dioxide Separation and Valorization

Ionic liquids (ILs) have emerged as highly tunable sorbents and membranes for gas separation, especially in the purification of CO 2 -containing gas streams such as air, natural gas, biogas, and syngas. Their negligible volatility, high thermal stability, and chemical versatility position them as promising alternatives to conventional amine and alkaline metal derivative-based systems, effectively addressing key challenges such as volatility, stability, and high regeneration energy. Here, this Review explores IL-derived systems for CO 2 -related gas separation across dense, porous, and supported categories. At the dense liquid level, we discuss strategies for tailoring IL properties to optimize CO 2 sorption, focusing on the correlation between IL-CO 2 interaction strength, uptake capacity, and regeneration energy. Key advancements in carbon capture, including amino-functionalized (AILs) and superbase-derived ILs (SILs), are highlighted, along with strategies such as chemical structure engineering, multiple binding site integration, alternative driving force exploration, and stability enhancement. Then, the porous liquids (PLs) scale focuses on the emerging field integrating IL properties with permanent porosity engineering, spanning ultramicropores (<5 Å) to macropores (around 100 nm). These innovations improve gas uptake capacity, accelerate transport kinetics, introduce the gating effect, and enable the coexistence of active sites with antagonistic properties within a single IL medium. At the supported IL scale, the discussion shifts to IL- and ionic pair-modified sorbents and membranes, emphasizing the modulation of cations and anions, confinement effects from porous supports, and the IL–interface interaction to enhance CO 2 separation performance, particularly in diluted gas streams. Beyond separation, this Review highlights IL-based integrated processes for CO 2 capture and conversion into value-added chemicals via thermocatalytic, electrocatalytic, and photocatalytic pathways. At each scale, advanced computational and experimental tools for IL design are also discussed, providing insights into stability enhancement, sorption efficiency, and process integration. The Review concludes by addressing existing challenges and outlining future directions for IL-driven innovations in gas separation technologies.

Qiu, Liqi [Univ. of Tennessee, Knoxville, TN (Unit↗

DOE OSTI2026

Human Factors and Technologies Design to Improve User Acceptance of Pooled Rideshare for Increasing Transportation System Energy Efficiency

This multi-year project delivered a comprehensive, human-factors-driven framework to understand, model, and improve pooled rideshare (PR) adoption in the United States. Through three large-scale national survey studies involving more than 16,000 participants across multiple cities and demographic groups, the research established one of the most extensive datasets to date on user perceptions, behavioral barriers, and service expectations related to pooled rideshare. These data revealed key human factors barriers of user acceptance of PR and suggested potential actionable experience optimizations that could lead to increased PR usage. This foundational knowledge guided the development of novel human-factors models and behavioral choice models that quantify how psychological, demographic, and trip-level factors influence willingness to pool. Building on these empirical insights, the project developed advanced behavioral modeling tools, including mixed logit and integrated choice and latent variable models, to capture both observable and latent influences on PR adoption. These models significantly improved the ability to predict riders’ acceptance of pooled trips, explaining choice heterogeneity through latent constructs such as safety, service experience, privacy concerns, time sensitivity, and environmental attitudes. Together, these models provide a robust analytical foundation for designing PR systems that more effectively meet user needs. The project translated human-factors insights and behavioral models into actionable technology innovations by extending POLARIS—an agent-based, activity-based travel simulation platform—into a fully functional pooled rideshare simulation environment. New PR modules, acceptance models, and regional scenarios were implemented for Greenville, SC and Austin, TX, enabling high-fidelity validation of algorithmic strategies under realistic demand and traffic conditions. The simulation platform supported the development and evaluation of adaptive discount-based assignment algorithms, enhanced willingness-to-pay formulations, demographic-aware incentive mechanisms, and a proactive joint assignment and repositioning strategy. Simulation results demonstrated substantial gains in pooling uptake, average vehicle occupancy, energy efficiency, and fleet profitability. In Greenville, pooling adoption more than doubled, while reductions in vehicle-miles traveled and energy consumption were significant. In Austin, pooling improvements were achieved with minimal service-quality trade-offs, and profitability increased across all fleet sizes. Through this research, we developed a comprehensive understanding of the human factors barriers that limit user acceptance of pooled rideshare services. These insights enabled the design of human-factors-aware pooled rideshare technologies that more effectively address user concerns and improve adoption rates. By integrating these models into an advanced agent-based simulation framework, we demonstrated that higher adoption of pooled rideshare can lead to measurable improvements in energy efficiency and system performance. Together, these contributions establish a validated pathway from human-centered analysis to technology development and energy-saving outcomes, supporting national goals for more sustainable and efficient mobility systems.

Jia, Yunyi↗

DOE OSTI2026

Transitions, Dynamics, and Driven States in Quantum Magnets (Final Report Revised)

Transitions into unusual electronic, optical, and magnetic states at the absolute zero of temperature display special properties that teach us about fundamental quantum mechanics and also underlie important technologies. These so-called quantum phase transitions intertwine the static and dynamical responses of the materials changing state. They are extremely sensitive to the effects of disorder and etch in high relief the role of quantum fluctuations. There are ample questions remaining about the character of such transitions and the nature of the competing quantum states. There are also opportunities to drive quantum materials out of equilibrium, with the possibility of new types of correlated and coherent order, and new ways to access the dynamical evolution of ground and excited states. We have investigated how the order develops in time and space, and the nature of the final configurations. We are able to compare and contrast classical and quantum excitations in our experimental system of choice, and thereby can trace the relative speed by which the system settles into its lowest-energy ground state. This comparison of quantum and classical annealing protocols lies at the heart of strategies for harnessing the power of quantum computers dedicated to optimization problems. A combination of magnetic susceptibility measurements at finite frequency where the magnetic spins are queried by an external ac field, dc magnetometry measurements that characterize the macroscopic strength of magnetic order and its resistance to change, noise measurements that reveal the microscopic fluctuations of the spins as they prepare to change state, and microwave spectroscopy to look at the response of both the electronic and nuclear degrees of freedom, have been performed as functions of temperature, magnetic field, frequency, excitation amplitude, magnetic spin concentration, and disorder. This combination of probes addresses issues of stability over time, overlap between spin states, the ability of the spins to respond independently or coherently, and the promise of control on the nanometer length scale. The research reported here provides insights into fundamental quantum physics. It also addresses the question of how best to use complex systems, such as magnetic solids, to stably process quantum information.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

DOE OSTI2025

Understanding latent timescales in neural ordinary differential equation models of advection-dominated dynamical systems

The neural ordinary differential equation (ODE) framework has shown considerable promise in recent years in developing highly accelerated surrogate models for complex physical systems characterized by partial differential equations (PDEs). For PDE-based systems, state-of-the-art neural ODE strategies leverage a two-step procedure to achieve this acceleration: a nonlinear dimensionality reduction step provided by an autoencoder, and a time integration step provided by a neural-network based model for the resultant latent space dynamics (the neural ODE). This work explores the applicability of such autoencoder-based neural ODE strategies for PDEs in which advection terms play a critical role. More specifically, alongside predictive demonstrations, physical insight into the sources of model acceleration (i.e., how the neural ODE achieves its acceleration) is the scope of the current study. Such investigations are performed by quantifying the effects of both autoencoder and neural ODE components on latent system time-scales using eigenvalue analysis of dynamical system Jacobians. To this end, the sensitivity of various critical training parameters – de-coupled versus end-to-end training, latent space dimensionality, and the role of training trajectory length, for example – to both model accuracy and the discovered latent system timescales is quantified. Furthermore, this work specifically uncovers the key role played by the training trajectory length (the number of rollout steps in the loss function during training) on the latent system timescales: larger trajectory lengths correlate with an increase in limiting neural ODE time-scales, and optimal neural ODEs are found to recover the largest time-scales of the full-order (ground-truth) system. Demonstrations are performed across fundamentally different unsteady fluid dynamics configurations influenced by advection: (1) the Kuramoto–Sivashinsky equations (2) Hydrogen-Air channel detonations (the compressible reacting Navier–Stokes equations with detailed chemistry), and (3) 2D Atmospheric flow.

Advection-dominated dynamical systems↗

DOE OSTI2020

Development of Control System Functional Capabilities within the IES Plug-and-Play Simulation Environment

The concept of an Integrated Energy System (IES) is meant to combine different energy technologies in synergistic ways to achieve a more secure and economical energy supply. The RAVEN-based HYBRID framework is used to find the optimal installed capacity and the optimal economical dispatch of each component of the IES. A new RAVEN (Risk Analysis Virtual ENvironment) plugin for grid and capacity optimization (HERON) has been developed for optimizing the production variables of the IES given the demand profile. Currently, only the limits that affect the production variables and their corresponding time rates of change are considered (explicit constraints). However, other variables are additionally subject to constraints, but the associated limits are not accounted for (implicit constraints). In particular, for the power dispatch problem, the optimization algorithm takes into account the limits on the electrical power output and the corresponding hourly power variations but does not consider other constraints on process variables whose response effects the service life of the IES. This report describes a scheme that allows accounting for implicit constraints without increasing the size of the optimization problem. The Reference Governor (RG) algorithm is traditionally used for enforcing state and control constraints by modifying the set-point trajectories supplied to the feedback regulators. In our application, the RG is coupled within an iterative loop with the HERON-power dispatcher to generate optimal trajectories that ensure the operational constraints are met. A data-driven procedure to derive a representation of the dynamics of the controlled system was developed. First, the variables that represented the state of the system are selected (PCA-based approach), and then state-space representation matrices are derived from the collected measurements (DMDc algorithm). A preliminary version of the developed workflow based on Linear Time Invariant matrices was assessed by adopting a two-unit test case. More sophisticated versions of this workflow foreseeing the on-line derivation of system matrices will be deployed in FY 2021. Finally, a “plug-and-play” library of controllers and state observers was developed in Dymola. Some aspects of the current configuration of the IES unit components, e.g., the encapsulation of the control schemes into dedicated blocks, are consistent with the “plug-and-play” philosophy. Other features, e.g., the system buses collecting the input and the output variables, are not. For this reason, once listed and described the limits of the current configuration, necessary modifications to the plant model interface are presented. As a test-case, the interfaces of the SES model in the RAVEN-based HYBRID framework were reworked accordingly, and two different control schemes were applied to the same plant model.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prediction of Distributed River Sediment Respiration Rates Using Community-Generated Data and Machine Learning

River sediment microbial respiration is a key indicator of ecosystem functioning and the biogeochemical fluxes across this critical zone link surface and subsurface waters. As such, there is tremendous interest in measuring and mapping these respiration rates. Respiration observations are expensive and labor intensive; there is limited data available to the community. An open science, collaborative initiative is collecting samples for respiration rate analysis and multi-scale metadata; this evolving data set is being used for making machine learning (ML) predictions at unsampled sites to help inform continued community engagement. However, it is a challenge to find an optimum configuration for ML models to work with this feature-rich (i.e., 100+ possible input variables) data set. Here, we present results from a two-tiered approach to managing the analysis of this complex data set: (a) a stacked ensemble of models that automatically optimizes hyperparameters and manages the training of many models and (b) feature permutation importance to detect the most important features in the models. The major elements of this workflow are modular, portable, open, and cloud-based thus making this implementation a potential template for other applications. The models developed here predict that sediment organic matter chemistry is one of the most important features for predicting sediment respiration rate. Other larger-scale, important features fall into the categories of climatic, ecological, geological, and fluvial settings. Leveraging these larger-scale features to generate data-driven estimates of river sediment respiration rates reveals spatially consistent but heterogeneous patterns across the river network of the Columbia River Basin.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗