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NASA NTRS2022

Present-Day and Future PM 2.5 and O 3 -Related Global and Regional Premature Mortality in the EVAv6.0 Health Impact Assessment Model

We used the EVAv6.0 system to estimate the present (2015) and future (2015–2050) global PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortalities, using simulated surface concentrations from the GISS-E2.1-G Earth system model. The PM 2.5 -related global premature mortality is estimated to be 4.3 and 4.4 million by the non-linear and linear models, respectively. Ischemic heart diseases are found to be the leading cause of PM 2.5 -related premature deaths, contributing by 35% globally. Both long-term and short-term O 3 -related premature deaths are estimated to be around 1 million, globally. Overall, PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality leads to 5.3–5.4 million premature deaths, globally. The global burden of premature deaths is mainly driven by the Asian region, which in 2015 contributes by 75% of the total global premature deaths. An increase from 6.2% to 8% in the PM 2.5 relative risk as recommended by the WHO leads to an increase of PM 2.5 -related premature mortality by 28%, to 5.7 million. Finally, bias correcting the simulated PM 2.5 concentrations in 2015 leads to an increase of up to 73% in the global PM 2.5 -related premature mortality, leading to a total number of global premature deaths of up to 7.7 million, implying the necessity of bias correction to get more robust health burden estimates. PM 2.5 and O 3 -related premature mortality in 2050 decreases by up to 57% and 18%, respectively, due to emission reductions alone. However, the projected increase and aging of the population leads to increases of premature mortality by up to a factor of 2, showing that the population exposed to air pollution is more important than the level of air pollutants, highlighting that the population dynamics should be considered when setting up health assessment systems.

Premature mortality↗
NASA NTRS2019

Assessing Reliability of NDE Flaw Detection Using Smaller Number of Demonstration Data Points

The paper provides an engineering analysis approach for assessing reliability of NDE flaw detection using smaller number of demonstration data points. It explores dependence of probability of detection (POD), probability of false positive (POF), on contrast-to-noise ratio, and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio in a simulated data; and draws some generically applicable inferences to devise the approach. ASTM nondestructive evaluation standards provide requirements on signal-to-noise ratio and/or contrast-to-noise ratio in order to provide reliable flaw detection and limit false positive calls. POD analysis of inspection test data results in an estimated flaw size, denoted by 𝑎90/95. This flaw size has 90% POD and minimum 95% confidence. POF is also estimated in the analysis. POD demonstration requires specimens with flaws of known size. In many situations, it is very expensive to produce the large number of flaws required for the POD analysis. In some situations, only real flaws can truly represent the flaws for demonstration. Real flaws of correct size and location in part configuration specimen may be difficult to produce, if not impossible. Here, an engineering analysis approach is devised using simulation to assess reliability of NDE technique when a limited number of flaws are available for demonstration. In this simulation, a technique is considered reliable, if it provides flaw detectability size equal to or better than the theoretical 𝑎90𝑡ℎ used in simulation and also provides a POF less than or equal to a chosen value. The paper uses simulated signal response versus flaw size data to devise the approach. Linear correlation is used between the signal response data and flaw size. POD software mh1823 uses generalized linear model (GLM) in POD analysis after transforming the flaw size and signal response, if needed, using logarithm. Therefore, this approach is in agreement with the linear signal correlation used in mh1823. Using the POD analysis of data, generic conditions on contrast-to-noise ratio and net decision threshold-to-noise ratio are derived for reliable flaw detection. In order to assess technique reliability using the engineering approach, signal response-to-flaw size correlation about the flaw size of concern is needed. In addition, measurement of noise is also needed. If the technique meets the above requirements, assumption of linear signal-to-flaw size correlation and conditions on noise, then the technique can be assessed using this analysis as it fits the underlying POD model used here. The approach is conservative and is designed to provide a larger flaw size compared to the POD approach. Such NDE technique assessment approach, although, not as rigorous as POD, can be cost effective if the larger flaw size can be tolerated. Typically, this is a situation for all quality control NDE inspections. Here, an NDE technique needs to be reliable and 𝑎90/95 is not estimated, but the assessed flaw size is assumed to be larger than the unknown a90 due to conservative factors or margins. Applicability of the approach for assessing reliability of flaw detection in x-ray radiography and 2D imaging in general is also explored.

Koshti, Ajay M.↗
NASA NTRS1986

The design of a turboshaft speed governor using modern control techniques

The objectives of this program were: to verify the model of off schedule compressor variable geometry in the T700 turboshaft engine nonlinear model; to evaluate the use of the pseudo-random binary noise (PRBN) technique for obtaining engine frequency response data; and to design a high performance power turbine speed governor using modern control methods. Reduction of T700 engine test data generated at NASA-Lewis indicated that the off schedule variable geometry effects were accurate as modeled. Analysis also showed that the PRBN technique combined with the maximum likelihood model identification method produced a Bode frequency response that was as accurate as the response obtained from standard sinewave testing methods. The frequency response verified the accuracy of linear models consisting of engine partial derivatives and used for design. A power turbine governor was designed using the Linear Quadratic Regulator (LQR) method of full state feedback control. A Kalman filter observer was used to estimate helicopter main rotor blade velocity. Compared to the baseline T700 power turbine speed governor, the LQR governor reduced droop up to 25 percent for a 490 shaft horsepower transient in 0.1 sec simulating a wind gust, and up to 85 percent for a 700 shaft horsepower transient in 0.5 sec simulating a large collective pitch angle transient.

Delosreyes, G.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Transfer of contrast sensitivity in linear visual networks

Contrast sensitivity is a useful measure of the ability of an observer to distinguish contrast signals from noise. Although usually applied to human observers, contrast sensitivity can also be defined operationally for individual visual neurons. In a model linear neuron consisting of a filter and noise source, this operational measure is a function of filter gain, noise power spectrum, signal duration, and a performance criterion. This definition allows one to relate the sensitivities of linear neurons at different levels in the visual pathway. Mathematical formulas describing these relationships are derived, and the general model is applied to the specific problem of relating the sensitivities of parvocellular LGN neurons and cortical simple cells in the primate.

Watson, Andrew B.↗
NASA NTRS1978

Application of LANDSAT satellite imagery and oceanographic data for verification of an upwelling mathematical model

The author has identified the following significant results. Data obtained during the cruise of the Cabo Frio and from LANDSAT imagery are used to discuss the characteristics of a linear model which simulates wind induced currents calculated from meteorological conditions at the time of the mission. There is a significant correspondance between the model of simulated horizontal water circulation, sea surface temperature, and surface currents observed on LANDSAT imagery. Close approximations were also observed between the simulation of vertical water movement (upwelling) and the oceanographic measurements taken along a series of points of the prevailing currents.

Dejesusparada, N.↗
NASA NTRS1984

Pilot modeling, modal analysis, and control of large flexible aircraft

The issues to be addressed are threefold. The first deals with the question of whether dynamic aeroelastic effects can significantly impact piloted flight dynamics. For example, if one were to explore this problem experimentally, what mathematical model would be appropriate to use in the simulation? What modes, for example, should be included in the simulation, or what linear model should be used in the control synthesis? The second question deals with the appropriate design criteria or design objectives. In the case of active control, for example, what would be the design objectives for the control synthesis if aeroelastic effects are a problem? The outline of the topics includes a description of a model analysis methodology aimed at answering the question of the significance of higher order dynamics. Secondly, a pilot vehicle analysis of some experimental data addresses the question of ""What's important in the task?'' The experimental data will be presented briefly, followed by the results of an open-loop modal analysis of the generic vehicle configurations in question. Finally, one of the vehicles will be augmented via active control and the results presented.

Schmidt, D. K.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Spectral reflectance of surface soils: Relationships with some soil properties

Using a published atlas of reflectance curves and physicochemical properties of soils, a statistical analysis was carried out. Reflectance bands which correspond to five of the wavebands used by NASA's Thematic Mapper were examined for relationships to specific soil properties. The properties considered in this study include: Sand Content, Silt Content, Clay Content, Organic Matter Content, Cation Exchange Capacity, Iron Oxide Content and Moisture Content. Regression of these seven properties on the mean values of five TM bands produced results that indicate that the predictability of the properties can be increased by stratifying the data. The data was stratified by parent material, taxonomic order, temperature zone, moisture zone and climate (combined temperature and moisture). The best results were obtained when the sample was examined by climatic classes. The middle Infra-red bands, 5 and 7, as well as the visible bands, 2 and 3, are significant in the model. The near Infra-red band, band 4, is almost as useful and should be included in any studies. General linear modeling procedures examined relationships of the seven properties with certain wavebands in the stratified samples.

Kiesewetter, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Recursive Linearization Of Dynamical Models Of Manipulators

Report shows how spatial-operator algebra developed by authors used to derive linearized mathematical models of dynamics of robotic manipulators. Aspects of spatial-operator algebra also described in "Robot Control Based On Spatial-Operator Algebra" (NPO-17918), "Unified Formulation Of Dynamics Of Robot Arms" (NPO-18040), and "Spatial-Operator Algebra For Robotic Manipulators" (NPO-17770).

Jain, Abhinandan↗
NASA NTRS1995

Multiparameter linear least-squares fitting to Poisson data one count at a time

A standard problem in gamma-ray astronomy data analysis is the decomposition of a set of observed counts, described by Poisson statistics, according to a given multicomponent linear model, with underlying physical count rates or fluxes which are to be estimated from the data. Despite its conceptual simplicity, the linear least-squares (LLSQ) method for solving this problem has generally been limited to situations in which the number n(sub i) of counts in each bin i is not too small, conventionally more than 5-30. It seems to be widely believed that the failure of the LLSQ method for small counts is due to the failure of the Poisson distribution to be even approximately normal for small numbers. The cause is more accurately the strong anticorrelation between the data and the wieghts w(sub i) in the weighted LLSQ method when square root of n(sub i) instead of square root of bar-n(sub i) is used to approximate the uncertainties, sigma(sub i), in the data, where bar-n(sub i) = E(n(sub i)), the expected value of N(sub i). We show in an appendix that, avoiding this approximation, the correct equations for the Poisson LLSQ (PLLSQ) problems are actually identical to those for the maximum likelihood estimate using the exact Poisson distribution. We apply the method to solve a problem in high-resolution gamma-ray spectroscopy for the JPL High-Resolution Gamma-Ray Spectrometer flown on HEAO 3. Systematic error in subtracting the strong, highly variable background encountered in the low-energy gamma-ray region can be significantly reduced by closely pairing source and background data in short segments. Significant results can be built up by weighted averaging of the net fluxes obtained from the subtraction of many individual source/background pairs. Extension of the approach to complex situations, with multiple cosmic sources and realistic background parameterizations, requires a means of efficiently fitting to data from single scans in the narrow (approximately = 1.2 keV, HEAO 3) energy channels of a Ge spectrometer, where the expected number of counts obtained per scan may be very low. Such an analysis system is discussed and compared to the method previously used.

Wheaton, Wm. A.↗
NASA NTRS2006

Convective Weather Forecast Quality Metrics for Air Traffic Management Decision-Making

Since numerical weather prediction models are unable to accurately forecast the severity and the location of the storm cells several hours into the future when compared with observation data, there has been a growing interest in probabilistic description of convective weather. The classical approach for generating uncertainty bounds consists of integrating the state equations and covariance propagation equations forward in time. This step is readily recognized as the process update step of the Kalman Filter algorithm. The second well known method, known as the Monte Carlo method, consists of generating output samples by driving the forecast algorithm with input samples selected from distributions. The statistical properties of the distributions of the output samples are then used for defining the uncertainty bounds of the output variables. This method is computationally expensive for a complex model compared to the covariance propagation method. The main advantage of the Monte Carlo method is that a complex non-linear model can be easily handled. Recently, a few different methods for probabilistic forecasting have appeared in the literature. A method for computing probability of convection in a region using forecast data is described in Ref. 5. Probability at a grid location is computed as the fraction of grid points, within a box of specified dimensions around the grid location, with forecast convection precipitation exceeding a specified threshold. The main limitation of this method is that the results are dependent on the chosen dimensions of the box. The examples presented Ref. 5 show that this process is equivalent to low-pass filtering of the forecast data with a finite support spatial filter. References 6 and 7 describe the technique for computing percentage coverage within a 92 x 92 square-kilometer box and assigning the value to the center 4 x 4 square-kilometer box. This technique is same as that described in Ref. 5. Characterizing the forecast, following the process described in Refs. 5 through 7, in terms of percentage coverage or confidence level is notionally sound compared to characterizing in terms of probabilities because the probability of the forecast being correct can only be determined using actual observations. References 5 through 7 only use the forecast data and not the observations. The method for computing the probability of detection, false alarm ratio and several forecast quality metrics (Skill Scores) using both the forecast and observation data are given in Ref. 2. This paper extends the statistical verification method in Ref. 2 to determine co-occurrence probabilities. The method consists of computing the probability that a severe weather cell (grid location) is detected in the observation data in the neighborhood of the severe weather cell in the forecast data. Probabilities of occurrence at the grid location and in its neighborhood with higher severity, and with lower severity in the observation data compared to that in the forecast data are examined. The method proposed in Refs. 5 through 7 is used for computing the probability that a certain number of cells in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in the forecast data are seen as severe weather cells in the observation data. Finally, the probability of existence of gaps in the observation data in the neighborhood of severe weather cells in forecast data is computed. Gaps are defined as openings between severe weather cells through which an aircraft can safely fly to its intended destination. The rest of the paper is organized as follows. Section II summarizes the statistical verification method described in Ref. 2. The extension of this method for computing the co-occurrence probabilities in discussed in Section HI. Numerical examples using NCWF forecast data and NCWD observation data are presented in Section III to elucidate the characteristics of the co-occurrence probabilities. This section also discusses the procedure for computing throbabilities that the severity of convection in the observation data will be higher or lower in the neighborhood of grid locations compared to that indicated at the grid locations in the forecast data. The probability of coverage of neighborhood grid cells is also described via examples in this section. Section IV discusses the gap detection algorithm and presents a numerical example to illustrate the method. The locations of the detected gaps in the observation data are used along with the locations of convective weather cells in the forecast data to determine the probability of existence of gaps in the neighborhood of these cells. Finally, the paper is concluded in Section V.

Chatterji, Gano B.↗
NASA NTRS2005

Linear Multivariable Regression Models for Prediction of Eddy Dissipation Rate from Available Meteorological Data

Linear multivariable regression models for predicting day and night Eddy Dissipation Rate (EDR) from available meteorological data sources are defined and validated. Model definition is based on a combination of 1997-2000 Dallas/Fort Worth (DFW) data sources, EDR from Aircraft Vortex Spacing System (AVOSS) deployment data, and regression variables primarily from corresponding Automated Surface Observation System (ASOS) data. Model validation is accomplished through EDR predictions on a similar combination of 1994-1995 Memphis (MEM) AVOSS and ASOS data. Model forms include an intercept plus a single term of fixed optimal power for each of these regression variables; 30-minute forward averaged mean and variance of near-surface wind speed and temperature, variance of wind direction, and a discrete cloud cover metric. Distinct day and night models, regressing on EDR and the natural log of EDR respectively, yield best performance and avoid model discontinuity over day/night data boundaries.

MCKissick, Burnell T.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Vibration characteristics of the HPOTP (High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump) of the SSME (Space Shuttle Main Engine)

A review is presented of various rotordynamic problems which have been encountered and eliminated in developing the current flight engines, and continuing subsynchronous problems which are being encountered in developing a 109% power level engine. The basic model for the High Pressure Oxygen Turbopump (HPOTP) of the SSME including the structural dynamic model for the rotor and housing and component models for the liquid and gas seals, turbine-clearance excitation forces, and impeller-diffuser forces are discussed. Results from a linear model are used to examine the synchronous response and stability characteristics of the HPOTP, examining bearing load and stability problems associated with the second critical speed. Various seal modifications are examined and shown to have favorable consequences with respect to bearing reactions and stability.

Childs, D. W.↗
NASA NTRS1983

Partial and robust linearization by feedback

It is argued that if the nonlinearities in a system are mild, and the controller is sufficiently stabilizing, the inaccuracies of a linear model, which is often taken to be sufficient for a controller design, can be safely neglected. For systems with severe nonlinearity a linearizing technique is described, based on the change of state coordinates and nonlinear feedback; in the total context of a stable feedback design the linearization technique is considered robust. Furthermore, attention is paid to partial linearization using the same transformations. It is found that there always exist maximally linearizing transformations which are not necessarily unique.

Krener, A. J.↗
NASA NTRS1986

Analytic models of the chemical evolution of galaxies

Techniques are described for constructing analytic models of the chemical evolution of galaxies subject to infall of metal-poor material onto a maturing disk. A class of linear models is discussed which takes the star-formation rate within a defined region to be proportional to the mass of interstellar gas within that region, and the instantaneous recycling approximation is adopted. The solutions are obtained by approximately matching the infall rate to parametrized familiies of functions for which the equations are exactly soluble. The masses, the primary and secondary metallicities, and the gas concentrations of radioactive chronometers can all then be analytically expressed. Surveys of galactic abundances in location and in time can be compared to the parameter spaces of the analytic representations.

Clayton, Donald D.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Tether damping in space

This paper analyzes the dynamics of a long tether connecting two spacecraft in earth orbit, one of the spacecraft having dominant mass. In particular, it considers the material damping of the tether. The nominal position of the tether is stabilized by the gravity gradient such that it is aligned with the local vertical. The tether is modeled as a viscoelastic flexible continuum. Modal frequencies are derived in an analytical approximation form. Damping ratios are estimated according to the linear model calibrated by ground measurements. The results show that, with properly chosen tether material and braiding structure, longitudinal vibrations of the tethered system are well damped.

Powell, J. David↗
NASA NTRS1983

Control design and performance analysis of a 6 MW wind turbine-generator

This paper discusses an approach to the modeling and performance for the preliminary design phase of a large (6.2 MW) horizontal axis wind turbine generator (WTG). Two control philosophies are presented, both of which are based on linearized models of the WT mechanical and electrical systems. The control designs are compared by showing the performance through detailed non-linear time simulation. The disturbances considered are wind gusts, and electrical faults near the WT terminals.

Murdoch, A.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Aerodynamic control of NASP-type vehicles through vortex manipulation, volume 4

Forebody Vortex Control (FVC) is an emerging technology that has received widespread and concentrated attention by many researchers for application on fighter aircraft to enhance aerodynamic controllability at high angles of attack. This research explores potential application of FVC to a NASP-type configuration. The configuration investigated is characterized by a slender, circular cross-section forebody and a 78 deg swept delta wing. A man-in-the-loop, six-degress-of-freedom, high-fidelity simulation was developed that demonstrates the implementation and advantages of pneumatic forebody vortex control. Static wind tunnel tests were used as the basis for the aerodynamic characteristics modeled in the simulation. Dynamic free-to-roll wind tunnel tests were analyzed and the wing rock motion investigated. A non-linear model of the dynamic effects of the bare airframe and the forebody vortex control system were developed that closely represented the observed behavior. Multiple state-of-the-art digital flight control systems were developed that included different utilizations of pneumatic vortex control. These were evaluated through manned simulation. Design parameters for a pneumatic forebody vortex control system were based on data collected regarding the use of blowing and the mass flow required during realistic flight maneuvers.

Smith, Brooke C.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Model Predictive Control Strategies for Turbine Electrified Energy Management

The increasing electrification of aircraft propulsion systems is leading to new control architectures being developed to address integration between electric machines and gas-based turbine engines. For hybrid-electric propulsion systems, current conceptual architectures often couple electric machines with the shafts of gas turbine engines and introduce energy storage. Leveraging the electrical power system of hybridized engines, Turbine Electrified Energy Management (TEEM) is a recent control approach that improves transient operability in an effort to enable more efficient and lighter weight turbomachinery. This study seeks to expand TEEM’s application beyond traditional proportional integral (PI) control by presenting linear model predictive control (MPC) schemes to execute the TEEM concept. Through constraint selection and cost function design, transient operability goals for TEEM are considered with no external logic or saturation. Unique to the designs are the use of a washout filter, which simplifies transient detection and motor activation logic. The proposed architectures are implemented with both centralized MPC and distributed MPC approaches, and comparisons are drawn to a benchmark PI controller simulated on a nonlinear turbofan engine model at one ground condition and one cruise condition. Performance is evaluated using compressor maps, stall margin performance, and two novel metrics: transient stack usage and transient excursion integral. Results reveal the linear MPC scheme performs comparably to the baseline controller and can be implemented in at least two distinct configurations with potential for further modifications, thus establishing the groundwork for future investigations.

Model Predictive Control↗