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At least 307 records · Page 17

Simulation of the Onset of the Southeast Asian Monsoon during 1997 and 1998: The Impact of Surface Processes

The onset of the southeast Asian monsoon during 1997 and 1998 was simulated by coupling a mesoscale atmospheric model (MM5) and a detailed, land surface model, PLACE (the Parameterization for Land-Atmosphere-Cloud Exchange). The rainfall results from the simulations were compared with observed satellite data from the TRMM (Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission) TMI (TRMM Microwave Imager) and GPCP (Global Precipitation Climatology Project). The control simulation with the PLACE land surface model and variable sea surface temperature captured the basic signatures of the monsoon onset processes and associated rainfall statistics. Sensitivity tests indicated that simulations were significantly improved by including the PLACE land surface model. The mechanism by which the land surface processes affect the moisture transport and the convection during the onset of the southeast Asian monsoon were analyzed. The results indicated that land surface processes played an important role in modifying the low-level wind field over two major branches of the circulation: the southwest low-level flow over the Indo-China peninsula and the northern, cold frontal intrusion from southern China. The surface sensible and latent heat fluxes modified the low-level temperature distribution and merit, and therefore the low-level wind due to the thermal wind effect. The more realistic forcing of the sensible and latent heat fluxes from the detailed, land surface model improved the low-level wind simulation and associated moisture transport and convection.

Wang, Yansen↗

Convective Systems Over the Japan Sea: Cloud-Resolving Model Simulations

Wintertime observations of MCSs (Mesoscale Convective Systems) over the Sea of Japan - 2001 (WMO-01) were collected from January 12 to February 1, 2001. One of the major objectives is to better understand and forecast snow systems and accompanying disturbances and the associated key physical processes involved in the formation and development of these disturbances. Multiple observation platforms (e.g., upper-air soundings, Doppler radar, wind profilers, radiometers, etc.) during WMO-01 provided a first attempt at investigating the detailed characteristics of convective storms and air pattern changes associated with winter storms over the Sea of Japan region. WMO-01 also provided estimates of the apparent heat source (Q1) and apparent moisture sink (Q2). The vertical integrals of Q1 and Q2 are equal to the surface precipitation rates. The horizontal and vertical adjective components of Q1 and Q2 can be used as large-scale forcing for the Cloud Resolving Models (CRMs). The Goddard Cumulus Ensemble (GCE) model is a CRM (typically run with a 1-km grid size). The GCE model has sophisticated microphysics and allows explicit interactions between clouds, radiation, and surface processes. It will be used to understand and quantify precipitation processes associated with wintertime convective systems over the Sea of Japan (using data collected during the WMO-01). This is the first cloud-resolving model used to simulate precipitation processes in this particular region. The GCE model-simulated WMO-01 results will also be compared to other GCE model-simulated weather systems that developed during other field campaigns (i.e., South China Sea, west Pacific warm pool region, eastern Atlantic region and central USA).

Tao, Wei-Kuo↗

Validation of turbulence intensity as simulated by the Weather Research and Forecasting model off the US northeast coast

We report turbulence intensity (TI) is often used to quantify the strength of turbulence in wind energy applications and serves as the basis of standards in wind turbine design. Thus, accurately characterizing the spatiotemporal variability in TI should lead to improved predictions of power production. Nevertheless, turbulence measurements over the ocean are far less prevalent than over land due to challenges in instrumental deployment, maintenance, and operation. Atmospheric models such as mesoscale (weather prediction) and large-eddy simulation (LES) models are commonly used in the wind energy industry to assess the spatial variability of a given site. However, the TI derivation from atmospheric models has not been well examined. An algorithm is proposed in this study to realize online calculation of TI in the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model. Simulated TI is divided into two components depending on scale, including sub-grid (parameterized based on turbulence kinetic energy (TKE)) and grid resolved. The sensitivity of sea surface temperature (SST) on simulated TI is also tested. An assessment is performed by using observations collected during a field campaign conducted from February to June 2020 near the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution Martha's Vineyard Coastal Observatory. Results show that while simulated TKE is generally smaller than the lidar-observed value, wind speed bias is usually small. Overall, this leads to a slight underestimation in sub-grid-scale estimated TI. Improved SST representation subsequently reduces model biases in atmospheric stability as well as wind speed and sub-grid TI near the hub height. Large TI events in conjunction with mesoscale weather systems observed during the studied period pose a challenge to accurately estimating TI from models. Due to notable uncertainty in accurately simulating those events, this suggests summing up sub-grid and resolved TI may not be an ideal solution. Efforts in further improving skills in simulating mesoscale flow and cloud systems are necessary as the next steps.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Growth of Mesoscale Convective Systems in Observations and a Seasonal Convection-Permitting Simulation over Argentina

Abstract A 6.5-month, convection-permitting simulation is conducted over Argentina covering the Remote Sensing of Electrification, Lightning, And Mesoscale/Microscale Processes with Adaptive Ground Observations and Clouds, Aerosols, and Complex Terrain Interactions (RELAMPAGO-CACTI) field campaign and is compared with observations to evaluate mesoscale convective system (MCS) growth prediction. Observed and simulated MCSs are consistently identified, tracked, and separated into growth, mature, and decay stages using top-of-the-atmosphere infrared brightness temperature and surface rainfall. Simulated MCS number, lifetime, seasonal and diurnal cycles, and various cloud-shield characteristics including growth rate are similar to those observed. However, the simulation produces smaller rainfall areas, greater proportions of heavy rainfall, and faster system propagations. Rainfall area is significantly underestimated for long-lived MCSs but not for shorter-lived MCSs, and rain rates are always overestimated. These differences result from a combination of model and satellite retrieval biases, in which simulated MCS rain rates are shifted from light to heavy, while satellite-retrieved rainfall is too frequent relative to rain gauge estimates. However, the simulation reproduces satellite-retrieved MCS cloud-shield evolution well, supporting its usage to examine environmental controls on MCS growth. MCS initiation locations are associated with removal of convective inhibition more than maximized low-level moisture convergence or instability. Rapid growth is associated with a stronger upper-level jet (ULJ) and a deeper northwestern Argentinean low that causes a stronger northerly low-level jet (LLJ), increasing heat and moisture fluxes, low-level vertical wind shear, baroclinicity, and instability. Sustained growth corresponds to similar LLJ, baroclinicity, and instability conditions but is less sensitive to the ULJ, large-scale vertical motion, or low-level shear. Growth sustenance controls MCS maximum extent more than growth rate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Numerical simulations of convectively generated stratospheric gravity waves

A 2D model of a mesoscale convective flow is used to simulate the excitation and vertical propagation of gravity waves. Data obtained show that, in the absence of storm-relative mean winds in the stratosphere, the primary mode of excitation of gravity waves is by mechanical forcing owing to oscillatory updrafts. The stratospheric response consists of waves whose periods match the primary periods of the forcing. Due to the tendency of the oscillating updrafts to propagate toward the rear of the storm, gravity wave propagation is limited primarily to the rearward direction. Results suggest that squall-line-generated gravity waves arise from mechanical forcing rather than thermal effects.

Fovell, R.↗

The Water Budget of a Simulated Hurricane

The Pennsylvania State University-National Center for Atmospheric Research mesoscale model MM5 is used to simulate Hurricane Bonnie at high resolution (2-km spacing) in order to examine budgets of water vapor, cloud condensate, and precipitation. Virtually all budget terms are derived directly from the model (except for the effects of storm motion). The water vapor budget reveals that a majority of the condensation in the eyewall occurs in convective hot towers, while outside of the eyewall most of the condensation occurs in weaker updrafts, indicative of a larger role of stratiform precipitation processes. The ocean source of water vapor in the eyewall region is only a very small fraction of that transported inward in the boundary layer inflow or that condensed in the updrafts. In contrast, in the outer regions, the ocean vapor source is larger owing to the larger area, counters the drying effect of low-level subsidence, and enhances the moisture transported in toward the eyewall. In this mature storm, cloud condensate is consumed as rapidly as it is produced. Cloud water peaks at the top of the boundary layer and within the melting layer, where cooling from melting enhances condensation. Unlike in squall lines, in the hurricane, very little condensate produced in the eyewall convection is transported outward into the surrounding precipitation area. Most of the mass ejected outward is likely in the form of small snow particles that seed the outer regions and enhance in situ stratiform precipitation development through additional growth by vapor deposition and aggregation. We examine artificial source terms for cloud and precipitation mass associated with setting to zero negative mixing ratios that arise from numerical advection errors. Although small at any given point and time, the cumulative effect of these terms contributes an amount of mass equivalent to 13% of the total condensation and 15-20% of the precipitation. Thus, these terms must be accounted for to balance the model budgets and the results suggest the need for improved model numerics.

Braun, S.↗

Evaluation of Cloud-Resolving and Limited Area Model Intercomparison Simulations Using TWP-ICE Observations: Precipitation Microphysics - Part 2

Ten 3-D cloud-resolving model (CRM) simulations and four 3-D limited area model (LAM) simulations of an intense mesoscale convective system observed on 23-24 January 2006 during the Tropical Warm Pool-International Cloud Experiment (TWP-ICE) are compared with each other and with observations and retrievals from a scanning polarimetric radar, colocated UHF and VHF vertical profilers, and a Joss-Waldvogel disdrometer in an attempt to explain a low bias in simulated stratiform rainfall. Despite different forcing methodologies, similar precipitation microphysics errors appear in CRMs and LAMs with differences that depend on the details of the bulk microphysics scheme used. One-moment schemes produce too many small raindrops, which biases Doppler velocities low, but produces rainwater contents (RWCs) that are similar to observed. Two-moment rain schemes with a gamma shape parameter (mu) of 0 produce excessive size sorting, which leads to larger Doppler velocities than those produced in one-moment schemes but lower RWCs. Two-moment schemes also produce a convective median volume diameter distribution that is too broad relative to observations and, thus, may have issues balancing raindrop formation, collision-coalescence, and raindrop breakup. Assuming a mu of 2.5 rather than 0 for the raindrop size distribution improves one-moment scheme biases, and allowing mu to have values greater than 0 may improve excessive size sorting in two-moment schemes. Underpredicted stratiform rain rates are associated with underpredicted ice water contents at the melting level rather than excessive rain evaporation, in turn likely associated with convective detrainment that is too high in the troposphere and mesoscale circulations that are too weak. A limited domain size also prevents a large, well-developed stratiform region like the one observed from developing in CRMs, although LAMs also fail to produce such a region.

three dimensional models↗

Development of Accelerated Kinetic Monte Carlo Code for Simulation of Helium Bubble Evolution

A mesoscale model to predict helium bubble evolution is needed for tritium applications. Such a model requires that the conventional kinetic Monte Carlo (kMC) simulations be significantly accelerated. The objective of this report is to (a) highlight the concepts and mathematical expressions of the accelerated method for defect implementation that have not been published, (b) show an example input file to run the kMC code, and (c) provide suggestions on future improvement following my retirement.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

A 12-year (1987-1998) Ensemble Simulation of the US Climate with a Variable Resolution Stretched Grid GCM

The variable-resolution stretched-grid (SG) GEOS (Goddard Earth Observing System) GCM has been used for limited ensemble integrations with a relatively coarse, 60 to 100 km, regional resolution over the U.S. The experiments have been run for the 12-year period, 1987-1998, that includes the recent ENSO cycles. Initial conditions 1-2 days apart are used for ensemble members. The goal of the experiments is analyzing the long-term SG-GCM ensemble integrations in terms of their potential in reducing the uncertainties of regional climate simulation while producing realistic mesoscales. The ensemble integration results are analyzed for both prognostic and diagnostic fields. A special attention is devoted to analyzing the variability of precipitation over the U.S. The internal variability of the SG-GCM has been assessed. The ensemble means appear to be closer to the verifying analyses than the individual ensemble members. The ensemble means capture realistic mesoscale patterns, especially those of induced by orography. Two ENSO cycles have been analyzed in terms their impact on the U.S. climate, especially on precipitation. The ability of the SG-GCM simulations to produce regional climate anomalies has been confirmed. However, the optimal size of the ensembles depending on fine regional resolution used, is still to be determined. The SG-GCM ensemble simulations are performed as a preparation or a preliminary stage for the international SGMIP (Stretched-Grid Model Intercomparison Project) that is under way with participation of the major centers and groups employing the SG-approach for regional climate modeling.

Fox-Rabinovitz, Michael S.↗

Simulation of the effects of biomass burning in a mesoscale convective system in the central amazon

During the dry season of 2014, the formation of a mesoscale convective system (MCS) caused intense precipitation and strong winds in the central Amazon region. In this period, cases of MCS that occurred during the days when there were higher concentrations of CO were analyzed. Through this criterion, a case of MCS occurred on August 16th, 2014 was selected. We used the chemical-atmospheric model WRF-Chem to assess the influence of biomass burning aerosol on the intensity of precipitation, winds, vertical and horizontal transport associated with this convective system. We show that biomass burning aerosol reduces the strength of the mesoscale convective system, with less vertical and horizontal transport of carbon monoxide and ozone. Here, in the absence of biomass burning aerosol downdrafts and precipitation rate are more intense, and cloud development up to 5km is more developed, making the horizontal flow and vertical transport of ozone more intense, however, much more efficient in reducing the concentrations of other gases.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Bulk and surface diffusion of neodymium in alpha-uranium: Ab initio calculations and kinetic Monte Carlo simulations

A fundamental understanding of lanthanide transport in metallic fuels is critical for high fidelity modeling of the fuel-cladding chemical interaction (FCCI) phenomenon, which can lead to the formation of brittle intermetallic compounds and premature failure of the cladding. Here we report a combined ab initio density functional theory (DFT) and kinetic Monte Carlo (KMC) study of the bulk diffusivity of Nd in α-U, fully taking into account the effect of radiation enhanced diffusion. In this work, the vacancy mechanism is considered to be the dominant mechanism for the bulk diffusion of Nd since a Nd interstitial is found to be intrinsically unstable in α-U. The surface diffusivity of a Nd adatom on α-U (001) surface has been further predicted using KMC simulations parameterized by DFT calculations. The present study suggests that Nd transport via the surface diffusion mechanism can be many orders of magnitude faster than bulk diffusion. Furthermore, the results from the present lower length scale study can be used to inform mesoscale phase-field simulations to determine the effective diffusion coefficient of Nd through α-U with a porous microstructure.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data, including NCEP reanalysis data and METEOSAT 7 IR satellite imagery, and performing numerical simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no sub-grid cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and thus the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres, leading to the formation of the TCs. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (1) wave deepening (intensification) associated with a reduction in wavelength and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with boundary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

forecast↗

Genesis of Twin Tropical Cyclones as Revealed by a Global Mesoscale Model: The Role of Mixed Rossby Gravity Waves

In this study, it is proposed that twin tropical cyclones (TCs), Kesiny and 01A, in May 2002 formed in association with the scale interactions of three gyres that appeared as a convectively-coupled mixed Rossby gravity (ccMRG) wave during an active phase of the Madden-Julian Oscillation (MJO). This is shown by analyzing observational data and performing simulations using a global mesoscale model. A 10-day control run is initialized at 0000 UTC 1 May 2002 with grid-scale condensation but no cumulus parameterizations. The ccMRG wave was identified as encompassing two developing and one non-developing gyres, the first two of which intensified and evolved into the twin TCs. The control run is able to reproduce the evolution of the ccMRG wave and the formation of the twin TCs about two and five days in advance as well as their subsequent intensity evolution and movement within an 8-10 day period. Five additional 10-day sensitivity experiments with different model configurations are conducted to help understand the interaction of the three gyres. These experiments suggest the improved lead time in the control run may be attributed to the realistic simulation of the ccMRG wave with the following processes: (I) wave deepening associated with wave shortening and/or the intensification of individual gyres, (2) poleward movement of gyres that may be associated with bOlll1dary layer processes, (3) realistic simulation of moist processes at regional scales in association with each of the gyres, and (4) the vertical phasing of low- and mid-level cyclonic circulations associated with a specific gyre.

Shen, Bo-Wen↗

Mesoscale Convective Systems Tracking Method Intercomparison (MCSMIP): Application to DYAMOND Global km‐Scale Simulations

Abstract Global kilometer‐scale models represent the future of Earth system modeling, enabling explicit simulation of organized convective storms and their associated extreme weather. Here, we comprehensively evaluate tropical mesoscale convective system (MCS) characteristics in the DYAMOND (DYnamics of the atmospheric general circulation modeled on non‐hydrostatic domains) simulations for both summer and winter phases. Using 10 different feature trackers applied to simulations and satellite observations, we assess MCS frequency, precipitation, and other key characteristics. Substantial differences (a factor of 2–3) arise among trackers in observed MCS frequency and their precipitation contribution, but model‐observation differences in MCS statistics are more consistent across trackers. DYAMOND models are generally skillful in simulating tropical mean MCS frequency, with multi‐model mean biases ranging from −2%–8% over land and −8%–8% over ocean (summer vs. winter). However, most DYAMOND models underestimate MCS precipitation amount (23%) and their contribution to total precipitation (17%). Biases in precipitation contributions are generally smaller over land (13%) than over ocean (21%), with moderate inter‐model variability. While models better simulate MCS diurnal cycles and cloud shield characteristics, they overestimate MCS precipitation intensity and underestimate stratiform rain contributions (up to a factor of 2), particularly over land, albeit observational uncertainties exist. Additionally, models exhibit a wide range of precipitable water in the tropics compared to reanalysis and satellite observations, with many models showing exaggerated sensitivity of MCS precipitation intensity to precipitable water. The MCS metrics developed here provide process‐oriented diagnostics to guide future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Efficacy of the Cell Perturbation Method in Large-Eddy Simulations of Boundary Layer Flow over Complex Terrain

A challenge to simulating turbulent flow in multiscale atmospheric applications is the efficient generation of resolved turbulence motions over an area of interest. One approach is to apply small perturbations to flow variables near the inflow planes of turbulence-resolving simulation domains nested within larger mesoscale domains. While this approach has been examined in numerous idealized and simple terrain cases, its efficacy in complex terrain environments has not yet been fully explored. Here, we examine the benefits of the stochastic cell perturbation method (CPM) over real complex terrain using data from the 2017 Perdigão field campaign, conducted in an approximately 2-km wide valley situated between two nearly parallel ridges. Following a typical configuration for multiscale simulation using nested domains within the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model to downscale from the mesoscale to a large-eddy simulation (LES), we apply the CPM on a domain with horizontal grid spacing of 150 m. At this resolution, spurious coherent structures are often observed under unstable atmospheric conditions with moderate mean wind speeds. Results from such an intermediate resolution grid are often nested down for finer, more detailed LES, where these spurious structures adversely affect the development of turbulence on the subsequent finer grid nest. We therefore examine the impacts of the CPM on the representation of turbulence within the nested LES domain under moderate mean flow conditions in three different stability regimes: weakly convective, strongly convective, and weakly stable. In addition, two different resolutions of the underlying terrain are used to explore the role of the complex topography itself in generating turbulent structures. We demonstrate that the CPM improves the representation of turbulence within the LES domain, relative to the use of high-resolution complex terrain alone. During the convective conditions, the CPM improves the rate at which smaller-scales of turbulence form, while also accelerating the attenuation of the spurious numerically generated roll structures near the inflow boundary. During stable conditions, the coarse mesh spacing of the intermediate LES domain used herein was insufficient to maintain resolved turbulence using CPM as the flow develops downstream, highlighting the need for yet higher resolution under even weakly stable conditions, and the importance of accurate representation of flow on intermediate LES grids.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

Electrode Mesoscale as a Collection of Particles: Coupled Electrochemical and Mechanical Analysis of NMC Cathodes

Battery electrodes are composed of polydisperse particles and a porous, composite binder domain. These materials are arranged into a complex mesostructure whose morphology impacts both electrochemical performance and mechanical response. We present image-based, particle-resolved, mesoscale finite element model simulations of coupled electrochemical-mechanical performance on a representative NMC electrode domain. Beyond predicting macroscale quantities such as half-cell voltage and evolving electrical conductivity, studying behaviors on a per-particle and per-surface basis enables performance and material design insights previously unachievable. Voltage losses are primarily attributable to a complex interplay between interfacial charge transfer kinetics, lithium diffusion, and, locally, electrical conductivity. Mesoscale heterogeneities arise from particle polydispersity and lead to material underutilization at high current densities. Particle-particle contacts, however, reduce heterogeneities by enabling lithium diffusion between connected particle groups. While the porous composite binder domain (CBD) may have slower ionic transport and less available area for electrochemical reactions, its high electrical conductivity makes it the preferred reaction site late in electrode discharge. Mesoscale results are favorably compared to both experimental data and macrohomogeneous models. This work enables improvements in materials design by providing a tool for optimization of particle sizes, CBD morphology, and manufacturing conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Application of Land Surface Data Assimilation to Simulations of Sea Breeze Circulations

A technique has been developed for assimilating GOES-derived skin temperature tendencies and insolation into the surface energy budget equation of a mesoscale model so that the simulated rate of temperature change closely agrees with the satellite observations. A critical assumption of the technique is that the availability of moisture (either from the soil or vegetation) is the least known term in the model's surface energy budget. Therefore, the simulated latent heat flux, which is a function of surface moisture availability, is adjusted based upon differences between the modeled and satellite- observed skin temperature tendencies. An advantage of this technique is that satellite temperature tendencies are assimilated in an energetically consistent manner that avoids energy imbalances and surface stability problems that arise from direct assimilation of surface shelter temperatures. The fact that the rate of change of the satellite skin temperature is used rather than the absolute temperature means that sensor calibration is not as critical. The sea/land breeze is a well-documented mesoscale circulation that affects many coastal areas of the world including the northern Gulf Coast of the United States. The focus of this paper is to examine how the satellite assimilation technique impacts the simulation of a sea breeze circulation observed along the Mississippi/Alabama coast in the spring of 2001. The technique is implemented within the PSUNCAR MM5 V3-5 and applied at spatial resolutions of 12- and 4-km. It is recognized that even 4-km grid spacing is too coarse to explicitly resolve the detailed, mesoscale structure of sea breezes. Nevertheless, the model can forecast certain characteristics of the observed sea breeze including a thermally direct circulation that results from differential low-level heating across the land-sea interface. Our intent is to determine the sensitivity of the circulation to the differential land surface forcing produced via the assimilation of GOES skin temperature tendencies. Results will be quantified through statistical verification techniques.

Mackaro, Scott↗