Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “modeling discrepancy”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS2013

Bayesian Revision of Residual Detection Power

This paper addresses some issues with quality assessment and quality assurance in response surface modeling experiments executed in wind tunnels. The role of data volume on quality assurance for response surface models is reviewed. Specific wind tunnel response surface modeling experiments are considered for which apparent discrepancies exist between fit quality expectations based on implemented quality assurance tactics, and the actual fit quality achieved in those experiments. These discrepancies are resolved by using Bayesian inference to account for certain imperfections in the assessment methodology. Estimates of the fraction of out-of-tolerance model predictions based on traditional frequentist methods are revised to account for uncertainty in the residual assessment process. The number of sites in the design space for which residuals are out of tolerance is seen to exceed the number of sites where the model actually fails to fit the data. A method is presented to estimate how much of the design space in inadequately modeled by low-order polynomial approximations to the true but unknown underlying response function.

DeLoach, Richard↗
NASA NTRS2023

An Evaluation of A Physics-Based Firn Model and A Semi-Empirical Firn Model Across the Greenland Ice Sheet (1980–2020)

The Greenland Ice Sheet's (GrIS) firn layer buffers the ice sheet's contribution to sea level rise by storing meltwater in its pore space. However, available pore space and meltwater retention capability is lost due to ablation of the firn layer and refreezing of meltwater as near-surface ice slabs in the firn. Understanding how firn properties respond to climate is important for constraining the GrIS's future contribution to sea level rise in a warming climate. Observations of firn density provide detailed information about firn properties, but they are spatially and temporally limited. Here we use two firn models, the physics-based SNOWPACK model and the Community Firn Model configured with a semi-empirical densification equation (CFM-GSFC), to quantify firn properties across the GrIS from 1980 through 2020. We use an identical forcing (Modern-Era Retrospective Analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA-2) atmospheric reanalysis) for SNOWPACK and the CFM-GSFC in order to isolate firn model differences. To evaluate the models, we compare simulated firn properties, including firn air content (FAC), to measurements from the Surface Mass Balance and Snow on Sea Ice Working Group (SUMup) dataset of snow and firn density. Both models perform well (mean absolute percentage errors of 14 % in SNOWPACK and 16 % in the CFM-GSFC), though their performance is hindered by the spatial resolution of the atmospheric forcing. In the ice-sheet-wide simulations, the 1980–1995 average spatially integrated FAC (i.e., air volume in the firn) for the upper 100 m is 34 645 km 3 from SNOWPACK and 28 581 km 3 from the CFM-GSFC. The discrepancy in the magnitude of the modeled FAC stems from differences in densification with depth and variations in the sensitivity of the models to atmospheric forcing. In more recent years (2005–2020), both models simulate substantial depletion of pore space. During this period, the spatially integrated FAC across the entire GrIS decreases by 3.2 % (−66.6 km 3 yr −1 ) in SNOWPACK and 1.5 % (−17.4 km 3 yr −1 ) in the CFM-GSFC. These differing magnitudes demonstrate how model differences propagate throughout the FAC record. Over the full modeled record (1980–2020), SNOWPACK simulates a loss of pore space equivalent to 3 mm of sea level rise buffering, while the CFM-GSFC simulates a loss of 1 mm. The greatest depletion in FAC is along the margins and especially along the western margin where observations and models show the formation of near-surface, low-permeability ice slabs that may inhibit meltwater storage.

Megan Thompson-Munson↗
NASA NTRS1996

The Lyman-Continuum Fluxes and Stellar Parameters of O and Early B-Type Stars

Using the results of the most recent stellar atmosphere models applied to a sample of hot stars, we construct calibrations of effective temperature (T(sub eff)), and gravity (log(sub g)) with a spectral type and luminosity class for Galactic 0-type and early B-type stars. From the model results we also derive an empirical relation between the bolometric correction and T(sub eff) and log g. Using a sample of stars with known distances located in OB associations in the Galaxy and the Large Magellanic Cloud, we derive a new calibration of M(sub v) with spectral class. With these new calibrations and the stellar atmosphere models of Kurucz, we calculate the physical parameters and ionizing photon luminosities in the H(0) and He(0) continua for O and early B-type stars. We find substantial differences between our values of the Lyman- continuum luminosity and those reported in the literature. We also discuss the systematic discrepancy between O-type stellar masses derived from spectroscopic models and those derived from evolutionary tracks. Most likely, the cause of this 'mass discrepancy' lies primarily in the atmospheric models, which are plane parallel and hydrostatic and therefore do not account for an extended atmosphere and the velocity fields in a stellar wind. Finally, we present a new computation of the Lyman-continuum luminosity from 429 known O stars located within 2.5 kpc of the Sun. We find the total ionizing luminosity from this population ((Q(sub 0)(sup T(sub ot))) = 7.0 x 10(exp 51) photons/s) to be 47% larger than that determined using the Lyman continuum values tabulated by Panagia.

Vacca, William D.↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

State-Specific Kinetic Modeling for Predictions of Radiative Heating in H 2 /He Entry Flows

A 23-species State-to-State (StS) thermochemical model for H 2 /He mixtures is developed and used to simulate 1-D shocks at conditions relevant for ice and gas giant entry flows. To implement this StS model, a literature review of the state-specific excitation and ionization rates of atomic H is first performed. While electron impact rates from various sources are found to be in relatively good agreement, large discrepancies are found in the limited data available on heavy particle impact rates. To investigate the impact of these discrepancies on the predicted shock and radiance profiles, simulations are performed for three different versions of the kinetic model, each with a different set of heavy particle impact rates from the literature. Of these three models, two are found to over-predict and one is found to under-predict the radiance values seen in corresponding experimental data from the NASA Ames Electric Arc Shock Tube (EAST) facility. A sensitivity analysis to the electron and heavy particle impact rates is then performed, from which an improved kinetic model with modified rates is proposed. This modified kinetic model is found to reproduce the total integrated radiance seen in the EAST experiments accurately. This suggests that the associated radiative heating that would be encountered by an entry probe in these environments would be well predicted by this kinetic model. However, some discrepancies are still found i the relative contributions to the total radiance from different spectral features, suggesting that additional improvements to the kinetic model still need to be made.

Outer Planet↗
NASA NTRS1976

Pulsar average wave forms and hollow-cone beam models

Pulsar wave forms have been analyzed from observations conducted over a wide radio-frequency range to assess the wave-form morphologies and to measure wave-form widths. The results of the analysis compare favorably with the predictions of a model with a hollow-cone beam of fixed dimensions and with random orientation of both the observer and the cone axis with respect to the pulsar spin axis. A class of three-component wave forms is included in the model by adding a central pencil beam to the hollow-cone hypothesis. The consequences of a number of discrepancies between observations and quantitative predictions of the model are discussed.

Backer, D. C.↗
NASA NTRS1988

Observations and wind-forced model simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in tropical Pacific sea surface topography

This paper quantitatively evaluates simulations of the mean seasonal cycle in the tropical Pacific Ocean, using a multiple vertical-mode version of the Busalacchi and O'Brien (1980) linear model. The period studied (1979-1981) includes several coincident oceanic and surface wind data sets, as well as a fairly regular seasonal cycle leading into the 1982-1983 El Nino. Simulated mean seasonal cycles in dynamic height and sea level are compared with observed variations in expendable bathythermograph and island tide gauge data averaged over the same period. It was found that, although all simulations show characteristic features of the mean meridional ridge-trough structure in surface topography, simulated north and south equatorial ridges at 20 deg N and 20 deg S are much higher than those observed. Only weak equatorial ridges were generated near 4 N, and none of the simulations exhibited a significant equatorial trough. These discrepancies are attributed to limitations in model physics and to the wind forcing.

Mcphaden, Michael J.↗
NASA NTRS1998

An Improved Magnetic Field Model for Jupiter's Inner Magnetosphere Using a Microsignature of Amalthea

Observation of a particle absorption microsignature of the Jovian satellite Amalthea during the Pioneer II close flyby of Jupiter on December 3, 1974, has been described by McKibben et al. The microsignature was also observed by the University of Iowa/Pioneer II instrument in the distribution of protons in the kinetic energy range 0.61 less than T(sub p) less than 3.41 MeV but has not been previously reported. The finer time resolution and superior data quality of the latter observations provide a fresh basis for assessing the accuracy with which various published magnetic field models of Jupiter's magnetic field models describe Jupiter's magnetic field for radial distances of the order of or less than several planetary radii. The expected time of occurrence of the minimum of Amalthea's microsignature was calculated for each model and compared to the time of the observed minimum. The discrepancy between these two times was significant for each of the published models, but it could be reduced to zero by interpolating between two of the closely related models. The spherical harmonic coefficients of this combination model are tabulated. Also included is a novel method for calculating the intensity-time profile of the microsignature. In a later paper, the improved model is utilized to analyze the energetic particle measurements in Jupiter's innermost magnetosphere by the Galileo entry probe in December 1995.

Randall, Bruce A.↗
NASA NTRS1974

Analytical and experimental investigation of a 1/8-scale dynamic model of the shuttle orbiter. Volume 1: Summary report

A 1/8-scale structural dynamics model of the space shuttle orbiter was analyzed using the NASA Structural Analysis System (NASTRAN). Comparison of the calculated eigenvalues with preliminary test data for the unrestrained condition indicate that the analytical model was consistently stiffer, being about 20% higher in the first mode. The eigenvectors show reasonably good agreement with test data. A series of analytical and experimental investigations undertaken to resolve the discrepancy are described. Modifications in the NASTRAN model based upon these investigations resulted in close agreement for both eigenvalues and eigenvectors.

Mason, P. W.↗
NASA NTRS2004

The Magnetic Field in the Outer Heliosphere

One of the great achievements of Parker was the prediction that the solar magnetic field would be drawn into Archimedian spirals as it is carried away from the Sun by the solar wind. This prediction has been amply confirmed by many in situ measurements in the intervening four decades. But, Parker made his prediction for a solar wind that expands into infinite space while we now know that the local interstellar medium (LISM) is far from empty and, in fact, confines the solar wind to a finite volume, known as the heliosphere, that extends to approximately 100 AU in the upstream direction (the solar system is moving through the LISM). Voyagers 1/2, presently at -80 AU, are approaching the upstream boundaries of the heliosphere and returning data on the properties of the magnetic field. This is important for understanding how galactic cosmic rays (GCRs) reach the Earth. Voyagers show that the IMF at 10-80 AU behaves much as Parker predicted - with two important exceptions. This is not surprising since the field is essentially passively advected by the solar wind out to 80 AU. But, new models say that nearer the heliosphere boundaries the field plays a major role in the solar wind-LISM interaction. However, of the many physical ingredients that constitute the outer heliosphere, the magnetic field poses some of the most interesting and difficult numerical modeling problems. Presently, only a few results have been published and much remains to be done. Here I will summarize the expected and measured behavior of the magnetic field at 80 AU. Then I will describe modeling predictions beyond 80 AU: magnetic "tornadoes", polarity envelopes, the Axford-Cranfill effect, inner and outer magnetic walls and more. I will also list what I believe to be important new modeling objectives. Finally, I will speculate on what is happening with the magnetic field near the nose of the heliosphere. My conclusion is that models of GCR modulation rarely incorporate even crudely realistic magnetic fields so it is a wonder that they are as successful as they are and no surprise that there are still important discrepancies between GCR modulation observations and the models.

Suess, S. T.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Studies of the role of metastables and doubly ionized species in the chemical and thermal structure of the Venusian and Martian ionospheres

Models of the upper atmospheres of Mars and Venus were constructed using Viking and Pioneer Venus data. The neutral densities, with the exception of NO, N(4S), N(2D) and N(2P) were taken from the measured values, along with the neutral, ion, and electron temperatures. Using solar fluxes and relevant cross sections, the production rates of ions and neutral fragments by photo and electron impact processes were computed. These production rates were combined with chemical production rates and loss along with one dimensional transport eddy diffusion, molecular and ambi polar diffusion, and thermal diffusion, to determine the densities of ions and odd nitrogen species. Preliminary calculations show that the chemistry of metastables and doubly ionized species is important in the ionospheres of Mars and Venus. Production of N(+) in metastable reactions is particularly important, and it explains the discrepancy between the measurements of earlier models. Production of CO(+) is also affected. Reactions of O(++) and O(+)(2D) with N2 have important consequences for the escape rate of atomic nitrogen from the Martian atmosphere.

Fox, J. L.↗
NASA NTRS1995

Heliomagnetic latitude dependence of the heliospheric magnetic field

Previous studies have revealed systematic variations of the interplanetary magnetic field with heliographic latitude. Luhmann et al. (1987) modeled Pioneer Venus (PVO) and ISEE-3 observations by assuming an asymmetric dependence on heliolatitude with stronger fields in the northern hemisphere. In a subsequent study, using data from ISEE-3/ICE and IMP-8, Burton et al. (1990) found evidence for a similar asymmetry. However, neither model has been completely successful. The model derived from PVO/ICE observations agrees quite well near solar maximum but shows significant discrepancies during the descending phase of the solar cycle. The model derived from the ICE/IMP-8 comparison suffers from significant phase delays between the difference in field magnitude at the two spacecraft and their latitude difference. In an attempt to account for these phase shifts, the IMP-8 and ICE data have been reexamined in heliomagnetic coordinates which are defined by the orientation of the solar magnetic dipole. The latitude and longitude of the dipole inferred from the data have then been compared with those implicit in source surface calculations. The IMP/ICE correlations have been extended into the recent solar maximum and descending phase. Comparisons have also been carried out between IMP-8 and Ulysses as it traveled to -30 deg south heliographic latitude.

Burton, M. E.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Cloud Modeling Using Field Project Data for the Study of Precipitation Processes

The use of cloud-resolving models (CRMs) in the study of precipitation process and their relation to the large-scale environment can be generally categorized into two approaches. The first approach is so called "cloud ensemble modeling". In this approach, many clouds of different size in various stages of their lifecycles can be present at any model simulation time. Large-scale effects are derived from observations and imposed into the model as the main forcing. The advantage of this approach is that the modeled convection will be forced to have the same intensity, thermodynamic budget and organization as the obserations.This approach will also allow CRMs to perform multi-day or multi-week time integrations. The second approach usually requires initial temperature and water vapor profiles that have a medium to large CAPE, and open lateral boundary conditions are used. The modeled clouds could be termed "self-forced convection". Model improvements, such as in the microphysics, are achieved using the second approach. In cloud ensemble modeling, accurate large-scale advective tendencies for temperature and water vapor are the main forcing for the CRMs. We found that the large-scale advective terms for temperature and water vapor are not always consistent, For example, large-scale forcing could indicate strong drying which would produce cooling in the model through evaporation but not contain large-scale advective heating to compensate. This discrepancy in forcing would cause differences between the observed and modeled latent heating profiles. Good measurements of other quantities (i.e., surface fluxes and radiation) are also required to perform variational objective analysis that computes and minimizes a "cost function" that constrains the difference between the large-scale advective forcing in temperature and water vapor. With self-forced convection, accurate vertical distributions of temperature, moisture (water vapor), and horizontal winds are required. The timing of the measurements relative to cloud development is crucial (i.e., prior to cloud triggering). Microphysical measurements (i.e., the cloud number concentration and size distribution) can also be used in this second approach but are of secondary importance with cloud ensemble modeling. In this paper, data collected during TRMM field campaigns (FCs; i.e., SCSMEX, LBA and KWAJEX) which were aimed at validating TRMM products (i.e., rainfall and the vertical distribution of latent heating) will be used to examine the impact of errors in the initial conditions (e.g.., soundings an large-scale forcing) on simulated rainfall distributions and brightness. Rainfall and precipitations simulated from a CRM will also be compared with those estimated by a schocastic model.

Tao, W.-K.↗
NASA NTRS2016

Regime-Based Evaluation of Cloudiness in CMIP5 Models

The concept of Cloud Regimes (CRs) is used to develop a framework for evaluating the cloudiness of 12 fifth Coupled Model Intercomparison Project (CMIP5) models. Reference CRs come from existing global International Satellite Cloud Climatology Project (ISCCP) weather states. The evaluation is made possible by the implementation in several CMIP5 models of the ISCCP simulator generating for each gridcell daily joint histograms of cloud optical thickness and cloud top pressure. Model performance is assessed with several metrics such as CR global cloud fraction (CF), CR relative frequency of occurrence (RFO), their product (long-term average total cloud amount [TCA]), cross-correlations of CR RFO maps, and a metric of resemblance between model and ISCCP CRs. In terms of CR global RFO, arguably the most fundamental metric, the models perform unsatisfactorily overall, except for CRs representing thick storm clouds. Because model CR CF is internally constrained by our method, RFO discrepancies yield also substantial TCA errors. Our findings support previous studies showing that CMIP5 models underestimate cloudiness. The multi-model mean performs well in matching observed RFO maps for many CRs, but is not the best for this or other metrics. When overall performance across all CRs is assessed, some models, despite their shortcomings, apparently outperform Moderate Resolution Imaging Spectroradiometer (MODIS) cloud observations evaluated against ISCCP as if they were another model output. Lastly, cloud simulation performance is contrasted with each model's equilibrium climate sensitivity (ECS) in order to gain insight on whether good cloud simulation pairs with particular values of this parameter.

cloud climatology↗
NASA NTRS2003

On the Computation of Space-Time Correlations by Large-Eddy Simulation

Numerical comparisons in decaying isotropic turbulence suggest that there exist discrepancies in time correlations evaluated by DNS and LES using eddy-viscosity-type SGS models. This is consistent with the previous observations in forced isotropic turbulence. Therefore, forcing is not the main cause of the discrepancies. Comparisons among different SGS models in the LES also indicate that the model choice affects the time correlations in the LES. The multi-scale LES method using the dynamic Smagorinsky model on the small scale equation is the most accurate of the all models, the classic Smagorinsky model is the least accurate and the dynamic Smagorinsky model and spectral eddy viscosity model give intermediate results with small differences. The generalized sweeping hypothesis implies that time correlations in decaying isotropic turbulence are mainly determined by the instantaneous energy spectra and sweeping velocities. The analysis based on the sweeping hypothesis explains the discrepancies in our numerical simulations: the LES overpredicts the decorrelation time scales because the sweeping velocities are smaller than the DNS values, and underpredicts the magnitudes of time correlations because the energy spectrum levels are lower than the DNS ones. Since the sweeping velocity is determined by the energy spectra, one concludes that an accurate prediction of the instantaneous energy spectra guarantees the accuracy of time correlations. An analytical expression of sound power spectra based on Lighthill's theory and the quasi-normal closure assumption suggests that the sound power spectra are sensitive to errors in time correlations. Small errors in time correlations can cause significant errors in the sound power spectra, which exhibit a sizable drop at moderate to high frequencies accompanied by a shift of the peaks to lower frequencies. Based on the above analysis, two possible ways to improve the acoustic power spectrum predictions can be considered. The first is to construct better SGS models to improve the LES accuracy for time correlations. The second is to remedy the temporal statistics of the Lighthill stress tensor in order to "recover" the contribution from the unresolved scales in LES to time correlations.

He, Guo-Wei↗
NASA NTRS1998

Influence of Subpixel Scale Cloud Top Structure on Reflectances from Overcast Stratiform Cloud Layers

Recent observational studies have shown that satellite retrievals of cloud optical depth based on plane-parallel model theory suffer from systematic biases that depend on viewing geometry, even when observations are restricted to overcast marine stratus layers, arguably the closest to plane parallel in nature. At moderate to low sun elevations, the plane-parallel model significantly overestimates the reflectance dependence on view angle in the forward-scattering direction but shows a similar dependence in the backscattering direction. Theoretical simulations are performed that show that the likely cause for this discrepancy is because the plane-parallel model assumption does not account for subpixel, scale variations in cloud-top height (i.e., "cloud bumps"). Monte Carlo simulation, comparing ID model radiances to radiances from overcast cloud field with 1) cloud-top height variation, but constant cloud volume extinction; 2) flat tops but horizontal variations in cloud volume extinction; and 3) variations in both cloud top height and cloud extinction are performed over a approximately equal to 4 km x 4 km domain (roughly the size of an individual GAC AVHRR pixel). The comparisons show that when cloud-top height variations are included, departures from 1D theory are remarkably similar (qualitatively) to those obtained observationally. In contrast, when clouds are assumed flat and only cloud extinction is variable, reflectance differences are much smaller and do not show any view-angle dependence. When both cloud-top height and cloud extinction variations are included, however, large increases in cloud extinction variability can enhance reflectance difference. The reason 3D-1D reflectance differences are more sensitive to cloud-top height variations in the forward-scattering direction (at moderate to low, sun elevations) is because photons leaving the cloud field in that direction experience fewer scattering events (low-order scattering) and are restricted to the topmost portions of the cloud. While reflectance deviations from 1D theory are much larger for bumpy clouds than for flat clouds with variable cloud extinction, differences in cloud albedo are comparable for these two cases.

Loeb, N. G.↗
NASA NTRS1989

A simple model for DSS-14 outage times

A model is proposed to describe DSS-14 outage times. Discrepancy Reporting System outage data for the period from January 1986 through September 1988 are used to estimate the parameters of the model. The model provides a probability distribution for the duration of outages, which agrees well with observed data. The model depends only on a small number of parameters, and has some heuristic justification. This shows that the Discrepancy Reporting System in the Deep Space Network (DSN) can be used to estimate the probability of extended outages in spite of the discrepancy reports ending when the pass ends. The probability of an outage extending beyond the end of a pass is estimated as around 5 percent.

Rumsey, H. C.↗
NASA NTRS1987

Optical and X-ray radiation from fast pulsars - Effects of duty cycle and spectral shape

The optical luminosity of PSR 0540 is considerably stronger than what one would have predicted in a simple model developed earlier where the pulses are synchrotron radiation by secondary electrons near the light cylinder. This discrepancy can be eliminated if one incorporates into the model the effects of the large duty cycle and the spectral properties of PSR 0540. It is also shown that the same model can provide a reasonable fit to the observed X-ray fluxes from fast pulsars.

Pacini, F.↗
NASA NTRS1991

Experiments and modeling

The usual approach in establishing the correctness and accuracy of turbulence models is to numerically solve the modeled differential equations and then compare the results with the experiment. However, in the case of a discrepancy, this procedure does not pinpoint where in the model the drawback lies. It is also possible that the model overcompensates one physical phenomenon and undercompensates the other so that the net result is a good agreement between the two. Therefore, a more desirable approach is to directly compare the individual terms in the equations with their models. To achieve this objective, primary physical experiments were used to carry out the second moment budgets. These can then be used to analyze and assess various models and closure assumptions and seek improvements/modifications where models prove deficient.

Shabbir, Aamir↗