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DOE OSTI2024

Estimation of General Area Dose Rates During Closure Weld Operations on the DOE Standard Canister Pacific Basin Nuclear Conference 2024

The Department of Energy (DOE) Spent Nuclear Fuel (SNF) Road Ready Demonstration Project is an effort to package DOE-managed SNF for road-ready dry storage. A key operation in this demonstration is performing the closure weld on the DOE Standard Canister after it has been loaded with the SNF. Planning the closure weld operations is ongoing and must consider what parts of the operations (if any) can be done manually and what parts must be done remotely. A key parameter to inform the evolving planning of these operations is the dose rate in the vicinity of the canister and the dose hazard posed to the closure weld operators and collocated workers. This study developed a Monte Carlo N-Particle (MCNP) model of the closure weld operation, which was used to estimate general area dose rates as well as dose rates to the welding location, weld operators, and collocated workers. These estimates provide some insight into the potential radiation exposure hazard for workers during the operations and are a factor to be considered in the ongoing development of designs, technology, processes, and administrative controls for packaging DOE-managed SNF for road-ready dry storage.

11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2025

Metastable‐State Photoacids with Fast Reverse Reactions

Metastable-state photoacid (mPAH) has become a common tool for controlling and driving chemical processes with light. mPAHs with fast reverse reactions are desirable for precise temporal control or generating quick pulses of proton concentration. Here, in this work, different approaches towards fast reversing mPAHs are studied. Experimental and computational results showed that stabilizing the charge–transfer intermediate is an effective way to increase the rate. A novel mPAH with a reverse reaction ≈500 times faster than the most used mPAH in methanol is developed. Another water-soluble mPAH showed a reverse reaction with a rate constant of 7.8 s −1 , which is the fastest ever reported. The half-life of the acidic state is calculated to be 89 ms, which allowed to demonstrate sub-second switching using this mPAH.

Abbood, Rana [Florida Institute of Technology, Mel↗

DOE OSTI2026

Paradigm for universal quantum information processing with integrated acousto-optic frequency beamsplitters

Frequency-bin encoding offers tremendous potential in quantum photonic information processing, in which a single waveguide can support hundreds of lightpaths in a naturally phase-stable fashion. This stability, however, comes at a cost: arbitrary unitary operations can be realized by cascaded electro-optic phase modulators and pulse shapers, but require nontrivial numerical optimization for design and have thus far been limited to discrete tabletop components. In this article, we propose, formalize, and computationally evaluate a new paradigm for universal frequency-bin quantum information processing using acousto-optic scattering processes between distinct transverse modes. We show that controllable phase matching in intermodal processes enables 2 × 2 frequency beamsplitters and transverse-mode-dependent phase shifters, which together comprise cascadable FRequency-transverse-mODe Operations (FRODOs) that can synthesize any unitary via analytical decomposition procedures. Modeling the performance of both random gates and discrete Fourier transforms, we demonstrate the feasibility of high-fidelity quantum operations with existing integrated photonics technology, highlighting prospects of parallelizable operations achieving 100% bandwidth utilization. Our approach is realizable with CMOS technology, opening the door to scalable on-chip quantum information processing in the frequency domain.

Lukens, Joseph M. [Purdue Univ., West Lafayette, I↗

DOE OSTI2024

TEAMER Technical Support for Aquantis (Modeling): Cooperative Research and Development Final Report, CRADA Number CRD-21-17763

NREL will provide numerical modelling support to Requestor by completing four successive stages of numerical modeling effort which are capable of accurate predicting the performance of the Aquantis turbine. NREL will develop a baseline OpenFAST model (a couple model of AeroDyn and ElastoDyn solver) of the Aquantis turbine, subsequently couples this model to OrcaFlex or within OpenFAST framework to preliminarily design and explore a full floating tidal turbine system in a control co-design process.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

DOE OSTI2025

Processing-dependent chemical ordering in Cu 3 Au characterized via non-destructive Bragg coherent diffraction imaging

Of current importance for alloy design is controlling chemical ordering through processing routes to optimize an alloy's mechanical properties for a desired application. However, characterization of chemical ordering remains an ongoing challenge, particularly when nondestructive characterization is needed. Here, in this study, Bragg coherent diffraction imaging is used to reconstruct morphology and lattice displacement in model Cu 3 Au nanocrystals that have undergone different heat treatments to produce variation in chemical ordering. The magnitudes and distributions of the scattering amplitudes (proportional to electron density) and lattice strains within these crystals are then analyzed to correlate them to the expected amount of chemical ordering present. Nanocrystals with increased amounts of ordering are found to generally have less extreme strains present and reduced strain distribution widths. In addition, statistical correlations are found between the spatial arrangement of scattering amplitude and lattice strains.

Warren, Nathaniel [Pennsylvania State Univ., Unive↗

DOE OSTI2026

Automation of Nanoparticle Synthesis Processes in a Plasma Environment Using LabVIEW

This work presents an automated control system for the synthesis of nanomaterials by plasma-enhanced chemical vapor deposition (PECVD), implemented using the LabVIEW software environment. The main objective of the study is to develop an integrated hardware-software platform that enables sequential control of the key stages of the PECVD process, including vacuum chamber preparation, pressure monitoring, working gas supply, plasma ignition, power matching, cyclic nanomaterial growth, and optical monitoring of nanoparticles in the plasma environment. The use of LabVIEW made it possible to integrate actuator control, experimental parameter acquisition, and realtime process visualization within a single automated system. The automated cycle begins with evacuation of the reaction chamber to a predefined base pressure. Transition to the next stage is permitted only after the specified pressure threshold has been reached, ensuring reproducible initial conditions for each experiment. The program then controls the supply of the working gas through mass flow controllers (MFCs). In this work, two gas-flow control modes were considered: analog control using a 0-5 V voltage signal and digital communication via RS-232 interface. It was shown that the analog approach requires accurate scaling of the control voltage, since applying 5 V corresponds to full-scale opening of the controller and results in the maximum gas flow. In contrast, the RS232 interface enables the gas flow rate to be specified directly in sccm, improving the accuracy, flexibility, and convenience of gas-environment control. After pressure stabilization, LabVIEW initiates RF plasma ignition and executes the RF matching algorithm aimed at minimizing reflected power and improving the stability of the plasma process. A separate software module implements the cyclic nanomaterial growth mode, in which the plasma-on time, plasma duration, and total number of synthesis cycles are predefined. This approach makes it possible to control material accumulation on the substrate and to correlate the process parameters with the morphological characteristics of the resulting nanostructures. The final module of the system is designed for optical monitoring of the nanoparticle cloud density in dusty plasma. For this purpose, the change in the intensity of laser radiation passing through the plasma region is recorded using a photodetector and a Keithley 2401 measuring unit connected to LabVIEW via RS-232 interface. The difference between the initial and modified optical signal intensity is used as a diagnostic parameter characterizing the formation and temporal evolution of nanoparticles. The developed system demonstrates that LabVIEW can be effectively applied not only for the automation of individual instruments, but also for the implementation of a complete digital control cycle for PECVD-based nanomaterial synthesis.

PECVD↗

DOE OSTI2024

Mechanical Performance of Additively Manufactured ODS 316L and 316H Stainless Steels

This work package within the Advanced Materials and Manufacturing Technologies (AMMT) program focused on the mechanical and microstructural characterization of oxide dispersion strengthened (ODS) stainless steels produced using advanced manufacturing techniques. The research aimed to identify an accelerated development path for ODS alloys by integrating additive manufacturing (AM) technologies with recent advancements in ODS materials and traditional manufacturing methods. For FY 24, the research specifically targeted exploring an accelerated development path for ODS alloys by combining AM technologies with these advancements. Novel AM and post-build processing routes were developed for ODS austenitic alloys, including Fe-Cr-Ni alloys such as 316L and 316H. Electron microscopy and mechanical characterizations were conducted to evaluate the impact of process variables on microstructure and properties, with the goal of optimizing these properties economically. Traditionally, producing ODS alloys involves multi-day, high-energy mechanical milling of alloy powder with yttria powder, followed by milled-powder consolidation through extrusion or other methods, and additional thermomechanical processing (TMP) for property control. To overcome the challenges associated with this complex and costly approach, we propose exploring alternative, cost-effective processing routes that emphasize AM and traditional TMP methods. The new processing routes for ODS alloys have achieved significantly higher strengths—several times greater than those of wrought stainless steels—while maintaining substantial ductility and fracture toughness. This report outlines the novel and economical AM-based processing routes for ODS austenitic alloys, combined with post-build TMPs, and discusses the mechanical and microstructural characteristics of the developed materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Model-based, in-situ, non-destructive qualification and certification of parts made by autonomous additive manufacturing

To address the significant productivity challenges associated with the qualification and certification (Q&C) tasks of additively manufactured (AM) parts, which have traditionally relied on rigorous post‐build inspection and testing, we propose an integrated framework that combines model‐based qualification and certification (MBQ&C) with autonomous additive manufacturing (AAM). MBQ&C employs high‐fidelity predictive models, developed within the Integrated Computational Materials Engineering (ICME) paradigm, to simulate process–structure–property–performance relationships for assessing a part’s fitness for use. Since predictive models are commonly machine learning (ML)-based or reduced-order surrogates of validated physics models, they run efficiently, enabling timely inference. In parallel, the self-driving AAM utilises ML-based adaptive, closed‐loop control strategies to avoid, mitigate, or repair defects and anomalies during fabrication, thereby increasing the likelihood of producing acceptable parts. A key feature of the combined AAM-MBQ&C framework is that predictive models explicitly incorporate defects or anomalies that persist after the build, using instance-specific data captured via in-situ sensing. This customisation enables a build‐specific assessment of fitness for use, rather than relying on nominal or generic parameters. Such individualised evaluation provides a robust basis for Q&C-related acceptance decisions relating to each build. Additionally, the rapid solution capabilities of ML or reduced-order models enable the determination of a part’s suitability for service shortly after build completion. As the framework matures, it has the potential to substantially reduce reliance on conventional point‐design approaches—such as time‐consuming post‐build computed tomography scanning and costly destructive testing. Thus, the AAM-MBQ&C framework represents a transformative, scalable strategy for quality assurance of AM components, as parts produced within a stable, validated, and certified envelope can be certified with reduced testing. Key benefits include: (1) significant gains in Q&C productivity through efficient, model-centric assessment; (2) performance-based classification of defects into critical and non-critical categories; (3) the ability to predict potential deviations in the performance of parts affected by real-time, adaptive process control interventions relative to those produced under a certified process, and (4) the enabling of virtual Q&C for service environments that are difficult, hazardous, or impractical to access or reproduce experimentally. Collectively, these capabilities strengthen the business case for AM, particularly for high‐consequence and mission‐critical applications. Finally, although this work focuses on powder-based AM, the proposed techniques could be extended to AM processes employing alternative feedstock forms.

Gunasegaram, Dayalan↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mesoporous Thin Film Architectures: Addressing Material Demands through Molecular Self-Assembly

Mesoporous thin films spark interest across a wide range of disciplines due to their tunable nanostructures, large internal surface areas, and strong compatibility with planar optical, electronic, and microfluidic devices. While attention in the porous materials community has shifted toward macroporous or disordered nanoporous systems, a resurgence in mesoporous thin film research is underway, driven by new molecular self-assembly methods, advanced materials chemistry, and improved characterization techniques. The integration of high-χN block copolymer design, kinetically persistent micelle templating, and postdeposition processing protocols now allows control over structural parameters such as pore size, wall thickness, porosity, and connectivity. These advances have overcome many of the thermodynamic and processing constraints that previously limited widespread adoption. Rather than serving only as high-surface-area supports, mesoporous thin films are engineered as active interfaces where responsive chemistries and nanoscale confinement act in tandem. Embedding switchable ligands, thermoresponsive polymers, redox mediators, or ion-selective groups directly within the pore walls enables real-time control over transport, optical, and electrochemical properties. These capabilities open up new directions in adaptive coatings, gated membranes, and fast-response biosensors. To further expand their functional scope, mesoporous films are integrated into hierarchical and multicomponent architectures. Techniques such as triblock terpolymer templating, crack-directed assembly, and nanoimprint lithography allow for control over spatial organization on the micron and submicron scale and pore system orientation. This enables programmable anisotropy, enhanced molecular diffusion, and wavelength-selective photonic behavior, essential for next-generation sensing, catalysis, and energy applications. Such structural and functional complexity requires equally sophisticated characterization. Multimodal and in situ techniques can track material dynamics under operational conditions. Recent progress includes extended-range ellipsometric porosimetry (EP) for hierarchical architectures, vacuum EP for interface energetics, time-resolved EP for diffusion kinetics, and correlative AFM-SAXS mapping. The introduction of advanced neutron-based spectroscopies, particularly quasielastic neutron scattering (QENS), promises to provide real-time access to ion transport dynamics and segmental motion under nanoscale confinement, offering a path toward deeper mechanistic understanding of structure-performance correlations in mesoporous systems. This Account reflects the technical advances made and the interdisciplinary collaborations that have shaped our collective vision. The particular dimensions of mesopores enable us to subtly tune interactions at the molecular, interfacial, and mesoscopic levels that permit us to harness nanoconfinement. What emerges is a versatile, modular platform capable of chemical gating, energy transduction, and sensing with a level of tunability unmatched by other porous materials. We highlight critical challenges including the need for more robust large-area processing, a deeper understanding of dynamic behavior under cycling, and better integration with device-level architectures. Our strategies support the transition of mesoporous thin films into active high-performance components in next-generation energy, environmental, and biomedical systems.

oxides↗

DOE OSTI2025

Mechanical Characteristics of Additively Manufactured ODS 316L and 316H Alloys with and Without Post-build Processing

This research aims to explore an accelerated development path for oxide dispersion-strengthened (ODS) alloys by integrating additive manufacturing (AM) technologies with recent advances in ODS materials and traditional manufacturing methods. Novel AM and post-build processing routes have been developed for ODS austenitic alloys, specifically Fe-Cr-Ni alloys like 316L and 316H. Electron microscopy and mechanical characterizations were conducted to evaluate the effects of process variables on microstructure and properties, aiming for an economically feasible route property optimization. Traditionally, ODS alloy production involves multi-day high-energy mechanical milling of alloy powder with yttria (Y 2 O 3 ) followed by powder consolidation via extrusion or other methods and additional thermomechanical processing (TMP) for property control. Here, to address these challenges associated with this complex and costly approach, we propose exploring alternative, cost-effective processing routes focusing on AM and traditional TMP methods. The new ODS alloy processing routes have achieved up to a 400% increase in yield strength and a 60% increase in ultimate tensile strength compared to wrought stainless steels while still maintaining significant ductility and fracture toughness. This paper details the novel and economical AM-based processing routes for ODS austenitic alloys, combined with post-build TMPs, and discusses the mechanical and microstructural characteristics of the developed materials.

Byun, Thak Sang [Oak Ridge National Laboratory (OR↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluating User Errors and Temporal Trends in Marine Fish Communities Using 360-Degree Underwater Photography

The use of environmental DNA (eDNA) sampling has been proposed as a complementary method to monitor fish species in marine environments, offering a non-invasive and potentially more efficient approach to marine species observations. eDNA monitoring could be especially useful in and around sites targeted for marine energy generation as these regions need regular monitoring that would be impractical with traditional techniques. Before we can fully rely upon eDNA, we must first verify its accuracy against other proven methods, such as the use of underwater photography. In this study, I deployed a 360-degree camera in the tidal channel of Sequim Bay once a month during several hours overlapping slack tide. I investigated how having multiple people identify and count fish on underwater images could affect the overall results. Using chi square tests in R, I compared my fish identifications and counts to those made by another intern on the same images recorded in August. I found significant differences in the number of species identified and the total individual counts between the two different datasets. I also tested the statistical differences in both Shannon diversity and Pielou evenness indices between the August, September, and November camera deployments using a Hutcheson t-test. Only one significant difference was found in the Shannon index comparisons, and none were found between the Pielou evenness comparisons. These findings show that if multiple identifiers are used to process underwater images, quality control checks must be made to reduce the potential for error. This also points toward the possibility to leverage more advanced image analysis processes, such as automated image analysis software. The findings from this study also show that the dynamics of marine fish communities can vary over a few months; however, further analysis is needed to determine the extent of the seasonal changes in Sequim Bay.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Control of machining-induced residual stress via tool geometry and process parameter modification

Distortion generated in machined, monolithic, thin-walled aerospace components due to residual stresses leads to significant material and economic waste in the manufacturing industry. Inherent residual stress (IRS) present in stock materials combines with machining-induced residual stress (MIRS) to influence the final machined part distortion. It is hypothesized that MIRS can be controlled, based on the part geometry, through deliberate cutting tool geometry and process parameter modifications to negate the effect of IRS on distortion, consequently resulting in distortion-free parts. A finite element (FE) orthogonal cutting model is developed to study how tool geometry and process parameters influence machining-induced residual stress (MIRS). Orthogonal cutting experiments are performed on Al 7075-T651 samples to measure cutting forces and MIRS. A cutting force dynamometer is used to measure forces during cutting and a novel digital image correlation (DIC) based hole drilling technique is employed to measure the near-surface residual stress (RS) in the cut samples. These data are subsequently utilized to validate the FE prediction model. Various cases of cutting simulations involving different depths of cut, tool tip radii, and rake angles are performed to study their effects on RS. Similar to prior literature, increasing the depth of cut, tool tip radius, or rake angle is found to promote the formation of near-surface tensile stresses. The competing effects of material plowing and temperature are shown to determine the type of RS at the end of the cut. Moreover, a window of variation of RS (up to ± 400 MPa) is estimated within the given range of conditions, allowing for the control of MIRS through tool and process modification.

Mathews, Ritin [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000301440828)↗

DOE OSTI2026

On Road Testing Data

This dataset provides the following on road testing data: - Videos - In-vehicle dash camera videos during different testing scenarios. - Signal controller data - NTCIP log data and processed signal timing data from the corresponding signal controllers - Vehicle data - Vehicle data recorded during the testing, including GNSS, communication, CAN signals.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2024

Development of Property Composition Models For RPP-WTP LAW Glasses (Final Report)

This report describes the development of property-composition models for low-activity waste (LAW) glasses for the River Protection Project Waste Treatment Plant (RPP-WTP) at the Hanford site. The RPP-WTP will separate Hanford tank wastes into LAW and high-level waste (HLW) streams and each stream will be vitrified separately. The development of LAW and HLW glass formulations for the RPP-WTP has been reported previously and is an ongoing activity. Acceptable formulations must meet a variety of processability, product quality, and waste loading requirements that are dictated either by the RPP-WTP contract or by the characteristics of the particular treatment processes that have been selected. These requirements amount to constraints on the acceptable ranges of certain glass properties. These properties are determined first and foremost by the composition of the glass or glass melt. Thus, while there is no direct way of controlling the glass properties of interest during production, there are simple and extremely effective methods of achieving the same result by instead controlling the glass composition. This basic principle is no different from that used to produce enormous volumes of commercial glass to meet exacting product specifications. An essential difference in waste vitrification, however, is that one of the raw materials (the waste itself) can be subject to considerable compositional uncertainty and variability. Thus, waste vitrification facilities and associated process control systems (of which, the operating envelope in glass formulation space is a key part) must, of course, be designed to be robust with respect to such variations. The determination of quantitative relationships between the glass properties that must be controlled and the glass composition can play an important role in the development of such facilities.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2025

Correlating Nb-SRF Surface Processing with Evolution of Surface Electronic States

The few nanometers of the surface exposed to RF field plays a major role in defining the RF performance of superconducting cavities. Over the past two decades, several pioneering surface treatment and processing methods have emerged, enabling remarkable improvements in cavity performance by simultaneously achieving high Q with increasing Eacc. These processing methods include: thermal treatment under ultra-high vacuum (UHV) conditions across lo¬¬¬¬¬¬¬w-, mid-, and high-temperature ranges and high temperature treatments under controlled N2 atmosphere. These processes also produce distinct surface oxide configurations with different valence states, thicknesses, and uniformity, as well as different oxygen concentration profiles in bulk Nb. In this work, we are trying to understand how do surface-processing methods and the resulting oxide/oxygen profiles affect the electronic structure of surface and the mechanism of superconductivity? With the help of Fermilab’s in-house X-ray photoemission facility and, in collaboration with the synchrotron-based angle-resolved photoemission (ARPES) facility at Argonne National Laboratory, we are investigating how the valence band structure and density of states (DoS) near the Fermi level modify with different surface treatments. Our observations show that different surface-processing methods lead to distinct evolutions of the valence-band states near the Fermi level during the superconducting transition. This behavior suggests variations in Nb-O orbital hybridizations and points towards the possibility of different underlying mechanisms of superconductivity governed by the surface chemistry and oxide configuration. We also correlate these distinct superconducting mechanisms with RF cavity performance, specifically focusing on measured surface resistance, the nature of the Q-slope, and quench fields observed in SRF measurements. These results will enable us to identify the potential limiting factors and relevant controllable parameters that can be further optimized to improve the performance of SRF cavities.

Tripathi, Malvika [Fermilab]↗

DOE OSTI2026

Production of Renewable Natural Gas from Waste Carbon Dioxide Sources (CRADA Final Report)

This CRADA provides new funding from SoCalGas and DOE's BETO and FCTO Offices focused hydrogen mass transfer limitations in H2@Scale processes. The project leverages the existing hydrogen production capabilities at the Energy Systems Integration Facility (ESIF) and SoCalGas' 700 L bioreactor system designed, built, and delivered to NLR under the first phase of this CRADA. This Joint Work Statement will cover new hardware modifications between NLR's electorlyzer stack and the SoCalGas bioreactor located outdoors. The new hardware and controls will provide researchers with the tools needed to obtain preliminary experimental data for a non-provisional application due in July 2019. The IP being developed is expected to improve the productivity of the bioreactor and would have wider impacts on other end-use processes using pressurized hydrogen (H2). In addition, this new funding enhances an existing BETO Biopower award by developing a 10-15 kW electrolyzer that is scalable to the MW-class with reduced capital cost and higher efficiency aimed at improving H2 mass transfer to downstream processes, like biomethanation. Finally due to the close-coupling between the electrolyzer stack and bioreactor, R&D will focus on cell retention, nutrient maintenance, optimal water management and process controls.

08 HYDROGEN↗

DOE OSTI2024

Baselining the Indirect Effect by Improving Quantification of Sea Spray and Marine Sources at Ascension Island (Final Report)

Oceans cover two-thirds of the Earth and understanding the interactions of aerosols with clouds in these large marine regions requires quantifying the man-made contributions to the budget of cloud-drop forming particles (known as cloud condensation nuclei, or CCN) relative to the non-manmade “baseline” conditions and understanding the meteorology of boundary layer clouds. Modeling studies have shown substantial uncertainties and sensitivities to natural marine CCN sources, meaning that to reduce uncertainties in indirect effects we must be able to better quantify the CCN budget in ocean regions. While models provide important constraints on these uncertainties, actually reducing uncertainties requires substantial observations in open-ocean and coastal regions in order to establish the baseline on which manmade emissions are added. The tropical South Atlantic Ocean is one of the least-sampled regions of the planet, making the comprehensive measurements of the Department of Energy Atmospheric Radiation Measurement Layered Atlantic Smoke Interactions with Clouds (LASIC) campaign provides the longest record of aerosol size distribution measurements from a differential mobility analyzer in a cloud-influenced marine location in the ARM database, with 17 months of ground-based aerosol size distribution measurements. This project addressed the research topic of Aerosol-Cloud Interactions (ACI) by supporting three publications from the LASIC measurements: 1. The ARM measurements were combined with a new value-added technique that was pioneered by the Russell group for quantifying sea salt. This quantification of sea salt uses supermicron scattering measurements for retrieving reasonable sea spray mass concentrations, providing the best-available, observationally-constrained estimate of the sea spray mode properties when supermicron size distribution measurements are not available. 2. The fitted modes of the distribution were used to investigate the signatures of cloud processing for very clean to very smoky aerosol conditions, revealing not only differences in the particles that activate in clouds but also in the mechanisms that control that droplet formation process. In clean air, the size required to form a cloud droplet is influenced by the number of particles, as well as how quickly particles take up water during growth in cloud. 3. Building on this aerosol characterization, cloud and meteorological conditions were used to evaluate aerosol-related changes in cloud albedo and optical depth. We introduced a new method of decomposing the impact of aerosols on clouds known as the Twomey effect by incorporating retrieved supersaturation from two independent sets of observations to constrain the feedback of aerosol particles on cloud properties. The method quantifies the reduction of the Twomey effect at high aerosol concentrations, which has never been explained quantitatively by observations. In addition, the results provide the first direct validation for the conditions observed in the tropical South Atlantic of a parcel-based approach that is embedded in many climate models. Together these findings illustrate how ARM extended field campaigns in stratocumulus-covered regions can be used to constrain ACI processes with direct observations, providing specific radiative effects without models. By making such process-specific constraints available to improve ACI in global climate models, ARM observations play a key role in supporting model development.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

On the predictability of turbulent fluxes from land: PLUMBER2 MIP experimental description and preliminary results

Accurate representation of the turbulent exchange of carbon, water, and heat between the land surface and the atmosphere is critical for modelling global energy, water, and carbon cycles in both future climate projections and weather forecasts. Evaluation of models' ability to do this is performed in a wide range of simulation environments, often without explicit consideration of the degree of observational constraint or uncertainty and typically without quantification of benchmark performance expectations. We describe a Model Intercomparison Project (MIP) that attempts to resolve these shortcomings, comparing the surface turbulent heat flux predictions of around 20 different land models provided with in situ meteorological forcing evaluated with measured surface fluxes using quality-controlled data from 170 eddy-covariance-based flux tower sites. Predictions from seven out-of-sample empirical models are used to quantify the information available to land models in their forcing data and so the potential for land model performance improvement. Sites with unusual behaviour, complicated processes, poor data quality, or uncommon flux magnitude are more difficult to predict for both mechanistic and empirical models, providing a means of fairer assessment of land model performance. When examining observational uncertainty, model performance does not appear to improve in low-turbulence periods or with energy-balance-corrected flux tower data, and indeed some results raise questions about whether the energy balance correction process itself is appropriate. In all cases the results are broadly consistent, with simple out-of-sample empirical models, including linear regression, comfortably outperforming mechanistic land models. In all but two cases, latent heat flux and net ecosystem exchange of CO 2 are better predicted by land models than sensible heat flux, despite it seeming to have fewer physical controlling processes. Land models that are implemented in Earth system models also appear to perform notably better than stand-alone ecosystem (including demographic) models, at least in terms of the fluxes examined here. The approach we outline enables isolation of the locations and conditions under which model developers can know that a land model can improve, allowing information pathways and discrete parameterisations in models to be identified and targeted for future model development.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗