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At least 307 records · Page 17

Discovering the Multisectoral Impacts of Global Energy Sector Outcomes Through Multiple Ensemble Aggregation Measures

Understanding complex human-Earth system interactions often involves analyzing large scenario ensembles that encompass a wide range of plausible futures. These ensembles often require aggregation to summarize information based on specific criteria or conditions. However, previous research using global change scenario ensembles has largely overlooked how the choice of aggregation method influences the interpretation of results. To address this gap, we leverage a large ensemble data set designed to capture broad energy system dynamics generated using the Global Change Analysis Model. We first explore how energy-related uncertainties are propagated to both global and regional water-energy-food sectors. We then conduct a rank correlation analysis across seven ensemble aggregation measures and demonstrate the need to consider multiple measures in global change scenarios. Our results suggest that global water and food sector outcomes in the 21st century vary widely depending on different scenario assumptions. The global energy productivity is projected to improve by the end of the century across all scenarios. Moreover, regions facing water scarcity challenges in 2100 do not always overlap with those facing extreme energy and food sector outcomes. Although rank correlations across seven aggregation measures are relatively stable across sectors, we identify cases where relying on a single measure leads to losing critical information in the full ensemble. Reliance on a single aggregation measure can distort the interpretation of global change scenario outcomes. Instead, adopting multiple ensemble aggregation measures provides a more holistic understanding of global change scenario ensembles.

Kim, Gijoo↗

Candidate ferroelectrics via ab initio high-throughput screening of polar materials

Ferroelectrics are a class of polar and switchable functional materials with diverse applications, from microelectronics to energy conversion. Computational searches for new ferroelectric materials have been constrained by accurate prediction of the polarization and switchability with electric field, properties that, in principle, require a comparison with a nonpolar phase whose atomic-scale unit cell is continuously deformable from the polar ground state. For most polar materials, such a higher-symmetry nonpolar phase does not exist or is unknown. Here, we introduce a general high-throughput workflow that screens polar materials as potential ferroelectrics. We demonstrate our workflow on 1978 polar structures in the Materials Project database, for which we automatically generate a nonpolar reference structure using pseudosymmetries, and then compute the polarization difference and energy barrier between polar and nonpolar phases, comparing the predicted values to known ferroelectrics. Focusing on a subset of 182 potential ferroelectrics, we implement a systematic ranking strategy that prioritizes candidates with large polarization and small polar-nonpolar energy differences. To assess stability and synthesizability, we combine information including the computed formation energy above the convex hull, the Inorganic Crystal Structure Database id number, a previously reported machine learning-based synthesizability score, and ab initio phonon band structures. To distinguish between previously reported ferroelectrics, materials known for alternative applications, and lesser-known materials, we combine this ranking with a survey of the existing literature on these candidates through Google Scholar and Scopus databases, revealing ~130 promising materials uninvestigated as ferroelectric. Our workflow and large-scale high-throughput screening lays the groundwork for the discovery of novel ferroelectrics, revealing numerous candidates materials for future experimental and theoretical endeavors.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Protein model accuracy estimation empowered by deep learning and inter-residue distance prediction in CASP14

Abstract The inter-residue contact prediction and deep learning showed the promise to improve the estimation of protein model accuracy (EMA) in the 13th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP13). To further leverage the improved inter-residue distance predictions to enhance EMA, during the 2020 CASP14 experiment, we integrated several new inter-residue distance features with the existing model quality assessment features in several deep learning methods to predict the quality of protein structural models. According to the evaluation of performance in selecting the best model from the models of CASP14 targets, our three multi-model predictors of estimating model accuracy (MULTICOM-CONSTRUCT, MULTICOM-AI, and MULTICOM-CLUSTER) achieve the averaged loss of 0.073, 0.079, and 0.081, respectively, in terms of the global distance test score (GDT-TS). The three methods are ranked first, second, and third out of all 68 CASP14 predictors. MULTICOM-DEEP, the single-model predictor of estimating model accuracy (EMA), is ranked within top 10 among all the single-model EMA methods according to GDT-TS score loss. The results demonstrate that inter-residue distance features are valuable inputs for deep learning to predict the quality of protein structural models. However, larger training datasets and better ways of leveraging inter-residue distance information are needed to fully explore its potentials.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Converting tabular data into images for deep learning with convolutional neural networks

Abstract Convolutional neural networks (CNNs) have been successfully used in many applications where important information about data is embedded in the order of features, such as speech and imaging. However, most tabular data do not assume a spatial relationship between features, and thus are unsuitable for modeling using CNNs. To meet this challenge, we develop a novel algorithm, image generator for tabular data (IGTD), to transform tabular data into images by assigning features to pixel positions so that similar features are close to each other in the image. The algorithm searches for an optimized assignment by minimizing the difference between the ranking of distances between features and the ranking of distances between their assigned pixels in the image. We apply IGTD to transform gene expression profiles of cancer cell lines (CCLs) and molecular descriptors of drugs into their respective image representations. Compared with existing transformation methods, IGTD generates compact image representations with better preservation of feature neighborhood structure. Evaluated on benchmark drug screening datasets, CNNs trained on IGTD image representations of CCLs and drugs exhibit a better performance of predicting anti-cancer drug response than both CNNs trained on alternative image representations and prediction models trained on the original tabular data.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

MULTICOM2 open-source protein structure prediction system powered by deep learning and distance prediction

Protein structure prediction is an important problem in bioinformatics and has been studied for decades. However, there are still few open-source comprehensive protein structure prediction packages publicly available in the field. In this paper, we present our latest open-source protein tertiary structure prediction system—MULTICOM2, an integration of template-based modeling (TBM) and template-free modeling (FM) methods. The template-based modeling uses sequence alignment tools with deep multiple sequence alignments to search for structural templates, which are much faster and more accurate than MULTICOM1. The template-free (ab initio or de novo) modeling uses the inter-residue distances predicted by DeepDist to reconstruct tertiary structure models without using any known structure as template. In the blind CASP14 experiment, the average TM-score of the models predicted by our server predictor based on the MULTICOM2 system is 0.720 for 58 TBM (regular) domains and 0.514 for 38 FM and FM/TBM (hard) domains, indicating that MULTICOM2 is capable of predicting good tertiary structures across the board. It can predict the correct fold for 76 CASP14 domains (95% regular domains and 55% hard domains) if only one prediction is made for a domain. The success rate is increased to 3% for both regular and hard domains if five predictions are made per domain. Moreover, the prediction accuracy of the pure template-free structure modeling method on both TBM and FM targets is very close to the combination of template-based and template-free modeling methods. This demonstrates that the distance-based template-free modeling method powered by deep learning can largely replace the traditional template-based modeling method even on TBM targets that TBM methods used to dominate and therefore provides a uniform structure modeling approach to any protein. Finally, on the 38 CASP14 FM and FM/TBM hard domains, MULTICOM2 server predictors (MULTICOM-HYBRID, MULTICOM-DEEP, MULTICOM-DIST) were ranked among the top 20 automated server predictors in the CASP14 experiment. After combining multiple predictors from the same research group as one entry, MULTICOM-HYBRID was ranked no. 5. The source code of MULTICOM2 is freely available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/multicom/tree/multicom_v2.0 .

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

The effect of protein mutations on drug binding suggests ensuing personalised drug selection

The advent of personalised medicine promises a deeper understanding of mechanisms and therefore therapies. However, the connection between genomic sequences and clinical treatments is often unclear. We studied 50 breast cancer patients belonging to a population-cohort in the state of Qatar. From Sanger sequencing, we identified several new deleterious mutations in the estrogen receptor 1 gene (ESR1). The effect of these mutations on drug treatment in the protein target encoded by ESR1, namely the estrogen receptor, was achieved via rapid and accurate protein–ligand binding affinity interaction studies which were performed for the selected drugs and the natural ligand estrogen. Four nonsynonymous mutations in the ligand-binding domain were subjected to molecular dynamics simulation using absolute and relative binding free energy methods, leading to the ranking of the efficacy of six selected drugs for patients with the mutations. Our study shows that a personalised clinical decision system can be created by integrating an individual patient’s genomic data at the molecular level within a computational pipeline which ranks the efficacy of binding of particular drugs to variant proteins.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

The performance of ensemble-based free energy protocols in computing binding affinities to ROS1 kinase

Optimization of binding affinities for compounds to their target protein is a primary objective in drug discovery. Herein we report on a collaborative study that evaluates a set of compounds binding to ROS1 kinase. We use ESMACS (enhanced sampling of molecular dynamics with approximation of continuum solvent) and TIES (thermodynamic integration with enhanced sampling) protocols to rank the binding free energies. The predicted binding free energies from ESMACS simulations show good correlations with experimental data for subsets of the compounds. Consistent binding free energy differences are generated for TIES and ESMACS. Although an unexplained overestimation exists, we obtain excellent statistical rankings across the set of compounds from the TIES protocol, with a Pearson correlation coefficient of 0.90 between calculated and experimental activities.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evolutionary inverse design of defects at graphene 2D lateral interfaces

Grain boundaries (GBs) in two-dimensional (2D) materials often have a profound impact on various material properties from mechanical to optical to electronic, yet predicting all possible GB formations is a challenge. Here, we introduce a workflow based on an evolutionary algorithm for exploring possible GBs formed at a lateral 2D interface. In a departure from conventional genetic algorithm based structure optimization methods, we perform genetic operations in the near interface region that allow us to be computationally efficient. We benchmark our method using graphene, which is a well-studied 2D material with a wide range of point defects. An empirical potential was used as the surrogate of the evolutionary search. More than 11.5 × 106 structures in total were evaluated for 128 GB orientations, and for each orientation, the ten best structures are recorded. A subset of low energy GBs predicted by empirical potential based search was relaxed by first-principles calculations and used to validate the energetic rank order. With the validated formation energy, we rank-ordered the best 128 GB structures and performed a detailed statistical analysis of primitive rings to find the correlation between the ring distribution and the formation energy. We found that for low energy GBs (below 0.5eV/Å), Stone–Wales defects will dominate, while structures with a higher energy (0.5–1.1eV/Å) show an increasing population of heptagons and nine-membered rings to form seven-nine defect pairs. For structures with energy higher than 1.1eV/Å, the percentage of octagons and nine-membered rings increases, which indicates that these two types of rings are not energetically favorable. Our proposed methodology is broadly applicable to explore defective low dimensional materials and represents a powerful tool that enables a systematic search of GBs of lateral interfaces for 2D materials.

Zhang, Jianan↗

Structure prediction of epitaxial inorganic interfaces by lattice and surface matching with Ogre

We present a new version of the Ogre open source Python package with the capability to perform structure prediction of epitaxial inorganic interfaces by lattice and surface matching. In the lattice matching step, a scan over combinations of substrate and film Miller indices is performed to identify the domain-matched interfaces with the lowest mismatch. Subsequently, surface matching is conducted by Bayesian optimization to find the optimal interfacial distance and in-plane registry between the substrate and the film. For the objective function, a geometric score function is proposed based on the overlap and empty space between atomic spheres at the interface. The score function reproduces the results of density functional theory (DFT) at a fraction of the computational cost. The optimized interfaces are pre-ranked using a score function based on the similarity of the atomic environment at the interface to the bulk environment. Final ranking of the top candidate structures is performed with DFT. Ogre streamlines DFT calculations of interface energies and electronic properties by automating the construction of interface models. The application of Ogre is demonstrated for two interfaces of interest for quantum computing and spintronics, Al/InAs and Fe/InSb.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Evaluating the active site-substrate interplay between x-ray crystal structure and molecular dynamics in chorismate mutase

Designing realistic quantum mechanical (QM) models of enzymes is dependent on reliably discerning and modeling residues, solvents, and cofactors important in crafting the active site microenvironment. Interatomic van der Waals contacts have previously demonstrated usefulness toward designing QM-models, but their measured values (and subsequent residue importance rankings) are expected to be influenceable by subtle changes in protein structure. Using chorismate mutase as a case study, this work examines the differences in ligand-residue interatomic contacts between an x-ray crystal structure and structures from a molecular dynamics simulation. Select structures are further analyzed using symmetry adapted perturbation theory to compute ab initio ligand-residue interaction energies. The findings of this study show that ligand-residue interatomic contacts measured for an x-ray crystal structure are not predictive of active site contacts from a sampling of molecular dynamics frames. In addition, the variability in interatomic contacts among structures is not correlated with variability in interaction energies. However, the results spotlight using interaction energies to characterize and rank residue importance in future computational enzymology workflows.

Chemistry↗

A new “gold standard”: Perturbative triples corrections in unitary coupled cluster theory and prospects for quantum computing

A major difficulty in quantum simulation is the adequate treatment of a large collection of entangled particles, synonymous with electron correlation in electronic structure theory, with coupled cluster (CC) theory being the leading framework for dealing with this problem. Augmenting computationally affordable low-rank approximations in CC theory with a perturbative account of higher-rank excitations is a tractable and effective way of accounting for the missing electron correlation in those approximations. This is perhaps best exemplified by the “gold standard” CCSD(T) method, which bolsters the baseline CCSD with the effects of triple excitations using considerations from many-body perturbation theory (MBPT). Despite this established success, such a synergy between MBPT and the unitary analog of CC theory (UCC) has not been explored. In this work, we propose a similar approach wherein converged UCCSD amplitudes are leveraged to evaluate energy corrections associated with triple excitations, leading to the UCCSD[T] method. In terms of quantum computing, this correction represents an entirely classical post-processing step that improves the energy estimate by accounting for triple excitation effects without necessitating new quantum algorithm developments or increasing demand for quantum resources. The rationale behind this choice is shown to be rigorous by studying the properties of finite-order UCC energy functionals, and our efforts do not support the addition of the fifth-order contributions as in the (T) correction. We assess the performance of these approaches on a collection of small molecules and demonstrate the benefits of harnessing the inherent synergy between MBPT and UCC theories.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Extended dynamic mode decomposition for model reduction in fluid dynamics simulations

High computational cost and storage/memory requirements of fluid dynamics simulations constrain their usefulness as a predictive tool. Reduced-order models (ROMs) provide a viable solution to this challenge by extracting the key underlying dynamics of a complex system directly from data. We investigate the efficacy and robustness of an extended dynamic mode decomposition (xDMD) algorithm in constructing ROMs of three-dimensional cardiovascular computations. Focusing on the ROMs' accuracy in representation and interpolation, we relate these metrics to the truncation rank of singular value decomposition, which underpins xDMD and other approaches to ROM construction. Our key innovation is to relate the truncation rank to the singular values of the original flow problem. This result establishes a priori guidelines for the xDMD deployment and its likely success as a means of data compression and reconstruction of the system's dynamics from dominant spatiotemporal structures present in the data.

Mechanics↗

Where to cool off: a geospatial framework for placement of cooling centers

Indoor cooling is essential to reduce heat stress and increase passive survivability during heatwaves. Although air conditioning (AC) is recommended for maintaining indoor thermal comfort, low- and medium-income households in the U.S. often do not own an AC and/or limit AC usage to reduce energy consumption and associated costs, thereby risking their health and safety. With the frequency and intensity of heatwaves increasing, cooling centers are considered an appropriate alternative to indoor cooling and a possible mitigation strategy to prevent adverse health impacts of heat exposure. However, these centers are limited in numbers and not always accessible. This requires (i) developing a geospatial framework using physical and social factors for optimal siting of cooling centers to meet future needs and (ii) ranking of existing and potential cooling centers (schools, libraries, religious institutions) based on their accessibility among vulnerable populations and proximity to healthcare facilities. We developed and deployed a geospatial framework based on the Multi-criteria Decision Analysis approach in five U.S. cities (Los Angeles (LA), Phoenix, Austin, Atlanta, Miami) to evaluate the effectiveness of the framework in ranking cooling centers based on accessibility and population coverage. The results revealed that (i) access to cooling centers varies across cities and 32.2–50.7% of centers are within walking distance of the most vulnerable populations, (ii) vulnerable populations exposed to Urban Heat Island (UHI) effects are more likely to experience energy burden, and (iii) about 21.2–49.4% of population with high energy burden have access to these centers. Considering that more cooling centers are needed to assist energy burdened households alleviate heat exposure impacts, the framework developed herein could be adapted to incorporate other factors (e.g. health impacts, policies) to assess site suitability of existing shelters, identify potential sites for new cooling centers, and geo-target communities where energy efficient emerging technologies could be deployed to reduce heat stress.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Chronically underestimated: a reassessment of US heat waves using the extended heat index

Abstract The heat index, or apparent temperature, was never defined for extreme heat and humidity, leading to the widespread adoption of a polynomial extrapolation designed by the United States National Weather Service. Recently, however, the heat index has been extended to all combinations of temperature and humidity, presenting an opportunity to reassess past heat waves. Here, three-hourly temperature and humidity are used to evaluate the extended heat index over the contiguous United States during the years 1984–2020. It is found that the 99.9th percentile of the daily maximum heat index is highest over the Midwest. Identifying and ranking heat waves by the spatially integrated exceedance of that percentile, the Midwest once again stands out as home to the most extreme heat waves, including the top-ranked July 2011 and July 1995 heat waves. The extended heat index can also be used to evaluate the physiological stress induced by heat and humidity. It is found that the most extreme Midwest heat waves tax the cardiovascular system with a skin blood flow that is elevated severalfold, approaching the physiological limit. These effects are not captured by the National Weather Service’s polynomial extrapolation, which also underestimates the heat index by as much as 10 ∘ C (20 ∘ F) during severe heat waves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Quantum mixed state compiling

The task of learning a quantum circuit to prepare a given mixed state is a fundamental quantum subroutine. We present a variational quantum algorithm (VQA) to learn mixed states which is suitable for near-term hardware. Our algorithm represents a generalization of previous VQAs that aimed at learning preparation circuits for pure states. We consider two different ansätze for compiling the target state; the first is based on learning a purification of the state and the second on representing it as a convex combination of pure states. In both cases, the resources required to store and manipulate the compiled state grow with the rank of the approximation. Thus, by learning a lower rank approximation of the target state, our algorithm provides a means of compressing a state for more efficient processing. As a byproduct of our algorithm, one effectively learns the principal components of the target state, and hence our algorithm further provides a new method for principal component analysis. We investigate the efficacy of our algorithm through extensive numerical implementations, showing that typical random states and thermal states of many body systems may be learnt this way. Additionally, we demonstrate on quantum hardware how our algorithm can be used to study hardware noise-induced states.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗

Global Sensitivity Analysis of a Reactive Transport Model for Mineral Scale Formation During Hydraulic Fracturing

Injection of water-based hydraulic fracturing fluid (HFF) into tight shale gas/oil formations can increase formation permeability and enhance production rates, but this process frequently causes mineral scale formation that can occlude pore space and hinder flow. To identify the most important factors that control the formation of mineral scales, we applied a novel global sensitivity analysis method—distance-based generalized sensitivity analysis (DGSA)—to a reactive transport model (RTM) that was previously built and calibrated to simulate precipitation of barite [BaSO4] and iron (hydr)oxide [Fe(OH) 3 ] in shale matrices and on fracture surfaces. Reactive transport simulations were run with model parameters randomly sampled based on assigned uncertainties. Modeling results for barite and Fe(OH)3 formation were clustered using machine-learning algorithms. A list of ranked critical input parameters was obtained after statistical quantification of cumulative distribution functions of input parameters. We found that barite formation is most sensitive to the rate of sulfate ion generation, which is determined by the pyrite dissolution rate coefficient and oxidant availability. In addition, barite formation is sensitive to the initial amounts of barite in HFF and shale, followed by barite thermodynamics/kinetics. For Fe(OH) 3 formation, the ranked factors are Fe(OH)3 precipitation rate coefficients, initial HFF pH, initial Fe(OH) 3 amount in HFF, and oxidant availability. Overall, our results provide insights into managing mineral scale formation during hydraulic fracturing to enhance production. Meanwhile, this study serves as an example of global sensitivity analysis of RTMs using the efficient, straightforward, and open-source DGSA method.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

TreeSAPP: the Tree-based Sensitive and Accurate Phylogenetic Profiler

Microbial communities drive matter and energy transformations integral to global biogeochemical cycles, yet many taxonomic groups facilitating these processes remain poorly represented in biological sequence databases. Due to this missing information, taxonomic assignment of sequences from environmental genomes remains inaccurate. We present the Tree-based Sensitive and Accurate Phylogenetic Profiler (TreeSAPP) software for functionally and taxonomically classifying genes, reactions and pathways from genomes of cultivated and uncultivated microorganisms using reference packages representing coding sequences mediating multiple globally relevant biogeochemical cycles. TreeSAPP uses linear regression of evolutionary distance on taxonomic rank to improve classifications, assigning both closely related and divergent query sequences at the appropriate taxonomic rank. TreeSAPP is able to provide quantitative functional and taxonomic classifications for both assembled and unassembled sequences and files supporting interactive tree of life visualizations.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Improving deep learning-based protein distance prediction in CASP14

Abstract Motivation Accurate prediction of residue–residue distances is important for protein structure prediction. We developed several protein distance predictors based on a deep learning distance prediction method and blindly tested them in the 14th Critical Assessment of Protein Structure Prediction (CASP14). The prediction method uses deep residual neural networks with the channel-wise attention mechanism to classify the distance between every two residues into multiple distance intervals. The input features for the deep learning method include co-evolutionary features as well as other sequence-based features derived from multiple sequence alignments (MSAs). Three alignment methods are used with multiple protein sequence/profile databases to generate MSAs for input feature generation. Based on different configurations and training strategies of the deep learning method, five MULTICOM distance predictors were created to participate in the CASP14 experiment. Results Benchmarked on 37 hard CASP14 domains, the best performing MULTICOM predictor is ranked 5th out of 30 automated CASP14 distance prediction servers in terms of precision of top L/5 long-range contact predictions [i.e. classifying distances between two residues into two categories: in contact (<8 Angstrom) and not in contact otherwise] and performs better than the best CASP13 distance prediction method. The best performing MULTICOM predictor is also ranked 6th among automated server predictors in classifying inter-residue distances into 10 distance intervals defined by CASP14 according to the precision of distance classification. The results show that the quality and depth of MSAs depend on alignment methods and sequence databases and have a significant impact on the accuracy of distance prediction. Using larger training datasets and multiple complementary features improves prediction accuracy. However, the number of effective sequences in MSAs is only a weak indicator of the quality of MSAs and the accuracy of predicted distance maps. In contrast, there is a strong correlation between the accuracy of contact/distance predictions and the average probability of the predicted contacts, which can therefore be more effectively used to estimate the confidence of distance predictions and select predicted distance maps. Availability and implementation The software package, source code and data of DeepDist2 are freely available at https://github.com/multicom-toolbox/deepdist and https://zenodo.org/record/4712084#.YIIM13VKhQM. Supplementary information Supplementary data are available at Bioinformatics online.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗