Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “risk modeling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 307 records · Page 17

Spaceflight Biospecimen and Data Sharing in Support of Science Discovery and Exploration

For decades, NASA and international partners have conducted biological experiments in space to understand effects of spaceflight and address potential hazards. To enable spaceflight back to the Moon, and then to Mars and beyond, it is imperative to further understand basic science and health risks associated with spaceflight, along with developing countermeasures. The sending of experiments and organisms into space is a costly endeavor. To maximize scientific return, sharing with the scientific community both space-flown biospecimens and data from completed experiments is essential. New fundamental, applied, and bioinformatic science insights can be gained from specimen and data sharing efforts. Data reuse enables spaceflight health risk modeling, analyzing adverse outcomes across spaceflight hazards, and deep space autonomous support for the flight medical officer. Space-flown biospecimens not required by mission Principal Investigators are regularly archived and made available for scientific request. The largest biorepository of these samples are found within NASA’s Institutional Scientific Collection at Ames Research Center (ISC-ARC), which stores over 32,000 specimens mostly from Shuttle and International Space Station (ISS) missions, but also some ground-based analog samples. The Ames Life Sciences Data Archive manages the ISC-ARC. Tissues are predominantly from mice and rats, though samples are also available from bacteria and quail. Only a handful of other similar collections exist worldwide. Rodent biospecimens exposed to simulated space radiation at Brookhaven National Laboratory are archived under the purview of NASA HRP Space Radiation Element. Microbial collection and analyses from 20 years of routine environmental monitoring of air, surfaces, and water systems of the ISS were performed to ensure a safe environment for astronauts. Samples from the ISC-ARC, space radiation and microbial collections are searchable and requestable through the NASA Life Sciences Data Archive (LSDA). Decades of planetary protection microbial isolates derived from spacecraft bioburden are archived in JPL’s microbial collection. Rodent biospecimens from spaceflight investigations conducted by the Japan Aerospace Exploration Agency (JAXA) are archived and available at the JAXA Biorepository at Tsukuba Space Center. The Russian Institute of Biomedical Problems also has a collection of animal, microbial, cellular, and fungi available for research from ground analog experiments. Several data repositories exist for scientists to utilize. The LSDA is the primary NASA source of life sciences research data and information. It contains decades of spaceflight and ground-analog research involving human, microbial, cellular, plant, and animal subjects. Data is collected from NASA-funded investigations through the Human Research Program and the Space Biology Program. The NASA Lifetime Surveillance of Astronaut Health collects and grants access to clinical and occupational health monitoring data from astronauts, with a list and description of data collected available for request through the LSDA. NASA GeneLab at ARC collects genomic, transcriptomic, proteomic, and metabolomic data from any species. It is a repository and platform for collaborative open-science bioinformatic approaches. JAXA is establishing an ‘omics-based repository in collaboration with the Tohoku Medical Megabank (ToMMo), called the JAXA-ToMMo Integrated Biobank for Space Life Science. Overall, the sharing of these biospecimen and data resources can assist researchers worldwide in understanding spaceflight effects on biology, along with enabling next generation data science applications for space exploration platforms. Websites: https://lsda.jsc.nasa.gov/ ; https://www.nasa.gov/ames/research/space-biosciences/isc-bsp ; https://www.nasa.gov/ames/research/space-biosciences/alsda

Ryan T. Scott↗

Biospecimen and Data Sharing: NASA Institutional Scientific Collection at Ames Research Center (ISC-ARC), and the Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA)

For decades, NASA and international partners have conducted biological experiments in space to understand effects of spaceflight and address potential hazards. To enable spaceflight back to the Moon, and then to Mars and beyond, it is imperative to further understand basic science and health risks associated with spaceflight, along with developing countermeasures. The sending of experiments and organisms into space is a costly endeavor. To maximize scientific return, sharing with the scientific community both space-flown biospecimens and data from completed experiments is essential. New fundamental, applied, and bioinformatic science insights can be gained from specimen and data sharing efforts. Data reuse enables spaceflight health risk modeling, analyzing adverse outcomes across spaceflight hazards, and deep space autonomous support for the flight medical officer.

Data↗

Chile Disasters: Automating Wildfire Risk and Occurrence Mapping in Google Earth Engine to Improve Wildfire Detection and Response Time Efforts

Wildfires in Chile in the last decade were the worst on record, destroying homes and livelihoods, polluting the air, and displacing whole towns. To predict locations where wildfires were likely to start, the Corporación Nacional Forestal (CONAF) created a wildfire risk model within ArcGIS Pro and Google Earth Engine (GEE) that utilized the NOAA Global Forecast System (GFS) and the NASA Shuttle Radar Topography Mission (STRM) 90-meter datasets. The previous CONAF model was very resource-heavy and time-intensive to run. NASA DEVELOP, in partnership with CONAF, automated the previous model and transferred it fully into GEE where all Earth observation datasets could be used without downloading. The new model substantially reduced the runtime. The final model was used to create a near real-time wildfire monitoring application as well as fire severity maps. The end products will be used by CONAF for wildfire prediction and management to prevent more destruction in the future.

Maria De Los Santos↗

Enabling Space Biological Knowledge Discovery Through Image and Video Data Sharing

Increased biomedical risks associated with deep space crewed missions (cis-Lunar, Mars transit/surface) require development of health countermeasures, novel ecosystem support, risk modeling, and fundamental space biological knowledge discovery. Molecular-omics, physiological-phenotypic-behavioral, and environmental-radiation telemetry data from space biological and health studies are needed for reuse by scientists to address these tasks. The data as well as space-relevant biospecimens are being made more findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable through NASA’s Open Science Data Repository (OSDR). This new OSDR umbrella grouping includes NASA GeneLab, the NASA Ames Life Sciences Data Archive (ALSDA), and the NASA Biological Institutional Scientific Collection. The OSDR system design appropriately handles metadata and processed-tabular results from ALSDA studies collected from space experiments. But raw and processed ALSDA bioimage and video datasets require an expansion of OSDR’s data architecture to handle ingestion, curation, and egress. The academic-industry bioimaging field saw a scientific renaissance in the past several years through leveraging open-source software, international collaborations, machine learning, and other open science/programming approaches. As crewed missions and more biological experiments are on the deep space horizon, OSDR is embracing data stewardship through listening to feedback from subject matter experts and designing an expanded architecture which is appropriate for NASA’s goals to enable analysis and reuse of bioimaging and video data for the public science community.Discovery Through Image and Video Data Sharing

space biology↗

Introduction to Asteroid Impact Risk Assessment

This presentation provides an introductory overview of key factors involved in the asteroid impact threat assessment and risk modeling performed for the Planetary Defense Conference hypothetical impact exercises.

ATAP↗

Core Body Temperature Predictions Using Metabolic Energy Expenditure and Heart Rate During Simulated Extravehicular Activity

Long duration spaceflight missions will require crew to become more autonomous in conducting extravehicular activities (EVA) without direct communication with Mission Control for biomedical support. To enable such autonomy, we are developing a Crew State and Risk Model (CSRM) as a collection of key physiology domains that drive EVA crew capabilities and workloads. One model component of CSRM is human thermal regulation. In this paper, customized development of a baseline model to predict core body temperature is presented using physiology inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. The model development dataset included a baseline study where participants (n=6, equal male and female) performed a 5-hour EVA in a two-part session while wearing a hybrid space suit simulator (HS3). The first session included an end-to-end EVA traversing 1500 meters to a geology site and traversing back to a habitat conducting geology, payload relocation, and maintenance operations every 500 meters. The second session included standalone tasks of a 2000-meter traverse followed by geology tasks. Thermal measures of core body temperature, local skin temperature, liquid cooling garment temperature, heart rate, and metabolic rate were collected through the test duration. Multiple regression was used to build a linear equation to predict core body temperature from inputs of heart rate and metabolic rate. Heat storage was calculated via predicted core body temperature plus LCG and skin temperatures. The model was tested against a dataset from a pressurized suited test (n=6, equal male and female) in the NASA Active Response Gravity Offload System (ARGOS) conducting similar end-to-end EVA and standalone tasks. Predicted error of the model against the raw test cases was 0.2±0.15 °C. The baseline prediction of core body temperature using heart rates and metabolic rates allows for simple real-time tracking from data collected in-flight to monitor crew consumables and thermal flight limits during EVA.

Bradley Hoffmann↗

Somatic Mutation Analysis in Spaceflight: NASA Twins Genome Study

The NASA Twins Genome Study investigates the effects of spaceflight on somatic mutation accumulation by comparing genome-wide sequence data from a spaceflight astronaut and his Earth-bound twin. Utilizing advanced computational software on high performance computers, this study identifies and maps somatic mutations, with implications for understanding spaceflight-associated health risks, including cancer, neurodegeneration, and cardiovascular disease. The findings aim to bridge rodent and human space research, offering insights into tissue-specific pathophysiology, risk models, and potential therapeutic interventions.

somatic mutation↗

Physical Security Timeline Analysis in Support of Advanced Reactor Demonstration and Deployment

This report presents the regulatory requirements and directions on the physical security of advanced nuclear reactors in USA. Presently, a rule is being proposed that allows for a performance-based analysis. In determining the physical security requirements for an advanced reactor, new tools may be desired to conduct a performance-based analysis. These tools should incorporate dynamic analysis methods to provide as much realism as possible. In comparison, the security requirements for existing light water reactors (LWRs) are much more prescriptive and the analysis conducted to establish the required physical security strategies were more easily performed with static analysis. In order to achieve the cost goals that advanced reactors require for adoption; the nuclear security force required should not be excessive. Dynamic physical security analysis methods and tools have been developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE) Light Water Reactor Sustainability (LWRS) program. This report details how the dynamic risk analysis tools developed in the LWRS program using the dynamic risk modelling tool, EMRALD, may be adapted for use in analyzing the physical security designs for advanced reactors accounting for variable performance-based requirements. This report provides an example analysis of a hypothetical SFR using publicly available information and generic assumptions to demonstrate the methods and potential presentation and analysis of the results. No actual plant information is used in this example analysis. Future work in this area will create additional models that can be adapted for any advanced reactor concept and use various security features to create a physical security system that provides adequate protection from radiological theft and sabotage.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Validation and Comparison of HyRAM Physics Models

The Hydrogen Risk Assessment Models (HyRAM) software version 3 uses a real gas equation of state rather than the Abel-Noble equation of state that is used in 2.0 and previous versions. This change enables the use of HyRAM 3 for cryogenic hydrogen flows, whereas the Abel-Noble equation of state is not accurate at low temperatures. HyRAM 3.1 results were compared to experimental data from the literature in order to demonstrate the accuracy of the physics models. HyRAM 3.1 results were also compared to HyRAM 2.0 for high-pressure, non-cryogenic flows to highlight the differences in predictions between the two major versions of HyRAM. Validation data sets are from multiple groups and span the range of HyRAM physics models, including tank blowdown, unignited dispersion jet plume, ignited jet flame, and accumulation and overpressure inside an enclosure. Both versions 2.0 and 3.1 of HyRAM are accurate for predictions of blowdowns, diffusion jets, and diffusion flames of hydrogen at pressures up to 900 bar, and HyRAM 3.1 also shows good agreement with cryogenic hydrogen data. Overall, HyRAM 3.1 improves on the accuracy of the physical models relative to HyRAM 2.0. In most cases, this reduces the conservatism in risk calculations using HyRAM.

08 HYDROGEN↗

A Modeling-Based Flammable Risk Treatment of Refrigerant Leakage from a Commercial R-290 Refrigeration Machine

Because of serious concerns about global warming, manufacturers have started phasing out high global warming potential (GWP) refrigerants in commercial refrigeration equipment (e.g., R-134a). As a potential replacement, propane (R-290) is an environmentally friendly refrigerant for commercial refrigeration equipment because its GWP is only three. However, propane is flammable and is therefore classified as a Class A3 refrigerant per ASHRAE Standards, so safety is a very important consideration when propane-based equipment is designed and deployed in buildings. In the event of a refrigerant leak, flammability of the refrigerant depends on the refrigerant’s local concentration, which is highly affected by the indoor air environment, including temperature and air flow. In this study, a ventilation system attached to a commercial R-290 refrigeration device was designed to eliminate the flammability risk. Moreover, a computational fluid dynamics (CFD) model was developed to investigate the refrigerant leak, thereby evaluating effects of the ventilation system. The CFD model can visualize the flammable zones owing to the leak.

42 ENGINEERING↗

Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences and for worst-case flux during space missions is presented. New features include the solar minimum time period and proton energy spectra that extend to higher energies.

Xapsos, M. A.↗

Model for Solar Proton Risk Assessment

A statistical model for cumulative solar proton event fluences during space missions is presented that covers both the solar minimum and solar maximum phases of the solar cycle. It is based on data from the IMP and GOES series of satellites that is integrated together to allow the best features of each data set to be taken advantage of. This allows fluence-energy spectra to be extended out to energies of 327 MeV.

Xapos, M. A.↗

Modeling of Radiation Risks for Human Space Missions

Prior to any human space flight, calculations of radiation risks are used to determine the acceptable scope of astronaut activity. Using the supercomputing facilities at NASA Ames Research Center, Ames researchers have determined the damage probabilities of DNA functional groups by space radiation. The data supercede those used in the current Monte Carlo model for risk assessment. One example is the reaction of DNA with hydroxyl radical produced by the interaction of highly energetic particles from space radiation with water molecules in the human body. This reaction is considered an important cause of DNA mutations, although its mechanism is not well understood.

Fletcher, Graham↗

A Software Quality Model and Metrics for Risk Assessment

A software quality model and its associated attributes are defined and used as the model for the basis for a discussion on risk. Specific quality goals and attributes are selected based on their importance to a software development project and their ability to be quantified. Risks that can be determined by the model's metrics are identified. A core set of metrics relating to the software development process and its products is defined. Measurements for each metric and their usability and applicability are discussed.

L Hyatt↗

IAM-FIRE: a Climate Emulator–Based Framework to Project Wildfire Impacts and Risks for Integrated Assessment Models

Most Integrated Assessment Models (IAMs) underrepresent dynamic feedbacks from climate-driven disturbances such as wildfires, potentially overestimating the permanence of land-based carbon sinks. In particular, representing the impacts of forest fires is becoming increasingly important, as these are expected to intensify in the coming years. We introduce IAM-FIRE (Integrated Assessment Model – Fire Impacts & Risks Emulator), a novel framework that enables the projection of wildfire burned area (BA) and carbon emissions (CE) directly from IAM outputs. IAM-FIRE combines a spatial climate emulator, land-use downscaling, vegetation productivity modelling, and an empirical fire model to generate global annual wildfire impacts for arbitrary socioeconomic and emissions scenarios at 0.5° resolution for the period 2020–2100. Calibrated against GFEDv5 observations and using inputs from the Global Change Analysis Model (GCAM), we report projections BA and CE derived from IAM-FIRE for four scenarios: SSP1-2.6, SSP2-4.5, SSP3-6.6 and SSP5-7.6. The model reproduces historical global trends for total BA, including the observed global decline since the early 2000s, and for forest BA. Projected fire trajectories differ strongly among scenarios: total BA range from declines under SSP1-2.6 (-3.36 Mha yr-1) to increases under SSP3-6.6 (+1.6 Mha yr-1). Corresponding total CE show a similar divergence ranging from -15 to +10.6 TgC yr-1. Socioeconomic development exerts a dominant suppressing effect on wildfire impacts while climate change and CO2-driven increases in vegetation productivity amplify fire risk, particularly under high-emissions pathways. Compared with CMIP6 fire-enabled Earth System Models, IAM-FIRE exhibits greater sensitivity to radiative forcing and a stronger role for human-driven fire suppression, highlighting substantial structural uncertainties in future fire projections. By providing a computationally efficient and internally consistent approach to represent wildfire impacts within IAMs, IAM-FIRE enables systematic exploration of fire–climate–land feedbacks and supports improved assessments of mitigation permanence and climate risks in future integrated scenarios.

Rouhette, Theo↗

INTEGRATION OF FLEX EQUIPMENT AND OPERATOR ACTIONS IN PLANT FORCE-ON-FORCE MODELS WITH DYNAMIC RISK ASSESSMENT

The overall operation and maintenance cost to protect nuclear power plants accounts for approximately 7% of the total cost of power generation, with labor accounting for half of this cost. In the current research, from interaction with utilities and other stakeholders, it was determined that physical security forces account for nearly 20% of the entire workforce at several nuclear power plants. Labor costs continue to rise in the U.S., so any measures to reduce the cost of operating a nuclear power plant will need to include a reduction in labor. The physical security pathway within the DOE’s Light Water Reactor Sustainability program aims to lower the cost of physical security through directed research into modeling and simulation, application of advanced sensors or deployment of advanced weapons. This report presents a modeling and simulation framework for integrating Diverse and Flexible Mitigation Capability (FLEX) portable equipment performance with Force on Force models of a plant’s physical security posture. The generic framework is described in detail, followed by a case study of modeling an adversarial attack aimed at causing a radiological release by sabotaging the plant’s power supply and its ultimate heat sink capabilities at a hypothetical nuclear power plant. Two different FLEX deployment strategies, series and parallel, are modeled with distinct timelines. The results of the adversarial attack modeled in a commercial Force on Force tool are integrated with the FLEX deployment model in INL’s dynamic modeling tool EMRALD. Monte Carlo simulation is used to model the distribution of the timeline in FLEX deployment strategies. The results demonstrate that, even in the extreme case of a successful adversarial attack, deployment of FLEX equipment can result in a significantly high likelihood of preventing radiological release. The modeling and simulation framework integrating FLEX equipment with Force on Force models enables the nuclear power plants to credit FLEX portable equipment in the plant security posture, resulting in an efficient and optimized physical security.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗