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Computational Analyses in Support of Sub-scale Diffuser Testing for the A-3 Facility: Steady Predictions - Part 1

Simulation technology can play an important role in rocket engine test facility design and development by assessing risks, providing analysis of dynamic pressure and thermal loads, identifying failure modes and predicting anomalous behavior of critical systems. Advanced numerical tools assume greater significance in supporting testing and design of high altitude testing facilities and plume induced testing environments of high thrust engines because of the greater inter-dependence and synergy in the functioning of the different sub-systems. This is especially true for facilities such as the proposed A-3 facility at NASA SSC because of a challenging operating envelope linked to variable throttle conditions at relatively low chamber pressures. Facility designs in this case will require a complex network of diffuser ducts, steam ejector trains, fast operating valves, cooling water systems and flow diverters that need to be characterized for steady state performance. In this paper, we will demonstrate with the use of CFD analyses s advanced capability to evaluate supersonic diffuser and steam ejector performance in a sub-scale A-3 facility at NASA Stennis Space Center (SSC) where extensive testing was performed. Furthermore, the focus in this paper relates to modeling of critical sub-systems and components used in facilities such as the A-3 facility. The work here will address deficiencies in empirical models and current CFD analyses that are used for design of supersonic diffusers/turning vanes/ejectors as well as analyses for confined plumes and venting processes. The primary areas that will be addressed are: (1) supersonic diffuser performance including analyses of thermal loads (2) accurate shock capturing in the diffuser duct; (3) effect of turning duct on the performance of the facility (4) prediction of mass flow rates and performance classification for steam ejectors (5) comparisons with test data from sub-scale diffuser testing and assessment of confidence levels in CFD based flowpath modeling of the facility. The analyses tools used here expand on the multi-element unstructured CFD which has been tailored and validated for impingement dynamics of dry plumes, complex valve/feed systems, and high pressure propellant delivery systems used in engine and component test stands at NASA SSC. The analyses performed in the evaluation of the sub-scale diffuser facility explored several important factors that influence modeling and understanding of facility operation such as (a) importance of modeling the facility with Real Gas approximation, (b) approximating the cluster of steam ejector nozzles as a single annular nozzle, (c) existence of mixed subsonic/supersonic flow downstream of the turning duct, and (d) inadequacy of two-equation turbulence models in predicting the correct pressurization in the turning duct and expansion of the second stage steam ejectors. The procedure used for modeling the facility was as follows: (i) The engine, test cell and first stage ejectors were simulated with an axisymmetric approximation (ii) the turning duct, second stage ejectors and the piping downstream of the second stage ejectors were analyzed with a three-dimensional simulation utilizing a half-plane symmetry approximation. The solution i.e. primitive variables such as pressure, velocity components, temperature and turbulence quantities were passed from the first computational domain and specified as a supersonic boundary condition for the second simulation. (iii) The third domain comprised of the exit diffuser and the region in the vicinity of the facility (primary included to get the correct shock structure at the exit of the facility and entrainment characteristics). The first set of simulations comprising the engine, test cell and first stage ejectors was carried out both as a turbulent real gas calculation as well as a turbulent perfect gas calculation. A comparison for the two cases (Real Turbulent and Perfect gas turbulent) of the Ma Number distribution and temperature distributions are shown in Figures 1 and 2 respectively.

Allgood, Daniel C.↗

The Role of Nuclear Data Sensitivities in Prompt α-Eigenvalue Predictions of Delayed Critical Benchmarks

Alpha (α) eigenvalues, which describe the logarithmic time derivative of the neutron population in a multiplying system, are integral to time-dependent behavior and diagnostic applications. However, uncertainties in the evaluated nuclear data can significantly impact the accuracy of transport simulations for such quantities. This work explores the use of machine learning models to predict two key outputs, α-eigenvalues and keff bias, using input features derived from α-eigenvalue sensitivities to nuclear data. The criticality safety benchmark models used in this study come from the International Handbook of Evaluated Criticality Safety Benchmark Experiments. Three models, random forest, XGBoost, and NGBoost, are trained on both energy-resolved and energy-summed α sensitivities. For the α-eigenvalue bias prediction, NGBoost achieved the highest R 2 (0.9476) using energy-resolved features, while XGBoost performed best using summed sensitivities. In contrast, when predicting the keff bias, all the models showed moderate predictive capability (best R 2 ≈ 0.72), as the mapping from the static α-sensitivities to the static keff bias was less direct. SHAP (SHapley Additive exPlanations) analysis was used to interpret the model predictions. Across both prediction tasks, the features associated with neutron capture [H-1 (n, γ)], uranium scattering reactions (such as 235 U elastic/inelastic), and actinide capture/fission reactions (such as 239 Pu and 234 U) were consistently identified as the most impactful. This highlights the key role of specific nuclear reactions and energy ranges in shaping both time-dependent and steady-state criticality behavior. These results demonstrated that α-sensitivities, despite being computed for time-dependent metrics, can provide valuable insights for predicting both α-eigenvalues and the keff bias. Moreover, machine learning models offer a promising pathway for uncovering important nuclear data dependencies and guiding future data evaluation efforts.

Nuclear data↗

Massive all-atom analysis of 2D materials with quantum properties (Final report)

Improvements in microscopy have enabled the acquisition of data at a scale that is difficult to process manually, making automated machine learning approaches to analyzing experimental images essential. In this project, we developed and applied machine learning (ML) workflows for atomic resolution scanning transmission electron microscopy (STEM) images. This development included improving both methodology as well as generating user-friendly codes. We developed machine learning architectures which, after training, automatically identify the location and types of defects throughout a material. We used these data to produce class-averaged images of 2D atomic coordinates with up to 0.3 pm precision, uncovering the structure and oscillations of long-range strain fields around point defects in WSe 2-2x Te 2x . We also resolved a long-standing problem in this field in the training of ML models, a lack of labeled experimental data, by developing a cycle-GAN that transformed simulated-generated labeled data into labeled data indistinguishable from experiment and therefore suitable for training. This removed the remaining parts of the ML data processing workflow where human intervention was still critical and therefore a bottleneck to working at scale. Codes have been developed and released for this full machine learning workflow. ML approaches to partially automate STEM acquisition were also developed. Finally we applied ML and other advanced data processing methods to several materials science problems in two-dimensional materials, including studying the evolution of hyperuniformity with defect concentration in WSe2, understanding phase transformations in transition metal dichalcogenides during in-situ heating in the STEM, and exploring how 2D interfaces transform from twisted into aligned structures.

75 CONDENSED MATTER PHYSICS, SUPERCONDUCTIVITY AND↗

Semi-supervised permutation invariant particle-level anomaly detection

The development of analysis methods to distinguish potential beyond the Standard Model phenomena in a model-agnostic way can significantly enhance the discovery reach in collider experiments. However, the typical machine learning (ML) algorithms employed for this task require fixed length and ordered inputs that break the natural permutation invariance in collision events. To address this, a semi-supervised anomaly detection tool is presented that takes a variable number of particle-level inputs and leverages a signal model to encode this information into a permutation invariant, event-level representation via supervised training with a Particle Flow Network (PFN). Data events are then encoded into this representation and given as input to an autoencoder for unsupervised ANomaly deTEction on particLe flOw latent sPacE (ANTELOPE), classifying anomalous events based on a low-level and permutation invariant input modeling. Performance of the ANTELOPE architecture is evaluated on simulated samples of hadronic processes in a high energy collider experiment, showing good capability to distinguish disparate models of new physics.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

A Methodology to Evaluate the Grid Reliability Impact of Oscillations Induced by Large Loads

The rapid growth of hyperscale AI data centers is bringing renewed attention to the reliability risk that sustained forced oscillations pose to bulk power systems, with cyclic computational workloads emerging as a new forcing source. Unlike the broadband, stochastic disturbances from traditional industrial loads such as arc furnaces, AI training and inference facilities can inject large active power swings concentrated at specific frequencies over extended durations - characteristics that existing grid planning practices do not account for. While the North American Electric Reliability Corporation (NERC) has recognized this gap and called for system-level studies of large load interconnections, no standardized methodology exists to screen, simulate, and quantify these risks at the planning stage. This report presents the Risk Assessment Tool for Large Load-induced Events (RATLLE), a Python-based, publicly available script suite developed at the Pacific Northwest National Laboratory to evaluate bulk power system reliability risks from data center-induced oscillations. RATLLE implements a three-module workflow: a screening module that identifies vulnerable interconnection locations and excitable system modes; a simulation module that models cyclic data center load behavior using a commercial positive sequence simulation platform; and an analysis module that computes risk metrics and generates interactive visualization dashboards. The risk metrics, formulated around simulation observables, map oscillation impacts to a three-stage severity scale spanning latent equipment fatigue through imminent cascading failure. The methodology is demonstrated on two Western Electricity Coordinating Council (WECC) system models: a publicly available 240-bus reduced representation and a detailed 2031 Heavy Winter planning case. Case studies illustrate that even modest 50 MW forced oscillations at resonant frequencies can produce wide-area power swings, N-1 security constraint violations, and cascading generator trips through protection actions - outcomes that would not occur under normal operating conditions without oscillations present. The results underscore the need for standardized oscillation impact assessment in large load interconnection studies and provide a reproducible, extensible framework for utilities to adopt or customize within their existing planning workflows.

Biswas, Shuchismita↗

NASA POWER: Providing Analysis-Ready, Cloud-Optimized Data for AI /ML Training and Applications in Earth Science

As global demand for sustainable development grows, the integration of Earth Observation (EO) data into decision making frameworks has become a primary objective for the scientific community. The NASA Prediction of Worldwide Energy Resources (POWER) project serves as a bridge between NASA EO data and the specialized needs of the renewable energy, sustainable infrastructure and agroclimatology communities. In this poster presentation we will present an overview of POWER data products and services along with its use in diverse research to decision-making workflows. By providing over 40 years of high-resolution historical, hourly and daily solar and meteorological data, POWER transforms satellite observations and global model reanalysis into actionable, Analysis-Ready Dataset (ARD). Currently, the project delivers over 250 industry-friendly parameters to the users from different NASA datasets like CERES SYN1Deg, MERRA-2, and IMERG alongside downscaled CMIP6 climate model data, fulfilling over 16 million requests from 50,000 unique users monthly. To ensure data quality and traceability, these parameters are rigorously validated against the ground-based observations from the Baseline Surface Radiation Network (BSRN) and the Global Surface Summary of the Day (GSOD) – these results will be discussed in the presentation. A newly introduced web-based PaRameter Uncertainty ViEwer (PRUVE) tool will be presented that provides an online validation platform to the users that benchmarks satellite-based and assimilation data products against these surface measurements. To reduce technical barriers to data adoption, POWER data is accessible through RESTful APIs, ESRI ArcGIS Image Services, a web-based Data Access Viewer tool, allowing users to visualize, validate and apply the dataset. For efficient data delivery POWER data is cloud-optimized into Zarr datastore accessible through NASA managed Amazon S3 ensures high-performance allowing users to integrate EO directly into operational pipelines. These customized services will be presented. Use cases from application will be presented from the energy sector - such as for design of generation systems, performance monitoring of solar power plants, in infrastructure sector- optimizing building energy efficiency and thermal comfort, in agriculture – such as driving crop simulation and yield forecasting models to enable climate resilient farming. Furthermore, the shift toward machine learning (ML) in EO research that has positioned POWER as a key provider for training datasets which will be discussed. Use-cases will be presented to showcase how NASA data is enabling the development of predictive tools for climate variability and resource management. The poster will present POWER’s future plans including technology development to enhance data traceability and reproducibility and improving I/O performance to support the rapid integration of new EO products, ensuring that POWER remains a robust scalable backend for the evolving landscape of AI-driven Earth Science. Additionally, POWER is developing an AI Agent and an MCP-Server to enable industry AI-Agentic workflows.

Neha Khadka↗

Modeling Microgravity Induced Fluid Redistribution Autoregulatory and Hydrostatic Enhancements

Space flight induces a marked cephalad (headward) redistribution of blood and interstitial fluid potentially resulting in a loss of venous tone and reduction in heart muscle efficiency upon introduction into the microgravity environment. Using various types of computational models, we are investigating how this fluid redistribution may induce intracranial pressure changes, relevant to reported reductions in astronaut visual acuity, part of the Visual Impairment and Intracranial Pressure (VIIP) syndrome. Methods: We utilize a lumped parameter cardiovascular system (CVS) model, augmented by compartments comprising the cerebral spinal fluid (CSF) space, as the primary tool to describe how microgravity, and the associated lack of hydrostatic gradient, impacts fluid redistribution. Models of ocular fluid pressures and biomechanics then accept the output of the above model as boundary condition input to allow more detailed, local analysis (see IWS Abstract by Ethier et al.). Recently, we enhanced the capabilities our previously reported CVS model through the implementation of robust autoregulatory mechanisms and a more fundamental approach to the implementation of hydrostatic mechanisms. Modifying the approach of Blanco et al., we implemented auto-regulation in a quasi-static manner, as an averaged effect across the span of one heartbeat. This approach reduced the higher frequency perturbations from the regulatory mechanism and was intended to allow longer simulation times (days) than models that implement within-beat regulatory mechanisms (minutes). A more fundamental approach to hydrostatics was implemented by a quasi-1D approach, in which compartment descriptions include compartment length, orientation and relative position, allowed for modeling of body orientation, relative body positioning and, in the future, alternative gravity environments. At this time the inclusion of hydrostatic mechanisms supplies additional capabilities to train and validate the CVS model with terrestrial data. Results and Conclusions: With the implementation of auto-regulation and hydrostatic modeling capabilities, the model performs as expected in the maintaining the CA (Central Artery) compartment pressure when simulating orientations ranging from supine to standing. The model appears to generally overpredict heart rate and thus cardiac output, possibly indicating sensitivity to the nominal heart rate, which is used as an initial set point of the regulation mechanisms. Despite this sensitivity, the model performs consistently for many hours of simulation time, indicating the success of our quasi-static implementation approach.

biomechanics↗

Fatigue Analysis of Notched Laminates: A Time-Efficient Macro-Mechanical Approach

A coupled transversely isotropic deformation and damage fatigue model is implemented within the finite element method and was utilized along with a static progressive damage model to predict the fatigue life, stiffness degradation as a function of number of cycles, and post-fatigue tension and compression response of notched, multidirectional laminates. Initially, the material parameters for the fatigue model were obtained utilizing micromechanics simulations and the provided [0], [90] and [plus or minus 45] experimental composite laminate S-N (stress-cycle) data. Within the fatigue damage model, the transverse and shear properties of the plies were degraded with an isotropic scalar damage variable. The damage in the longitudinal (fiber) ply direction was suppressed, and only the strength of the fiber was degraded as a function of fatigue cycles. A maximum strain criterion was used to capture the failure in each element, and once this criterion was satisfied, the longitudinal stiffness of the element was decreased by a factor of 10 (sup 4). The resulting, degraded properties were then used to calculate the new stress state. This procedure was repeated until final failure of the composite laminate was achieved or a specified number of cycles reached. For post-fatigue tension and compression behavior, four internal state variables were used to control the damage and failure. The predictive capability of the above-mentioned approach was assessed by performing blind predictions of the notched multidirectional IM7/977-3 composite laminates response under fatigue and post-fatigue tensile and compressive loading, followed by a recalibration phase. Although three different multidirectional laminates were analyzed in the course of this study, only detailed results (i.e., stiffness degradation and post-fatigue stress-train curves as well as damage evolution states for a single laminate ([30/60/90/minus 30/minus 60] (sub 2s)) are discussed in detail here.

Composite Fatigue analysis↗

MLSPICE: Machine Learning based SPICE Modeling Platform for Power Magnetics

Electrical power converters are critical to a wide range of applications ranging from renewable integration to transportation electrification, and can be a key factor determining the size, weight, and efficiency of energy conversion systems. Magnetic components are typically the largest and least efficient components in power electronics. While there have been major strides in the modeling and analysis of power semiconductor devices and circuit simulations, the necessary advances in the design of power magnetics have lagged. In this project, we have transformed the modeling and design of power magnetics with machine learning enabled methods and catalyze simultaneous disruptive improvements for ML-based power electronics design tools. A fully automated open-source machine learning based magnetics modeling platform – the MagNet project - with innovations in full stack have been developed to greatly accelerate the design process and provide new insights to magnetic material and geometry design. The ARPA-E funded MagNet platform contains three major building blocks: 1) a ML-Integrated Data Acquisition System (MIDAS): a highly automated data acquisition testbed which is capable of measuring a large number of magnetic cores with a wide range of electrical circuit excitations; 2) a ML-integrated Core Loss Model (MICLM): a machine-learning trained modeling method for modeling the core loss and saturation effects of magnetic materials for arbitrary excitation waveforms; 3) ML-guided Magnetics SPICE Simulation Tool (PMSPICE): a fully integrated CAD tool which can simulate the magnetics in SPICE. It can help the designers to quickly model the linear and non-linear characteristics of magnetic components and evaluate their behavior in SPICE simulations. The developed MagNet system has fully demonstrated the proposed performance target and has been open sourced to the entire power electronics community to advance the modeling and design of power magnetics from many different angles.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Applications of Artificial Neural Networks in Structural Engineering with Emphasis on Continuum Models

The use of continuum models for the analysis of discrete built-up complex aerospace structures is an attractive idea especially at the conceptual and preliminary design stages. But the diversity of available continuum models and hard-to-use qualities of these models have prevented them from finding wide applications. In this regard, Artificial Neural Networks (ANN or NN) may have a great potential as these networks are universal approximators that can realize any continuous mapping, and can provide general mechanisms for building models from data whose input-output relationship can be highly nonlinear. The ultimate aim of the present work is to be able to build high fidelity continuum models for complex aerospace structures using the ANN. As a first step, the concepts and features of ANN are familiarized through the MATLAB NN Toolbox by simulating some representative mapping examples, including some problems in structural engineering. Then some further aspects and lessons learned about the NN training are discussed, including the performances of Feed-Forward and Radial Basis Function NN when dealing with noise-polluted data and the technique of cross-validation. Finally, as an example of using NN in continuum models, a lattice structure with repeating cells is represented by a continuum beam whose properties are provided by neural networks.

Kapania, Rakesh K.↗

Mission Assurance Modeling and Simulation: A Cyber Security Roadmap

This paper proposes a cyber security modeling and simulation roadmap to enhance mission assurance governance and establish risk reduction processes within constrained budgets. The term mission assurance stems from risk management work by Carnegie Mellon's Software Engineering Institute in the late 19905. By 2010, the Defense Information Systems Agency revised its cyber strategy and established the Program Executive Officer-Mission Assurance. This highlights a shift from simply protecting data to balancing risk and begins a necessary dialogue to establish a cyber security roadmap. The Military Operations Research Society has recommended a cyber community of practice, recognizing there are too few professionals having both cyber and analytic experience. The authors characterize the limited body of knowledge in this symbiotic relationship. This paper identifies operational and research requirements for mission assurance M&S supporting defense and homeland security. M&S techniques are needed for enterprise oversight of cyber investments, test and evaluation, policy, training, and analysis.

Gendron, Gerald↗

Random forest prediction of crystal structure from electron diffraction patterns incorporating multiple scattering

Diffraction is the most common method to solve for unknown or partially known crystal structures. However, it remains a challenge to determine the crystal structure of a new material that may have nanoscale size or heterogeneities. Here, in this study, we train an architecture of hierarchical random forest models capable of predicting the crystal system, space group, and lattice parameters from one or more unknown two-dimensional electron diffraction patterns. Our initial model correctly identifies the crystal system of a simulated electron diffraction pattern from a 20-nm-thick specimen of arbitrary orientation 67% of the time. We achieve a topline accuracy of 79% when aggregating predictions from ten patterns of the same material but different zone axes. The space group and lattice predictions range from 70% to 90% accuracy and median errors of 0.01-0.5Å, respectively, for cubic, hexagonal, trigonal, and tetragonal crystal systems while being less reliable on orthorhombic and monoclinic systems. We apply this architecture to a four-dimensional scanning transmission electron microscopy scan of gold nanoparticles, where it accurately predicts the crystal structure and lattice constants. These random forest models can be used to significantly accelerate the analysis of electron diffraction patterns, particularly in the case of unknown crystal structures. Additionally, due to the speed of inference, these models could be integrated into live transmission electron microscopy experiments, allowing real-Time labeling of a specimen.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Equivalent Skin Analysis of Wing Structures Using Neural Networks

An efficient method of modeling trapezoidal built-up wing structures is developed by coupling. in an indirect way, an Equivalent Plate Analysis (EPA) with Neural Networks (NN). Being assumed to behave like a Mindlin-plate, the wing is solved using the Ritz method with Legendre polynomials employed as the trial functions. This analysis method can be made more efficient by avoiding most of the computational effort spent on calculating contributions to the stiffness and mass matrices from each spar and rib. This is accomplished by replacing the wing inner-structure with an "equivalent" material that combines to the skin and whose properties are simulated by neural networks. The constitutive matrix, which relates the stress vector to the strain vector, and the density of the equivalent material are obtained by enforcing mass and stiffness matrix equities with rec,ard to the EPA in a least-square sense. Neural networks for the material properties are trained in terms of the design variables of the wing structure. Examples show that the present method, which can be called an Equivalent Skin Analysis (ESA) of the wing structure, is more efficient than the EPA and still fairly good results can be obtained. The present ESA is very promising to be used at the early stages of wing structure design.

Liu, Youhua↗

Derivation of Capabilities and Resources for Treating Medical Conditions in Deep Space

BACKGROUND: Medical care in spaceflight requires the adaptation of terrestrial standards to the constraints of the space environment. However, there is often conflict between the ideal resources required for treatment and diagnosis of a medical condition, and the constraints on their mass, volume, data needs, etc. This optimization of trades between medical risk and resources will be a significant challenge for deep space medical system design. METHODS: A team of physicians with a broad range of expertise reviewed the 120 medical conditions on the condition list for NASA’s Informing Mission Planning via analysis of Complex Tradespaces Medical Database (IMPACT-MD). Each team member was assigned a subset of conditions based on their experience and training. The assigned physician generated a proposed list of capabilities, definitions, and resources required to treat each condition based on terrestrial practice guidelines, medical literature, and subject matter expertise. Additional specialists were consulted for conditions where expertise was not present within the main group. The proposed list was then reviewed by the broader team and modified as needed to achieve consensus. Each capability and resource was then assigned parameters to define quantity required per medical event, necessity, training level required, and primacy order of any alternative resources. These capabilities and resources were placed into condition specific tables and delivered to a team of engineers who added mass and volume data for each specific resource and converted the table into a database for use as input to a computational model to simulate spaceflight (IMPACT) DISCUSSION: This process ensures that a minimum of three subject matter experts review and agree upon the scope of practice, medical diagnostic tools, and treatment modalities that would be necessary to address emergent and non-emergent conditions that may arise during spaceflight to inform requirements during the vehicle design phase. The method is scalable to any design reference mission and permits modification of the existing database as information, conditions or experience are added. By including specialists, generalists, and those with subject matter expertise in the spaceflight environment on the team, we ensure that the included capabilities represent a realistic and actionable foundation for planning deep space missions.

D R Levin↗

Online thermal profile prediction for large format additive manufacturing: A hybrid CNN-LSTM based approach

Large format additive manufacturing (LFAM) is an advanced 3D printing technique that efficiently fabricates large-scale components through a layer-by-layer extrusion and deposition process. Accurate surface layer temperature monitoring is essential to prevent manufacturing failures and ensure final product quality. Traditional physics-based offline approaches for simulating thermal behavior are often inefficient and complex, posing challenges on real-time, in-situ monitoring. Here, to address this, we propose a data-driven hybrid CNN-LSTM model to predict sequential thermal images of arbitrary length using real-time infrared thermal imaging. In this approach, a Convolutional Neural Networks (CNN) is trained offline to capture spatial features, reduce dimensional complexity, and enhance time efficiency, while a stacked Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) is applied online to capture temporal information for improved prediction of future thermal behavior in subsequent printing layers. Model performance is evaluated using MSE, SSIM, and PSNR metrics and is benchmarked against stacked LSTM and convolutional LSTM models, demonstrating superior accuracy and applicability. Additionally, to mitigate noise from moving extruders and gantry backgrounds in thermal images, a fine-tuned semantic segmentation model is implemented offline to extract printing geometry, enabling precise temperature tracking along the tool path for further thermal analysis. The frameworks developed in this study significantly advance temperature monitoring, thermal analysis, and in-situ manufacturing control for LFAM, bridging the gap between theoretical modeling and practical application.

Geometry extraction↗

Cyote-attack Chain Estimator

Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application Overview The Attack Chain Estimator (ACE) Application is a sophisticated tool designed for the ingestion, classification, sequencing, and enrichment of cybersecurity threat reports. This application leverages advanced machine learning models and extensive historical data to provide comprehensive insights into cyber threats, specifically targeting Industrial Control Systems (ICS). Purpose The primary functions of the ACE Application include: Ingestion of Cybersecurity Threat Reporting: Capable of ingesting text-based threat reports in markdown or text file format. Supports ingestion of structured data from other sources in STIX/JSON format. Classification of Report’s Text-Based Events: Utilizes a DeBERTa classifier, specifically trained on cybersecurity data, to map the events to MITRE ATT&CK for ICS Tactics and Techniques. Classification is performed using multiple Jupyter notebooks and machine learning workflows hosted as FastAPI microservices: regex_data deberta_base_35_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb hft_regex_classifier_mlflow.ipynb param_train_hft_classifier_mlflow.ipynb regex_tactic_tech.ipynb Ordering of Tactics, Techniques, and Observable Events: Sequences the identified tactics, techniques, and events to form a coherent attack chain. Enrichment with Historical Attack Chain Details: Enhances the attack chain with details from historical attacks using a Markov model developed from CyOTE Precursor Analysis Report data. The Markov model is available as a FastAPI endpoint for seamless integration. Enrichment with Adversary Emulation Capabilities Data: Integrates adversary emulation capabilities data using MITRE Caldera for OT adversary abilities UUIDs. Export of Output Files: Provides options to export the enriched attack chain in JSON or CSV formats. Routing of Output to Other Applications: Facilitates routing of output to various platforms and applications, including: Threat Intelligence Platforms COREII Scout for Threat Intelligence Analysis COREII Modeling and Simulation for Adversary Emulation Technical Description The ACE Application is an advanced cybersecurity tool designed to provide detailed threat analysis and sequence generation. It is built on a robust architecture that integrates natural language processing, machine learning, and historical data modeling. Key Components: Data Ingestion Module: Handles the input of threat reports and data from various formats, ensuring flexibility in data sources. Classification Engine: Employs DeBERTa-based classifiers hosted as FastAPI microservices to analyze and classify threat report events in accordance with the MITRE ATT&CK framework for ICS. Sequence Generator: Orders the classified events into a logical attack chain, providing clear insight into the sequence of tactics and techniques used in the threat. Enrichment Engine: Integrates historical data and adversary emulation capabilities to enhance the attack chain with valuable context and additional details. The historical data enrichment is powered by a Markov model, which is available as a FastAPI endpoint. Export and Routing Module: Facilitates the export of the enriched attack chain in multiple formats and routes the output to designated applications for further analysis or emulation.

Paul, Tony [Idaho National Laboratory (INL), Idaho↗

Implications of pond reliability on the techno-economic and life cycle environmental impacts of algal biofuels

Despite extensive research on algal bioproducts, there is limited understanding of how pond contamination affects their economics and environmental impacts. This work compared the costs and environmental impacts of algal biofuels across different pond failure scenarios. Pond failure was simulated by a reliability model based on pond mean-time-to-failure (MTTF). The reliability model was integrated with a process model to analyze the impacts of pond failure on the operations of algal farms and biorefineries. Process model outputs were used for techno-economic analysis and life cycle assessment to determine the minimum fuel selling price (MFSP), global warming potential (GWP), and freshwater consumption impacts of algal biofuels for five MTTF scenarios of 20, 54, 80,120, and 350 days, assuming an average mean-time-to-reset of 7 days. Results show that higher MTTFs reduce the cost and environmental impact of algal biofuels, but with diminishing returns. The average MFSPs for the 20-day, 54-day, and 350-day MTTF scenarios were $\$3.52$, $\$2.54$, and $\$2.10$ per liter of gasoline equivalent, respectively. The GWP for the same scenarios were 131, 96, and 83 g CO 2eq MJ –1 , respectively. This study highlights the significant impact of larger seed trains, required under low MTTFs, on the costs and greenhouse gas emissions of algal biofuels. Moreover, the work shows that algal biofuels fail to be cost-competitive with conventional fuels, even when productivities are increased from 17 to 35 g m –2 d –1 . Furthermore, this work is the first to explore the implications of pond failure on the sustainability of algal biofuels and provides valuable insights to algae farmers on how to reduce the costs and financial risks of algal cultivation through process design and pond management strategies.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Status of SAS4A/SASSYS-1 Software Development and Application (FY2024)

SAS4A/SASSYS-1 is a simulation tool used to perform deterministic analysis of anticipated events as well as design basis and beyond design basis accidents for advanced liquid-metal-cooled nuclear reactors. With its origin as SAS1A in the late 1960s, the SAS series of codes has been under continuous use and development for over fifty years. It has been identified as a critical element of safety analysis capabilities for the U.S. Department of Energy and is utilized within industry to perform the transient safety analyses required to support the licensing of Liquid Metal-cooled Fast Reactors (LMFRs). This report summarizes the code development and update activities carried out during FY2024. In FY2024, programmatic activities focused on key improvements to software useability, such as enhanced user interfaces for reactivity feedback modeling, improvements in stability/useability of the Code Manual, and improvements to the acceptance testing infrastructure, including automation of acceptance testing and generation of the Acceptance Testing Report. To support end user applications, an open training was held, a semi-public forum was maintained, and a practical benchmarking and validation matrix was developed which allowed limitations of existing testing capabilities to be assessed. The existing fuel models were also enhanced with improved modeling capabilities and testing for the oxide and annular fuel models.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗