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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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NASA NTRS2008

Civil Service Workforce Market Supply and the Effect on the Cost Estimating Relationships (CERs) that may effect the Productivity Factors for Future NASA Missions

The upcoming retirement of the Baby Boomers on the horizon will leave a performance gap between younger generation (the future NASA decision makers) and the gray beards. This paper will reflect on the average age of workforce across NASA Centers, the Aerospace Industry and other Government Agencies, like DoD. This papers will dig into Productivity and Realization Factors and how they get applied to bimonthly (payroll data) for true FTE calculations that could be used at each of the NASA Centers and other business systems that are on the forefront in being implemented. This paper offers some comparative costs solutions, from simple - full time equivalent (FTE) cost estimating relationships CERs, to complex - CERs for monthly time-phasing activities for small research projects that start and get completed within a government fiscal year. This paper will present the results of a parametric study investigating the cost-effectiveness of different alternatives performance based cost estimating relationships (CERs) and how they get applied into the Center s forward pricing rate proposals (FPRP). True CERs based on the relationship of a younger aged workforce will have some effects on labor rates used in both commercial cost models and internal home-grown cost models which may impact the productivity factors for future NASA missions.

Sterk, Steve↗
NASA NTRS2010

Analysis of Different Cost Functions in the Geosect Airspace Partitioning Tool

A new cost function representing air traffic controller workload is implemented in the Geosect airspace partitioning tool. Geosect currently uses a combination of aircraft count and dwell time to select optimal airspace partitions that balance controller workload. This is referred to as the aircraft count/dwell time hybrid cost function. The new cost function is based on Simplified Dynamic Density, a measure of different aspects of air traffic controller workload. Three sectorizations are compared. These are the current sectorization, Geosect's sectorization based on the aircraft count/dwell time hybrid cost function, and Geosect s sectorization based on the Simplified Dynamic Density cost function. Each sectorization is evaluated for maximum and average workload along with workload balance using the Simplified Dynamic Density as the workload measure. In addition, the Airspace Concept Evaluation System, a nationwide air traffic simulator, is used to determine the capacity and delay incurred by each sectorization. The sectorization resulting from the Simplified Dynamic Density cost function had a lower maximum workload measure than the other sectorizations, and the sectorization based on the combination of aircraft count and dwell time did a better job of balancing workload and balancing capacity. However, the current sectorization had the lowest average workload, highest sector capacity, and the least system delay.

Wong, Gregory L.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Preliminary Multi-Variable Cost Model for Space Telescopes

Parametric cost models are routinely used to plan missions, compare concepts and justify technology investments. This paper reviews the methodology used to develop space telescope cost models; summarizes recently published single variable models; and presents preliminary results for two and three variable cost models. Some of the findings are that increasing mass reduces cost; it costs less per square meter of collecting aperture to build a large telescope than a small telescope; and technology development as a function of time reduces cost at the rate of 50% per 17 years.

Stahl, H. Philip↗
NASA NTRS2011

Products from NASA's In-Space Propulsion Technology Program Applicable to Low-Cost Planetary Missions

Since September 2001 NASA s In-Space Propulsion Technology (ISPT) program has been developing technologies for lowering the cost of planetary science missions. Recently completed is the high-temperature Advanced Material Bipropellant Rocket (AMBR) engine providing higher performance for lower cost. Two other cost saving technologies nearing completion are the NEXT ion thruster and the Aerocapture technology project. Also under development are several technologies for low cost sample return missions. These include a low cost Hall effect thruster (HIVHAC) which will be completed in 2011, light weight propellant tanks, and a Multi-Mission Earth Entry Vehicle (MMEEV). This paper will discuss the status of the technology development, the cost savings or performance benefits, and applicability of these in-space propulsion technologies to NASA s future Discovery, and New Frontiers missions, as well as their relevance for sample return missions.

Anderson, David J.↗
NASA NTRS2003

Software Estimates Costs of Testing Rocket Engines

Simulation-Based Cost Model (SiCM), a discrete event simulation developed in Extend , simulates pertinent aspects of the testing of rocket propulsion test articles for the purpose of estimating the costs of such testing during time intervals specified by its users. A user enters input data for control of simulations; information on the nature of, and activity in, a given testing project; and information on resources. Simulation objects are created on the basis of this input. Costs of the engineering-design, construction, and testing phases of a given project are estimated from numbers and labor rates of engineers and technicians employed in each phase, the duration of each phase; costs of materials used in each phase; and, for the testing phase, the rate of maintenance of the testing facility. The three main outputs of SiCM are (1) a curve, updated at each iteration of the simulation, that shows overall expenditures vs. time during the interval specified by the user; (2) a histogram of the total costs from all iterations of the simulation; and (3) table displaying means and variances of cumulative costs for each phase from all iterations. Other outputs include spending curves for each phase.

Smith, C. L.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Integrating Efficiency of Industry Processes and Practices Alongside Technology Effectiveness in Space Transportation Cost Modeling and Analysis

This paper presents past and current work in dealing with indirect industry and NASA costs when providing cost estimation or analysis for NASA projects and programs. Indirect costs, when defined as those costs in a project removed from the actual hardware or software hands-on labor; makes up most of the costs of today's complex large scale NASA space/industry projects. This appears to be the case across phases from research into development into production and into the operation of the system. Space transportation is the case of interest here. Modeling and cost estimation as a process rather than a product will be emphasized. Analysis as a series of belief systems in play among decision makers and decision factors will also be emphasized to provide context.

Zapata, Edgar↗
NASA NTRS2013

Assessing the Benefits of NASA Category 3, Low Cost Class C/D Missions

Category 3, Class C/D missions have the benefit of delivering worthwhile science at minimal cost which is increasingly important in NASA's constrained budget environment. Although higher cost Category 1 and 2 missions are necessary to achieve NASA's science objectives, Category 3 missions are shown to be an effective way to provide significant science return at a low cost. Category 3 missions, however, are often reviewed the same as the more risk averse Category 1 and 2 missions. Acknowledging that reviews are not the only aspect of a total engineering effort, reviews are still a significant concern for NASA programs. This can unnecessarily increase the cost and schedule of Category 3 missions. This paper quantifies the benefit and performance of Category 3 missions by looking at the cost vs. capability relative to Category 1 and 2 missions. Lessons learned from successful organizations that develop low cost Category 3, Class C/D missions are also investigated to help provide the basis for suggestions to streamline the review of NASA Category 3 missions.

Bitten, Robert E.↗
NASA NTRS2010

Hypergolic Propellant Destruction Evaluation Cost Benefit Analysis

At space vehicle launch sites such as Vandenberg Air Force Base (VAFB), Cape Canaveral Air Force Station (CCAFS) and Kennedy Space Center (KSC), toxic vapors and hazardous liquid wastes result from the handling of commodities (hypergolic fuels and oxidizers), most notably from transfer operations where fuel and oxidizer are transferred from bulk storage tanks or transfer tankers to space launch vehicles. During commodity transfer at CCAFS and KSC, wet chemical scrubbers (typically containing four scrubbing towers) are used to neutralize fuel saturated vapors from vent systems on tanks and tanker trailers. For fuel vapors, a citric acid solution is used to scrub out most of the hydrazine. Operation of both the hypergolic fuel and oxidizer vapor scrubbers generates waste scrubber liquor. Currently, scrubber liquor from the fuel vapor scrubber is considered non-hazardous. The scrubber liquor is defined as spent citric acid scrubber solution; the solution contains complexed hydrazine I methylhydrazine and is used to neutralize nonspecification hypergolic fuel generated by CCAFS and KSC. This project is a collaborative effort between Air Force Space Command (AFSPC), Space and Missile Center (SMC), the CCAFS, and National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) to evaluate microwave destruction technology for the treatment of non-specification hypergolic fuel generated at CCAFS and KSC. The project will capitalize on knowledge gained from microwave treatment work being accomplished by AFSPC and SMC at V AFB. This report focuses on the costs associated with the current non-specification hypergolic fuel neutralization process (Section 2.0) as well as the estimated costs of operating a mobile microwave unit to treat non-specification hypergolic fuel (Section 3.0), and compares the costs for each (Section 4.0).The purpose of this document is to assess the costs associated with waste hypergolic fuel. This document will report the costs associated with the current fuel neutralization process and also examine the costs of an alternative technology, microwave destruction of waste hypergolic fuel. The microwave destruction system is being designed as a mobile unit to treat non-specification hypergolic fuel at CCAFS and KSC.

Kessel, Kurt↗
NASA NTRS2014

Human Reliability and the Cost of Doing Business

Most businesses recognize that people will make mistakes and assume errors are just part of the cost of doing business, but does it need to be? Companies with high risk, or major consequences, should consider the effect of human error. In a variety of industries, Human Errors have caused costly failures and workplace injuries. These have included: airline mishaps, medical malpractice, administration of medication and major oil spills have all been blamed on human error. A technique to mitigate or even eliminate some of these costly human errors is the use of Human Reliability Analysis (HRA). Various methodologies are available to perform Human Reliability Assessments that range from identifying the most likely areas for concern to detailed assessments with human error failure probabilities calculated. Which methodology to use would be based on a variety of factors that would include: 1) how people react and act in different industries, and differing expectations based on industries standards, 2) factors that influence how the human errors could occur such as tasks, tools, environment, workplace, support, training and procedure, 3) type and availability of data and 4) how the industry views risk & reliability influences ( types of emergencies, contingencies and routine tasks versus cost based concerns). The Human Reliability Assessments should be the first step to reduce, mitigate or eliminate the costly mistakes or catastrophic failures. Using Human Reliability techniques to identify and classify human error risks allows a company more opportunities to mitigate or eliminate these risks and prevent costly failures.

DeMott, Diana↗
NASA NTRS2014

Additive Manufacturing of Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion Components

NASA is currently developing Additive Manufacturing (AM) technologies and design tools aimed at reducing the costs and manufacturing time of regeneratively cooled rocket engine components. These Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion (LCUSP) tasks are funded through NASA's Game Changing Development Program in the Space Technology Mission Directorate. The LCUSP project will develop a copper alloy additive manufacturing design process and develop and optimize the Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) manufacturing process to direct deposit a nickel alloy structural jacket and manifolds onto an SLM manufactured GRCop chamber and Ni-alloy nozzle. In order to develop these processes, the project will characterize both the microstructural and mechanical properties of the SLMproduced GRCop-84, and will explore and document novel design techniques specific to AM combustion devices components. These manufacturing technologies will be used to build a 25K-class regenerative chamber and nozzle (to be used with tested DMLS injectors) that will be tested individually and as a system in hot fire tests to demonstrate the applicability of the technologies. These tasks are expected to bring costs and manufacturing time down as spacecraft propulsion systems typically comprise more than 70% of the total vehicle cost and account for a significant portion of the development schedule. Additionally, high pressure/high temperature combustion chambers and nozzles must be regeneratively cooled to survive their operating environment, causing their design to be time consuming and costly to build. LCUSP presents an opportunity to develop and demonstrate a process that can infuse these technologies into industry, build competition, and drive down costs of future engines.

Protz, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2013

Spacecraft Complexity Subfactors and Implications on Future Cost Growth

During the last ten years the Jet Propulsion Laboratory has used a set of cost-risk subfactors to independently estimate the magnitude of development risks that may not be covered in the high level cost models employed during early concept development. Within the last several years the Laboratory has also developed a scale of Concept Maturity Levels with associated criteria to quantitatively assess a concept's maturity. This latter effort has been helpful in determining whether a concept is mature enough for accurate costing but it does not provide any quantitative estimate of cost risk. Unfortunately today's missions are significantly more complex than when the original cost-risk subfactors were first formulated. Risks associated with complex missions are not being adequately evaluated and future cost growth is being underestimated. The risk subfactor process needed to be updated.

Mission Design↗
NASA NTRS2015

Cost-Effective Icy Bodies Exploration using Small Satellite Missions

It has long been known that Saturn's moon Enceladus is expelling water-rich plumes into space, providing passing spacecraft with a window into what is hidden underneath its frozen crust. Recent discoveries indicate that similar events could also occur on other bodies in the solar system, such as Jupiter's moon Europa and the dwarf planet Ceres in the asteroid belt. These plumes provide a possible giant leap forward in the search for organics and assessing habitability beyond Earth, stepping stones toward the long-term goal of finding extraterrestrial life. The United States Congress recently requested mission designs to Europa, to fit within a cost cap of $1B, much less than previous mission designs' estimates. Here, innovative cost-effective small spacecraft designs for the deep-space exploration of these icy worlds, using new and emerging enabling technologies, and how to explore the outer solar system on a budget below the cost horizon of a flagship mission, are investigated. Science requirements, instruments selection, rendezvous trajectories, and spacecraft designs are some topics detailed. The mission concepts revolve around a comparably small-sized and low-cost Plume Chaser spacecraft, instrumented to characterize the vapor constituents encountered on its trajectory. In the event that a plume is not encountered, an ejecta plume can be artificially created by a companion spacecraft, the Plume Maker, on the target body at a location timed with the passage of the Plume Chaser spacecraft. Especially in the case of Ceres, such a mission could be a great complimentary mission to Dawn, as well as a possible future Europa Clipper mission. The comparably small volume of the spacecraft enables a launch to GTO as a secondary payload, providing multiple launch opportunities per year. Plume Maker's design is nearly identical to the Plume Chaser, and fits within the constraints for a secondary payload launch. The cost-effectiveness of small spacecraft missions enables the exploration of multiple solar system bodies in reasonable timeframes despite budgetary constraints, with only minor adaptations. The work presented here is a summary of concepts targeting icy bodies, such as Europa and Ceres, which have been developed over the last year at NASA Ames Research Center's Mission Design Division. The platforms detailed in this work are also applicable to the cost-effective exploration of many other small icy bodies in the solar system.

Mission Design↗
NASA NTRS2015

Small Habitat Commonality Reduces Cost for Human Mars Missions

Most view the Apollo Program as expensive. It was. But, a human mission to Mars will be orders of magnitude more difficult and costly. Recently, NASA's Evolvable Mars Campaign (EMC) mapped out a step-wise approach for exploring Mars and the Mars-moon system. It is early in the planning process but because approximately 80% of the total life cycle cost is committed during preliminary design, there is an effort to emphasize cost reduction methods up front. Amongst the options, commonality across small habitat elements shows promise for consolidating the high bow-wave costs of Design, Development, Test and Evaluation (DDT&E) while still accommodating each end-item's functionality. In addition to DDT&E, there are other cost and operations benefits to commonality such as reduced logistics, simplified infrastructure integration and with inter-operability, improved safety and simplified training. These benefits are not without a cost. Some habitats are sub-optimized giving up unique attributes for the benefit of the overall architecture and because the first item sets the course for those to follow, rapidly developing technology may be excluded. The small habitats within the EMC include the pressurized crew cabins for the ascent vehicle,

Griffin, Brand N.↗
NASA NTRS2012

Methods and Costs to Achieve Ultra Reliable Life Support

A published Mars mission is used to explore the methods and costs to achieve ultra reliable life support. The Mars mission and its recycling life support design are described. The life support systems were made triply redundant, implying that each individual system will have fairly good reliability. Ultra reliable life support is needed for Mars and other long, distant missions. Current systems apparently have insufficient reliability. The life cycle cost of the Mars life support system is estimated. Reliability can be increased by improving the intrinsic system reliability, adding spare parts, or by providing technically diverse redundant systems. The costs of these approaches are estimated. Adding spares is least costly but may be defeated by common cause failures. Using two technically diverse systems is effective but doubles the life cycle cost. Achieving ultra reliability is worth its high cost because the penalty for failure is very high.

deep space life support↗
NASA NTRS2014

Latest NASA Instrument Cost Model (NICM): Version VI

The NASA Instrument Cost Model, NICM, is a suite of tools which allow for probabilistic cost estimation of NASA's space-flight instruments at both the system and subsystem level. NICM also includes the ability to perform cost by analogy as well as joint confidence level (JCL) analysis. The latest version of NICM, Version VI, was released in Spring 2014. This paper will focus on the new features released with NICM VI, which include: 1) The NICM-E cost estimating relationship, which is applicable for instruments flying on Explorer-like class missions; 2) The new cluster analysis ability which, alongside the results of the parametric cost estimation for the user's instrument, also provides a visualization of the user's instrument's similarity to previously flown instruments; and 3) includes new cost estimating relationships for in-situ instruments.

Mrozinski, Joe↗
NASA NTRS2016

Additively Manufactured Low Cost Upper Stage Combustion Chamber

Over the past two years NASA's Low Cost Upper Stage Propulsion (LCUSP) project has developed Additive Manufacturing (AM) technologies and design tools aimed at reducing the costs and manufacturing time of regeneratively cooled rocket engine components. High pressure/high temperature combustion chambers and nozzles must be regeneratively cooled to survive their operating environment, causing their design fabrication to be costly and time consuming due to the number of individual steps and different processes required. Under LCUSP, AM technologies in Sintered Laser Melting (SLM) GRCop-84 and Electron Beam Freeform Fabrication (EBF3) Inconel 625 have been significantly advanced, allowing the team to successfully fabricate a 25k-class regenerative chamber. Estimates of the costs and schedule of future builds indicate cost reductions and significant schedule reductions will be enabled by this technology. Characterization of the microstructural and mechanical properties of the SLM-produced GRCop-84, EBF3 Inconel 625 and the interface layer between the two has been performed and indicates the properties will meet the design requirements. The LCUSP chamber is to be tested with a previously demonstrated SLM injector in order to advance the Technology Readiness Level (TRL) and demonstrate the capability of the application of these processes. NASA is advancing these technologies to reduce cost and schedule for future engine applications and commercial needs.

Protz, Christopher↗
NASA NTRS2015

Rule-Based Flight Software Cost Estimation

This paper discusses the fundamental process for the computation of Flight Software (FSW) cost estimates. This process has been incorporated in a rule-based expert system [1] that can be used for Independent Cost Estimates (ICEs), Proposals, and for the validation of Cost Analysis Data Requirements (CADRe) submissions. A high-level directed graph (referred to here as a decision graph) illustrates the steps taken in the production of these estimated costs and serves as a basis of design for the expert system described in this paper. Detailed discussions are subsequently given elaborating upon the methodology, tools, charts, and caveats related to the various nodes of the graph. We present general principles for the estimation of FSW using SEER-SEM as an illustration of these principles when appropriate. Since Source Lines of Code (SLOC) is a major cost driver, a discussion of various SLOC data sources for the preparation of the estimates is given together with an explanation of how contractor SLOC estimates compare with the SLOC estimates used by JPL. Obtaining consistency in code counting will be presented as well as factors used in reconciling SLOC estimates from different code counters. When sufficient data is obtained, a mapping into the JPL Work Breakdown Structure (WBS) from the SEER-SEM output is illustrated. For across the board FSW estimates, as was done for the NASA Discovery Mission proposal estimates performed at JPL, a comparative high-level summary sheet for all missions with the SLOC, data description, brief mission description and the most relevant SEER-SEM parameter values is given to illustrate an encapsulation of the used and calculated data involved in the estimates. The rule-based expert system described provides the user with inputs useful or sufficient to run generic cost estimation programs. This system's incarnation is achieved via the C Language Integrated Production System (CLIPS) and will be addressed at the end of this paper.

computational intelligence↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parametric Cost Analysis of Refueling Options in Cislunar Space

Over the next several years NASA intends to develop and maintain a sustained human presence in cislunar space and on the surface of the Moon. The sustained lunar presence will then serve as a steppingstone for human missions to Mars. To propel the spacecraft taking humans and cargo to and from the lunar surface and to and from Mars will require on the order of hundreds of tons of propellant. Single-use refueling elements (expendable tankers) may be more cost-effective for smaller campaigns, but as the propellant demand grows, so does the potential for a cost benefit from reusable tankers. The cost of two different architectures for delivering propellant to cislunar space was estimated and compared. The first architecture relies on expendable tankers for propellant delivery while the second architecture reuses every element, including launch vehicle stages. The study determined that if the cost of reusing refueling tankers is consistent with the current state of the art, the expendable refueling architecture is more cost effective. However, refinements of the methods used to estimate launch and tanker reuse costs are needed to provide more precise estimates of the breakeven point.

Daniel J Tiffin↗