Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Monte Carlo sampling”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 325 records · Page 18

DSMC Simulations of Hyperthermal Oxygen Beam Exposures

Pulsed sources of hyper-thermal O-atoms are now being extensively used to simulate low-earth orbit (LEO) surface exposure environments. The peak flux of these sources is many orders of magnitude larger than the corresponding LEO flux. Although it is desirable to accelerate the test by using higher fluxes than found in LEO, even commonly used fluxes are large enough to produce multi-collision effects by causing a build-up of gas at the sample surface. In this paper we characterize the physical consequences to the experiment using the direct simulation Monte Carlo (DSMC) method. DSMC allows us to extract the distributions of energy and impact angle for the O-atoms that reach the surface, and to record how strongly the gas build-up at the target assembly deflects flux from downstream instrumentation. By considering a range of source fluxes, we determine the onset conditions and severity of these multi-collision effects. We find that even at common experimental fluxes with a normally incident beam striking a flat surface sample, the energy distribution of incident O-atoms broadens and develops a significant low-energy tail. The angular distributions also broaden significantly. The number of O-atoms that reach downstream instrumentation is decreased by approximately 50%. These simulations will aid in the calibration of ground-based O-atom measurements, and provide a model for the energy and angular distributions of O-atoms that actually impinge on surface samples.

Cline, Jason A.↗

OSIRIS-REx Touch-And-Go (TAG) Navigation Performance

The Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource identification Security Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is a NASA New Frontiers mission launching in 2016 to rendezvous with the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in late 2018. Following an extensive campaign of proximity operations activities to characterize the properties of Bennu and select a suitable sample site, OSIRIES-REx will fly a Touch-And-Go (TAG) trajectory to the asteroid's surface to obtain a regolith sample. The paper summarizes the mission design of the TAG sequence, the propulsive required to achieve the trajectory, and the sequence of events leading up to the TAG event. The paper will summarize the Monte-Carlo simulation of the TAG sequence and present analysis results that demonstrate the ability to conduct the TAG within 25 meters of the selected sample site and +-2 cms of the targeted contact velocity. The paper will describe some of the challenges associated with conducting precision navigation operations and ultimately contacting a very small asteroid.

Spectral↗

OSIRI-REx Touch and Go (TAG) Navigation Performance

The Origins Spectral Interpretation Resource Identification Security Regolith Explorer (OSIRIS-REx) mission is a NASA New Frontiers mission launching in 2016 to rendezvous with the near-Earth asteroid (101955) Bennu in late 2018. Following an extensive campaign of proximity operations activities to characterize the properties of Bennu and select a suitable sample site, OSIRIS-REx will fly a Touch-And-Go (TAG) trajectory to the asteroid's surface to obtain a regolith sample. The paper summarizes the mission design of the TAG sequence, the propulsive maneuvers required to achieve the trajectory, and the sequence of events leading up to the TAG event. The paper also summarizes the Monte-Carlo simulation of the TAG sequence and presents analysis results that demonstrate the ability to conduct the TAG within 25 meters of the selected sample site and 2 cm/s of the targeted contact velocity. The paper describes some of the challenges associated with conducting precision navigation operations and ultimately contacting a very small asteroid.

Security Regolith Explorer↗

Steam generator model design parameter sensitivity study for small modular reactor system

Here, this study focuses on design parameter sensitivity studies pertaining to several Once-Through Steam Generator (OTSG) model cases both with and without a riser using python and advanced risk assessment and optimization tool, i.e. Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory (INL), to support a Small Modular Reactor (SMR) system. The presented Steam Generator (SG) python-based model is a mathematical representation of a steam-generating unit for a Pressurized Water Reactor (PWR)-type SMR system, including fluid flow and heat transfer equations, models, and correlations. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters (e.g., temperature, pressure, mass flow rate) to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system, such as the Heat Transfer Coefficient (HTC), Reynolds number, Nusselt number, and heat transfer performance. Sensitivity studies analyze the degree to which system output and/or desired parameters (e.g., HTC or heat transfer performance) are sensitive to changes in the input parameters. By using RAVEN, detailed design parametric sensitivity studies. Six input parameters—namely, the pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid) of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (i.e., ±1%, ±5% and ±10 % relative changes) for 600 samples. The analysis results give valuable insights into SG system performance, and provide justification for further research and development such as optimized sensor placement, design verification, validation, and optimization.

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

Selection of Sampling and Surrogate Modeling Methods for State-Point Evaluations of an AGN-201M Reactor

Nuclear reactor digital twins (DTs) have been proposed for use as a safeguards technology to efficiently monitor new and novel reactors as they come online. A safeguards DT needs to be capable of detecting misuse and diversion as they occur, requiring physics models to be accurate and efficient. Mathematical surrogate models are capable of achieving the necessary efficiency and can largely maintain the accuracy of higher-order models given a quality training sample. The Multiphysics Object-Oriented Simulation Environment (MOOSE) code framework is specifically equipped to generate training samples and create surrogate models using full-order reactor physics models. Utilizing an operational AGN-201M reactor’s specifications, two surrogate types were trained on samples of variable size, and using Cartesian products, Latin hypercube sampling, and quadrature sampling, each was compared and evaluated on accuracy when compared to a full-order Monte Carlo model. Both surrogate types were able to capture reactivity changes within 0.05 $ of the Monte Carlo model while reducing the computation costs by eight orders of magnitude.

MOOSE↗

Once-Through Steam Generator Model Analysis Using Python and Advanced Optimization Tools (Summer Internship Report)

This study focuses on the parametric analysis of design parameters for a once-through steam generator (OTSG) model, using python and advanced optimization tools to facilitate applications such as the flowing autoclave steam generator (FASG) test cases. Building on previous research involving another OTSG with a different design, this project aims to enhance our understanding of how steam generators (SGs) behave and how their outputs are influenced by changes in design. The reason for this design change is to allow for more precise modeling and optimization of SG performance, to provide a comparative analysis between the two designs, and to set up the model for integration with the FASG test case. The OTSG python-model is a mathematical representation (including fluid flow and heat transfer equations/models/correlations) of a steam-generating unit in a pressurized water reactor-type small modular reactor system. Design studies involve changing the model’s input design parameters to observe the resulting effects on the output of the system. By using advanced optimization tools, such as the Risk Analysis Virtual Environment (RAVEN) developed at Idaho National Laboratory, detailed design parametric studies and model optimization were performed. Six input parameters—pressure, temperature, and mass flow rate for the inlet of the primary-side (hot fluid) and secondary-side (cold fluid), respectively, of the SG—were randomly perturbed via RAVEN’s Monte Carlo Sampler module, using uniform distributions (i.e., ±1%, ±5% and ±10% relative changes) for 600 samples. The analysis provides valuable insights into SG optimization and can be used for sensor placement optimization to effectively monitor and obtain experimental data in other tests.

20 FOSSIL-FUELED POWER PLANTS↗

Development of a Probabilistic Dynamic Synthesis Method for the Analysis of Nondeterministic Structures

Accounting for the statistical geometric and material variability of structures in analysis has been a topic of considerable research for the last 30 years. The determination of quantifiable measures of statistical probability of a desired response variable, such as natural frequency, maximum displacement, or stress, to replace experience-based "safety factors" has been a primary goal of these studies. There are, however, several problems associated with their satisfactory application to realistic structures, such as bladed disks in turbomachinery. These include the accurate definition of the input random variables (rv's), the large size of the finite element models frequently used to simulate these structures, which makes even a single deterministic analysis expensive, and accurate generation of the cumulative distribution function (CDF) necessary to obtain the probability of the desired response variables. The research presented here applies a methodology called probabilistic dynamic synthesis (PDS) to solve these problems. The PDS method uses dynamic characteristics of substructures measured from modal test as the input rv's, rather than "primitive" rv's such as material or geometric uncertainties. These dynamic characteristics, which are the free-free eigenvalues, eigenvectors, and residual flexibility (RF), are readily measured and for many substructures, a reasonable sample set of these measurements can be obtained. The statistics for these rv's accurately account for the entire random character of the substructure. Using the RF method of component mode synthesis, these dynamic characteristics are used to generate reduced-size sample models of the substructures, which are then coupled to form system models. These sample models are used to obtain the CDF of the response variable by either applying Monte Carlo simulation or by generating data points for use in the response surface reliability method, which can perform the probabilistic analysis with an order of magnitude less computational effort. Both free- and forced-response analyses have been performed, and the results indicate that, while there is considerable room for improvement, the method produces usable and more representative solutions for the design of realistic structures with a substantial savings in computer time.

Brown, A. M.↗

A Proof of the Asymptotic Variance of Path Length Estimators for Single-Collision Monte Carlo Source Iteration in the Thick Diffusion Limit

Here, we prove a theorem relating the variance of path length estimators for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration to a parameter that becomes infinitesimally small in an important physical regime arising in radiative transfer. In our usage, “single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration” refers to Monte Carlo Boltzmann transport methods in which each Monte Carlo particle history includes no more than a single collision, and the physics of multiple scattering is modeled by lagging the scattering source term and iterating until this term converges. Our theorem can be used to construct variance reduction techniques which improve the order of the estimator variance. This enables calculations that would otherwise require impractically large sample sizes to achieve practical estimator uncertainties. We believe this is the first postulation of a theorem relating estimator variance to a limiting case parameter for single-collision Monte Carlo source iteration, and the first proof of such a theorem. We illustrate the theorem’s value with an example in which the authors of a transport method used the theorem to design a variance reduction technique that improved the uncertainty of their solution by a factor of about 500 for a proxy problem from radiative transfer that contains both optically-thick and optically-thin material.

Mathematics and Computing↗

Unveiling the Galaxy Population at 1.3 < z < 4: the HUDF05 NICMOS Parallel Fields

Using the Hubble Ultra Deep Field Near Infrared Camera and Multi-Object Spectrometer (HUDF-NICMOS) UDF05 parallel fields, we cross-matched 301 out of 630 galaxies with the ACS filters V606 and z850, NICMOS filters J110 and H160, and Spitzer IRAC filters at 3.6, 4.5, 5.8 , and 8.0 (mu)m. We modeled the spectral energy distributions (SEDs) to estimate: photometric redshifts, dust extinction, stellar mass, bolometric luminosity, starburst age and metallicity. To validate the photometric redshifts, comparisons with 16 spectroscopic redshifts give 75% within Delta < 0.2, which agrees with the sensitivities expected from the Balmer-break in our dataset. Five parallel fields observed by NICMOS have sensitivities in the H160-band of 80% at mAB = 25.4 and 50% at mAB = 26.7. Because the sample is H160-band selected, it is sensitive to stellar mass rather than UV luminosities. We also use Monte Carlo simulations to determine that the parameters from the best-fit SEDs are robust for the redshift ranges z > or approx. 1.3. Based on the robustness of the photometric redshifts, we analyze a subsample of the 301 galaxies at 1.3 < or = z < or = 2 (35 objects) and 3 < or = z < or = 4 (31 objects) and determine that L(BoI) and the star formation rate increase significantly from z approx. 1.5 to 4. The Balmer decrement is indicative of more evolved galaxies, and at high redshifts, they serve as records of some of the first galaxies. Therefore, the galaxies in this sample are great candidates for future surveys with the James Webb Space Telescope and Atacama Large Millimeter Array.

Petty, Sara M.↗

Spinbox: tools for many-body quantum systems in a Monte Carlo context

Spinbox is a piece of software that facilitates quantum mechanical calculations relevant to Monte Carlo simulation of atomic nuclei. At the front lines of research on the nuclear many-body problem are a large number of supercomputer-scale simulation codes. These codes produce valuable results but can be hard to understand, especially for those without intimate knowledge of the relevant theoretical methods. Thus, tools that fill pedagogical roles are extremely valuable. Spinbox makes it easy for one to replicate and analyze the computational processes relevant to a Quantum Monte Carlo (QMC) simulation that may be difficult to understand/debug/analyze due to the scale of the corresponding simulation software. Spinbox is written in Python using other state-of-the-art Python modules for numerical calculations. While a number of Python libraries exist that are suited to general quantum many-body calculations, the motivation of Spinbox is quite particular. In Diffusion Monte Carlo methods (DMC, GFMC, AFDMC), the central calculation is the imaginary-time propagation of individual samples of the many-body wavefunction. Although quantum wavefunctions generally must be described by a probability distribution over a basis, DMC imbues particles (within one sample) with classical spatial coordinates. This method is unusual, so other Python packages are typically not set up to do this easily. Furthermore, the software has built-in options for nuclear systems assuming isospin symmetry, which can be set up with other libraries but is a nontrivial process to do so. Features: - numerical representation of samples of the many-body wavefunctions, including tensor-product states (used in AFDMC) - numerical representation of many-body operators, including tensor-product operators: general, spin, imaginary-time propagation, etc. - the correct associated arithmetic and algebra, implemented as class methods - classes for representing realistic nuclear two- and three-body Hamiltonians (e.g. Argonne V18, Illinois NNN) - large-scale parallel integration over random variables, crucial for the AFDMC method My goal is to make this package open source so that anyone may use it and contribute to it, particularly other researchers doing AFDMC calculations

Fox, Jordan↗

MadGraph5_aMC@NLO + Pythia 8.3 event samples for cell resampling studies (13 TeV, Z+jets and top quark pair production)

This record contains two simulated proton–proton collision samples at a center-of-mass energy of √s = 13 TeV, each of 100,000 events, stored as complete truth-level particle records. The samples were produced for a study of optimal-transport-based cell resampling of negatively weighted Monte Carlo events, and are released so that the study can be reproduced and to support further work on negative-weight reduction.

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Adventures in Parallel Processing: Entry, Descent and Landing Simulation for the Genesis and Stardust Missions

This paper will describe the Entry, Descent and Landing simulation tradeoffs and techniques that were used to provide the Monte Carlo data required to approve entry during a critical period just before entry of the Genesis Sample Return Capsule. The same techniques will be used again when Stardust returns on January 15, 2006. Only one hour was available for the simulation which propagated 2000 dispersed entry states to the ground. Creative simulation tradeoffs combined with parallel processing were needed to provide the landing footprint statistics that were an essential part of the Go/NoGo decision that authorized release of the Sample Return Capsule a few hours before entry.

Lyons, Daniel T.↗

Materials Degradation in the Jovian Radiation Environment

The radiation environment of Jupiter represents a significant hazard for Europa Lander deorbit stage components, and presents a significant potential mission risk. The radiolytic degradation of ammonium perchlorate (AP) oxidizer in solid propellants may affect its properties and performance. The Monte Carlo code MONSOL was used for modeling of laboratory experiments on the electron irradiation of propellant samples. An approach for flattening dose profiles along the depth of irradiated samples is proposed. Depth-dose distributions produced by Jovian electrons in multi-layer slabs of materials are calculated. It is found that the absorbed dose in a particular slab is significantly affected by backscattered electrons and photons from neighboring slabs. The dose and radiolytic decomposition of AP crystals are investigated and radiation-induced chemical yields and weight percent of radical products are reported.

Miloshevsky, Gennady↗

Uncertainty quantification for Joule heating processes in fibrous pore-resolved media

Joule heating (JH) is an energy-efficient and sustainable technique for heating materials. Its application for industrial heating, particularly, has been gaining attention due to its potential for increasing the yield of various chemical products. The process involves the use of heating elements (materials that are highly conductive electrically and thermally) to heat up other materials or substances. These conductors, however, can exhbit varying degrees of uncertainty due to non-linearities in their temperature-dependent properties, which could result in variable material behavior. In this work, we carry out uncertainty quantification (UQ) at the pore scale to describe the uncertainty of such materials. In so doing, we applied the non-intrusive polynomial chaos expansion (PCE) technique to quantify the uncertainty within the system. The steady state Joule heating equation was solved numerically at the pore scale mimicking conditions within a heating chamber for propane dehydrogenation, and various electro-thermal profiles were obtained. We also examined the effect of the number of sampling points (20 – 100) and order of the PCE coefficients (2 – 5) on the accuracy of the temperature evaluations. The results were then benchmarked with the standard Monte Carlo (MC) method. The average temperature of the 4th-order global PCE showed good agreement with the MC results (which were positively skewed). Orders greater than 4 gave an underestimation of the temperatures while predictions for the peak temperature improved as the number of sampling points increased.

Fagbemi, Samuel [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000236995025)↗

Uncertainty Quantification for Neutron Shield Using Convolutional Neural Networks

Uncertainty quantification from radiation transport calculations was conducted using a Bayesian inference approach. A surrogate model, using a convolutional neural network, was employed to emulate the neutron fluence, which was simulated with a Monte Carlo radiation transport model. This allowed for a computationally cheap approach to evaluate input parameters and to sample their corresponding posterior probability distributions. Experimental data from the literature were employed to perform uncertainty quantification studies for concrete shields. As a result, the method is a nonintrusive approach that enables studies with multiple input parameters and can be applied to any radiation transport model.

Bayesian inference↗

Determination of proton PDF uncertainties with Markov chain Monte Carlo

We present an analysis of parton distribution functions (PDFs) of the proton using Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) methods. The MCMC approach naturally implements Bayes’ theorem and, thus, provides a means to directly sample the underlying probability distribution—in this case, the probability distribution of the PDF parameters. This allows for a straightforward propagation of the resulting uncertainties into any PDF-dependent observable, preserving their simple probabilistic interpretation. In our analysis we include a broad set of deep inelastic scattering data from HERA, BCDMS and NMC experiments along with the Drell-Yan, 𝑊 and 𝑍 boson data from LHC and Tevatron experiments, which combined with theoretical calculations at next-to-next-to-leading order in QCD allow for realistic determination of PDFs. The main focus of this analysis is to explore alternative methods for PDF uncertainty estimation that are more firmly grounded in statistical principles. We show that the flexibility of the Bayes framework, allowing one, e.g., to account for non-Gaussianity or inconsistencies of datasets, is crucial to extract realistic uncertainties when such assumptions are not fulfilled. We also demonstrate that MCMC allows one to determine the Δ⁢𝜒 2 value corresponding to a given confidence level in the sample, which can, in turn, be used as a statistically well-founded tolerance criterion used in the Hessian method, thus addressing one of its main long-standing drawbacks.

Risse, Peter Clemens [Universität Münster (Germany↗

Discrete generative diffusion models without stochastic differential equations: A tensor network approach

Diffusion models (DMs) are a class of generative machine learning methods that sample a target distribution by transforming samples of a trivial (often Gaussian) distribution using a learned stochastic differential equation. In standard DMs, this is done by learning a “score function” that reverses the effect of adding diffusive noise to the distribution of interest. Here we consider the generalisation of DMs to lattice systems with discrete degrees of freedom, and where noise is added via Markov chain jump dynamics. We show how to use tensor networks (TNs) to efficiently define and sample such “discrete diffusion models” (DDMs) without explicitly having to solve a stochastic differential equation. We show the following: (i) by parametrising the data and evolution operators as TNs, the denoising dynamics can be represented exactly; (ii) the auto-regressive nature of TNs allows to generate samples efficiently and without bias; (iii) for sampling Boltzmann-like distributions, TNs allow to construct an efficient learning scheme that integrates well with Monte Carlo. We illustrate this approach to study the equilibrium of two models with non-trivial thermodynamics, the d = 1 constrained Fredkin chain and the d = 2 Ising model. Published by the American Physical Society 2025

Causer, Luke (ORCID:0000000194243473)↗