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At least 325 records · Page 18

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DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Performance and Explainability Tradeoffs for Machine-Learning Models for Predictive Maintenance of Circulating Water Systems in Nuclear Power Plants

Predictive maintenance (PdM) has shown great potential for achieving substantial cost savings and enhancing the economic competitiveness of nuclear power plants (NPPs) in today's energy market. Among the different modeling approaches that exist, machine learning (ML) tools in particular have a demonstrated ability to handle high dimensional and multivariate data and to extract hidden relationships within data in industrial environments. While ML methods show great potential, their lack of explainability---especially for black-box models---is a major hurdle to their adoption. Moreover, considering the supposed trade-off between explainability and performance challenges, careful consideration must be made as to which of these quality aspects takes precedence in light of multiple modeling options, resource availability, and domain characteristics. The present work evaluates the performance of six ML models, each with a different degree of explainability, in classifying the conditions of circulating water pumps (CWPs) by utilizing sensor data from nuclear power plants. To determine the drivers behind the trade-offs presented by this array of models, this work also tests different combinations of CWP units as the training and testing data, degrees of data imbalance, and objective functions for hyperparameter tuning. It was found that black-box models tend to afford superior performance in cases where there are far more instances of one type of labeled data than of any other type. It is recommended that a guided procedure be followed for designing and delivering an ML system that is sufficiently explainable to all involved stakeholders.

22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗

DOE OSTI2024

Analyzing the impact of design factors on solar module thermomechanical durability using interpretable machine learning techniques

Solar modules in utility-scale systems are expected to maintain decades of lifetime to rival conventional energy sources. However, cyclic thermomechanical loading often degrades their long-term performance, highlighting the importance of effective design to mitigate thermal expansion mismatches between module materials. Given the complex composition of solar modules, isolating the impact of individual components on overall durability remains a challenging task. In this work, we analyze a comprehensive data set that comprises bill-of-materials (BOM) and thermal cycling power loss from 251 distinct module designs to identify the predominant design factors and their impacts on the thermomechanical durability of modules. The methodology of our analysis combines machine learning modeling (random forest) and Shapley additive explanation (SHAP) to correlate design factors with power loss and interpret the model’s decision-making. The interpretation reveals that silicon type (monocrystalline or polycrystalline), encapsulant thickness, busbar numbers, and wafer thickness predominantly influence the degradation. With lower power loss of around 0.6% on average in the SHAP analysis, monocrystalline cells present better durability than polycrystalline cells. This finding is further substantiated by statistical testing on our raw data set. The SHAP analysis also demonstrates that while thicker encapsulants lead to reduced power loss, further increasing their thickness over around 0.6 to 0.7 mm does not yield additional benefits, particularly for the front side one. In addition, other important BOM features such as the number of busbars are analyzed. This study provides a blueprint for utilizing explainable machine learning techniques in a complex material system and can potentially guide future research on optimizing the design of solar modules.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services

Recent research has highlighted the potential for solar to act as a zero-marginal-cost and zero-emission flexibility resource on the bulk power system when operated with advanced control systems. To increase the performance of these systems, leading technologies, including machine learning (ML) and hierarchical inverter set point allocation, have been proposed; however, these technologies lack comprehensive validation under real-world application scenarios. This paper addresses this gap by designing and developing a controller-hardware-in-the-loop framework to evaluate the performance of different flexible solar technologies in responding to automatic generation control signals in a closed-loop fashion. Simulation results indicate the superior performance of an ML-based approach compared to the conventional reference-control grouping-based approach, showcasing its potential to support grid stability and operational efficiency.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2025

A novel approach for large-scale wind energy potential assessment

Increasing wind energy generation is central to grid decarbonization, yet methods to estimate wind energy potential are not standardized, leading to inconsistencies and even skewed results. This study aims to improve the fidelity of wind energy potential estimates through an approach that integrates geospatial analysis and machine learning (i.e., Gaussian process regression). We demonstrate this approach to assess the spatial distribution of wind energy capacity potential in the Contiguous United States (CONUS). We find that the capacity-based power density ranges from 1.70 MW/km2 (25th percentile) to 3.88 MW/km2 (75th percentile) for existing wind farms in the CONUS. The value is lower in agricultural areas (2.73 ± 0.02 MW/km2, mean ± 95 % confidence interval) and higher in other land cover types (3.30 ± 0.03 MW/km2). Notably, advancements in turbine manufacturing could reduce power density in areas with lower wind speeds by adopting low specific-power turbines, but improve power density in areas with higher wind speeds (>8.35 m/s at 120m above the ground), highlighting opportunities for repowering existing wind farms. Wind energy potential is shaped by wind resource quality and is regionally characterized by land cover and physical conditions, revealing significant capacity potential in the Great Plains and Upper Texas. The results indicate that areas previously identified as hot spots using existing approaches (e.g., the west of the Rocky Mountains) may have a limited capacity potential due to low wind resource quality. Improvements in methodology and capacity potential estimates in this study could serve as a new basis for future energy systems analysis and planning.

Dai, Tao↗

DOE OSTI2025

Sieving Hydrogen Isotopes via Machine Learning Assisted Chemical Vapor Deposition (CVD) of High‐Quality Monolayer Hexagonal Boron Nitride (h‐BN) on Iron Foils

Atomically thin two-dimensional (2D) ceramics, such as monolayer hexagonal boron nitride (h-BN), present potential for disruptive advances in separations. However, sub-atomic scale separation of hydrogen isotopes (H + /D + ) require near pristine 2D material membranes, and scalable synthesis of such high-quality h-BN comparable to mechanically exfoliated crystals remains a significant challenge. Here, we report a scalable Fe-catalyzed chemical vapor deposition (CVD) process for bottom-up synthesis of large-area, high-quality monolayer h-BN films, overcoming key limitations of conventional ammonia-based routes. By leveraging mechanistic insights and higher CVD temperatures, we suppress multilayer formation and achieve uniform monolayer h-BN coverage on commercially available Fe foils. Machine learning enables systematic exploration of the complex, multi-dimensional CVD parameter space (growth time, temperature, precursor temperature, multilayer faction, coverage), providing data-driven approaches to visualize and identify process regimes facilitating predominantly monolayer h-BN growth with minimal secondary nuclei/ad-layers. The optimized Fe-catalyzed CVD h-BN membranes show high-quality as observed by proton/deuteron (H + /D + ) selectivity ≈8.45, approaching the highest quality benchmark of mechanically exfoliated h-BN (H + /D + selectivity ≈10) as well as significantly outperforming Cu-catalyzed CVD h-BN membranes (H + /D + selectivity ≈3.62, control selectivity ≈1.7). Our work provides a scalable cost-effective route for high-quality monolayer h-BN synthesis for sub-atomic scale separations (H + /D + ) and demonstrates the broader potential of machine learning-guided optimization of CVD for advancing synthesis of 2D materials.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2026

Cross-domain digital twin architecture for predictive maintenance via machine learning and Large Language Models

This research introduces a comprehensive framework for creating and deploying a digital twin platform for continuous monitoring and predictive maintenance within industrial settings. Through utilizing advanced technologies, including Unreal Engine 5, Unity 3D, the Message Queue Telemetry Transport protocol, Random Forest machine learning algorithms, and Large Language Models (LLMs), we establish a platform that digitally reproduces physical equipment and translates digital controls into real-world actions. This facilitates preventive maintenance approaches and improves operational effectiveness. The digital twin platform gathers sensor data from operational equipment, analyzes it using machine learning, and delivers practical insights to prevent potential malfunctions and enhance equipment performance. Furthermore, the incorporation of a web portal enables efficient monitoring and access to historical data, educational materials, and equipment status information. Preliminary findings indicate that digital twins can transform industrial equipment management and maintenance methodologies.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2026

Challenges and Vision for Standardization of Biopolymer Data Sets for Machine Learning

Machine learning (ML) is transforming materials research, yet potential for biopolymer discovery remains constrained by fragmented data and nonstandardized reporting. Biopolymers differ significantly from synthetic polymers, requiring specialized approaches to represent their biosynthetic origins, hierarchical structures, and application-specific metrics. In this Perspective, we identify three core challenges limiting biopolymer representation: information encoding, data quality, and data sharing. We describe the most pressing issues and propose commensurate approaches to address each key challenge. Recommendations include the design and adoption of biopolymer-specific fingerprinting and representation frameworks, development of hybrid human-large language model (LLM) data extraction strategies, and expanding Findable, Accessible, Interoperable, Reusable (FAIR)-compliant repositories. We propose a robust foundation to define interoperable, high-quality data sets that capture the full context of biopolymer materials. Standardized metadata, shared ontologies, and community-driven infrastructure would enable scalable, reproducible workflows and accelerate the ML-driven development of biopolymers.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Towards informatics-driven design of nuclear waste forms

Informatics-driven approaches, such as machine learning and sequential experimental design, have shown the potential to drastically impact next-generation materials discovery and design.

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗

DOE OSTI2026

Minimization of Disorder as a Key Design Principle for Natural Sizes of Light Harvesting 2 Complexes

The light harvesting 2 (LH2) complex of purple bacteria has excellent energy conversion efficiency. Clarifying the design principle behind such efficiency at the atomistic level is crucial for understanding its structure–function relationship and can be utilized for the design of artificial light harvesting systems. To this end, we conducted comprehensive computational investigation of the dynamical and statistical nature of electronic excited states of pigment molecules in a natural LH2 complex with 9-fold symmetry and its two non-natural in silico analogues with 6- and 12-fold symmetries. To ensure reliable and efficient all-atomistic molecular dynamics simulations, we combined a well established interpolation approach for the construction of the potential energy surface with a neural network machine learning approach. Outcomes of these calculations clarify that non-natural forms of LH2-type complexes have significantly larger quasistatic disorder than those for the natural one. In addition, non-natural systems have more disruptions of the hydrogen bonding, underscoring its crucial role for reducing the disorder. On the other hand, local environmental dynamics are relatively insensitive to the structural changes although there is moderate enhancement in the anharmonic or interatomic components for the synthetic ones. These findings based on all-atomistic simulations provide direct computational evidence that the structure and sizes of natural LH2 complexes are designed to minimize the energetic disorder. We analyze quantitative implications of these for the energy transferring capability of the LH2 complex.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2026

Identifying Anomalous DESI Galaxy Spectra with a Variational Autoencoder

The tens of millions of spectra being captured by the Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) provide tremendous discovery potential. In this work we show how Machine Learning, in particular Variational Autoencoders (VAE), can detect anomalies in a sample of approximately 200,000 DESI spectra comprising galaxies, quasars and stars. We demonstrate that the VAE can compress the dimensionality of a spectrum by a factor of 100, while still retaining enough information to accurately reconstruct spectral features. We then detect anomalous spectra as those with high reconstruction error and those which are isolated in the VAE latent representation. The anomalies identified fall into two categories: spectra with artefacts and spectra with unique physical features. Awareness of the former can help to improve the DESI spectroscopic pipeline; whilst the latter can lead to the identification of new and unusual objects. To further curate the list of outliers, we use the Astronomaly package which employs Active Learning to provide personalised outlier recommendations for visual inspection. In this work we also explore the VAE latent space, finding that different object classes and subclasses are separated despite being unlabelled. We demonstrate the interpretability of this latent space by identifying tracks within it that correspond to various spectral characteristics. For example, we find tracks that correspond to increasing star formation and increase in broad emission lines along the Balmer series. In upcoming work we hope to apply the methods presented here to search for both systematics and astrophysically interesting objects in much larger datasets of DESI spectra.

Nicolaou, C. [University Coll. London] (ORCID:0000↗

DOE OSTI2024

Alice

SAND2025-00233O Alice is a PyTorch optimizer that helps improve the performance of machine learning models. It focuses on optimizing the process of training these models by using a special technique called the curvature of expectation. This technique allows Alice to make better decisions during the training process, leading to more accurate predictions. By using Alice, researchers and developers can potentially achieve better results and speed up the optimization of machine learning models. It's like having a smarter assistant that helps you train your models more effectively. Sandia National Laboratories is a multimission laboratory managed and operated by National Technology & Engineering Solutions of Sandia, LLC, a wholly owned subsidiary of Honeywell International Inc., for the U.S. Department of Energy’s National Nuclear Security Administration under contract DE-NA0003525.

Duersch, Jed↗

DOE OSTI2025

Investigation of the Effect of Framework Flexibility on CO 2 Adsorption in SIFSIX-3-Cu Using a Machine-Learned Force Field

Metal–organic frameworks (MOFs) offer promise as selective CO 2 sorbents, but successful MOF sorbent materials need high CO 2 binding affinity and selectivity for CO 2 over water. This work focuses on the use of machine-learned force fields (MLFFs) to model CO 2 adsorption in flexible MOFs, with a focus on SIFSIX-3-Cu, an anion-pillared MOF known for its high CO 2 affinity. A preliminary high-throughput screening of over 900 anion-pillared MOFs was performed using rigid UFF+DDEC6 force fields to predict zero-loading heats of adsorption for CO 2 and H 2 O. SIFSIX-3-Cu was selected for further computational study due to its predicted CO 2 heat of adsorption and experimental relevance. A DeePMD-based MLFF was trained to reproduce DFT (PBE+D3) energies and forces, with an iterative sampling scheme combining molecular dynamics, geometry optimization, random geometric insertion, and NVT Monte Carlo-based configuration generation to capture both attractive and repulsive regions of the potential energy surface. Flexibility of the MOF was explicitly included, contrasting with previous models that approximated the MOF as rigid. Hybrid Monte Carlo/molecular dynamics (MC/MD) simulations with the MLFF produced CO 2 adsorption isotherms in good agreement with experimental data at direct air capture (DAC) pressures (e.g., 40 Pa), in contrast to previous overestimations of CO 2 sorption by models with rigid structures. Bond and angle histogram analysis showed that MOF flexibility increased the variance of fluorine–fluorine diagonal distances at adsorption sites, resulting in a lower predicted sorption for flexible, asymmetric SIFSIX-3-Cu pore geometries compared to the rigid, symmetric DFT-optimized SIFSIX-3-Cu pore geometry. A detailed description of flexibility afforded by the MLFF resulted in an accurately predicted CO 2 uptake (0.88 mmol/g) at low pressure (40 Pa) compared to the experimentally measured value (1.24 mmol/g). In conclusion, these results underscore the importance of including framework flexibility when modeling adsorption phenomena in MOFs, particularly for low-pressure applications.

adsorption↗

DOE OSTI2024

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services

closed-loop validation↗

DOE OSTI2024

A CHIL Validation of Machine Learning-Assisted Methods for Real-Time Controls of Solar PV for Grid Services: Preprint

closed-loop validation↗

DOE OSTI2025

Simulating Atmospheric Processes in Earth System Models and Quantifying Uncertainties With Deep Learning Multi‐Member and Stochastic Parameterizations

Abstract Deep learning is a powerful tool to represent subgrid processes in climate models, but many application cases have so far used idealized settings and deterministic approaches. Here, we develop stochastic parameterizations with calibrated uncertainty quantification to learn subgrid convective and turbulent processes and surface radiative fluxes of a superparameterization embedded in an Earth System Model (ESM). We explore three methods to construct stochastic parameterizations: (a) a single Deep Neural Network (DNN) with Monte Carlo Dropout; (b) a multi‐member parameterization; and (c) a Variational Encoder Decoder with latent space perturbation. We show that the multi‐member parameterization improves the representation of convective processes, especially in the planetary boundary layer, compared to individual DNNs. The respective uncertainty quantification illustrates that methods (b) and (c) are advantageous compared to a dropout‐based DNN parameterization regarding the spread of convective processes. Hybrid simulations with our best‐performing multi‐member parameterizations remained challenging and crash within the first days. Therefore, we develop a pragmatic partial coupling strategy relying on the superparameterization for condensate emulation. Partial coupling reduces the computational efficiency of hybrid Earth‐like simulations but enables model stability over 5 months with our multi‐member parameterizations. However, our hybrid simulations exhibit biases in thermodynamic fields and differences in precipitation patterns. Despite this, the multi‐member parameterizations enable improvements in reproducing tropical extreme precipitation compared to a traditional convection parameterization. Despite these challenges, our results indicate the potential of a new generation of multi‐member machine learning parameterizations leveraging uncertainty quantification to improve the representation of stochasticity of subgrid effects.

Behrens, Gunnar [Deutsches Zentrum für Luft‐ und R↗

DOE OSTI2025

Evaluation of Machine Learning Models for Automated Data Analysis in In-Service Nuclear Power Plant Inspections

The commercial nuclear power industry is facing a potential shortage of certified nondestructive evaluation (NDE) analysts to meet future in-service inspection demands. Automated data analysis (ADA) currently supports human inspectors in tasks such as eddy current evaluations for steam generator examinations. Machine learning (ML) systems are nearing the capability to pass performance demonstration tests for ultrasonic testing (UT) inspections of reactor pressure vessel upper head penetrations in nuclear power plants (NPPs). Current research and development is focused on assisted analysis (AA) of ADA versus fully automated examinations. This presentation will cover assessment of ML flaw detection on dissimilar metal weld (DMW) piping joints.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Automated annotation of scientific texts for ML-based keyphrase extraction and validation

Advanced omics technologies and facilities generate a wealth of valuable data daily; however, the data often lack the essential metadata required for researchers to find, curate, and search them effectively. The lack of metadata poses a significant challenge in the utilization of these data sets. Machine learning (ML)–based metadata extraction techniques have emerged as a potentially viable approach to automatically annotating scientific data sets with the metadata necessary for enabling effective search. Text labeling, usually performed manually, plays a crucial role in validating machine-extracted metadata. However, manual labeling is time-consuming and not always feasible; thus, there is a need to develop automated text labeling techniques in order to accelerate the process of scientific innovation. This need is particularly urgent in fields such as environmental genomics and microbiome science, which have historically received less attention in terms of metadata curation and creation of gold-standard text mining data sets. In this paper, we present two novel automated text labeling approaches for the validation of ML-generated metadata for unlabeled texts, with specific applications in environmental genomics. Our techniques show the potential of two new ways to leverage existing information that is only available for select documents within a corpus to validate ML models, which can then be used to describe the remaining documents in the corpus. The first technique exploits relationships between different types of data sources related to the same research study, such as publications and proposals. The second technique takes advantage of domain-specific controlled vocabularies or ontologies. In this paper, we detail applying these approaches in the context of environmental genomics research for ML-generated metadata validation. Our results show that the proposed label assignment approaches can generate both generic and highly specific text labels for the unlabeled texts, with up to 44% of the labels matching with those suggested by a ML keyword extraction algorithm.

96 KNOWLEDGE MANAGEMENT AND PRESERVATION↗

DOE OSTI2025

Optimization of simulated high-field side lower hybrid current drive coupling using machine learning predictions of scrape-off layer density

Lower hybrid current drive (LHCD) is a potential source of non-inductive off-axis current drive (CD) for tokamaks. Although LHCD has been successfully deployed on a number of tokamaks, it is highly sensitive to the scrape-off layer (SOL) conditions local to the LHCD launcher. Large gaps between the launcher and plasma core, SOL turbulence, or edge density perturbations due to edge-localized modes can hamper CD or cause large reflected power. These coupling issues in part motivated the installation of an LHCD launcher on the high-field side (HFS) of DIII-D. On the HFS, the SOL is less turbulent and more controllable compared to the low-field side. This quiescence may result in more predictable edge conditions and thus a more predictable CD. Here, in this work, HFS SOL reflectometry measurements are predicted from global plasma parameters using machine learning models. The SOL predictions coupled with the full-wave simulation of the LHCD launcher allow for the prediction of reflected power, directivity, and arcing risk before the discharge. Launcher performance is then optimized using multi-objective Bayesian optimization, finding the shot parameters that result in an optimal SOL density that maximizes CD while minimizing the risk of arcing. The predictions and optimizations of LHCD performance are then accelerated using a surrogate model of the full-wave LHCD simulation.

Bayesian optimization↗