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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18

Exploring the QCD phase diagram through correlations and fluctuations

The exploration of the Quantum Chromodynamics (QCD) phase diagram is a central goal of relativistic heavy-ion collision experiments. This review focuses on the role of fluctuations and correlations as sensitive probes of the phase structure. We discuss theoretical advancements and experimental methodologies employed to map the QCD phase diagram, highlighting constraints derived from both lattice QCD calculations and existing experimental data. Key observables such as cumulants and factorial cumulants of conserved charges (e.g., net-proton, net-charge) are explored as promising signatures of phase transitions and the QCD critical point. We discuss how these quantities are measured experimentally and compared with theoretical predictions, addressing challenges and best practices for meaningful comparisons. Special attention is given to predictions and current experimental results at high baryon density, including recent findings from the STAR collaboration at RHIC. Finally, we identify open issues and future directions for fluctuation and correlation studies at lower collision energies, relevant for future measurements, for example by the CBM experiment.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

World Record Demonstration of > 30% Thermophotovoltaic Conversion Efficiency

Thermophotovoltaic (TPV) devices are solid-state heat engines that convert thermal radiation into electricity using semiconductor diodes, and have applications in energy storage, primary power conversion, and waste heat recovery. Higher temperature emitters and wider band gap photovoltaics (PVs) generally afford higher TPV efficiencies. High temperature emitters are accessible in thermal energy storage applications. We have demonstrated a world record 31% +/- 2% TPV conversion efficiency with a 0.9 cm2 GaAs-based PV device under a 2430 °C thermal emitter, producing an electrical output power of 2.23 W. Critical to the result was the cell’s high reflectance of photon energies below the device band gap. Unlike solar PV, for which sub-band gap (SBG) light is lost, a TPV cell can reflect and recycle SBG light to the thermal emitter. The demonstration was made on a custom-built measurement platform in which a ~100 cm2 graphite thermal emitter was heated under vacuum up to 2430 °C. The TPV efficiency was evaluated by comparing the measured electrical output power of the TPV with the calorimetrically measured total net power incident on the cell. The measured TPV efficiency as a function of thermal emitter temperature was corroborated by our full system modeling predictions. As far as the authors are aware, this is the highest TPV conversion efficiency ever measured, and device improvements should yield > 40% efficiency in the near future.

27 ARPA - Advanced Research Projects Agency-Energy↗

Properties of the neutron star crust: Quantifying and correlating uncertainties with improved nuclear physics

A compressible liquid-drop model (CLDM) is used to correlate uncertainties associated with the properties of the neutron star (NS) crust with theoretical estimates of the uncertainties associated with the equation of state (EOS) of homogeneous neutron and nuclear matter. For the latter, we employ recent calculations based on Hamiltonians constructed using chiral effective-field theory (χEFT). Fits to experimental nuclear masses are employed to constrain the CLDM further, and we find that they disfavor some of the χEFT Hamiltonians. The CLDM allows us to study the complex interplay between bulk, surface, curvature, and Coulomb contributions, and their impact on the NS crust. It also reveals how the curvature energy alters the correlation between the surface energy and the bulk symmetry energy. Here our analysis quantifies how the uncertainties associated with the EOS of homogeneous matter implies significant uncertainties for the composition of the crust, its proton fraction, and the volume fraction occupied by nuclei. We find that the finite-size effects impact the crust composition but have a negligible effect on the net isospin asymmetry of matter. The isospin asymmetry is largely determined by the bulk properties and the isospin dependence of the surface energy. The most significant uncertainties associated with matter properties in the densest regions of the crust, the precise location of the crust-core transition, are found to be strongly correlated with uncertainties associated with the Hamiltonians. By adopting a unified model to describe the crust and the core of NSs, we tighten the correlation between their global properties such as their mass-radius relationship, moment of inertia, crust thickness, and tidal deformability with uncertainties associated with the nuclear Hamiltonians.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Revisiting Theoretical Limits for One Degree-of-Freedom Wave Energy Converters

This work revisits the theoretical limits of one degree-of-freedom wave energy converters (WECs). This work considers the floating sphere used in the OES Task 10 WEC modeling and verification effort for analysis. Analytical equations are derived to determine bounds on displacement amplitude, time-averaged power (TAP), and power-take-off (PTO) force. A unique result found shows that the TAP absorbed by a WEC can be defined solely by the inertial properties and radiation hydrodynamic coefficients. In addition, a unique expression for the PTO force was derived that provides lower and upper bounds when resistive control is used to maximize power generation. For complex conjugate control, this same expression only provides a lower bound, as there is theoretically no upper bound. These bounds assist in comparing the performance of the floating sphere if it were to extract energy using surge or heave motion. The analysis shows because of differences in hydrodynamic coefficients for each oscillating mode, there are different frequency ranges that provide better power capture efficiency. The influence of a motion constraint on TAP while utilizing a nonideal power take-off is examined and found to reduce the losses associated with bidirectional energy flow. The expression to calculate TAP with a nonideal PTO is modified by the electrical conversion efficiency and the ratio of the PTO spring and damping coefficients. Furthermore, the PTO spring and damping coefficients were separated in the expression, allowing for limits to be set on the PTO coefficients to ensure net power generation.

16 TIDAL AND WAVE POWER↗

Probing initial baryon stopping and equation of state with rapidity-dependent directed flow of identified particles

In this work, using a (3 + 1)-dimensional hybrid framework with parametric initial conditions, we study the rapidity-dependent directed flow $v_1 (y)$ of identified particles, including pions, kaons, protons, and lambdas in heavy-ion collisions. Cases involving Au + Au collisions are considered, performed at $\sqrt {^SNN}$ ranging from 7.7 to 200 GeV. The dynamics in the beam direction is constrained using the measured pseudo-rapidity distribution of charged particles and the net proton rapidity distribution. Within this framework, the directed flow of mesons is driven by the sideward pressure gradient from the tilted source, and that of baryons mainly due to the initial asymmetric baryon distribution with respect to the beam axis driven by the transverse expansion. Our approach successfully reproduces the rapidity- and beam energy-dependence of $v_1$ for both mesons and baryons. We find that the $v_1 (y)$ of baryons has strong constraining power on the initial baryon stopping, and together with that of mesons, the directed flow probes the equation of state of the dense nuclear matter at finite chemical potentials.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

QCD equation of state at finite densities for nuclear collisions

In this work, we construct the QCD equation of state at finite chemical potentials including net baryon, electric charge, and strangeness based on the results of lattice QCD simulations and the hadron resonance gas model. The situation of strangeness neutrality and a fixed charge-to-baryon ratio, which resembles that of heavy nuclei, is considered for the application to relativistic heavy-ion collisions. This increases the values of baryon chemical potential compared to the case of vanishing strangeness and electric charge chemical potentials, modifying the fireball trajectory in the phase diagram. We perform viscous hydrodynamic simulations and demonstrate the importance of multiple chemical potentials for identified particle production in heavy-ion collisions at the RHIC and SPS beam energy scan energies.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Determination of Chemical Freeze-Out Parameters from Net-Kaon Fluctuations at RHIC

We calculate the mean-over-variance ratio of the net-kaon fluctuations in the Hadron Resonance Gas (HRG) Model for the five highest energies of the RHIC Beam Energy Scan (BES) for different particle data lists. We compare these results with the latest experimental data from the STAR collaboration in order to extract sets of chemical freeze-out parameters for each list. We focused on the PDG2012 and PDG2016+ particle lists, which differ largely in the number of resonant states. Furthermore, our analysis determines the effect of the amount of resonances included in the HRG on the freeze-out conditions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

What Are the Similarities and Differences in Marine Boundary Layer Cloud and Drizzle Microphysical Properties During the ACE–ENA and MARCUS Field Campaigns?

This study compares macrophysical and microphysical properties of single-layered, liquid-dominant MBL clouds from the Measurements of Aerosols, Radiation, and Clouds over the Southern Ocean (MARCUS) (above 60°S) and the ARM East North Atlantic (ENA) site during the Aerosol and Cloud Experiments in Eastern North Atlantic (ACE-ENA) field campaign. A total of 1,136 (16.5% of clouds) and 6,034 5-min cloud samples are selected from MARCUS and ARM ENA in this study. MARCUS clouds have higher cloud-top heights, thicker cloud layers, larger liquid water path, and colder cloud temperatures than ENA. Thinner, warmer MBL clouds at ENA can contain higher layer-mean liquid water content due to higher cloud and ocean surface temperatures along with greater precipitable water vapor (PWV). MARCUS has a higher drizzle frequency rate (71.8%) than ENA (45.1%). Retrieved cloud and drizzle microphysical properties from each field campaign show key differences. MARCUS clouds feature smaller cloud droplets, whereas ENA clouds have larger cloud droplets, especially at the upper region of the cloud. From cloud top to cloud base, drizzle drop sizes increase while number concentrations decrease. Drizzle drop radius and number concentration decrease from cloud base to drizzle base due to net evaporation, and MARCUS' lower specific humidity leads to a higher drizzle base than ENA. In conclusion, the broader surface pressure and lower tropospheric stability (LTS) distributions during MARCUS have demonstrated that there are different synoptic patterns for selected cases during MARCUS with less PWV, while ENA is dominated by high pressure systems with nearly doubled PWV.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Revisiting Theoretical Limits for One-Degree-of-Freedom Wave Energy Converters: Preprint

This work revisits the theoretical limits of one-degree of freedom wave energy converters (WECs). This paper considers the floating sphere used in the Ocean Energy Systems (OES) Task 10 Wave Energy Converter modeling and verification effort for analysis. Analytical equations are derived to determine bounds on the motion amplitude, time-averaged power, and power take-off (PTO) force. A unique result was found that shows the time-averaged power absorbed by a WEC can be defined solely by the inertial properties and the radiation hydrodynamic coefficients. In addition, a unique expression for the PTO force amplitude was derived which has provided upper and lower bounds when resistive control is used to maximize power generation. For complex conjugate control, this same expression can only provide a lower bound as there is theoretically no upper bound. These bounds are used to compare the performance of a floating sphere if it were to extract energy using surge or heave motion. The analysis shows that because of the differences in hydrodynamic coefficients of each oscillating mode there will be different frequency ranges that provide better power capture efficiency. The influence of a motion constraint on power absorption while also utilizing a nonideal power take-off is examined and found to reduce the losses associated with bidirectional energy flow. The expression to calculate the time-averaged power with a nonideal PTO is modified by the mechanical-to-electrical efficiency and the ratio of the PTO spring and damping coefficients. These were separated in the expression which allows for limits to be set on the possible values of PTO coefficients to ensure a net flow of power to the grid.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Subventricular Accumulation of Cu in the Aging Mouse Brain Does Not Associate with Anticipated Increases in Markers of Oxidative Stress

Natural aging is associated with mild memory loss and cognitive decline, and age is the greatest risk factor for neurodegenerative diseases, such as Alzheimer’s disease. There is substantial evidence that oxidative stress is a major contributor to both natural aging and neurodegenerative disease, and coincidently, levels of redox active metals such as Fe and Cu are known to be elevated later in life. Recently, a pronounced age-related increase in Cu content has been reported to occur in mice and rats around a vital regulatory brain region, the subventricular zone of lateral ventricles. In our study herein, we have characterized lateral ventricle Cu content in a unique murine model of accelerated aging, senescence accelerated mouse-prone 8 (SAMP8) mice. Our results confirm an age-related increase in ventricle Cu content, consistent with the studies by others in wild-type mice and rats. Specifically, we observed Cu content to increase over the time frame 1 to 5 months and 5 to 9 months, but interestingly, no significant increase occurred between 9 and 12 months (although brain Cu content at 12 months was significantly elevated relative to 1 and 5 month-old animals). Despite the magnitude of Cu increase observed within the cells that comprise the subventricular zone of lateral ventricles (average 3 mM Cu, with isolated subcellular concentrations of 17 mM), we did not detect spectroscopic markers of thiol oxidation, protein aggregation, or lipid oxidation. The lack of evidence for oxidative stress in ex vivo animal tissue is in contrast to in vitro studies demonstrating that thiol, protein, and lipid oxidation is pronounced at these Cu concentrations. We suggest that our findings most likely indicate that the Cu ions in this brain region are sequestered in an unreactive form, possibly extended chains of Cu-thiolate complexes, which do not readily redox cycle in the aqueous cytosol. In conclusion, these results also appear to partially challenge the long-held view that age-related increases in brain metal content drive oxidative stress as we did not observe a concomitant association between age-related Cu increase and markers of oxidative stress, nor did we observe a net increase in Cu content between mice aged 9 and 12 months.

X-ray fluorescence↗

Revisiting Theoretical Limits for One-Degree-of-Freedom Wave Energy Converters

This work revisits the theoretical limits of one-degree-of-freedom wave energy converters. This paper considers the floating sphere used in the Ocean Energy Systems Task 10 Wave Energy Converter modeling and verification effort for analysis. Analytical equations are derived to determine bounds on the motion amplitude, time-averaged power, and power-take-off (PTO) force. A unique result was found that shows the time-averaged power absorbed by a wave energy converter can be defined solely by the inertial properties and radiation hydrodynamic coefficients. In addition, a unique expression for the PTO force amplitude was derived that has provided upper and lower bounds when resistive control is used to maximize power generation. For complex conjugate control, this same expression can only provide a lower bound, as there is theoretically no upper bound. These bounds are used to compare the performance of a floating sphere if it were to extract energy using surge or heave motion. The analysis shows that because of the differences in hydrodynamic coefficients of each oscillating mode, there will be different frequency ranges that provide better power capture efficiency. The influence of a motion constraint on power absorption while also utilizing a nonideal power take-off is examined and found to reduce the losses associated with bidirectional energy flow. The expression to calculate the time-averaged power with a nonideal PTO is modified by the mechanical-to-electrical efficiency and the ratio of the PTO spring and damping coefficients. The PTO spring and damping coefficients were separated in the expression, which allows for limits to be set on the possible values of PTO coefficients to ensure a net flow of power to the grid.

50 EE - Wind and Water Power Program - Water (EE-4↗

Snow thermal conductivity and conductive flux in the Central Arctic: Estimates from observations and implications for models

During the Arctic winter, the conductive heat flux through the sea ice and snow balances the radiative and turbulent heat fluxes at the surface. Snow on sea ice is a thermal insulator that reduces the magnitude of the conductive flux. The thermal conductivity of snow, that is, how readily energy is conducted, is known to vary significantly in time and space from observations, but most forecast and climate models use a constant value. This work begins with a demonstration of the importance of snow thermal conductivity in a regional coupled forecast model. Varying snow thermal conductivity impacts the magnitudes of all surface fluxes, not just conduction, and their responses to atmospheric forcing. Given the importance of snow thermal conductivity in models, we use observations from sea ice mass balance buoys installed during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate expedition to derive the profiles of thermal conductivity, density, and conductive flux. From 13 sites, median snow thermal conductivity ranges from 0.33 W m −1 K −1 to 0.47 W m −1 K −1 with a median from all data of 0.39 W m −1 K −1 from October to February. In terms of surface energy budget closure, estimated conductive fluxes are generally smaller than the net atmospheric flux by as much as 20 W m −2 , but the average residual during winter is −6 W m −2 , which is within the uncertainties. The spatial variability of conductive heat flux is highest during clear and cold time periods. Higher surface temperature, which often occurs during cloudy conditions, and thicker snowpacks reduce temporal and spatial variability. These relationships are compared between observations and the coupled forecast model, emphasizing both the importance and challenge of describing thermodynamic parameters of snow cover for modeling the Arctic as a coupled system.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Fireball antinucleosynthesis

The tentative identification of approximately ten relativistic antihelium ( He ¯ ) cosmic-ray events at AMS-02 would, if confirmed, challenge our understanding of the astrophysical synthesis of heavy antinuclei. We propose a novel scenario for the enhanced production of such antinuclei that is triggered by isolated, catastrophic injections of large quantities of energetic Standard Model (SM) antiquarks in our galaxy by physics beyond the Standard Model (BSM). We demonstrate that SM antinucleosynthetic processes that occur in the resulting rapidly expanding, thermalized fireballs of SM plasma can, for a reasonable range of parameters, produce the reported tentative ∼ 2 : 1 ratio of He ¯ 3 to He ¯ 4 events at AMS-02, as well as their relativistic boosts. Moreover, we show that this can be achieved without violating antideuterium or antiproton flux constraints for the appropriate antihelium fluxes. A plausible BSM paradigm for the catastrophic injections is the collision of macroscopic composite dark-matter objects carrying large net antibaryon number. Such a scenario would require these objects to be cosmologically stable, but to destabilize upon collision, promptly releasing a fraction of their mass energy into SM antiparticles within a tiny volume. We show that, in principle, the injection rate needed to attain the necessary antihelium fluxes and the energetic conditions required to seed the fireballs appear possible to obtain in such a paradigm. We leave open the question of constructing a BSM particle physics model to realize this, but we suggest two concrete scenarios as promising targets for further investigation. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗

Modeling the Sources and Transport Processes During Extreme Ammonia Episodes in the U.S. Corn Belt

Abstract Atmospheric ammonia (NH 3 ) is the primary form of reactive nitrogen (N r ) and a precursor of ammonium (NH 4 + ) aerosols. Ammonia has been linked to adverse impacts on human health, the loss of ecosystem biodiversity, and plays a key role in aerosol radiative forcing. The midwestern United States is the major NH 3 source in North America because of dense livestock operations and the high use of synthetic nitrogen fertilizers. Here, we combine tall‐tower (100 m) observations in Minnesota and Weather Research and Forecasting model coupled with Chemistry (WRF‐Chem) modeling to investigate high and low NH 3 emission episodes within the U.S. Corn Belt to improve our understanding of the distribution of emission sources and transport processes. We examined observations and performed model simulations for cases in February through November of 2017 and 2018. The results showed the following: (1) Peak emissions in November 2017 were enhanced by above‐normal air temperatures, implying a Q 10 (i.e., the change in NH 3 emissions for a temperature increase of 10°C) of 2.5 for emissions. (2) The intensive livestock emissions rom northern Iowa, approximately 400 km away from the tall tower, accounted for 17.6% of the abundance in tall‐tower NH 3 mixing ratios. (3) Ammonia mixing ratios in the innermost domain 3 frequently (i.e., 336 hr, 48% of November 2017) exceeded 5.3 ppb, an important air quality health standard. (4) In November 2017, simulated NH 3 net ecosystem exchange (the difference between NH 3 emissions and dry deposition) accounted for 60–65% of gross NH 3 emissions for agricultural areas and was 2.8–3.1 times the emissions of forested areas. (5) We estimated a mean annual NH 3 net ecosystem exchange of 1.60 ± 0.06 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for agricultural lands and −0.07 ± 0.02 nmol · m −2 · s −1 for forested lands. These results imply that future warmer fall temperatures will enhance agricultural NH 3 emissions, increase the frequency of dangerous NH 3 episodes, and enhance dry NH 3 deposition in adjacent forested lands.

Hu, Cheng↗

Chemical freeze-out parameters of net-kaons in heavy-ion collisions

In this work, we study chemical freeze-out parameters for heavy-ion collisions by performing two different thermal analyses. We analyze results from thermal fits for particle yields, as well as, net-charge fluctuations in order to characterize the chemical freeze-out. The Hadron Resonance Gas (HRG) model is employed for both methods. By separating the light hadrons from the strange hadrons in thermal fits, we study the proposed flavor hierarchy. For the net-charge fluctuations, we calculate the mean-over-variance ratio of the net-kaon fluctuations in the HRG model at the five highest energies of the RHIC Beam Energy Scan (BES) for different particle data lists. We compare these results with recent experimental data from the STAR collaboration in order to extract sets of chemical freeze-out parameters for each list. We focused on particle lists which differ largely in the number of resonant states. By doing so, our analysis determines the effect of the amount of resonances included in the HRG model on the freeze-out conditions. Our findings have potential impact on various other models in the field of relativistic heavy ion collisions.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗

Value Proposition of UV-Absorbers in PV Module Encapsulation

Various common crystalline silicon cell technologies were exposed to UVA radiation (1.24 Wm-2 nm-1 at 340 nm peak) on the front and back faces at 45 degrees Celsius for periods up to 3000 h, representing about 3 y of solar exposure in Phoenix, Arizona, USA. The resulting degradation of the open-circuit voltage and short-circuit current is presented. Of the various cell types examined, significant levels of degradation were seen in all cases. Less degradation was generally found after UV irradiation of cell fronts and older cell types, whereas a bifacial PERC type exposed on the rear showed about 25% degradation in short circuit current, attributable to lack of a diffused surface field. Selected cells were exposed to UV irradiation with the addition of long pass UV filters to replicate UV-absorbers in encapsulants. Modern cell designs are sensitive to UV-ID because of reduced or eliminated front and back surface field and increased dependence on high quality surface passivation. Single transformation of the independent variable (t, kW h/m^2) could be used to achieve a linear model of the data to extrapolate to 50 y. Solar Advisor Model (SAM) shows appropriate filtering of UV-irradiation can improve LCOE and net present value of plant. Some advanced cell types are seen to be UV-resistant (cell level solutions also exist). Solutions therefore exist on the cell, glass, and encapsulant level. Changes over time in each of these would also need to be considered (solarization, encapsulant browning...).

ENGINEERING,SOLAR ENERGY↗

Physics basis for the reference flat-top plasma scenario in the ST–E1 fusion power plant

As part of the U.S. Department of Energy’s Milestone-Based Fusion Energy Development Program, Tokamak Energy has completed the pre-concept design of the ST–E1 fusion power plant. ST–E1 is envisaged to operate in two phases: a pilot plant phase, targeting sustained net power production of 300 - 500 MWe for a duration >1 hr, followed by a commercial power plant phase targeting steady-state operations and a normalised overnight capital cost of ⩽12 000 $\$$/kWe. The design process adopted was highly iterative, integrating all major plant systems and progressing in a phased fidelity approach. At the pre-conceptual stage, the emphasis has been on exploring the design space, identifying the main system-level trade-offs, and making the key decisions that define the overall plant concept, rather than optimising a single operating point. This paper, part of a focused collection detailing the ST–E1 pre-concept design, addresses the development of a series of reference flat-top plasma operating points for the pilot plant phase. A modelling workflow was established to develop and assess candidate plasma design points and explore key dependencies. The workflow includes integrated core plasma modelling, magnetohydrodynamic (MHD) stability assessment, equilibrium generation, scrape-off-layer and exhaust modelling, heating & current drive design and optimisation, and turbulent transport modelling. Using this framework, the impact of several key parameters on the flat-top operating space was investigated, including the density limit, core radiation fraction and divertor power loading, level of external heating and curent drive power and assumed pedestal characteristics. The MHD stability, controllability and micro-stability characteristics of these plasmas were also analysed. These investigations informed the definition of a set of fully non-inductive, flat-top reference operating points that satisfy the high-level ST–E1 mission, including a low and high density case, a case that is stable to resistive wall modes and a case with reduced divertor power loading.

ST–E1↗

Future impacts of ozone driven damages on agricultural systems

Current ozone (O 3 ) concentration levels entail significant damages in crop yields around the world. The reaction of the emitted precursors (mostly methane and nitrogen oxides) with solar radiation contribute to O 3 levels that exceed established thresholds for crop damage. This paper shows current and projected (up to 2080) relative yield losses (RYLs) driven by O 3 exposure for different crops and the associated economic damages applying dynamic crop production and prices that are calculated per region and period. We adjust future crop yields in the Global Change Assessment Model (GCAM) to reflect the RYLs and analyze the effects on agricultural markets. We find that the changes (generally reductions) in O 3 precursor emissions in a reference scenario would reduce the agricultural damages, compared to present, for most of the regions, with a few exceptions including India, where higher future O3 concentrations have large negative impacts on crop yields. The annual economic impact of O3 driven losses from 2010-2080 are, in billion US dollars at 2015 prices ($B), 5.0-6.0, 9.8-18.8, 6.7-10.6 and 10.4-12.5 for corn, soybeans, rice and wheat, respectively, with the large losses for wheat and soybeans driven by their comparatively high responses to O 3 . When O 3 effects are explicitly modelled as exogenous yield shocks in future periods, there is a direct impact in future agricultural markets. Therefore, the aggregated net present value (NPV) of crop production would be reduced around by $90.8B at a global level. However, these changes are not distributed evenly across regions, and the net present market value of the crops would increase by up to $118.2B (India) or decrease by up to $59.2B (China).

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗