Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “quenching heat transfer”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

583 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying System Strength From Grid-Forming Resources Using Frequency Scan Approach: Preprint

Current industry practices for quantifying the system strength contribution from grid-forming (GFM) resources to ensure stability of power systems dominated by inverter-based resources (IBRs) are primarily based on iterative electromagnetic transient (EMT) time-domain simulation studies. While feasible, these approaches are resource-intensive, lack scalability and intuition, and might not evaluate the system strength contribution over the entire frequency range of interest. This paper introduces a novel, frequency-domain approach to quantify system strength support provided by a GFM resource using frequency scans. The proposed method uses transfer functions from the grid voltage magnitude (V) and phase (?), respectively, to the reactive (Q) and active power (P) output of a GFM resource for quantifying its contribution to system strength. These transfer functions provide a direct measure of the ability of a GFM resource to behave as a stiff voltage source behind a reactance over a specified frequency range, enabling robust quantification of its system strength contribution. The key innovation of this work is the development of a frequency domain system strength metric called the dynamic short-circuit ratio (dSCR) that is suitable for IBR-dominated power systems and is directly related with the familiar short circuit ratio (SCR) metric. The new metric, dSCR, enables the assessment of system strength contributions from both synchronous machines and converter-based GFM resources using a unified benchmark, which is not possible with the traditional SCR metric. The paper also demonstrates how impedance scans could identify if an unstable condition observed during weak grid conditions is a result of the lack active or reactive power support or both. By leveraging the proposed frequency-domain dSCR metric for quantifying system strength contribution from GFM IBRs, the paper demonstrates targeted mitigation strategies for weak grid instabilities without resorting to repeated, time-consuming time-domain simulations. The result is a scalable and efficient approach to remediate stability challenges in power systems with high shares of IBRs and accelerating the integration of GFM technologies for system strength support in power systems.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Technology & Design Innovations to Maximize the Reduction Effect on DCFC Unit Cost Economics (Max‐REDUCE)

With the high cost and reliability issues of DCFC infrastructure the project specifically addressed the needs of innovating on the AC to DC power conversion. We proved the integration of a new power module into existing charger units, and that theoretical educational work on single stage energy conversion is commercially viable, and a reduced cost compared to existing methods. Our A sample shown 3 PH 480VAC 60hz to 350VDC 8.5kW power transfer, and our software and simulation proved efficiency greater than 97% from 20kW to > 60kW, over the DC output voltage range 200 – 1200V. The project was stopped before we could implement B sample and execute full power testing, validation and integration into a demonstration charger (budget period 3).

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗
DOE OSTI2024

Cross-scale interaction between microturbulence and meso-scale reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes in DIII-D plasmas

Abstract This paper reports global nonlinear gyrokinetic simulations that couple meso-scale reversed shear Alfvén eigenmodes (RSAEs) driven by energetic particles (EPs) and ion temperature gradient (ITG) microturbulence driven by thermal plasma, using equilibrium and profiles from DIII-D discharge #159243. In simulations focusing only on the ITG, electrostatic ITG drives a huge thermal ion heat transport, which is reduced by a factor of 10 to a level close to the experimental value in electromagnetic simulation due to finite β effect. In the simulations coupling the RSAE and ITG, ITG can scatter the resonant EP nonlinearly trapped by the RSAE and damp the zonal flows generated by the RSAE. The regulation of the RSAE by the ITG greatly reduces the initial saturation amplitude of the RSAE but increases the RSAE amplitude and associated EP transport to experimental levels in the quasi-steady state. The RSAE effects on the ITG, specifically the stronger zonal flows generated by the RSAE and the RSAE frequency modulation of the ITG-induced thermal ion heat transport, in turn, leads to a reduction of the thermal ion heat transport by more than a factor of 2 . For a stronger background ITG, the regulation of the RSAE by the ITG is stronger, while the RSAE effects on the ITG are weaker. This work highlights the importance of cross-scale coupling in the dynamics of the AE turbulence and EP transport.

Physics↗
NASA NTRS2016

Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) Spacecraft Lithium Ion Battery Micro-Cycling Investigation

The Global Precipitation Measurement (GPM) spacecraft was jointly developed by NASA and JAXA. It is a Low Earth Orbit (LEO) spacecraft launched on February 27, 2014. The power system is a Direct Energy Transfer (DET) system designed to support 1950 watts orbit average power. The batteries use SONY 18650HC cells and consist of three 8s by 84p batteries operated in parallel as a single battery. During instrument integration with the spacecraft, large current transients were observed in the battery. Investigation into the matter traced the cause to the Dual-Frequency Precipitation Radar (DPR) phased array radar which generates cyclical high rate current transients on the spacecraft power bus. The power system electronics interaction with these transients resulted in the current transients in the battery. An accelerated test program was developed to bound the effect, and to assess the impact to the mission.

Lithium Ion Battery Performance↗
DOE OSTI2026

Application of Ibuprofen Sodium Dihydrate for Thermochemical Energy Storage

Thermochemical energy storage (TCES) offers a transformative approach to address grid instability by harnessing reversible chemical reactions for efficient heat storage and release. Here, we introduce pharmaceutical organic salt hydrates as a class of materials with exceptional performance for low-grade waste heat recovery. We demonstrate ibuprofen sodium dihydrate (ISD) as an example organic hydrate exhibiting a dehydration temperature range of 60-110 °C and a remarkable dehydration enthalpy of up to 59.5 kJ/mol of water, ideally suited for capturing industrial and residential waste heat. Using rigorous multimodal characterization, including thermogravimetric analysis, differential scanning calorimetry, in-situ FTIR, in-situ PXRD, and NMR, we demonstrate ISD's superior thermal, chemical, and structural stability over 150 hydration-dehydration cycles, achieving an unprecedented cycling efficiency of ~99.9%. Compared to conventional inorganic salt hydrates like strontium chloride hexahydrate and calcium oxalate monohydrate, ISD showcases enhanced durability without deliquescence or pulverization, even under high-humidity conditions. In-situ analyses confirm the transition from ISD to ibuprofen sodium anhydrous (ISA) proceeds with structural reorganization, thereby combining the dehydration mechanism with phase transitions, resulting in higher energy storage capacity. Microstructural analyses reveal that repeated water intercalation and structural transitions aid in creating significant porosity that enhances water transport kinetics, further improving the hydration/dehydration performance. By combining the phase change and chemical dehydration mechanisms, ISD paves the way for designing a new class of organic salt hydrates, offering tunable properties to meet diverse thermal energy storage demands and supporting sustainable grid resilience.

Thangaraj, Kavin C.↗
DOE OSTI2018

Tracing Phase Transformation and Lattice Evolution in a TRIP Sheet Steel under High-Temperature Annealing by Real-Time In Situ Neutron Diffraction

Real-time in situ neutron diffraction was used to characterize the crystal structure evolution in a transformation-induced plasticity (TRIP) sheet steel during annealing up to 1000 °C and then cooling to 60 °C. Based on the results of full-pattern Rietveld refinement, critical temperature regions were determined in which the transformations of retained austenite to ferrite and ferrite to high-temperature austenite during heating and the transformation of austenite to ferrite during cooling occurred, respectively. The phase-specific lattice variation with temperature was further analyzed to comprehensively understand the role of carbon diffusion in accordance with phase transformation, which also shed light on the determination of internal stress in retained austenite. These results prove the technique of real-time in situ neutron diffraction as a powerful tool for heat treatment design of novel metallic materials.

Yu, Dunji [ORNL] (ORCID:0000000189467851)↗
DOE OSTI2026

Numerical Investigation of Fluid Flow and Space Charge in Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) Detectors

Overview This project focused on developing a high-fidelity numerical framework to simulate the multiphysics environment within Liquid Argon Time Projection Chamber (LArTPC) detectors. The primary objective was to characterize the complex interplay between ion transport, background fluid dynamics, and electric field distortions—a critical factor for the calibration and sensitivity of next-generation High Energy Physics experiments, such as DUNE. Technical Achievements The research successfully yielded a hybrid numerical space-charge solver utilizing a Cell-Centered Finite Volume Method (FVM) for ion transport coupled with a Finite Element Method (FEM) for electric potential. Key accomplishments include: • Verification & Validation: The 3-D solver was rigorously verified against 1-D analytical solutions, demonstrating high numerical accuracy in predicting space-charge-induced field deviations. • Field Distortion Analysis: 3D simulations revealed that space charge effects introduce significant non-uniformities in the electric field. Critically, the research identified that background LAr flow velocities, when comparable to ion drift velocities, markedly exacerbate these distortions. • Technology Transfer: The resulting source code and comprehensive user manuals were successfully transferred to collaborators at Fermilab, providing a portable computational tool for the broader scientific community. Challenges and Future Directions While the space-charge solver achieved all performance metrics, the integrated fluid dynamics modeling encountered convergence challenges stemming from the extreme 200-fold disparity in length scales between the detector's 37 mm inlet pipes and the 8-meter global domain. To address this, the project has identified a clear technical pivot toward Hierarchical Geometric Adaptive Mesh Refinement (HG-AMR). By implementing an h-type refinement strategy with hanging nodes, future iterations of this solver will be capable of resolving localized high-gradient inlet flows without the prohibitive computational costs of regular grids. This advancement, combined with data-driven uncertainty quantification based on MicroBooNE-style calibration, will enable the precise modeling of detector responses in large-scale cryogenic environments where direct measurement remains difficult. Impact The computational tools developed under this award provide a foundation for enhancing the energy resolution and spatial reconstruction of noble liquid detectors. By bridging the gap between theoretical fluid dynamics and experimental field calibration, this work supports the DOE’s mission to advance the frontiers of neutrino physics and dark matter detection.

42 ENGINEERING↗
NASA NTRS1994

Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE)

Results are reported of the Surface Tension Driven Convection Experiment (STDCE) aboard the USML-1 (first United States Microgravity Laboratory) Spacelab which was launched on June 25, 1992. In the experiment 10 cSt silicone oil was placed in an open circular container which was 10 cm wide by 5 cm deep. The fluid was heated either by a cylindrical heater (1.11 cm dia.) located along the container centerline or by a CO 2 laser beam to induce thermocapillary flow. The flow field was studied by flow visualization. Several thermistor probes were placed in the fluid to measure the temperature distribution. The temperature distribution along the liquid free surface was measured by an infrared imager. Tests were conducted over a range of heating powers, laser beam diameters, and free surface shapes. In conjunction with the experiments an extensive numerical modeling of the flow was conducted. In this paper some results of the velocity and temperature measurements with flat and curved free surfaces are presented and they are shown to agree well with the numerical predictions.

S Ostrach↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Spacecraft Fire Safety Predictions using Verified Saffire Model

A model developed using Fire Dynamics Simulator (FDS) that aimed to determine the effect of a fire in a spacecraft was validated by data collected during the Saffire campaign. The model used inlet and outlet temperatures and CO 2 concentrations of the Saffire payload where fire spread was taking place to determine the amount of heat and combustion products that made it into Northrop Grumman’s Cygnus vehicle. The model was then validated using six remote sensors in various places in the vehicle, as well as a far field device (FFD) in the open zenith section that was representative of average vehicle values. The current work focuses on using the model to predict fire safety scenarios. One simulation aimed to determine the fate of HCl, which sticks to surfaces. The model prediction showed that the HCl was removed from the atmosphere rapidly. This compared well against the FFD data in the Saffire VI campaign event where a bottle of 5% HCl was released into the vehicle. An additional simulation where the Environmental Control and Life Support System (ECLSS) was shut off once the FFD reached 5 ppm of HCl showed that HCl stayed in the atmosphere considerably longer. Continuing the simulation with the ECLSS activated and after temperatures returned to their initial conditions, resulted in a rapid removal of HCL similar to that observed in the original HCl release scenario model. Finally, a simulation that used the heat release rate from a lithium-ion battery test to determine the effect it would have on a spacecraft was performed. This simulation used a heat addition rate that is considerably higher than what was determined from the burning of solid fuels in the Saffire campaign and hence produced a non-trivial temperature increase in more locations within the vehicle.

Fire Safety↗
NASA NTRS2026

Microstructural Evolution and Mechanical Properties of LP-DED NASA HR-1 – A Hydrogen Resistant AM Superalloy for Space Propulsion Applications

The National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) has actively pursued metal additive manufacturing (AM) technologies for spaceflight applications since the late 2000s. AM offers transformative advantages in cost, schedule, part consolidation, and design flexibility. Among the various AM techniques, laser powder directed energy deposition (LP-DED) is particularly well suited for fabricating complex geometries with fine feature resolution. In propulsion systems that utilize high-pressure gaseous hydrogen—such as liquid hydrogen rocket engines—hydrogen environment embrittlement (HEE) presents a serious threat to material performance 1,2 . Mechanical property degradation under these conditions can compromise component reliability, especially under cyclic loading. To address this challenge, NASA developed NASA HR-1 (Hydrogen Resistant-1) as a solution for liquid rocket engine components operating in hydrogen-rich environments, using the LP-DED technique 3-9 . A key component in a liquid rocket engine is the exhaust nozzle, which is typically regeneratively cooled (regen) due to the high heat flux. NASA HR-1 was specifically developed for regen nozzle applications using hydrogen as a propellant, providing resistance to HEE, a critical issue for many materials. The AM version of NASA HR-1 was also formulated to achieve high ultimate tensile strength, along with high yield strength and ductility in this environment 5,6 . Low-cycle fatigue (LCF) is another important consideration in nozzle design, as components are expected to endure multiple starts and missions. Additionally, the LP-DED version of the alloy exhibits improved thermal conductivity compared to its wrought counterpart, which benefits nozzle cooling. Overall, NASA HR-1 offers an excellent balance of high strength, HEE resistance, LCF performance, thermal conductivity, and ductility to meet the demanding requirements of channel-cooled nozzles and other components used with hydrogen and other propellants. The LP-DED–processed NASA HR-1 requires several post-processing heat treatment steps to achieve the material properties desirable for its intended application 6 . These steps include stress relief, homogenization, solution annealing, and aging for precipitation hardening. The stress relief treatment mitigates residual stresses accumulated during the LP-DED process and minimizes the potential for distortion. Homogenization, a common step for AM materials, reduces elemental segregation and promotes recrystallization to develop a more equiaxed grain structure. The subsequent solution annealing treatment heats the part to a solid solution temperature to dissolve the undesirable η-phase that forms during cooling from homogenization, followed by rapid cooling to retain an η-phase–free microstructure. Finally, aging promotes precipitation of the strengthening γ′ phase in the alloy. The integration of compositional design and optimized thermal processing enables high-quality LP-DED NASA HR-1 components with excellent microstructural and mechanical stability. Improved chemical and microstructure homogeneity enhances ductility and fatigue resistance—both critical for safe and reliable operation in high-pressure hydrogen environments. NASA has successfully fabricated and hot-fire tested multiple subscale and full-scale channel wall nozzles using LP-DED NASA HR-1 5,6, 9-14 . These efforts included process refinements to support thin-wall construction and various channel geometries. Throughout development, several key observations emerged. After homogenization, the as-built columnar grain structure transforms into a fully equiaxed microstructure. However, subsequent treatments—such as solution annealing and aging—result in changes that are more difficult to track. The grain structure remains largely unchanged, and the γ′ precipitates, typically 5–10 nm in diameter, are beyond the resolution of scanning electron microscopy (SEM). While transmission electron microscopy (TEM) can resolve these fine precipitates, TEM sample preparation is time-consuming and difficult for LP-DED material. As an alternative, differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) offers a useful, qualitative approach to monitor precipitate evolution throughout different stages of heat treatment. The overall goal is to improve the understanding of how heat treatment affects the microstructure and mechanical performance of LP-DED NASA HR-1. This paper presents heat treatment design considerations, microstructural characterization, mechanical testing – including tensile and LCF testing in both air and hydrogen environments.

Superalloy↗
NASA NTRS1993

Design Criteria for Integrated Flight/Propulsion Control Systems for STOVL Fighter Aircraft

As part of NASA's program to develop technology for short takeoff and vertical landing (STOVL) fighter aircraft, control system designs have been developed for a conceptual STOVL aircraft. This aircraft is representative of the class of mixed-flow remote-lift concepts that was identified as the preferred design approach by the US/UK STOVL Joint Assessment and Ranking Team. The control system designs have been evaluated throughout the powered-lift flight envelope on Ames Research Center's Vertical Motion Simulator. Items assessed in the control system evaluation were: maximum control power used in transition and vertical flight, control system dynamic response associated with thrust transfer for attitude control, thrust margin in the presence of ground effect and hot gas ingestion, and dynamic thrust response for the engine core. Effects of wind, turbulence, and ship airwake disturbances are incorporated in the evaluation. Results provide the basis for a reassessment of existing flying qualities design criteria applied to STOVL aircraft.

James A Franklin↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Carbon Fiber Composite Processing Using Isothermal Resins

To meet future demand for single-aisle composite aircraft production, manufacturing rates are expected to increase by up to six times current production rates. Resin infusion is a manufacturing method that has potential to enable fabrication of structures at the desired rates. However, production cycle times with currently available commercial infusion resins cannot support the rates needed for an estimated 80 aircraft per month. Recently, rapid-curing isothermal resins were developed that can reduce the overall processing time. These resins can be infused, cured, and demolded at a single temperature below 100 °C, thereby eliminating the need for time consuming temperature ramps and shortening the overall cure time. In addition, the low temperatures enable use of low-cost tooling during production. This presentation will discuss the use of resin transfer molding to produce composites with rapid-curing isothermal resins, manufacturing considerations, and performance characteristics of the composites.

John M Gardner↗
DOE OSTI2025

Recrystallization, cracking, and erosion of dispersoid-strengthened tungsten materials during exposure to divertor plasmas

In this study, we investigated the effects of combined intense particle and heat flux exposure on advanced tungsten plasma-facing materials within the DIII-D fusion facility. Our test matrix included two types of dispersoid-strengthened tungsten (containing either 100 nm diameter TiO 2 or Ni particles), along with high-purity polycrystalline tungsten as a reference. This experiment relied on a sample geometry angled at 15° relative to the divertor surface, thereby allowing the surfaces to intercept steady-state perpendicular heat fluxes (q ⟂ ) ranging from 10.1 to 19.6 MW/m 2 . During each shot, the samples were exposed to 42 Hz edge-localized modes (ELMs), allowing us to test the material response to transient heating. We correlated the exposure conditions with extensive post-test surface composition analysis and microscopy to determine how the plasma modified each surface. The angled specimens closest to the strike point received the highest combined heat and particle flux and melted midway through the experiment. EBSD analysis revealed they were completely recrystallized throughout, with an average grain size >100 µm. On the other hand, the specimens that received a lower steady state heat flux survived with more superficial surface damage. Whereas the high-purity polycrystalline tungsten exhibited a higher surface roughness, the dispersoid-strengthened material exhibited more extensive shallow inter-granular cracking. In addition, the surface was depleted of dispersoids following plasma exposure, possibly because of evaporation and/or sputtering. The results described here provide insights into the performance of these materials in a fusion environment which can guide further optimization for use in long-pulse devices.

Kolasinski, Robert D. [Sandia National Laboratorie↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Multiscale Modeling of Fracture Strength in Fibrous Thermal Protection System Materials

This work presents a multiscale modeling approach to predict the fracture strength of fibrous Thermal Protection System (TPS) materials. The model assumes that system failure is initiated at the joints between individual fibers. We investigated three distinct TPS compositions: amorphous silica, alumina and aluminosilicate fibers. Molecular dynamics (MD) simulations were employed to determine the fracture strength values of these fiber joints for both material systems. These fracture strength values were then integrated into simulations of 3D randomly populated fiber structures, where tensile load transfer occurs through the fiber joints. These microscale properties are upscaled through a renormalization approach [1] to predict macroscale tensile strength of 3D random fiber networks, accounting for joint-dominated failure and effective load-bearing area. The study concludes by demonstrating the resulting strength variation as a function of material composition, fiber density, and morphology. We also show validation of results by comparing them against explicit fiber finite element (FE) modeling [2] where fiber joint fracture is represented by cohesive elements.

Jaehyun Cho↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Thermal Analysis of the Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) Power Electronic Modules

In an effort to transform future space power system architectures and operations, the Advanced Modular Power Systems (AMPS) project is currently developing an interface standard for power electronic modules to enable modular architectures for space power systems. Each architecture would consist of one or more modular electronic units (MEU) that would comprise of a tailored combination of modules. The standard currently comprises modules enabling switchgear, power conversion, and data interfacing. The objective of the AMPS project is to enable the modularity and interchangeability of different architectures using these standardized modules in hopes of reducing complexity and cost, increasing inherent redundancy and reliability, and minimizing power system redesign for future programs. A key enabler to these future modular architectures will be the thermal management system, which has to contend with acquiring heat from the electronics modules at the card level and then transporting that heat to the radiator of the larger system. The focus of this paper, therefore, will be the thermal design and analysis of multiple AMPS power electronics modules and the development of their thermal-vacuum test.

Modular Power Electronics↗
DOE OSTI2025

Thermo-Mechanical Phase-Field Modeling of Fracture in High-Burnup UO2 Fuels Under Transient Conditions

This study presents a novel multiphysics phase-field fracture model to analyze high-burnup uranium dioxide (UO2) fuel behavior under transient reactor conditions. Fracture is treated as a stochastic phase transition, which inherently accounts for the random microstructural effects that lead to variations in the value of fracture strength. Moreover, the model takes into consideration the effects of temperature and burnup on thermal conductivity. Therefore, the model is able to predict crack initiation, propagation, and complex morphologies in response to thermal gradients and stress distributions. Several simulations were conducted to investigate the effects of operational and transient conditions on fracture behavior and the resulting cracking patterns. High-burnup fuels exhibit reduced thermal conductivity, elevating temperature gradients and resulting in extensive radial and circumferential cracks. Transient heating rates and temperatures significantly affect fracture patterns, with higher heating rates generating steeper gradients and more irregular crack trajectories. This approach provides critical insights into fuel integrity during accident scenarios and supports the safety evaluation of extended burnup limits.

Chemistry↗
DOE OSTI2026

Thermal property characterization of phase change materials in building applications: A systematic review of fundamentals, recent progress, and future directions

Phase change materials (PCMs) can reduce building peak loads and enable demand-responsive thermal energy storage (TES), but their deployment depends on reliable measurement and interpretation of thermal properties across laboratory, intermediate, and application scales. Here, this review systematically examines characterization methods, testing protocols, and recent advances for neat PCMs and PCM composites, emphasizing thermal conductivity, enthalpy-related properties (phase change temperature, latent heat, specific heat), and cycling stability. For thermal conductivity, we compare steady-state and transient techniques and note limitations when phase transition and contact resistance affect measurements. For enthalpy–temperature characterization, we discuss differential scanning calorimetry together with intermediate- and bulk-scale methods, including T-history, heat flow meter testing, and three-layer calorimetry (3LC), to generate application-relevant enthalpy–temperature profiles. Cycling stability is organized into four experimental families: thermoelectric–air, fully thermoelectric, water-bath, and in situ chamber approaches, with attention to separating reversible supercooling from true degradation such as phase segregation. We highlight emerging noncontact diagnostics, including infrared thermography and embedded sensing, for spatially resolved validation and multiscale interpretation. Finally, we review the growing use of AI and machine learning for property prediction, inverse characterization from experimental signals, and real-time state estimation in building-integrated TES. Key needs include harmonized protocols, interlaboratory benchmarking, uncertainty reporting, and metadata-rich datasets to accelerate reproducible PCM qualification for grid-flexible buildings.

AI↗
DOE OSTI2026

A Probabilistic Approach to Load Modeling for Central HVAC Systems in Large Commercial Buildings for Retrofit Decisions Under Uncertainty

Retrofitting central HVAC systems in large commercial buildings with advanced technologies like heat recovery chillers (HRCs) offers a significant opportunity to enhance energy efficiency. However, analyzing these retrofits is challenging with traditional whole-building simulation tools, which require intensive calibration and struggle to model innovative system configurations and controls. To overcome these limitations, this study proposes a load profilebased retrofit analysis framework that provides better decisions under uncertainty. The main focus of this paper is the development of a probabilistic load profile model that can be used in the framework by using exploratory data analysis (EDA) of measured building data to properly quantify its inherent variability. A non-parametric Gaussian Process (GP) model was employed to capture the time- and weather-dependent characteristics of the heating load while explicitly modeling its uncertainty. The model's effectiveness is demonstrated through strong predictive performance on unseen data and physically interpretable insights into load behavior. This data-driven, probabilistic load profile serves as a robust and flexible input for subsequent system simulations, enabling a more confident and statistically sound analysis of retrofit potential.

Ham, S W↗