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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 325 records · Page 18
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2023

Using long‐term data from a whole ecosystem warming experiment to identify best spring and autumn phenology models

Abstract Predicting vegetation phenology in response to changing environmental factors is key in understanding feedbacks between the biosphere and the climate system. Experimental approaches extending the temperature range beyond historic climate variability provide a unique opportunity to identify model structures that are best suited to predicting phenological changes under future climate scenarios. Here, we model spring and autumn phenological transition dates obtained from digital repeat photography in a boreal Picea ‐ Sphagnum bog in response to a gradient of whole ecosystem warming manipulations of up to +9°C, using five years of observational data. In spring, seven equally best‐performing models for Larix utilized the accumulation of growing degree days as a common driver for temperature forcing. For Picea , the best two models were sequential models requiring winter chilling before spring forcing temperature is accumulated. In shrub, parallel models with chilling and forcing requirements occurring simultaneously were identified as the best models. Autumn models were substantially improved when a CO 2 parameter was included. Overall, the combination of experimental manipulations and multiple years of observations combined with variation in weather provided the framework to rule out a large number of candidate models and to identify best spring and autumn models for each plant functional type.

Schädel, Christina↗
DOE OSTI2025

Synchronous Machine Governor Upgrade

Conventional generation sources play a critical role in the stability and reliability of the electrical grid, particularly as we transition towards more renewable energy sources. To understand and accurately emulate their behavior for optimizing grid operations and ensuring seamless integration with renewable technologies, it is essential to better emulate the grid- and plant-level impacts of conventional generation sources, such as natural gas (NG) driven heat recovery steam generators (HRSGs) and combustion turbines (CTs). Therefore, a governor model is developed in a programmable logic controller (PLC) to investigate the performance of the conventional generator under various dynamic operating conditions and to identify the impact on grid stability in a controlled environment. The governor model aims to enable the hardware-in-the-loop (HIL) based emulation of these conventional generation sources using the existing 2 MVA synchronous machine/generator that is driven by a flexible 2.5 MW variable speed drive. This setup will allow us to replicate the dynamic characteristics and response behaviors of NG-driven HRSGs and CTs. The controls for the emulated conventional plants follow the industry standard and are adjustable, ensuring they accurately reflect the operational capabilities and limitations of real-world systems. These controls include load-following capabilities, ramp rates, startup and shutdown sequences, and emissions characteristics. By incorporating these adjustable controls, we aim to capture the nuanced impacts of conventional generation, such as their ability to provide ancillary services like frequency regulation, voltage support, and spinning reserve. In this report, we simulate two types of dynamic operations: grid-connected and islanding. For each dynamic operation, representative starting sequences are tested, including turbine purge, ignition, speed ramping up, generator excitation and synchronizing, and breaker close. The HIL based tests provides insights for field deployment, specifically the high-fidelity governor model provides results to predict the potential stability and reliability risk and suggest possible integration measures (e.g., generation and load balancing, tuning of governor control parameters). Ultimately, this enhanced emulation capability will be integrated into our Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems (ARIES), enabling us to conduct comprehensive studies on the interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources. By better understanding these interactions, we can develop strategies to optimize the overall performance and reliability of the grid. This will support the deployment of advanced grid management techniques, such as demand response, grid-forming inverters, and energy storage systems. The main contributions are summarized as follows: (1) This report introduces a PLC-based governor model for gas turbines. This model accurately simulates the dynamic behavior of conventional generation sources under various operational scenarios; (2) The model is integrated with an HIL testbed that includes a 2.5 MW variable speed drive and a 2 MVA synchronous machine. This setup enables realistic, real-time emulation of conventional power plants, particularly NG driven HRSGs and CTs; (3) The developed model is adaptable to various gas turbine configurations and allows for precise control over parameters such as MW ramp rates. This flexibility makes it a valuable tool for future research and industry collaboration; and (4) By incorporating the model into the National Renewable Energy Laboratory's Advanced Research on Integrated Energy Systems, the report lays the groundwork for future studies on interactions between conventional and renewable energy sources, enhancing the ability to develop advanced grid management strategies.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2025

Core-edge integrated predictive studies of ST40 and NSTX plasmas with the scrape-off layer box model

The ability to model the interplay between the core and edge of tokamak plasmas is crucial to designing both the plasma operating scenario of a fusion pilot plant and the design of the tokamak itself. Scrape-off-layer (SOL) models that are tailored to integrated scenario modeling need to have fast turn-around time and minimal computational burden to enable wide parameter-space coverage for design scoping. The SOL 0-D Box model is a reduced SOL model based on global power and particle balance that captures the essential physics of SOL transport with little computational cost. The usage of the 0-D Box model in core-edge coupled simulations has been demonstrated in both interpretive and predictive modes on a variety of devices. This paper presents a sensitivity study of the 0-D Box model to the input SOL heat-flux width for an ST40 plasma. This study demonstrates that accurate prediction of this width is crucial to predicting global performance parameters of a plasma scenario, such as energy confinement time and flux consumption. We also present an extension of the Box model to 1-D to allow for parallel variation of plasma parameters along the magnetic field lines. The 1-D Box model is then compared with SOLPS-ITER simulations of an NSTX plasma. Advantages and limitations of the Box model are discussed, and future directions are outlined.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Modeling Summary of ASNF in DOE Sealed Standard Canisters

A pathway for road-ready and final disposition packaging configurations for the aluminum-clad spent nuclear fuel (ANSF) fuel dictates storage within helium backfilled sealed DOE standard canisters. The typical packaging configuration for the 15-foot DOE canisters places 10 advance test reactor (ATR) elements within a Type 1a basket, and three baskets are loaded within each DOE canister. During in-reactor operations and cooling pond storage conditions, oxyhydroxide layers form on the surface of the aluminum clad fuel. These layers produce hydrogen gas over time due to the fuel’s radiation field. As part of the packing procedure, the ATR fuel should be dried to remove any residual physio-/chemi- sorbed water bound to the surface. The results of this modeling will include results at fully saturated and fully dried conditions. In addition, fuels that are currently stored at the Savannah River Site were also studied for their potential for hydrogen and pressure build up. These two additional fuels modeled were the Missouri University Research Reactor (MURR) fuel, which is packaged in the same configuration as the ATR, but with a 10-foot-tall DOE standard canister. This was selected due to its relatively high decay heat compared to other DOE-managed ASNF. The second additional fuel studied with the modeling effort was the High Flux Isotope Reactor (HFIR) fuel. This fuel is modeled as two separate DOE canisters with the inner and outer annulus split for storage. The HFIR was selected for study due to its high aluminum cladding surface area. In the associated experimental work, Task 2 - Oxyhydroxide Layer Radiolytic Gas Generation Resolution, additional tests were completed in a helium environment, and updated G-values for the radiolytic production of hydrogen from the oxyhydroxide layers were provided. These values were 2.92 ×10 -4 µmol/J at 50% relative humidity and 4.12 ×10 -4 µmol/J at 100% relative humidity. These values are lower than the value for Argon that was used in prior modeling results. In addition, prior modeling results have been completed with the G-value applied to just the mass of the corrosion layer, and this has been updated to apply the G-value for hydrogen generation to the full mass of the fuel. These two effects combine to show much smaller pressure and hydrogen build up for the sealed canister model. For a nominal scenario of stored ATR fuel, after 50 years the model results give a 1.36 atm total pressure, 7% mole percent hydrogen, for the upper decay heat, 1.51 atm total pressure, 16% mole percent hydrogen, and for upper decay heat with undried fuel 2.6 atm total pressure, 15% mole percent hydrogen. For the MURR nominal case, the model results give 1.34 atm and 6% hydrogen, for upper decay heat this gives 1.41 atm total pressure with 10.8 % hydrogen, and for upper decay heat with undried fuel, this gives 2.38 atm total pressure with 9.9% hydrogen. The nominal scenario for HFIR fuel gives 1.39 atm total pressure with 9.9% hydrogen, the upper decay heat case gives 1.43 atm with 12.1% hydrogen, and the upper decay heat with undried fuel gives 2.17 atm total pressure with 11.9% hydrogen. These results confirm the ATR scenario bounds the other intact ASNF modeled here. No case modeled yields significant oxygen, and the lower decay heat cases for all fuels modeled have hydrogen concentrations that are under the 4% flammability limit after 50 years of storage. In addition, the modeled pressures for all cases are all significantly below the 500-psi limit for the DOE standard sealed canister.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Benchmarking (Rev. 3)

A benchmarking analysis of RTES research funded by GTO through the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted against the ESGC to see where they fit within the identified ESGC Use Cases. The projects were found to advance knowledge in multiple ESGC use cases, either directly or in some cases, indirectly as enabling technologies. This analysis is helpful to understand where RTES and associated research fits into the larger discussion around energy storage technologies. Also, a retrospective analysis of the Beyond Batteries projects was conducted to evaluate what the projects learned and how the results can be applied to advance the value of RTES. Major results of each of the studies are summarized in Table 2. Additionally, a comparative metrics analysis for RTES was completed to understand where RTES lies within the energy storage industry. Metrics for evaluation of RTES and its comparison to other storage technologies were selected and ranges of their values compiled. The selected metrics – LCOE (levelized cost of energy), capital costs, roundtrip efficiency, energy storage capacity, and storage time – were chosen based on data availability and have a particularly strong influence on the potential deployment of a storage technology. Charts which compare the metrics are presented in section 4.3 and show ranges for each of the 10 selected technologies. However, due to a lack of domestic operational facilities, values for RTES and for portions of the remaining technologies are based on theoretical modeling and studies of best-case scenarios. LCOE estimates for RTES fall within the lower reaches of Figure 15, but nevertheless amount to 2 – 5 times the ESGC Roadmap goal for LCOE, for example in the Facilitating and Evolving Grid Use Case. Capital costs for RTES sit on the higher end (Figure 16) but are expected to decrease as new projects are developed and the technology is refined. The theoretical roundtrip efficiency reported for RTES varies from mid to high percentages (Figure 17) with efficiencies upwards of 93% in modeled scenarios in the Portland Basin (Bershaw et al.,2020). RTES is also expected to have the largest energy storage capacities and longest storage times, likely matched only by lower efficiency hydrogen storage. To better assess the role that RTES could play in energy storage we examined it’s potential in the U.S. The potential depends on many factors. Recently, many researchers have started looking at deep sedimentary basins, depleted oil and gas fields, and basalt formations as potential targets for RTES development. The United States Geological Survey (USGS) has analyzed various cities and shown substantial RTES potential in the cooling sector (Pepin et al., 2021). By modeling RTES in low-quality groundwater (e.g., brackish), it is shown to be favorable across the U.S. with particular suitability in the Illinois Basin, Coastal Plains, and Basin and Range regions. Seasonal RTES operations have also been modeled in the Portland Basin by those at the USGS and Portland State University to simulate an RTES system supplying heating loads needed for the Oregon Health and Science University. Simulations suggest that high conductive heat loss in the initial years exists but tends to decrease with increasing time and development of the resource due to self-insulating nature of the basalts (Burns et al., 2020). Other national laboratory efforts are taking a close look at many of the technical issues involved with RTES (McLing et al., 2019, McLing et al., 2022). These include difficulties in understanding geochemical, hydrogeological, mechanical, and microbiological changes at such elevated temperatures and operational scenarios. Major gaps in research are identified and suggested for future work. With this increased focus to understand how to make RTES successful in the U.S., this technology could be a potential solution to many of the nation’s energy storage problems. For the energy independence of this country, the DOE should prioritize de-risking this technology by making future investments in pilot-scale demonstrations to attract potential investors.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2024

SCALE Analyses of Scenarios in the High-Temperature Gas-Cooled Reactor Fuel Cycle

This report demonstrates the SCALE code system’s capabilities in modeling and simulating scenarios in the High-Temperature Gas-cooled Reactor (HTGR) nuclear fuel cycle as part of a United States Nuclear Regulatory Commission (NRC) project that aims to demonstrate the capabilities of the SCALE and MELCOR codes for non-light water reactor (non-LWR) modeling and simulation.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2022

The development and use of decision support framework for informing selection of select agent toxins with modelling studies to inform permissible toxin amounts

Many countries have worked diligently to establish and implement policies and processes to regulate high consequence pathogens and toxins that could have a significant public health impact if misused. In the United States, the Antiterrorism and Effective Death Penalty Act of 1996 (Public Law 104-132, 1996), as amended by the Bioterrorism Preparedness and Response Act of 2002 (Public Law 107-188, 2002) requires that the Department of Health and Human Services (HHS) [through the Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC)] establish a list of bacteria, viruses, and toxins that have the potential to pose a severe threat to public health and safety. Currently, this list is reviewed and updated on a biennial basis using input from subject matter experts (SMEs). We have developed decision support framework (DSF) approaches to facilitate selection of select toxins and, where toxicity data are known, conducted modelling studies to inform selection of toxin amounts that should be excluded from select agent regulations. Exclusion limits allow laboratories to possess toxins under an established limit to support their research or teaching activities without the requirement to register with the Federal Select Agent Program. Fact sheets capturing data from a previously vetted SME workshop convened by CDC, literature review and SME input were developed to assist in evaluating toxins using the DSF approach. The output of the DSF analysis agrees with the current select toxin designations, and no other toxins evaluated in this study were recommended for inclusion on the select agent and toxin list. To inform the selection of exclusion limits, attack scenarios were developed to estimate the amount of toxin needed to impact public health. Scenarios consisted of simulated aerosol releases of a toxin in high-population-density public facilities and the introduction of a toxin into a daily consumable product supply chain. Using published inhalation and ingestion median toxic dose (TD 50 ) and median lethal dose (LD 50 ) values, where available, a range of toxin amounts was examined to estimate the number of people exposed to these amounts in these scenarios. Based on data generated by these models, we proposed toxin exclusion values corresponding to levels below those that would trigger a significant public health response (i.e., amounts estimated to expose up to ten people by inhalation or one hundred people by ingestion to LD 50 or TD 50 levels of toxin in the modeled scenarios).

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Twin sterile neutrino dark matter

We propose that the dark matter of our Universe could be sterile neutrinos which reside within the twin sector of a mirror twin Higgs model. In our scenario, these particles are produced through a version of the Dodelson-Widrow mechanism that takes place entirely within the twin sector, yielding a dark matter candidate that is consistent with x-ray and gamma-ray line constraints. Furthermore, this scenario can naturally avoid the cosmological problems that are typically encountered in mirror twin Higgs models. In particular, if the sterile neutrinos in the Standard Model sector decay out of equilibrium, they can heat the Standard Model bath and reduce the contributions of the twin particles to N eff . Such decays also reduce the effective temperature of the dark matter, thereby relaxing constraints from large-scale structure. The sterile neutrinos included in this model are compatible with the seesaw mechanism for generating Standard Model neutrino masses. Published by the American Physical Society 2024

72 PHYSICS OF ELEMENTARY PARTICLES AND FIELDS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Fusing time-varying mosquito data and continuous mosquito population dynamics models

Climate change is arguably one of the most pressing issues affecting the world today and requires the fusion of disparate data streams to accurately model its impacts. Mosquito populations respond to temperature and precipitation in a nonlinear way, making predicting climate impacts on mosquito-borne diseases an ongoing challenge. Data-driven approaches for accurately modeling mosquito populations are needed for predicting mosquito-borne disease risk under climate change scenarios. Many current models for disease transmission are continuous and autonomous, while mosquito data is discrete and varies both within and between seasons. This study uses an optimization framework to fit a non-autonomous logistic model with periodic net growth rate and carrying capacity parameters for 15 years of daily mosquito time-series data from the Greater Toronto Area of Canada. The resulting parameters accurately capture the inter-annual and intra-seasonal variability of mosquito populations within a single geographic region, and a variance-based sensitivity analysis highlights the influence each parameter has on the peak magnitude and timing of the mosquito season. This method can easily extend to other geographic regions and be integrated into a larger disease transmission model. This method addresses the ongoing challenges of data and model fusion by serving as a link between discrete time-series data and continuous differential equations for mosquito-borne epidemiology models.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Renewable Energy Potential Model: Hawaii Geothermal Supply Curves

This dataset extends the development of the Renewable Energy Potential (reV) model to include geothermal energy, with a specific focus on Hawaii. Provided here are the results of two scenarios that were modeled for geothermal energy in Hawaii: binary enhanced geothermal systems (EGS) at a depth of 2.5 km and hydrothermal binary systems at a depth of 1.5 km. The resource data for both scenarios were derived from Lautze and Haskins (2024) using an exponential method. The PFA probability of heat map was used as a look up table for which temperature gradient to use (Lautze and Haskins, 2024). The dataset provides geospatial and techno-economic details for evaluating geothermal energy potential. It includes spatial coordinates, estimated capacity factors, developable area, resource potential, and annual energy production metrics. Economic details such as levelized cost of electricity (LCOE), site development costs, transmission costs, and fixed-charge rates are also included. The reV model, originally developed for wind and solar energy, incorporates these variables to evaluate deployment constraints related to land use, environmental and cultural factors, and grid integration.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2021

Mesoscopic Modeling and Rapid Simulation of Incremental Changes in Epidemic Scenarios on GPUs

In simulation-based studies and analyses of epidemics, a major challenge lies in resolving the conflict between fidelity of models and the speed of their simulation. Another related challenge arises in dealing with the large number of what–if scenarios that need to be explored. Here, we describe new computational methods that together provide an approach to dealing with both challenges. A mesoscopic modeling approach is described that strikes a middle ground between macroscopic models based on coupled differential equations and microscopic models built on fine-grained behaviors at the individual entity level. The mesoscopic approach offers the ability to incorporate complex compositions of multiple layers of dynamics even while retaining the potential for aggregate behaviors at varying levels. It also is an excellent match to the accelerator-based architectures of modern computing platforms in which graphical processing units (GPUs) can be exploited for fast simulation via the parallel execution mode of single instruction multiple thread (SIMT). The challenge of simulating a large number of scenarios is addressed via a method of sharing model state and computation across a tree of what–if scenarios that are localized, incremental changes to a large base simulation. A combination of the mesoscopic modeling approach and the incremental what–if scenario tree evaluation has been implemented in the software on modern GPUs. Synthetic simulation scenarios are presented to demonstrate the computational characteristics of our approach. Results from the experiments with large population data, including USA, UK, and India, illustrate the modeling methodology and computational performance on thousands of synthetically generated what–if scenarios. Execution of our implementation scaled to 8192 GPUs of supercomputing platforms demonstrates the ability to rapidly evaluate what–if scenarios several orders of magnitude faster than the conventional methods.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

Partitioning uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice

Abstract Improved knowledge of the contributing sources of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice over the 21st century is essential for evaluating impacts of a changing Arctic environment. Here, we consider the role of internal variability, model structure and emissions scenario in projections of Arctic sea-ice area (SIA) by using six single model initial-condition large ensembles and a suite of models participating in Phase 5 of the Coupled Model Intercomparison Project. For projections of September Arctic SIA change, internal variability accounts for as much as 40%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade, while emissions scenario dominates uncertainty toward the end of the century. Model structure accounts for 60%–70% of the total uncertainty by mid-century and declines to 30% at the end of the 21st century in the summer months. For projections of wintertime Arctic SIA change, internal variability contributes as much as 50%–60% of the total uncertainty in the next decade and impacts total uncertainty at longer lead times when compared to the summertime. In winter, there exists a considerable scenario dependence of model uncertainty with relatively larger model uncertainty under strong forcing compared to weak forcing. At regional scales, the contribution of internal variability can vary widely and strongly depends on the calendar month and region. For wintertime SIA change in the Greenland-Iceland-Norwegian and Barents Seas, internal variability contributes 60%–70% to the total uncertainty over the coming decades and remains important much longer than in other regions. We further find that the relative contribution of internal variability to total uncertainty is state-dependent and increases as sea ice volume declines. These results demonstrate that internal variability is a significant source of uncertainty in projections of Arctic sea ice.

Bonan, David B. (ORCID:0000000338676009)↗
DOE OSTI2024

Coupled Multiphysics Modeling of Lithium-Ion Batteries for Automotive Crashworthiness Applications

Considerable advances have been made in battery safety models, but achieving predictive accuracy across a wide range of conditions continues to be challenging. Interactions between dynamically evolving mechanical, electrical, and thermal state variables make model prediction difficult during mechanical abuse scenarios. In this study, we develop a physics-based modeling approach that allows for choosing between different mechanical and electrochemical models depending on the required level of analysis. We demonstrate the use of this approach to connect cell-level abuse response to electrode-level and particle-level transport phenomena. A pseudo-two-dimensional model and simplified single-particle models are calibrated to electrical-thermal cycling data and applied to mechanically induced short-circuit scenarios to understand how the choice of electrochemical model affects the model prediction under abuse scenarios. These models are implemented using user-defined subroutines on ls-dyna finite element software and can be coupled with existing automotive crash safety models.

analysis and design of components↗
DOE OSTI2020

Quantitative assessment of eddy viscosity rans models for turbulent mixed convection in a differentially heated plane channel

Turbulent mixed convection between two vertical, infinite parallel plates at different temperatures is studied using various two-equation turbulence models. The numerical simulations are performed at a turbulent Reynolds number of Re τ = 150 and a Grashof number of Gr = 9.6 × 10 5 . Comparisons are made against the highly trusted DNS results. Consistent with the DNS approach, the current simulations are performed using constant properties and the Boussinesq approximation to predict the influence of buoyancy. Previous studies have provided assessments of two-equation turbulence models for various scenarios, but often rely on a qualitative “eye” test in order to determine the most appropriate model to predict a given flow. This study aims to provide a new form of quantitative assessment that accounts for both the physics captured by the turbulence model as well as the magnitude of the system response quantities (SRQ) using a modified symmetric mean absolute percent error (SMAPE) method. This method is designed to be approachable to researchers at any level and can be applied to system response quantities from multiple research fields. Uncertainty quantification is also performed to determine the discretization error for each turbulence model. Recommendations are made as to which turbulence models best capture the physics – hydrodynamically and thermally – using both local and global validation metrics. Lastly, a sensitivity analysis is performed on the damping functions used in the most accurate models. This underpins the potential of model developments and adjustments most worth pursuing for buoyant flows. Finally, this framework provides a more physics-based comparative analysis of the selected turbulence models.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2022

Estimation of China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor performance and burning fraction in different pellet fueling scenarios by a multi-species radial transport model

Tritium self-sufficiency in future deuterium–tritium fusion reactors is a crucial challenge. As an engineering test reactor, the China Fusion Engineering Test Reactor requires a burning fraction of 3% for the goal to test the accessibility to the future fusion plant. To self-consistently simulate burning plasmas with profile changes in pellet injection scenarios and to estimate the corresponding burning fraction, a one-dimensional multi-species radial transport model is developed in the BOUT++ framework. Here several pellet-fueling scenarios are then tested in the model. The results show that the increased fueling depth improves the burning fraction by particle confinement improvement and fusion power increase. Nevertheless, by increasing the depth, the pellet cooling-down may significantly lower the temperature in the core region. Taking the density perturbation into consideration, the reasonable parameters of the fueling scenario in these simulations are estimated as pellet radius ${r}_{{\rm{p}}}=3\,{\rm{mm}},$ injection rate $=\,4\,\mathrm{Hz},$ and pellet injection velocity $=\,1000\mbox{-}2000\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ without drift or $450\,{\rm{m}}\,{{\rm{s}}}^{-1}$ with high-field-side drift.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2027

Nodal capacity expansion planning with flexible large-scale load siting

We propose explicitly incorporating large-scale load siting into a stochastic nodal power system capacity expansion planning model that concurrently co-optimizes generation, transmission, and storage expansion. The potential operational flexibility of some of these large loads is also taken into account by considering them as consisting of a set of tranches with different reliability requirements, which are modeled as a constraint on expected served energy across operational scenarios. We implement our model as a two-stage stochastic mixed-integer optimization problem with cross-scenario expectation constraints. To overcome the challenge of scalability, we build upon existing work to implement this model on a high performance computing platform and exploit scenario parallelization using an augmented Progressive Hedging Algorithm. The algorithm is implemented using the bounding features of mpisppy, which have shown to provide satisfactory provable optimality gaps despite the absence of theoretical guarantees of convergence. We test our approach and assess the value of this proactive planning framework on total system cost and reliability metrics using realistic testcases geographically assigned to San Diego and South Carolina, with datacenter and direct air capture facilities as large loads.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2021

Water balance response of permafrost-affected watersheds to changes in air temperatures

Abstract Observations show increases in river discharge to the Arctic Ocean especially in winter over the last decades but the physical mechanisms driving these changes are not yet fully understood. We hypothesize that even in the absence of a precipitation increase, permafrost degradation alone can lead to increased annual river runoff. To test this hypothesis we perform 12 millennium-long simulations over an idealized hypothetical watershed (1 km 2 ) using a distributed, physically based water balance model (Water flow and Balance Simulation Model, WaSiM). The model is forced by both a hypothetical warming defined by an air temperature increase of 7.5 ∘ C over 100 years, and a corresponding cooling scenario. To assess model sensitivity we vary soil saturated hydraulic conductivity and lateral subsurface flow configuration. Under the warming scenario, changes in subsurface water transport due to ground temperature changes result in a 7%–14% increase in annual runoff accompanied by a 6%–20% decrease in evapotranspiration. The increase in runoff is most pronounced in winter. Hence, the simulations demonstrate that changes in permafrost characteristics due to climate warming and associated changes in evapotranspiration provide a plausible mechanism for the observed runoff increases in Arctic watersheds. In addition, our experiments show that when lateral subsurface moisture transport is not included, as commonly done in global-scale Earth System Models, the equilibrium water balance in response to the warming or cooling is similar to the water balance in simulations where lateral subsurface transport is included. However, the transient changes in water balance components prior to reaching equilibrium differ greatly between the two. For example, for high saturated hydraulic conductivity only when lateral subsurface transport is considered, a period of decreased runoff occurs immediately after the warming. This period is characterized by a positive change in soil moisture storage caused by the soil moisture deficit developed during prior cooling.

Debolskiy, Matvey V. (ORCID:0000000296343627)↗