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The dynamics of warm and cold climates

Changes occurring as a result of climatic warming or cooling are presently investigated by comparing the atmospheric dynamics of five different climate simulations encompassing two ice ages, current and doubled CO2 climates, and a simulation of the warm Cretaceous; a global average surface air temperature range of 13 C is covered by the models. It is noted that many zonally averaged processes do not change systematically as climate changes: the January Hadley cell, the jet stream, mean precipitation patterns, and total atmospheric transport, show very little variation among the different climate simulations. These features result from balances between competing factors; while individual processes differ in the cold and warm climates, there is considerable compensation.

Rind, D.↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Department

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Department (KMD). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the boundary layer of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface within weakly-sheared environments, such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in numerical weather prediction models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-end events over east Africa. KMD currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, invoking the Nonhydrostatic Mesoscale Model (NMM) dynamical core. They make use of the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration / National Weather Service Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the WRF-NMM model runs on a 7-km regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the National Aeronautics and Space Administration Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Short-term Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMD for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR will provide experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMD. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMD-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) will be run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of interpolated Global Forecast System soil moisture and temperature data. Additionally, real-time green vegetation fraction data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite will be incorporated into the KMD-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service. Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMD using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET) package, in order to quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. The transition of these MET tools will enable KMD to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This presentation will highlight preliminary verification results of WRF runs over east Africa using the LIS land surface initialization.

Case. Jonathan↗

Does the ocean-atmosphere system have more than one stable mode of operation?

The climate record obtained from two long Greenland ice cores reveals several brief climate oscillations during glacial time. The most recent of these oscillations, also found in continental pollen records, has greatest impact in the area under the meteorological influence of the northern Atlantic, but none in the United States. This suggests that these oscillations are caused by fluctuations in the formation rate of deep water in the northern Atlantic. As the present production of deep water in this area is driven by an excess of evaporation over precipitation and continental runoff, atmospheric water transport may be an important element in climate change. Changes in the production rate of deep water in this sector of the ocean may push the climate system from one quasi-stable mode of operation to another.

Broecker, W. S.↗

The clear-sky greenhouse effect sensitivity to a sea surface temperature change

The clear-sky greenhouse effect response to a sea surface temperature (SST or Ts) change is studied using outgoing clear-sky longwave radiation measurements from the Earth Radiation Budget Experiment. Considering geographical distributions for July 1987, the relation between the SST, the greenhouse effect (defined as the outgoing infrared flux trapped by atmospheric gases), and the precipitable water vapor content (W), estimated by the Special Sensor Microwave Imager, is analyzed first. A fairly linear relation between W and the normalized greenhouse effect g, is found. On the contrary, the SST dependence of both W and g exhibits nonlinearities with, especially, a large increase for SST above 25 C. This enhanced sensitivity of g and W can be interpreted in part by a corresponding large increase of atmospheric water vapor content related to the transition from subtropical dry regions to equatorial moist regions. Using two years of data (1985 and 1986), the normalized greenhouse effect sensitivity to the sea surface temperature is computed from the interannual variation of monthly mean values.

Duvel, J. PH.↗

The annual pressure cycle on Mars: Results from the LMD Martian atmospheric general circulation model

We have been developing a General Circulation Model (GCM) of the martian atmosphere since 1989. The model has been described rather extensively elsewhere and only the main characteristics are given here. The dynamical part of the model, adapted from the LMD terrestrial climate model, is based on a finite-difference formulation of the classical 'primitive equations of meteorology.' The radiative transfer code includes absorption and emission by CO2 (carefully validated by comparison to line-by-line calculations) and dust in the thermal range and absorption and scattering by dust in the visible range. Other physical parameterizations are included: modeling of vertical turbulent mixing, dry convective adjustment (in order to prevent vertical unstable temperature profiles), and a multilayer model of the thermal conduction in the soil. Finally, the condensation-sublimation of CO2 is introduced through specification of a pressure-dependent condensation temperature. The atmospheric and surface temperatures are prevented from falling below this critical temperature by condensation and direct precipitation onto the surface of atmospheric CO2. The only prespecified spatial fields are the surface thermal inertia, albedo, and topography.

Hourdin, Frederic↗

Maven Observations of Electron-Induced Whistler Mode Waves in the Martian Magnetosphere

We report on narrowband electromagnetic waves at frequencies between the local electron cyclotron and lower hybrid frequencies observed by the Mars Atmosphere and Volatile EvolutioN (MAVEN) spacecraft in the Martian induced magnetosphere. The peaked electric field wave spectra below the electron cyclotron frequency were first observed by Phobos-2 in the Martian magnetosphere, but the lack of magnetic field wave data prevented definitive identification of the wave mode and their generation mechanisms remain unclear. Analysis of electric and magnetic field wave spectra obtained by MAVEN demonstrates that the observed narrowband waves have properties consistent with the whistler mode. Linear growth rates computed from the measured electron velocity distributions suggest that these whistler mode waves can be generated by cyclotron resonance with anisotropic electrons. Large electron anisotropy in the Martian magnetosphere is caused by absorption of parallel electrons by the collisional atmosphere. The narrowband whistler mode waves and anisotropic electrons are observed on both open and closed field lines and have similar spatial distributions in MSO and planetary coordinates. Some of the waves on closed field lines exhibit complex frequency-time structures such as discrete elements of rising tones and two bands above and below half the electron cyclotron frequency. These MAVEN observations indicate that whistler mode waves driven by anisotropic electrons, which are commonly observed in intrinsic magnetospheres and at unmagnetized airless bodies, are also present at Mars. The wave-induced electron precipitation into the Martian atmosphere should be evaluated in future studies.

martian↗

Toward Improved Land Surface Initialization in Support of Regional WRF Forecasts at the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS)

Flooding and drought are two key forecasting challenges for the Kenya Meteorological Service (KMS). Atmospheric processes leading to excessive precipitation and/or prolonged drought can be quite sensitive to the state of the land surface, which interacts with the planetary boundary layer (PBL) of the atmosphere providing a source of heat and moisture. The development and evolution of precipitation systems are affected by heat and moisture fluxes from the land surface, particularly within weakly-sheared environments such as in the tropics and sub-tropics. These heat and moisture fluxes during the day can be strongly influenced by land cover, vegetation, and soil moisture content. Therefore, it is important to represent the land surface state as accurately as possible in land surface and numerical weather prediction (NWP) models. Enhanced regional modeling capabilities have the potential to improve forecast guidance in support of daily operations and high-impact weather over eastern Africa. KMS currently runs a configuration of the Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) NWP model in real time to support its daily forecasting operations, making use of the NOAA/National Weather Service (NWS) Science and Training Resource Center's Environmental Modeling System (EMS) to manage and produce the KMS-WRF runs on a regional grid over eastern Africa. Two organizations at the NASA Marshall Space Flight Center in Huntsville, AL, SERVIR and the Shortterm Prediction Research and Transition (SPoRT) Center, have established a working partnership with KMS for enhancing its regional modeling capabilities through new datasets and tools. To accomplish this goal, SPoRT and SERVIR is providing enhanced, experimental land surface initialization datasets and model verification capabilities to KMS as part of this collaboration. To produce a land-surface initialization more consistent with the resolution of the KMS-WRF runs, the NASA Land Information System (LIS) is run at a comparable resolution to provide real-time, daily soil initialization data in place of data interpolated from the National Centers for Environmental Prediction (NCEP) Global Forecast System (GFS) model soil moisture and temperature fields. Additionally, realtime green vegetation fraction (GVF) data from the Visible Infrared Imaging Radiometer Suite (VIIRS) on the Suomi National Polar-orbiting Partnership (Suomi- NPP) satellite will be incorporated into the KMS-WRF runs, once it becomes publicly available from the National Environmental Satellite Data and Information Service (NESDIS). Finally, model verification capabilities will be transitioned to KMS using the Model Evaluation Tools (MET; Brown et al. 2009) package in conjunction with a dynamic scripting package developed by SPoRT (Zavodsky et al. 2014), to help quantify possible improvements in simulated temperature, moisture and precipitation resulting from the experimental land surface initialization. Furthermore, the transition of these MET tools will enable KMS to monitor model forecast accuracy in near real time. This paper presents preliminary efforts to improve land surface model initialization over eastern Africa in support of operations at KMS. The remainder of this extended abstract is organized as follows: The collaborating organizations involved in the project are described in Section 2; background information on LIS and the configuration for eastern Africa is presented in Section 3; the WRF configuration used in this modeling experiment is described in Section 4; sample experimental WRF output with and without LIS initialization data are given in Section 5; a summary is given in Section 6 followed by acknowledgements and references.

Case, Johnathan L.↗

Statistical retrieval of precipitation cell-top altitude using passive 118-GHz observations

A nonlinear statistical-retrieval operator for precipitation cell-top altitude using high-spatial-resolution passive 118-GHz O2 brightness spectra is demonstrated. The retrieval operator consists of a Karhunen-Loeve transformation followed by a rank reduction, a linearization, and a linear minimum mean-square-error estimator. Information from the 118-GHz data on the ambient atmospheric-temperature profile and the precipitation cell size is also incorporated into the linear stage of the retrieval operator. The rms retrieval error is 1.5 km for cumulus-stage cells with tops ranging from 1.5 to 16 km. The sensitivity of nadiral 118-GHz spectra to the cell-top altitude is predominantly due to the scattering and absorption of radiation originating from low, warm atmospheric levels by colder liquid and frozen precipitation This effect causes cold perturbations in the brightness spectrum, which typically become stronger with increasing cell-top altitude.

Gasiewski, A. J.↗

Towards a Multisensor Approach to Improve on Current TRMM Retrievals of Clouds and Precipitation

The Tropical Rainfall Measuring Mission (TRMM) was designed to measure tropical rainfall and its variation from a low inclination orbiting satellite. The TRMM payload was carefully chosen to overcome a number of limitations of past satellite observing systems. This payload is predicated on the combination of active and passive observations from the TRMM Precipitation Radar (PR) and TRMM Microwave Imager (TMI) and Visible and Infrared Scanner (VIRS). Our research over the past three years has been devoted to the challenge of developing the most effective way of combining complementary information from these sensors to provide the most consistent estimate of precipitation. We have approached this problem from three directions. The first was to carry out preliminary analysis of passive microwave and infrared data from the TMI and VIRS instruments to understand the character of clear and cloudy skies in the basis defined by polarization and brightness temperature differences. Using this information as a foundation, the properties of two retrieval algorithms were analyzed, one for retrieving ice clouds from VIRS that was developed in parallel with this project and the other for rainfall from the TMI. Finally, the knowledge gleaned from each of these studies, coupled with ancillary data from NWP models and a broadband radiative transfer model, was used to create and algorithm for synthesizing the principal components of the Earth's energy budget from the basic building blocks of the atmosphere, gases, clouds, and precipitation. Principal results from each of these areas of research and their role in the TRMM and climate communities are summarized.

Stephens, Graeme L.↗

SMART-COMMIT Observations and Deep-Blue Retrievals of Saharan Dust Properties during NAMMA

Monsoon rainfalls sustain the livelihood of more than half of the world's population. The interaction between natural/anthropogenic aerosols, clouds, and precipitation is a critical mechanism that drives the water cycle and fresh water distribution. Analyses of the longterm trend of July-August precipitation anomaly for the last 50 years in the 20" century depict that the largest regional precipitation deficit occurs over the Sahel, where the monsoon water cycle plays an important role. Thus, it is of paramount importance to study how dust aerosols, as well as air pollution and smoke, influence monsoon variability. The NASA African Monsoon Multidisciplinary Activities (NAMMA) was conducted during the international AMMA Special Observation Period (SOP-3) of September 2006 to better comprehend the key attributes of the Saharan Air Layer (SAL) and how they evolve from the source regions to the Atlantic Ocean. The SAL occurs during the late spring through early fall and originates as a result of low-level convergence induced by heat lows over the Sahara that lifts hot, dry, dust laden air aloft into a well mixed layer that extends up to 500mb. This is crucial for understanding the impact of SAL on the key atmospheric processes that determine precipitation over West Africa and tropical cyclogenesis. Results obtained from the synergy of satellite (Deep- Blue) and surface (SMART-COMMIT) observations will be presented and discussed how the physical, optical and radiative properties of the dust in the SAL evolve from the continental to the marine environment.

Tsay, Si-Chee↗

The Formation of Electron Heat Flux in the Region of Diffuse Aurora

Whistler and electrostatic electron cyclotron harmonics waves are responsible for scattering and precipitating the energetic plasma sheet electrons that drive the diffuse aurora. These primary electrons with energies in the kiloelectron volt range, simultaneously precipitating in magnetically conjugate regions, produce the secondary electron population and can be reflected by the atmosphere back through the magnetosphere and precipitate into the conjugate region with additional follow‐up atmospheric backscatter. Primary, degraded, and secondary electrons can be trapped back into the magnetosphere as they travel back and forth between the two magnetically conjugate ionospheres and continuously delivering their energy to the cold plasma sheet electrons and form the electron thermal fluxes that deposit this energy at the upper ionospheric altitudes. We consider the formation of these heat fluxes focusing on the magnetosphere‐ionosphere energy interplay of the entire superthermal electron spectra from 1 eV up to 10 keV and discuss the efficiency of the different spectral energy intervals that contribute to the electron plasma heating at the magnetospheric altitudes. Our parametric studies at L = 6.8, with lower and upper band chorus whistler wave amplitudes of 10 pT and electron cyclotron harmonic wave amplitudes of 1 mVm−1, indicate the dominant role of the whistler mode in the formation of the electron heat flux coming from the magnetosphere to the ionosphere.

George V. Khazanov↗

Global magnetic anomaly and aurora of Neptune

The large offset and tilt of Neptune's dipole magnetic field combine to create a global magnetic anomaly, analogous to but much more important than earth's South Atlantic Anomaly. Energetic particle precipitation loss within the Neptune anomaly creates 'atmospheric drift shadows' within which particle fluxes are greatly reduced. The energetic particle dropout observed by Voyager near closest approach occurred near the predicted times when Voyager passed within the atmospheric drift shadow. Extremely soft, structured bursts of ions and electrons within the drift shadow may result from plasma wave-induced pitch angle scattering of trapped particles confined near the magnetic equator. The dropout does not necessarily imply that Voyager passed through an earth-like discrete auroral zone, as earlier reported. The ion and electron fluxes observed within the dropout period correspond to particles that must precipitate to Neptune's atmosphere within the anomaly region. This anomaly precipitation can account for a major portion of the ultraviolet emissions previously identified as Neptune aurora.

Cheng, Andrew F.↗

Regional and seasonal estimates of fractional storm coverage based on station precipitation observations

Simulated climates using numerical atmospheric general circulation models (GCMs) have been shown to be highly sensitive to the fraction of GCM grid area assumed to be wetted during rain events. The model hydrologic cycle and land-surface water and energy balance are influenced by the parameter bar-kappa, which is the dimensionless fractional wetted area for GCM grids. Hourly precipitation records for over 1700 precipitation stations within the contiguous United States are used to obtain observation-based estimates of fractional wetting that exhibit regional and seasonal variations. The spatial parameter bar-kappa is estimated from the temporal raingauge data using conditional probability relations. Monthly bar-kappa values are estimated for rectangular grid areas over the contiguous United States as defined by the Goddard Institute for Space Studies 4 deg x 5 deg GCM. A bias in the estimates is evident due to the unavoidably sparse raingauge network density, which causes some storms to go undetected by the network. This bias is corrected by deriving the probability of a storm escaping detection by the network. A Monte Carlo simulation study is also conducted that consists of synthetically generated storm arrivals over an artificial grid area. It is used to confirm the bar-kappa estimation procedure and to test the nature of the bias and its correction. These monthly fractional wetting estimates, based on the analysis of station precipitation data, provide an observational basis for assigning the influential parameter bar-kappa in GCM land-surface hydrology parameterizations.

Gong, Gavin↗

Geology and geochemistry of paleosols developed on the Hekpoort Basalt, Pretoria Group, South Africa

The Hekpoort paleosols comprise a regional paleoweathering horizon developed on 2.224 +/- 0.021 Ga basaltic andesite lavas at the top of the Hekpoort Formation of the Pretoria Group, Transvaal Supergroup, South Africa. In five separate profiles, from outcrops along road cuts near Waterval Onder and the Daspoort Tunnel and in three drill cores from the Bank Break Area (BB3, BB8, and BB14), the top of the paleosol is a sericite-rich zone. The sericite zone grades downward into a chlorite-rich zone. In core BB8 and in the road cut at the Daspoort Tunnel, we sampled the underlying or parent basaltic andesite into which the chlorite zone grades. We did not obtain samples of the parent material at Waterval Onder and in cores BB3 and BB14, but chemical analyses indicate that the chlorite and sericite zones in these profiles derive from underlying lavas similar to the ones we sampled in core BB8 and at the Daspoort Tunnel. The presence of apparent rip-up clasts of the paleosol in the overlying ironstones of the Strubenkop Formation in the cores from Bank Break makes it very unlikely that most of the alteration was a result of interactions with hydrothermal fluids. Desiccation cracks at the top of the paleosol that were filled with sand during the deposition of the overlying sediments at Waterval Onder point to a subaerial weathering origin. Very little, if any, Al, Ti, Zr, V, or Cr moved a discernible distance during weathering of any of the five profiles. The vertical distribution of Fe, Mg, Mn, Ni, and Co indicates that these elements were largely removed from the top of the soil during weathering. The overall abundance of these elements in each of the profiles indicates that a significant fraction of the complement lost from the top subsequently reprecipitated in the lower portion of the soil as constituents of an Fe2(+) -rich smectite. The loss of Fe from the top of the soil during weathering of the Hekpoort paleosols indicates that atmospheric PO2 was less than 8 x 10(-4) atm about 2.22 Ga. Fe2(+) -rich smectite should only precipitate during soil formation if atmospheric PCO2 is less than or equal to 2 x 10(-2) atm (Rye, Kuo, and Holland, 1995). Ca and Na were largely lost during weathering. Some Na was apparently added to the sericite zone in cores BB3, BB8, and BB14 after weathering. All five profiles are enriched in K and Rb, and most are enriched in Ba. The distribution of these elements indicates that they all were added during post-weathering hydrothermal metasomatism. Rb-Sr analysis of the paleosol at the Daspoort Tunnel indicates that metasomatism last affected that profile 1.925 +/- 0.032 Ga (Macfarlane and Holland, 1991).

Non-NASA Center↗

BOREAS HYD-8 Gross Precipitation Data

The Boreal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study (BOREAS) Hydrology (HYD)-08 team made measurements of surface hydrological processes at the Southern Study Area-Old Black Spruce (SSA-OBS) Tower Flux site to support its research into point hydrological processes and the spatial variation of these processes. Data collected may be useful in characterizing canopy interception, drip, throughfall, moss interception, drainage, evaporation, and capacity during the growing season at daily temporal resolution. This particular data set contains the gross precipitation measurements for July to August 1996. Gross precipitation is the precipitation that falls that is not intercepted by tree canopies. These data are stored in ASCII text files. The HYD-08 gross precipitation data are available from the Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) Distributed Active Archive Center (DAAC). The data files are available on a CD-ROM (see document number 20010000884).

Fernandes, Richard↗

BOREAS TF-2 SSA-OA Tower Flux, Meteorological, and Precipitation Data

The BOReal Ecosystem-Atmosphere Study Tower Flux-2 (BOREAS TF-2) team collected energy, carbon dioxide, water vapor, and momentum flux data above the canopy and in profiles through the canopy, along with meteorological data at the BOREAS Southern Study Area-Old Aspen (SSA-OA) site. Above-canopy measurements began in early February and ran through mid-September of 1994. Measurements were collected over a longer period of 1994 than most BOREAS flux sites. Daily precipitation data from several gauges were also collected. The data are available in tabular ASCII files.

Neumann, Harold↗

Processings of the Workshop on Electron Contamination in X-Ray Astronomy Experiments

The proceedings of a conference to investigate the effects of extraterrestrial radiation and particle contamination of X-ray astronomical data are presented. The subjects discussed include the following: (1) electrons at low altitudes which affect soft X-ray astronomy, (2) the geographical distribution of 100 keV electrons above the earth's atmosphere, (3) midlatitude electron precipitation, (4) particle background observed by X-ray detectors on board Copernicus satellite, and (5) a survey of trapped low energy electrons near the inner boundary of the inner radiation zone as determined by OSO-7.

Holt, S. S.↗