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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19

Human influence on the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature

We provide scientific evidence that a human-caused signal in the seasonal cycle of tropospheric temperature has emerged from the background noise of natural variability. Satellite data and the anthropogenic “fingerprint” predicted by climate models show common large-scale changes in geographical patterns of seasonal cycle amplitude. These common features include increases in amplitude at mid-latitudes in both hemispheres, amplitude decreases at high latitudes in the Southern Hemisphere, and small changes in the tropics. Simple physical mechanisms explain these features. The model fingerprint of seasonal cycle changes is identifiable with high statistical confidence in five out of six satellite temperature datasets. Our results suggest that attribution studies with the changing seasonal cycle provide powerful evidence for a significant human effect on Earth’s climate.

Santer, Benjamin D.↗

Spectrometer-free quantitative vapor sensing and classification via spatiotemporal imaging of porous silicon metasurfaces

Metasurfaces offer a compact platform for optical vapor sensing, but their practical deployment has been limited by weak evanescent light–matter interactions and reliance on spectrally resolved instrumentation. Here, we report porous silicon (pSi) metasurfaces for spectrometer-free quantitative detection of volatile organic compounds (VOCs) with strongly enhanced light–matter interaction. The engineered porosity increases sensitivity by >100× relative to non-porous dielectric metasurfaces, enabling limits of detection of 1.65 ppm for methanol and 9.1 ppm for ethanol across a broad dynamic range (<10 ppm to >103 ppm). Imaging-based readout provides a lightweight, spectrometer-free pathway for real-time quantitative sensing. Beyond quantitative detection, the mesoporous architecture introduces adsorption–desorption kinetics as an additional information channel. Analysis of the resulting spatiotemporal signatures enables kinetic fingerprinting without reliance on infrared spectral features or surface functionalization, and a lightweight machine-learning classifier differentiates acetone, methanol, ethanol, and isopropanol with 91.6% accuracy. These results establish porous metasurfaces as spatiotemporal sensing elements that couple quantitative vapor detection with kinetic fingerprinting through real-time dynamical responses, enabling low-cost, high-performance optical sensors.

Dash, Tomoshree [Clemson University]↗

Label-free single-vesicle based surface enhanced Raman spectroscopy: A robust approach for investigating the biomolecular composition of small extracellular vesicles

Small extracellular vesicles (sEVs) are cell-released vesicles ranging from 30-150nm in size. They have garnered increasing attention because of their potential for both the diagnosis and treatment of disease. The diversity of sEVs derives from their biological composition and cargo content. Currently, the isolation of sEV subpopulations is primarily based on bio-physical and affinity-based approaches. Since a standardized definition for sEV subpopulations is yet to be fully established, it is important to further investigate the correlation between the biomolecular composition of sEVs and their physical properties. In this study, we employed a platform combining single-vesicle surface-enhanced Raman spectroscopy (SERS) and machine learning to examine individual sEVs isolated by size-exclusion chromatography (SEC). The biomolecular composition of each vesicle examined was reflected by its corresponding SERS spectral features (biomolecular “fingerprints”), with their roots in the composition of their collective Raman-active bonds. Origins of the SERS spectral features were validated through a comparative analysis between SERS and mass spectrometry (MS). SERS fingerprinting of individual vesicles was effective in overcoming the challenges posed by EV population averaging, allowing for the possibility of analyzing the variations in biomolecular composition between the vesicles of similar and/or different sizes. Using this approach, we uncovered that each of the size-based fractions of sEVs contained particles with predominantly similar SERS spectral features. Indeed, more than 84% of the vesicles residing within a particular group were clearly distinguishable from that of the other EV sub-populations, despite some spectral variations within each sub-population. Our results suggest the possibility that size-based EV fractionation methods produce samples where similarly eluted sEVs are correlated with their respective biochemical contents, as reflected by their SERS spectra. Our findings therefore highlight the possibility that the biogenesis and respective biological functionalities of the various sEV fractions may be inherently different.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

Phonon engineering of boron nitride via isotopic enrichment

Phonon polaritons (PhPs) enable a variety of applications, yet it requires PhPs supported in the desired frequency range. The two BN allotropes (cubic and hexagonal, cBN and hBN) are of particular interest, as their optic phonons fall within the so-called molecular-fingerprint region (~ 1000–1610 cm -1 ). However, there remains a spectral gap between PhPs covered by these two, limiting applications. Thus, we isotopically engineered hBN and cBN and examined the optic phonons. Furthermore, for hBN, enhancement of the optic phonon lifetimes and shifted frequencies are observed. However, lifetimes are observed to decrease with the enrichment of cBN by 10 B, 11 B, and 15 N. We propose that the reduced lifetimes are not due to intrinsic loss, but rather increased defect concentrations resulting from the modified growth, supported by first-principles calculations. Thus, reducing the extrinsic defects in isotopically engineered cBN may present a path toward overcoming these restrictions for applications in the molecular-fingerprint region.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

X-ray absorption spectroscopy study of Mn reference compounds for Mn speciation in terrestrial surface environments

Abstract X-ray absorption spectroscopy (XAS) offers great potential to identify and quantify Mn species in surface environments by means of linear combination fit (LCF), fingerprint, and shell-fit analyses of bulk Mn XAS spectra. However, these approaches are complicated by the lack of a comprehensive and accessible spectrum library. Additionally, molecular-level information on Mn coordination in some potentially important Mn species occurring in soils and sediments is missing. Therefore, we investigated a suite of 32 natural and synthetic Mn reference compounds, including Mn oxide, oxyhydroxide, carbonate, phosphate, and silicate minerals, as well as organic and adsorbed Mn species, by Mn K-edge X-ray absorption near edge structure (XANES) and extended X-ray absorption fine structure (EXAFS) spectroscopy. The ability of XAS to infer the average oxidation state (AOS) of Mn was assessed by comparing XANES-derived AOS with the AOS obtained from redox titrations. All reference compounds were studied for their local (<5 Å) Mn coordination environment using EXAFS shell-fit analysis. Statistical analyses were employed to clarify how well and to what extent individual Mn species (groups) can be distinguished by XAS based on spectral uniqueness. Our results show that LCF analysis of normalized XANES spectra can reliably quantify the Mn AOS within ~0.1 v.u. in the range +2 to +4. These spectra are diagnostic for most Mn species investigated, but unsuitable to identify and quantify members of the manganate and Mn(III)-oxyhydroxide groups. First-derivative XANES fingerprinting allows the unique identification of pyrolusite, ramsdellite, and potentially lithiophorite within the manganate group. However, XANES spectra of individual Mn compounds can vary significantly depending on chemical composition and/or crystallinity, which limits the accuracy of XANES-based speciation analyses. In contrast, EXAFS spectra provide a much better discriminatory power to identify and quantify Mn species. Principal component and cluster analyses of k2-weighted EXAFS spectra of Mn reference compounds implied that EXAFS LCF analysis of environmental samples can identify and quantify at least the following primary Mn species groups: (1) Phyllo- and tectomanganates with large tunnel sizes (2 × 2 and larger; hollandite sensu stricto, romanèchite, todorokite); (2) tectomanganates with small tunnel sizes (2 × 2 and smaller; cryptomelane, pyrolusite, ramsdellite); (3) Mn(III)-dominated species (nesosilicates, oxyhydroxides, organic compounds, spinels); (4) Mn(II) species (carbonate, phosphate, and phyllosilicate minerals, adsorbed and organic species); and (5) manganosite. All Mn compounds, except for members of the manganate group (excluding pyrolusite) and adsorbed Mn(II) species, exhibit unique EXAFS spectra that would allow their identification and quantification in mixtures. Therefore, our results highlight the potential of Mn K-edge EXAFS spectroscopy to assess bulk Mn speciation in soils and sediments. A complete XAS-based speciation analysis of bulk Mn in environmental samples should preferably include the determination of Mn valences following the “Combo” method of Manceau et al. (2012), EXAFS LCF analyses based on principal component and target transformation results, as well as EXAFS shell-fit analyses for the validation of LCF results. For this purpose, all 32 XAS reference spectra are provided in the Online Materials1 for further use by the scientific community.

Geochemistry & Geophysics↗

Ultrafast Structural Dynamics in Combustion Relevant Model Systems

The research project explored the time resolved structural dynamics of important model reaction system using an array of novel methods that were developed specifically for this purpose. They include time resolved electron diffraction, time resolved relativistic electron diffraction, and time resolved Rydberg fingerprint spectroscopy. Toward the end of the funding period, we also developed time-resolved x-ray diffraction, which uses ultrafast x-ray pulses at LCLS. Those experiments are just now blossoming, as the funding period expired. In the following, the time resolved Rydberg Fingerprint Spectroscopy is discussed in some detail, as it has been a very productive method. The binding energy of an electron in a Rydberg state, that is, the energy difference between the Rydberg level and the ground state of the molecular ion, has been found to be a uniquely powerful tool to characterize the molecular structure. To rationalize the structure sensitivity we invoke a picture from electron diffraction: when it passes the molecular ion core, the Rydberg electron experiences a phase shift compared to an electron in a hydrogen atom. This phase shift requires an adjustment of the binding energy of the electron, which is measurable. As in electron diffraction, the phase shift depends on the molecular, geometrical structure, so that a measurement of the electron binding energy can be interpreted as a measurement of the molecule’s structure.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Viability Study for an Unattended UF 6 Cylinder Verification Station: Phase I Final Report

In recent years, the International Atomic Energy Agency (IAEA) has pursued innovative techniques and an integrated suite of safeguards measures to address the verification challenges posed by the front end of the nuclear fuel cycle. Among the unattended instruments currently being explored by the IAEA is an Unattended Cylinder Verification Station (UCVS) that could provide automated, independent verification of the declared relative enrichment, 235 U mass, total uranium mass and identification for all declared UF 6 cylinders in a facility (e.g., uranium enrichment plants and fuel fabrication plants). Under the auspices of the United States and European Commission Support Programs to the IAEA, a project was undertaken to assess the technical and practical viability of the UCVS concept. The US Support Program team consisted of Pacific Northwest National Laboratory (PNNL, lead), Los Alamos National Laboratory (LANL), Oak Ridge National Laboratory (ORNL) and Savanah River National Laboratory (SRNL). At the core of the viability study is a long-term field trial of a prototype UCVS system at a Westinghouse fuel fabrication facility. A key outcome of the study is a quantitative performance evaluation of two nondestructive assay (NDA) methods being considered for inclusion in a UCVS: Hybrid Enrichment Verification Array (HEVA), and Passive Neutron Enrichment Meter (PNEM). This report provides context for the UCVS concept and the field trial: potential UCVS implementation concepts at an enrichment facility; an overview of UCVS prototype design; field trial objectives and activities. Field trial results and interpretation are presented, with a focus on the performance of PNEM and HEVA for the assay of over 200 “typical” Type 30B cylinders, and the viability of an “NDA Fingerprint” concept as a high-fidelity means to periodically verify that the contents of a given cylinder are consistent with previous scans. A modeling study, combined with field-measured instrument uncertainties, provides an assessment of the partial-defect sensitivity of HEVA and PNEM for both one-time assay and (repeated) NDA Fingerprint verification scenarios. The findings presented in this report represent a significant step forward in the community’s understanding of the strengths and limitations of the PNEM and HEVA NDA methods, and the viability of the UCVS concept in front-end fuel cycle facilities. This experience will inform Phase II of the UCVS viability study, should the IAEA pursue it.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

Characterizing the contribution of bioaerosols diversity from complex aerosol particle samples.

Current global change scenarios expect to significantly increase the contribution of pollen to the total organic aerosol budget. In addition, pollen can burst into smaller fragments that are highly efficient as cloud condensation nuclei. However, current climate models still do not incorporate the effects of these particles due to detection and quantification challenges in complex aerosol mixtures. Chemical biomarkers (i.e. fructose) have commonly been used to trace pollen but this approximation can generate false positive results given the large number of shared compounds between different bioaerosols. A previous pilot EMSL experiment performed on pure pollen samples suggested that using a set of metabolites as a fingerprint of bioaerosols could serve to substantially increase detection accuracy over single biomarker approaches. In this proposal we developed novel bioinformatic strategies to characterize and quantify complex pollen mixtures present in the atmosphere. For that, we used diverse machine learning algorithms to analyze metabolic fingerprints from complex mixtures of different pollen acquired with high-resolution mass spectrometry (Orbitrap Q-Exactive). Our preliminary results demonstrated the potential to accurately discern and identify at specific relative abundances different pollen species in complex mixtures. Our research will lead to a significant advancement in the atmospheric chemistry and provide much needed data to improve the accuracy of climate models.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Redox Mechanism in Na-Ion Battery Cathodes Probed by Advanced Soft X-Ray Spectroscopy

A Na-ion battery (NIB) device is a promising solution for mid-/large-scale energy storage, with the advantages of material abundance, low cost, and environmental benignity. To improve the NIB capacity and retainability, extensive efforts have been put into the developments of NIB electrode materials. The redox activities of the transition metal (TM)-based NIB electrodes are critical in defining the capacity and stability. Here, we provide a comprehensive review on recent studies of the redox mechanisms of NIB cathodes through synchrotron-based soft X-ray absorption spectroscopy (sXAS) and mapping of resonant inelastic X-ray scattering (mRIXS). These soft X-ray techniques are direct and effective tools to fingerprint the TM-3d and O-p states with both bulk and surface sensitivities. Particularly, 3d TM L-edge sXAS has been used to quantify the cationic redox contributions to the electrochemical property; however, it suffers from lineshape distortion for the bulk sensitive signals in some scenarios. With the new dimension of information along the emitted photon energy, mRIXS can address the distortion issue of in TM-L sXAS; moreover, it also breaks through the limitation of conventional sXAS on detecting unconventional TM and O states, e.g., Mn(I) in NIB anode and oxidized oxygen in NIB cathodes. The mRIXS fingerprint of the oxidized oxygen state enables the detection of the reversibility of the oxygen redox reaction through the evolution of feature intensity upon electrochemical cycling and thus clarifies various misunderstandings in our conventional wisdom. We conclude that, with mRIXS established as a powerful tool, its potential and power will continue to be explored for characterizing novel chemical states in NIB electrodes.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

Scaling Global Warming Impacts on Ocean Ecosystems: Lessons From a Suite of Earth System Models

An important technique used by climate modelers to isolate the impacts of increasing greenhouse gasses on Earth System processes is to simulate the impact of an abrupt increase in carbon dioxide. The spatial pattern of change provides a “fingerprint” that is generally much larger than natural variability. Insofar as the response to radiative forcing is linear (the impact of quadrupling CO 2 is twice the impact of doubling CO 2 ) this fingerprint can then be used to estimate the impact of historical greenhouse gas forcing. However, the degree to which biogeochemical cycles respond linearly to radiative forcing has rarely been tested. In this paper, we evaluate which ocean biogeochemical fields are likely to respond linearly to changing radiative forcing, which ones do not, and where linearity breaks down. We also demonstrate that the representation of lateral mixing by mesoscale eddies, which varies significantly across climate models, plays an important role in modulating the breakdown of linearity. Globally integrated surface rates of biogeochemical cycling (primary productivity, particulate export) respond in a relatively linear fashion and are only moderately sensitive to mixing. By contrast, the habitability of the interior ocean (as determined by hypoxia and calcite supersaturation) behaves non-linearly and is very sensitive to mixing. This is because the deep ocean, as well as certain regions in the surface ocean, are very sensitive to the magnitude of deep wintertime convection. The cessation of convection under global warming is strongly modulated by the representation of eddy mixing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Magnetic and Impedance Analysis of Fe 2 O 3 Nanoparticles for Chemical Warfare Agent Sensing Applications

A dire need for real-time detection of toxic chemical compounds exists in both civilian and military spheres. In this paper, we demonstrate that inexpensive, commercially available Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles are capable of selective sensing of chemical warfare agents (CWAs) using frequency-dependent impedance spectroscopy, with additional potential as an orthogonal magnetic sensor. X-ray magnetic circular dichroism analysis shows that Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles possess moderately lowered moment upon exposure to 2-chloroethyl ethyl sulfide (2-CEES) and diisopropyl methylphosphonate (DIMP) and significantly lowered moment upon exposure to dimethyl methylphosphonate (DMMP) and dimethyl chlorophosphate (DMCP). Associated X-ray absorption spectra confirm a redox reaction in the Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles due to CWA structural analog exposure, with differentiable energy-dependent features that suggest selective sensing is possible, given the correct method. Impedance spectroscopy performed on samples dosed with DMMP, DMCP, and tabun (GA, chemical warfare nerve agent) showed strong, differentiable, frequency-dependent responses. The frequency profiles provide unique “shift fingerprints” with which high specificity can be determined, even amongst similar analytes. The results suggest that frequency-dependent impedance fingerprinting using commercially available Fe 2 O 3 nanoparticles as a sensor material is a feasible route to selective detection.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

Data from: Switchgrass rhizosphere metabolite chemistry driven by nitrogen availability

Plants and soil microorganisms interact closely in the rhizosphere where plants may exchange carbon (C) for functional benefits from the microbial community. For example, the bioenergy crop, switchgrass (Panicum virgatum) is thought to exchange root-exuded C for nitrogen (N) fixed by diazotrophs (free-living N-fixers). However, this interaction is not well characterized and it is not known how or if switchgrass responds to diazotrophs or their activity. To explore this question, we assessed rhizosphere metabolite chemistry of switchgrass grown in a hydroponic system under two N levels and under inoculated or uninoculated conditions. Plants were grown with the inoculum Azotobacter vinelandii DJ for three days before harvest. We found switchgrass root exudate chemistry to be driven by N availability. Total metabolite concentrations were generally greater under high N versus low N and unaffected by inoculation. Examination of rhizosphere chemical fingerprints indicates metabolite chemistry was also driven strongly by N availability with a greater relative abundance of carbohydrates under high N and greater relative abundance of organic acids under low N. We also found evidence of changes in rhizosphere chemical fingerprints by inoculation treatment. However, we found little evidence of N treatment and inoculation interaction effects which suggests this response is not directly mediated by N availability.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Methane, ethane, and propane production in Greenland ice core samples and a first isotopic characterization of excess methane

Air trapped in polar ice provides unique records of the past atmospheric composition ranging from key greenhouse gases such as methane (CH 4 ) to short-lived trace gases like ethane (C 2 H 6 ) and propane (C 3 H 8 ). Recently, the comparison of CH 4 records obtained using different extraction methods revealed disagreements in the CH 4 concentration for the last glacial in Greenland ice. Elevated methane levels were detected in dust-rich ice core sections measured discretely, pointing to a process sensitive to the melt extraction technique. To shed light on the underlying mechanism, we performed targeted experiments and analyzed samples for methane and the short-chain alkanes ethane and propane covering the time interval from 12 to 42 kyr. Here, we report our findings of these elevated alkane concentrations, which scale linearly with the amount of mineral dust within the ice samples. The alkane production happens during the melt extraction step of the classic wet-extraction technique and reaches 14 to 91 ppb of CH 4 excess in dusty ice samples. We document for the first time a co-production of excess methane, ethane, and propane, with the observed concentrations for ethane and propane exceeding their past atmospheric background at least by a factor of 10. Independent of the produced amounts, excess alkanes were produced in a fixed molar ratio of approximately 14 : 2 : 1, indicating a shared origin. The measured carbon isotopic signature of excess methane is (-47.0 ± 2.9) ‰ and its deuterium isotopic signature is (-326 ± 57) ‰. With the co-production ratios of excess alkanes and the isotopic composition of excess methane we established a fingerprint that allows us to constrain potential formation processes. This fingerprint is not in line with a microbial origin. Moreover, an adsorption–desorption process of thermogenic gas on dust particles transported to Greenland does not appear very likely. Instead, the alkane pattern appears to be indicative of abiotic decomposition of organic matter as found in soils and plant leaves.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Edge ML for CAN bus intrusion detection in AVs

Autonomous Vehicles (AVs) are revolutionizing transportation, but their reliance on interconnected cyber-physical systems exposes them to unprecedented cybersecurity risks. This study addresses the critical challenge of detecting real-time cyber intrusions in self-driving vehicles by leveraging a dataset from the Udacity self-driving car project. We simulate four high-impact attack vectors, Denial of Service (DoS), spoofing, replay, and fuzzy attacks, by injecting noise into spatial features (e.g., bounding box coordinates) to replicate adversarial scenarios. We develop and evaluate two lightweight neural network architectures (NN-1 and NN-2) alongside a logistic regression baseline (LG-1) for intrusion detection. The models achieve exceptional performance, with NN-2 attaining an AUC score of 93.15% and 93.15% accuracy, demonstrating their suitability for edge deployment in AV environments. Through explainable AI techniques, we uncover unique forensic fingerprints of each attack type, such as spatial corruption in fuzzy attacks and temporal anomalies in replay attacks, offering actionable insights for feature engineering and proactive defense. Visual analytics, including confusion matrices, ROC curves, and feature importance plots, validate the models' robustness and interpretability. This research sets a new benchmark for AV cybersecurity, delivering a scalable, field-ready toolkit for Original Equipment Manufacturers (OEMs) and policymakers. By aligning intrusion fingerprints with SAE J3061 automotive security standards, we provide a pathway for integrating machine learning into safety-critical AV systems. Our findings underscore the urgent need for security-by-design AI, ensuring that AVs not only drive autonomously but also defend autonomously. This work bridges the gap between theoretical cybersecurity and life-preserving engineering, offering a leap toward safer, more secure autonomous transportation.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

Laser scanner for testing semiconductor chips

Individual ''fingerprint'' signals are produced when system photoexcites chips. ''Fingerprints'' are analyzed for characteristics associated with defects, including many not visible to the naked eye. Electromagnetic radiation photogenerates free electrons and holes in semiconductor chip. These carriers produce electrical signals at terminals. Signals vary depending on what defects are present.

Hall, T. C.↗

Liquid chromatographic characterization of PMR-15 resin and prepreg

A liquid chromatographic method has been developed capable of providing a chemical fingerprint of PMR-15 resin solutions and prepreg. The amounts of two of the monomers can be quantified so their experimentally determined molar ratio can be compared to the formulated one. Only the monomers were detected in fresh resin solution, whereas several additional components, resulting from an association or reaction between the norbornenyl endcap and the amine, were detected in a resin solution aged for three days. Two commercial prepregs exhibited fingerprints similar to that of laboratory material, but three others contained additional components corresponding to higher esters and nadimides.

Reed, K. E.↗

X-Ray Diffraction Techniques for a Field Instrument: Patterns of Lithologic Provences

Future exploration of Mars will attempt to shed light on the mineralogy of surface materials. Instruments deployed from remote platforms should have the capability to conduct both intensive analyses as well as rapid, reconnaissance surveys while they function in the martian environment as surrogate geologists. In order to accommodate the reconnaissance mode of analysis and to compensate for analytical limitations imposed by the space-flight conditions, data analysis methods are being developed that will permit interpretation of data by recognition of signatures or "fingerprints". Specifically, we are developing a technique which will allow interpretation of diffraction patterns by recognition of characteristic signatures of different lithologic provences. This technique allows a remote vehicle to function in a rapid-scan mode using the lithologic signature to determine where a more thorough analysis is needed. An x-ray diffraction pattern is characterized by the angular positions of diffracted x-rays, x-ray intensity levels and background radiation levels. These elements may be used to identify a generalized x-ray signature. Lithologic signatures are being developed in two ways. A signature is composed using the ideal powder diffraction indices from the mineral assembledge common to a specific lithologic provence. This is then confirmed using a laboratory diffraction pattern of a whole rock powder. Preliminary results comparing the diffraction signatures of the major mineral assembledges common to basalt, carbonate, and evaporite basin deposits indicate that lithologies are differentiable as a "fingerprint". Statistical analyses are being performed to establish the confidence levels of this technique.

Marshall, J.↗

Characterization of Climate Change and Variability with GPS

We compared zonal mean specific humidity derived from the 21 June-4 July 1995 Global Positioning System (GPS)/MET occultation observations with that derived from the European Center for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts (ECMWF) global analyses. The GPS/MET results indicate a drier troposphere, especially near the subtropical tradewind inversion. A small, moist bias in the GPS/MET upper northern-hemisphere troposphere compared to ECMWF may be due to a small radiosonde temperature bias. A diagram shows the difference (g/kg) between the GPS/MET zonal mean specific humidity and that for June-August derived from 1963-1973 radiosondes. Although the observing period is short, GPS and ECMWF results both indicate a significantly wetter boundary layer at most latitudes consistent with decadal trends observed in radiosonde data. GPS/MET results exhibit higher tropical convective available potential energy (CAPE), suggesting a more vigorous tropical Hadley circulation. Drier, free troposphere air in the descending branches of the Hadley circulation is due in part to a moist radiosonde bias but may also reflect some negative moisture feedback. Using 1992-1997 ground GPS observations and recent advancements in GPS technology, we removed an apparent altimetric drift (-1.2 +/- 0.4 mm/yr) due to columnar water vapor from the Topography (Ocean) Experiment (TOPEX) microwave radiometer, which brought the TOPEX mean sea level change estimates into better agreement with historical tide gauge records, suggesting global mean sea level is rising at a rate of 1.5-2.0 mm/yr. We can also discern a statistically significant increase of 0.2 +/- 0.1 kg/square m/yr in mean columnar water vapor over the ocean from 1992-1997. Optimal fingerprinting can be used for the detection and attribution of tropospheric warming due to an anthropogenic greenhouse. Optimal fingerprinting distinguishes between different types of signals according to their spatial and temporal patterns, while minimizing the influence of natural climate variability. S. Leroy concludes that the signal-to-noise ratio of global warming detection increases by unity approximately every 10 years if a single oceanic region is chosen. Less time for detection is likely when many global regions are considered simultaneously. GPS occultation constellations allow the possibility of detecting small changes in upper air temperature with inconsequential calibration errors, making occultation an ideal data type for global warming detection studies. Our initial study of a 22-GHz satellite-satellite occultation system predicts upper troposphere moisture sensitivities of 3-5 ppmv and 1-2 percent in the middle and lower troposphere. Additional information contained in original.

Kursinski, R.↗