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DOE OSTI2023

Skillful Multi‐Month Predictions of Ecosystem Stressors in the Surface and Subsurface Ocean

Abstract Anthropogenic carbon emissions and associated climate change are driving rapid warming, acidification, and deoxygenation in the ocean, which increasingly stress marine ecosystems. On top of long‐term trends, short term variability of marine stressors can have major implications for marine ecosystems and their management. As such, there is a growing need for predictions of marine ecosystem stressors on monthly, seasonal, and multi‐month timescales. Previous studies have demonstrated the ability to make reliable predictions of the surface ocean physical and biogeochemical state months to years in advance, but few studies have investigated forecast skill of multiple stressors simultaneously or assessed the forecast skill below the surface. Here, we use the Community Earth System Model (CESM) Seasonal to Multiyear Large Ensemble (SMYLE) along with novel observation‐based biogeochemical and physical products to quantify the predictive skill of dissolved inorganic carbon (DIC), dissolved oxygen, and temperature in the surface and subsurface ocean. CESM SMYLE demonstrates high physical and biogeochemical predictive skill multiple months in advance in key oceanic regions and frequently outperforms persistence forecasts. We find up to 10 months of skillful forecasts, with particularly high skill in the Northeast Pacific (Gulf of Alaska and California Current Large Marine Ecosystems) for temperature, surface DIC, and subsurface oxygen. Our findings suggest that dynamical marine ecosystem prediction could support actionable advice for decision making.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

DOE OSTI2024

Submerged Fatigue Testing of Marine Energy Advanced Materials

Marine energy structures are typically made of advanced composite materials and are subjected to extreme ocean environments in service. In extreme ocean environments, seawater currents and waves load structures repeatedly, which cause two environmental conditions: water intrusion and mechanical fatigue. In prior research, the two environmental conditions were applied sequentially, where composite specimens were aged and then mechanically tested. To understand the combined effects of dynamic loading and water intrusion on composite materials, the present study involves the static and fatigue four-point bend testing of composite coupons in a water tank. The water tank was designed and built to fit either a 100 kN or a 250 kN load frame. Flexural strength value, cycles to failure, and failure mode results from submerged fatigue testing will be used to inform marine energy structure designs. The coupon-scale test method will be used to scale up to and inform methods for subsequent subcomponent testing and standards development. The benefits of designing marine energy structures to informed standards are decreased lifetime costs and increased reliability and energy production, ultimately leading to a sustainable and low-carbon energy system.

composite materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Submerged Fatigue Testing of Marine Energy Advanced Materials

Marine energy structures are typically made of advanced composite materials and are subjected to extreme ocean environments in service. In extreme ocean environments, seawater currents and waves load structures repeatedly, which cause two environmental conditions: water intrusion and mechanical fatigue. In prior research, the two environmental conditions were applied sequentially, where composite specimens were aged and then mechanically tested. To understand the combined effects of dynamic loading and water intrusion on composite materials, the present study involves the static and fatigue four-point bend testing of composite coupons in a water tank. The water tank was designed and built to fit either a 100 kN or a 250 kN load frame. Flexural strength value, cycles to failure, and failure mode results from submerged fatigue testing will be used to inform marine energy structure designs. The coupon-scale test method will be used to scale up to and inform methods for subsequent subcomponent testing and standards development. Finally, the benefits of designing marine energy structures to informed standards are decreased lifetime costs and increased reliability and energy production, ultimately leading to a sustainable and low-carbon energy system.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Submerged Fatigue Testing of Marine Energy Advanced Materials: Preprint

composite materials↗

DOE OSTI2024

Submerged Fatigue Testing of Marine Energy Advanced Materials

composite materials↗

DOE OSTI2022

Overview of the MOSAiC expedition: Snow and sea ice

Year-round observations of the physical snow and ice properties and processes that govern the ice pack evolution and its interaction with the atmosphere and the ocean were conducted during the Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) expedition of the research vessel Polarstern in the Arctic Ocean from October 2019 to September 2020. This work was embedded into the interdisciplinary design of the 5 MOSAiC teams, studying the atmosphere, the sea ice, the ocean, the ecosystem, and biogeochemical processes. The overall aim of the snow and sea ice observations during MOSAiC was to characterize the physical properties of the snow and ice cover comprehensively in the central Arctic over an entire annual cycle. This objective was achieved by detailed observations of physical properties and of energy and mass balance of snow and ice. By studying snow and sea ice dynamics over nested spatial scales from centimeters to tens of kilometers, the variability across scales can be considered. On-ice observations of in situ and remote sensing properties of the different surface types over all seasons will help to improve numerical process and climate models and to establish and validate novel satellite remote sensing methods; the linkages to accompanying airborne measurements, satellite observations, and results of numerical models are discussed. We found large spatial variabilities of snow metamorphism and thermal regimes impacting sea ice growth. We conclude that the highly variable snow cover needs to be considered in more detail (in observations, remote sensing, and models) to better understand snow-related feedback processes. The ice pack revealed rapid transformations and motions along the drift in all seasons. The number of coupled ice–ocean interface processes observed in detail are expected to guide upcoming research with respect to the changing Arctic sea ice.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2026

Detecting shearless phase-space transport barriers in global gyrokinetic turbulence simulations with test particle map models

In magnetically confined fusion plasmas, the role played by zonal 𝐸 x 𝐵 flow shear layers in the suppression of turbulent transport is relatively well understood. However, less is understood about the role played by the weak shear regions that arise in the non-monotonic radial electric field profiles often associated with these shear layers. In electrostatic simulations from the global total-𝑓 gyrokinetic particle-in-cell code XGC, we demonstrate how shearless regions with non-zero flow curvature form zonal ‘jets’ that, in conjunction with neighbouring regions of shear, can act as robust barriers to particle transport and turbulence spreading. By isolating quasi-coherent fluctuations radially localised to the zonal jets, we construct a map model for the Lagrangian dynamics of gyrokinetic test particles in the presence of drift waves. We identify the presence of shearless invariant tori in this model and verify that these tori act as partial phase-space transport barriers in the simulations. We also demonstrate how avalanches impinging on these shearless tori cause eddy detachment events that form ‘cold/warm core ring’ structures analogous to those found in oceanic jets, facilitating transport across the barriers without destroying them completely. We discuss how shearless tori may generically arise from tertiary instabilities or other types of discrete eigenmodes, suggesting their potential relevance to broader classes of turbulent fluctuations.

fusion plasma↗

DOE OSTI2023

Sensitivity of the pseudo-global warming method under flood conditions: a case study from the northeastern US

Abstract. Intensified extreme precipitation and corresponding floods are the most relevant consequences of climate change over the northeastern US (NEUS). To evaluate the impacts of climate change or certain climate perturbations on future extreme weather events which are dynamically similar to historic analogs, the pseudo-global warming (PGW) method has been frequently employed; however, this method lacks precise definition and guidelines, thus limiting its application. More specifically, three key questions related to the application of the PGW method remain unanswered: at what spatial scale should climate perturbations be applied? Among the different meteorological variables available, which ones should be perturbed? And will PGW projections vary significantly when different perturbations are applied? To address these questions, we examine the sensitivity and robustness of conclusions drawn from the PGW method over the NEUS by conducting multiple PGW experiments with varied perturbation spatial scales and choice of perturbed meteorological variables. The results show that the projections of precipitation and other essential variables at the regional mean scale are consistent across the PGW simulations, with a relative difference of much less than 10 %; however, different perturbation modifications can cause significant displacements of the storm events being simulated. Several previously assumed advantages of modifying only the temperature at regional mean scale, such as the preservation of geostrophic balance, do not appear to hold. Also, for these experiments, we find the regional mean perturbation produces a positive precipitation bias because it ignores the land–ocean warming contrast, which is a robust regional response to global warming. Overall, PGW experiments with perturbations from temperature or the combination of temperature and wind at the grid point scale are both recommended, depending on the research questions. The first approach can isolate the spatially dependent thermodynamic impact, and the latter incorporates both the thermodynamic and dynamic impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Ocean fronts and eddies force atmospheric rivers and heavy precipitation in western North America

Atmospheric rivers (ARs) are responsible for over 90% of poleward water vapor transport in the mid-latitudes and can produce extreme precipitation when making landfall. However, weather and climate models still have difficulty simulating and predicting landfalling ARs and associated extreme precipitation, highlighting the need to better understand AR dynamics. Here, using high-resolution climate models and observations, we demonstrate that mesoscale sea-surface temperature (SST) anomalies along the Kuroshio Extension can exert a remote influence on landfalling ARs and related heavy precipitation along the west coast of North America. Inclusion of mesoscale SST forcing in the simulations results in approximately a 40% increase in landfalling ARs and up to a 30% increase in heavy precipitation in mountainous regions and this remote impact occurs on two-week time scales. The asymmetrical response of the atmosphere to warm vs. cold mesoscale SSTs over the eddy-rich Kuroshio Extension region is proposed as a forcing mechanism that results in a net increase of moisture flux above the planetary boundary layer, prompting AR genesis via enhancing moisture transport into extratropical cyclones in the presence of mesoscale SST forcing.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2024

Prandtl number effects on extreme mixing events in forced stratified turbulence

Relatively strongly stratified turbulent flows tend to self-organise into a ‘layered anisotropic stratified turbulence’ (LAST) regime, characterised by relatively deep and well-mixed density ‘layers’ separated by relatively thin ‘interfaces’ of enhanced density gradient. Understanding the associated mixing dynamics is a central problem in geophysical fluid dynamics. It is challenging to study LAST mixing, as it is associated with Reynolds numbers $Re := UL/\nu \gg 1$ and Froude numbers $Fr :=(2{\rm \pi} U)/(L N) \ll 1$ ( $U$ and $L$ being characteristic velocity and length scales, $\nu$ the kinematic viscosity and $N$ the buoyancy frequency). Since a sufficiently large dynamic range (largely) unaffected by stratification and viscosity is required, it is also necessary for the buoyancy Reynolds number $Re_{b} := \epsilon /(\nu N^{2}) \gg 1$ , where $\epsilon$ is the (appropriately volume-averaged) turbulent kinetic energy dissipation rate. This requirement is exacerbated for oceanically relevant flows, as the Prandtl number $Pr := \nu /\kappa = {O}(10)$ in thermally stratified water (where $\kappa$ is the thermal diffusivity), thus leading (potentially) to even finer density field structures. We report here on four forced fully resolved direct numerical simulations of stratified turbulence at various Froude ( $Fr=0.5, 2$ ) and Prandtl ( $Pr=1, 7$ ) numbers forced so that $Re_{b}=50$ , with resolutions up to $30\,240 \times 30\,240 \times 3780$ . We find that, as $Pr$ increases, emergent ‘interfaces’ become finer and their contribution to bulk mixing characteristics decreases at the expense of the small-scale density structures populating the well-mixed ‘layers’. However, extreme mixing events (as quantified by significantly elevated local destruction rates of buoyancy variance $\chi _0$ ) are always preferentially found in the (statically stable) interfaces, irrespective of the value of $Pr$ .

Mechanics↗

DOE OSTI2020

Role of Equatorial Cold Tongue in Central Pacific Double-ITCZ Bias in the NCAR CESM1.2

Warm SST bias underlying the spurious southern ITCZ has long been recognized as one of the main causes for double-ITCZ bias in coupled GCMs in the central Pacific. This study demonstrates that the NCAR CESM1.2 can still simulate significant double-ITCZ bias even with cold SST bias in the southern ITCZ region, indicating that warm SST bias is not a necessary condition for double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. Further analyses suggest that the equatorial cold tongue (ECT) biases play important roles in the formation of double-ITCZ bias in the central Pacific. The severe cold SST biases in the ECT region in the central Pacific may enhance the SST gradient between the ECT and southern ITCZ region, strengthening the lower troposphere dynamical convergence and hence convection in the southern ITCZ region. The formation mechanism of excessive ECT bias is further investigated. It is shown that the cold SST biases in the ECT region can be largely attributed to the anomalous cooling tendency produced by the upper ocean zonal advection due to overly strong zonal currents. In the ECT region, the westward ocean surface zonal current is driven by the equatorial easterly surface winds. In this work, it is shown that convection bias simulated by the atmospheric model in the equatorial Amazon region may lead to easterly wind bias in the downwind side (west) of convection region. Finally, the mean Walker circulation transports these easterly wind momentum anomalies downward and westward to the surface, resulting in the overly strong surface easterly wind in the central equatorial Pacific.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Sampling of a River Plume Front with Uncrewed Underwater and Aerial Vehicles

Sampling fast-propagating oceanic features is inherently challenging and demands versatile instrumentation and innovative strategies. This paper introduces a novel sampling strategy designed to capture such phenomena, exemplified by a river plume front. Our method revolves around modifying the preprogrammed pathway of an uncrewed underwater vehicle (UUV) to dynamically track and three-dimensionally sample the evolution of the front. To enable the UUV to follow the feature, we adapt the use of a drifting gateway buoy to be positioned and trapped at the front’s convergence zone, allowing underway navigation relative to the buoy. In our demonstration, we showcase the effectiveness of this strategy by successfully conducting over 30 crossings of a river plume front within a 6-h window. The UUV sensors allowed a comprehensive assessment of key front characteristics, including density, velocity, and turbulence. Supplemental drone footage contributed to the overall picture and facilitated the transformation of the dataset into a front-following reference frame. This article provides an in-depth description of the deployment strategy and required postcollection data processing, including frontal crossing detection, the assessment of the frontal orientation from drone footage, and defining the plume bottom boundaries using backscatter intensity contours.

autonomous observations↗

DOE OSTI2023

Think before you throw! An analysis of behavioral interventions targeting PET bottle recycling in the United States

The United States generates 42 Mt of plastic waste each year and is one of the biggest contributors to ocean plastic waste. Consequently, plastic has become synonymous with the linear economy, and many scholars are studying and proposing circular economy solutions to mitigate plastic pollution. Recycling has received much attention from both social sciences and engineering as a circular economy strategy, but no study has yet quantified how behavioral interventions could asymmetrically affect different populations. Here, this study combines agent-based modeling, material flow analysis, system dynamics, and life cycle assessment to assess the effect of four behavioral interventions on the collection rates of polyethylene terephthalate bottle waste, displaced virgin plastic manufacturing, and avoided greenhouse gas (GHG) emissions. Results show that, while behavioral interventions would require about 300–900 GJ of additional energy at end-of-life due to improved collection rates, they would avoid about 500–700 thousand metric tons of GHG emissions. Results also illustrate the importance of habits in disposal behaviors and show that different forms of interventions can be better adapted to particular social contexts than others. While the circular economy and its application to plastic waste should certainly not be restricted to recycling, this study demonstrates that improved collection rates and recycling technologies can contribute to reducing the amount of plastic waste polluting our oceans.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2021

Southwest Pacific tropical cyclone development classification utilizing machine learning and synoptic composites

This study evaluates the ability of machine learning algorithms to classify tropical depressions (TDs) and tropical storms (TSs) in the western region of the southwest Pacific Ocean (SWPO). Decision rules are generated to predict the environment required for a depression to fully develop into a mature storm, and the most influential predictors in the classification decision are ranked. TD and TS are discriminated based on a maximum sustained wind speed threshold (≥17 ms -1 ). Various aerosol, thermodynamic, and dynamic parameters are extracted closest to the initiation point of each non-developing and developing sample. The covariates associated with each labelled sample are used to train a decision tree and random forest model. Results using a testing dataset suggest the random forest approach more accurately distinguishes between non-developing and developing samples. The classification accuracy of the decision tree and random forest are 72% and 91%, respectively. Random forest outperformed the decision tree by providing higher accuracy in test data. The most important variables for binary classification are sea salt aerosol optical depth (AOD), 1,000 mb relative humidity, and sea surface temperature. AOD is a quantitative estimate of the aerosols presents in the air through the extinction of a ray of light as it passes through the atmosphere. Mean composite maps constructed in an unsupervised manner have been created for the most important variables identified by the random forest classifier during TD and TS events to highlight the difference in geophysical and aerosol variables' climatology during the two different classifications. This work will advance the risk management strategies for northeastern Australia and other SWPO basin islands to control their tropical cyclone related losses through prioritizing forecasting variables that are the strongest predictors of the strengthening of tropical depressions into tropical cyclones.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

Characterization of oceanic post-cold frontal clouds and their model representation. Final report

Low-level clouds are ubiquitous over the oceans, and their impact on the Earth’ radiative budget is important. However, general circulation models (GCMs) that are used to represent our climate and its evolution still experience problems to represent their correct amount and radiative impact. In the extratropical latitudes (~30-60 N/S), cloud properties are strongly modulated by the occurrence of anti-cyclones (high pressure systems) and cyclones (low pressure systems). While deep clouds dominate in cyclones near the center and along the cold and warm fronts, low-level clouds populate the colder regions of the cyclones, and more specifically the region in the wake of the cold fronts, the post-cold frontal region (PCF). The GCMs mentioned above were found to underestimate the amount of these PCF clouds, and this caused errors in their representation of the amount of solar radiation at the surface of the southern hemisphere oceans, causing an excess in absorption and errors in long-term predictions. To better understand which processes are ill-represented in the GCMs to cause such issues, we used ground-based observations from the Eastern North Atlantic (ENA) ARM site and a high resolution regional model (called WRF) to examine the properties of PCF clouds. With the WRF model, we simulated the passage of a cold front at the ENA site using theoretically distinct representations of convection and the physics of the boundary layer. While these physical representations had little impact on the timing, structure and circulation of the cold front, we found a high sensitivity to how the large scale information was fed into the model. Errors rapidly developed if the incoming flow information was injected too far from the site, but 1000 km was found to be an optimal distance between the outer boundary and the ENA site for a realistic cold front passage. With this model, we then conducted a series of experiment where convection and boundary layer schemes were changed, and revealed that 1) the clouds were more sensitive to the convection than boundary layer schemes and 2) the interaction between the two has a large impact. Furthermore, changing the representation of the physics in the model had greater impacts on PCF clouds than changing the initial conditions. As large-scale models increase their spatial resolution, convection will eventually be resolved but it remains that their representation of the physics of the boundary layer will matter for the correct representation of shallow (low-level) clouds. Observations were used to find which large-scale information had a clear relationship with PCF cloud and precipitation properties, in view of helping with GCM parameterizations and evaluation. Both lower troposphere stability and surface forcing were found to be important for PCF clouds that experience more vigorous dynamics than their tropical or subtropical counterparts. For cloud base and top heights, a simple measure of the change in potential temperature between the surface and the 800 hPa was found to be a good predictor. This relationship was found to hold as well when using data from campaigns recently conducted in the southern ocean south of Tasmania. A recent GCM was found to succeed in representing similar relations. For cloud depth, water content, and different characteristics of precipitation both the temperature contrast between the surface and near-air and the near-surface wind speed had a strong relationship. To summarize, through observational constraints and regional model experiments, the project has provided guidance to evaluate GCMs and tools to improve their representation of low-level clouds in the extratropics. It has also highlighted differences in behavior between these clouds and those typically found in the subtropics, thus opening new avenues of research for shallow clouds in general.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2025

Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning‐Based Earth System Models

Abstract Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics‐based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop Earth‐system models (ESMs) capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes over long timescales. Building trust in ESMs is a much more difficult problem than for weather forecast models, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future or paleoclimatic) coupled states of the system for which there are no direct observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML‐based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML‐based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML‐based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2021

An oceanic pathway for Madden–Julian Oscillation influence on Maritime Continent Tropical Cyclones

While the Madden–Julian Oscillation (MJO) has been shown to affect tropical cyclones (TCs) worldwide through its modulation of large-scale circulation in the atmosphere, little or no role for the ocean has been identified to date in this influence of MJO on TCs. Using observations and numerical model simulations, we demonstrate that MJO events substantially impact TCs over the Maritime Continent (MC) region through an oceanic pathway. While propagating across the MC region, MJO events cause significant sea surface cooling with an area-averaged value of about 0.35 ± 0.12 °C. Hence, TCs over the MC region immediately following the passage of MJO events encounter considerably cooler sea surface temperatures. Consequently, the enthalpy fluxes under the storms are reduced and the intensification rates decrease by more than 50% on average. These results highlight an important role played by the ocean in facilitating MJO-induced sub-seasonal variability in TC activity over the MC region.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2020

Statistically Steady State Large-Eddy Simulations Forced by an Idealized GCM: 1. Forcing Framework and Simulation Characteristics

Using large-eddy simulations (LES) systematically has the potential to inform parameterizations of subgrid-scale (SGS) processes in general circulation models (GCMs), such as turbulence, convection, and clouds. Here we show how LES can be run to emulate grid columns of GCMs to generate a library of LES across a cross-section of dynamical regimes. The LES setup replicates the thermodynamic and water budgets in GCM grid columns. Resolved horizontal and vertical transports of heat and water and large-scale pressure gradients from the GCM are prescribed as forcing in the LES. The LES satisfies the same (slab-ocean) surface boundary conditions as the GCM, leaving the LES temperatures free to adjust. Radiative transfer is treated in a unied but highly idealized manner (a semi-gray atmosphere without cloud radiative effects) in both the GCM and LES. We show that the LES with these forcing and boundary conditions reaches statistically steady states without nudging to reference profiles. These steady states provide a training dataset for developing GCM parameterizations. The same LES setup also provides a good basis for studying the cloud response to global warming.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗