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DOE OSTI2021

Transportation Hub Infrastructure Expansion: Decision Support Under Uncertainty

The Athena project (www.athena-mobility.org) has worked to investigate the relationship between the Dallas-Fort Worth Airport (DFW) and the greater Dallas area in order to better understand and therefore better inform future decision-making regarding the critical infrastructure that influence mobility between the airport and the city. Through this work, infrastructure related to curbside pickup and drop-off, parking, public transit, and the road network congestion were identified as critical to the operation of the DFW transportation hub. The infrastructure analysis and expansion aspect of the Athena project is focused on the restructuring of the CTA curb as a hierarchical curb and the building or repurposing of parking infrastructure as the interplay between these two areas. Many sources of uncertainty exist that may impact future airport and transportation hub operations, such as passenger volume growth, population demographic changes over time, electric vehicle (EV) adoption rates, and autonomous vehicle (AV) adoption rates. Due to these sources of uncertainty, we have selected for our research a modeling framework that can capture various types of uncertainty and hedge against those uncertainties in the optimization process. We analyze road network and curb congestion, the rise of transportation networking companies, trends in parking usage, existing policies around this infrastructure, airport revenue streams, and other contributing factors to enable infrastructure decision making with less uncertainty. To accomplish this wholistic analysis, we have developed a novel multi-stage, multi-period stochastic optimization model which considers the airport's decisions from 2025-2045 under different possible future macro trajectories and day-to-day variations in operational conditions captured as "annual representation of operations" scenarios with respective probabilities. This model has also been designed to leverage the outputs of various efforts under the Athena project to create a combined decision framework for infrastructure decisions. These various efforts include the route optimization model, the ASPIRES simulation, the mode choice model, and the SUMO traffic simulation. Our computational experiments of this system at scale have resulted in a working version of our infrastructure model which enables the explicit representation and consideration of various sources of uncertainty in the decision process to enable robust, flexible decision-making. This model has been effectively run on NREL's HPC system, Eagle, with large numbers of stochastic scenarios and shows promise as a scalable tool for robust consideration of uncertainties in airport planning. We have tested our model using 30,240 operational circumstances in total, resulting in a problem with more 200 million variables. This model was solved in several different configurations, and a workflow to simulate the performance of the infrastructure model results was developed and deployed. In general, our results indicate that a combination of remote parking, remote curb infrastructure, and dynamic pricing can generate revenue, reduce emissions, accommodate emerging technologies such as AVs and EVs, and manage airport passenger growth over time. We note the success of the proposed strategy depends on the data collection and forecasting abilities of DFW. We have also seen that the AV adoption by TNCs might necessitate larger amounts of remote curb. The results of this work inform strategies for airport infrastructure decision making, as well as demonstrate the value of an adaptable model, but also indicate that there are avenues remaining where further research would be of value.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2023

Capturing Travel Mode Adoption in Designing On-Demand Multimodal Transit Systems

This paper studies how to integrate rider mode preferences into the design of on-demand multimodal transit systems (ODMTSs). It is motivated by a common worry in transit agencies that an ODMTS may be poorly designed if the latent demand, that is, new riders adopting the system, is not captured. This paper proposes a bilevel optimization model to address this challenge, in which the leader problem determines the ODMTS design, and the follower problems identify the most cost efficient and convenient route for riders under the chosen design. The leader model contains a choice model for every potential rider that determines whether the rider adopts the ODMTS given her proposed route. To solve the bilevel optimization model, the paper proposes an exact decomposition method that includes Benders optimal cuts and no-good cuts to ensure the consistency of the rider choices in the leader and follower problems. Moreover, to improve computational efficiency, the paper proposes upper and lower bounds on trip durations for the follower problems, valid inequalities that strengthen the no-good cuts, and approaches to reduce the problem size with problem-specific preprocessing techniques. The proposed method is validated using an extensive computational study on a real data set from the Ann Arbor Area Transportation Authority, the transit agency for the broader Ann Arbor and Ypsilanti region in Michigan. The study considers the impact of a number of factors, including the price of on-demand shuttles, the number of hubs, and access to transit systems criteria. The designed ODMTSs feature high adoption rates and significantly shorter trip durations compared with the existing transit system and highlight the benefits of ensuring access for low-income riders. Finally, the computational study demonstrates the efficiency of the decomposition method for the case study and the benefits of computational enhancements that improve the baseline method by several orders of magnitude. Funding: This research was partly supported by National Science Foundation [Leap HI Proposal NSF-1854684] and the Department of Energy [Research Award 7F-30154].

Operations Research & Management Science↗

DOE OSTI2015

An optimization framework for workplace charging strategies

The workplace charging (WPC) has been recently recognized as the most important secondary charging point next to residential charging for plug-in electric vehicles (PEVs). The current WPC practice is spontaneous and grants every PEV a designated charger, which may not be practical or economic when there are a large number of PEVs present at workplace. This study is the first research undertaken that develops an optimization framework for WPC strategies to satisfy all charging demand while explicitly addressing different eligible levels of charging technology and employees’ demographic distributions. The optimization model is to minimize the lifetime cost of equipment, installations, and operations, and is formulated as an integer program. We demonstrate the applicability of the model using numerical examples based on national average data. The results indicate that the proposed optimization model can reduce the total cost of running a WPC system by up to 70% compared to the current practice. The WPC strategies are sensitive to the time windows and installation costs, and dominated by the PEV population size. The WPC has also been identified as an alternative sustainable transportation program to the public transit subsidy programs for both economic and environmental advantages.

Optimization↗

NASA NTRS1981

Geomagnetic modeling by optimal recursive filtering

The results of a preliminary study to determine the feasibility of using Kalman filter techniques for geomagnetic field modeling are given. Specifically, five separate field models were computed using observatory annual means, satellite, survey and airborne data for the years 1950 to 1976. Each of the individual field models used approximately five years of data. These five models were combined using a recursive information filter (a Kalman filter written in terms of information matrices rather than covariance matrices.) The resulting estimate of the geomagnetic field and its secular variation was propogated four years past the data to the time of the MAGSAT data. The accuracy with which this field model matched the MAGSAT data was evaluated by comparisons with predictions from other pre-MAGSAT field models. The field estimate obtained by recursive estimation was found to be superior to all other models.

Gibbs, B. P.↗

NASA NTRS1991

Existence and uniqueness proof for the minimum model error optimal estimation algorithm

A general solution to the jump-discontinuous two-point boundary value problem (TPBVP) of the minimum model error is presented. Its existence and uniqueness are then proved.

Mook, Joseph↗

NASA NTRS2024

Intermediate Temperature Ceramic Heat Pipe Modeling and Optimization

Spacecraft nuclear electric propulsion, as well as other emerging technologies, can benefit from heat pipes with optimal performance in the intermediate temperature, 450–700 K, regime. In this work, a 1D model was developed to investigate the performance of halide working fluids coupled with 3D printed-ceramic shells to operate at 500–600 K and interface with a nuclear electric propulsion system. An initial conceptual design and performance limits of a 3D printed-AlN heat pipe radiator with AlBr 3 as the working fluid is presented. An areal density of 5.2 kg/m 2 and mass per unit heat performance of 1.00kg/kW is estimated.

thermal management↗

DOE OSTI2014

Modeling and optimizing of the random atomic spin gyroscope drift based on the atomic spin gyroscope

In order to improve the atom spin gyroscope's operational accuracy and compensate the random error caused by the nonlinear and weak-stability characteristic of the random atomic spin gyroscope (ASG) drift, the hybrid random drift error model based on autoregressive (AR) and genetic programming (GP) + genetic algorithm (GA) technique is established. The time series of random ASG drift is taken as the study object. The time series of random ASG drift is acquired by analyzing and preprocessing the measured data of ASG. The linear section model is established based on AR technique. After that, the nonlinear section model is built based on GP technique and GA is used to optimize the coefficients of the mathematic expression acquired by GP in order to obtain a more accurate model. The simulation result indicates that this hybrid model can effectively reflect the characteristics of the ASG's random drift. The square error of the ASG's random drift is reduced by 92.40%. Comparing with the AR technique and the GP + GA technique, the random drift is reduced by 9.34% and 5.06%, respectively. The hybrid modeling method can effectively compensate the ASG's random drift and improve the stability of the system.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗

DOE OSTI2016

Graphical models for optimal power flow

Optimal power flow (OPF) is the central optimization problem in electric power grids. Although solved routinely in the course of power grid operations, it is known to be strongly NP-hard in general, and weakly NP-hard over tree networks. In this paper, we formulate the optimal power flow problem over tree networks as an inference problem over a tree-structured graphical model where the nodal variables are low-dimensional vectors. We adapt the standard dynamic programming algorithm for inference over a tree-structured graphical model to the OPF problem. Combining this with an interval discretization of the nodal variables, we develop an approximation algorithm for the OPF problem. Further, we use techniques from constraint programming (CP) to perform interval computations and adaptive bound propagation to obtain practically efficient algorithms. Compared to previous algorithms that solve OPF with optimality guarantees using convex relaxations, our approach is able to work for arbitrary tree-structured distribution networks and handle mixed-integer optimization problems. Further, it can be implemented in a distributed message-passing fashion that is scalable and is suitable for “smart grid” applications like control of distributed energy resources. In conclusion, numerical evaluations on several benchmark networks show that practical OPF problems can be solved effectively using this approach.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

Machine Learning-Assisted High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage Optimization: Numerical Modeling and Machine Learning Input and Output Files

This data set includes the numerical modeling input files and output files used to synthesize data, and the reduced-order machine learning models trained from the synthesized data for reservoir thermal energy storage site identification. In this study, a machine-learning-assisted computational framework is presented to identify High-Temperature Reservoir Thermal Energy Storage (HT-RTES) site with optimal performance metrics by combining physics-based simulation with stochastic hydrogeologic formation and thermal energy storage operation parameters, artificial neural network regression of the simulation data, and genetic algorithm-enabled multi-objective optimization. A doublet well configuration with a layered (aquitard-aquifer-aquitard) generic reservoir is simulated for cases of continuous operation and seasonal-cycle operation scenarios. Neural network-based surrogate models are developed for the two scenarios and applied to generate the Pareto fronts of the HT-RTES performance for four potential HT-RTES sites. The developed Pareto optimal solutions indicate the performance of HT-RTES is operation-scenario (i.e., fluid cycle) and reservoir-site dependent, and the performance metrics have competing effects for a given site and a given fluid cycle. The developed neural network models can be applied to identify suitable sites for HT-RTES, and the proposed framework sheds light on the design of resilient HT-RTES systems. All the simulations and the neural network model were done by Idaho National Laboratory. A detailed description of the work was reported in publication linked below.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗

NASA NTRS1985

Probabilistic computer model of optimal runway turnoffs

Landing delays are currently a problem at major air carrier airports and many forecasters agree that airport congestion will get worse by the end of the century. It is anticipated that some types of delays can be reduced by an efficient optimal runway exist system allowing increased approach volumes necessary at congested airports. A computerized Probabilistic Runway Turnoff Model which locates exits and defines path geometry for a selected maximum occupancy time appropriate for each TERPS aircraft category is defined. The model includes an algorithm for lateral ride comfort limits.

Schoen, M. L.↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

NASA’s Electrified Powertrain Flight Demonstration (EPFD) project conducts ground and flight tests of integrated Megawatt (MW) class hybrid-electric powertrain systems on regional turboprop aircraft demonstrators. To meet the increased demand for assessment of potential capabilities and benefits from these novel vehicle configurations, NASA is developing tooling and models to estimate the performance of hybridized regional turboprops. This paper covers the development of a parametrically driven performance model for a De Havilland Canada Dash 8-400 (Q400) regional turboprop integrated with a novel parallel hybrid architecture using the Gascon framework. Gascon is a modern reimplementation of the General Aviation Synthesis Program (GASP) built using the Condor mathematical modeling framework in Python. Within Gascon, a parametric representation of the parallel hybrid architecture was synthesized, which features the electric motor coupled to the power turbine. This capability allows for in-the-loop optimization of the parametric parallel hybrid architecture to characterize the mission capabilities and fuel savings of the design and determine optimal power scheduling strategies for efficient electric power management for a given mission. The study shows that a fuel savings of up to 20% can be achieved, but that increased fuel savings comes at the expense of payload capacity.

Gascon↗

DOE OSTI2026

Hydrogen Infrastructure Modeling and Optimization

HyET, established in 2008, is a small business developing electro-chemical hydrogen compressors. HyET’s goals are for a low-cost, efficient, high-pressure compressor ready for market and installation into hydrogen infrastructure stations servicing mobile fuel cell applications. NLR has been working on hydrogen infrastructure research for over a decade and includes electrolyzer production via electrolysis, storage, compression, dispensing, safety, and performance validation. Accelerating technologies into the marketplace is one goal of NLR’s hydrogen research. Therefore, HyET and NLR have teamed up to provide one year of support for HyET’s modeling and small-scale experiments optimization efforts for HyET’s next-generation electro-chemical compressor.

08 HYDROGEN↗

NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Parallel Hybrid Turboprop Performance Modeling and Optimization

Gascon↗

DOE OSTI2018

Integrating diagnostics and model-based optimization

Energy Management and Information Systems are a family of analytics technologies that include energy information systems, fault detection and diagnostics (FDD), and automated system optimization tools. Such systems have the potential to enable buildings to meet energy management goals of reducing total energy consumption and cost. Most current market offerings use data-driven and rule-based analytics. However, the use of physics-based models in the analytics offers potential improvements by providing an accurate estimation of outputs based on representation of the physical principles governing the building system behaviors. This also permits the use of design stage models to inform commissioning and operation. This paper describes the development and testing of a hybrid data-driven and physics model-based operational tool for energy efficiency in central cooling plants. The tool offers FDD functionality, setpoint optimization, and visualization of key performance parameters. It was demonstrated at a university campus in the mixed-humid ASHRAE Climate Zone 4A. Key performance metrics that were analyzed include plant electricity use reduction, plant model calibration, and system economics. Annual simulations indicate the tool can provide electricity savings of greater than 10% for approximately six months of the year, mainly during the winter season when wet bulb temperatures are low, though only 1.38% savings for the entire year. Additionally, over a 4-day period in April, recommended optimal setpoints were implemented, resulting in 17% savings versus metered baseline consumption. With respect to model calibration, the difference between model-predicted and measured parameters was less than 10% for 90% of data points acquired for three of six chillers, and for each ten cooling towers. Finally, the tool users reported that satisfaction with the capabilities was equal to or better than that with the preexisting BAS system.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

NASA NTRS2004

A practical six-degree of freedom solar sail dynamics model for optimizing solar sail trajectories with torque constraints

Controlled flight of a solar sail-propelled spacecraft ('sailcraft') is a six-degree-of-freedom dynamics problem. Current state-of-the-art tools that simulate and optimize the trajectories flown by sailcraft do not treat the full kinetic (i.e. force and torque-constrained) motion, instead treating a discrete history of commanded sail attitudes, and either neglecting the sail attitude motion over an integration timestep, or treating the attitude evolution kinematically with a spline or similar treatment. The present paper discusses an aspect of developing a next generation sailcraf trajectory designing optimization tool JPL, for NASA's Solar Sail Spaceflight Simulation Software (SS). The aspect discussed in an experimental approach to modeling full six-degree-of-freedom kinetic motion of a solar sail in a trajectory propagator. Early results from implementing this approach in a new trajectory propagation tool are given.

six-degree-of-freedom↗

NASA NTRS2006

Model Predictive Optimal Control of a Time-Delay Distributed-Parameter Systems

This paper presents an optimal control method for a class of distributed-parameter systems governed by first order, quasilinear hyperbolic partial differential equations that arise in many physical systems. Such systems are characterized by time delays since information is transported from one state to another by wave propagation. A general closed-loop hyperbolic transport model is controlled by a boundary control embedded in a periodic boundary condition. The boundary control is subject to a nonlinear differential equation constraint that models actuator dynamics of the system. The hyperbolic equation is thus coupled with the ordinary differential equation via the boundary condition. Optimality of this coupled system is investigated using variational principles to seek an adjoint formulation of the optimal control problem. The results are then applied to implement a model predictive control design for a wind tunnel to eliminate a transport delay effect that causes a poor Mach number regulation.

Nguyen, Nhan↗

DOE OSTI2019

Statistical and machine learning models for optimizing energy in parallel applications

Rising power costs and constraints are driving a growing focus on the energy efficiency of high performance computing systems. The unique characteristics of a particular system and workload and their effect on performance and energy efficiency are typically difficult for application users to assess and to control. Settings for optimum performance and energy efficiency can also diverge, so we need to identify trade-off options that guide a suitable balance between energy use and performance. We present statistical and machine learning models that only require a small number of runs to make accurate Pareto-optimal trade-off predictions using parameters that users can control. We study model training and validation using several parallel kernels and more complex workloads, including Algebraic Multigrid (AMG), Large-scale Atomic Molecular Massively Parallel Simulator, and Livermore Unstructured Lagrangian Explicit Shock Hydrodynamics. Here, we demonstrate that we can train the models using as few as 12 runs, with prediction error of less than 10%. Our AMG results identify trade-off options that provide up to 45% improvement in energy efficiency for around 10% performance loss. We reduce the sample measurement time required for AMG by 90%, from 13 h to 74 min.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Models, Indices & Optimization Algorithms for Pricing & Hedging Reliability Risks in Modern Power Grids: Data Plan - Princeton

We collected and cleaned the synthetic grid data produced by NREL for the Texas and New York synthetic grids. We developed a high dimensional joint stochastic model for load at the zone level, and solar and wind power productions at the asset level, capturing the spatial and temporal dependencies between all the variables, and demonstrated how such a model could be fitted to historical data. We designed and implemented a simulation engine which can produce Monte Carlo scenarios for the hourly day-ahead values of load, and solar and wind power productions at the spatial and temporal resolutions of the historical data used to fit the model. Finally we developed an open-source Python package which can, from an input grid model, efficiently use forecasts and large numbers of Monte Carlo scenarios to provide unit commitment and economic dispatch for each of these scenarios. The high dimensional stochastic model and the subsequent Monte Carlo simulation engine were implemented in the package PGscen and the corresponding UC and ED optimization programs in the package Vatic.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗