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All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2020

Flow-based likelihoods for non-Gaussian inference

We investigate the use of data-driven likelihoods to bypass a key assumption made in many scientific analyses, which is that the true likelihood of the data is Gaussian. In particular, we suggest using the optimization targets of flow-based generative models, a class of models that can capture complex distributions by transforming a simple base distribution through layers of nonlinearities. We call these flow-based likelihoods (FBL). We analyze the accuracy and precision of the reconstructed likelihoods on mock Gaussian data, and show that simply gauging the quality of samples drawn from the trained model is not a sufficient indicator that the true likelihood has been learned. We nevertheless demonstrate that the likelihood can be reconstructed to a precision equal to that of sampling error due to a finite sample size. We then apply FBLs to mock weak lensing convergence power spectra, a cosmological observable that is significantly non-Gaussian (NG). We find that the FBL captures the NG signatures in the data extremely well, while other commonly used data-driven likelihoods, such as Gaussian mixture models and independent component analysis, fail to do so. This suggests that works that have found small posterior shifts in NG data with data-driven likelihoods such as these could be underestimating the impact of non-Gaussianity in parameter constraints. By introducing a suite of tests that can capture different levels of NG in the data, we show that the success or failure of traditional data-driven likelihoods can be tied back to the structure of the NG in the data. Here, unlike other methods, the flexibility of the FBL makes it successful at tackling different types of NG simultaneously. Because of this, and consequently their likely applicability across datasets and domains, we encourage their use for inference when sufficient mock data are available for training.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2014

SU-F-BRD-07: Empirical Derivation of Site-Specific Margin Formulas

Purpose: To empirically derive margin formulas from existing clinical radiotherapy plans accounting for respiratory motion and setup uncertainties. Methods: We simulated realistic treatment scenarios, including respiratory motion and setup errors. Individual probability density functions (PDF) from respiratory data were used to simulate respiratory motion. Random (σ) and systematic (Σ) setup errors were modeled as Gaussian distributions. One-dimensional dose profiles were extracted from existing radiotherapy plans and convolved with respiratory PDFs and random error distributions to produce blurred dose profiles. Each blurred dose profile was then shifted 1000 times by randomly sampling the simulated systematic error distribution. Margins were determined from the distance between the simulated treatment and the original 95% isodose level. An equation was fit for each (σ, Σ) combination to derive margin formulas for 90% of the population receiving 95% dose. This methodology can be applied to different tumor sites. Here, dose profiles were extracted from partial breast 3DCRT plans in the anterior-posterior (AP) and superior-inferior (SI) directions. Respiratory motion data was from healthy volunteers, and a clinically relevant range of random and systematic setup errors (standard deviations 1 – 4 mm) was determined from the literature. Results: The PBI margin formulas in the AP and SI directions for 95% dose coverage for 90% of the population were very similar: M= 0.68σ + 1.54Σ and M= 0.72σ + 1.50Σ, respectively. Systematic setup errors had the largest influence on required margin size, whereas realistic respiratory amplitude had minimal impact. The derived formulas resulted in a smaller systematic component than commonly-used theoretical margin recipes. Conclusion: We have demonstrated a method to derive empirical margin formulas from existing patient radiotherapy plans, incorporating realistic respiratory motion and appropriate ranges of random and systematic error. Site-specific margin formulas may be better suited to patient populations than theoretically derived, ideal geometry general margin formulas.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2014

WE-E-BRE-05: Ensemble of Graphical Models for Predicting Radiation Pneumontis Risk

Purpose: We propose a prior knowledge-based approach to construct an interaction graph of biological and dosimetric radiation pneumontis (RP) covariates for the purpose of developing a RP risk classifier. Methods: We recruited 59 NSCLC patients who received curative radiotherapy with minimum 6 month follow-up. 16 RP events was observed (CTCAE grade ≥2). Blood serum was collected from every patient before (pre-RT) and during RT (mid-RT). From each sample the concentration of the following five candidate biomarkers were taken as covariates: alpha-2-macroglobulin (α2M), angiotensin converting enzyme (ACE), transforming growth factor β (TGF-β), interleukin-6 (IL-6), and osteopontin (OPN). Dose-volumetric parameters were also included as covariates. The number of biological and dosimetric covariates was reduced by a variable selection scheme implemented by L1-regularized logistic regression (LASSO). Posterior probability distribution of interaction graphs between the selected variables was estimated from the data under the literature-based prior knowledge to weight more heavily the graphs that contain the expected associations. A graph ensemble was formed by averaging the most probable graphs weighted by their posterior, creating a Bayesian Network (BN)-based RP risk classifier. Results: The LASSO selected the following 7 RP covariates: (1) pre-RT concentration level of α2M, (2) α2M level mid- RT/pre-RT, (3) pre-RT IL6 level, (4) IL6 level mid-RT/pre-RT, (5) ACE mid-RT/pre-RT, (6) PTV volume, and (7) mean lung dose (MLD). The ensemble BN model achieved the maximum sensitivity/specificity of 81%/84% and outperformed univariate dosimetric predictors as shown by larger AUC values (0.78∼0.81) compared with MLD (0.61), V20 (0.65) and V30 (0.70). The ensembles obtained by incorporating the prior knowledge improved classification performance for the ensemble size 5∼50. Conclusion: We demonstrated a probabilistic ensemble method to detect robust associations between RP covariates and its potential to improve RP prediction accuracy. Our Bayesian approach to incorporate prior knowledge can enhance efficiency in searching of such associations from data. The authors acknowledge partial support by: 1) CREATE Medical Physics Research Training Network grant of the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council (Grant number: 432290) and 2) The Terry Fox Foundation Strategic Training Initiative for Excellence in Radiation Research for the 21st Century (EIRR21)

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Bayesian Monte Carlo Evaluation Framework for Cross Sections Nuclear Data and Integral Benchmark Experiments

The new Bayesian Monte Carlo (MC) evaluation framework described in this abstract has been conceived as an attempt to improve nuclear data evaluations of differential crosssection data by removing the following two approximations conventionally employed for nuclear data evaluations: all probability density functions (PDFs) of all data and model parameters, both prior and posterior, are assumed to be normal (i.e., Gaussian) PDFs, and all uncertainties and covariances are propagated using a linear approximation. With these approximations removed, the Bayesian MC (BMC) framework could be used to account for nonlinear effects and would enable improved evaluations of differential cross sections and IBE data that are presently performed based on the assumptions itemized above. The BMC would also improve upon the uniform sampling of IBE parameters from within ranges defined by their evaluated uncertainties.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

A dark siren measurement of the Hubble constant using gravitational wave events from the first three LIGO/Virgo observing runs and DELVE

The current and next observation seasons will detect hundreds of gravitational waves (GWs) from compact binary systems coalescence at cosmological distances. When combined with independent electromagnetic measurements, the source redshift will be known, and we will be able to obtain precise measurements of the Hubble constant H_0 via the distance–redshift relation. However, most observed mergers are not expected to have electromagnetic counterparts, which prevents a direct redshift measurement. In this scenario, one possibility is to use the dark sirens method that statistically marginalizes over all the potential host galaxies within the GW location volume to provide a probabilistic source redshift. Here we presented H_0 measurements using two new dark sirens compared to previous analyses using DECam data: GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313. The photometric redshifts of the possible host galaxies of these two events are acquired from the DECam Local Volume Exploration Survey (DELVE) carried out on the Blanco telescope at Cerro Tololo. The combination of the H_0 posterior from GW190924|$\_$|021846 and GW200202|$\_$|154313 together with the bright siren GW170817 leads to |$H_{0} = 68.84^{+15.51}_{-7.74}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠. Including these two dark sirens improves the 68 per cent confidence interval (CI) by 7 per cent over GW170817 alone. This demonstrates that the addition of well-localized dark sirens in such analysis improves the precision of cosmological measurements. Using a sample containing 10 well-localized dark sirens observed during the third LIGO/Virgo observation run, without the inclusion of GW170817, we determine a measurement of |$H_{0} = 76.00^{+17.64}_{-13.45}\, \rm {km\, s^{-1}\, Mpc^{-1}}$|⁠.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2025

CaloChallenge 2022: a community challenge for fast calorimeter simulation

Here, we present the results of the ‘Fast Calorimeter Simulation Challenge 2022’—the CaloChallenge. We study state-of-the-art generative models on four calorimeter shower datasets of increasing dimensionality, ranging from a few hundred voxels to a few tens of thousand voxels. The 31 individual submissions span a wide range of current popular generative architectures, including variational autoencoders (VAEs), generative adversarial networks (GANs), normalizing flows, diffusion models, and models based on conditional flow matching. We compare all submissions in terms of quality of generated calorimeter showers, as well as shower generation time and model size. To assess the quality we use a broad range of different metrics including differences in one-dimensional histograms of observables, KPD/FPD scores, AUCs of binary classifiers, and the log-posterior of a multiclass classifier. The results of the CaloChallenge provide the most complete and comprehensive survey of cutting-edge approaches to calorimeter fast simulation to date. In addition, our work provides a uniquely detailed perspective on the important problem of how to evaluate generative models. As such, the results presented here should be applicable for other domains that use generative AI and require fast and faithful generation of samples in a large phase space.

46 INSTRUMENTATION RELATED TO NUCLEAR SCIENCE AND ↗
NASA NTRS2005

Generalized Maximum Entropy

A long standing mystery in using Maximum Entropy (MaxEnt) is how to deal with constraints whose values are uncertain. This situation arises when constraint values are estimated from data, because of finite sample sizes. One approach to this problem, advocated by E.T. Jaynes [1], is to ignore this uncertainty, and treat the empirically observed values as exact. We refer to this as the classic MaxEnt approach. Classic MaxEnt gives point probabilities (subject to the given constraints), rather than probability densities. We develop an alternative approach that assumes that the uncertain constraint values are represented by a probability density {e.g: a Gaussian), and this uncertainty yields a MaxEnt posterior probability density. That is, the classic MaxEnt point probabilities are regarded as a multidimensional function of the given constraint values, and uncertainty on these values is transmitted through the MaxEnt function to give uncertainty over the MaXEnt probabilities. We illustrate this approach by explicitly calculating the generalized MaxEnt density for a simple but common case, then show how this can be extended numerically to the general case. This paper expands the generalized MaxEnt concept introduced in a previous paper [3].

Cheeseman, Peter↗
DOE OSTI2024

Fast and Flexible Inference Framework for Continuum Reverberation Mapping Using Simulation-based Inference with Deep Learning

Continuum reverberation mapping (CRM) of active galactic nuclei (AGN) monitors multiwavelength variability signatures to constrain accretion disk structure and supermassive black hole (SMBH) properties. The upcoming Vera Rubin Observatory’s Legacy Survey of Space and Time will survey tens of millions of AGN over the next decade, with thousands of AGN monitored with almost daily cadence in the deep drilling fields. However, existing CRM methodologies often require long computation time and are not designed to handle such large amounts of data. In this paper, we present a fast and flexible inference framework for CRM using simulation-based inference (SBI) with deep learning to estimate SMBH properties from AGN light curves. We use a long short-term memory summary network to reduce the high dimensionality of the light curve data and then use a neural density estimator to estimate the posterior of SMBH parameters. Using simulated light curves, we find SBI can produce more accurate SMBH parameter estimation with 10 3 –10 5 times speed up in inference efficiency compared to traditional methods. The SBI framework is particularly suitable for wide-field CRM surveys as the light curves will have identical observing patterns, which can be incorporated into the SBI simulation. We explore the performance of our SBI model on light curves with irregular-sampled, realistic observing cadence and alternative variability characteristics to demonstrate the flexibility and limitation of the SBI framework.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS2018

Effect of Ex Vivo Ionizing Radiation on Static and Fatigue Properties of Mouse Vertebral Bodies

For a variety of medical and scientific reasons, human bones can be exposed to a wide range of ionizing radiation levels. In vivo radiation therapy (0.05 kGy) is used in cancer treatment, and ex vivo irradiation (25-35 kGy) is used to sterilize bone allografts. Ionizing radiation in these applications has been shown to increase risk of fracture, decrease bone quality and degrade collagen integrity. Past studies have investigated the deleterious effects of radiation on cortical or trabecular bone specimens individually, but to date no studies have examined whole bones containing both cortical and trabecular tissue. Furthermore, a clear relationship between the dose and the mechanical and biochemical response of bone's extracellular matrix has yet to be established for doses ranging from cancer therapy to allograft sterilization (0.05-35 kGy). To gain insight into these issues, we conducted an ex vivo radiation study to investigate non-cellular (i.e. matrix) effects of ionizing radiation dose on vertebral whole bone mechanical properties, over a range of radiation doses (0.05-35 kGy), with a focus on any radiation-induced changes in collagen. With underlying mechanisms of action in mind, we hypothesized that any induced reductions in mechanical properties would be associated with changes in collagen integrity. METHODS: 20-week old female mice were euthanized and the lumbar spine was dissected using IACUC approved protocols. The lumbar vertebrae (L1- S1) were extracted from the spine via cuts through adjacent intervertebral discs, and the endplates, posterior processes, surrounding musculature, and soft tissues were removed (approx. 1.5mm diameter, approx. 2mm height). Specimens were randomly assigned to one of five groups for ex vivo radiation exposure: x-ray irradiation at 0.05, 1, 17, or 35 kGy, or a 0 kGy control. Following irradiation, the vertebrae were imaged using microcomputed tomography (micro-CT) and then subjected to either monotonic compressive loading to failure or uniform cyclic compressive loading. During cyclic testing, samples were loaded in force control to a force level that corresponded to a strain of 0.46%, as determined in advance by a linearly elastic micro-CT-based finite element analysis for each specimen. Tests were stopped at imminent fracture, defined as a rapid increase in strain. The main outcome for the monotonic test was the strength (maximum force); for cyclic testing it was the fatigue life (log of the number of cycles of loading at imminent failure). A fluorometric assay was used on the S1 vertebrae to measure the number of non-enzymatic collagen crosslinks[4]. A one-way ANOVA was performed on mechanical properties and collagen crosslinks; means were compared with controls using Dunnett's method, with a Tukey-Kramer post-hoc analysis when significance was found (p < or = 0.05). RESULTS: Compared to the unirradiated control group, the concentration of non-enzymatic collagen crosslinks was significantly increased for all irradiated groups (p < 0.0001), and being higher by at least 50% (Figure 1a). By contrast, the radiation effects on the collagen were only evident at the higher doses. For irradiation exposures of 17 kGy or more, strength decreased substantially as the radiation level was increased, but no effect was evident below 17 kGy (Figure 1b). There was no significant change in the stiffness or maximum displacement for any radiation dose (p>0.05). The finite element analysis prescribed force level for cyclic loading exceeded the measured (monotonic) strength of the 17 and 35 kGy irradiated groups (mean +/- SD, 20.6 +/- 5.6 N; 13.2 +/- 3.7 N, respectively) and therefore these groups were eliminated from the fatigue study. The fatigue life for the 0.05 and 1 kGy groups were similar to each other and were not statistically significantly different from the control group (Figure 1c).

radiation↗
DOE OSTI2021

Characterization and Development of the Male Shoulder Shield in an Introduced Wild Pig Population

A sample of 721 males from an introduced wild pig population in western South Carolina was examined to better describe the unique structure known as the shoulder shield in this species. The shield initially developed as early as 9-12 months of age, and then increased to be found in all adults (36 months of age or older). Growth of the structure began in the central lateral shoulder region and increased to cover an area extending from the posterior neck back to the anterior hips, and from the middorsum down to the proximal margin of the exposed portion of the front leg. The shield dimensions (i.e., length, height and thickness) increased with age, physical size, and body mass of the boar. The thickness varied seasonally, being greatest during the annual peak of conception. The thickness was also positively correlated with the animal’s body condition, implying a potential for a nutritional influence affecting that dimension, and possibly also an energy storage function. Injuries indicative of male-male fighting were primarily found on portions of the body covered by the shield. This corroborates the function of this structure as being protective in such male-male aggressive encounters in this species.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2015

Preclinical investigation for developing injectable fiducial markers using a mixture of BaSO{sub 4} and biodegradable polymer for proton therapy

Purpose: The aim of this study is to investigate the use of mixture of BaSO{sub 4} and biodegradable polymer as an injectable nonmetallic fiducial marker to reduce artifacts in x-ray images, decrease the absorbed dose distortion in proton therapy, and replace permanent metal markers. Methods: Two samples were made with 90 wt. % polymer phosphate buffer saline (PBS) and 10 wt. % BaSO{sub 4} (B1) or 20 wt. % BaSO{sub 4} (B2). Two animal models (mice and rats) were used. To test the injectability and in vivo gelation, a volume of 200 μl at a pH 5.8 were injected into the Sprague-Dawley rats. After sacrificing the rats over time, the authors checked the gel morphology. Detectability of the markers in the x-ray images was tested for two sizes (diameters of 1 and 2 mm) for B1 and B2. Four samples were injected into BALB/C mice. The polymer mixed with BaSO{sub 4} transform from SOL at 20 °C with a pH of 6.0 to GEL in the living body at 37 °C with a pH of 7.4, so the size of the fiducial marker could be controlled by adjusting the injected volume. The detectability of the BaSO{sub 4} marker was measured in x-ray images of cone beam CT (CBCT), on-board imager [anterior–posterior (AP), lateral], and fluoroscopy (AP, lateral) using a Novalis-TX (Varian Medical Systems, Palo Alto, CA) repeatedly over 4 months. The volume, HU, and artifacts for the markers were measured in the CBCT images. Artifacts were compared to those of gold marker by analyzing the HU distribution. The dose distortion in proton therapy was computed by using a Monte Carlo (MC) code. A cylindrical shaped marker (diameter: 1 or 2 mm, length: 3 mm) made of gold, stainless-steel [304], titanium, and 20 wt. % BaSO{sub 4} was positioned at the center of the spread-out Bragg peak (SOBP) in parallel or perpendicular to the beam entrance. The dose distortion was measured on the depth dose profile across the markers. Results: Transformation to GEL and the biodegradation were verified. All BaSO{sub 4} markers could be detected in the CBCT. In the OBI and fluoroscopy images, all markers visible in the AP, but only B2(2 mm) could be identified in the lateral images. Changes of BaSO{sub 4} position were not detected in vivo (mice). The volume of the markers decreased by up to 65% and the HU increased by 22%, on average. The mean HU values around the B1, B2, and gold markers were 121.30 [standard deviation (SD): 54.86], 126.31 (SD: 62.13), and 1070.7 (SD: 235.16), respectively. The MC-simulated dose distortion for the BaSO{sub 4} markers was less than that of the commercially used markers. The dose reduction due to the gold marker was largest (15.05%) followed by stainless steel (7.92%) and titanium (6.92%). Dose reduction by B2 (2 mm) was 4.75% and 0.53% in parallel and perpendicular orientations, respectively. Conclusions: BaSO{sub 4} mixed with PBS is a good contrast agent in biodegradable polymer marker because of minimal artifacts in x-ray images and minimal dose reduction in proton therapy. The flexibility of the size is considered to be an advantage of this material over solid type fiducials.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Non-Gaussianity in the weak lensing correlation function likelihood – implications for cosmological parameter biases

ABSTRACT We study the significance of non-Gaussianity in the likelihood of weak lensing shear two-point correlation functions, detecting significantly non-zero skewness and kurtosis in 1D marginal distributions of shear two-point correlation functions in simulated weak lensing data. We examine the implications in the context of future surveys, in particular LSST, with derivations of how the non-Gaussianity scales with survey area. We show that there is no significant bias in 1D posteriors of Ωm and σ8 due to the non-Gaussian likelihood distributions of shear correlations functions using the mock data (100 deg2). We also present a systematic approach to constructing approximate multivariate likelihoods with 1D parametric functions by assuming independence or more flexible non-parametric multivariate methods after decorrelating the data points using principal component analysis (PCA). While the use of PCA does not modify the non-Gaussianity of the multivariate likelihood, we find empirically that the 1D marginal sampling distributions of the PCA components exhibit less skewness and kurtosis than the original shear correlation functions. Modelling the likelihood with marginal parametric functions based on the assumption of independence between PCA components thus gives a lower limit for the biases. We further demonstrate that the difference in cosmological parameter constraints between the multivariate Gaussian likelihood model and more complex non-Gaussian likelihood models would be even smaller for an LSST-like survey. In addition, the PCA approach automatically serves as a data compression method, enabling the retention of the majority of the cosmological information while reducing the dimensionality of the data vector by a factor of ∼5.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Molecular and morphological characterization of a first report of Cactodera torreyanae Cid del Prado Vera & Subbotin, 2014 (Nematoda: Heteroderidae) from Minnesota, the United States of America

Cactodera torreyanae Cid del Prado Vera & Subbotin, 2014 cysts were discovered during a Pale Potato Cyst Nematode (PCN) survey conducted by Minnesota Department of Agriculture as part of the Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service (APHIS) efforts to survey states for the presence of PCN. The soil samples were collected from a potato field, located in Karlstad, Kittson County, Minnesota, USA. Two out of 175 vials submitted for identification to the Mycology and Nematology Genetic Diversity and Biology Laboratory (MNGDBL) contained few cysts and juveniles of C. torreyanae. Cysts were dark brown in color, lemon-shaped to elongated with distinct vulval cone. Vulva with denticles present around fenestra, cyst length to width ratio between 1.6 and 2.3 and anus distinct. The juveniles had rounded stylet knobs, some sloping slightly posteriorly. The molecular analysis included sequence and phylogenetic analysis of ITS rRNA, D2-D3 expansion segments of 28S rRNA and COI of mtDNA genes. The nematode species was identified by both morphological and molecular means as Cactodera torreyanae. To the best of our knowledge this represents the first report of Cactodera torreyanae from the United States and first report of this cyst nematode species from potato fields. Definite host plant for this nematode remains unknown.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

A Strong Gravitational Lens Is Worth a Thousand Dark Matter Halos: Inference on Small-scale Structure Using Sequential Methods

Strong gravitational lenses are a singular probe of the Universe’s small-scale structure—they are sensitive to the gravitational effects of low-mass (<10 10 M ⊙ ) halos even without a luminous counterpart. Recent strong-lensing analyses of dark matter structure rely on simulation-based inference (SBI). Modern SBI methods, which leverage neural networks as density estimators, have shown promise in extracting the halo-population signal. However, it is unclear whether the constraints from these models are limited by the methodology or the data. In this study, we introduce an accelerator-optimized simulation pipeline that can generate lens images with realistic subhalo populations in milliseconds. Leveraging this simulator, we identify the main limitation of our fiducial SBI analysis: training set size. We then adopt a sequential neural posterior estimation (SNPE) approach, allowing us to refine the training distribution to align with the observed data. Using only one-fifth as many mock Hubble Space Telescope images, SNPE matches the constraints on the low-mass halo population produced by our best nonsequential model. Our experiments suggest that an over 3 order-of-magnitude increase in training set size and GPU hours would be required to achieve an equivalent result without sequential methods. While the full potential of the existing lens sample remains to be explored, the notable improvement in constraining power enabled by our sequential approach highlights that current constraints are limited primarily by methodology and not the data itself. Moreover, our results emphasize the need to treat training set generation and model optimization as interconnected stages of any cosmological analysis using SBI.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Precision Measurement of Neutrino Oscillation Parameters with 10 Years of Data from the NOvA Experiment

This Letter reports measurements of muon-neutrino disappearance and electron-neutrino appearance and the corresponding antineutrino processes between the two NOvA detectors in the NuMI neutrino beam. These measurements use a dataset with double the neutrino mode beam exposure that was previously analyzed, along with improved simulation and analysis techniques. A joint fit to these samples in the three-flavor paradigm results in the most precise single-experiment constraint on the atmospheric neutrino mass-splitting, $Δm^2_{32}= 2.431^{+0.036}_{-0.034} (-2.479^{+0.036}_{-0.036}) \times 10^{-3}$~eV$^2$ if the mass ordering is Normal (Inverted). In both orderings, a region close to maximal mixing with $\sin^2θ_{23}=0.55_{+0.06}^{-0.02}$ is preferred. The NOvA data show a mild preference for the Normal mass ordering with a Bayes factor of 2.4 (corresponding to 70% of the posterior probability), indicating that the Normal ordering is 2.4 times more probable than the Inverted ordering. When incorporating a 2D $Δm^2_{32}\textrm{--}\sin^2 2θ_{13}$ constraint based on Daya Bay data, this preference strengthens to a Bayes factor of 6.6 (87\%).

FOS: Physical sciences↗
DOE OSTI2017

New Equations of State for Postmerger Supramassive Quark Stars

Binary neutron star (NS) mergers with their subsequent fast-rotating supramassive magnetars are one attractive interpretation for at least some short gamma-ray bursts (SGRBs), based on the internal plateau commonly observed in the early X-ray afterglow. The rapid decay phase in this scenario signifies the epoch when the star collapses to a black hole after it spins down, and could effectively shed light on the underlying unclear equation of state (EoS) of dense matter. In the present work, we compare the protomagnetar masses of the internal plateau sample from representative EoS models to that derived independently from the observed galactic NS–NS binary, aiming to contribute new compact star EoSs from SGRB observations. For this purpose, we employ various EoSs covering a wide range of maximum masses for both NSs and quark stars (QSs) and, at the same time, satisfying the recent observational constraints of the two massive pulsars for which the masses are precisely measured (around 2 M{sub ⊙}). We first illustrate that how well the underlying EoS would reconcile with the current posterior mass distribution is largely determined by the static maximum mass of that EoS. We then construct three new postmerger QS EoSs (PMQS1, PMQS2, PMQS3), fully respecting the observed distribution. We also provide easy-to-use parameterizations for both the EoSs and the corresponding maximum gravitational masses of rotating stars. In addition, we calculate the fractions of postmerger products for each EoS, and discuss potential consequences for the magnetar-powered kilonova model.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Methodology for Generating Covariance Data of Thermal Neutron Scattering Cross Sections

This paper details and implements a framework for evaluating thermal neutron scattering cross sections that provide S(α,β) data and covariance data for hydrogen in light water. This methodology involves perturbing model parameters of molecular dynamics potentials and fitting the simulation results to experimental data. The framework is general and can be applied to any material or simulation method. The fit is made using the Unified Monte Carlo method to experimentally measure double-differential scattering cross sections of light water at the Spallation Neutron Source at Oak Ridge National Laboratory. Mean values and covariance data were generated for model parameters, phonon density of states, double-differential cross sections, and total scattering cross sections. These posterior parameter values were very similar to their prior values with a maximum relative error of 0.54%. This falls within in the Unified Monte Carlo–calculated uncertainties on the order of 2.7%. Additionally, posterior double-differential cross sections agree favorably with ENDF/B-VIII.0 cross sections. The new thermal scattering law was tested by comparing it against benchmarks from the International Criticality Safety Benchmark Evaluation Project Handbook, which showed a slight improvement over the ENDF/B-VIII.0 library. Additionally, the covariance matrix of the phonon density of states was validated to confirm that the spread of k eff from the density of states used to generate the covariance matrix was similar to the spread of k eff from the density of states of the sampled covariance matrix.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2024

Dark energy survey year 3 results: likelihood-free, simulation-based w CDM inference with neural compression of weak-lensing map statistics

We present simulation-based cosmological wcold dark matter (wCDM) inference using dark energy survey year 3 weak-lensing maps, via neural data compression of weak-lensing map summary statistics: power spectra, peak counts, and direct map-level compression/inference with convolutional neural networks (CNN). Using simulation-based inference, also known as likelihood-free or implicit inference, we use forward-modelled mock data to estimate posterior probability distributions of unknown parameters. This approach allows all statistical assumptions and uncertainties to be propagated through the forward-modelled mock data; these include sky masks, non-Gaussian shape noise, shape measurement bias, source galaxy clustering, photometric redshift uncertainty, intrinsic galaxy alignments, non-Gaussian density fields, neutrinos, and non-linear summary statistics. We include a series of tests to validate our inference results. This paper also describes the Gower Street simulation suite: 791 full-sky pkdgrav3 dark matter simulations, with cosmological model parameters sampled with a mixed active-learning strategy, from which we construct over 3000 mock dark energy survey lensing data sets. For wCDM inference, for which we allow –1 < w < –$\frac{1}{3}$⁠, our most constraining result uses power spectra combined with map-level (CNN) inference. Using gravitational lensing data only, this map-level combination gives Ω m = 0.283$^{+0.020}_{–0.027}$⁠, S 8 = 0.804$^{+0.025}_{–0.017⁠}$, and w < –0.80 (with a 68 per cent credible interval); compared to the power spectrum inference, this is more than a factor of two improvement in dark energy parameter (Ω⁠ DE , w⁠) precision.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗