Search NASA⌕ Search

SEARCH · Search NASA

Results for “Predictive science”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.

At least 343 records · Page 19

Real time monitoring of COVID-19 intervention effectiveness through contact tracing data

Communities worldwide have used vaccines and facemasks to mitigate the COVID-19 pandemic. When an individual opts to vaccinate or wear a mask, they may lower their own risk of becoming infected as well as the risk that they pose to others while infected. The first benefit–reducing susceptibility–has been established across multiple studies, while the second–reducing infectivity–is less well understood. Using a new statistical method, we estimate the efficacy of vaccines and facemasks at reducing both types of risks from contact tracing data collected in an urban setting. We find that vaccination reduced the risk of onward transmission by 40.7% [95% CI 25.8–53.2%] during the Delta wave and 31.0% [95% CI 19.4–40.9%] during the Omicron wave and that mask wearing reduced the risk of infection by 64.2% [95% CI 5.8–77.3%] during the Omicron wave. By harnessing commonly-collected contact tracing data, the approach can broadly provide timely and actionable estimates of intervention efficacy against a rapidly evolving pathogen.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗

Global tropical cyclone precipitation scaling with sea surface temperature

Understanding the relationship between tropical cyclone (TC) precipitation and sea surface temperature (SST) is essential for both TC hazard forecasting and projecting how these hazards will change in the future due to climate change. This work untangles how global TC precipitation is impacted by present-day SST variability (known as apparent scaling) and by long-term changes in SST caused by climate change (known as climate scaling). A variety of datasets are used including precipitation and SST observations, realistic climate model simulations, and idealized climate model simulations. The apparent scaling rates depend on precipitation metric; examples shown here have ranges of 6.1 to 9.5% per K versus 5.9 to 9.8% per K for two different metrics. The climate scaling is estimated at about 5% per K, which is slightly less than the atmospheric moisture scaling based on thermodynamic principles of about 7% per K (i.e., the Clausius–Clapeyron scaling). The apparent scaling is greater than the climate scaling, which implies that the relationship between TC precipitation and present-day SST variability should not be used to project the long-term response of TC precipitation to climate change.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

Dislocation theory of steady and transient creep of crystalline solids: Predictions for olivine

In applications critical to the geological, materials, and engineering sciences, deformation occurs at strain rates too small to be accessible experimentally. Instead, extrapolations of empirical relationships are used, leading to epistemic uncertainties in predictions. To address these problems, we construct a theory of the fundamental processes affecting dislocations: storage and recovery. We then validate our theory for olivine deformation. This model explains the empirical relationships among strain rate, applied stress, and dislocation density in disparate laboratory regimes. It predicts the previously unexplained dependence of dislocation density on applied stress in olivine. The predictions of our model for Earth conditions differ from extrapolated empirical relationships. For example, it predicts rapid, transient deformation in the upper mantle, consistent with recent measurements of postseismic creep.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Zika virus dynamics: Effects of inoculum dose, the innate immune response and viral interference

Experimental Zika virus infection in non-human primates results in acute viral load dynamics that can be well-described by mathematical models. The inoculum dose that would be received in a natural infection setting is likely lower than the experimental infections and how this difference affects the viral dynamics and immune response is unclear. Here we study a dataset of experimental infection of non-human primates with a range of doses of Zika virus. We develop new models of infection incorporating both an innate immune response and viral interference with that response. We find that such a model explains the data better than models with no interaction between virus and the immune response. We also find that larger inoculum doses lead to faster dynamics of infection, but approximately the same total amount of viral production.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Development of local hybrid density functionals to treat self-interaction error and many-electron effects

The goal of this project was to improve density functional theory (DFT) for systems where conventional semilocal approximations are limited by self-interaction error (SIE) and by near-degeneracy or strong many-electron effects. While DFT remains the only broadly practical first-principles framework for large-scale materials simulations, its predictive accuracy is often challenged in situations involving stretched bonds, charge transfer, transition-metal chemistry, magnetic couplings, band gaps, and correlated electronic states. This project addressed these limitations by developing physically grounded and numerically robust exchange–correlation functionals that retain the efficiency of modern DFT while extending its predictive scope.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Cytochrome Nanowire XRD

Microbial metabolism plays an important role in the global cycling of carbon, nutrients, and metals. Recent discovery of microorganisms sharing energy using direct electrical connections might represent a prominent strategy by which anaerobic microorganisms interact with the diversity of environments. The purpose of the proposed research is to apply these newly developed principles of electron exchange in microbial communities to the study of biogeochemical cycling in climate and subsurface systems. Previous studies revealed that soil bacteria Geobacter sulfurreducens produce conductive pili nanofilaments that facilitate long-range electron transport to extracellular electron acceptors and other cells. This discovery has already transformed our understanding of the function of microbial communities in diverse environments, making basic contributions to microbial ecology and helping to improve practical applications such as increasing current output of microbial fuel cells and enhancing the conversion of organic waste to methane. Microbial electron exchange via pili may also contribute to methane production in terrestrial environments that are major sources of atmospheric methane. However, the mechanism of electron transport through pili is not well understood. Initial studies have suggested that pili exhibit metallic-like conductivity similar to conducting polymer polyaniline. However, these studies were limited to electrical measurements. X-ray diffraction studies have suggested that aromatic amino acids tyrosine and phenylalanine are closely packed in pili. But these studies used homology modeling to predict the pilus assembly and information about the number of monomers in each pilus assembly unit and their organization are still lacking. The central hypothesis of this proposal is aromatics in pili enable intermolecular electron delocalization due to pi-stacking that can give rise to metallic-like conductivity. By analyzing pili structure using infrared scattering-scanning near field optical microscope (IR s-SNOM) and combining with solution NMR, Focused Ion Beam (FIB and computational capabilities, this work will provide comprehensive understanding of the conduction mechanism from a structure-function perspective. The specific aims are: 1) With infrared scattering scanning near field optical microscope (IR s-SNOM), image the organization and density of pilin monomers and pH-induced conformational changes in a pilus filament. 2) With solution NMR, resolve pH-induced structural changes in the pilin monomer. 3) Using Focused Ion Beam (FIB), draw electrodes on single pili to measure their conductivity. 4) With computational modeling using the NWChem, simulate the effect of environment on the electronic properties of pili as a function of pH. The proposed work will gain the nanoscale insight into the structure of the pili, as the basis for understanding interspecies electrical communications. The improved understanding will be harnessed to accelerate bioenergy production and bioremediation using pili as well as for predictive modeling of carbon cycling in diverse environments to reach the central goals of DOE-BER to develop sustainable energy sources, regulate the contaminants in the subsurface and understand the effects of greenhouse gas emissions on biosphere. The proposed studies will provide design principles for engineering of electrical interactions among these communities by manipulating the amino acid composition of pili. Moreover, these studies will identify the forces that maintain the function of these communities in the face of environmental perturbation. Therefore, these studies will help to address the need "to incorporate process understanding of biogeochemical cycling into a scalable hierarchy of predictive capabilities" specified in EMSL's Science Themes.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Integrative SP3 Workflow for Multi-PTM Proteomics Profiling (TZ-DP0)

The goal of the experiment was to demonstrate that the optimized multiplexed multi-PTM profiling workflow can comprehensively and quantitatively capture dynamic changes in protein abundance, cysteine oxidation, phosphorylation, and acetylation in cytokine-induced inflammatory stress in mouse pancreatic ß-cells. Global proteomic, redox proteomic, phosphoproteomic, and acetylomic were data collected from mouse Beta-TC-6 pancreatic Beta-cells, untreated (mock) and cytokine-treated Beta-cells at 4, 8, and 24 hours with 4 biological replicates. Samples were digested with trypsin and Lys-C, then analyzed by LC-MS/MS. Data were searched with MS-GF+, MASIC, and MaxQuant using PNNL's DMS processing pipeline.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

Atmospheric river representation in the Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) version 1.0

Abstract. The Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM) project is an ongoing, state-of-the-science Earth system modeling, simulation, and prediction project developed by the US Department of Energy (DOE). With an emphasis on supporting the DOE's energy mission, understanding and quantifying how well the model simulates water cycle processes is of particular importance. Here, we evaluate E3SM version 1.0 (v1.0) for its ability to represent atmospheric rivers (ARs), which play significant roles in water vapor transport and precipitation. The characteristics and precipitation associated with global ARs in E3SM at standard resolution (1∘ × 1∘) are compared to the Modern-Era Retrospective analysis for Research and Applications, version 2 (MERRA2). Global patterns of AR frequencies in E3SM show high degrees of correlation (≥0.97) with MERRA2 and low mean absolute errors (MAEs; <1 %) annually, seasonally, and across different ensemble members. However, some large-scale condition biases exist, leading to AR biases – most significant of which are the double intertropical convergence zone (ITCZ), a stronger and/or equatorward-shifted subtropical jet during boreal and austral winters, and enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer. By comparing atmosphere-only and fully coupled simulations, we attribute the sources of the biases to the atmospheric component or to a coupling response. Using relationships revealed in Dong et al. (2021), we provide evidence showing the stronger North Pacific jet in winter and the enhanced Northern Hemisphere westerlies during summer, associated with E3SM's double ITCZ and related weaker Atlantic meridional overturning circulation (AMOC), respectively, which are significant sources of the AR biases found in the coupled simulations.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

Earth study from space

The significance that space studies are making to all Earth sciences in the areas of geography, geodesy, cartography, geology, meteorology, oceanology, agronomy, and ecology is discussed. It is predicted that cosmonautics will result in a revolution in science and technology.

Sidorenko, A. V.↗

Advanced earth observation spacecraft computer-aided design software: Technical, user and programmer guide

The IDEAS computer of NASA is a tool for interactive preliminary design and analysis of LSS (Large Space System). Nine analysis modules were either modified or created. These modules include the capabilities of automatic model generation, model mass properties calculation, model area calculation, nonkinematic deployment modeling, rigid-body controls analysis, RF performance prediction, subsystem properties definition, and EOS science sensor selection. For each module, a section is provided that contains technical information, user instructions, and programmer documentation.

Farrell, C. E.↗

Comprehensive report of aeropropulsion, space propulsion, space power, and space science applications of the Lewis Research Center

The research activities of the Lewis Research Center for 1988 are summarized. The projects included are within basic and applied technical disciplines essential to aeropropulsion, space propulsion, space power, and space science/applications. These disciplines are materials science and technology, structural mechanics, life prediction, internal computational fluid mechanics, heat transfer, instruments and controls, and space electronics.

Source record↗

The 1991 International Aerospace and Ground Conference on Lightning and Static Electricity, volume 2

The proceedings of the conference are reported. The conference focussed on lightning protection, detection, and forecasting. The conference was divided into 26 sessions based on research in lightning, static electricity, modeling, and mapping. These sessions spanned the spectrum from basic science to engineering, concentrating on lightning prediction and detection and on safety for ground facilities, aircraft, and aerospace vehicles.

Source record↗

Atmospheric effects of stratospheric aircraft - A status report from NASA's High-Speed Research Program

Studies have indicated that, with sufficient technology development, future high-speed civil transport aircraft could be economically competitive with long-haul subsonic aircraft. However, uncertainty about atmospheric pollution, along with community noise and sonic boom, continues to be a major concern which is being addressed in the planned six-year High-Speed Research Program begun in 1990. Building on NASA's research in atmospheric science and emissions reduction, current analytical predictions indicate that an operating range may exist at altitudes below 20 km (i.e., corresponding to a cruise Mach number of approximately 2.4) where the goal level of 5 gm equivalent NO2 emissions/kg fuel will deplete less than one percent of column ozone. Because it will not be possible to directly measure the impact of an aircraft fleet on the atmosphere, the only means of assessment will be prediction. The process of establishing credibility for the predicted effects will likely be complex and involve continued model development and testing against climatological patterns. In particular, laboratory simulation of heterogeneous chemistry and other effects, and direct measurements of well understood tracers in the troposphere and stratosphere are being used to improve the current models.

Wesoky, Howard L.↗

Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations (PICASSO)

This paper will describe the planned 3-year Pathfinder Instruments for Cloud and Aerosol Spaceborne Observations (PICASSO) mission, its instrumentation and implementation. It will use LITE and other data, plus analyses, to show the feasibility of such a mission. PICASSO is being proposed for NASA's Earth System Science Pathfinder (ESSP) program with launch predicted in 2003.

McCormick, M. Patrick↗

Wear Mechanisms in Electron Sources for Ion Propulsion, 2: Discharge Hollow Cathode

The wear of the keeper electrode in discharge hollow cathodes is a major impediment to the implementation of ion propulsion onboard long-duration space science missions. The development of a predictive theoretical model for hollow cathode keeper life has long been sought, but its realization has been hindered by the complexities associated with the physics of the partially ionized gas and the associated erosion mechanisms in these devices. Thus, although several wear mechanisms have been hypothesized, a quantitative explanation of life test erosion profiles has remained incomplete. A two-dimensional model of the partially ionized gas in a discharge cathode has been developed and applied to understand the mechanisms that drove the erosion of the keeper in two long-duration life tests of a 30-cm ion thruster. An extensive set of comparisons between predictions by the numerical simulations and measurements of the plasma properties and of the erosion patterns is presented. It is found that the near-plume plasma oscillations, predicted by theory and observed by experiment, effectively enhance the resistivity of the plasma as well as the energy of ions striking the keeper.

hollow cathode↗

Surface Emissivity Retrieved with Satellite Ultraspectral IR Measurements for Monitoring Global Change

Surface and atmospheric thermodynamic parameters retrieved with advanced ultraspectral remote sensors aboard Earth observing satellites are critical to general atmospheric and Earth science research, climate monitoring, and weather prediction. Ultraspectral resolution infrared radiance obtained from nadir observations provide atmospheric, surface, and cloud information. Presented here is the global surface IR emissivity retrieved from Infrared Atmospheric Sounding Interferometer (IASI) measurements under "clear-sky" conditions. Fast radiative transfer models, applied to the cloud-free (or clouded) atmosphere, are used for atmospheric profile and surface parameter (or cloud parameter) retrieval. The inversion scheme, dealing with cloudy as well as cloud-free radiances observed with ultraspectral infrared sounders, has been developed to simultaneously retrieve atmospheric thermodynamic and surface (or cloud microphysical) parameters. Rapidly produced surface emissivity is initially evaluated through quality control checks on the retrievals of other impacted atmospheric and surface parameters. Surface emissivity and surface skin temperature from the current and future operational satellites can and will reveal critical information on the Earth s ecosystem and land surface type properties, which can be utilized as part of long-term monitoring for the Earth s environment and global climate change.

Zhou, Daniel K.↗

Predictive Analytics for ATD-2

This presentation describes on-going work to leverage high quality data and predictive analytics to improve understanding and performance of IADS system.

ATD-2↗