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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 343 records · Page 19
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2026

Investigating Coastal Vegetation Dynamics and Ecosystem Impacts Under Elevated CO 2 and Temperature: A Process‐Based Approach

Coastal forests are increasingly vulnerable to climate change and sea-level rise, with flooding and salinity driving transitions to marsh-dominated ecosystems. Using the coastal version of FATES-Hydro, we conducted 30-year simulations at two coastal forest sites—a broadleaf swamp white oak stand at Lake Erie and a conifer loblolly pine stand at Chesapeake Bay—under historical climate and elevated CO 2 (+100 ppm) and temperature (+1.5°C) scenarios. Elevated CO 2 increased net primary productivity at both sites, while warming alone intensified hydraulic stress and accelerated mortality, particularly in the conifer stand. Simulations show that elevated temperatures intensify vapor pressure deficit and hydraulic stress on trees already experiencing salinity- and submersion-driven water stress, increasing tree mortality beyond what would be expected in a non-water-limited environment. Marsh expansion partially compensated for tree loss at the Lake Erie site but reduced ecosystem productivity in the conifer forest at Chesapeake Bay. In conclusion, our results highlight how differences in stand structure, phenology, and local hydrology modulate ecosystem trajectories under climate change, emphasizing the importance of demographic and community-level processes for predicting the fate of coastal forests.

Ding, Junyan [Barcelona Supercomputing Center (BSC↗
DOE OSTI2020

Food–energy–water implications of negative emissions technologies in a +1.5 °C future

Scenarios for meeting ambitious climate targets rely on large-scale deployment of negative emissions technologies (NETs), including direct air capture (DAC). However, the tradeoffs between food, water and energy created by deploying different NETs are unclear. Here we show that DAC could provide up to 3 GtCO 2 yr -1 of negative emissions by 2035—equivalent to 7% of 2019 global CO 2 emissions—based on current-day assumptions regarding price and performance. DAC in particular could exacerbate demand for energy and water, yet it would avoid the most severe market-mediated effects of land-use competition from bioenergy with carbon capture and storage and afforestation. This could result in staple food crop prices rising by approximately fivefold relative to 2010 levels in many parts of the Global South, raising equity concerns about the deployment of NETs. Overall, these results highlight that delays in aggressive global mitigation action greatly increase the requirement for DAC to meet climate targets, and correspondingly, energy and water impacts.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Precipitation trends determine future occurrences of compound hot–dry events

Compound hot–dry events—co-occurring hot and dry extremes—frequently cause damages to human and natural systems, often exceeding separate impacts from heatwaves and droughts. Strong increases in the occurrence of these events are projected with warming, but associated uncertainties remain large and poorly understood. Here, using climate model large ensembles, we show that mean precipitation trends exclusively modulate the future occurrence of compound hot–dry events over land. This occurs because local warming will be large enough that future droughts will always coincide with at least moderately hot extremes, even in a 2°C warmer world. By contrast, precipitation trends are often weak and equivocal in sign, depending on the model, region and internal climate variability. Therefore, constraining regional precipitation trends will also constrain future compound hot–dry events. These results help to assess future frequencies of other compound extremes characterized by strongly different trends in the drivers.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2026

Emergent constraints on future methane emissions from global wetlands

Future methane (CH 4 ) emissions from natural wetlands are predicted to increase due to global warming, leading to positive feedback on climate change. However, the magnitude of this increase remains highly uncertain. Here we present novel ensemble simulations of seven state-of-the-art terrestrial biosphere models to estimate wetland CH 4 emissions (eCH 4 ) during the twenty-first century. Our estimates suggest that for every 1 °C increase in global land surface temperature, there is a 24 ± 10 Tg CH 4 yr −1 increase in eCH 4 . We also identify an emergent relationship between contemporary temperature dependence and projected eCH 4 . When constrained by 163 site-year eddy-covariance measurements of eCH 4 , we show that wetland emissions can increase by 50–60% by the 2090s relative to the 2010s under a high-warming scenario. The projected decadal increase in eCH 4 from the 2010–2019 baseline to the 2030s would very likely (90% probability) offset an amount equivalent in scale to 8–10% of anthropogenic eCH 4 at the 2020 level, comparable to the reductions committed under the Global Methane Pledge. However, the constraint is dominated by mid- and high-latitude observations, with limited tropical coverage, and uncertainties in projected wetland inundation contribute substantially to uncertainty in eCH 4 . Our findings reduce the uncertainty in projected wetland methane–climate feedback and highlight its potential impacts on methane mitigation efforts to slow global warming.

Zhang, Zhen [Chinese Academy of Sciences (CAS), Be↗
DOE OSTI2023

Divergent selection and climate adaptation fuel genomic differentiation between sister species of Sphagnum (peat moss)

Abstract Background and Aims New plant species can evolve through the reinforcement of reproductive isolation via local adaptation along habitat gradients. Peat mosses (Sphagnaceae) are an emerging model system for the study of evolutionary genomics and have well-documented niche differentiation among species. Recent molecular studies have demonstrated that the globally distributed species Sphagnum magellanicum is a complex of morphologically cryptic lineages that are phylogenetically and ecologically distinct. Here, we describe the architecture of genomic differentiation between two sister species in this complex known from eastern North America: the northern S. diabolicum and the largely southern S. magniae. Methods We sampled plant populations from across a latitudinal gradient in eastern North America and performed whole genome and restriction-site associated DNA sequencing. These sequencing data were then analyzed computationally. Key Results Using sliding-window population genetic analyses we find that differentiation is concentrated within ‘islands’ of the genome spanning up to 400 kb that are characterized by elevated genetic divergence, suppressed recombination, reduced nucleotide diversity and increased rates of non-synonymous substitution. Sequence variants that are significantly associated with genetic structure and bioclimatic variables occur within genes that have functional enrichment for biological processes including abiotic stress response, photoperiodism and hormone-mediated signalling. Demographic modelling demonstrates that these two species diverged no more than 225 000 generations ago with secondary contact occurring where their ranges overlap. Conclusions We suggest that this heterogeneity of genomic differentiation is a result of linked selection and reflects the role of local adaptation to contrasting climatic zones in driving speciation. This research provides insight into the process of speciation in a group of ecologically important plants and strengthens our predictive understanding of how plant populations will respond as Earth’s climate rapidly changes.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Reducing Model Uncertainty of Climate Change Impacts on High Latitude Carbon Assimilation

The Arctic Boreal Region (ABR) has a large impact on global vegetation-atmosphere interactions and is experiencing markedly greater warming than the rest of the planet, a trend that is projected to continue with anticipated future emissions of CO 2 . The ABR is a significant source of uncertainty in estimates of carbon uptake in terrestrial biosphere models (TBMs) such that reducing this uncertainty is critical for more accurately estimating global carbon cycling and understanding the response of the region to global change. Process representation and parameterization associated with gross primary productivity (GPP) drives a large amount of this model uncertainty, particularly within the next 50 years, where the response of existing vegetation to climate change will dominate estimates of GPP for the region. Furthermore, we review our current understanding and model representation of GPP in northern latitudes, focusing on vegetation composition, phenology and physiology, and consider how climate change alters these three components. We highlight challenges in the ABR for predicting GPP, but also focus on the unique opportunities for advancing knowledge and model representation, particularly through the combination of remote sensing and traditional boots-on-the-ground science.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Evaluation of Leading Modes of Climate Variability in the CMIP Archives

The adequate simulation of internal climate variability is key for our understanding of climate as it underpins efforts to attribute historical events, predict on seasonal and decadal time scales, and isolate the effects of climate change. Here the skill of models in reproducing observed modes of climate variability is assessed, both across and within the CMIP3, CMIP5, and CMIP6 archives, in order to document model capabilities, progress across ensembles, and persisting biases. A focus is given to the well-observed tropical and extratropical modes that exhibit small intrinsic variability relative to model structural uncertainty. These include El Niño–Southern Oscillation (ENSO), the Pacific decadal oscillation (PDO), the North Atlantic Oscillation (NAO), and the northern and southern annular modes (NAM and SAM). Significant improvements are identified in models’ representation of many modes. Canonical biases, which involve both amplitudes and patterns, are generally reduced across model generations. For example, biases in ENSO-related equatorial Pacific sea surface temperature, which extend too far westward, and associated atmospheric teleconnections, which are too weak, are reduced. Stronger tropical expression of the PDO in successive CMIP generations has characterized their improvement, with some CMIP6 models generating patterns that lie within the range of observed estimates. For the NAO, NAM, and SAM, pattern correlations with observations are generally higher than for other modes and slight improvements are identified across successive model generations. Finally, for ENSO and PDO spectra and extratropical modes, changes are small compared to internal variability, precluding definitive statements regarding improvement.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2020

Winter warming in Alaska accelerates lignin decomposition contributed by Proteobacteria

Background: In a warmer world, microbial decomposition of previously frozen organic carbon (C) is one of the most likely positive climate feedbacks of permafrost regions to the atmosphere. However, mechanistic understanding of microbial mediation on chemically recalcitrant C instability is limited; thus, it is crucial to identify and evaluate active decomposers of chemically recalcitrant C, which is essential for predicting C-cycle feedbacks and their relative strength of influence on climate change. Using stable isotope probing of the active layer of Arctic tundra soils after depleting soil labile C through a 975-day laboratory incubation, the identity of microbial decomposers of lignin and, their responses to warming were revealed. Results: The β - Proteobacteria genus Burkholderia accounted for 95.1% of total abundance of potential lignin decomposers. Consistently, Burkholderia isolated from our tundra soils could grow with lignin as the sole C source. A 2.2 °C increase of warming considerably increased total abundance and functional capacities of all potential lignin decomposers. In addition to Burkholderia , α - Proteobacteria capable of lignin decomposition (e.g. Bradyrhizobium and Methylobacterium genera) were stimulated by warming by 82-fold. Those community changes collectively doubled the priming effect, i.e., decomposition of existing C after fresh C input to soil. Consequently, warming aggravates soil C instability, as verified by microbially enabled climate-C modeling. Conclusions: Our findings are alarming, which demonstrate that accelerated C decomposition under warming conditions will make tundra soils a larger biospheric C source than anticipated.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

A Spatiotemporal-Aware Weighting Scheme for Improving Climate Model Ensemble Predictions

Multimodel ensembling has been widely used to improve climate model predictions, and the improvement strongly depends on the ensembling scheme. In this work, we propose a Bayesian neural network (BNN) ensembling method, which combines climate models within a Bayesian model averaging framework, to improve the predictive capability of model ensembles. Our proposed BNN approach calculates spatiotemporally varying model weights and biases by leveraging individual models' simulation skill, calibrates the ensemble prediction against observations by considering observation data uncertainty, and quantifies epistemic uncertainty when extrapolating to new conditions. More importantly, the BNN method provides interpretability about which climate model contributes more to the ensemble prediction at which locations and times. Thus, beyond its predictive capability, the method also brings insights and understanding of the models to guide further model and data development. In this study, we design experiments using an ensemble of CMIP6 climate model simulations to illustrate the BNN ensembling method's capability with respect to prediction accuracy, interpretability, and uncertainty quantification (UQ). We demonstrate that BNN can correctly assign larger weights to the regions and seasons where the individual model fits the observation better. Moreover, its offered interpretability is consistent with our understanding of localized climate model performance. Additionally, BNN shows an increasing uncertainty when the prediction is farther away from the period with constrained data, which appropriately reflects our trustworthiness of the models in the changing climate.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

BioRT-Flux-PIHM v1.0: a biogeochemical reactive transport model at the watershed scale

Watersheds are the fundamental Earth surface functioning units that connect the land to aquatic systems. Many watershed-scale models represent hydrological processes but not biogeochemical reactive transport processes. This has limited our capability to understand and predict solute export, water chemistry and quality, and Earth system response to changing climate and anthropogenic conditions. Here we present a recently developed BioRT-Flux-PIHM (BioRT hereafter) v1.0, a watershed-scale biogeochemical reactive transport model. The model augments the previously developed RT-Flux-PIHM that integrates land-surface interactions, surface hydrology, and abiotic geochemical reactions. It enables the simulation of (1) shallow and deep-water partitioning to represent surface runoff, shallow soil water, and deeper groundwater and of (2) biotic processes including plant uptake, soil respiration, and nutrient transformation. The reactive transport part of the code has been verified against the widely used reactive transport code CrunchTope. BioRT-Flux-PIHM v1.0 has recently been applied in multiple watersheds under diverse climate, vegetation, and geological conditions. This paper briefly introduces the governing equations and model structure with a focus on new aspects of the model. It also showcases one hydrology example that simulates shallow and deep-water interactions and two biogeochemical examples relevant to nitrate and dissolved organic carbon (DOC). These examples are illustrated in two simulation modes of complexity. One is the spatially lumped mode (i.e., two land cells connected by one river segment) that focuses on processes and average behavior of a watershed. Another is the spatially distributed mode (i.e., hundreds of cells) that includes details of topography, land cover, and soil properties. Whereas the spatially lumped mode represents averaged properties and processes and temporal variations, the spatially distributed mode can be used to understand the impacts of spatial structure and identify hot spots of biogeochemical reactions. The model can be used to mechanistically understand coupled hydrological and biogeochemical processes under gradients of climate, vegetation, geology, and land use conditions.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

AttentionFire_v1.0: interpretable machine learning fire model for burned-area predictions over tropics

Abstract. African and South American (ASA) wildfires account for more than 70 % of global burned areas and have strong connection to local climate for sub-seasonal to seasonal wildfire dynamics. However, representation of the wildfire–climate relationship remains challenging due to spatiotemporally heterogenous responses of wildfires to climate variability and human influences. Here, we developed an interpretable machine learning (ML) fire model (AttentionFire_v1.0) to resolve the complex controls of climate and human activities on burned areas and to better predict burned areas over ASA regions. Our ML fire model substantially improved predictability of burned areas for both spatial and temporal dynamics compared with five commonly used machine learning models. More importantly, the model revealed strong time-lagged control from climate wetness on the burned areas. The model also predicted that, under a high-emission future climate scenario, the recently observed declines in burned area will reverse in South America in the near future due to climate changes. Our study provides a reliable and interpretable fire model and highlights the importance of lagged wildfire–climate relationships in historical and future predictions.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Does Age, Residency, or Feeding Guild Coupled with a Drought Index Predict Avian Health during Fall Migration?

Birds are good indicators of environmental change and are often studied for responses to climate. Many studies focus on breeding birds, while fewer look at the migration period, which is a critical time for many birds. Birds are more susceptible to unusual climatic events during their migration due to the metabolic stress of long-distance movements. In the fall of 2020, an unusual cold weather event coupled with drought and wildfire smoke led to a large avian mortality event in New Mexico. Later analysis pointed to the mortality being largely due to starvation. This was the impetus for our research. We used 11 years of fall bird banding data from two locations, along with local drought indices, to determine what predicts avian health during the migration period. We used fat score data from over 15,000 individual birds to assess whether drought indices, age, diet, or residency influenced avian health using multiple logistic regression. We found that the probability of positive fat scores decreased as drought severity increased for younger, insectivorous, migratory birds. Insectivores had a higher probability of receiving a fat score greater than zero relative to local drought conditions, which is important, since many North American insectivores are in steep decline. Migratory birds showed a greater response than year-round residents, and older birds showed a lower but significant response compared to hatch-year birds. Our results suggest that migratory insectivores in the southwestern United States may be less resilient to drought-related climate change.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

The Ecosystem as Super-Organ/ism, Revisited: Scaling Hydraulics to Forests under Climate Change

Synopsis Classic debates in community ecology focused on the complexities of considering an ecosystem as a super-organ or organism. New consideration of such perspectives could clarify mechanisms underlying the dynamics of forest carbon dioxide (CO2) uptake and water vapor loss, important for predicting and managing the future of Earth’s ecosystems and climate system. Here, we provide a rubric for considering ecosystem traits as aggregated, systemic, or emergent, i.e., representing the ecosystem as an aggregate of its individuals or as a metaphorical or literal super-organ or organism. We review recent approaches to scaling-up plant water relations (hydraulics) concepts developed for organs and organisms to enable and interpret measurements at ecosystem-level. We focus on three community-scale versions of water relations traits that have potential to provide mechanistic insight into climate change responses of forest CO2 and H2O gas exchange and productivity: leaf water potential (Ψcanopy), pressure volume curves (eco-PV), and hydraulic conductance (Keco). These analyses can reveal additional ecosystem-scale parameters analogous to those typically quantified for leaves or plants (e.g., wilting point and hydraulic vulnerability) that may act as thresholds in forest responses to drought, including growth cessation, mortality, and flammability. We unite these concepts in a novel framework to predict Ψcanopy and its approaching of critical thresholds during drought, using measurements of Keco and eco-PV curves. We thus delineate how the extension of water relations concepts from organ- and organism-scales can reveal the hydraulic constraints on the interaction of vegetation and climate and provide new mechanistic understanding and prediction of forest water use and productivity.

Zoology↗
DOE OSTI2022

Marine phytoplankton resilience may moderate oligotrophic ecosystem responses and biogeochemical feedbacks to climate change

Are the oceans turning into deserts? Rising temperature, increasing surface stratification, and decreasing vertical inputs of nutrients are expected to cause an expansion of warm, nutrient deplete ecosystems. Such an expansion is predicted to negatively affect a trio of key ocean biogeochemical features: phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export. However, phytoplankton communities are complex adaptive systems with immense diversity that could render them at least partially resilient to global changes. This can be illustrated by the biology of the Prochlorococcus “collective.” Adaptations to counter stress, use of alternative nutrient sources, and frugal resource allocation can allow Prochlorococcus to buffer climate-driven changes in nutrient availability. In contrast, cell physiology is more sensitive to temperature changes. We argue that biogeochemical models need to consider the adaptive potential of diverse phytoplankton communities. However, a full understanding of phytoplankton resilience to future ocean changes is hampered by a lack of global biogeographic observations to test theories. We propose that the resilience may in fact be greater in oligotrophic waters than currently considered with implications for future predictions of phytoplankton biomass, primary productivity, and carbon export.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2023

Soil Respiration Responses to Throughfall Exclusion Are Decoupled From Changes in Soil Moisture for Four Tropical Forests, Suggesting Processes for Ecosystem Models

Abstract Climatic drying is predicted for many tropical forests yet models remain poorly parameterized for these ecosystems, hampering predictions of forest‐climate interactions. We applied an integrated model–experiment approach, parameterizing an ecosystem model with tropical forest observational data and comparing model predictions to a field drying manipulation. We hypothesized that drying suppresses soil CO 2 fluxes (i.e., respiration) in relatively dry tropical forests but increases CO 2 fluxes in wetter tropical forests by alleviating anaerobiosis. We measured soil CO 2 fluxes during wet‐dry cycles from 2015 to 2022 in four Panamanian forests that vary in rainfall and soil fertility. Measured soil CO 2 fluxes declined in the dry season and peaked in the early wet season ahead of peak soil moisture, resulting in lower soil moisture optima for respiration than previously modeled. We then parameterized the model using field data and the new moisture‐respiration response functions. The updated model predicted increased soil CO 2 fluxes with drying in wetter and fertile forests and suppressed fluxes in drier, infertile forests. In contrast to model predictions, a chronic throughfall exclusion experiment initially suppressed soil respiration across forests, with sustained suppression for four years in the wettest forest only (−28% ± 4% during the dry season). In the fertile forest, drying eventually elevated CO 2 fluxes over this period (+75% ± 28% during the late wet season). The unexpected negative drying effect in the wettest, infertile forest could have resulted from reduced vertical flushing of nutrients into soils. Including hydro‐nutrient interactions in ecosystem models could improve predictions of tropical forest‐climate feedbacks.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2024

Local-scale heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and controlling factors in a discontinuous permafrost region

In permafrost regions, the strong spatial and temporal variability in soil temperature cannot be explained by the weather forcing only. Understanding the local heterogeneity of soil thermal dynamics and their controls is essential to understand how permafrost systems respond to climate change and to develop process-based models or remote sensing products for predicting soil temperature. In this study, we analyzed soil temperature dynamics and their controls in a discontinuous permafrost region on the Seward Peninsula, Alaska. We acquired one-year temperature time series at multiple depths (at 5 or 10 cm intervals up to 85 cm depth) at 45 discrete locations across a 2.3 km 2 watershed. We observed a larger spatial variability in winter temperatures than that in summer temperatures at all depths, with the former controlling most of the spatial variability in mean annual temperatures. We also observed a strong correlation between mean annual ground temperature at a depth of 85 cm and mean annual or winter season ground surface temperature across the 45 locations. We demonstrate that soils classified as cold, intermediate, or warm using hierarchical clustering of full-year temperature data closely match their co-located vegetation (graminoid tundra, dwarf shrub tundra, and tall shrub tundra, respectively). We show that the spatial heterogeneity in soil temperature is primarily driven by spatial heterogeneity in snow cover, which induces variable winter insulation and soil thermal diffusivity. These effects further extend to the subsequent summer by causing variable latent heat exchanges. Finally, we discuss the challenges of predicting soil temperatures from snow depth and vegetation height alone by considering the complexity observed in the field data and reproduced in a model sensitivity analysis.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2025

High-Resolution Modeling of the Gulf of Mexico using E3SM

Coastal ocean modeling is a high priority in the DOE‘s Energy Exascale Earth System Model (E3SM). The goal is to accurately predict the risk of damage to coastal resources and infrastructure due to a changing climate in the coming decades. North American coastal communities are areas of particular interest, as this fits under the topic of US national security and planning assessments in a changing climate. LANL Institutional Computing time for the Tier 1 allocation ”Coastal Ocean and Sea Ice Modeling” have been used for development and testing of numerical methods needed for E3SM coastal applications.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2021

Multidisciplinary drifting Observatory for the Study of Arctic Climate (MOSAiC) (Field Campaign Report)

The Arctic is rapidly changing, and these changes have substantial societal relevance. First, arctic change is a leading sign of global change, as the warming observed in the Arctic is 2-3 times faster than observed across the rest of the globe. This so-called arctic amplification is due to numerous feedbacks, including those linked to the declining sea ice. Broad arctic changes are also hypothesized to be related to shifts in large-scale circulation patterns that may have implications for mid-latitude weather and ocean circulation. Arctic change is further affecting the oceans through acidification that threatens food supplies. Declining sea ice also opens the Arctic for new resource development, shipping routes, tourism, and other commercial activities. Lastly, the changing Arctic is a hotbed for geopolitical challenges as nations vie for influence and control of this resource-rich and newly accessible region. Clearly the Arctic and its changes are playing a huge role in our Earth both from a geophysical and socio-political standpoint. To navigate, manage, and respond to the challenges associated with arctic change requires a vastly improved understanding of the coupled arctic system, and the drivers and implications of these changes. It is essential to better understand the physical basis for why the arctic sea ice is declining, the associated feedbacks that work to amplify or modulate this decline, and the myriad ways that the Earth system is responding. As a result of these changes and uncertainties, there are increasing societal needs for improved model predictive skill in the Arctic, to address pressing gaps in global climate prediction, to advance forecast skills for regional and hemispheric weather and sea ice, and to ensure robust ecosystem models that realistically link physical and biological systems. To fulfill these core needs requires new, sophisticated, and cross-cutting observations within the rapidly changing arctic ice pack.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗