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DOE OSTI2019

Compound climate events transform electrical power shortfall risk in the Pacific Northwest

Power system operations are sensitive to climate-driven variations in both energy demands and water availability. Yet the combined effect of these impacts on power system adequacy is rarely evaluated. Here we assess power shortfall risk for the U.S. Pacific Northwest under combined climate impacts on loads and hydropower generation. Climate change emerges as both a risk and an opportunity; potential shortfall events occur more readily, but are significantly less severe in nature (annual shortfall probability is more than doubled for a business as usual policy; average shortfall event duration is halved and average maximum shortfall is reduced by up to ~60%). A seasonal reversal in shortfall risk occurs: winter shortfalls are eradicated due to reduced building heating demands, whilst summer shortfalls multiply as increased peak loads for day-time cooling coincide with impaired hydropower generation. Many of these summer shortfalls go unregistered when climate change impacts on loads and hydro dispatch are analyzed in isolation—suggesting an important role of compound events.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2024

Uncertainty characterization in a coupled human-natural system: Modeling agricultural adaptation in the Great Lakes Region

The Great Lakes Region's water quality and ecological health are threatened by the export of nutrients from agricultural lands, which causes eutrophication, hypoxia, and destructive algal blooms. The intensification of hydrologic cycles brought about by climate change is expected to exacerbate nutrient loading in the region, and, at the same time, agricultural adaptation to changing conditions is also expected to affect loading through shifting amounts and timing of fertilization. Quantifying these future effects and their interactions necessitates modeling both the human and natural processes as a coupled system, by pairing land use and agricultural management with hydrologic modeling. At the same time, compounding uncertainties arising from the complex interactions in both systems significantly limit our predictive understanding of the region's impacts. This study utilizes the Soil and Water Assessment Tool (SWAT), developed for simulating the impact of various farmer decisions on watershed functions in Western Lake Erie watersheds, and an under-development agent-based model (ABM) for agricultural management decisions. The aim of this study is to use global sensitivity analysis on the coupled ABM and SWAT models to quantify how uncertainty in both models interactively affects nutrient loading. To do so, we will conduct Sobol sensitivity analysis experiments at different levels of coupling assumptions to quantify how various uncertain factors (e.g., soil moisture and crop choice) and their interactions affect our estimates of nutrient loading. The results of this analysis will allow us to quantify how complex interactions and dependencies between both systems amplify the effect of uncertainties. Insights gained from this study will have broader implications for modeling the adaptive co-evolution of human and natural systems under climate change and can inform effective management of nutrient loading in the Great Lakes Region.

Climate Change↗

DOE OSTI2021

Tri-Level Scheduling Model Considering Residential Demand Flexibility of Aggregated HVACs and EVs Under Distribution LMP

Residential loads, especially heating, ventilation and air conditioners (HVACs) and electric vehicles (EVs), have great potentials to provide demand flexibility which is an attribute of grid-interactive efficient buildings (GEB). Under this new paradigm, first, EV and HVAC aggregator models are developed in this paper to represent the fleet of GEBs, in which the aggregated parameters are obtained based on a new approach of data generation and least squares parameter estimation (DG-LSPE), which can deal with heterogeneous HVACs. Then, a tri-level bidding and dispatching framework is established based on competitive distribution operation with distribution locational marginal price (DLMP). Furthermore, the first two levels form a bilevel model to optimize the aggregators’ payment and to represent the interdependency between load aggregators and the distribution system operator (DSO) using DLMP, and the third level is to dispatch the optimal load aggregation to all residents by the proposed priority list-based demand dispatching algorithm. Finally, case studies on a modified IEEE 33-Bus system illustrate three main technical reasons of payment reduction due to demand flexibility: load shift, DLMP step changes, and power losses. They can be used as general guidelines for better decision-making for future planning and operation of demand response programs.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗

DOE OSTI2022

The molecular mechanism of load adaptation by branched actin networks

Branched actin networks are self-assembling molecular motors that move biological membranes and drive many important cellular processes, including phagocytosis, endocytosis, and pseudopod protrusion. When confronted with opposing forces, the growth rate of these networks slows and their density increases, but the stoichiometry of key components does not change. The molecular mechanisms governing this force response are not well understood, so we used single-molecule imaging and AFM cantilever deflection to measure how applied forces affect each step in branched actin network assembly. Although load forces are observed to increase the density of growing filaments, we find that they actually decrease the rate of filament nucleation due to inhibitory interactions between actin filament ends and nucleation promoting factors. The force-induced increase in network density turns out to result from an exponential drop in the rate constant that governs filament capping. The force dependence of filament capping matches that of filament elongation and can be explained by expanding Brownian Ratchet theory to cover both processes. We tested a key prediction of this expanded theory by measuring the force-dependent activity of engineered capping protein variants and found that increasing the size of the capping protein increases its sensitivity to applied forces. In summary, we find that Brownian Ratchets underlie not only the ability of growing actin filaments to generate force but also the ability of branched actin networks to adapt their architecture to changing loads.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2018

Long term load forecasting accuracy in electric utility integrated resource planning

Forecasts of electricity consumption and peak demand over time horizons of one or two decades are a key element in electric utilities’ meeting their core objective and obligation to ensure reliable and affordable electricity supplies for their customers while complying with a range of energy and environmental regulations and policies. These forecasts are an important input to integrated resource planning (IRP) processes involving utilities, regulators, and other stake-holders. Despite their importance, however, there has been little analysis of long term utility load forecasting accuracy. We conduct a retrospective analysis of long term load forecasts on twelve Western U. S. electric utilities in the mid-2000s to find that most overestimated both energy consumption and peak demand growth. A key reason for this was the use of assumptions that led to an overestimation of economic growth. We find that the complexity of forecast methods and the accuracy of these forecasts are mildly correlated. In addition, sensitivity and risk analysis of load growth and its implications for capacity expansion were not well integrated with subsequent implementation. As a result, we review changes in the utilities load forecasting methods over the subsequent decade, and discuss the policy implications of long term load forecast inaccuracy and its underlying causes.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2023

A Six-Phase Space Vector PWM Technique for Wide Bandgap Device-Based Three-Level Inverters

This article presents a space vector pulsewidth modulation (SVPWM) technique for wide bandgap (WBG) device-based three-level (3L) six-phase inverters. Implementation of the SVPWM techniques for any six-phase inverter is complex for its high number of possible voltage vectors. Different six-phase load configurations are also possible depending on the angle between two consecutive phases and neutral point connections. The implementation techniques change depending on the load configuration. Moreover, a common neutral point for all six phases leads to circulating currents. Capacitor voltage balancing is also needed for 3L inverters. Capacitor voltage balancing and addressing the circulating current problem further increases the implementation complexity. In this article, a generalized SVPWM technique is proposed for the six-phase 3L inverters that is implementable using two three-phase 3L SVPWM blocks. The SVPWM technique also ensures dc bus capacitor voltage balancing and minimizes circulating current. Here, the SVPWM technique is experimentally verified using a GaN-based 3L six-phase active neutral point clamped (ANPC) inverter prototype, and the results are presented in this article.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2012

Validation Methodology to Allow Simulated Peak Reduction and Energy Performance Analysis of Residential Building Envelope with Phase Change Materials: Preprint

Phase change materials (PCM) represent a potential technology to reduce peak loads and HVAC energy consumption in residential buildings. This paper summarizes NREL efforts to obtain accurate energy simulations when PCMs are modeled in residential buildings: the overall methodology to verify and validate Conduction Finite Difference (CondFD) and PCM algorithms in EnergyPlus is presented in thisstudy. It also shows preliminary results of three residential building enclosure technologies containing PCM: PCM-enhanced insulation, PCM impregnated drywall and thin PCM layers. The results are compared based on predicted peak reduction and energy savings using two algorithms in EnergyPlus: the PCM and Conduction Finite Difference (CondFD) algorithms.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

DOE OSTI2021

Aeroacoustic Assessment of Wind Plant Controls

The Aeroacoustic Assessment project aims to quantify changes in aeroacoustic noise generation by a utility scale wind turbine operating under imposed yaw offsets common for wake steering and wind plant control strategies. Active plant control utilizing wake deflection control strategies have been shown experimentally and computationally to reliably produce 1-2% of additional annual energy production (AEP) without significant changes in turbine structural loads, the potential impact on aeroacoustic emissions has yet to be quantified or completely understood. Yawed operation of a wind turbine changes the three-dimensional aerodynamic interaction between the rotor blades and the incoming atmospheric flow, leading to changes in noise generation. This work quantifies the extent to which active control induces additional aeroacoustic emissions from additional separation and other flow interaction dynamic effects. Given public concerns about wind turbine noise and the need for observational data required for regulators to establish noise restrictions, we must understand potential acoustic emissions resulting from active control prior to commercial deployment and the development of practical noise reduction methods and technologies. The work outlined in this report details the new aeroacoustic measurement capability developed at NREL and its application to making full-field observations of noise from a utility-scale wind turbine. Preliminary noise modeling with the aeroacoustics module in OpenFAST helped to establish the design of the experiment, specifically targeting the noise observed at observers distributed around the DOE-owned GE 1.5 MW wind turbine. Low-frequency and infrasound measurement capability implemented in this project establish an operational baseline for the wind turbine, setting the stage for future control, rotor blade, and turbine design research.

17 WIND ENERGY↗

DOE OSTI2017

Power control system modification and simulation of CPR1000 - 181

Due to development of electric power system, the proportion of nuclear power and its needs for load follow operation have become large. Then there would be higher requirements to the power control ability of the nuclear power system. The axial power distribution may change a lot in the operation process and be affected by many factors. In particular, as the power change is performed within a load follow maneuver, several modifications occur in the core from a neutronic view point: the fuel and moderator temperature change, the xenon concentration and distribution are modified, the power distribution skewed axially, etc. These changes need to be adequately counterbalanced to keep both the core critical and the power distribution acceptable. The traditional approach in pressurized water reactors (PWRs) is compensating for the reactivity change due to the power variation by adjusting the soluble boron concentration and moving a limited number of control banks. However, dilution/boronation strategy becomes expensive for short time changes and leads to large volume of liquid effluent, so it is eager about a capability to perform load follow operation without changing soluble boron concentration. CPR1000, one of the main reactor types in China national development, is taken an example in this paper. It adopts a control method called Mode G, using G banks, N banks, R bank and soluble boron to perform the load follow control. According to the analysis of the physics and thermal principle, a two-node dynamic function model was built, putting the coupling coefficient and mutual influence into consideration. By the calculation of these transient parameter values which are acquired by the steady-state calculation of single channel, the core system model of CPR1000 is established. In order to carry out the load follow operation without the boron adjustment, named as BTP mode, the control banks were regrouped to control the average temperature by M banks and axial offset by AO bank. After that, the average temperature control system (M banks control system) and the axial offset control system (AO bank control system) are built. When the optimal control system is connected to the core model simulation platform, the BTP mode load follow operation of the modified CPR1000 is simulated in the end of the paper. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗

DOE OSTI2014

Identification of topology changes in power grids using phasor measurements

Phasor measurement units (PMUs) are increasingly important for monitoring the state of an electrical power grid and quickly detecting topology changes caused by events such as lines going down or large loads being dropped. Phasors are complex‐valued measurements of voltage and current at various points of generation and consumption. If a line goes down or a load is removed, power flows change throughout the grid according to known physical laws, and the probability distribution of phasor measurements changes accordingly. This paper develops a method to estimate the current topology of a power grid from phasor measurements and considers the design goal of placing PMUs at strategic points in a distribution system to achieve good sensitivity to single‐line outages. From a vector of phasor measurements, probabilities are computed corresponding to the scenario that all power lines are operational and to alternate scenarios in which each line goes down individually. These probabilities are functions of the joint distributions of phasor measurements under each possible scenario, obtained through Monte Carlo simulations with random load profiles. We use log‐spline densities to estimate marginal distributions of phasor measurements and fold these into a multivariate Gaussian copula to capture important correlations. Sensitivity to outages varies according to which line goes down and where PMUs are placed on the grid. A greedy search algorithm is demonstrated for placing PMUs at locations that provide good sensitivity to single‐line outages. Published 2014. This article is a U.S. Government work and is in the public domain in the USA.

Wiel, Scott Vander↗

DOE OSTI2023

Modular Iron–Bipyridine-Based Conjugated Aerogels as Catalysts for Oxygen Reduction Reaction

Aerogels have a large surface area and a porous structure, which make them an attractive catalyst support materials for fuel cells. Modifying the aerogels’ building blocks and introducing catalytic sites into their backbones allow them to function as both catalysts and supports, thereby increasing the density and distribution of catalyst active sites. In this work, we studied conjugated aerogels containing iron–bipyridine catalytic sites for the oxygen reduction reaction. To demonstrate the variation in physical and electrochemical properties of these aerogels, a series of aerogels were synthesized by a Glaser coupling reaction. Iron salt was added to the three-dimensional gel to produce iron–bipyridine complexes and obtain atomically dispersed catalytic sites. The electrocatalytic activity and electrical conductivity of the aerogels were increased after their heat treatment to yield Fe-doped carbon aerogels. The control of metal loadings was accomplished by changing the bipyridine content during the aerogel synthesis, resulting in 0.9–4.1 wt % Fe. In conclusion, the results show a correlation between Fe loading, aerogel structure, and catalytic activity, achieving high performance for the oxygen reduction reaction in both acidic and alkaline media.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

DOE OSTI2016

Estimation of Inherent Safety Margins in Loaded Commercial Spent Nuclear Fuel Casks

We completed a novel assessment to determine the unquantified and uncredited safety margins (i.e., the difference between the licensing basis and as-loaded calculations) available in as-loaded spent nuclear fuel (SNF) casks. This assessment was performed as part of a broader effort to assess issues and uncertainties related to the continued safety of casks during extended storage and transportability following extended storage periods. Detailed analyses crediting the actual as-loaded cask inventory were performed for each of the casks at three decommissioned pressurized water reactor (PWR) sites to determine their characteristics relative to regulatory safety criteria for criticality, thermal, and shielding performance. These detailed analyses were performed in an automated fashion by employing a comprehensive and integrated data and analysis tool—Used Nuclear Fuel-Storage, Transportation & Disposal Analysis Resource and Data System (UNF-ST&DARDS). Calculated uncredited criticality margins from 0.07 to almost 0.30 Δk eff were observed; calculated decay heat margins ranged from 4 to almost 22 kW (as of 2014); and significant uncredited transportation dose rate margins were also observed. The results demonstrate that, at least for the casks analyzed here, significant uncredited safety margins are available that could potentially be used to compensate for SNF assembly and canister structural performance related uncertainties associated with long-term storage and subsequent transportation. The results also suggest that these inherent margins associated with how casks are loaded could support future changes in cask licensing to directly or indirectly credit the margins. Work continues to quantify the uncredited safety margins in the SNF casks loaded at other nuclear reactor sites.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗

DOE OSTI2012

HCCI Load Expansion Opportunities Using a Fully Variable HVA Research Engine to Guide Developments of a Production Intent Cam-Based VVA Engine: The Low Load Limit

While the potential emissions and efficiency benefits of HCCI combustion are well known, realizing the potentials on a production intent engine presents numerous challenges. In this study we focus on identifying challenges and opportunities associated with a production intent cam-based variable valve actuation (VVA) system on a multi-cylinder engine in comparison to a fully flexible, naturally aspirated, hydraulic valve actuation (HVA) system on a single-cylinder engine, with both platforms sharing the same GDI fueling system and engine geometry. The multi-cylinder production intent VVA system uses a 2-step cam technology with wide authority cam phasing, allowing adjustments to be made to the negative valve overlap (NVO) duration but not the valve opening durations. On the single cylinder HVA engine, the valve opening duration and lift are variable in addition to the NVO duration. The content of this paper is limited to the low-medium operating load region at 2000rpm. Using different injection strategies, including the NVO pilot injection approach, the single-cylinder engine is operated over a load range from 160-390 kPa net IMEP at 2000 rpm. Changes to valve opening duration on the single-cylinder HVA engine illustrate opportunities for load expansion and efficiency improvement at certain conditions. For instance, the low load limit can be extended on the HVA engine by reducing breathing and operating closer to a stoichiometric air fuel ratio (AFR) by using valve deactivation. The naturally aspirated engine used here without external EGR confirmed that as operating load increases the emissions of NOx increases due to combustion temperature. NOx emissions are found to be one limitation to the maximum load limitation, the other being high pressure rise rate. It is found that the configuration of the production intent cam-based system represents a good compromise between valve lift and duration in the low to medium load region. Changing the extent of charge motion and breathing via valve deactivation prove beneficial at moderating the pressure rise rate and combustion stability and extending the low load limit at 2000rpm on the HVA engine. It also confirms that strategies using a pilot fuel injection are beneficial at low operating loads but that as operating load is increased, the benefits of multiple injection diminish to the point where a single injection offers the best performance.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2012

HCCI Load Expansion Opportunities using a Fully Variable HVA Research Engine to Guide Development of a Production Intent Cam-based VVA Engine: The Low Load Limit

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

DOE OSTI2022

Load Shed Recovery With Transmission Switching and Intentional Islanding Methods After (N-2) Line Contingencies

Changing power system configuration may result in load shed recovery (LSR) because topology change can provide power flow control in meshed network. Some topologies may favor generation redispatch as compared to others and can eliminate line congestion which leads to LSR. One of the known methods for topology change is called transmission switching (TS) and research conducted in the past showed that TS is an effective means of mitigating load shedding. Another method of topology control is intentional islanding (IIS). In this manuscript, we explore IIS as a potential solution for LSR. IIS based on generator coherency has been presented in literature for mitigating cascading failures. However, IIS has not been explored solely as a LSR mechanism. In this paper, we compare the LSR based on IIS with well known LSR algorithm based on TS. The comparison is performed for IEEE 39-bus system and IEEE 118- bus system. The results show that IIS has a potential to perform better than TS in terms of computational efficiency and LSR.

42 ENGINEERING↗

DOE OSTI2024

Effect of radiation defects on grain boundary evolution under shock loading

Not Available

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2024

Infinitely rugged intra-cage potential energy landscape in metallic glasses caused by many-body interaction

The absence of translational symmetry in glassy materials poses a significant challenge in establishing effective structure-property relationships in real space. Consequently, the potential energy landscape (PEL) in phase space is widely utilized to comprehend the complex phenomena in glasses. The classical PEL features a two-scale profile comprising mega-basins and sub-basins, corresponding to α-relaxations (e.g. glass transition) and β-relaxations (e.g. local cage-breaking atomic rearrangements), respectively. Recent studies, however, reveal that sub-basins are not smooth and contain finer structures, the origins of which remain elusive. Here we probe the smoothness of sub-basin bottoms in glasses' PEL by introducing small intra-cage cyclic loading and then measuring the net changes in atomic-level stresses. Compared to glasses with pair interaction, glasses with many-body interaction exhibit orders-of-magnitude larger and loading-dependent stress changes even before the first cage-breaking event takes place, which reflect much more feature-rich sub-basins. We further demonstrate this stark contrast stems from the spatial distribution of individual atom's constraining force field. Specifically, at vanishing perturbations, many-body interactions disrupt the positive-definite synchrony in energy variations of the perturbed atom and the whole system, causing inherently less confined atomic responses and infinitely rugged sub-basins. The implications of these findings for the selective addition or removal of fine structures in the PEL and the subsequent tuning of glassy materials' responses to external stimuli are also explored.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

DOE OSTI2015

Study of node and mass sensitivity of resonant mode based cantilevers with concentrated mass loading

Resonant-mode based cantilevers are an important type of acoustic wave based mass-sensing devices. In this work, the governing vibration equation of a bi-layer resonant-mode based cantilever attached with concentrated mass is established by using a modal analysis method. The effects of resonance modes and mass loading conditions on nodes and mass sensitivity of the cantilever were theoretically studied. The results suggested that the node did not shift when concentrated mass was loaded on a specific position. Mass sensitivity of the cantilever was linearly proportional to the square of the point displacement at the mass loading position for all the resonance modes. For the first resonance mode, when mass loading position x{sub c} satisfied 0 < x{sub c} < ∼ 0.3l (l is the cantilever beam length and 0 represents the rigid end), mass sensitivity decreased as the mass increasing while the opposite trend was obtained when mass loading satisfied ∼0.3l ≤ x{sub c} ≤ l. Mass sensitivity did not change when concentrated mass was loaded at the rigid end. This work can provide scientific guidance to optimize the mass sensitivity of a resonant-mode based cantilever.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗