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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Increasing extreme hourly precipitation risk for New York City after Hurricane Ida

The remnants of Hurricane Ida caused major damage and death in the United States on September 1st, 2021, and 11 people drowned in flooded basement apartments within New York City (NYC). It was catastrophic because the maximum hourly precipitation intensity, recorded as 3.47 inches (88.1 mm) per hour at Central Park, was unprecedentedly high for the NYC region. The stormwater infrastructure in NYC is built for 1.75 inches (44.5 mm) per hour, and so understanding the dynamic risk associated with Ida can inform city planning efforts for climate change’s impact on short duration extreme precipitation events. We contextualize this storm’s record-breaking hourly intensity within the historical record as well as project its risk in the near- to medium-term future using nonstationary stochastic models. These models are conditioned on average temperature (T avg ) and cooling degree day (CDD) projections from three climate models as a covariate, each with a SSP 126 and SSP 370 scenario. The likelihood of such a storm was slowly increasing even before Ida happened, but the projected aggregate reoccurrence risk of an event of Ida’s magnitude over time from the non-stationary models ranges from 4 to 52 times higher than the risk given by the stationary model. Using CDD as a covariate resulted in risks that were more than twice the magnitude than when using T avg . Presenting both covariates provides a broader envelope of uncertainty, which highlights the importance and nuances in the choice of a regionally appropriate covariate for non-stationary risk analysis.

Mossel, Carolien↗
DOE OSTI2025

Accounting for Sustainability and Performance: Contrasting Effects of PET-Derived Modifiers on Asphalt Durability

The valorization of waste plastics in roadway infrastructure requires careful balance between sustainability and performance, as ineffective modifiers may incur both environmental and financial costs. This study shows that two modifiers derived from the same waste plastic source (PET)-DOTP (N1,N4-(dioctyl)terephthalamide) and HETP (N1,N4-Bis(2-hydroxyethyl)terephthalamide)-exhibit opposite effects on asphalt properties, despite having nearly the same carbon footprint. DOTP improves elastic recovery in multiple creep recovery tests (MCRT), while HETP increases strain accumulation and reduces elasticity. Density functional theory (DFT) shows that DOTP's molecular structure can disperse well in bitumen mixtures by binding to both polar and non-polar components. In contrast, HETP binds only to the binder's polar sites, lacking adequate dispersion. This increases the risk of aggregation of polar compounds in the bitumen mixture, resulting in a more deformation-prone binder. A techno-economic analysis highlights trade-offs between sustainability and performance in industrial-scale synthesis. This study advocates for applying first-principles thinking in material design, coupled with experimental validation, to engineer plastic waste-derived additives that achieve both performance and sustainability goals.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2022

Building Load Control Using Distributionally Robust Chance-Constrained Programs with Right-Hand Side Uncertainty and the Risk-Adjustable Variants

Aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads can provide reserves to absorb volatile renewable energy, especially solar photo-voltaic (PV) generation. In this paper, we decide HVAC control schedules under uncertain PV generation, using a distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) building load control model under two typical ambiguity sets: the moment-based and Wasserstein ambiguity sets. We derive mixed integer linear programming (MILP) reformulations for DRCC problems under both sets. Especially, for the Wasserstein ambiguity set, we use the right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty to derive a more compact MILP reformulation than the commonly known MILP reformulations with big-M constants. All the results also apply to general individual chance constraints with RHS uncertainty. Furthermore, we propose an adjustable chance-constrained variant to achieve tradeoff between the operational risk and costs. We derive MILP reformulations under the Wasserstein ambiguity set and second-order conic programming (SOCP) reformulations under the moment-based set. Using real-world data, we conduct computational studies to demonstrate the efficiency of the solution approaches and the effectiveness of the solutions. Summary of Contribution: The problem studied in this paper is motivated by a building load control problem that uses the aggregation of heating, ventilation, and air conditioning (HVAC) loads as flexible reserves to absorb uncertain solar photovoltaic (PV) generation. The problem is formulated as distributionally robust chance-constrained (DRCC) programs with right-hand side (RHS) uncertainty. In addition, we propose a risk-adjustable variant of the DRCC programs, where the risk level, instead of being predetermined, is treated as a decision variable. The paper aims to provide tractable reformulations and solution algorithms for both the (general) DRCC and the (general) adjustable DRCC models with RHS uncertainty.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2018

Aggregate Exposure Pathways in Support of Risk Assessment

Over time, risk assessment has shifted from establishing relationships between exposure to a single chemical and a resulting adverse health outcome, to evaluation of multiple chemicals and disease outcomes simultaneously. As a result, there is an increasing need to better understand the complex mechanisms that influence risk of chemical and non-chemical stressors, beginning at their source and ending at a biological endpoint relevant to human or ecosystem health risk assessment. Just as the Adverse Outcome Pathway (AOP) framework has emerged as a means of providing insight into mechanism-based toxicity, the exposure science community has seen the recent introduction of the Aggregate Exposure Pathway (AEP) framework. AEPs aid in making exposure data applicable to the FAIR (i.e., findable, accessible, interoperable, and reusable) principle, especially by (1) organizing continuous flow of disjointed exposure information;(2) identifying data gaps, to focus resources on acquiring the most relevant data; (3) optimizing use and repurposing of existing exposure data; and (4) facilitating interoperability among predictive models. Herein, we discuss integration of the AOP and AEP frameworks and how such integration can improve confidence in both traditional and cumulative risk assessment approaches.

63 RADIATION, THERMAL, AND OTHER ENVIRON. POLLUTAN↗
DOE OSTI2019

Risk Assessment at the Edge: Applying NERC CIP to Aggregated Grid-Edge Resources

Distributed energy resources (DERs) promise to deliver benefits for both utilities and consumers by dynamically interoperating utility systems with customer-owned grid-edge technologies. These small energy-consuming devices are increasingly being aggregated for participation in grid markets, planning and operations. A cyber attack penetrating the control system of aggregated DERs could negatively impact the operation of the grid. In the worst case, the power grid could be severely damaged and physical safety compromised. In this paper we analyze cybersecurity risks associated with the aggregation of DERs and develop an approach to mitigating that risk. The approaches to both cyber risk analysis and mitigation were developed during a recent research project that serves as an example of how the approaches could be applied. However, both the risk analysis and mitigation are applicable to the broader domain of all DERs. An important conclusion is that the successful cyber compromise of aggregated DERs could have a significant impact on the bulk power system. This is the case even if each individual DER falls below the threshold of compliance with bulk-grid cybersecurity standards. For this reason, we specifically investigate how National Electricity Reliability Corporation's Critical Infrastructure Protection requirements could flow down to interactions between DER aggregators and the DERs themselves in order to protect the grid from these bulk-scale cyber attack impacts.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Delivery-Risk-Aware Flexibility Scheduling and Dispatch for Aggregated Flexible Loads

Flexible loads like smart thermostats and water heaters can shift energy consumption and provide flexibility to the grid. However, this flexibility is dependent on occupant behavior and can lead to delivery risk, which causes utilities and grid operations to consider them as unreliable for purposes of grid operation. To date, they have not been well integrated into wholesale electricity markets or ancillary service offerings. With proper consideration of uncertainty and risk, these resources can be one of the most cost-effective sources of flexibility. This work uses stochastic optimization to quantify and bid flexibility from a fleet of flexible resources while considering their delivery risk.

DER↗
NASA NTRS2017

Assessing Inter-Sectoral Climate Change Risks: The Role of ISIMIP

The aims of the Inter-Sectoral Impact Model Intercomparison Project (ISIMIP) are to provide a framework for the intercomparison of global and regional-scale risk models within and across multiple sectors and to enable coordinated multi-sectoral assessments of different risks and their aggregated effects. The overarching goal is to use the knowledge gained to support adaptation and mitigation decisions that require regional or global perspectives within the context of facilitating transformations to enable sustainable development, despite inevitable climate shifts and disruptions. ISIMIP uses community-agreed sets of scenarios with standardized climate variables and socioeconomic projections as inputs for projecting future risks and associated uncertainties, within and across sectors. The results are consistent multi-model assessments of sectoral risks and opportunities that enable studies that integrate across sectors, providing support for implementation of the Paris Agreement under the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change.

Regional-scale risk models↗
DOE OSTI2023

Project: Corbomite - Product: ConsoleWorks REACT

TDi Technologies presents ConsoleWorks REACT, an advanced platform designed to tackle the complexities of cyber and operational risk assessment. This comprehensive solution goes beyond asset-focused approaches by considering the impact of both assets and people have on the security and operation of critical infrastructure, specifically targeting preventing gird mis-operation by evaluating real-time human interaction or commands with critical assets. The hypothesis suggests that by integrating the assessment of user commands into the overall risk assessment process, organizations can make more informed decisions, prioritize resources effectively, and respond promptly to potential threats. This hypothesis forms the basis for the development of a proactive and holistic risk management approach that is more comprehensive and context aware than traditional models which only look at assets, patch levels, configuration and threat intel by collecting that information off the network vs directly from the asset, human, and human interaction all in real-time. ConsoleWorks' unique man-in-the-middle architecture is a key feature that sets it apart in the cybersecurity landscape. This architecture enables the real-time observation, enforcement, and commands or interaction risk transparency of user interaction with critical infrastructure to be risk mitigated and audited as they are aggregated with device and human risk factors for a more comprehensive risk threat score across a device or group of devices. This architecture allows ConsoleWorks to act as a secure intermediary between users and critical assets, monitoring all interactions and ensuring that only authorized commands are sent to the asset to be executed. This not only enhances security but also provides a comprehensive audit trail of all user activities, contributing to compliance efforts and facilitating incident investigation and risk management. By integrating this unique architecture with our comprehensive risk assessment methodology, ConsoleWorks REACT provides a powerful solution for managing cyber and operational risks, enabling organizations to maintain a robust security posture and effectively mitigate potential threats. To that end, the primary objective of this project was to research and develop a robust solution that enables the energy industry to mitigate the risks associated with human actions that can compromise the security or operations of assets critical to energy delivery, generation, transmission and operation. ConsoleWorks REACT plays a pivotal role in achieving this goal by leveraging its unique capabilities to monitor and track all user activity. Through its Zero Trust approach, which emphasizes continuous verification, the platform ensures secure access to assets and serves as the centralized human response and notification platform for addressing cyber and operational issues.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2021

A Study of Cost-Saving Potential of Load Flexibility Measures in Grid-Interactive Multifamily Buildings

With recent advances in smart technologies, more and more smart devices are penetrating the residential and commercial buildings market. The introduction of these smart devices is also helping IoT companies emerge with load aggregator roles in the sector. With more utility companies on the track of supporting OpenADR protocols, the aggregators could play a significant role in providing load flexibilities by automatically responding to demand response (DR) events and coordinating load flexibility measures between customers. This would benefit utility companies by reducing stress on the grid during critical peak demand hours as well as customers by allowing them to utilize utility rate structures advantageous to those able to reduce electric usage during high-demand hours. This study evaluates cost and energy savings from adopting multiple load flexibility measures in multifamily buildings. Combinations of different load flexibility measures, including space temperature floating, light dimming, automatic window shading, and water heater temperature floating, are considered. The simulations are performed using OpenStudio®, an open-source U.S. Department of Energy (DOE) simulation platform. For the case study, we used a midrise apartment building with weather conditions from Denver, Colorado. To compare climate zone differences, simulations were also performed for Los Angeles, California, and Chicago, Illinois. Initial results indicate that the application of automated load flexibility measures without careful consideration of dispatching strategies and DR program enrollments could significantly affect the savings. To get meaningful cost savings, aggregators need to encourage tenant awareness to curtail energy usage through occupant behavior in addition to dispatching automatic load flexibility measures. The outcomes from this study are believed to help load aggregators understand the risks and benefits of load flexibility opportunities.

building energy modeling↗
NASA NTRS2006

Zero to Integration in Eight Months, the Dawn Ground Data System Engineering Challange

The Dawn Project has presented the Ground Data System (GDS) with technical challenges driven by cost and schedule constraints commonly associated with National Aeronautics and Space Administration (NASA) Discovery Projects. The Dawn mission consists of a new and exciting Deep Space partnership among: the Jet Propulsion Laboratory (JPL), responsible for project management and flight operations; Orbital Sciences Corporation (OSC), spacecraft builder and responsible for flight system test and integration; and the University of California, at Los Angeles (UCLA), responsible for science planning and operations. As a cost-capped mission, one of Dawn s implementation strategies is to leverage from both flight and ground heritage. OSC's ground data system is used for flight system test and integration as part of the flight heritage strategy. Mission operations, however, are to be conducted with JPL s ground system. The system engineering challenge of dealing with two heterogeneous ground systems emerged immediately. During the first technical interchange meeting between the JPL s GDS Team and OSC's Flight Software Team, August 2003, the need to integrate the ground system with the flight software was brought to the table. This need was driven by the project s commitment to enable instrument engineering model integration in a spacecraft simulator environment, for both demonstration and risk mitigation purposes, by April 2004. This paper will describe the system engineering approach that was undertaken by JPL's GDS Team in order to meet the technical challenge within a non-negotiable eight-month schedule. Key to the success was adherence to an overall systems engineering process and fundamental systems engineering practices: decomposition of the project request into manageable requirements; definition of a structured yet flexible development process; integration of multiple ground disciplines and experts into a focused team effort; in-process risk management; and aggregation of the intermediate products to an integrated final product. In addition, this paper will highlight the role of lessons learned from the integration experience. The lessons learned from an early GDS deployment have served as the foundation for the design and implementation of the Dawn Ground Data System.

systems engineering↗
DOE OSTI2013

Geothermal Codification Impacts on Geothermal Development and Investments

The United States leads the world in geothermal energy production with 3187 MW online in 2012. Across the globe, advancing geothermal exploration technologies serves an important role in lowering geothermal development costs and decreasing exploration risk. However, the aggregation, analysis, and reporting of new geothermal resources lack standard reporting guidelines in most geothermal producing countries with the notable exception of Australia and Canada. In order for the United States to remain the global leader in geothermal energy development, the industry must continue to grow its investment potential. Providing prospective investors with geothermal resource estimates under clearly defined industry guidelines and standards would enhance industry credibility and ultimately encourage greater investor confidence in geothermal development. In 2009, an intergovernmental collaboration of experts developed the United Nations Framework Classification (UNFC), a universally applicable system for classifying and evaluating fossil energy and mineral resources. The U.S. geothermal industry can leverage the Canadian and Australian codes efforts and the UNFC to develop its own reporting standard for geothermal resources. This paper will review lessons learned from Australia and Canada's Geothermal Codification, analyze the impact of each effort on the nation's geothermal industry and investment climate, and begin to evaluate the utility of the UNFC in geothermal applications.

15 GEOTHERMAL ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2018

Effect of irradiation on silicate aggregates’ density and stiffness

We report that when exposed to high-energy radiations, the silicate aggregates used in concrete can exhibit some swelling. This, in turn, can result in some internal stress, which can lead to micro-cracks or de-bonding along the cement–aggregate interface. However, there is presently some uncertainty regarding the long-term effect of such high-energy irradiation on aggregates and the associated risk of cracking and failure. Here, based on atomistic simulations, we investigate the effect of neutron irradiation on eight silicate minerals belonging to three different mineralogical families. We demonstrate that the irradiation-induced alterations do not depend on the silicate family but rather on the inherent structure and composition of each mineral. Interestingly, we show that vitrification can be used as a surrogate to assess the upper limit of irradiation-induced swelling. Further, we observe that this swelling potentially leads to high internal stresses, which can result in the initiation and propagation of cracks. Lastly, these findings can guide the selection of optimal aggregate minerals for which the risk of concrete failure upon irradiation is minimized.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

In-Depth Modeling and Simulation Analysis of Artemis Missions Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. During an extended simulation modeling phase, IMPACT generated analytical results for medical risks, and the medical resources and capabilities to address those risks, for every segment of every crewed Artemis mission. This presentation will highlight the reliability, consistency and validity of IMPACT’s computational modeling techniques and will showcase the library of analytical outcomes generated for the Artemis missions. OVERVIEW During the early stages of IMPACT’s design, architecture and technical requirements collection, “scenarios” (use cases) - achievement goals required for acceptance testing, were identified by stakeholders. IMPACT successfully completed the scenario testing requirements and undertook an extensive operational run phase utilizing a wide range of input combinations with a goal of delivering a cohesive, trustworthy, reliable, vast, and diverse body of evidence. The intent of these modeling runs was to validate consistency in output, ensure solidity of executable operations and to streamline processes by identifying areas requiring efficiency improvements. Using the many missions of Artemis, IMPACT ran variations of operational runs to assess the output for acceptable, as well as unusual characteristics. This rigorous long-term “shakedown” analysis was implemented to help build a collective body of evidence to aid in securing a high level of confidence, reliability, and validity in the output, whether from the applicational components of IMPACT, or the entirety of the operational process. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION This presentation will discuss the various categories of input criteria; the comparisons in the application of these input criteria to various Artemis missions; the preparation and collection of the body of evidence, and reliability of the computational modeling techniques. This paper serves as an initial analytical overview of IMPACT’s probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk outputs covering Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

Crew Composition↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Introduction to the IMPACT Probabilistic Risk and Tradespace Analysis Tool for Medical System Design

Background: Probabilistic risk analysis (PRA) is a method for estimating risk in complex engineered systems that, at a basic level, focuses on what can go wrong and the likelihood and consequences of those occurrences. NASA has used PRA as an integral component of medical system risk estimation and design for spaceflight. IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool to meet these goals for exploration missions. Overview: IMPACT performs hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. These simulations are based on 120 possible medical conditions (the IMPACT Condition List) selected in a consensus-based process because they are of highest likelihood and/or consequence for exploration spaceflight. The conditions are then tied to clinical capabilities which can be used for management (e.g., inserting an IV) and then to over 600 specific resources needed to deliver a capability (e.g., an angiocath or an ultrasound). Different mission profiles can be simulated with user-specified inputs such as mission duration, destination, number of crew and pre-existing medical conditions, and EVA frequency. While the IMPACT evidence base is designed for exploration environments, these user inputs allow the tool to be used across a broad range of missions. IMPACT’s primary outcome metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL, a measure of in-flight mortality due to medical conditions), need for evacuation (RTDC, return to definitive care), and crew disability (TTL, task time lost based on how medical conditions impact the ability to perform over 1000 specific exploration mission crew tasks). In addition to modeling medical risk, IMPACT also accepts user-specified constraints, such as limitations of mass or volume, and will output a recommended clinical capability set and specific medical resources that meet the mission constraints. Discussion: This abstract will provide an introduction to IMPACT and describe the nature of the underlying medical evidence. It will also detail potential use cases for how this tool can be utilized by NASA or commercial spaceflight providers.

Ben Easter↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

Comparison of Artemis 2 and Artemis 5 Model Outcomes Using the Impact Probabilistic Risk Assessment Tool

BACKGROUND The Artemis campaign is a Moon exploration program with a series of six planned missions, five of which will be crewed. These five crewed missions will contain a single mission segment (space flight), or multiple mission segments involving space flight (Orion), lunar landing (LTV) and/or space habitat (Gateway). Each crewed segment faces the risk of unique medical conditions, necessitating medical sets/kits tailored to those specificities. To support and enable a data-driven and evidence-based decision-making process through out a mission’s life cycle, a software tool called IMPACT was developed. Using probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) methodologies, IMPACT (Informing Mission Planning via Analysis of Complex Tradespaces) is a novel tool built for analyzing the possibility of encountering complex medical risks during space flight, and for identifying the medical resources and capabilities needed to treat those potential at-risk medical conditions. This presentation will seek to compare IMPACT’s computational results upon potential complex space medical conditions (e.g., sprain/strain back or sleep disturbance) using IMPACT’s risk metrics and the associated optimized medical sets/kits between two Artemis missions: single segment Artemis 2 and multi-segmented Artemis 5. OVERVIEW By identifying potential medical conditions in space using input criteria such as crew quantity and composition, certain crew physical characteristics, mission duration and mission activities, IMPACT can produce analyses on the type of medical resources and capabilities needed to produce an optimized medical set/kit to address those medical conditions. IMPACT achieves this by performing hundreds of thousands of Monte Carlo simulations of missions to build aggregate pictures of medical risk. IMPACT’s risk metrics include loss of crew life (LOCL) – a measure of crew mortality due to medical conditions in space, return to definitive care (RTDC) – the need to perform crew evacuation, and task time lost (TTL) – a measure of the inability to perform activities due to crew disability. These risk metrics are applied to every medical condition identified by IMPACT’s computation analyses for every segment of the mission. Medical sets/kits are optimized to address these medical conditions but must fit within the stated Artemis Design Reference Mission (DRM) request for mass and volume physical size constraints. ANTICIPATED ANALYSIS AND CONCLUSION Using two Artemis missions, Artemis 2 and Artemis 5, IMPACT will provide the analyses for comparison of medical set/kit contents based upon mass and/or volume requirements and identify the at-risk medical conditions within both missions. This paper serves as an initial exploration of probabilistic risk assessment (PRA) medical risk calculations between two crewed Artemis missions and is not intended to be deemed the official medical response for the Artemis campaign.

probabilistic risk assessment↗