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Results for “Applied Probability”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
NASA NTRS1981

Reliability analysis of the F-8 digital fly-by-wire system

The F-8 Digital Fly-by-Wire (DFBW) flight test program intended to provide the technology for advanced control systems, giving aircraft enhanced performance and operational capability is addressed. A detailed analysis of the experimental system was performed to estimated the probabilities of two significant safety critical events: (1) loss of primary flight control function, causing reversion to the analog bypass system; and (2) loss of the aircraft due to failure of the electronic flight control system. The analysis covers appraisal of risks due to random equipment failure, generic faults in design of the system or its software, and induced failure due to external events. A unique diagrammatic technique was developed which details the combinatorial reliability equations for the entire system, promotes understanding of system failure characteristics, and identifies the most likely failure modes. The technique provides a systematic method of applying basic probability equations and is augmented by a computer program written in a modular fashion that duplicates the structure of these equations.

Brock, L. D.↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Quantile Estimation Approach for Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances.

Applied Probability↗
NASA NTRS1965

Contamination analysis and monitoring

"Sterilization" is a term applied to any process or procedure that produces a condition of sterility. Sterility is an absolute concept and refers to the destruction or removal of all life. However, when sterility as an absolute concept is applied to the sterilization of space hardware, it ceases to be operational. Absolute proof of sterility of flight hardware is impossible. Hence, for an operational approach to certification of sterility of space hardware, it is necessary to apply the probability concept. The present report is concerned with the applicability of mathematics to predict the probability of achieving sterility in a complex space hardware system. As such, this approach is concerned with the manipulation of microbiological data rather than mathematical rigor.

contamination↗
NASA NTRS1969

Diffusion of rays in random media.

Fokker-Planck equation applied to probability density for finding rays larger than correlation distance during propagation in random medium

Liu, C. H.↗
NASA NTRS1985

A simplified optical model description of heavy ion fragmentation

The abrasion-ablation model of heavy-ion frgmentation by target nuclei of Townsend (1983) and the EVAP Monte Carlo computer program (Guthrie, 1970) for decay probabilities are applied to calculate the production cross sections of isotopes of S, P, Si, and Al for the fragmentation of 213-MeV/nucleon Ar-40 ions by C-12 targets and of Fe, Mn, Cr, V, Ti, Sc, and Ca for 1.88-GeV Fe-56 fragmentation by Pb-208 and by C-12. The results are presented in tables and graphs and shown to be in good agreement with the experimental data of Viyogi et al. (1979) and Westfall et al. (1979). The implications of these studies for the design of radiation shielding for long-term manned space missions are indicated.

Townsend, L. W.↗
NASA NTRS1985

Systematic analysis of EOS data system for operations

A data management analysis methodology is being proposed. The objective of the methodology is to assist mission managers by identifying a series of ordered activities to be systematically followed in order to arrive at an effective ground system design. Existing system engineering tools and concepts have been assembled into a structured framework to facilitate the work of a mission planner. It is intended that this methodology can be gainfully applied (with probable modifications and/or changes) to the EOS payloads and their associated data systems.

Moe, K. L.↗
NASA NTRS1992

Detailed analysis of low energy plasma data under the Voyager Uranus data analysis program

Research effort included the PLS data analysis program where modifications to the data fitting procedure and elimination of possible noise and electron contamination were made. The analysis code corrections were used in checking the Neptune data gathered during the Voyager 2 encounter and for analyzing selected plasma spectra from the warm Io torus. A major task accomplished was the summary of Uranus-related research in the U.S. National Report to the International Union of Geodesy and Geophysics for the 1987 - 1990 quadrennium. A limited amount of work was accomplished on assessing the Pedersen conductivity of the ionosphere and comparing it with inferred values from shielding by the Uranian ring current. Under this grant there has been a great deal of effort expended on identifying and classifying plasma waves and oscillations in the magnetosheath and solar wind downstream from Uranus. Large amplitude oscillations in plasma parameters are found in the magnetosheath, with density changes of up to a factor of ten occurring on times scales of minutes. New algorithms developed for analyzing the inbound bow shock crossing of Neptune will probably be applied to a more detailed analysis of the Uranus shock in the near future.

Mcnutt, Ralph L., Jr.↗
NASA NTRS1993

Increasing accuracy in the assessment of motion sickness: A construct methodology

The purpose is to introduce a new methodology that should improve the accuracy of the assessment of motion sickness. This construct methodology utilizes both subjective reports of motion sickness and objective measures of physiological correlates to assess motion sickness. Current techniques and methods used in the framework of a construct methodology are inadequate. Current assessment techniques for diagnosing motion sickness and space motion sickness are reviewed, and attention is called to the problems with the current methods. Further, principles of psychophysiology that when applied will probably resolve some of these problems are described in detail.

Stout, Cynthia S.↗
NASA NTRS2001

Portfolios in Stochastic Local Search: Efficiently Computing Most Probable Explanations in Bayesian Networks

Portfolio methods support the combination of different algorithms and heuristics, including stochastic local search (SLS) heuristics, and have been identified as a promising approach to solve computationally hard problems. While successful in experiments, theoretical foundations and analytical results for portfolio-based SLS heuristics are less developed. This article aims to improve the understanding of the role of portfolios of heuristics in SLS. We emphasize the problem of computing most probable explanations (MPEs) in Bayesian networks (BNs). Algorithmically, we discuss a portfolio-based SLS algorithm for MPE computation, Stochastic Greedy Search (SGS). SGS supports the integration of different initialization operators (or initialization heuristics) and different search operators (greedy and noisy heuristics), thereby enabling new analytical and experimental results. Analytically, we introduce a novel Markov chain model tailored to portfolio-based SLS algorithms including SGS, thereby enabling us to analytically form expected hitting time results that explain empirical run time results. For a specific BN, we show the benefit of using a homogenous initialization portfolio. To further illustrate the portfolio approach, we consider novel additive search heuristics for handling determinism in the form of zero entries in conditional probability tables in BNs. Our additive approach adds rather than multiplies probabilities when computing the utility of an explanation. We motivate the additive measure by studying the dramatic impact of zero entries in conditional probability tables on the number of zero-probability explanations, which again complicates the search process. We consider the relationship between MAXSAT and MPE, and show that additive utility (or gain) is a generalization, to the probabilistic setting, of MAXSAT utility (or gain) used in the celebrated GSAT and WalkSAT algorithms and their descendants. Utilizing our Markov chain framework, we show that expected hitting time is a rational function - i.e. a ratio of two polynomials - of the probability of applying an additive search operator. Experimentally, we report on synthetically generated BNs as well as BNs from applications, and compare SGSs performance to that of Hugin, which performs BN inference by compilation to and propagation in clique trees. On synthetic networks, SGS speeds up computation by approximately two orders of magnitude compared to Hugin. In application networks, our approach is highly competitive in Bayesian networks with a high degree of determinism. In addition to showing that stochastic local search can be competitive with clique tree clustering, our empirical results provide an improved understanding of the circumstances under which portfolio-based SLS outperforms clique tree clustering and vice versa.

Mengshoel, Ole J.↗
NASA NTRS1984

GASP cloud encounter statistics - Implications for laminar flow control flight

The cloud observation archive from the NASA Global Atmospheric Sampling Program (GASP) is analyzed in order to derive the probability of cloud encounter at altitudes normally flown by commercial airliners, for application to a determination of the feasability of Laminar Flow Control (LFC) on long-range routes. The probability of cloud encounter is found to vary significantly with season. Several meteorological circulation features are apparent in the latitudinal distribution of cloud cover. The cloud encounter data are shown to be consistent with the classical midlatitude cyclone model with more clouds encountered in highs than in lows. Aircraft measurements of route-averaged time-in-clouds fit a gamma probability distribution model which is applied to estimate the probability of extended cloud encounter, and the associated loss of LFC effectiveness along seven high-density routes. The probability is demonstrated to be low.

Jasperson, W. H.↗
DOE OSTI2025

Continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine

Here, we propose a continuous-variable quantum Boltzmann machine (CVQBM) using a powerful energy-based neural network. It can be realized experimentally on a continuous-variable (CV) photonic quantum computer. We used a CV quantum imaginary time evolution (QITE) algorithm to prepare the essential thermal state and then designed the CVQBM to proficiently generate continuous probability distributions. We applied our method to both classical and quantum data. Using real-world classical data, such as synthetic-aperture radar (SAR) images, we generated probability distributions. For quantum data, we used the output of CV quantum circuits. We obtained high fidelity and low Kullback–Leibler (KL) divergence showing that our CVQBM learns distributions from given data well and generates data sampling from that distribution efficiently. We also discussed the experimental feasibility of our proposed CVQBM. Our method can be applied to a wide range of real-world problems by choosing an appropriate target distribution (corresponding to, e.g., SAR images, medical images, and risk management in finance). Moreover, our CVQBM is versatile and could be programmed to perform tasks beyond generation, such as anomaly detection.

SAR images↗
NASA NTRS1990

Combined trellis coding and feedforward processing for MSS applications

The idea of using a multiple (more than two) symbol observation interval to improve error probability performance is applied to differential detection of trellis coded MPSK over a mobile satellite (fading) channel. Results are obtained via computer simulation. It is shown that only a slight increase (e.g., one symbol) in the length of the observation interval will provide a significant improvement in bit error probability performance both in AWGN and fading environments.

Divsalar, D.↗
NASA NTRS2011

Geo-Statistical Approach to Estimating Asteroid Exploration Parameters

NASA's vision for space exploration calls for a human visit to a near earth asteroid (NEA). Potential human operations at an asteroid include exploring a number of sites and analyzing and collecting multiple surface samples at each site. In this paper two approaches to formulation and scheduling of human exploration activities are compared given uncertain information regarding the asteroid prior to visit. In the first approach a probability model was applied to determine best estimates of mission duration and exploration activities consistent with exploration goals and existing prior data about the expected aggregate terrain information. These estimates were compared to a second approach or baseline plan where activities were constrained to fit within an assumed mission duration. The results compare the number of sites visited, number of samples analyzed per site, and the probability of achieving mission goals related to surface characterization for both cases.

probability↗
NASA NTRS1990

The performance of trellis-coded MDPSK with multiple symbol detection

The idea of using a multiple (more than two) symbol observation interval to improve error probability performance is applied to differential detection of trellis-coded multiple phase-shift keying (MPSK) over an additive white Gaussian noise (AWGN) channel. An equivalent Euclidean distance measure per trellis branch is determined for this detection scheme. This is used to define an augmented (larger multiplicity) trellis code whose distance measure is the conventional squared Euclidean distance typical of conventional trellis-coded modulation on the AWGN. Such an augmented multiple trellis code is a convenient mathematical tool for simplifying the analysis. Results are obtained by a combination of analysis (upper Chernoff bounds and asymptotic large-SNR approximations) and computer simulation. It is shown that only a slight increase (e.g., one symbol) in the length of the observation interval will provide a significant improvement in bit error probability performance.

Divsalar, Dariush↗
DOE OSTI2025

A DECADE of dwarfs: first detection of weak lensing around spectroscopically confirmed low-mass galaxies

We present the first detection of weak gravitational lensing around spectroscopically confirmed dwarf galaxies, using the large overlap between DESI DR1 spectroscopic data and DECADE/DES weak lensing catalogs. A clean dwarf galaxy sample with well-defined redshift and stellar mass cuts enables excess surface mass density measurements in two stellar mass bins ($\log \rm{M}_*=[8.2, 9.2]~M_\odot$ and $\log \rm{M}_*=[9.2, 10.2]~M_\odot$), with signal-to-noise ratios of $5.6$ and $12.4$ respectively. This signal-to-noise drops to $4.5$ and $9.2$ respectively for measurements without applying individual inverse probability (IIP) weights, which mitigates fiber incompleteness from DESI's targeting. The measurements are robust against variations in stellar mass estimates, photometric shredding, and lensing calibration systematics. Using a simulation-based modeling framework with stellar mass function priors, we constrain the stellar mass-halo mass relation and find a satellite fraction of $\simeq 0.3$, which is higher than previous photometric studies but $1.5σ$ lower than $Λ$CDM predictions. We find that IIP weights have a significant impact on lensing measurements and can change the inferred $f_{\rm{sat}}$ by a factor of two, highlighting the need for accurate fiber incompleteness corrections for dwarf galaxy samples. Our results open a new observational window into the galaxy-halo connection at low masses, showing that future massively multiplexed spectroscopic observations and weak lensing data will enable stringent tests of galaxy formation models and $Λ$CDM predictions.

To, Chun-Hao [Chicago U., Astron. Astrophys. Ctr.;↗
DOE OSTI2024

Validation of a synthetic fast ion loss detector model for Wendelstein 7-X

Abstract We present the first validated synthetic diagnostic for fast ion loss detectors (FILDs) in the Wendelstein 7-X (W7-X) stellarator. This model has been developed on, and validated against experimental data from, a FILD provided by the National Institute for Fusion Science (NIFS-FILD), with potential future applicability to the existing Faraday Cup FILD (FC-FILD) on W7-X as well as the scintillating FILD (S-FILD) currently under development. A workflow combining Monte Carlo codes BEAMS3D and ASCOT5 is used to track fast ions produced by neutral beam injection from the moment of ionization until they are thermalized or lost from the last closed flux surface, and from there to a virtual plane which serves as a projection of the entrance aperture to the FILD. Simulations in ASCOT5 are analyzed via a geometric method to determine the probability of transmission through the FILD aperture and onto the detector as a function of normalized momentum, pitch angle, gyrophase, and position at the virtual plane. This probability is then applied to the simulated ions arriving from the plasma, producing a simulated signal from a computationally tractable number of simulated fast ions. Simulated signals are presented for two W7-X experiments with neutral beam injection and quantitatively compared with experimental measurements from the NIFS-FILD diagnostic. An estimate of the frequency of charge-exchange with neutral particles in the edge is performed, and it is found that this process may have a significant impact on the measured signals.

70 PLASMA PHYSICS AND FUSION TECHNOLOGY↗
NASA NTRS1969

On the bound of first excursion probability

Method has been developed to improve the lower bound of the first excursion probability that can apply to the problem with either constant or time-dependent barriers. The method requires knowledge of the joint density function of the random process at two arbitrary instants.

Yang, J. N.↗