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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2024

Magnetic tunnel junction random number generators applied to dynamically tuned probability trees driven by spin orbit torque

Abstract Perpendicular magnetic tunnel junction (pMTJ)-based true-random number generators (RNGs) can consume orders of magnitude less energy per bit than CMOS pseudo-RNGs. Here, we numerically investigate with a macrospin Landau–Lifshitz-Gilbert equation solver the use of pMTJs driven by spin–orbit torque to directly sample numbers from arbitrary probability distributions with the help of a tunable probability tree. The tree operates by dynamically biasing sequences of pMTJ relaxation events, called ‘coinflips’, via an additional applied spin-transfer-torque current. Specifically, using a single, ideal pMTJ device we successfully draw integer samples on the interval [0, 255] from an exponential distribution based on p -value distribution analysis. In order to investigate device-to-device variations, the thermal stability of the pMTJs are varied based on manufactured device data. It is found that while repeatedly using a varied device inhibits ability to recover the probability distribution, the device variations average out when considering the entire set of devices as a ‘bucket’ to agnostically draw random numbers from. Further, it is noted that the device variations most significantly impact the highest level of the probability tree, with diminishing errors at lower levels. The devices are then used to draw both uniformly and exponentially distributed numbers for the Monte Carlo computation of a problem from particle transport, showing excellent data fit with the analytical solution. Finally, the devices are benchmarked against CMOS and memristor RNGs, showing faster bit generation and significantly lower energy use.

77 NANOSCIENCE AND NANOTECHNOLOGY↗
DOE OSTI2022

Sensitivity analysis applied to SiC failure probability in TRISO modeled with BISON

Here, a sensitivity analysis on the failure probability of the Silicon Carbide (SiC) layer in tristructural isotropic (TRISO) nuclear fuel during transient conditions predicted by the BISON fuel performance code is performed. The principal goal of the analysis is to understand the most important parameters dictating SiC failure behavior in BISON during Reactivity Initiated Accidents (RIAs). SiC brittle fracture probability is modeled using Weibull statistics. A total of seven inputs related to SiC failure has been selected for the analysis, including the Weibull statistics parameters, elastic moduli for SiC and Pyrolitic Carbon (PyC) and SiC stress-free temperature. A 1D TRISO BISON model has been established for various reactivity insertions performed at the Nuclear Safety Research Reactor (NSRR). The principal advantage associated with the 1D TRISO model developed in this work is its computational efficiency. The Sobol variance decomposition method is used, and the sensitivity indices are presented for eight different values of the energy deposition. The results show that the two most important parameters impacting the predicted SiC failure probability are the Weibull modulus and the characteristic stress, and a co-variance amongst these parameters is obtained for low reactivity insertions. An additional new finding of this work is that the relative importance of Weibull parameters depends on the energy deposition, and thus reactivity, regime. For low energy depositions, two parameters are of influence on SiC failure probability, while for high energy depositions only one parameter impacts failure probability results. Moreover, optimization of the Weibull modulus and characteristic stress is performed by minimizing the RMSE between BISON failure probability predictions and experimental failure fractions for each energy deposition. This work also demonstrates the validity of the NSRR tests BISON simulations and of the respective sensitivity analysis results as conservative, yet indicative for slower transients characterized by lower deposited energies. Such verification is achieved through the partial extension of the analysis to a group Control Rod Withdrawal reproduced from a previous study. Another novel result of this analysis is that no single set of Weibull parameters can reproduce all reactivity insertion experimental failure results, which is related to the intrinsic nature of SiC failure properties, and a new range for the parameters is proposed to produce a failure probability envelope that encompasses the experimental fractions. Additionaly, this work proposes a new approach for future failure analysis with BISON, consisting in the use of Weibull parameters ranges, rather than fixed sets, along with failure envelopes generation.

22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
NASA NTRSDate not supplied

The Evolution of the Impact Evidence Library Methods – What We Learned

During fiscal years 2020-2022 NASA’s Human Research Program, Exploration Medical Capability Element has worked to source this evidence for the model. During the process several lessons learned have been identified and drive recommendations for future efforts. The ICL 1.0: Spaceflight Medical Operational expertise should be consulted regarding the addition of future conditions. A clinician experienced with the nuances of spaceflight is recommended to have a minimum of 20 hours per condition to adequately source the evidence. Condition definitions should be carefully crafted to maintain mutual exclusivity. Common side effects from medications, common and consequential incidental findings in laboratory studies, and consequential side effects of diagnostic and procedural capabilities should be considered for inclusion as unique conditions in future iterations of the ICL 1.0. Incidence: Spaceflight incidence, although based on small population sizes, is the gold standard. Terrestrial incidence should be applied cautiously. Probability of minor vs. severe cases of the condition: Data informing severity probability of the medical condition are nearly always terrestrial. Special attention should be paid to this metric as it drives outcomes in the model and terrestrial data often overestimate severity of expected cases in spaceflight. Condition duration: Three clinical phases currently exist in the model. They represent the time necessary for diagnosis, treatment/convalescence/recurrence, and the remaining duration of the mission after maximal recovery, respectively. Further subdivision of acute and convalescent treatment/recurrence is recommended. Probability of need for evacuation: Surrogates for “Return to Definitive Care” were chosen prior to data collection. In most cases these surrogates were “need for hospitalization” or “need for surgery.” For many conditions these may not be realistic drivers of “Return to Definitive Care” and should be re-examined. Probability of Crew Mortality: Terrestrial mortality data is difficult to apply to astronauts who, invariably, have less comorbidities than terrestrial subjects. It must be applied judiciously. The proportion of mission tasks impaired by the condition: “Task Impairment” was assigned to each condition prior to the condition duration data becoming available. Future efforts should assign Task Impairment as the final step in sourcing the evidence.

A.J. Kreykes↗
DOE OSTI2024

Reliability comparisons between additively manufactured and conventional SiC–Si ceramic composites

Abstract An additively manufactured reaction‐bonded silicon carbide ceramic composite is fabricated using a bimodal powder feedstock and the binder‐jetting printing technique. On fabricating, the ceramic is investigated to report its composition, mechanical, and thermal properties at room temperature and high temperatures (up to 750). The ceramic has a density of 2.76 g/cc, and shows a hardness of 21.74 GPa, and a flexure strength of 207.5 MPa at room temperature. The mechanical property of flexure strength is used to estimate its failure probability under applied stress, using a Weibull distribution. The mechanical properties and failure probabilities are compared with those of conventionally fabricated reaction‐bonded silicon carbide ceramics reported in the literature. These ceramics were fabricated using methods such as slip‐casting, compacting, and tape‐casting. The comparison is used to elucidate the advantages and areas of improvement of the present additive manufacturing technique for reaction‐bonded ceramics.

14 SOLAR ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2015

Learn-as-you-go acceleration of cosmological parameter estimates

Cosmological analyses can be accelerated by approximating slow calculations using a training set, which is either precomputed or generated dynamically. However, this approach is only safe if the approximations are well understood and controlled. This paper surveys issues associated with the use of machine-learning based emulation strategies for accelerating cosmological parameter estimation. We describe a learn-as-you-go algorithm that is implemented in the Cosmo++ code and (1) trains the emulator while simultaneously estimating posterior probabilities; (2) identifies unreliable estimates, computing the exact numerical likelihoods if necessary; and (3) progressively learns and updates the error model as the calculation progresses. We explicitly describe and model the emulation error and show how this can be propagated into the posterior probabilities. We apply these techniques to the Planck likelihood and the calculation of ΛCDM posterior probabilities. The computation is significantly accelerated without a pre-defined training set and uncertainties in the posterior probabilities are subdominant to statistical fluctuations. We have obtained a speedup factor of 6.5 for Metropolis-Hastings and 3.5 for nested sampling. Finally, we discuss the general requirements for a credible error model and show how to update them on-the-fly.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1986

Volatile solubities in magmas - Transport of volatiles from mantles to planet surfaces

The solubility of CO2, CO, CH4, H2, and H2O in melts of NaAlSi3O8 composition was measured at the mantle conditions of pressure (10-20 Kb) and temperature (1200 C). The melt volatiles were found to have dramatically lower H2/H2O and higher CO/CO2 ratios than the fluid, due to large variations in relative solubilities of volatile species in the melt. Partial melting of source regions of either high or low oxygen fugacity (fO2) will result in magmas with intermediate fO2. This means that volcanic gases can be either more, or less reducing than their source regions and that a volcanic gas composition cannot be used to directly estimate either the fO2 or the volatile composition of the source region. The results suggest that volcanic gases will usually lie in the 'neutral' range, with the fO2 values near those of the quartz-fayalite-magnetite buffer. These gases are predominately H2O with minor CO2, CO, CH4, and H2. These conclusions should apply to earth, Mars, and Venus mantles, in which the magmas produced by partial melting have moderate silica contents, but will probably not apply to very low silica magmas, such as kimberlites, because of the very high solubility of CO2 in those magmas.

Holloway, J. R.↗
DOE OSTI2012

CYCLIC TRANSIT PROBABILITIES OF LONG-PERIOD ECCENTRIC PLANETS DUE TO PERIASTRON PRECESSION

The observed properties of transiting exoplanets are an exceptionally rich source of information that allows us to understand and characterize their physical properties. Unfortunately, only a relatively small fraction of the known exoplanets discovered using the radial velocity technique are known to transit their host due to the stringent orbital geometry requirements. For each target, the transit probability and predicted transit time can be calculated to great accuracy with refinement of the orbital parameters. However, the transit probability of short period and eccentric orbits can have a reasonable time dependence due to the effects of apsidal and nodal precession, thus altering their transit potential and predicted transit time. Here we investigate the magnitude of these precession effects on transit probabilities and apply this to the known radial velocity exoplanets. We assess the refinement of orbital parameters as a path to measuring these precessions and cyclic transit probabilities.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
NASA NTRS1994

Innovation and application of ANN in Europe demonstrated by Kohonen maps

One of the most important contributions to neural networks comes from Kohonen, Helsinki/Espoo, Finland, who had the idea of self-organizating maps in 1981. He verified his idea by an algorithm of which many applications make use of. The impetus for this idea came from biology, a field where the Europeans have always been very active at several research laboratories. The challenge was to model the self-organization found in the brain. Today one goal is the development of more sophisticated neurons which model the biological neurons more exactly. They should come to a better performance of neural nets with only a few complex neurons instead of many simple ones. A lot of application concepts arise from this idea: Kohonen himself applied it to speech recognition, but the project did not overcome much more than the recognition of the numerals one to ten at that time. A more promising application for self-organizing maps is process control and process monitoring. Several proposals were made which concern parameter classification of semiconductor technologies, design of integrated circuits, and control of chemical processes. Self-organizing maps were applied to robotics. The neural concept was introduced into electric power systems. At Dortmund we are working on a system which has to monitor the quality and the reliability of gears and electrical motors in equipment installed in coal mines. The results are promising and the probability to apply the system in the field is very high. A special feature of the system is that linguistic rules which are embedded in a fuzzy controller analyze the data of the self-organizing map in regard to life expectation of the gears. It seems that the fuzzy technique will introduce the technology of neural networks in a tandem mode. These technologies together with the genetic algorithms start to form the attractive field of computational intelligence.

Goser, Karl↗
NASA NTRS1992

Structural Deterministic Safety Factors Selection Criteria and Verification

Though current deterministic safety factors are arbitrarily and unaccountably specified, its ratio is rooted in resistive and applied stress probability distributions. This study approached the deterministic method from a probabilistic concept leading to a more systematic and coherent philosophy and criterion for designing more uniform and reliable high-performance structures. The deterministic method was noted to consist of three safety factors: a standard deviation multiplier of the applied stress distribution; a K-factor for the A- or B-basis material ultimate stress; and the conventional safety factor to ensure that the applied stress does not operate in the inelastic zone of metallic materials. The conventional safety factor is specifically defined as the ratio of ultimate-to-yield stresses. A deterministic safety index of the combined safety factors was derived from which the corresponding reliability proved the deterministic method is not reliability sensitive. The bases for selecting safety factors are presented and verification requirements are discussed. The suggested deterministic approach is applicable to all NASA, DOD, and commercial high-performance structures under static stresses.

Verderaime, V.↗
NASA NTRS1981

Reliability analysis of the F-8 digital fly-by-wire system

The F-8 Digital Fly-by-Wire (DFBW) flight test program intended to provide the technology for advanced control systems, giving aircraft enhanced performance and operational capability is addressed. A detailed analysis of the experimental system was performed to estimated the probabilities of two significant safety critical events: (1) loss of primary flight control function, causing reversion to the analog bypass system; and (2) loss of the aircraft due to failure of the electronic flight control system. The analysis covers appraisal of risks due to random equipment failure, generic faults in design of the system or its software, and induced failure due to external events. A unique diagrammatic technique was developed which details the combinatorial reliability equations for the entire system, promotes understanding of system failure characteristics, and identifies the most likely failure modes. The technique provides a systematic method of applying basic probability equations and is augmented by a computer program written in a modular fashion that duplicates the structure of these equations.

Brock, L. D.↗
DOE OSTI2012

Distributed resonance self-shielding using the equivalence principle

This paper presents an extension of the equivalence principle to allow distributed resonance self-shielding in a multi-region fuel configuration. Rational expansion of fuel-to-fuel collision probability is applied in order to establish equivalence between the actual fuel configuration and a homogeneous mixture of hydrogen and resonant absorber, which is a commonly used model to calculate library tables of resonance integrals. The main steps in derivation are given along with the basic physics assumptions on which the presented approach relies. The method has been implemented in the lattice code WIMS-AECL and routinely used for calculation of CANDU-type reactor lattices. Its capabilities are illustrated by comparison of WIMS-AECL and MCNP results of {sup 238}U resonance capture in a CANDU lattice cell. In order to determine optimal rational expansion of fuel-to-fuel collision probability, the calculations were carried out by varying the number of rational terms from 1 to 6. The results show that 4 terms are sufficient. The further increase of the number of terms affects the computing time, while the impact on accuracy is negligible. To illustrate the convergence of the results, the fuel subdivision is gradually refined varying the number of fuel pin subdivisions from 1 to 32 equal-area annuli. The results show very good agreement with the reference MCNP calculation. (authors)

21 SPECIFIC NUCLEAR REACTORS AND ASSOCIATED PLANTS↗
DOE OSTI2014

Estimating the epidemic threshold on networks by deterministic connections

For many epidemic networks some connections between nodes are treated as deterministic, while the remainder are random and have different connection probabilities. By applying spectral analysis to several constructed models, we find that one can estimate the epidemic thresholds of these networks by investigating information from only the deterministic connections. Nonetheless, in these models, generic nonuniform stochastic connections and heterogeneous community structure are also considered. The estimation of epidemic thresholds is achieved via inequalities with upper and lower bounds, which are found to be in very good agreement with numerical simulations. Since these deterministic connections are easier to detect than those stochastic connections, this work provides a feasible and effective method to estimate the epidemic thresholds in real epidemic networks.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

An Empirical Quantile Estimation Approach for Chance-Constrained Nonlinear Optimization Problems

We investigate an empirical quantile estimation approach to solve chance-constrained nonlinear optimization problems. Our approach is based on the reformulation of the chance constraint as an equivalent quantile constraint to provide stronger signals on the gradient. In this approach, the value of the quantile function is estimated empirically from samples drawn from the random parameters, and the gradient of the quantile function is estimated via a finite-difference approximation on top of the quantile-function-value estimation. We establish a convergence theory of this approach within the framework of an augmented Lagrangian method for solving general nonlinear constrained optimization problems. The foundation of the convergence analysis is a concentration property of the empirical quantile process, and the analysis is divided based on whether or not the quantile function is differentiable. In contrast to the sampling-and-smoothing approach used in the literature, the method developed in this paper does not involve any smoothing function and hence the quantile-function gradient approximation is easier to implement and there are less accuracy-control parameters to tune. Furthermore, we demonstrate the effectiveness of this approach and compare it with a smoothing method for the quantile-gradient estimation. Numerical investigation shows that the two approaches are competitive for certain problem instances.

Applied Probability↗
DOE OSTI2013

Synthesis of TiO{sub 2} core/RuO{sub 2} shell particles using multistep ultrasonic spray pyrolysis

Graphical abstract: - Highlights: • TiO{sub 2} core/RuO{sub 2} shell submicron-particles were prepared via a sequential spray pyrolysis. • Spherical particles have the mean particle diameters between 200 and 400 nm. • This method is promising for synthesis of core–shell and core–multishell materials. - Abstract: Spherical submicron-particles with TiO{sub 2} core–RuO{sub 2} shell structure have been synthesized by employing sequential ultrasonic spray pyrolysis. The particles have been investigated by X-ray powder diffraction, scanning electron microscopy and different transmission electron microscopy techniques. The quality of the core–shell structure of the particles has been confirmed by comparison of the experimental data with those generated on the basis of a hard sphere core–shell model. It has been found that the mixing of the Ru-containing aerosol with the TiO{sub 2} particle stream has a significant impact on the core–shell formation. The method introduced in this study can probably be applied for preparation of core–shell and core–multishell materials that are difficult to synthesize in a single step spray pyrolysis process.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2018

Analysis of Solids Flow Rate through Nonmechanical L-Valve in an Industrial-Scale Circulating Fluidized Bed Using Group B Particles

A series of statistically designed experiments were conducted using two different Geldart Group B particles in a 0.3 m diameter circulating fluidized bed (CFB) cold model to evaluate the nonmechanical L-valve for controlling the solids flow rate. The objective of this study was to investigate the effects of standpipe aeration, L-valve aeration, solids inventory, and superficial gas velocity through the riser on the solids flow rate. A stochastic correlation was developed for calculating the solid flow rate as a function of these variables. It was found that the solid flow rate increased directly proportional to each of these variables. Dimensional analysis was used to generate an expression for the solids turnover ratio. The model developed in the present study is intended to simulate flow in the present CFB loop. In conclusion, it is not intended for scale-up and will probably not apply for alternative CFB loops with different geometries/pressure balance conditions.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2014

Critique of information geometry

As applied to probability, information geometry fails because probability distributions do not form a metric space. Probability theory rests on a compelling foundation of elementary symmetries, which also support information (aka minus entropy, Kullback-Leibler) H(p;q) as the unique measure of divergence from source probability distribution q to destination p. Because the only compatible connective H is from≠to asymmetric, H(p;q)≠H(q;p), there can be no compatible geometrical distance (which would necessarily be from=to symmetric). Hence there is no distance relationship compatible with the structure of probability theory. Metrics g and densities sqrt(det(g)) interpreted as prior probabilities follow from the definition of distance, and must fail likewise. Various metrics and corresponding priors have been proposed, Fisher's being the most popular, but all must behave unacceptably. This is illustrated with simple counter-examples.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2015

Observational diagnostics of self-gravitating MHD turbulence in giant molecular clouds

We study the observable signatures of self-gravitating magnetohydrodynamics (MHD) turbulence by applying the probability density functions (PDFs) and the spatial density power spectrum to synthetic column density maps. We find that there exists three characterizable stages of the evolution of the collapsing cloud which we term “early,” “intermediate,” and “advanced.” At early times, i.e., t<0.15t{sub ff}, the column density has a power spectral slope similar to nongravitating supersonic turbulence and a lognormal distribution. At an intermediate stage, i.e., 0.15t{sub ff} 0.35t{sub ff}, the power spectral slope is positive valued, and a dramatic increase is observed in the PDF moments and the Tsallis incremental PDF parameters, which gives rise to deviations between PDF-sonic Mach number relations. Finally, we show that the imprint of gravity on the density power spectrum can be replicated in non-gravitating turbulence by introducing a delta-function with amplitude equivalent to the maximum valued point in a given self-gravitating map. We find that the turbulence power spectrum restored through spatial filtering of the high density material.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗