Near real-time subseasonal forecasting of atmospheric rivers during Winter 2017-2018 and 2018-2019
UNKNOWN
Subramanian, Aneesh↗
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Forecasting SEP Atmospheric and Space Radiation Using UMASEP and NAIRAS Models
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Christopher J Mertens↗
Moisture Forecast Bias Correction in GEOS DAS
Data assimilation methods rely on numerous assumptions about the errors involved in measuring and forecasting atmospheric fields. One of the more disturbing of these is that short-term model forecasts are assumed to be unbiased. In case of atmospheric moisture, for example, observational evidence shows that the systematic component of errors in forecasts and analyses is often of the same order of magnitude as the random component. we have implemented a sequential algorithm for estimating forecast moisture bias from rawinsonde data in the Goddard Earth Observing System Data Assimilation System (GEOS DAS). The algorithm is designed to remove the systematic component of analysis errors and can be easily incorporated in an existing statistical data assimilation system. We will present results of initial experiments that show a significant reduction of bias in the GEOS DAS moisture analyses.
Dee, D.↗
Interactive Vegetation Phenology, Soil Moisture, and Monthly Temperature Forecasts
The time scales that characterize the variations of vegetation phenology are generally much longer than those that characterize atmospheric processes. The explicit modeling of phenological processes in an atmospheric forecast system thus has the potential to provide skill to subseasonal or seasonal forecasts. We examine this possibility here using a forecast system fitted with a dynamic vegetation phenology model. We perform three experiments, each consisting of 128 independent warm-season monthly forecasts: 1) an experiment in which both soil moisture states and carbon states (e.g., those determining leaf area index) are initialized realistically, 2) an experiment in which the carbon states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts, and 3) an experiment in which both the carbon and soil moisture states are prescribed to climatology throughout the forecasts. Evaluating the monthly forecasts of air temperature in each ensemble against observations, as well as quantifying the inherent predictability of temperature within each ensemble, shows that dynamic phenology can indeed contribute positively to subseasonal forecasts, though only to a small extent, with an impact dwarfed by that of soil moisture.
Seasonal Forecasting↗
Improving Ocean Reanalyses and ENSO Forecasts By Assimilation of Rain-Corrected Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Using the GMOA S2s Forecast System
The ENSO phenomenon has a significant global socio-economic impact and has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of satellite altimetry and subsurface temperature and salinity from (mostly) Argo help improve the initialization of the thermocline, while satellite SST aids in constraining surface heat-fluxes, leading to improved coupled system sub-seasonal to seasonal forecasts. However, few studies have focused on improving the near-surface density and mixing through satellite sea surface salinity (SSS) assimilation. The few ocean models that assimilate satellite SSS, bias correct to normalize towards the near-surface Argo data for expediency. This assumption is likely inadequate in rainy regions, where buoyant water forms a fresh surface lens. In previous work, we showed that adjusting SSS to bulk salinity (Sb) using the Rain Impact Model (RIM) of Santos-Garcia et al., 2014 improves the near-surface density and mixed layer depth, leading to deeper thermocline and improved NINO3.4 SST forecasts. We now utilize the Soil Moisture and Ocean Salinity rain-corrected (SMOS_RC) SSS, available in SMOS-CATDS products, to represent Sb more accurately at the first model layer (e.g., 5 m). Rather than a diffusivity model as RIM, SMOS_RC uses a statistical correction dependent on Integrated Multi-satellitE Retrievals for GPM (IMERG) rain rates, established on observed SMOS SSS decreases related to Sb in the presence of rain (Supply et al., 2020). For all experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis additionally assimilates SMOS SSS data as is, and a separate reanalysis assimilates SMOS_RC. We assess the impact on near-surface and subsurface dynamics by validating against observations and explore how SSS assimilation (SMOS vs SMOS_RC) impacts ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to Seasonal coupled forecast system (S2S-v3, Molod et al. 2020). We show that improved estimates of density and near-surface mixing led to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better ENSO forecasts. The increased SSS, resulting from the removal of the instantaneous rain effect, modifies the ocean state by enhancing mixing and deepening the thermocline.
Veronica Ruiz Xomchuk↗
Effect of Rain-Adjusted Satellite Sea Surface Salinity on ENSO Predictions from the GMAO S2S Forecast System
ENSO has a significant impact on climate variability throughout the world and so has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of altimetry and in situ data lead to improved short-term forecasts of the coupled system. However, few studies have focused on improving the near-surface density/mixing through assimilation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS). For expediency, most projects that do assimilate SSS do so as if these data were observed at the top model layer instead of at the surface. In rainy regions where buoyant water sits as a fresh lens at the surface, this assumption is likely invalid. Therefore, we adjust SSS so that it more accurately represents the salinity at the first model layer. The Rain Impact Model (RIM) uses a simple diffusion model to determine the near surface salinity gradient (i.e., 1 cm to 5 m). Satellite SSS data are modified using this near-surface salinity gradient, so the salinity values are now valid at the first model layer (we call this SSS@5m). We assess the impact of satellite SSS observations for near-surface dynamics within ocean reanalyses and how these impact dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO S2S coupled system. For all reanalysis experiments, all available along-track sea level and in situ observations are assimilated for 2011 to 2020 using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis assimilates Aquarius /SMAP SSS as before. An additional reanalysis is performed assimilating the SSS@5m data. Validation statistics are compared for experiments that assimilate SSS (sub-optimally as before) versus the SSS@5m. We also compare results of coupled forecasts that are initialized from these reanalyses in spring. For all but the big La Niña in 2017, all NINO3.4 forecasts were improved by using the RIM. We will show that improved SSS estimates upgrades density and near-surface mixing leading to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better forecasts.
ENSO↗
Coupled Data Assimilation for Integrated Earth System Analysis and Prediction: Goals, Challenges, and Recommendations
The purpose of this report is to identify fundamental issues for coupled data assimilation (CDA), such as gaps in science and limitations in forecasting systems, in order to provide guidance to the World Meteorological Organization (WMO) on how to facilitate more rapid progress internationally. Coupled Earth system modeling provides the opportunity to extend skillful atmospheric forecasts beyond the traditional two-week barrier by extracting skill from low-frequency state components such as the land, ocean, and sea ice. More generally, coupled models are needed to support seamless prediction systems that span timescales from weather, subseasonal to seasonal (S2S), multiyear, and decadal. Therefore, initialization methods are needed for coupled Earth system models, either applied to each individual component (called Weakly Coupled Data Assimilation - WCDA) or applied the coupled Earth system model as a whole (called Strongly Coupled Data Assimilation - SCDA). Using CDA, in which model forecasts and potentially the state estimation are performed jointly, each model domain benefits from observations in other domains either directly using error covariance information known at the time of the analysis (SCDA), or indirectly through flux interactions at the model boundaries (WCDA). Because the non-atmospheric domains are generally under-observed compared to the atmosphere, CDA provides a significant advantage over single-domain analyses. Next, we provide a synopsis of goals, challenges, and recommendations to advance CDA: Goals: (a) Extend predictive skill beyond the current capability of NWP (e.g. as demonstrated by improving forecast skill scores), (b) produce physically consistent initial conditions for coupled numerical prediction systems and reanalyses (including consistent fluxes at the domain interfaces), (c) make best use of existing observations by allowing observations from each domain to influence and improve the full earth system analysis, (d) develop a robust observation-based identification and understanding of mechanisms that determine the variability of weather and climate, (e) identify critical weaknesses in coupled models and the earth observing system, (f) generate full-field estimates of unobserved or sparsely observed variables, (g) improve the estimation of the external forcings causing changes to climate, (h) transition successes from idealized CDA experiments to real-world applications. Challenges: (a) Modeling at the interfaces between interacting components of coupled Earth system models may be inadequate for estimating uncertainty or error covariances between domains, (b) current data assimilation methods may be insufficient to simultaneously analyze domains containing multiple spatiotemporal scales of interest, (c) there is no standardization of observation data or their delivery systems across domains, (d) the size and complexity of many large-scale coupled Earth system models makes it is difficult to accurately represent uncertainty due to model parameters and coupling parameters, (e) model errors lead to local biases that can transfer between the different Earth system components and lead to coupled model biases and long-term model drift, (e) information propagation across model components with different spatiotemporal scales is extremely complicated, and must be improved in current coupled modeling frameworks, (h) there is insufficient knowledge on how to represent evolving errors in non-atmospheric model components (e.g. as sea ice, land and ocean) on the timescales of NWP.
CDA↗
Influences of North Pacific Ocean Domain Extent on the Western U.S. Winter Hydroclimatology in Variable-Resolution CESM
Variable-resolution global climate models (VRGCMs) are a dynamical downscaling method that can reach spatiotemporal scales needed for regional climate assessments. Over the years, several users of VRGCMs have assumed where the location and extent of the refinement domain should be based on knowledge of the prevailing storm tracks and resolution dependence of important regional climate processes (e.g., atmospheric rivers [ARs] and orographic uplift), but the effect of high-resolution domain size and extent on the simulation of downstream hydroclimatic phenomena has not been systematically evaluated. Here, we use variable resolution in the Community Earth System Model (VR-CESM) to perform such a test. To do this, three VR-CESM grids were generated that span the entire, two thirds, and one third of the North Pacific and evaluated for a 30-year climatology using Atmospheric Model Intercomparison Project protocols. Simulations are compared with reanalysis products offshore (fifth-generation of the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis [ERA5]) and onshore (Livneh, 2015, https://doi.org/10.1038/sdata.2015.42, and Parameter-elevation Regressions on Independent Slopes Model [PRISM]) of the western United States. The westward expansion of refinement domain influenced integrated vapor transport (IVT), which was generally high biased but minimally impacted AR characteristics. Due to slight differences in landfalling AR counts in the western United States, California winter precipitation generally improved with westward expansion of the refinement domain. Western U.S. mountain snowpack and surface temperatures were insensitive to refinement domain size and were more influenced by changes in topographic resolution and/or land surface model version. Here, given minimal dependence of simulated western U.S. hydroclimate on refinement domain size over the North Pacific, we advise future VR-CESM studies to focus grid resolution on better resolving land surface heterogeneity.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Improving Ocean Reanalyses and ENSO Forecasts By Assimilation of Rain Corrected Satellite Sea Surface Salinity Using the GMAO S2S Forecast System
During the past years, we have seen that the La Nina to El Nino transition has had a significant global socio-economic impact and so has been the key focus for improving coupled ocean-atmosphere forecasts. Assimilation of satellite altimetry and subsurface temperature and salinity from (mostly) Argo help to improve the initialization of the thermocline, while satellite Sea Surface Temperature (SST) aids in constraining surface heat-fluxes, leading to improved subseasonal to seasonal forecasts of the coupled system. However, few studies have focused on improving the fresh-water flux and near-surface density and mixing through assimilation of satellite sea surface salinity (SSS). For expediency, the few ocean models that do assimilate SSS bias-correct the satellite SSS data to normalize towards the near-surface Argo data. However, in rainy regions, where buoyant water sits as a fresh lens at the surface, this assumption is likely inadequate. In previous work, we have shown that adjusting SSS data to bulk salinity (Sb) using the Rain Impact Model (RIM) of Santos-Garcia et al., 2014 has improved the near-surface density and mixed layer depth, leading to deeper thermocline and improved the NINO3.4 SST forecasts. Now we utilize the Soil Moisture/Ocean Salinity, Rain Corrected (SMOS_RC) SSS product provided by the Centre Aval de Traitement des données SMOS (CATDS CPDC) to represent the Sb more accurately at first model layer (in our case 5 m). Rather than using a diffusivity model as with RIM, SMOS_RC relies on an observed relationship between the spatial heterogeneity of SMOS SSS and instantaneous rain rate (RR) (Supply et al., 2020). In order to test the impact of SMOS_RC versus SMOS, we compare two reanalyses over the period 2014 to 2021. For both reanalysis experiments, all available along-track absolute dynamic topography and in situ observations are assimilated using the LETKF scheme (Penny et al., 2013). One reanalysis additionally assimilates SMOS SSS data as is (i.e., with the fresh bias), and a separate reanalysis is performed assimilating the SMOS_RC data. We assess the impact for near-surface and subsurface dynamics within ocean reanalyses by validating against observations and explore how SSS assimilation (SMOS versus SMOS_RC) impacts dynamical ENSO forecasts using the NASA GMAO Sub-seasonal to Seasonal coupled forecast system (GEOS S2S-3, Molod et al., 2020, Hackert et al., 2023). We will show that improved SSS estimates and near-surface density and mixing led to more accurate coupled air/sea interaction and better ENSO forecasts.
Eric Hackert↗
Measure sea level air pressure from space to improve knowledge and forecasting of the atmospheric state
Modern numerical weather prediction (NWP) and analysis models require globally-observed meteorological data including sea-level pressure (SLP) for accurate operations. Up until now, SLP has only been measured by in situ instruments from ships, buoys, and ocean platforms. These measurements are sparse with large gaps, leaving models starved of this critical information to constrain the atmospheric state. Recent advancements in differential absorption radar (DAR) provide a path to close this critical observation gap through spaceborne observations in the coming decade, improving the analysis models relied upon for atmospheric research and the weather forecasts depended upon daily for public safety and commerce.
Matthew L Walker McLinden↗
Improving NASA GEOS Atmospheric CO2 Simulations by Calibrating CASA Surface Fluxes with an Empirical Sink
With the adoption of the Paris climate accord, efforts to monitor and understand both anthropogenic and natural carbon sources and sinks are increasing across the world. Given their low latency and global coverage, satellite observations of atmospheric carbon dioxide (CO2) are poised to make important contributions to this field. The combination of satellite data and high resolution global models can be used to monitor changes in carbon fluxes and to evaluate the consistency of nationally reported emissions estimates in support of multiple stakeholder communities. However, a consistent challenge to such work has been the high latency of surface carbon flux estimates, which are often not available for a year or more. This presentation describes the construction of surface carbon flux estimates meant to improve the near real time simulation of atmospheric CO2 with NASA's Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) general circulation model. The surface flux estimates begin with a collection of bottom-up fluxes which incorporate satellite measurements in their construction, e.g. vegetation indices in the Carnegie-Ames-Stanford Approach (CASA) and nighttime lights in the Open-source Data Inventory for Anthropogenic CO2 (ODIAC). From there, we take the additional step of using an empirical sink to calibrate terrestrial net biospheric exchange (NBE) to estimated values from atmospheric inversion systems. This approach removes a known, systematic bias in predicted atmospheric mixing ratios. Using these fluxes in a free running simulation, the model is able to reproduce in situ measurements with the same skill as when it uses gridded fluxes from a flux inversion system. Using these fluxes as a prior in an assimilation system, e.g. one incorporating retrievals of column CO2 from the Orbiting Carbon Observatory 2 (OCO-2), allows the analysis to capture variability in CO2 on scales that would be missed otherwise. This approach supports NASA's capability to forecast atmospheric CO2 up to two weeks in advance by leveraging a GEOS system used to produce quasi-operational weather analyses and forecasts, providing a valuable new tool to the carbon monitoring research and applications communities.
Weir, B.↗
Analyzing and Exploring Training Recipes for Large-Scale Transformer-Based Weather Prediction
Abstract The rapid rise of deep learning (DL) in numerical weather prediction (NWP) has led to a proliferation of models which forecast atmospheric variables with comparable or superior skill than traditional physics-based NWP. However, among these leading DL models, there is a wide variance in both the training settings and architecture used. Further, the lack of thorough ablation studies makes it hard to discern which components are most critical to success. In this work, we show that it is possible to attain high forecast skill even with relatively off-the-shelf architectures, simple training procedures, and moderate compute budgets. Specifically, we train a minimally modified Swin Transformer V2 (SwinV2) on ERA5 data and find that it attains superior skill in terms of mean-square errors of deterministic forecasts when compared against the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS). Almost all DL–NWP systems share a core set of hyperparameters and design decisions. To aid and expedite future DL–NWP research, we present an in-depth, systematic exploration of different loss functions, model sizes and depths, patch sizes, and multistep training objectives. We also examine the model performance with metrics beyond the typical accuracy (ACC) and RMSE and investigate how the performance scales with model size. Through our open-source code, scoring pipelines, and models, we share our findings on key aspects of the training pipeline. These ablations reduce the necessity for expensive hyperparameter tuning and lower the barrier to entry for future DL–NWP research. Significance Statement This study investigates the potential of using large-scale transformer-based models for weather prediction, showing that it is possible to achieve high forecast accuracy with simpler, off-the-shelf architectures. By training a minimally modified SwinV2 transformer on ERA5 data, we show that the model achieves competitive forecast skill in terms of mean-square error for key variables, outperforming the European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts’ Integrated Forecasting System (IFS) at all lead times. Our findings suggest that effective training strategies, such as multistep fine-tuning and channel-weighted losses, significantly enhance the model’s performance. However, we also highlight that these improvements come with trade-offs in other areas, such as ensemble spread and high-frequency spatial detail. This work highlights the promise of deep learning in improving weather forecasts, which could lead to better preparedness and response to weather events, ultimately benefiting society by providing more reliable weather predictions.
Willard, Jared D. [Lawrence Berkeley National Labo↗
The Impact of Circumsolar Diffuse Radiation on the Numerical Computation and Forecasting of DNI
Weather Research and Forecasting model with solar extensions (WRF-Solar) uses the Fast All-sky Radiation Model for Solar applications (FARMS) to predict solar radiation from the forecasted atmospheric gases, aerosols, and clouds. The Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law utilized by FARMS as well as other radiative transfer models assumes Direct Normal Irradiance (DNI) is a narrow beam only covering the sun disk. This assumption is interpreted differently in solar observations by pyrheliometers where the circumsolar diffuse radiation is accounted. This study precisely computes circumsolar diffuse radiation in all-sky conditions using a radiative transfer model based on a parameterization of precomputed cloud transmittance and reflectance. The model is implemented in WRF-Solar to provide day-ahead DNI forecast in the north America. The computation and forecasting of DNI is compared with the Beer-Bouguer-Lambert law to understand the impact of circumsolar diffuse radiation.
aerosols↗
How Frequent Will the Rarest Daily Rainfall Records of Hurricane Ida’s Remnants Be in the Future?
Abstract Gaining continued insights into the impact of global warming on the occurrence of hurricane-associated intense record downpours is essential for building climate resilient communities. This study investigates projected future changes in extreme rainfall over the Northeast United States, as represented by extreme daily amounts during Hurricane Ida in 2021. We used historical control simulations of Weather Research and Forecasting (WRF) Model generated from 40 years of weather events (1980–2014, 12 km) forced by the fifth generation European Centre for Medium-Range Weather Forecasts atmospheric reanalysis. These simulations are thermodynamically modified (2060–2100) via an imposed warming for the high-emission scenario of shared socioeconomic pathway (SSP585) from a range of general circulation models. Ground observations from the Global Historical Climatology Network (1950–2014) and WRF simulations (historical, 1980–2014, and future, 2060–2100) are integrated into a nonstationary generalized extreme value (GEV) framework to assess the frequency of Ida’s heaviest daily rain rates under the SSP585 scenario. Results show that Ida’s daily maximum rainfall recorded at different observation locations was higher than the single highest September daily maximum observed (1950–2014) for 5 out of 17 stations (∼30% of the stations). Ida-like extreme daily rain rates are projected to be, on average, more than 2 times more likely to occur at the end of the century in the simulations (with some regions as high as 5 times). This work demonstrates that integrating a high-resolution atmospheric model’s present-day and thermodynamically modified future simulations along with ground observations, within a nonstationary statistical framework, is crucial for understanding changing characteristics of extreme weather events. Significance Statement Daily scale extreme precipitation is expected to become more frequent and severe, as evidenced by observations and model simulations. While it is important to investigate how these intensifying heavy rainfall events affect current engineering standards, fewer studies have contextualized how warming impacts the most extreme rainfall from a single storm event relative to historical heavy downpours. In this study, we focused on the daily extreme rainfall associated with the extratropical transition of Hurricane Ida (2021), particularly over the northeastern United States—some of which exceeded the commonly used hydrologic design criteria for a 100-yr storm. Using a high-resolution atmospheric model simulation, we investigated how continued warming may influence the frequency of such daily rain rates. Under a high-emission scenario, these events are projected to become up to 5 times more likely at the end of the twenty-first century.
Dollan, Ishrat J↗
The Impact of Withholding Observations from TOMS or SBUV Instruments on the GEOS Ozone Data Assimilation System
In a data assimilation system (DAS), model forecast atmospheric fields, observations and their respective statistics are combined in an attempt to produce the best estimate of these fields. Ozone observations from two instruments are assimilated in the Goddard Earth Observing System (GEOS) ozone DAS: the Total Ozone Mapping Spectrometer (TOMS) and the Solar Backscatter Ultraviolet (SBUV) instrument. The assimilated observations are complementary; TOMS provides a global daily coverage of total column ozone, without profile information, while SBUV measures ozone profiles and total column ozone at nadir only. The purpose of this paper is to examine the performance of the ozone assimilation system in the absence of observations from one of the instruments as it can happen in the event of a failure of an instrument or when there are problems with an instrument for a limited time. Our primary concern is for the performance of the GEOS ozone DAS when it is used in the operational mode to provide near real time analyzed ozone fields in support of instruments on the Terra satellite. In addition, we are planning to produce a longer term ozone record by assimilating historical data. We want to quantify the differences in the assimilated ozone fields that are caused by the changes in the TOMS or SBUV observing network. Our primary interest is in long term and large scale features visible in global statistics of analysis fields, such as differences in the zonal mean of assimilated ozone fields or comparisons with independent observations, While some drifts in assimilated fields occur immediately, after assimilating just one day of different observations, the others develop slowly over several months. Thus, we are also interested in the length of time, which is determined from time series, that is needed for significant changes to take place.
Stajner, Ovanka↗
Remote Sensing of Snow Cover: Snow Extent - Section
Snow was easily identified in the first image obtained from the Television Infrared Operational Satellite-1 (TIROS-1) weather satellite in 1960 because the high albedo of snow presents a good contrast with most other natural surfaces. Subsequently, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) began to map snow using satellite-borne instruments in 1966. Snow plays an important role in the Earth s energy balance, causing more solar radiation to be reflected back into space as compared to most snow-free surfaces. Seasonal snow cover also provides a critical water resource through meltwater emanating from rivers that originate from high-mountain areas such as the Tibetan Plateau. Meltwater from mountain snow packs flows to some of the world s most densely-populated areas such as Southeast Asia, benefiting over 1 billion people (Immerzeel et al., 2010). In this section, we provide a brief overview of the remote sensing of snow cover using visible and near-infrared (VNIR) and passive-microwave (PM) data. Snow can be mapped using the microwave part of the electromagnetic spectrum, even in darkness and through cloud cover, but at a coarser spatial resolution than when using VNIR data. Fusing VNIR and PM algorithms to produce a blended product offers synergistic benefits. Snow-water equivalent (SWE), snow extent, and melt onset are important parameters for climate models and for the initialization of atmospheric forecasts at daily and seasonal time scales. Snowmelt data are also needed as input to hydrological models to improve flood control and irrigation management.
Hall, Dorothy K.↗
Multi-sensor Cloud Retrieval Simulator and Remote Sensing from Model Parameters : Synthetic Sensor Radiance Formulation - Pt. 1
In this paper we describe a general procedure for calculating synthetic sensor radiances from variable output from a global atmospheric forecast model. In order to take proper account of the discrepancies between model resolution and sensor footprint, the algorithm takes explicit account of the model subgrid variability, in particular its description of the probability density function of total water (vapor and cloud condensate.) The simulated sensor radiances are then substituted into an operational remote sensing algorithm processing chain to produce a variety of remote sensing products that would normally be produced from actual sensor output. This output can then be used for a wide variety of purposes such as model parameter verification, remote sensing algorithm validation, testing of new retrieval methods and future sensor studies.We show a specific implementation using the GEOS-5 model, the MODIS instrument and the MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) Data Collection 5.1 operational remote sensing cloud algorithm processing chain (including the cloud mask, cloud top properties and cloud optical and microphysical properties products). We focus on clouds because they are very important to model development and improvement.
Simulations↗
Equivalent Sensor Radiance Generation and Remote Sensing from Model Parameters: Equivalent Sensor Radiance Formulation - Part 1
In this paper we describe a general procedure for calculating equivalent sensor radiances from variables output from a global atmospheric forecast model. In order to take proper account of the discrepancies between model resolution and sensor footprint the algorithm takes explicit account of the model subgrid variability, in particular its description of the probably density function of total water (vapor and cloud condensate.) The equivalent sensor radiances are then substituted into an operational remote sensing algorithm processing chain to produce a variety of remote sensing products that would normally be produced from actual sensor output. This output can then be used for a wide variety of purposes such as model parameter verification, remote sensing algorithm validation, testing of new retrieval methods and future sensor studies. We show a specific implementation using the GEOS-5 model, the MODIS instrument and the MODIS Adaptive Processing System (MODAPS) Data Collection 5.1 operational remote sensing cloud algorithm processing chain (including the cloud mask, cloud top properties and cloud optical and microphysical properties products.) We focus on clouds and cloud/aerosol interactions, because they are very important to model development and improvement.
Simulations↗