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Results for “Combined Uncertainty”

Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2025

Pervaporative Dehydration of 2,3-Butanediol by Dense Poly(vinylidene fluoride) Hollow Fiber Membranes: Parameter Estimation, Process Design, and Technoeconomic Evaluation under Uncertainty

Pervaporation, combined with other separation processes, can effectively remove water from fermentation product streams, making it highly suitable for purifying alcohols like 2,3-butanediol (BDO). In this study, a dense poly(vinylidene fluoride) (PVDF) hollow fiber membrane module prototype was fabricated for BDO dehydration, achieving >0.2 LMH total flux and >95% BDO rejection. With a Markov chain Monte Carlo (MCMC) approach, Bayesian inference was used to quantify the uncertainty of the permeance parameters. A membrane cascade model was developed to scale up a process that purifies a preconcentrated BDO feed (70 wt %) to high purity (90 wt %). Through propagation of the uncertainty of the parameters and sensitivity analyses of the process variables, a cascade design was recommended. Despite data and model limitations, the framework enabled a reliable system analysis and economic evaluation, validated through tight confidence intervals in key process metrics, establishing the foundation for future applications of Bayesian methods in membrane-based processes.

Animal feed↗
DOE OSTI2024

Executive summary of error sources in dynamic surface temperature measurements

Obtaining bulk T requires measuring apparent sample interface T surface , knowledge of any window conditions T window , and knowledge of thermal transport from the sample to the window. To obtain bulk T with uncertainties below 5% requires relatively small uncertainties in each of these areas, and large uncertainties in one area require smaller uncertainties in others to maintain the error budget. For example, if T window is known to 10%, a 5% total uncertainty can be obtained if T surface is known to 1% and combined transport uncertainties are known to 20%. If T surface can only be measured to 2%, combined transport uncertainties must be 17% to reach the same overall uncertainty. As the form of transport is unknown at high pressure, and window temperatures are difficult to measure by their very nature, reducing surface T uncertainties is the practical first step. Here we will discuss various error sources in the measurement of apparent T surface , and which ones must be correctly obtained prior to the experiment.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗
DOE OSTI2025

Combined Meteorological and Hydrologic Uncertainties Shape Projections of Future Soil Moisture in the Eastern United States

Physical hazards pose risks to many critical systems. Designing adaptive measures to mitigate these risks is challenging due to large uncertainties in modeling future hazards and the associated sectoral responses. Here, we help address this challenge in a hydrologic context by examining the combined role of meteorological forcing and hydrologic parameter uncertainties in shaping projections of future soil moisture. By encoding a simple conceptual water balance model in a differentiable programming framework, we facilitate fast runtimes and an efficient calibration, enabling an improved uncertainty analysis. We characterize uncertainty in model parameters by calibrating against different target data sets and by using several loss functions. We then convolve the resulting parameter ensemble with a set of Earth system model projections to produce a large ensemble (2,340 members) of daily soil moisture simulations. Focusing on the eastern United States, we find that most ensemble members project a drying of soils across the region, although some simulate wetter conditions throughout this century. Our ensemble shows an increase in the frequency and intensity of dry extremes while there is less agreement for wet extremes. We conduct sensitivity analyses on several soil moisture signatures to measure the relative influence of meteorological and hydrologic uncertainties across space and time. Both meteorological and hydrologic factors contribute consistently to uncertainty surrounding long-term trends, while changes to both wet and dry soil extremes are typically more sensitive to hydrologic parameter uncertainty. Our results underscore the need to account for varied sources of uncertainty when developing long-term hydrometeorological projections.

Lafferty, David C. [University of Illinois Urbana‐↗
DOE OSTI2023

Combined Data and Deep Learning Model Uncertainties: An Application to the Measurement of Solid Fuel Regression Rate

In complex physical process characterization, such as the measurement of the regression rate for solid hybrid rocket fuels, where both the observation data and the model used have uncertainties originating from multiple sources, combining these in a systematic way for quantities of interest (QoI) remains a challenge. In this paper, we present a forward propagation uncertainty quantification (UQ) process to produce a probabilistic distribution for the observed regression rate r. We characterized two input data uncertainty sources from the experiment (the distortion from the camera U c and the non-zero-angle fuel placement U Y ), the prediction and model form uncertainty from the deep neural network (U m ), as well as the variability from the manually segmented images used for training it (U s ). Here, we conducted seven case studies on combinations of these uncertainty sources with the model form uncertainty. The main contribution of this paper is the investigation and inclusion of the experimental image data uncertainties involved, and how to include them in a workflow when the QoI is the result of multiple sequential processes.

42 ENGINEERING↗
DOE OSTI2025

Advancements and opportunities to improve bottom–up estimates of global wetland methane emissions

Wetlands are the single largest natural source of atmospheric methane (CH 4 ), contributing approximately 30% of total surface CH 4 emissions, and they have been identified as the largest source of uncertainty in the global CH 4 budget based on the most recent Global Carbon Project CH 4 report. High uncertainties in the bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions pose significant challenges for accurately understanding their spatiotemporal variations, and for the scientific community to monitor wetland CH 4 emissions from space. In fact, there are large disagreements between bottom–up estimates versus top–down estimates inferred from inversion of atmospheric CH 4 concentrations. To address these critical gaps, we review recent development, validation, and applications of bottom–up estimates of global wetland CH 4 emissions, as well as how they are used in top–down inversions. These bottom–up estimates, using (1) empirical biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WetCHARTs: 125–208 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); (2) process-based biogeochemical modeling (e.g. WETCHIMP: 190 ± 39 TgCH 4 yr -1 ); and (3) data-driven machine learning approach (e.g. UpCH4: 146 ± 43 TgCH 4 yr -1 ). Bottom–up estimates are subject to significant uncertainties (~80 Tg CH 4 yr -1 ), and the ranges of different estimates do not overlap, further amplifying the overall uncertainty when combining multiple data products. These substantial uncertainties highlight gaps in our understanding of wetland CH 4 biogeochemistry and wetland inundation dynamics. Major tropical and arctic wetland complexes are regional hotspots of CH 4 emissions. However, the scarcity of satellite data over the tropics and northern high latitudes offer limited information for top–down inversions to improve bottom–up estimates. Recent advances in surface measurements of CH 4 fluxes (e.g. FLUXNET-CH 4 ) across a wide range of ecosystems including bogs, fens, marshes, and forest swamps provide an unprecedented opportunity to improve existing bottom–up estimates of wetland CH 4 estimates. We suggest that continuous long-term surface measurements at representative wetlands, high fidelity wetland mapping, combined with an appropriate modeling framework, will be needed to significantly improve global estimates of wetland CH 4 emissions. There is also a pressing unmet need for fine-resolution and high-precision satellite CH 4 observations directed at wetlands.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Understanding the Accuracy Limitations of Quantifying Methane Emissions Using Other Test Method 33A

Researchers have utilized Other Test Method (OTM) 33A to quantify methane emissions from natural gas infrastructure. Historically, errors have been reported based on a population of measurements compared to known controlled releases of methane. These errors have been reported as 2σ errors of ±70%. However, little research has been performed on the minimum attainable uncertainty of any one measurement. We present two methods of uncertainty estimation. The first was the measurement uncertainty of the state-of-the-art equipment, which was determined to be ±3.8% of the estimate. This was determined from bootstrapped measurements compared to controlled releases. The second approach of uncertainty estimation was a modified Hollinger and Richardson (H&R) method which was developed for quantifying the uncertainty of eddy covariance measurements. Using a modified version of this method applied to OTM 33A measurements, it was determined that uncertainty of any given measurement was ±17%. Combining measurement uncertainty with that of stochasticity produced a total minimum uncertainty of 17.4%. Due to the current nature of stationary single-sensor measurements and the stochasticity of atmospheric data, such uncertainties will always be present. This is critical in understanding the transport of methane emissions and indirect measurements obtained from the natural gas industry.

Heltzel, Robert↗
DOE OSTI2026

Quantifying Uncertainties in Heat Capacity Measurements of Molten Salts Determined Using Differential Scanning Calorimetry

Uncertainty in specific heat capacity values of a molten salt determined by using differential scanning calorimetry (DSC) was assessed based on the precision of replicate measurements of heat flows used in the calculation and effects of corrections that are commonly made to heat flow measurements. The ratio method of determining heat capacity was applied using the results of replicate heat flow measurements made with two empty cells, a sapphire reference material, and three samples of a doped NaCl-UCl 3 salt mixture. Replicate measurements with empty cells were used to quantify the effects of system instabilities and sensitivities on the measured heat flows of sapphire and salt. The combined effects of uncertainties in individual heat flow measurements made with blank cells using this system were quantified to be 2.6 μV based on isothermal holds before and after the scan, with cell placement adding the greatest uncertainty. This value was used as the tolerance for accepting background-corrected heat flows measured with sapphire and salt to calculate the specific heat capacity. The acceptable heat flows measured for sapphire and salt over the temperature range of 540 to 725 °C resulted in calculated specific heat capacity values ranging from 0.53 to 0.91 J g −1 K −1 with an overall average value of 0.70 J g −1 K −1 and an uncertainty of 0.22 J g −1 K −1 at the 99 % confidence level. The combined uncertainty in the specific heat capacity masked detection of any effect of temperature or salt composition that occurred.

11 NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗
DOE OSTI2026

Statistical inference of anomalous thermal transport with uncertainty quantification for interpretive 2D SOL models

The critical task of inferring anomalous cross-field transport coefficients is addressed in simulations of boundary plasmas with fluid models. A workflow for parameter inference in the UEDGE fluid code is developed using Bayesian optimization with parallelized sampling and integrated uncertainty quantification. In this workflow, transport coefficients are inferred by maximizing their posterior probability distribution, which is generally multidimensional and non-Gaussian. Uncertainty quantification is integrated throughout the optimization within the Bayesian framework that combines diagnostic uncertainties and model limitations. As a concrete example, we infer the anomalous electron thermal diffusivity $\chi_\perp$ from an interpretive 2D model describing electron heat transport in the conduction-limited region with radiative power loss. The workflow is first benchmarked against synthetic data and then tested on H-, L-, and I-mode discharges to match their midplane temperature and divertor heat flux profiles. We demonstrate that the workflow efficiently infers diffusivity and its associated uncertainty, generating 2D profiles that match 1D measurements. Future efforts will focus on incorporating more complicated fluid models and analyzing transport coefficients inferred from a large database of experimental results.

Bayesian optimization↗
DOE OSTI2023

Analysis of Uncertainty Impacts on Emissions and Fuel Economy Evaluation for Chassis Dynamometer Testing

This study illustrates a methodology for quantifying the uncertainties encountered in the measurement of tailpipe emissions and in the fuel consumption measurements for light-duty conventional vehicles tested on a four-wheel drive chassis dynamometer. The study leverages high-fidelity experimental data collected over three standard drive cycles, UDDS, HWY and US06, intended to simulate a wide range of operating conditions. Here, a method is developed to estimate the measurement uncertainties in fuel consumption for a test cycle, which occur due to the accumulation of measurement uncertainties propagated through the system. The uncertainty determination model uses statistical analysis and standard propagation techniques to evaluate and combine the uncertainties introduced from various sources (including the vehicle, chassis dynamometer, driver, and instrumentation). The analysis also examines three different experimental methods for determining the fuel consumption: 1) carbon mass balance, 2) volumetric fuel scale and 3) gravimetric fuel scale, and takes into consideration the properties of the instrumentation used. The results show that the most significant influence on the determination of the emissions comes from the concentration measurement, and similarly the biggest impact on the total fuel consumption uncertainty comes from the uncertainty in the determination of the carbon dioxide mass, due to the large presence of this pollutant in the overall emissions. It was found that the fuel consumption uncertainties are in the range of ±1-2% for all three methods analyzed, with the lowest values being obtained for measurements performed using the gravimetric method for all three drive cycles considered.

33 ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Scalable statistical inference of photometric redshift via data subsampling

Handling big data has largely been a major bottleneck in traditional statistical models. Consequently, when accurate point prediction is the primary target, machine learning models are often preferred over their statistical counterparts for bigger problems. But full probabilistic statistical models often outperform other models in quantifying uncertainties associated with model predictions. We develop a data-driven statistical modeling framework that combines the uncertainties from an ensemble of statistical models learned on smaller subsets of data carefully chosen to account for imbalances in the input space. We demonstrate this method on a photometric redshift estimation problem in cosmology, which seeks to infer a distribution of the redshift—the stretching effect in observing the light of far-away galaxies—given multivariate color information observed for an object in the sky. Our proposed method performs balanced partitioning, graph-based data subsampling across the partitions, and training of an ensemble of Gaussian process models.

data subsampling↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning with Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2026

Advanced Semi-Supervised Learning With Uncertainty Estimation for Phase Identification in Distribution Systems

The integration of advanced metering infrastructure (AMI) into power distribution networks generates valuable data for tasks such as phase identification; however, the limited and unreliable availability of labeled data in the form of customer phase connectivity presents challenges. To address this issue, we propose a semi-supervised learning (SSL) framework that effectively leverages labeled and unlabeled data. Our approach incorporates self-training, label spreading, and Bayesian neural networks (BNNs) to enhance phase identification with AMI data. Our method uses an ensemble of multilayer perceptron classifiers in a self-training setup, iteratively adding high-confidence pseudo-labels to improve robustness. We also apply label spread to propagate labels based on data similarity, which enhances generalization across diverse distributions. In addition, we employ a BNNs with uncertainty estimation, boosting confidence in predictions and reducing phase identification errors. In our case study, we achieved approximately 98% +/- 0.08 accuracy with uncertainty using minimal and unreliable labeled data from a real U.S. utility, Duquesne Light Company. Our SSL approach, combined with uncertainty estimation, provides an efficient solution for phase identification in AMI data, ultimately improving the reliability of smart grid applications.

24 POWER TRANSMISSION AND DISTRIBUTION↗
DOE OSTI2024

Examining the self-interaction of dark matter through central cluster galaxy offsets

ABSTRACT While collisionless cold dark matter models have been largely successful in explaining a wide range of observational data, some tensions still exist, and it remains possible that dark matter possesses a non-negligible level of self-interactions. In this paper, we investigate a possible observable consequence of self-interacting dark matter: offsets between the central galaxy and the centre of mass of its parent halo. We examine 23 relaxed galaxy clusters in a redshift range of 0.1–0.3 drawn from clusters in the Dark Energy Survey and the Sloan Digital Sky Survey which have archival Chandra X-ray data of sufficient depth for centre and relaxation determination. We find that most clusters in our sample show non-zero offsets between the X-ray centre, taken to be the centroid within the cluster core, and the central galaxy position. All of the measured offsets are larger, typically by an order of magnitude, than the uncertainty in the X-ray position due to Poisson noise. In all but six clusters, the measured offsets are also larger than the estimated, combined astrometric uncertainties in the X-ray and optical positions. A more conservative cut on concentration to select relaxed clusters marginally reduces but does not eliminate the observed offset. With our more conservative sample, we find an estimated median X-ray to central galaxy offset of $\mu = 6.0 ^{+ 1.4}_{- 1.5}$ kpc. Comparing to recent simulations, this distribution of offsets is consistent with some level of dark matter self-interaction, though further simulation work is needed to place constraints.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2020

Precision measurement of the neutral pion lifetime

The explicit breaking of the axial symmetry by quantum fluctuations gives rise to the so-called axial anomaly. This phenomenon is solely responsible for the decay of the neutral pion π0 into two photons (γγ), leading to its unusually short lifetime. Here, we precisely measured the decay width Γ of the π 0 → γγ process. The differential cross sections for π0 photoproduction at forward angles were measured on two targets, carbon-12 and silicon-28, yielding Γ(π 0 → γγ)=7.798±0.056(stat.)±0.109(syst.) eV, where stat. denotes the statistical uncertainty and syst. the systematic uncertainty. We combined the results of this and an earlier experiment to generate a weighted average of Γ(π 0 → γγ)=7.802±0.052(stat.)±0.105(syst.) eV. Our final result has a total uncertainty of 1.50% and confirms the prediction based on the chiral anomaly in quantum chromodynamics.

71 CLASSICAL AND QUANTUM MECHANICS, GENERAL PHYSIC↗
DOE OSTI2024

Methods for Incorporating Model Uncertainty into Exoplanet Atmospheric Analysis

A key goal of exoplanet spectroscopy is to measure atmospheric properties, such as abundances of chemical species, in order to connect them to our understanding of atmospheric physics and planet formation. In this new era of high-quality JWST data, it is paramount that these measurement methods are robust. When comparing atmospheric models to observations, multiple candidate models may produce reasonable fits to the data. Typically, conclusions are reached by selecting the best-performing model according to some metric. This ignores model uncertainty in favor of specific model assumptions, potentially leading to measured atmospheric properties that are overconfident and/or incorrect. In this paper, we compare three ensemble methods for addressing model uncertainty by combining posterior distributions from multiple analyses: Bayesian model averaging, a variant of Bayesian model averaging using leave-one-out predictive densities, and stacking of predictive distributions. We demonstrate these methods by fitting the Hubble Space Telescope (HST) + Spitzer transmission spectrum of the hot Jupiter HD 209458b using models with different cloud and haze prescriptions. All of our ensemble methods lead to uncertainties on retrieved parameters that are larger but more realistic and consistent with physical and chemical expectations. Since they have not typically accounted for model uncertainty, uncertainties of retrieved parameters from HST spectra have likely been underreported. We recommend stacking as the most robust model combination method. Our methods can be used to combine results from independent retrieval codes and from different models within one code. They are also widely applicable to other exoplanet analysis processes, such as combining results from different data reductions.

79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2023

Uncertainties in ab initio nuclear structure calculations with chiral interactions

We present theoretical ground state energies and their uncertainties for p -shell nuclei obtained from chiral effective field theory internucleon interactions as a function of chiral order, fitted to two- and three-body data only. We apply a Similary Renormalization Group transformation to improve the numerical convergence of the many-body calculations, and discuss both the numerical uncertainties arising from basis truncations and those from omitted induced many-body forces, as well as chiral truncation uncertainties. With complete Next-to-Next-to-Leading (N 2 LO) order two- and three-body interactions, we find significant overbinding for the ground states in the upper p -shell, but using higher-order two-body potentials, in combination with N 2 LO three-body forces, our predictions agree with experiment throughout the p -shell to within our combined estimated uncertainties. The uncertainties due to chiral order truncation are noticeably larger than the numerical uncertainties, but they are expected to become comparable to the numerical uncertainties at complete N 3 LO.

73 NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
DOE OSTI2021

Carbonyl Identification and Quantification Uncertainties for Oxidative Polymer Degradation

The most revealing indicator for oxidative processes or state of degraded plastics is usually carbonyl formation, a key step in materials degradation as part of the carbon cycle for man-made materials. Hence, the identification and quantification of carbonyl species with infrared spectroscopy have been the method of choice for generations, thanks to their strong absorbance and being an essential intermediate in carbon oxidation pathways. Despite their importance, precise identification and quantification can be challenging and rigorous fully traceable data are surprisingly rare in the existing literature. An overview of the complexity of carbonyl quantification is presented by the screening of reference compounds in solution with transmission and polymer films with ATR IR spectroscopy, and systematic data analyses. Significant variances in existing data and their past use have been recognized. Guidance is offered how better measurements and data reporting could be accomplished. Experimental variances depend on the combination of uncertainty in exact carbonyl species, extinction coefficient, contributions from neighboring convoluting peaks, matrix interaction phenomena and instrumental variations in primary IR spectral acquisition (refractive index and penetration depth for ATR measurements). In addition, diverging sources for relevant extinction coefficients may exist, based on original spectral acquisition. For common polymer degradation challenges, a relative comparison of carbonyl yields for a material is easily accessible, but quantification for other purposes, such as degradation rates and spatially dependent interpretation, requires thorough experimental validation. All variables featured in this overview demonstrate the significant error margins in carbonyl quantification, with exact carbonyl species and extinction coefficients already being major contributors on their own.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗