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DOE OSTI2022

Medium- and heavy-duty value of technology improvement

Improvements in vehicle technology impact the purchase price of a vehicle and its operating cost. In this study, the monetary benefit of a technology improvement includes the potential reduction in vehicle price from using cheaper or smaller components, as well as the discounted value of the fuel cost savings. As technology progresses over time, the value and benefit of improving technology varies as well. In this study, the value of improving a few selected technologies (battery energy density, electric drive efficiency, tire rolling resistance, aerodynamics, light weighting) is studied and the value of the associated cost saving is quantified. The change in saving as a function of time, powertrain selection and vehicle type is also quantified. For example, a 10% reduction in aerodynamic losses is worth $24,222 today but only $8,810 in 2030 in an electric long haul truck. The decrease in value is primarily due to expected battery cost reduction over time. The same loss reduction in a 2030 conventional long haul truck is worth $5,117 and is primarily driven by a reduction in diesel expenditure. For conventional vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to increase over time as diesel price is expected to increase over the next decades while for electric vehicles, the value of technology improvement is likely to decrease as battery energy density increases and cost decreases. The study focuses on medium- and heavy-duty applications where cost of driving is of paramount importance. The savings realized from each technology improvement serve as an upper limit for how much can be spent to acquire that improvement in technology.

Freyermuth, Vincent↗

NASA NTRS1972

Design of vortex fluid amplifiers with asymmetrical flow fields.

Variation of geometric parameters, including supply area, control area, chamber length, and outlet diameter, of a large scale, modular design vortex fluid amplifier with single supply and control jets, has confirmed and extended a previously published design method, developed for vortex amplifiers with symmetric flow fields. This allows application of the method to devices which are more representative of practical, production type components.

Lawley, T. J.↗

NASA NTRS1984

Partial Reflection D-region Electron Densities

The differential absorption technique of measuring electron densities as a function of height in the D region is discussed. In the basic experiment, pulses of medium or high frequency, usually at a fixed frequency (2 to MHz), are radiated upwards with known wave polarizatin (usually linear or circular) from a transmitter at ground level. Partial reflections, from ionospheric scatterers at heights below the E region, are received at the ground, and are resolved into two characteristic components, the ordinary (0) and extraordinary (E) modes whose amplitude ration A(x)/A(o) is then measured as a function of height, h. The heights of these are determined by delay times, the group retardation being minimal in the undisturbed D-region. The electronic system can be very simple. Power splitters and quadrature networks to separate the A(x) and A(o) components are commercially available at low prices and an A-D converter, height-gate system, and microcomputer allows the real-time calculation of mean amplitudes. The ratio of the coefficients of reflection of the two modes, as they originate at each reflection height is then calculable.

Manson, A. H.↗

NASA NTRS1991

A taxonomy for the evolution of human settlements on the moon and Mars

A proposed structure is described for partnerships with shared interests and investments to develop the technology and approach for evolutionary surface systems for the moon and Mars. Five models are presented for cooperation with specific references to the technical evolutionary path of the surface systems. The models encompass the standard customer/provider relationship, a concept for exclusive government use, a joint venture with a government-sponsored non-SEI market, a technology joint-development approach, and a redundancy model to insure competitive pricing. The models emphasize the nonaerospace components of the settlement technologies and the decentralized nature of surface systems that make the project suitable for private industrial development by several companies. It is concluded that the taxonomy be considered when examining collaborative opportunities for lunar and Martian settlement.

Roberts, Barney B.↗

NASA NTRS2004

Multi-Agent Methods for the Configuration of Random Nanocomputers

As computational devices continue to shrink, the cost of manufacturing such devices is expected to grow exponentially. One alternative to the costly, detailed design and assembly of conventional computers is to place the nano-electronic components randomly on a chip. The price for such a trivial assembly process is that the resulting chip would not be programmable by conventional means. In this work, we show that such random nanocomputers can be adaptively programmed using multi-agent methods. This is accomplished through the optimization of an associated high dimensional error function. By representing each of the independent variables as a reinforcement learning agent, we are able to achieve convergence must faster than with other methods, including simulated annealing. Standard combinational logic circuits such as adders and multipliers are implemented in a straightforward manner. In addition, we show that the intrinsic flexibility of these adaptive methods allows the random computers to be reconfigured easily, making them reusable. Recovery from faults is also demonstrated.

Lawson, John W.↗

DOE OSTI2021

2019 Energy Storage Pricing Survey

Since grid energy storage is still evolving rapidly, it is often difficult to obtain project specific capital costs for various energy storage technologies. This information is necessary to evaluate the profitability of the facility, as well as comparing different energy storage technology options. The goal of this report is to summarize energy storage capital costs that were obtained from industry pricing surveys. The methodology breaks down the cost of an energy storage system into the following component categories: the storage module; the balance of system; the power conversion system; the energy management system; and the engineering, procurement, and construction costs. By evaluating each of the different component costs separately, a synthetic system cost can be developed that provides internal pricing consistency between different project sizes using the same technology, as well as between different technologies that utilize similar components.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗

NASA NTRS2010

Hidden Statistics Approach to Quantum Simulations

Recent advances in quantum information theory have inspired an explosion of interest in new quantum algorithms for solving hard computational (quantum and non-quantum) problems. The basic principle of quantum computation is that the quantum properties can be used to represent structure data, and that quantum mechanisms can be devised and built to perform operations with this data. Three basic non-classical properties of quantum mechanics superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability were main reasons for optimism about capabilities of quantum computers that promised simultaneous processing of large massifs of highly correlated data. Unfortunately, these advantages of quantum mechanics came with a high price. One major problem is keeping the components of the computer in a coherent state, as the slightest interaction with the external world would cause the system to decohere. That is why the hardware implementation of a quantum computer is still unsolved. The basic idea of this work is to create a new kind of dynamical system that would preserve the main three properties of quantum physics superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. In other words, such a system would reinforce the advantages and minimize limitations of both quantum and classical aspects. Based upon a concept of hidden statistics, a new kind of dynamical system for simulation of Schroedinger equation is proposed. The system represents a modified Madelung version of Schroedinger equation. It preserves superposition, entanglement, and direct-product decomposability while allowing one to measure its state variables using classical methods. Such an optimal combination of characteristics is a perfect match for simulating quantum systems. The model includes a transitional component of quantum potential (that has been overlooked in previous treatment of the Madelung equation). The role of the transitional potential is to provide a jump from a deterministic state to a random state with prescribed probability density. This jump is triggered by blowup instability due to violation of Lipschitz condition generated by the quantum potential. As a result, the dynamics attains quantum properties on a classical scale. The model can be implemented physically as an analog VLSI-based (very-large-scale integration-based) computer, or numerically on a digital computer. This work opens a way of developing fundamentally new algorithms for quantum simulations of exponentially complex problems that expand NASA capabilities in conducting space activities. It has been illustrated that the complexity of simulations of particle interaction can be reduced from an exponential one to a polynomial one.

Zak, Michail↗

DOE OSTI2021

Data-Driven Probabilistic Anomaly Detection for Electricity Market under Cyber Attacks

Information and communication technologies have been widely used in smart grid for efficient operation. However, these technologies are vulnerable to malicious cyber attacks, which may lead to severe reliability and economic issues. Recently, a variety of data-driven anomaly detection approaches have been explored to detect potential cyber attacks in smart grids. In this paper, we researched on the electricity market data aiming to identify anomalies from the locational marginal prices (LMPs) and provide a new indicator for potential cyber attacks in power grids. Specifically, a novel data-driven probabilistic anomaly detection framework is proposed for electricity market, which consists of three major components: long short-term memory (LSTM) based deterministic electricity price forecasting, probabilistic electricity price forecasting and anomaly detection. This framework is tested on a model-based electricity market simulator under two types of cyber attacks, i.e., load redistribution attack (LRA) and price responsive attack (PRA). Numerical results on the simulated LMPs show that the proposed framework is capable of detecting data anomalies over these attacks.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2025

Proton Exchange Membrane (PEM) Water Electrolysis: Cell-Level Considerations for Gigawatt-Scale Deployment

Hydrogen produced with no greenhouse gas emissions is termed “green hydrogen” and will be essential to reaching decarbonization targets set forth by nearly every country as per the Paris Agreement. Proton exchange membrane water electrolyzers (PEMWEs) are expected to contribute substantially to the green hydrogen market. However, PEMWE market penetration is insignificant, accounting for less than a gigawatt of global capacity. Achieving substantive decarbonization via green hydrogen will require PEMWEs to reach capacities of hundreds of gigawatts by 2030. This paper serves as an overarching roadmap for cell-level improvements necessary for gigawatt-scale PEMWE deployment, with insights from three well-established hydrogen technology companies included. Analyses will be presented for economies of scale, renewable energy prices, government policies, accelerated stress tests, and component-specific improvements.

37 INORGANIC, ORGANIC, PHYSICAL, AND ANALYTICAL CH↗

NASA NTRS1991

Data simulation for the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS)

This project aims to build a data analysis system that will utilize existing video tape scenes of lightning as viewed from space. The resultant data will be used for the design and development of the Lightning Imaging Sensor (LIS) software and algorithm analysis. The desire for statistically significant metrics implies that a large data set needs to be analyzed. Before 1990 the quality and quantity of video was insufficient to build a usable data set. At this point in time, there is usable data from missions STS-34, STS-32, STS-31, STS-41, STS-37, and STS-39. During the summer of 1990, a manual analysis system was developed to demonstrate that the video analysis is feasible and to identify techniques to deduce information that was not directly available. Because the closed circuit television system used on the space shuttle was intended for documentary TV, the current value of the camera focal length and pointing orientation, which are needed for photoanalysis, are not included in the system data. A large effort was needed to discover ancillary data sources as well as develop indirect methods to estimate the necessary parameters. Any data system coping with full motion video faces an enormous bottleneck produced by the large data production rate and the need to move and store the digitized images. The manual system bypassed the video digitizing bottleneck by using a genlock to superimpose pixel coordinates on full motion video. Because the data set had to be obtained point by point by a human operating a computer mouse, the data output rate was small. The loan and subsequent acquisition of a Abekas digital frame store with a real time digitizer moved the bottleneck from data acquisition to a problem of data transfer and storage. The semi-automated analysis procedure was developed using existing equipment and is described. A fully automated system is described in the hope that the components may come on the market at reasonable prices in the next few years.

Boeck, William L.↗

NASA NTRS1991

The ELLIPSO (tm) system: Elliptical low orbits for mobile communications and other optimum system elements

On 5 Nov. 1990, Ellipsat filed with the FCC the first application to provide voice communication services via low earth orbiting (LEO) satellites. The proposed system, ELLIPSO, aims at achieving end-user costs comparable to those in the cellular industry. On 3 Jun. 1991 Ellipsat filed for the second complement of its system. Ellipsat was also the first company to propose combined position determination and mobile voice services via low-earth orbiting satellites. Ellipsat is still the only proponent of elliptical orbits for any commercial system in the United States. ELLIPSO uses a spectrum efficient combination of FDMA and CDMA techniques. Ellipsat's strategy is to tailor required capacity to user demand, reduce initial system costs and investment risks, and allow the provision of services at affordable end-user prices. ELLIPSO offers optimum features in all the components of its system, elliptical orbits, small satellites, integrated protocol and signalling system, integrated end-user electronics, novel marketing approach based on the cooperation with the tenets of mobile communications, end-user costs that are affordable, and a low risk approach as deployment is tailored to the growth of its customer base. The efficient design of the ELLIPSO constellation and system allows estimated end-user costs in the $.50 per minute range, five to six times less than any other system of comparable capability.

Castiel, David↗

NASA NTRS1991

Improved Force-And-Torque Sensor Assembly

Improved sensor assembly measures forces and torques of interaction between supporting and supported object. Measures all three components of force and all three components of torque. Force measurements uncoupled from torque measurements. Price for improved measurement capability, complexity and flexibility, excessive in some applications.

Bamford, Robert M.↗

DOE OSTI2023

2022 Component Innovation Awardee: Carter Wind Turbines

Carter Wind Turbines will develop a competitively priced, portable, ultra-lightweight, self-erecting turbine that will expand the viability of wind energy systems for commercial and residential customers in areas far from population centers. The new turbine is a taller version of the Carter Model 300, which was developed with funding from previous Competitiveness Improvement Project (CIP) awards. Compared to conventional turbines, the new assembly is cheaper to ship, can be erected in one day without any cranes or heavy excavation equipment, and is compatible with the wide range of grid configurations and site conditions found in remote areas.

CIP↗

NASA NTRS1986

The TFP and a pulsed LD: New lidar components

One of the large problems of lidar in practical use is that the price and the weight of a laser and a receiving telescope is too high. To solve this problem, many trials have been made. The system with the TFP (thin film paraboloid) for a receiving telescope and a pulsed LD (laser diode) for a laser source is proposed. It is hoped that as a consequece the lidar system will become very lightweigth and inexpensive.

Shimizu, H.↗

NASA NTRS1982

Intermediate power conditioners - Where are we now?

It has been recognized in the photovoltaic (PV) industry that even in the event of a dramatic reduction in the price of generating PV cells, the costs for the other components of the system represent still a major obstacle towards commercialization. A project was, therefore, initiated with the aim to develop baseline and conceptual power conditioner designs which would attempt to meet a specified set of cost and performance goals in the 30 to 200 kW (Intermediate) size. Resulting Intermediate Size Power Conditioner Studies led to a number of conclusions. There is a need for a set of guidelines or standards for utility interconnection. The advent of new devices with more power handling capability will change the desired topology.

Klein, J. W.↗

DOE OSTI2026

California Price Response Potential Study

California's energy landscape is undergoing a significant transformation, driven by the increasing integration of renewable energy sources, the increased adoption of distributed energy resources, the electrification of end-use loads, and the growing need for grid efficiency. To address these challenges, recent revisions to the State’s Load Management Standards (LMS) require all of California’s large utilities and community choice aggregators (CCAs) to offer dynamic electricity pricing options to customers by 2027. Dynamic pricing, which involves varying electricity rates based on real-time supply and demand conditions, offers a promising solution for optimizing grid operations, reducing costs, and incentivizing efficient use of grid capacity. Effective implementation of dynamic pricing requires understanding the potential impacts on customer bills, system load, and the cost-effectiveness of automation technologies. This study aims to evaluate the load response of various end-use devices to hourly dynamic prices. The end-uses studied here are space cooling, space heating, water heating, crop irrigation, pool and spa pumps, and electric vehicle (EV) charging, all for both residential and commercial applications, except for crop irrigation. In 2030, these end uses are forecasted to account for 18% of annual electricity demand in the state, but 40% of demand in the peak net load hour. By modeling possible price-responsive load dispatch algorithms and assessing the resulting impacts on both individual bills and the overall grid, we seek to inform policymakers and utilities about the potential benefits and challenges associated with dynamic pricing, and considerations for the design of dynamic pricing tariffs. Additionally, we will explore the cost effectiveness of adopting automation technologies to enable devices to respond more effectively to real-time price signals. This study considers a range of price profiles, accounting for differences across utilities and customer classes, and presents scenarios for dynamic price design via variation in the percentage of total customer electric costs that are allocated dynamically (versus constituting a fixed portion of the hourly volumetric price). We present results focused primarily on 2030, forecasting electricity prices under both low and high-cost scenarios, to inform longer-term tariff design considerations. We design tariffs by starting with 2019 prices that were calculated according to CalFUSE guidance (CPUC, 2022) and that have been used in recent studies; these prices are all-in volumetric rates that vary by utility and are revenue-neutral to each customer class. They are developed by considering six electricity cost components that are allocated hourly based on system load indicators (gross and net load, and wholesale prices). These prices are forecasted to 2030 for low and high cost scenarios, considering recent trends in total electricity costs with and without years of substantial wildfire mitigation investments. These tariffs, which allocate all costs on an hourly basis, are considered our “Full” dynamic tariff design scenario, while two additional scenarios explore allocating a portion of costs as a flat volumetric charge: the “Medium” scenario allocates 50% of revenue dynamically (and keeps 50% flat), while the “Mild” scenario allocates 20% of revenue dynamically. The 20% dynamic allocation on the Mild scenario aims to represent a case where only the marginal operating costs of the grid are included in the dynamic price.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

DOE OSTI2022

Electricity Bill Calculator (elecprice) v0.1.0

The Electricity Bill Calculator Library is a generic tool for manipulating the tariffs of electricity, with an emphasis on commercial Time-Of-Use (TOU) rates in the U.S. and residential Net Energy Metering tariffs in CA. Typical uses of the package are price signal generation and bill computation. To generate price signals from a specific tariff and given a time window, the tool creates a pandas dataframes containing the various components of the electricity charges, at each time step. This is particularly useful for Demand Response (DR) applications, such as price-based optimization of energy in buildings. The tool also computes bills given a building's power consumption and a specific tariff and returning the corresponding cost of electricity, as well as a breakdown per type of rate.

Prakash, Anand Krishnan↗

DOE OSTI2023

Stochastic Price Generation for Evaluating Wholesale Electricity Market Bidding Strategies

This work presents a novel method for generating electricity price scenarios from statistical properties of past electricity prices using a hybrid statistical and reduced-form stochastic model. Previous work in applying stochastic differential equations (SDE) to model electricity prices has focused on daily average prices. To extend stochastic price generation methods to hourly or sub-hourly pricing, we address several weaknesses in the state-of-the-art: (1) we replace the mean-reversion component of the SDE with an ARIMA process that is better able to characterize the daily and weekly trends; (2) we extend the price-spike, or jump process to account for conditional probabilities of price spikes occurring in consecutive time steps by replacing the traditional Poisson process for modeling jumps with a generalized point process model inspired by brain neuron models; and (3) we replace the traditional method of estimating spike intensity with empirical variance with a Markov process based on observed price spike intensity transitions. The method is demonstrated with electricity prices from the US ERCOT market and a use-case example is provided for bidding an energy storage unit into the day-ahead and real-time energy markets of ERCOT using stochastic optimization methods. Results show that the the synthetic price model out performs a (naive) persistence forecast model by resulting in 24% to 47% more in profits over 168 simulated days.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗