Experiment Credibility and ModSim Integration
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Lance, Blake [Sandia National Laboratories (SNL-NM↗
SEARCH · Search NASA
Results for “Credibility”
Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.
Quote a phrase for an exact phrase match. Source license links do not imply unrestricted reuse.
Physical Review Journal Club: Structural uncertainty assessment for fire-engulfed objects in crosswind: Establishing credibility for a multiphysics wall-modeled large-eddy simulation paradigm
This is an invited presentation for APS's monthly Journal Club where important papers that have recently been accepted for publication are highlighted in a seminar-like setting. The presentation will be "live" (May 1, 2025) and streamed across the world (including an archived recording).
Domino, Stefan Paul [Sandia National Laboratories ↗
Model credibility and risk quantification
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Karve, Pranav M. [Vanderbilt University]↗
Robust Assessment of Surrogate Model Credibility
Explore the source record for details and available documents.
Fathi, Nima↗
Systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of cosmic shear and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing
This paper presents the results of a systematic study of projection biases in the weak lensing analysis of cosmic shear and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing using data collected during the first year of running the Dark Energy Survey experiment. The study uses Lambda cold dark matter ( Λ CDM ) as the cosmological model and two-point correlation functions for the weak lensing (WL) analysis. The results in this paper show that, independent of the WL analysis, projection biases of more than 1 σ exist and are a function of the position of the true values of the parameters h , n s , Ω b , and Ω ν h 2 with respect to their prior probabilities. For cosmic shear, and the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing, this study shows that the coverage probability of the 68.27% credible intervals ranges from as high as 93% to as low as 16% and that these credible intervals are inflated, on average, by 29% for cosmic shear and 20% for the combination of galaxy clustering and galaxy-galaxy lensing. The results of the study also show that, in six out of nine tested cases, the reduction in error bars obtained by transforming credible intervals into confidence intervals is equivalent to an increase in the amount of data by a factor of 3.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Conformal Hierarchical Simulation-Based Inference with Local Validity
Trustworthy and interpretable uncertainty quantification is a long-standing challenge in artificial intelligence. Simulation-based inference (SBI) comprises a broad swath of approaches for estimating latent parameters with uncertainties. Although flexible neural density estimators in SBI can be remark- ably expressive capturing highly structured, high-dimensional posteriors their credible regions can be badly mis-calibrated and are often only accompanied by heuristic coverage checks. We present the first SBI framework that delivers finite-sample local valid coverage guarantees that hold in the neighborhood of each observation. Our framework can couple any off-the-shelf hierarchical SBI engine with a confor- mal Bayesian post-processing step that operates on the posterior predictive density. A kernel-weighted conformity score adapts the conformal quantile to the local geometry of the data, yielding prediction sets that are simultaneously (i) marginally calibrated, (ii) locally valid, and (iii) hierarchical, handling global and observation-specific parameters in a single pass. Through experiments on synthetic data and benchmarks from neuroscience and physics, we show that our approach attains 1 − α coverage, where prior SBI methods under- or over-cover. Our approach also maintains a competitive, credible set size with minimal computational overhead. Finally, our approach can be used to make predictions on real data and give valid credible regions modulo weight-initialization-based model mis-specification.
Trivedi, Shubhendu [Fermilab]↗
Recommendations for Comprehensive and Independent Evaluation of Machine Learning‐Based Earth System Models
Abstract Machine learning (ML) is a revolutionary technology with demonstrable applications across multiple disciplines. Within the Earth science community, ML has been most visible for weather forecasting, producing forecasts that rival modern physics‐based models. Given the importance of deepening our understanding and improving predictions of the Earth system on all time scales, efforts are now underway to develop Earth‐system models (ESMs) capable of representing all components of the coupled Earth system (or their aggregated behavior) and their response to external changes over long timescales. Building trust in ESMs is a much more difficult problem than for weather forecast models, not least because the model must represent the alternate (e.g., future or paleoclimatic) coupled states of the system for which there are no direct observations. Given that the physical principles that enable predictions about the response of the Earth system are often not explicitly coded in these ML‐based models, demonstrating the credibility of ML‐based ESMs thus requires us to build evidence of their consistency with the physical system. To this end, this paper puts forward five recommendations to enhance comprehensive, standardized, and independent evaluation of ML‐based ESMs to strengthen their credibility and promote their wider use.
54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗
Reviving sub-keV warm dark matter: a UVLF-based analysis
Thermal warm dark matter (WDM) particles with m WDM ≤ 1 keV are ruled out at more than 4σ by multiple observational probes, owing to the strong suppression of small-scale structure induced by early-time free-streaming. Recently, it was highlighted that a small admixture of ∼ 1% (f CDM ∼ 0.01) cold dark matter (CDM) endowed with a blue-tilted isocurvature spectrum could offset the WDM-induced suppression and relax the WDM mass bound by a factor of 𝒪(10). If viable, this “warm + cold-isocurvature” scenario would allow sub-keV WDM particles to constitute nearly the full dark matter abundance while potentially alleviating some small-scale tensions. In this work, we test this mechanism by constraining the WDM mass mWDM while marginalizing over CDM isocurvature parameters. We combine ultraviolet luminosity function measurements from the Hubble Space Telescope and James Webb Space Telescope over redshift 4 ≤ z ≤ 11 with CMB, BAO, and SNe data. For a pure WDM model, our joint analysis yields a lower bound m WDM > 1.8 keV (95% credible intervals). When CDM isocurvature is introduced at f CDM = 0.01, the limit relaxes to m WDM > 0.27 keV (95% credible intervals), reflecting a shallow degeneracy in which blue-tilted isocurvature fluctuations partially compensate for WDM suppression. These results provide new constraints on thermal WDM in the presence of CDM isocurvature fluctuations and quantify the extent to which such fluctuations can mask the small-scale signatures of light relics.
cosmological parameters from CMBR↗
Thermal stress in degraded forests in the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation
Understanding thermal stress in tropical forests has taken on new urgency in light of accelerating climate change and expansion of deforestation and forest degradation. Degraded tropical forests in particular may be approaching critical temperature thresholds even more rapidly than intact forests, with implications for tree survival and ecosystem recovery. We investigate thermal stress in degraded tropical forests within the Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation. Using land surface temperature data from the ECOsystem Spaceborne Thermal Radiometer Experiment on the international Space Station (ECOSTRESS), we compared canopy temperatures of intact, selectively logged, and burned forests in Feliz Natal, Mato Grosso, Brazil. Upper canopy temperatures in previously burned forests were 4.1% higher (mean = 36.5 °C) and 50.9% more variable compared to intact and logged forests, which showed remarkably similar temperature distributions (means of 34.9 °C and 35.1 °C, respectively). Modeled leaf temperature distributions based on canopy temperature measurements from one of the warmest days in a 2 year dry season record indicated that 87% of leaves in the warmest burned forest patches exceeded the temperature threshold where respiration surpasses photosynthesis, compared to approximately 72%–74% in intact and logged forests, respectively, in the same time period. After controlling for environmental factors, burned forests were predicted to be 2.6 °C warmer on average [1.39 °C–3.96 °C, 95% credible interval] than intact forests across a 5–40 m canopy height range. Burned forests showed modest thermal recovery over time, with temperatures decreasing by approximately 1.2 °C over a 30 year recovery period. In contrast, logged forests showed minimal thermal differences from intact forests (−0.353 on average, [−1.125–0.274, 95% credible interval]) and negligible change (0.15 °C) over the same timeframe. While the absolute probabilities of exceeding damaging thermal thresholds remain low across all forest types under current climate conditions, the probability of leaves exceeding temperatures that cause permanent leaf damage was ten times higher in burned forests, with implications for the future of burned forest regeneration in water-limited regions of the Amazon basin. In particular, the combination of higher mean temperatures, greater temperature variability, and more frequent exposure to damaging thermal thresholds implies that burned tropical forests will experience substantially higher mortality rates and slower biomass recovery compared to intact and selectively logged forests, especially in water-limited regions where trees cannot rely on evaporative cooling to moderate canopy temperatures.
Brazilian Amazon Arc of Deforestation↗
It is not σ 8 : constraining the non-linear matter power spectrum with the Dark Energy Survey Year-5 supernova sample
The weak gravitational lensing magnification of Type Ia supernovae (SNe Ia) is sensitive to the matter power spectrum on scales $k\gt 1 h$ Mpc$^{-1}$, making it unwise to interpret SNe Ia lensing in terms of power on linear scales. We compute the probability density function of SNe Ia magnification as a function of standard cosmological parameters, plus an empirical parameter $A_{\rm mod}$ which describes the suppression or enhancement of matter power on non-linear scales compared to a cold dark matter only model. While baryons are expected to enhance power on the scales relevant to SN Ia lensing, other physics such as neutrino masses or non-standard dark matter may suppress power. Using the Dark Energy Survey Year-5 sample, we find $A_{\rm mod} = 0.77^{+0.69}_{-0.40}$ (68 per cent credible interval around the median). Although the median is consistent with unity there are hints of power suppression, with $A_{\rm mod} \lt 1.09$ at 68 per cent credibility.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Model-agnostic likelihood for the reinterpretation of the 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + $𝑣\bar{𝑣}$ measurement at Belle II
We recently measured the branching fraction of the 𝐵 + → 𝐾 + $𝑣\bar{𝑣}$ decay using 362 fb −1 of on-resonance 𝑒 + 𝑒 − collision data under the assumption of Standard Model kinematics, providing the first evidence for this decay. To facilitate future reinterpretations and maximize the scientific impact of this measurement, we publicly release the full analysis likelihood along with all necessary material required for reinterpretation under arbitrary theoretical models sensitive to this measurement. In this work, we demonstrate how the measurement can be reinterpreted within the framework of the weak effective theory. Using a kinematic reweighting technique in combination with the published likelihood, we derive marginal posterior distributions for the Wilson coefficients, construct credible intervals, and assess the goodness of fit to the Belle II data. For the weak effective theory Wilson coefficients, the posterior mode of the magnitudes |𝐶 VL +𝐶 VR |, |𝐶 SL +𝐶 SR |, and |𝐶 TL | corresponds to the point (11.3, 0.0, 8.2). The respective 95% credible intervals are [1.9, 16.2], [0.0, 15.4], and [0.0, 11.2].
bottom quark↗
Method for Real-Time Salt Aerosol Concentration and Size Measurements for Molten Salt Reactor Safety Assessments
Licensing a new nuclear reactor involves evaluating credible accident scenarios by developing models that simulate accident progression to predict possible outcomes and their impact on safety. The formation of radionuclide-bearing aerosols in the respirable size range can significantly affect dose consequence and threaten human health and is therefore a focus of nuclear reactor safety assessments. Recent reviews of the literature identified a lack of existing experimental data describing the mechanisms of formation and properties (size, concentration, and composition) of radionuclide-bearing aerosols that may be produced from molten salt reactor (MSR) facilities during postulated accident scenarios. Experiments on aerosol formation from molten salt systems are a high priority need that will support MSR licensing by indicating the radiological consequences of aerosol formation and providing the data required for model development and validation. The evolving conditions that occur during a MSR accident, such as a spill of molten fuel salt, may affect aerosol formation mechanisms and aerosol properties over time. There is a need to conduct experiments that simulate credible MSR accidents in a laboratory to generate aerosols with realistic characteristics and behaviors and a need to measure these aerosols in real time under accident-relevant conditions. This report describes the development of a method that can be used to quantify the size and concentration of salt aerosol particles that form from molten salt systems in real time. This method will be employed in future integral effects tests that are conducted at an engineering scale to simulate realistic MSR accidents and in future separate effects tests that will provide mechanistic insight into aerosol formation and properties to support process model development.
22 GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
Reassessing Double-Ended Guillotine Break Requirements: Evidence-Based Analysis of Regulatory Assumptions After Five Decades of Nuclear Operation
After five decades of nuclear power operation encompassing more than 20,000 reactor-years across 35 countries and 647 reactors, zero double-ended guillotine breaks (DEGBs) have been documented in commercial reactor coolant systems—despite DEGB being the fundamental design-basis assumption driving Emergency Core Cooling System (ECCS) sizing, structural protection requirements, and containment design specifications. This report examines the basis for DEGB requirements in nuclear power plant design. The DEGB postulate assumes the instantaneous, complete circumferential severance of the largest diameter pipes in reactor coolant systems, driving major design requirements under 10 Code of Federal Regulations 50.46, General Design Criterion 4 and containment design specifications. The United States (4,880 reactor-years) and France (2,505 reactor-years) contribute the largest operational datasets. Probabilistic assessments estimate direct DEGB occurrence probabilities with extremely low event frequencies, far below the 10-5/reactor-year thresholds typically used to define non-credible events in nuclear-safety analyses; i.e., events with probability this low fall into beyond-design-basis events. Current material-science knowledge demonstrates that the ductile steel materials used in nuclear piping systems exhibit stable crack-growth behavior fundamentally incompatible with instantaneous severance. International regulatory experience, particularly Germany’s comprehensive break-preclusion implementation, and successful leak-before-break (LBB) applications in almost all of U.S. pressurized water reactor units validate that alternatives can maintain safety performance while reducing economic burden. Current DEGB protection systems impose estimated lifetime costs of hundreds of millions of dollars per unit, over the life of a plant across the nuclear industry (including ongoing costs), representing substantial resource allocation toward scenarios with extremely low probability. Although this report acknowledges uncertainties regarding long-term aging effects, potential synergistic degradation mechanisms, and site-specific seismic considerations that warrant continued evaluation as regulatory policy evolves, there remains no documented evidence that a DEGB has occurred as a consequence of the conditions or mechanisms described in this report. This report acknowledges the Nuclear Regulatory Commission’s (NRC’s) recent efforts—outlined in the draft Interim Staff Guidance (ISG) NRC-DSS-ISG-2025-XX (“Treatment of Certain Loss-of-Coolant Accident Locations as Beyond-Design-Basis Accidents Draft Interim Staff Guidance”)—to reduce overly conservative requirements for large-break loss of coolant accidents through technical justifications and exemptions. However, extensive operating experience and validated methodologies—such as LBB and in-service inspection programs—demonstrate that the probability of a DEGB in reactor coolant-loop piping is extremely low, even under seismic conditions. The authors and reviewers of this report recommend that DEGB be removed as a design-basis event through formal rulemaking, rather than case-by-case exemptions, to better reflect credible failure modes, align with current data, and align with modern, risk-informed safety analysis.
22 - GENERAL STUDIES OF NUCLEAR REACTORS↗
A More Precise Measurement of the Radius of PSR J0740+6620 Using Updated NICER Data
PSR J0740+6620 is the neutron star with the highest precisely determined mass, inferred from radio observations to be 2.08 ± 0.07 M ⊙ . Measurements of its radius therefore hold promise to constrain the properties of the cold, catalyzed, high-density matter in neutron star cores. Previously, Miller et al. and Riley et al. reported measurements of the radius of PSR J0740+6620 based on Neutron Star Interior Composition Explorer (NICER) observations accumulated through 2020 April 17, and an exploratory analysis utilizing NICER background estimates and a data set accumulated through 2021 December 28 was presented in Salmi et al. Here we report an updated radius measurement, derived by fitting models of X-ray emission from the neutron star surface to NICER data accumulated through 2022 April 21, totaling ~1.1 Ms additional exposure compared to the data set analyzed in Miller et al. and Riley et al., and to data from XMM-Newton observations. We find that the equatorial circumferential radius of PSR J0740+6620 is ${12.92}_{-1.13}^{+2.09}$ km (68% credibility), a fractional uncertainty ~83% the width of that reported in Miller et al., in line with statistical expectations given the additional data. If we were to require the radius to be less than 16 km, as was done in Salmi et al., then our 68% credible region would become $R={12.76}_{-1.02}^{+1.49}$ km, which is close to the headline result of Salmi et al. Our updated measurements, along with other laboratory and astrophysical constraints, imply a slightly softer equation of state than that inferred from our previous measurements.
79 ASTRONOMY AND ASTROPHYSICS↗
Alleviating prior dependencies for DESI DR1 clustering fits through reparameterization
Bayesian analyses of the full-shape clustering of Dark Energy Spectroscopic Instrument (DESI) Data Release 1 (DR1) exhibit prior-volume projection effects, whereby weakly constrained nuisance parameters of the Effective Field Theory of Large Scale Structure (EFTofLSS) shift marginalized cosmological posteriors away from the posterior maximum. We reanalyze DESI DR1 power spectrum multipoles using two complementary mitigation strategies: (i) nonlinear orthogonalization to decorrelate nuisance and cosmological parameter priors, and (ii) a fully reparameterization-invariant Jeffreys prior over all EFTofLSS coefficients, evaluated on-the-fly via closed-form Jacobians. Including data from DESI, Big-Bang Nuclesynthesis and a constraint on $n_{\mathrm{s}}$, baseline priors lead to multi-$σ$ projection in the Hubble parameter $H_{0}$ and dark energy equation of state parameters $w_{0}$ and $w_{a}$; the Jeffreys prior successfully recenters these posteriors to enclose the maximum a posteriori estimate within the 68% credible regions, demonstrating clear mitigation of projection effects for these late-time expansion parameters. A hybrid Jeffreys+baseline-Gaussian configuration controls residual over-broad tails in the physical cold dark matter density $ω_{\mathrm{c}}$ while preserving the volume correction, and is our favoured approach. We compare the credible intervals derived using our methodology to those obtained using Halo Occupation Distribution (HOD)-informed priors and to confidence intervals derived using frequentist profile likelihood analyses, finding agreement in both central values and degeneracy directions in the $w_{0}$--$w_{a}$ plane. This demonstrates that, once projection effects are properly controlled, we can make robust inferences about the late-time cosmological expansion independent of the statistical framework adopted.
Bonici, M. [Waterloo U.; Perimeter Inst. Theor. Ph↗
Polywell Revisited
The Polywell fusion concept, originally proposed by Robert W. Bussard in 1985, has been investigated for over four decades as a potential solution for achieving net fusion energy in a compact and economically viable reactor. It combines two distinct approaches: high-beta magnetic cusp confinement of electrons using polyhedral coil configurations and electrostatic ion confinement via a potential well formed by injected electron beams. While the hybrid nature of the Polywell system offers advantages in plasma stability and engineering simplicity, previous efforts have been limited by persistent challenges in achieving sufficient plasma confinement required to generate a net energy gain. Here, in this study, we examine previous works and identify limitations of several Polywell embodiments that have historically impeded progress. We present an updated Polywell physics model incorporating experimental findings and recent first-principles particle-in-cell simulations. This updated model outlines a credible path toward overcoming confinement losses and achieving net energy gain using deuterium-tritium (D-T) fuels. Our findings provide a renewed scientific basis for the continued development of the Polywell fusion concept as a practical and scalable approach to fusion energy.
Electrostatic potential well↗
SPARTA: A flux adjustment methodology to interpret complex experiments
For the accurate determination of reactivity from a detector count rate, correction of spatial effects is of prime importance. This spatial correction is often provided using simulation methodologies, but this may introduce a bias if the result of the experiment is also used as input data for the simulation. Here, this work presents a flux adjustment methodology able to infer experimental reactivity and correction of spatial effects without the need for a simulation. It can process the signal from a complex experiment such as a heat balance measurement in the TREAT reactor, where control rods are continuously adjusted to maintain a constant power. In the present work, this methodology successfully computed the reactivity and the local spatial variation of the flux of a generated signal. It also proved to be robust against noise and errors on kinetic parameters and provides a credible interpretation of a heat balance experiment in TREAT. Efficiency of flux adjustment methods for complex experiment enable a better experiment interpretation less reliant on nuclear data evaluation.
73 - NUCLEAR PHYSICS AND RADIATION PHYSICS↗
Bayesian discovery of optimal reduced order models from mechanistic and experimental data: A case study of Pd penetration in TRISO fuels using BISON
TRistructural ISOtropic (TRISO) particles rely on a silicon carbide (SiC) layer as the primary structural material and barrier to metallic fission products (FPs) release. Accurate prediction of palladium (Pd) transport and penetration is therefore critical for qualifying TRISO fuels for advanced reactors. The empirical correlation for Pd penetration in BISON is derived from historical particle-fuel data, but cannot explain the large scatter in the experimental data that arises from varying experimental conditions. To aid fuel qualification, we previously developed a mechanistic reduced order model (ROM) using BISON that resolves these dependencies. Here, in this work we build on that mechanistic ROM and perform validation and quantify its uncertainty using Bayesian uncertainty quantification (UQ). calibration against a suite of in-pile and out-of-pile experiments spanning particle compositions, geometries, and operating conditions, and we benchmark it against the empirical correlation. Bayesian UQ identifies influential parameters, calibrates them to data, and yields predictive intervals. Results show that while the empirical correlation can be tuned to fit a single experiment type, it transfers poorly; the mechanistic ROM sustains accuracy with credible uncertainty across disparate conditions. This demonstrates a practical path—via Bayesian UQ applied to mechanistic ROMs—to leverage single-effect experiments for inferring in-reactor behavior and supporting TRISO fuel qualification.
11 - NUCLEAR FUEL CYCLE AND FUEL MATERIALS↗