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Search indexed NASA NTRS and DOE OSTI research on propulsion, heat transfer, battery materials and energy systems. Follow report and document links to the original sources.

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At least 37 records · Page 2
All sourcesNASA NTRSDOE OSTI
DOE OSTI2017

'A Good Decision Is Based On Information, Not On Numbers' - A Process For National Strategic Decision Making - 17203

Waste management decision making is the process used by waste owners to determine and justify choices in across the lifecycle of a waste (from the manner of generation or retrieval to final disposition). In the UK, waste owners in the nuclear industry are obligated, by their environmental permits and authorisations, to demonstrate the application of robust and well-underpinned decision making processes for waste management. This is captured through the requirement for waste owners to demonstrate the identification and implementation of Best Available Technique (BAT). The National Waste Programme (NWP), led by LLW Repository Ltd, is a UK wide programme which leads the implementation of the UK National Strategy for the management of solid LLW from the nuclear industry [1] and which aims to deliver a self-sustaining culture for optimised management of Low Level Waste (LLW) in the UK. Recognising the requirement on waste owners, the NWP has - in conjunction with appointed contractors - led the development and publication of national strategic optioneering studies (so-called national strategic BAT studies) to support waste owners. Recognising the benefits that this approach to optioneering and strategic decision making could have for other waste producers, this paper provides an overview of the process used for the development of the suite of national strategic BAT assessments for the NWP. It details: the main phases of the process, the key features of each process phase, the benefits of the approach and key learning from its deployment in practice. Note: The legislative regime in England and Wales requires the identification and application of BAT. There is an equivalent regime in Scotland known as Best Practicable Environmental Option (BPEO) and Best Practicable Means (BPM). The requirements are comparable across the two legislative regimes and, for the purposes of simplicity, the term BAT will be utilised in this paper. The approach and outcomes of the national strategic optioneering process described are applicable across the UK. (authors)

12 MANAGEMENT OF RADIOACTIVE AND NON-RADIOACTIVE W↗
DOE OSTI2018

An intertemporal decision framework for electrochemical energy storage management

Dispatchable energy storage is necessary to enable renewable-based power systems that have zero or very low carbon emissions. The inherent degradation behaviour of electrochemical energy storage (EES) is a major concern for both EES operational decisions and EES economic assessments. Here in this paper, we propose a decision framework that addresses the intertemporal trade-offs in terms of EES degradation by deriving, implementing and optimizing two metrics: the marginal benefit of usage and the average benefit of usage. These metrics are independent of the capital cost of the EES system, and, as such, separate the value of EES use from the initial cost, which provides a different perspective on storage valuation and operation. Our framework is proved to produce the optimal solution for EES life-cycle profit maximization. We show that the proposed framework offers effective ways to assess the economic values of EES, to make investment decisions for various applications and to inform related subsidy policies.

25 ENERGY STORAGE↗
NASA NTRS1993

Decision theory for computing variable and value ordering decisions for scheduling problems

Heuristics that guide search are critical when solving large planning and scheduling problems, but most variable and value ordering heuristics are sensitive to only one feature of the search state. One wants to combine evidence from all features of the search state into a subjective probability that a value choice is best, but there has been no solid semantics for merging evidence when it is conceived in these terms. Instead, variable and value ordering decisions should be viewed as problems in decision theory. This led to two key insights: (1) The fundamental concept that allows heuristic evidence to be merged is the net incremental utility that will be achieved by assigning a value to a variable. Probability distributions about net incremental utility can merge evidence from the utility function, binary constraints, resource constraints, and other problem features. The subjective probability that a value is the best choice is then derived from probability distributions about net incremental utility. (2) The methods used for rumor control in Bayesian Networks are the primary way to prevent cycling in the computation of probable net incremental utility. These insights lead to semantically justifiable ways to compute heuristic variable and value ordering decisions that merge evidence from all available features of the search state.

Linden, Theodore A.↗
DOE OSTI2024

Decision-making based on Markov decision process in integrated artificial reasoning framework—Part I: Theory

This paper presents a decision-making framework based on an integrated artificial reasoning framework and Markov decision process (MDP). The integrated artificial reasoning framework provides a physics-based approach that converts system information into state transition models, and the analysis result will be represented by the transition probabilities that can be used with an MDP to find a traceable and explainable optimal pathway. A dynamic Bayesian network (DBN) is well suited for representing the structure of an MDP. The causality information among process variables (or among subsystems) is mathematically represented in a DBN by the conditional probabilities of the node’s states provided different probabilities of the parent node’s states. To define node states in a physically understandable manner, we used multilevel flow modeling (MFM). An MFM follows the fundamental energy and mass conservation laws and supports the selection of process variables that represent the system of interest so that causal relations among process variables are properly captured. An MFM-based DBN supports developing state transition models in an MDP to capture the effect of process variables of system having physical relations. The operators of the target system can capture stochastic system dynamics as multiple subsystem state transitions based on their physical relations and uncertainties coming from component degradation or random failures. We analyzed a simplified exemplary system to illustrate an optimal operational policy using the suggested approach.

Markov decision process↗
DOE OSTI2023

Hydropower Potential at Non-Powered Dams: A Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Tool based on Grid, Community, Industry, and Environmental Impacts

Non-powered dams (NPDs) are dams that do not include hydraulic turbine (hydropower) equipment. Currently, there are more than 80,000 such dams in the United States, which provide a variety of non-energy benefits, including flood control, water supply, navigation, and recreation. Approximately 500 of these NPDs are identified as having the potential to add hydropower generation (totaling up to a capacity of more than 8200 MW). A large share of investment costs and environmental impacts of dam construction have already been incurred at these NPDs. Hence, adding power to the existing dam structure is hypothesized to be achieved at a lower cost, with less risk, and a shorter timeframe than the development required for new dam construction. The abundance of NPDs, the associated environmental favorability, and cost advantages, combined with the reliability, predictability, and dispatchability of hydropower, make NPDs a strong candidate in the nation’s renewable energy portfolio. To assess the NPD to hydropower conversion potential, in this study, we developed a GIS-based multi-criterial decision analysis tool, which allows users to rank these NPDs based on the grid, community, industry, and environmental impacts (i.e., GCIE impacts). This web-based interactive tool (developed using open-source Python and JavaScript) lets the user choose from a wide range of features to define each of the GCIE impact scores through a user-friendly graphical user interface. These features are related to dam operation, hydropower generation opportunity, power market economy, social vulnerability and risk, proximity to critical infrastructure and energy generating facilities, environmental concerns (air, water, and critical habitat), and exposure to natural hazards. The overall priority score of NPDs is calculated based on user-defined weights for each of the GCIE impact scores. Besides ranking NPDs, the tool can also be used to estimate the energy-storage feasibility (battery, hydrogen, and pump-storage hydropower) at each of the potential sites.

13 HYDRO ENERGY↗
DOE OSTI2016

Visualization and Analysis for Near-Real-Time Decision Making in Distributed Workflows

Data driven science is becoming increasingly more common, complex, and is placing tremendous stresses on visualization and analysis frameworks. Data sources producing 10GB per second (and more) are becoming increasingly commonplace in both simulation, sensor and experimental sciences. These data sources, which are often distributed around the world, must be analyzed by teams of scientists that are also distributed. Enabling scientists to view, query and interact with such large volumes of data in near-real-time requires a rich fusion of visualization and analysis techniques, middleware and workflow systems. Here, this paper discusses initial research into visualization and analysis of distributed data workflows that enables scientists to make near-real-time decisions of large volumes of time varying data.

97 MATHEMATICS AND COMPUTING↗
DOE OSTI2017

Fate Decision Between Group 3 Innate Lymphoid and Conventional NK Cell Lineages by Notch Signaling in Human Circulating Hematopoietic Progenitors

The role of Notch signaling in human innate lymphoid cell (ILC) differentiation is unclear, although IL-7 and IL-15 promote differentiation of natural cytotoxicity receptor (NCR) NKp44+ group 3 ILCs (NCR+ILC3s) and conventional NK (cNK) cells from CD34 + hematopoietic progenitor cells (HPCs) ex vivo. In this study, we analyzed the functions of Notch in the differentiation of NCR + ILC3s and cNK cells from human HPC subpopulations circulating in peripheral blood by limiting dilution and clonal assays using high-throughput flow cytometry. We demonstrated that Notch signaling in combination with IL-7 induced NCR + ILC3 differentiation, but conversely suppressed IL-15–dependent cNK cell generation in CD45RA+Flt-3-c-Kit low , a novel innate lymphocyte-committed HPC subpopulation. In contrast, Notch signaling induced CD45RA-Flt-3 + c-Kithigh multipotent HPCs to generate CD34 + CD7 + CD62L high , the earliest thymic progenitor–like cells, which preserved high cNK/T cell potential, but lost NCR + ILC3 potential. These findings implicate the countervailing functions of Notch signaling in the fate decision between NCR + ILC3 and cNK cell lineages at different maturational stages of human HPCs. Inhibition of Notch functions by Abs specific for either the Notch1 or Notch2 negative regulatory region suggested that both Notch1 and Notch2 signals were involved in the fate decision of innate lymphocyte-committed HPCs and in the generation of earliest thymic progenitor–like cells from multipotent HPCs. Furthermore, the synergistic interaction between Notch and IL-7 in NCR + ILC3 commitment was primarily explicable by the induction of IL-7 receptor expression in the innate lymphocyte–committed HPCs by Notch stimulation, suggesting the pivotal role of Notch in the transcriptional control required for human NCR + ILC3 commitment.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
DOE OSTI2022

Application of Multi-Criteria Decision Analysis Techniques for Informing Select Agent Designation and Decision Making

The Centers for Disease Control and Prevention (CDC) Select Agent Program establishes a list of biological agents and toxins that potentially threaten public health and safety, the procedures governing the possession, utilization, and transfer of those agents, and training requirements for entities working with them. Every 2 years the Program reviews the select agent list, utilizing subject matter expert (SME) assessments to rank the agents. In this study, we explore the applicability of multi-criteria decision analysis (MCDA) techniques and logic tree analysis to support the CDC Select Agent Program biennial review process, applying the approach broadly to include non-select agents to evaluate its generality. We conducted a literature search for over 70 pathogens against 15 criteria for assessing public health and bioterrorism risk and documented the findings for archiving. The most prominent data gaps were found for aerosol stability and human infectious dose by inhalation and ingestion routes. Technical review of published data and associated scoring recommendations by pathogen-specific SMEs was found to be critical for accuracy, particularly for pathogens with very few known cases, or where proxy data (e.g., from animal models or similar organisms) were used to address data gaps. Analysis of results obtained from a two-dimensional plot of weighted scores for difficulty of attack (i.e., exposure and production criteria) vs. consequences of an attack (i.e., consequence and mitigation criteria) provided greater fidelity for understanding agent placement compared to a 1-to-n ranking and was used to define a region in the upper right-hand quadrant for identifying pathogens for consideration as select agents. A sensitivity analysis varied the numerical weights attributed to various properties of the pathogens to identify potential quantitative (x and y) thresholds for classifying select agents. The results indicate while there is some clustering of agent scores to suggest thresholds, there are still pathogens that score close to any threshold, suggesting that thresholding “by eye” may not be sufficient. The sensitivity analysis indicates quantitative thresholds are plausible, and there is good agreement of the analytical results with select agent designations. A second analytical approach that applied the data using a logic tree format to rule out pathogens for consideration as select agents arrived at similar conclusions.

60 APPLIED LIFE SCIENCES↗
NASA NTRS1993

A decision-theoretic approach to the display of information for time-critical decisions: The Vista project

We describe a collaborative research and development effort between the Palo Alto Laboratory of the Rockwell Science Center, Rockwell Space Operations Company, and the Propulsion Systems Section of NASA JSC to design computational tools that can manage the complexity of information displayed to human operators in high-stakes, time-critical decision contexts. We shall review an application from NASA Mission Control and describe how we integrated a probabilistic diagnostic model and a time-dependent utility model, with techniques for managing the complexity of computer displays. Then, we shall describe the behavior of VPROP, a system constructed to demonstrate promising display-management techniques. Finally, we shall describe our current research directions on the Vista 2 follow-on project.

Horvitz, Eric↗