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DOE OSTI2021

Kinetic Properties of Microbial Exoenzymes Vary With Soil Depth but Have Similar Temperature Sensitivities Through the Soil Profile

Current knowledge of the mechanisms driving soil organic matter (SOM) turnover and responses to warming is mainly limited to surface soils, although over 50% of global soil carbon is contained in subsoils. Deep soils have different physicochemical properties, nutrient inputs, and microbiomes, which may harbor distinct functional traits and lead to different SOM dynamics and temperature responses. We hypothesized that kinetic and thermal properties of soil exoenzymes, which mediate SOM depolymerization, vary with soil depth, reflecting microbial adaptation to distinct substrate and temperature regimes. We determined the Michaelis-Menten (MM) kinetics of three ubiquitous enzymes involved in carbon (C), nitrogen (N) and phosphorus (P) acquisition at six soil depths down to 90 cm at a temperate forest, and their temperature sensitivity based on Arrhenius/ Q 10 and Macromolecular Rate Theory (MMRT) models over six temperatures between 4–50°C. Maximal enzyme velocity ( V max ) decreased strongly with depth for all enzymes, both on a dry soil mass and a microbial biomass C basis, whereas their affinities increased, indicating adaptation to lower substrate availability. Surprisingly, microbial biomass-specific catalytic efficiencies also decreased with depth, except for the P-acquiring enzyme, indicating distinct nutrient demands at depth relative to microbial abundance. These results suggested that deep soil microbiomes encode enzymes with intrinsically lower turnover and/or produce less enzymes per cell, reflecting distinct life strategies. The relative kinetics between different enzymes also varied with depth, suggesting an increase in relative P demand with depth, or that phosphatases may be involved in C acquisition. V max and catalytic efficiency increased consistently with temperature for all enzymes, leading to overall higher SOM-decomposition potential, but enzyme temperature sensitivity was similar at all depths and between enzymes, based on both Arrhenius/ Q 10 and MMRT models. In a few cases, however, temperature affected differently the kinetic properties of distinct enzymes at discrete depths, suggesting that it may alter the relative depolymerization of different compounds. We show that soil exoenzyme kinetics may reflect intrinsic traits of microbiomes adapted to distinct soil depths, although their temperature sensitivity is remarkably uniform. These results improve our understanding of critical mechanisms underlying SOM dynamics and responses to changing temperatures through the soil profile.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

NASA NTRS2000

Predicting Fire Susceptibility in the Forests of Amazonia

Although fire is the single greatest threat to the ecological integrity of Amazon forests, our ability to predict the occurrence of Amazon forest fires is rudimentary. Part of the difficulty encountered in making such predictions is the remarkable capacity of Amazon forests to tolerate drought by tapping moisture stored in deep soil. These forests can avoid drought-induced leaf shedding by withdrawing moisture to depths of 8 meters and more. Hence, the absorption of deep soil moisture allows these forests to maintain their leaf canopies following droughts of several months duration, thereby maintaining the deep shade and high relative humidity of the forest interior that prevents these ecosystems from burning. But the drought- and fire-avoidance that is conferred by this deep-rooting phenomenon is not unlimited. During successive years of drought, such as those provoked by El Nino episodes, deep soil moisture can be depleted, and drought-induced leaf shedding begins. The goal of this project was to incorporate this knowledge of Amazon forest fire ecology into a predictive model of forest flammability.

Nepstad, Daniel C.↗

DOE OSTI2024

Save or spend? Diverging water‐use strategies of grasses and encroaching clonal shrubs

Abstract Shrub encroachment is one of the primary threats to mesic grasslands around the world. This dramatic shift in plant cover has the potential to alter ecosystem‐scale water budgets and responses to novel rainfall regimes. Understanding divergent water‐use strategies among encroaching shrubs and the grasses they replace is critical for predicting shifts in ecosystem‐scale water dynamics as a result of shrub encroachment, particularly if drought events become more frequent and/or severe in the future. In this study, we assessed how water‐use traits of a rapidly encroaching clonal shrub (Cornus drummondii) and a dominant C 4 grass (Andropogon gerardii) impact responses to changes in water availability in tallgrass prairie. We assessed intra‐annual change in depth of water uptake, turgor loss point and stomatal regulation in each species. Sampling took place at Konza Prairie Biological Station (northeastern KS, USA) during the 2021 and 2022 growing seasons. Cornus drummondiishifted from shallow to deep soil water sources across the 2021 and 2022 growing seasons. This plasticity in depth of water uptake facilitated a ‘wasteful’ water‐use strategy inC. drummondii, where stomatal conductance and transpiration rates continued to increase even when no further gain in photosynthetic rate occurred.A. gerardiiphotosynthetic rates and stomatal conductance were more variable through time and were more responsive to changes in leaf water potential thanC. drummondii. However, intra‐annual adjustment of turgor loss point was more pronounced inC. drummondii(Δπ TLP = −0.48 MPa ± 0.15 SD) than inA. gerardii(Δπ TLP = −0.29 MPa ± 0.19 SD). Synthesis. These results suggest thatC. drummondiiis highly resilient to changes in water availability in surface soils and will likely remain unaffected by future droughts unless they are severe enough to reduce the availability of deep soil water. Given that clonal shrubs are key invaders of grasslands world‐wide, increased leaf‐level water loss is expected to accelerate ecosystem‐level drying as clonal shrub encroachment proceeds in mesic grasslands.

Environmental Sciences & Ecology↗

NASA NTRS2021

Groundwater Recharge Estimated by Land Surface Models: An Evaluation in the Conterminous U.S.

Estimating diffuse recharge of precipitation is fundamental to assessing groundwater sustainability. Diffuse recharge is also the process through which climate and climate change directly affect groundwater. In this study, we evaluated diffuse recharge over the conterminous U.S. simulated by a suite of land surface models (LSMs) that were forced using a common set of meteorological input data. Simulated annual recharge exhibited spatial patterns that were similar among the LSMs, with the highest values in the eastern U.S. and Pacific Northwest. However, the magnitudes of annual recharge varied significantly among the models and were associated with differences in simulated ET, runoff and snow. Evaluation against two independent datasets did not answer the question of whether the ensemble mean performs the best, due to inconsistency between those datasets. The amplitude and timing of seasonal maximum recharge differed among the models, influenced strongly by model physics governing deep soil moisture drainage rates and, in cold regions, snowmelt. Evaluation using in situ soil moisture observations suggested that true recharge peaks 1-3 months later than simulated recharge, indicating systematic biases in simulating deep soil moisture. However, recharge from lateral flows and through preferential flows cannot be inferred from soil moisture data, and the seasonal cycle of simulated groundwater storage actually compared well with in situ groundwater observations. Long-term trends in recharge were not consistently correlated with either precipitation trends or temperature trends. This study highlights the need to employ dynamic flow models in LSMs, among other improvements, to enable more accurate simulation of recharge.

snowmelt↗

DOE OSTI2024

Adding labile carbon to peatland soils triggers deep carbon breakdown

Peatlands store vast amounts of carbon, with deep peat carbon remaining stable due to limited thermodynamic energy and transport. However, climate change-induced increases in labile carbon inputs could destabilize these stores. Here, we combined DNA stable isotope probing with stable isotope-assisted metabolomics employing a multi-platform approach to investigate microbial dynamics driving deep peat carbon degradation upon labile carbon (e.g., glucose) amendment. Our findings highlight the vulnerability of deep peat carbon, as glucose addition triggers the breakdown of older organic matter. By uniquely integrating these techniques, we identified active glucose metabolizers to specific microbial populations and mapped carbon flow through microbial networks, elucidating their role in priming recalcitrant carbon mineralization. This multi-omics approach offers crucial insights into how changing resources reshape the peatland microbiome, enhancing our understanding of deep carbon processing, and refining model parameterization to predict microbial responses and carbon cycle feedbacks under global change pressures.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Summary Data for paper titled: Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry

Climate change is causing an increase in drought in many soil ecosystems and a loss of soil organic carbon. Calcareous soils may partially mitigate these losses via carbon capture and storage. Here, we aimed to determine how irrigation-supplied soil moisture and perennial plants impact biotic and abiotic soil properties that underpin deep soil carbon chemistry in an unfertilized calcareous soil. Soil was sampled up to one meter in depth from irrigated and planted field treatments and analyzed using a suite of omics and chemical analyses. Carbon cycling processes in the surface soil were dominated by plant-microbe interactions that drive organic carbon cycling, whereas inorganic carbon chemistry dominated in deeper soil layers. Both irrigation and plant cover impacted organic and inorganic carbon pools in the soil profiles. This study reveals the complex interactions between water, plants, minerals, and microorganisms that govern organic and inorganic pools of soil carbon at different depths.

59 BASIC BIOLOGICAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry: Summary Data

Naasko, Katherine I↗

DOE OSTI2023

Data for Influence of soil depth, irrigation, and plant genotype on the soil microbiome, metaphenome, and carbon chemistry: Sequence Data

Naasko, Katherine I↗

NASA NTRS2000

Snow Physics and Meltwater Hydrology of the SSiB Model Employed for Climate Simulation Studies with GEOS 2 GCM

Present-day climate models produce large climate drifts that interfere with the climate signals simulated in modelling studies. The simplifying assumptions of the physical parameterization of snow and ice processes lead to large biases in the annual cycles of surface temperature, evapotranspiration, and the water budget, which in turn causes erroneous land-atmosphere interactions. Since land processes are vital for climate prediction, and snow and snowmelt processes have been shown to affect Indian monsoons and North American rainfall and hydrology, special attention is now being given to cold land processes and their influence on the simulated annual cycle in GCMs. The snow model of the SSiB land-surface model being used at Goddard has evolved from a unified single snow-soil layer interacting with a deep soil layer through a force-restore procedure to a two-layer snow model atop a ground layer separated by a snow-ground interface. When the snow cover is deep, force-restore occurs within the snow layers. However, several other simplifying assumptions such as homogeneous snow cover, an empirical depth related surface albedo, snowmelt and melt-freeze in the diurnal cycles, and neglect of latent heat of soil freezing and thawing still remain as nagging problems. Several important influences of these assumptions will be discussed with the goal of improving them to better simulate the snowmelt and meltwater hydrology. Nevertheless, the current snow model (Mocko and Sud, 2000, submitted) better simulates cold land processes as compared to the original SSiB. This was confirmed against observations of soil moisture, runoff, and snow cover in global GSWP (Sud and Mocko, 1999) and point-scale Valdai simulations over seasonal snow regions. New results from the current snow model SSiB from the 10-year PILPS 2e intercomparison in northern Scandinavia will be presented.

Mocko, David M.↗

DOE OSTI2022

Climatic controls on soil and saprock nitrogen distribution and persistence in the Sierra Nevada

Nitrogen (N) is an essential nutrient in soil that regulates plant growth, terrestrial sequestration of atmospheric carbon dioxide, and persistence of organic compounds. However, major knowledge gaps remain about how climate change may impact N accumulation and persistence, especially in deep soil and saprock (friable weakly weathered bedrock). Our objective was to understand how climate impacts the accumulation of N in soil and saprock and how climate impacts soil N distribution, persistence, and mechanisms of N persistence. We investigated N concentration in bulk soil and density fractions. We estimated N persistence along a bio-climatic sequence—sites range from a low-elevation oak savannah, mid-elevation pine-oak/mixed-conifer forest, to a high-elevation subalpine forest—in the southern Sierra Nevada in California. A combination of radiocarbon and elemental composition measurements along with a first-order kinetic model was used. The N concentration in the bulk soil and density fractions declined with depth, and there was a relatively greater mineral-associated heavy fraction (HF) N in deeper samples. The cooler/wetter mixed conifer site held 37% of profile N in saprock, which was greater than that of the entire soil profile at the drier/hotter oak savannah. The majority of N in soil, which was in the HF, was not influenced by climate proxies tested. However, both unprotected and occluded fractions of N were strongly influenced by climate. Soil N mean residence time (MRT) showed that drier/hotter climates have a shorter MRT, compared to mid-elevation sites with cooler/wetter climates. The effect of climate on deep saprock N storage might be indirect, primarily through climatic influence on the thickness of saprock. Overall, our findings suggest the mineral-associated HF N pool will not be vulnerable to changes in climate and will continue to contribute to the persistent soil N pool. The amount of topsoil and subsoil unprotected and occluded N can be explained by gross primary productivity and mean annual precipitation indicating that changes in climate can influence N partitioning. N stored in deep soil and saprock may be less vulnerable to climate than N stored in drier/hotter climates with less deeply stored N. It is critical to dig deeper to understand terrestrial ecosystems’ response to climate.

58 GEOSCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Hicks Pries, Sulman, et al 2018. In situ incubation of 13C-labeled litter in three soil pits at Blodgett Forest, CA from 2013 to 2016

Even though over half of the world's soil organic carbon (SOC) is stored in subsoils (>20 cm deep), and the old ages of subsoil OC indicate its cycling differs from surface SOC, there are few studies examining in situ decomposition processes in deep soils. The purpose of this dataset is to elucidate these processes. In this study we added 13C-labeled fine roots to 15, 55, and 95 cm depths of a well-characterized coniferous forest Alfisol and monitored the amount of root-derived C remaining over 6, 12, and 30 months. We recovered the root-derived C in microbial phospholipid fatty acids (PLFAs) after 6 months and in coarse (>2 mm) particulate, fine (<2 mm) particulate, and dense, mineral-associated pools after 6, 12, and 30 months. Overall, root decomposition in the first 6 months was similar among all depths but significantly diverged at 30 months with faster decomposition at 15 cm than at 95 cm. There were more fungal and Gram negative-associated PLFAs at 15 cm than at 95 cm, and 13C analysis revealed those microbial groups preferred the added root carbon to native SOC. Mineral-associations were not the cause of slower decomposition at depth because similar amounts of applied root C was recovered in the dense fraction at all depths. The largest difference among depths was in the amount of root C recovered in the coarse particulate fraction, which was greater at 95 cm (50%) than at 15 cm (15%). Slower decomposition of the particulate pool at depth likely contributed to the increase in C:N ratios and depletion of δ13C values below 60 cm depth in our soil profiles. Simulations of these soils using the CORPSE model, which incorporates microbial priming effects and mineral stabilization of SOC, reproduced patterns of particulate and mineral-associated SOC over both time and depth and suggested that a lack of priming by root exudates at depth could account for the slower decomposition rate of particulate root material. Decomposition of deep particulate SOC may increase if root exudation or dissolved OC transport to depth increases.This dataset includes (1) characterization of the soil pits prior to litter addition, (2) characterization of how the litter changed after 6, 12, and 30 months, and (3) the CORPSE model structure, parameterization, and output.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2022

Encoding Diel Hysteresis and the Birch Effect in Dryland Soil Respiration Models through Knowledge-Guided Deep Learning

Soil respiration in dryland ecosystems is challenging to model due to its complex interactions with environmental drivers. Knowledge-guided deep learning provides a much more effective means of accurately representing these complex interactions than traditional Q10-based models. Mutual information analysis revealed that future soil temperature shares more information with soil respiration than past soil temperature, consistent with their clockwise diel hysteresis. We explicitly encoded diel hysteresis, soil drying, and soil rewetting effects on soil respiration dynamics in a newly designed Long Short Term Memory (LSTM) model. The model takes both past and future environmental drivers as inputs to predict soil respiration. The new LSTM model substantially outperformed three Q10-based models and the Community Land Model when reproducing the observed soil respiration dynamics in a semi-arid ecosystem. The new LSTM model clearly demonstrated its superiority for temporally extrapolating soil respiration dynamics, such that the resulting correlation with observational data is up to 0.7 while the correlations of the Q10-based models and the Community Land Model (CLM) are less than 0.4. Our results underscore the high potential for knowledge-guided deep learning to replace Q10-based soil respiration modules in Earth system models.

Jiang, Peishi↗

NASA NTRS2001

Thresholds in Atmosphere-Soil Moisture Interactions: Results from Climate Model Studies

The potential predictability of the effects of warm season soil moisture anomalies over the central U.S. has been investigated using a series of GCM (Global Climate Model) experiments with the NCAR (National Center for Atmospheric Research) CCM3 (Community Climate Model version 3)/LSM (Land Surface Model). Three different types of experiments have been made, all starting in either March (representing precursor conditions) or June (conditions at the onset of the warm season): (1) 'anomaly' runs with large, exaggerated initial soil moisture reductions, aimed at evaluating the physical mechanisms by which soil moisture can affect the atmosphere; (2) 'predictability' runs aimed at evaluating whether typical soil moisture initial anomalies (indicative of year-to-year variability) can have a significant effect, and if so, for how long; (3) 'threshold' runs aimed at evaluating if a soil moisture anomaly must be of a specific size (i.e., a threshold crossed) before a significant impact on the atmosphere is seen. The 'anomaly' runs show a large, long-lasting response in soil moisture and also quantities such as surface temperature, sea level pressure, and precipitation; effects persist for at least a year. The 'predictability' runs, on the other hand, show very little impact of the initial soil moisture anomalies on the subsequent evolution of soil moisture and other atmospheric parameters; internal variability is most important, with the initial state of the atmosphere (representing remote effects such as SST anomalies) playing a more minor role. The 'threshold' runs, devised to help resolve the dichotomy in 'anomaly' and 'predictability' results, suggest that, at least in CCM3/LSM, the vertical profile of soil moisture is the most important factor, and that deep soil zone anomalies exert a more powerful, long-lasting effect than do anomalies in the near surface soil zone. We therefore suggest that soil moisture feedbacks may be more important in explaining prolonged decadal to century-long droughts evident in the historic and recent prehistoric records, but less important on a seasonal to interannual time-scale.

Oglesby, Robert J.↗

DOE OSTI2020

The effects of different types of mulch on soil properties and tea production and quality

Abstract BACKGROUND Tea is an important economic crop in China. Mulching, a modern agricultural practice, can modify the soil microenvironment and maintain the crop yield. RESULTS To investigate the effect of different mulching modes on tea plant growth, filed experiments were conducted in a Shizipu tea plantation located in Langxi Country (Xuanchen City, Anhui Province, China). Five treatments were carried out in a randomized complete block arrangement: (i) clean tillage (control); (ii) black plastic film; (iii) weed barrier fabric; (iv) rice straw mulch; and (v) intercropping with Vulpia myuros . The effects of different mulch modes on soil temperature, water moisture, soil compactness, root activity, soil enzyme activity and nutrition status on tea yield, quality and economic benefits were compared at the harvest stage. In the present study, compared with other mulch treatments, intercropping with V. myuros significantly reduced the topsoil temperature (to an optimum temperature) and soil compactness, and increased the water holding capacity in the deep soil layer, which contributed to increased tea root activity and respiration. Furthermore, intercropping with V. myuros significantly increased soil enzymes activity, soil organic matter, and the available nitrogen and phosphorus concentrations in the main root zone. Therefore, the stronger tea root activity accelerated nutrition uptake and increased the tea yield and quality‐related components of the tea, thus resulting in a larger average net income. CONCLUSION Intercropping with V. myuros could serve as a profitable agricultural method for tea production. © 2020 Society of Chemical Industry

Xianchen, Zhang↗

DOE OSTI2024

Enriched Background Isotope Study (EBIS): Analysis of 14C-Enriched Carbon Cycle in Soils and Litter at Forested Oak Ridge and AmeriFlux Sites, 2001-2011

These data provide a record of the multi-year, multi-institutional Enriched Background Isotope Studies (EBIS) projects that ran from 2000 through 2011. Elevated levels of 14C enriched CO2 in the air and soil atmosphere as well as leaf, stem, and root tissues were observed on the Oak Ridge Reservations (ORR) during the summer of 1999, and were attributed to local incinerator activities on and/or near the ORR (Trumbore et al. 2002). The isolated enrichment of the background levels of 14C in local forest ecosystem represented a unique opportunity to study unresolved carbon cycling processes such as the contribution of leaf versus root litter contributions to soil carbon accumulation, the rate of vertical transport of carbon into deep soil storage pools, and the differential contribution of physicochemical versus faunal driven processes to soil carbon cycling and sequestration. Leaf litter from the local enriched forest was transplanted to selected sites on the ORR and to selected AmeriFlux study sites to study soil C cycling across a range of soils and climates. The EBIS research projects provide data on C flux from litter sources to mineral soil sinks for United States eastern hardwood forests necessary for testing process hypotheses and judging efficacy of soil C cycling models. Experimental results from this study are being used to parameterize and refine existing carbon dynamics models, the quantification of the long-term fate of ecosystem carbon inputs and as a means to judge the potential for ecosystem carbon sequestration via enhance litter inputs to soil. EBIS observations support conclusions that intra- and inter-annual soil carbon cycling in hardwood forest soils should be characterized as a least a two-compartment system where surface leaf-litter and belowground root turnover represent primary carbon sources for organic-layer and mineral-soil carbon cycles, respectively. EBIS experiments were conducted to complete enriched litterfall maniplations in upland forests on Ultisol and Inceptisol soils of the Oak Ridge Reservation, Oak Ridge, Tennessee. We also collected additional14C-enriched materials for new experimental applications, and applied those materials to multiple AmeriFlux sites over a range of climatic, edaphic and biological conditions. The research provided data for addressing DOE's goal of understanding mechanisms controlling C flux, and for the improvement of models to be applied to policy discussions regarding the safe levels of greenhouse gases for the earth's system. There are 5 data files provided in comma separated (*.csv) format for vegetation, field litter, soil and air [C] and C isotope data from the EBIS studies and associated environmental data.

54 ENVIRONMENTAL SCIENCES↗

DOE OSTI2023

Improved net carbon budgets in the US Midwest through direct measured impacts of enhanced weathering

Abstract Terrestrial enhanced weathering (EW) through the application of Mg‐ or Ca‐rich rock dust to soil is a negative emission technology with the potential to address impacts of climate change. The effectiveness of EW was tested over 4 years by spreading ground basalt (50 t ha −1 year −1 ) on maize/soybean and miscanthus cropping systems in the Midwest US. The major elements of the carbon budget were quantified through measurements of eddy covariance, soil carbon flux, and biomass. The movement of Mg and Ca to deep soil, released by weathering, balanced by a corresponding alkalinity flux, was used to measure the drawdown of CO 2 , where the release of cations from basalt was measured as the ratio of rare earth elements to base cations in the applied rock dust and in the surface soil. Basalt application stimulated peak biomass and net primary production in both cropping systems and caused a small but significant stimulation of soil respiration. Net ecosystem carbon balance (NECB) was strongly negative for maize/soybean (−199 to −453 g C m −2 year −1 ) indicating this system was losing carbon to the atmosphere. Average EW (102 g C m −2 year −1 ) offset carbon loss in the maize/soybean by 23%–42%. NECB of miscanthus was positive (63–129 g C m −2 year −1 ), indicating carbon gain in the system, and EW greatly increased inorganic carbon storage by an additional 234 g C m −2 year −1 . Our analysis indicates a co‐deployment of a perennial biofuel crop (miscanthus) with EW leads to major wins—increased harvested yields of 29%–42% with additional carbon dioxide removal (CDR) of 8.6 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 . EW applied to maize/soybean drives a CDR of 3.7 t CO 2 ha −1 year −1 , which partially offsets well‐established carbon losses from soil from this crop rotation. EW applied in the US Midwest creates measurable improvements to the carbon budgets perennial bioenergy crops and conventional row crops.

enhanced weathering↗

NASA NTRS1978

A Radiative Transfer Model for Microwave Emission from Soils

The radiative transfer equation for an absorbing medium is used to develop a model for microwave emission from soils. The model calculates the microwave emission intensity in terms of the brightness temperature as a function of the soil moisture and temperature. The consistency of the model is verified by a comparative study of the present model with other microwave emission models. The effect of surface roughness on the brightness temperature is studied by modifying the Fresnel reflection coefficient and by including the surface depolarization effect. The quantitative effect of the surface roughness is studied and it is demonstrated that the brightness temperatures observed for a natural agricultural terrain can be explained through the inclusion of the roughness effect. The surface roughness effect is further analyzed to obtain formulae which are useful in the analysis of the brightness temperatures, particularly, to obtain soil moisture information from the brightness. temperatures. The sensitivity of the brightness temperature to the soil temperature variations is studied both qualitatively and quantitatively. A simple formula is obtained to calculate the soil temperature dependence of the brightness temperature in terms of the surface and the deep soil temperatures. An algorithm to normalize the brightness temperatures so as to compare microwave observations under different soil temperature conditions is also discussed. A program listing of the model is given in the appendix.

Choudhury, B. J.↗

DOE OSTI2025

A Greening Future Elevates Flash Drought Risk in Northern Mid‐to‐High Latitudes

Flash droughts have become a growing concern, as they can emerge rapidly and increase the risk of crop failure. Although past studies have investigated the meteorological drivers and future changes of flash drought, why flash drought is more frequent over humid and vegetated regions remains underexplored. This study delves further into the mechanism by which vegetation regulates flash drought and its future change using observations from multiple data sets and large ensemble simulations from three Earth system models. On an interannual timescale, both observations and simulations show robust increases in flash drought frequency and a higher flash-to-sub-seasonal drought ratio during spring or antecedent conditions with dense vegetation, supporting the important role of vegetation in flash drought occurrence, especially in the northern mid-to-high latitudes. In the latter regions, the large ensemble simulations show robust increases in flash drought (e.g., 67% and 46% increases in Eastern U.S. and North Asia in 2050–2100 relative to 1950–2000 under the high emission scenario), where the growing season is lengthening. Although greening might suggest reduced drought stress, it drives precipitation-soil moisture-evapotranspiration decoupling by increasing evapotranspiration partitioning to transpiration. As transpiration can access deep soil water through the plant root system, its increased portion can weaken the constraints of concurrent precipitation on evapotranspiration, thus accelerating soil moisture depletion under high evaporative demand, driving a slow-to-rapid drought transition. How vegetation regulates flash drought by regulating surface moisture budget is supported by observations and simulations. Although warming supports early planting, agriculture may increasingly be threatened by surging flash drought risk.

Drought↗