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The UCAR Africa Initiative: Recent insights, challenges, and opportunities to foster collaborative research for environmental sustainability

Africa is increasingly being exposed to the negative impacts of climate and environmental change, while having less capacity to respond compared to other continents. The vulnerability partially results from unprecedented demographic growth, urbanization, and industrialization. However, the continent has still largely been underserved by the broader Earth System Science (ESS) community, as evidenced by the limited amount of ESS data and research that cover Africa compared to other areas of the world. Here we present the recent University Corporation for Atmospheric Research (UCAR) Africa Initiative that aims to enhance environmental sustainability in Africa by fostering international collaborative research partnerships co-led by African scientists. Specifically, we outline urgent challenges and opportunities identified through an international workshop in six areas of ESS namely (1) air quality and health, (2) weather, (3) climate, (4) land and water, (5) social science perspectives, and (6) developing equitable collaboration and sustainable infrastructure. We highlight examples of successful partnerships and conclude with recommendations to advance collaborative, actionable ESS research that addresses Africa’s critical environmental challenges.

African weather and land variability↗

Consumer Preferences and Willingness to Pay for Potting Mix with Biochar

Biochar is a co-product of advanced biofuels production from feedstocks including food, agricultural, wood wastes, or dedicated energy crops. Markets for soil amendments using biochar are emerging, but little is known about consumer preferences and willingness to pay (WTP) for these products or the depth of the products’ market potential for this product. This research provides WTP estimates for potting mix amended with 25% biochar, conditioned on consumer demographics and attitudes about product information labeling. Data were collected with an online survey of 577 Tennessee home gardeners. WTP was elicited through a referendum contingent valuation. Consumer WTP for an 8.81 L bag of 25% biochar potting mix is $8.52; a premium of $3.53 over conventional potting mix. Demographics and attitudes toward biofuels and the environment influence WTP. Biochar amounts demanded are projected for the study area’s potential market. Optimal prices, profits, and market shares are estimated across different marginal costs of producing biochar potting mix.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

The 6-minute walk test predicts mortality in a pulmonary nontuberculous mycobacteria-predominant bronchiectasis cohort

Background: Bronchiectasis is a chronic lung condition frequently associated with nontuberculous mycobacteria pulmonary (NTM) disease. Persons with these conditions are at increased risk of mortality. Patient reported outcome (PRO) instruments and the 6-minute walk test (6MWT) have been shown to predict mortality for several lung conditions, but these measures have not been fully evaluated for bronchiectasis and NTM. Methods: We conducted a retrospective cohort study among adult patients enrolled in a natural history study of bronchiectasis at the National Heart, Lung, and Blood Institute. Electronic medical records were queried for demographic, clinical, microbiologic, radiographic, and PRO instrument data: St. George’s Respiratory Questionnaire (SGRQ), Medical Research Council Dyspnea Scale, and the Pulmonary Symptom Severity Score (PSSS). The study baseline date was defined as the patient’s first visit after January 1st, 2015 with a SGRQ or 6MWT completed. Follow-up was defined as the interval between the study baseline visit and date of death or December 31st, 2019. Sex-stratified Cox proportional-hazards regression was conducted to identify predictors of mortality. Separate models were run for each PRO and 6MWT measure, controlling for age, body mass index (BMI), fibrocavitary disease status, and M. abscessus infection. Results: In multivariable Cox proportional-hazards regression models, the PSSS-severity (aHR 1.29, 95% CI 1.04–1.59), the 6MWT total distance walked (aHR 0.938, 95% CI 0.896–0.981) and distance saturation product (aHR 0.930, 95% CI 0.887–0.974) independently predicted mortality. In addition, BMI was significantly predictive of mortality in all models. Conclusions: The 6MWT and a PRO instrument capturing symptom severity are independently predictive of mortality in our cohort of bronchiectasis patients.

6-minute walk test↗

Workshop on Addressing Rigor and Reproducibility in Thermal, Heterogeneous Catalysis

Heterogeneous catalysis has long served as the bedrock of the manufacturing of energy carriers, fuels and chemicals, and various technologies for pollution abatement. The significant complexity and variability spanning the entire breadth of catalyst material properties, synthesis methods, characterization techniques, and evaluation procedures, has focused attention on the need to establish community-accepted best practices for ensuring high-quality, benchmarked, and reproducible data. In addition, increased societal urgency to transition to clean energy and reduce greenhouse gas concentrations has incentivized interdisciplinary, convergent, and translational approaches to catalysis research in recent years. Research engineers and scientists with expertise cutting broadly across materials science, chemical synthesis, interfacial science, spectroscopy, and methods of data science and computational simulation, all bring diverse and important perspectives to catalysis research, but often with little awareness of the complexity of catalytic systems, especially in their working environment. As has already occurred in other scientific fields, there has been growing recognition and consensus in the heterogeneous catalysis research community that mechanisms are needed to improve the rigor and reproducibility (R&R) of experimental measurements, to ensure alignment of the broader research community with a common core of best practices specific to the realization of high-quality catalysis research. Similarly, the field is moving rapidly toward computationally informed and data science-driven catalyst design, but the success of implementing such predictive tools hinges on model training and validation rooted in rigorously obtained and reproducible experimental data that are benchmarked to common specifications. As such, this workshop was convened to prepare a report summarizing best practices for reporting data and performing experiments that researchers can use to benchmark, validate, and reproduce data in specific sub-fields of thermal, heterogeneous catalysis. Additionally, we discussed recommendations for future actions that may improve R&R in this field. The workshop organizers and participants include a diverse range of catalysis researchers from various employment sectors (e.g., academia, industry, national laboratory), institutional mission and resources (e.g., PhD-granting research universities, non-PhD-granting teaching universities), career stage (e.g., early, mid and late-career), technical expertise, and demographic background. This diverse group was involved in the discussion of workshop agenda items, writing this report, and discussing possible future action items for the community to consider, which helped ensure that a broad range of perspectives were captured in the description of the problems at hand and the creation of actionable solutions that may be effectively adopted by the diverse practitioners in catalysis research. Importantly, this group of workshop participants also included very early career researchers (e.g., senior PhD students, postdoctoral scholars) who will become the next generation of scientific leaders in various sectors, thus capturing emerging perspectives of newcomers to the field to shape its future while positively impacting the development of its future workforce. We envision that this effort will help advance the field of catalysis science by improving the rigor and reproducibility of experimental data collected by current researchers and future newcomers to the field, which is of broad importance to health and vitality of any scientific discipline. Therefore, best practices identified in this endeavor for thermal heterogeneous catalysis can be translated to such efforts in other areas of catalysis and other scientific fields involving the study of materials, and vice versa. We also envision this to be an ongoing effort, with future workshops that are convened to discuss issues of rigor and reproducibility on technical topics that were unable to be covered in this workshop due to its scope limitations, and as emerging methods and materials become more prevalent in the research community.

36 MATERIALS SCIENCE↗

Freewheeling: What Six Locations, 61,000 Trips, and 242,000 Miles in Colorado Reveal about How E-Bikes Improve Mobility Options

Personal micromobility modes such as bicycles, e-bikes and scooters offer low- or zero-emission transportation alternatives to single occupancy vehicles (SOVs). However, the lack of supporting data has led to a dearth of data-driven research on the usage of personally owned e-bikes, including variations due to weather, geography and demographics. In this paper, we present an overview of the longitudinal findings from the CanBikeCO program, focused on e-bike adoption and use rates across different demographics, trip characteristics, and geographies. The CanBikeCO program recorded travel survey data from late July 2021 to December 31, 2022, from low-income Colorado households who were provided with e-bikes for personal use by the Colorado Energy Office (CEO). This data was collected in six different communities across Colorado following the mini-pilot program that was conducted in Fall 2020. To collect data for the survey, the program used the NREL OpenPATH application, which combines passive data collection with semantic information such as trip mode and purpose labels. To the best of our knowledge, there is no prior travel survey data on personally owned e-bikes with this range and scope. This unique dataset yielded several insights. One is that commute trips among participants had nearly 17% higher shares of e-bikes than all trips combined. E-bikes were stated to most often replace cars (34% of e-bike trips) and personal micromobility (22%). Participants favored walking for trips less than 1 mile, e-bikes for trips 1-3 miles, and e-bikes, cars or shared rides for trips 3-20 miles. Seasonality accounted for a 10% decrease and subsequent recovery in e-bike mileage on a per user basis. E-bikes are also appealing across age groups, even among older individuals, and see decreased utilization similar to regular bikes or walking during winter months. We also find that e-bike use may be related to characteristics of land use and urban form, occupation and income as well as household car ownership. We conclude that, for this population, who are mainly part of low-income households, the emissions added by the use of e-bikes (in the case of replacement of non-motorized modes) are outweighed by the strong single occupancy vehicle (SOV) travel replacement. As a whole, our findings suggest a considerable potential for energy savings and emissions reductions from personal e-bike ownership.

ADVANCED PROPULSION SYSTEMS↗

A dataset for understanding self-reported patterns influencing residential energy decisions

Household occupant behavior and decision-making dynamics substantially impact technology uptake and residential building energy performance. Although significant research underscores the importance of social science in energy studies, few public data with representative samples on household energy decision-making patterns are available. The dataset (UPGRADE-E: Understanding Patterns Guiding Residential Adoption and Decisions about Energy Efficiency) presents 9,919 responses from U.S. residents of single-family and small multifamily homes. Derived from a national-scale internet survey, the dataset contains 391 variables: demographics, building characteristics, home modifications, willingness to adopt new technologies, motivations for making changes, barriers, program participation, trusted information sources, and energy scenarios. Responses were validated via internal consistency checks and comparison with other U.S. national scale datasets. UPGRADE-E advances knowledge of household energy related decision-making, tying demographics, home modifications, and self-reported cognitive drivers together at a scale and breadth that has not been previously achieved. Policymakers and researchers at local, regional, and national levels may leverage this dataset to understand drivers influencing the adoption of key technologies in U.S. homes.

32 ENERGY CONSERVATION, CONSUMPTION, AND UTILIZATI↗

Challenges and opportunities for alternative fuels in the maritime sector

Amidst a period of historic transformation, the marine shipping sector faces uncertainty regarding its ability to reliably fuel while remaining compliant with new international environmental regulations and targets. Increasingly stringent environmental standards, and heightened regulatory focus on maritime decarbonization are driving infrastructural and technical development for alternative fuels and mixtures, engine concepts, and operating practices. However, the transition to alternative fueling is highly complex and requires both a global outlook that spans diverse stakeholder demographics and coordination with multiple actors across the value chain. To aid stakeholders involved in decision making and research related to the transition, a scoping study was conducted with the goal of outlining the barriers, uncertainties, and possibilities in the short and long term for the transition. Synthesis of these results provides strategic decision support, technical direction, and a set of R&D priorities for maritime stakeholders and the scientific community.

09 BIOMASS FUELS↗

Tau PET positivity in individuals with and without cognitive impairment varies with age, amyloid-β status, APOE genotype and sex

Abstract Tau positron emission tomography (PET) imaging allows in vivo detection of tau proteinopathy in Alzheimer’s disease, which is associated with neurodegeneration and cognitive decline. Understanding how demographic, clinical and genetic factors relate to tau PET positivity will facilitate its use for clinical practice and research. Here we conducted an analysis of 42 cohorts worldwide (N = 12,048), including 7,394 cognitively unimpaired (CU) participants, 2,177 participants with mild cognitive impairment (MCI) and 2,477 participants with dementia. We found that from age 60 years to 80 years, tau PET positivity in a temporal composite region increased from 1.1% to 4.4% among CU amyloid-β (Aβ)-negative participants and from 17.4% to 22.2% among CU Aβ-positive participants. Across the same age span, tau PET positivity decreased from 68.0% to 52.9% in participants with MCI and from 91.5% to 74.6% in participants with dementia. Age, Aβ status,APOEε4 carriership and female sex were all associated with a higher prevalence of tau PET positivity across groups.APOEε4 carriership in CU individuals lowered the age at onset of both Aβ positivity and tau positivity by decades. Finally, we replicated these associations in an independent autopsy dataset (N = 5,072 from 3 cohorts).

Neurosciences & Neurology↗

The Value of Diversity in the Renewable Energy Industry and Research Community

Part of creating a successful solar industry is developing a capable workforce. It has been repeatedly shown that organizations and companies are more productive when they have diverse and inclusive cultures. The solar industry in the U.S. performs well in some aspects (non-white workforce, positive work environment) but drastically under-performs in many others. We discuss these metrics and how this impacts the renewable energy industry and the solar research community. We highlight some initial actions which are necessary to begin to remediate these deficiencies, such as demographic tracking, recruiting strategies, and mentoring. We also present the historical and ongoing efforts to improve the diversity and inclusion of the Photovoltaic Specialists Conference, particularly through the work of this year’s Diversity and Inclusion (D&I) oversight committee. This year’s D&I committee is implementing diversity tracking, a women’s lunch, a diversity lunch, childcare resources, pronouns on badges, gender-neutral restrooms, addressing accessibility issues, and publishing a diversity statement and code of conduct to the PVSC website.

diversity↗

Developing a Process for Collaboration-Based Siting of a Federal Consolidated Interim Storage Facility in the United States: Learning from Communities Living with Legacy Waste

In June of 2023, the U.S. Department of Energy (DOE), Office of Nuclear Energy (NE) announced the selection of its Collaboration-Based Siting (CBS) Consortia, a group of 12 awardees, including the Consortium for Risk Evaluation with Stakeholder Participation (CRESP) (led by Vanderbilt University) to assist DOE-NE with the development of its process for siting a federal consolidated interim storage facility (FCISF) for spent nuclear fuel (SNF) storage. At this time, DOE NE is not soliciting interested host communities, rather the CBS Consortia are tasked with in-depth engagement, mutual learning, and capacity building to provide DOE NE with feedback on the CBS process. CRESP’s objective is to engage communities in two regions (the Pacific Northwest and the Southeast) with sites currently storing defense- and research-related SNF to foster learning concerning the best and worst practices in community participation in risk-informed decision making. This includes learning from existing structures for public input in radioactive waste management decision making [e.g. citizen advisory boards (CABs)] and other local parties about how to build and sustain trust among the parties. CRESP has been working to engage stakeholders and Tribes surrounding two DOE sites historically differing in receptiveness to engaging with DOE and trusting in DOE to accomplish its missions. CRESP’s approach to date has consisted of (1) engaging voluntarily members and former members of the DOE Office of Environmental Management’s CABs to develop a mutual understanding of their perspectives, values, and experiences related to risk and participatory decision making; (2) engaging members of those communities that would likely be part of any radioactive waste management discussions and who may provide valuable feedback for the development of the CBS process; and in the longer term, (3) engaging communities to foster knowledge sharing on understanding and definitions of risk and how risk is factored into community decision making. Our emphasis is to identify opportunities for improving risk communication frameworks, strategies, and decision making. The selection of a future FCISF site is likely to result in the creation of a structure similar to a CAB composed of members of the local community. We anticipate that these insights can help DOE NE learn from existing participatory risk communication structures in place at sites storing defenseor research-related SNF to understand best practices for fostering enduring and participatory relationships with future CABs. Within this paper, we (1) describe CRESP’s overall approach to assisting DOE NE with maturing the CBS process; (2) present a summary of preliminary phase 1 project results, including the development of a body of knowledge (describing available resources to support community engagement, risk communica tion, and participatory decision making) and community ecosystem information (leveraging demographic, social, economic, and environmental attribute mapping and advanced sentiment analysis of social media data); and (3) based on these results, provide observations for future research opportunities to support the development of CBS processes for radioactive waste management facilities, generally.

collaboration-based siting↗

DEMOS (Demographic Microsimulator Tool for Longitudinal Synthetic Population) [SWR-25-135] related to NLR SWR-26-076

The Demographic Microsimulator (DEMOS) is an agent-based simulation framework used to model the evolution of population demographic characteristics and lifecycle events, such as education attainment, marital status, and other key transitions. DEMOS modules are designed to capture the interdependencies between short-term and long-term lifecycle events, which are often influential in downstream transportation and land-use modeling. A key feature of DEMOS is its ability to track changes in an agent’s demographic status from year t to year t + 1. This structure allows the model to evolve populations over any user-defined time horizon. As a result, DEMOS is well suited for analyzing medium- and long-term transportation-related decisions, including household vehicle transactions (e.g., purchasing, selling, or replacing vehicles) and work location choices. Core features of DEMOS include the modeling of more than ten lifecycle events, behaviorally realistic patterns informed by long-running panel data, explicit representation of interdependencies among lifecycle processes, and a flexible, modular simulation architecture. A technical memorandum describing DEMOS is available here. The memorandum provides an overview of the framework’s functionality, model structure, input and output data, and its applications in transportation planning and broader policy analysis contexts. Interested readers are also encouraged to consult the paper listed below for additional details on the DEMOS methodology. Sun, Bingrong, Shivam Sharda, Venu M. Garikapati, Mohamed Amine Bouzaghrane, Juan Caicedo, Srinath Ravulaparthy, Isabel Viegas de Lima, Ling Jin, C. Anna Spurlock, and Paul Waddell. "Demographic Microsimulator for Integrated Urban Systems: Adapting Panel Survey of Income Dynamics to Capture the Continuum of Life." Transportation Research Record (2025): 03611981251333339.

Sun, Bingrong [National Laboratory of the Rockies ↗

1996 Bay Area Travel Study Wave 2

The 1996 Bay Area Travel Study, conducted by the Metropolitan Transportation Commssion, collected demographic, socioeconomic, and travel data for 3,618 households in California's nine-county Bay Area: Alameda, Contra Costa, Marin, Napa, San Francisco, San Mateo, Santa Clara, Solano, and Sonoma counties. The goal of the study was to collect information on activities for all people in each household, regardless of age or relationship. Respondents were asked to record all activities, including trips, over a two-day period. The data gathered during the survey will be used for the area's long-term transportation and air quality planning needs. The survey collected both weekday and weekend multi-day data and was the first activity-based survey conducted in the Bay Area. It also included separate sub-projects. A stated preference congestion pricing survey was administered to 150 of the respondents with a follow-up survey conducted with 110 participants. A follow-up survey was also completed by over half of the 3,618 respondent households to update contact and demographic information. These participants were then used as a panel sample for the 2000 Bay Area Travel Survey (NuStats Research and Consulting 1999).

1Hz data↗

Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (Final Report)

This is the final technical report for the DOE EERE BTO project Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau. The project implemented a community energy campaign to deploy heat pumps and efficiency for residents of Juneau, in Southeast Alaska. The project helped Juneau make progress towards its renewable energy goal of reaching 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045. The Incentivizing Cold-Climate Efficiency in Juneau (ICE-Juneau) project began in 2020 and concluded three years later in 2023. During that time, a group of implementation partners and a research advisory team instituted a beneficial electrification campaign to promote energy savings and carbon reduction in residences of Juneau, Alaska. The campaign, Thermalize Juneau, focused on the installation of single head ductless mini-split heat pumps along with other efficiency upgrades. Thermalize Juneau was the first campaign of its kind in Alaska. After several months of planning, registration opened to the public in early 2021, and over the course of six months 164 participants enrolled. Campaign staff provided education to homeowners on heat pumps and efficiency, and each participant received a one-on-one heat pump assessment using a custom Microsoft Excel-based calculator that estimated energy savings for their residence based on building characteristics and past utility bills. Participants could also obtain a free energy audit from one of the two local energy auditors to further inform their decision. A heat pump installer, electrician, and builder were selected via a competitive RFP process. Participants who felt ready to install a heat pump or other efficiency upgrades received a site visit and custom quote from each of these contractors free of charge, and if they still felt energy upgrades were right for them, could move forward with an individual contract. Participants received a $400 heat pump installation rebate, offered by the installer if 40 heat pump installations occurred through the campaign. Overall, the campaign facilitated 75 heat pump installations (including participants that went with another contractor or heat pump model) and 30 efficiency upgrades (including participants that went with another builder or did DIY upgrades). The campaign created 3 new jobs as the heat pump installer hired an administrative assistant and two apprentices over the course of the campaign. It also helped Juneau work toward achieving its renewable energy goal of 80% renewable energy for space heating by 2045 by upgrading houses from fuel oil to heat pumps powered by the hydropower electric grid. Researchers conducted four surveys to inform Thermalize Juneau and future energy campaigns. The first surveyed existing and prospective heat pump owners in Juneau to identify barriers the campaign could address and inform recruitment efforts. Entry and exit surveys provided information on participant demographics, goals, outcomes, and suggestions for improving future campaigns. And a final survey of community members who had not participated in Thermalize Juneau gave insight on ways future campaigns could include a greater diversity of participants so they could realize similar benefits. Researchers also used pre-campaign energy modeling to predict energy savings, which was then compared to the savings estimated through aggregation of heat pump assessments and energy audits, and later to actual energy savings of 10 participants who installed a heat pump and were able to provide complete energy use data sets. In addition to energy savings, and to assist the electric utility in future planning efforts, researchers analyzed the overall change in electric use across participants with energy data and heat pump installations. They also completed a life cycle cost analysis, showing positive net present values for those displacing a fuel oil appliance, and a more mixed case for those switching from electric baseboard. This project proved the feasibility of energy campaigns, with a goal of beneficial electrification, in cold, remote locations. The Thermalize Juneau team compiled a Guidebook to Thermalize Campaigns, available online. In addition to documenting what occurred in Alaska’s first thermalize campaign, it provides tips and resources for other communities wishing to implement a similar program.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗

Effects of volitional emigration timing and smolt size on survival and age-at-return in a Pacific salmon hatchery population

Abstract Many Pacific salmon populations are returning from sea at younger ages and smaller sizes. Hatchery culture, management practices, and environmental factors influence juvenile release size and emigration timing, which in turn affect important demographic characteristics in returning adults. We analyzed data from approximately 345,000 tagged spring Chinook Salmon juveniles exiting Cle Elum Supplementation and Research Facility (Yakima River, Washington, USA) acclimation sites over thirteen brood years (2002–2014), evaluating smolt size, emigration timing, river flow, juvenile survival, and age-at-return. We observed a relationship between size and volitional exit timing of smolts from acclimation sites, with larger fish tending to emigrate earlier than smaller fish. Early emigration was also coincident with lower river flows near acclimation sites. Later emigration timing was correlated with an increase in apparent survival of juveniles to Bonneville Dam (500–530 km downstream of acclimation sites), but also with a lower rate of survival to return from sea. In general, for juveniles successfully emigrating downstream of Bonneville Dam, age-at-return increased with decreasing juvenile fish size and later emigration timing. Our results support a growing body of evidence that hatchery practices may result in larger smolts that tend to return at younger ages. Given the biological and economic consequences of younger age-at-maturation, methods to reverse this trend should be further explored and implemented.

Bosch, William J. (ORCID:0000000300447390)↗

Quantifying and Understanding the Access Time to Dockless Micromobility: A Case Study in Washington, D.C.

Micromobility has been widely deployed in many cities. Similar as how access time/distance affects the travel demand to use public transit and informs transit system design, access time/distance to micromobility service measures its service efficiency and also serves as an equity indicator to inform city agencies from a regulation perspective. Though there is an increasing need to understand it, access to micromobility has not been sufficiently studied. This paper developed a framework to quantity the access time to dockless micromobility service (i.e., the minimum time needed to walk to reach the closest dockless micromobility vehicles). Based on the real-time vehicle location data collected from Washington, DC, this research quantified the access time to dockless micromobility, analyzed its spatial and temporal variation patterns and investigated its relationship with socio-demographic variables (i.e., population density, employment density and low-income population). The results revealed that the access time to dockless micromobility ranges between 0 to 4 minutes with the most frequently observed range of 0.5 to 1 minutes, and the city center area tends to have shorter access time than the outskirts areas. Results also indicate a quite stable access time level in DC with access time standard deviation of 0.2 to 0.5 minutes. After correlating the access time at census-block-group level with socio-demographic data, it was discovered that shorter access time usually aligns with larger population and employment density, and the proportion of low-income population was found not helpful with explaining the access time variation, which indicating a relatively equitable micromobility program.

access time↗

A comparison between residential relocation timing of Sydney and Chicago residents: A Bayesian survival analysis

We report that understanding households' behaviour in residential relocation timing is of great importance in the field of transport engineering and economics. This research aims to develop a residential relocation model by considering the potential dynamic impacts of other households' decisions and variables, including economic and demographic attributes, housing features, intra-household decision-making structures, travel mode choice, and other life-course attributes. A multivariate parametric survival model with both fixed and time-varying covariates is developed. To the best of the authors' knowledge, this study is the first paper in the literature of residential relocation timing to propose the use of a Bayesian model in contrast to the widely used classic frequentist approach and have conducted a discussion on its advantages. An emerging residential relocation dataset collected for two cities in Australia and the USA (Sydney and Chicago cities) has been used, which covers residence, vehicle ownership, occupation, education, economic and demographic attributes of respondents. A comprehensive comparison between the results of two cities and a comparison between two Bayesian and frequentist approaches are made. This study confirms the impact of life-course variables, intra-household decision-making behaviours, and sociodemographic attributes on home mobility. According to the model outputs, the accelerating or decelerating impact of explanatory variables on the relocation timing has been almost the same in the two cities. The Bayesian model was confirmed to have some advantages over the frequentist model, including being straightforward to interpret, availability of making inferences on the results, and ease of handling complex models, and optimisation convergence complexities.

99 GENERAL AND MISCELLANEOUS↗

Exploring how urban form and demographics are linked with pedestrian and bicycle safety

With pedestrian and bicycle safety as the focus, this study investigates the role of urban form, burdened communities (BCs), and demographics at the national level. Urban form can contribute to segregation, limiting access to crucial resources such as safe infrastructure, essential services, and economic opportunities. Leveraging recent data, this research applies six key indicators to identify BCs based on various socioeconomic and environmental factors. Here, the study creates a unique database combining 10 years of pedestrian-bicycle-involved fatal crashes with data for the 71,729 census tracts with burden indicators and census data. The data are analyzed using descriptives and rigorous zero-hurdle negative binomial models, which account for excessive zeros observed in the data. The inference-based analysis results reveal a positive correlation between burden indicators and pedestrian-bicycle-involved fatal crash occurrences, alongside a heightened risk in areas with high-intensity development. Higher Black, American Indian, or Alaska Native populations are associated with more fatal crashes. The study offers novel insights into safety dynamics across different contexts characterized by urban forms, BCs, and demographics. The study underscores the importance of targeted interventions to enhance pedestrian and bicycle safety.

bicycle crashes↗

The CanBikeCO Full Pilot: Long-Term Results and Analysis From an E-Bike Program in Colorado, USA

Personal micromobility devices like bicycles, e-bikes, and scooters are low- or zero-energy alternatives to single-occupancy vehicles. However, a lack of data has led to a dearth of data-driven research on personally owned e-bike usage. We present longitudinal findings from the CanBikeCO program, focused on e-bike adoption and use across demographics, trip characteristics, and geographies in the state of Colorado. CanBikeCO recorded travel survey data from low-income individuals provided with personal e-bikes by the Colorado Energy Office in six communities across Colorado from July 2021 to December 2022. The data were collected using a custom instance of the National Renewable Energy Laboratory OpenPATH platform, which combines passive data collection with semantic information such as trip mode and purpose labels. To our knowledge, there are no prior travel survey data on personally owned e-bikes with this range and scope. Insights from this unique dataset include: (i) work trips were 17% more likely than average trips to be taken on an e-bike, (ii) e-bikes were most often reported to replace cars (34% of e-bike trips) and other personal micromobility devices (22%), and (iii) participants favored walking for trips less than 1 mile, e-bikes for trips of 1-3 miles, and e-bikes, cars, or shared rides for trips of 3-20 miles. The data used to generate these results have been made available in the Transportation Secure Data Center. We find e-bike use is appealing across age groups and may be related to characteristics of land use, urban form, occupation, income, and car ownership. We conclude for this population that the energy demand added by e-bike use (induced demand and replacing non-motorized modes) is outweighed by the reduction in energy demand from replacement of single-occupancy vehicle trips with e-bike trips. Our findings suggest considerable potential for energy savings from personal e-bike ownership.

29 ENERGY PLANNING, POLICY, AND ECONOMY↗